The Ragnarok

That Looked Good

2009-09-01T08:53:00.003-05:00

All in all, a solid preseason effort. The Vikings improved to 3-0 (right, it doesn't matter, but I remember the 1998 Vikings going 4-0 in the preseason, so I'm going to pretend it's a good sign), the starters scored 17 points in a half, a vintage Purple Jesus run out of the gates (and to the right side!) and the defense looked pretty solid against what is likely to be one of the best offenses in the NFL. A few more thoughts:

The Vikings have racked up 36 penalties for 251 yards so far in the preseason. Now, obviously not all of those were from the starters, but considering they were called for 8 penalties for 60 yards in the first half (one of which was an offsetting unnecessary roughness penalty on Ray Edwards) it's not a good sign. Then again, the Vikings were only 17th overall in penalty yards and 16th in penalties, so it might not be that big of a deal.

Am I excited about having a competent right tackle? You bet. Purple Jesus probably doesn't go 75 yards to start the game with Ryan Cook there. With Phil Loadholt opening up the cutback lane? 75 yards to the House. (Though, it probably doesn't hurt that Peterson hit 23 miles per hour to leave the Texans in his dust. And yes, that's a ridiculous speed, especially when you consider he didn't even look like he was trying.)

I wasn't particularly impressed by the Wildcat plays. Now, I understand the Vikings aren't going to debut the entire package in the 3rd preseason game, but is it really necessary to line up Harvin in the shotgun so he can either hand the ball off to Peterson for a relatively nondescript 5 yard gain or fake the hand off and run off tackle where his 40 year old quarterback is going to fling himself (sometimes illegally!) into defenders and get hurt?

On QB#4's block: In theory, I like the fact that he's willing to block for his teammates (IN THEORY--Communism works IN THEORY). In reality, however, I don't like the fact that our brittle, about to be 40 year old quarterback is throwing himself into defenders, especially considering that he was telling the press about his self diagnosed cracked ribs earlier today. And I especially don't like the fact that he's flinging himself into defenders knees. And no, QB#4, it's not ok because ""... [you]'ll be 40 years old in October and was weeding 13 days ago." Please never, ever, ever use the fact that you skipped training camp as an excuse again. That was your decision.

The Purple ran a lot of screens last night. I like the idea of Adrian Peterson in space with lead blockers, and Chester Taylor has clearly shown that he can make things happen after he catches a pass (Something, I think, Eugene Wilson can attest to). I also like the fact that Childress is showing the screens in the preseason. If the Purple can establish themselves as a team that runs the screen well, it's going to really help QB#4 and the offensive line out, by forcing opponents' pass rush to slow down in order to account for the screen.

And, I hate to admit it, but QB#4 played well yesterday, aside from the illegal crack back and taking a bad sack on 3rd and 2. The Texans defense isn't the Steelers' (or Ravens' or Vikings'), but it was good to know that the fact he skipped training camp hasn't held him back that much. He averaged 6.5 yards per attempt without Bernard Berrian (and including the fact that Percy Harvin should have caught Favre's throw in the corner of the end zone). That's a full half yard more than the Vikings' 5.97 yards per pass attempt last year and would have placed the Vikings 12th in the NFL instead of 18th. It was just one game, but I think we all know that the thing keeping the Vikings from being a legitimate Super Bowl contender has been their passing game. I'm not going to get excited just yet (and remember, QB#4 doesn't do the Vikings' any good if he collapses in the final weeks of the season), but it's a good sign.

The "Schism" Is No Reason to Be Concerned...Yet

2009-08-27T12:17:00.003-05:00

As you have probably heard, there seems to be a schism in the Vikings' locker room. And you know how much that matters at the moment? Not at all.

QB#4 is the starting quarterback. Are there some hard feelings about the way he joined the team? Most likely. Does most of the locker room want either Sage Rosenfels or the Tarvaris Revolution to be the starting quarterback right now? Probably.

But, as Matt Bowen at the National Football Post points out, that's what happens when special circumstances happen. And there will likely be some hard feelings about those special circumstances, but as the great football mind Brad Childress (heh) said, "Business is business". And football is a business. If the Vikings, and QB#4 are successful, none of this is going to matter. Honestly, if QB#4 comes out and plays well against the Texans, the controversy probably goes away--having a long track record of success tends to get you the benefit of the doubt that preseason success will lead to regular season success.

And even if he doesn't play all that well, he has some built in excuses that'll buy time until the regular season (you know, the whole "less than two weeks of practice time" excuse that he created for himself). Of course, if the Vikings and / or QB#4 stumble in the first four games of the regular season, well, then things could get ugly. Special treatment isn't a big deal if the team is successful, but if it isn't, it can lead to a whole lot of problems, many of which can lead to even more problems. But there's no chance of that ever happening, right?

More on the Uncapped Year

2009-08-26T11:25:00.003-05:00

Football Outsiders has an article going into a little more detail on the implications of 2010 being an uncapped year, as Luft mentioned in the comments of my post on the Vikings quarterback roster issues. I assume the Vikings have a good idea of whether 2010 will be an uncapped year. If it's going to be (which seems to be likely), then it would be a huge mistake for them to cut or trade Tarvaris Jackson (unless, of course, someone blows them away with a trade offer).

The Tarvaris Conundrum

2009-08-25T09:40:00.003-05:00

Filling the third quarterback position rarely seems all that important. Most of the time, whichever quarterback a team has drafted in the mid to late rounds that year or the year before gets the slot. Usually, any debate about which QB should get the roster spot is largely academic, only mattering to the hard core fans, the players involved in the competition, the coaches, the dreamers and me.

This year, however, things are a little different. In a repeat of 2001, when third stringer Spergon Wynn started two games and played in three, there's a distinct possibility that the Vikings will need to call on their third string quarterback. When you consider that QB#4 is turning 40 years old this year and is playing with a partially torn rotator cuff (which, I'm glad to see, the Vikings are being very careful with) and that Sage Rosenfels has never started more than five games in a season (and thus has never shown the ability to handle more games without getting hurt), it's not unreasonable to want a quarterback that can step in and win games for the Vikings. This isn't 2001--the Vikings expect to make the playoffs this year and they should plan accordingly.

Of course, that would mean keeping Tarvaris around as the 3rd quarterback. While Tarvaris had some of the same issues on Friday as he did last year, he looked very good against the Chiefs second stringers and, apparently, he's starting to recognize the blitz and react accordingly. Is that enough to win him the starting job? Not even close, nor is it enough to win him the back up job, but the Vikings can win games with Tarvaris under center (maybe not playoff games, but regular season games, at least). The problem with keeping Tarvaris around, though, is twofold: first, he's still got supporters in the locker room and secondly, that he's an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season. The first problem probably isn't that much of a problem, assuming, of course, that QB#4 starts to play well. Winning solves a lot of problems, including quarterback controversies (even if they're only minor ones in the locker room).

The second problem is a little more troubling for the Vikings' long term. Tarvaris isn't going to be in Purple next year, whether or not you keep him on the roster this season. One assumes he'll try and get on a roster where he feels he has a chance to start (and let's be honest--there are franchises willing to give him a shot at the starting job), which he doesn't so long as Sage Rosenfels is in Purple. And with QB #4 being a one year solution (please) and Rosenfels only signed through next year (and the Vikings should not be offering him an extension unless he gets a significant amount of time starting this year), cutting Booty would leave the Vikings with one quarterback going into 2010 and no quarterbacks under contract in 2011. Booty is currently signed through 2012, but if you cut him, that really doesn't matter, does it?

And so the Vikings are left with a dilemma: do they make their roster decisions based on their needs this year or long term? Keeping Tarvaris and cutting Booty is the right decision for this year, but for 2010 and 2011, keeping Booty and cutting Tarvaris (or trading him) is the right choice.

20 Days Till The Season

2009-08-24T13:32:00.002-05:00

Since the Vikings are taking the day off (because, you know, they've all had more then enough time to practice), I thought everyone would appreciate the latest Viking related Youtube sensation:

AHHHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHA

I hate this season already.

Thoughts on QB #4's Debut (and the Vikings)

2009-08-22T16:29:00.004-05:00

I watched the NFL Network replay of the first half of the DEBUT OF QB #4 (I've decided, for my own sanity, to only refer to him as QB #4, kind of like how NCAA video games work, or how NBA video games never had Michael Jordan, but always had #23 on the Bulls). I do have to say, it got me excited for the season. And not because QB #4 looked like a guy whose first NFL workout (and practice) was on Tuesday. Luckily, he has lots of time before the season starts (Oh wait). A few other thoughts:

The pass rush looked dominant today. Which is especially amazing because neither Pat Williams or Jared Allen suited up. Fred Evans had a couple of plays where he just pushed the Chiefs center into Cassel, and Robison and Edwards both did a good job on the edge. Defensive line depth is a huge part of a successful defense, and it looks like the Vikings are deep in the front four. Sweet.

E.J. Henderson looks like the stud I remember and Chad Greenway matched him play for play. They paired up to force a field goal in the first quarter with two great plays in the first quarter. On 1st Down, the Chiefs handed off to Larry Johnson going off tackle. E.J. shed a block in the middle of the field and closed (and when I say "closed", I mean he he beat LJ to the spot he was going) to meet Johnson at the line of scrimmage for no gain. After a 9 yard gain on a pass play, Greenway slipped through the line (and I rewound the play three times and still didn't see the line in the hole he got through) and stuffed LJ for no gain on 3rd and 1, forcing the Chiefs to kick a field goal. Let's see here. Stud defensive linemen. Quality depth behind the studs. And Stud Linebackers? The Vikings are going to be fun to watch on defensive this year.

Percy Harvin looks like he's going to be dangerous. I'm not sure if he's going to be, but he really looks like he can be. Harvin is Purple Jesus fast. And he had a nice catch with two Chiefs draped all over him for QB #4's only completion. If Harvin turns out to be as dangerous as he looks, the offense could be one of the best in the NFL, assuming the quarterback play is up to par.

Tarvaris Jackson had good stats, but most of them came after the Chiefs' first teamers came out. He threw off his back foot under pressure, made a horrible decision to throw a pass 4 yards past the line of scrimmage despite having lots of room to run and generally looked a lot like the Tarvaris Jackson from last year--good enough to allow the Vikings to win games, but not in the playoffs.

Naufahu Tahi is awful. He can't block (he missed a block on the Chief that tackled Peterson on 4th and 1 on the Vikings' first drive), he can't run routes (it was as much his fault as QB #4's that the Vikings' first pass play was an incompletion) and even if he does catch the ball, he's not going to get any yards after the catch. I can't believe the Vikings can't find a better fullback then him, because he's not an NFL caliber player.

This Thing Still On?

2009-08-21T10:22:00.004-05:00

What? Brett Favre skipped off season workouts and Training Camp and everyone welcomed him with open arms (well...not everyone, but you know what I'm saying).

So it's been a while. Since May apparently. One of the biggest keys to running a blog is definitely to continue to write. You lose your posting groove and suddenly it's August 21st and you haven't posted since May. And, yes, I blame my lack of motivation on Brett Favre. (In fact, if I were you, I'd be prepared to read a lot of posts that blame Brett Favre this year--that man is going to get no mercy from me. I might be willing to give him credit where credit is due, but he will receive no quarter and no mercy when he plays poorly.)

Big Daddy Drew puts the way I feel the best. This season isn't going to be very fun. Success will be Favre's (and I hate Favre. Hate. Hate. Hate. Doesn't matter that he's in Purple. Even if I'm rooting for laundry, I'm not going to root for the laundry he's wearing.) and failure (which, since the Purple sold their soul to get Favre, is anything that doesn't involve a Super Bowl trophy) will be the Vikings'. So yeah. Good times.

The thing is, I was just starting to talk myself into Sage Rosenfels (or as I like to call him, Trent Dilfer Jr.). His stats looked good against Indianapolis (You be quiet with your "they weren't playing their starters"--if I wanted to be reasonable, I wouldn't have been talking myself into Rosenfels). And even more importantly, I was excited for the Vikings' defense to be at full strength. Remember how good the Purple's defense was last year (Football Outsiders had them as the 4th best defense in the NFL)? Remember how they were that good despite missing their Pro Bowl middle linebacker for the entire season? Remember how their starting safety missed the first seven games and their Pro Bowl nose tackle missed the last two games and the playoff game? And remember how none of those players are hurt at the moment (barring the resolution to the Williams' Suspension Trials). The Vikings defense is going to be ridiculous this year. They're going to chew offenses up and spit them out. I don't have the skills to properly describe what they're capable of doing, but if I did, it'd be roughly equivalent to multiplying the destructive force of the Mega Bear and the Mega Lion.

And then, of course, there's the offense, which, not including Brett Favre, should be ridiculously fun. Can you say offensive weapons? Because I can, and I'm pronouncing it "Purple Jesus, Chester Taylor, Percy Harvin, Bernard Berrian and Visanthe Shiancoe". Really, the big question marks are where they were last year--under center and everyone to the right of Steve Hutchinson. Except that, unlike last year, the Vikings were actually proactive, drafting Phil Loadholt and acquiring two new quarterbacks (ahem).

Honestly, if it weren't for the whole Brett Favre thing, I'd be ridiculously excited for the upcoming season. So, I'm mainly planning on pretending that's not Favre under center (it'll be hard, I know) and focusing my rube excitment on the Purple People Eaters v. 2 and the weapons surrounding QB #4. And if John Sullivan or Phil Loadholt blow an assignment and Favre gets knocked out for the season, well, those things happen, you know?

Reusse Gets It Right

2009-05-09T09:14:00.002-05:00

Reusse's column today perfectly expresses my expectations for how the Vikings' flirtation with Favre will play out and why.

Let's Drag This Out A Bit

2009-05-07T10:38:00.003-05:00

So, apparently Childress did not go to Mississippi yesterday. Which is good, because I much prefer this drag out as long as possible. Making a decision is for people that don’t enjoy the game as much Favre does.

A couple more thoughts:

• If I believed Favre would be willing to step into the “game manager” role as quarterback, I might be a little more ok with this. But I don't. Favre doesn't just want to win--he wants to be the reason for the victory. Favre averaged 32.6 passes a game last year, and he’s only had one year where he averaged less than 31 attempts a game. He’s also notorious for being a “gun slinger” that tries to “make plays”. And he threw a league leading 22 interceptions last year. You do the math.

• One positive thing that would happen if Favre signs and Childress shifts the focus of the offense to the passing game—less wear and tear on Adrian Peterson. Peterson had 383 attempts last year (including the playoff game), and, as we all know, running backs break if you use them too much. Favre 32.6 passes a game came despite having Thomas Jones in the backfield with him. Jones was one of the most effective backs in the league last year, rushing for 1312 yards on only 290 carries while racking up the 5th most DYAR among running backs and the 7th best DVOA. His DYAR and DVOA were both better than Peterson's.

• I can’t believe that people are actually worried that Favre’s decision to play is motivated by revenge instead of his “love of the game”. I’m really going to hate this season.

Killing Time: Please Don't Let This Happen

2009-05-06T15:31:00.003-05:00

So Brad Childress is well on his way to Mississippi to meet with Favre. Blerckkkk

I still have hope though (which, if you combined with 3 parts cynicism and 2 parts bitterness gives you exactly what you need to root for the Vikings). They're going to make demands of the Ol' Gunslinger. Unreasonable ones at that. And by unreasonable, I mean, demands that any other human being would find perfectly reasonable, like the requirement that he get in shape, come to voluntary team activities to learn the offense and generally act like a member of the team. So maybe Favre will turn down Childress. I mean, if anyone can out stubborn Favre, it's got to be Childress, right? Right?? Please???

More on Favre:

Big Daddy Drew perfectly sums up every Vikings fan's feelings on what's about to happen.

More lamentations from the Daily Norseman.

Cold, Hard Football Facts points out the statistical reasons for Favre to play one more year (That's right folks--he could break Jim Marshall's consecutive start streak this year, while wearing a Vikings' jersey. If this happens, I will no longer care if the Vikings move to L.A.)

Kevin Seifert and Scouts, Inc. chime in on ESPN. (H/T Grant's Tomb)

Michael Lombardi doesn't understand why the Vikings are willing to put up with Favre's attitude when they weren't willing to put up with Jay Cutler's (excuse me while I slam my head into a door to dull the pain).

Don Banks calls the whole situation "sad and pathetic". And he's right.

Ugh

2009-05-04T11:55:00.002-05:00

Let's see here. Free agency wasn't exciting. The Vikings' draft class wasn't the type that puts a pep in your step (Do people actually say that, or did I just pull that out of nowhere?), mainly because I don't trust our coaching staff or quarterbacks to take advantage of the high risk/high reward players that were taken (not to mention the whole "hospitalization" thing that just happened to Percy Harvin). And now the Favre story is back.

Ugh.

Pacifist Viking thinks it's happening. Jason Winter shows why it's not a good idea. And I'm sitting here trying to decide which is less painful to think about--selling out to get a mediocre Favre in Purple (he's not the answer at QB this year anymore than Sage Rosenfels is) or the massive buzz kill that is the Twins bullpen (and the knowledge that the Twins' season is likely doomed for the same reason it was last year). At least it's not raining here in D.C.

Oh wait.

Let's See How Drafting for Need Works Out

2009-04-27T09:32:00.002-05:00

I guess it was a mistake discounting all of the rumors about the Vikings drafting Percy Harvin. It wasn't a stupid mistake (he says, having made it), what with the Vikings over zealous efforts to play the misinformation game in previous years, the "culture of accountability" and Brad Childress' statements about not wanting to draft wide receivers in the first round, but it was a mistake.

But was it a mistake by the Vikings? That, I'm not sure about. Harvin has a lot of red flags. There's his positive test for marijuana at the Combine, which says a lot about his decision making, none of which is good. There's his issues in high school, where he was suspended for fighting. And there's his injury history. He's never had the kind of career changing injury that Daunte Culpepper or Willis McGahee had, but he's been constantly hurt through out his college career. He didn't miss a lot of games, so you can't say anything about his toughness, but when your injury history inspires posts like this one, its not a good sign, especially when you're 5'11, 195lbs and constantly handling the ball. Then again, drafting an "injury prone" running back with the 7th pick worked out well two years ago. Let's just hope the Vikings did their homework.

What you can't deny about Harvin is his game breaking speed and agility. He has all the upside (drink!) you could possibly ask for. If you get him the ball, he'll make things happen, just like he did at Florida. Of course, at Florida, he had an offensive genius running a system that isn't very compatible with NFL systems, featuring him as a running back and on a lot of short patterns at wide receiver. It wasn't exactly the West Coast offense, and he wasn't having to share the focus of the offense with Adrian Peterson and Bernard Berrian. And I'll let you make the comparison between Urban Meyer and Brad Childress. There's been a lot said about Childress' inability to use Chester Taylor properly, and he now has to figure out how to use a RB/WR hybrid as well. And make no mistake about it- Harvin's a hybrid (at least for now), another example of the effect of the spread on college football. Can he transition into the NFL as a wid eout, where his route running ability will be a much larger factor on his success than it did in college? Especially considering he's coming from the spread? Can he become what Devin Hester (he's probably the best comparison, both due to explosiveness and his raw offensive skills) is now?

And then there's the Vikings' Second round choice, Phil Loadholt, a massive tackle that will hopefully solve the Vikings problems at right tackle. And Loadholt should be a good one, starting two years at left tackle for Oklahoma, where he showed all of the skills needed to be a very good right tackle. At 6'8, 332, Loadholt is huge, he's strong and he can create huge holes for Adrian Peterson to run through. In his 822 snaps at OU, he had 94 knockdowns, eight down
field blocks and a league-high 16 touchdown-resulting blocks. He's a quality pass blocker as well and only allowed just one quarterback pressure and two sacks on 438 pass plays. Of course, there are questions about him as well. Some scouting reports question his intelligence, while others believe that along with his size come a pair of slow feet (there's a reason he wasn't seen as a first round left tackle) that could lead to a lot of holding calls once Loaderholt starts to face improved competition that is big and quick. He’s definitely not the prospect that Michael Oher was, but he looks to be good enough to step in and replace the mediocrity that is Ryan Cook.

The Vikings finished up their first three rounds by addressing their corner depth and return game (so, if anything, you have to give them credit for addressing their four biggest needs in the first three rounds) by drafting Antoine Winfield, I mean, Asher Allen from Georgia. Allen is Winfield, if Antoine Winfield had been drafted his junior year instead of his senior year and returned kicks and punts. He was a semi-finalist for the Jim Thorpe Award as a junior (Winfield won the award as the best defensive back his senior year), he’s a sure tackler and while he may not have the ridiculous athleticism of some corners, he’s a solid cover corner and he’s tough, playing the last five games of the season with a fractured hand. And even more importantly, he has the ability to contribute in the return game, something the Vikings desperately need. Of course, like any other third round pick, there are some question marks (even aside from his height). He only had three interceptions in his three years at Georgia, one against Troy and two against Hawaii in the Sugar Bowl (not exactly elite competition, especially when you remember that Colt Brennan was getting knocked down every single play by Georgia’s pass rush in the Sugar Bowl). And he’s only returned 10 punts, meaning he’s likely not the punt returner the Vikings need even more than they need a kick returner.

Overall, this draft could be a good one for the Vikings. If the fears about Harvin are overblown and Childress can figure out how to get him the ball where he can make plays, he can be the offensive weapon the Purple need to compliment Peterson and Berrian. If Loadholt’s transition to the right side allows him to overcome or hide his problems with quicker pass rushers and he uses his bulk to create huge holes for Peterson, Taylor and Harvin, he could be answer to the Vikings’ right side issues. And Allen could develop into Antoine Winfield, Jr., providing amazing run support and solid coverage all while returning kicks and punts. It could also be a 2005 style disaster, with Harvin using the deadly combination of injuries and poor decision making to play himself out of the league, Loadholt’s slow feet forcing him to clutch and grab his way to holding penalties galore and Allen showing why there aren’t more good defensive backs Antoine Winfield’s size in the NFL.

No Logo Needed Mock Draft: 32nd Pick

2009-04-24T15:45:00.002-05:00

And so we come to the end, with the Super Bowl Champions making the final pick in this mock draft. Picking on behalf of former Vikings' Defensive Coordinator Mike Tomlin are the writers from Steelers Today.

With the 32nd pick in the Mock Draft Among Blogs, the Pittsburgh Steelers select:

Fili Moala, Defensive Tackle, USC

I had a hard time with this pick. Everyone knows that the Steelers need offensive line help. However, all of the offensive tackles that I was interested in are gone. William Beatty was borderline, but I ultimately decided that he didn't deserve a first round selection. The only interior lineman that I thought was worth a 1st round pick was Alex Mack, but he was taken by the Philadelphia Eagles (curse you!!!!).

I looked hard at defensive backs. I absolutely love Sean Smith, and he would have been my selection had I not taken Moala. The Steelers lost Bryant McFadden in free agency, so CB is a need. However, backup William Gay is ready to start, so that need isn't as pressing as it may seem. We definitely need depth at both CB and safety, but we can take care of that later in the draft.

I was ecstatic when the Arizona Cardinals took Beanie Wells with the 31st pick. Now I won't have to explain not taking him to Steelers fans who are dying for a "power back". Besides, we took Rashard Mendenhall last year. 2008 was essentially a redshirt year for him.

Ultimately, I couldn't overlook the fact that all of the Steelers' defensive line starters are over 30 years old. Aaron Smith will be 33 this season. His days are winding down, and Dick LeBeau's system is complex. Few players start on the Steelers' defense in their first year. We need to bring in Smith's replacement now to give him a year to learn, and prepare him to take over in 2010.

Fili Moala is a 6'4", 303 lbs. defensive tackle who has started 38 games in one of the best programs in the country (USC). I have Moala rated as the 3rd best defensive tackle in the draft. However, I have him rated right below Tyson Jackson as the 2nd best 3-4 defensive end in the draft. Moala's knock as a defensive tackle is that he is more of a run stopper than a pass rusher. He just doesn't get enough sacks. However, he is lauded for his rare strength, and his ability to collapse the pocket and make tackles despite fighting off double teams. Hmmmm, a 300 lb. run stopper who can handle double teams and collapse the pocket. Sounds like a 3-4 defensive end to me. Aaron Smith's successor has been found.

No Logo Needed Mock Draft: 31st Pick

2009-04-24T08:02:00.002-05:00

Two picks left, both of whom are on the Vikings' schedule this year. First up, the team that, outside of Detroit, is the least likely to make the playoffs this year (due to the Super Bowl Loser Curse). Picking on behalf of the Cardinals, the writers of Raising 'Zona.

With the 31st pick in the Mock Draft Among Blogs, the Arizona Cardinals select:

Chris Wells, RB, OSU

Why the Cardinals chose Wells as per DraftCountdown.com:

The Cardinals might be the only team in the league that counts running back as one of their top Draft Day priorities, but that could work out well for them as there should be some excellent options on the board here. There is certainly a chance that Knowshon Moreno will be long gone by this point but running backs do tend to slide a bit and unless a team goes against the grain and takes one even though it’s not a glaring need, a la Pittsburgh with Rashard Mendenhall last year, he could still be available late in round one.

There are some who feel Moreno is one of the ten best players in this entire draft and in some ways he is similar to Cadillac Williams in that he doesn’t have elite size or speed but makes up for it with outstanding instincts and vision. If Wells and Moreno are both gone Arizona could turn their attention to Donald Brown or LeSean McCoy. The Cardinals could also use an upgrade at center and after the way James Harrison abused Mike Gandy in the Super Bowl they have to at least consider bringing in a new left tackle as well. Keep an eye on outside linebacker here too because even though the Cards have some solid options like Travis LaBoy and Chike Okeafor they really don’t have that impact pass rusher at the position.

No Logo Needed Mock Draft: 30th Pick

2009-04-23T17:20:00.003-05:00

Only three picks remaining and this one should allow Vikings' fans to gain some familiarity with another player that may end up holding up a Purple and Gold Jersey this weekend. Next up are the folks from the Music City Miracles selecting on behalf of the #1 seed Tennessee Titans.

With the 30th pick in the 2009 NFL draft the Tennessee Titans select....

D.J. Moore, CB, Vanderbilt

The Titans are in desperate need for depth at the corner back position after losing 3 of their backups in free agency this offseason. Combine that with the fact that one of their starters, Nick Harper, is aging and missed a lot of games last season, and that one of the backup corners they lost in free agency, Chris Carr, was their kickoff and punt returner, Moore is the perfect pick for the Titans.

Moore did it all for the Commodores. He played corner at a very high level, returned punts and kicks, and even played some receiver. The Titans are still in desperate need for playmakers, and Moore is exactly that. He is slipping on a lot of draft boards because of his poor 40 times at the combine and at his Pro Day, but if you saw him play at all in his career at Vandy, you will have no doubts that he will be an excellent corner/returner on Sundays.

No Logo Needed Mock Draft: 29th Pick

2009-04-23T09:10:00.003-05:00

We're finally starting to wrap things up here in the mock draft. I'll have a big, big Vikings' draft preview up either tomorrow or Saturday morning, but first we gotta get this mock draft done (and, like all good mock drafts, it gives you an idea of who some of the prospects the Vikings' might take are). So here's the writers from Big Blue 101 drafting for the Giants:

With the 29th pick in the 2009 NFL Draft, the New York Giants select -

Hakeem Nicks - WR, North Carolina

This is an ideal situation for the New York Giants, as the team is ready to win now, and needs a dangerous receiving threat. I feel that the 6'1 214lb Nicks is more ready to contribute right away than any receiver in this draft. He may not have as high of a ceiling as Darius Heyward-Bey, but his floor is also not as low and I think there is a relatively small chance Nicks is a bust.

Nicks ran a 4.50 40 yard dash at the combine and probably has the best hands and runs some of the best routes in this draft. He reminds me a lot of Anquan Boldin, because while he may not beat you deep, he will go up and get any ball and is great after the catch. He is also a very willing down field blocker and supposedly has great character. As a senior Nicks caught 68 passes for 1222 yards and scored 12 touchdowns. Anybody who saw Nicks catch eight passes for 217 yards and score three touchdowns in North Carolina's bowl game against West Virginia knows he can dominate a game.

I am not going to delve into the Plaxico Burress situation, because we all have heard it a million times this off season, but if you watched the team play at all this season you know how badly Eli Manning needs another target. Pairing Nicks with a impressive young reciving core including Steve Smith, Domenik Hixon, Mario Manningham, Kevin Boss and Sinorice Moss will really help the Giants until Plaxico Burress is able to retun to the field and should make the run first Giants much more dangerous through the air in 2009.

No Logo Needed Mock Draft: 28th Pick

2009-04-15T08:44:00.005-05:00

Next up is the Philadelphia Eagles, making their second selection of the first round and once again facing needs similar to those of the Vikings. Once again, the writers of the Iggles Blog will be making the selection, and their choice could well be a player that ends up holding up a Purple Jersey next weekend.

With the 28th pick of the 2009 NFL Draft, the Philadelphia Eagles select:

Alex Mack, OL, California

Man, I love this pick. The scouting reports on this kid are glowing. He's considered the best center prospect since (at least) Nick Mangold. I've heard him do a couple interviews since the Combine and have been impressed with him both times.

There's really nothing not to love about this guy. And the bottom line is that I'd much rather see the Eagles take a truly elite guy at the center position, rather than reach for the fifth-best dude at tackle.

As for how he fits in with the Eagles, there's a short answer and a long answer. The short version is right now the Eagles have four guys penciled in as starters for next year's offensive line. Mack will play center in this league some day, but just on raw talent and ability he can come in next year and start right away at guard, allowing one of the current guards to move out and play left tackle.

The long version is more complicated and -- let's face it -- a lot less interesting to people who aren't Eagles fans. But for the benefit of the folks on the blog, I'll dig in a bit.

Selecting Mack fixes the 2009 issue addressed above, but it's most interesting for what it does in 2010. Right now, there are a couple guys on this line who are never going to reach their full potential if they don't demonstrate a more significant commitment to controlling their weight. Fourth-year guard Max Jean-Gilles could be a dominating interior lineman, but he's not going to get there by following his workout program from the 2008 offseason. If he can get himself down to the 335 range, the sky is going to be the limit for what he can do.

At the center position, Jamaal Jackson has the same issue. Once MJG got hurt last year, the Eagles offensive line was four trim dudes and one big ol' chubs in the middle. You could argue that the added weight helps him anchor against the league's biggest nose tackles, but it's also true that for every other task he has on the field, losing ten pounds wouldn't hurt him.

Alex Mack is by all accounts a very bright guy, but I don't foresee the Eagles turning over the line calls to a rookie with the team in the place it's at right now. Add that to the fact that MJG is still coming back from his rather gruesome season-ending broken ankle injury from last year, and it's not easy to see how MJG is going to beat Jackson onto the field in 2009.

It's a wide open competition in 2010, however, and once that all shakes out, you're looking at one heck of a line for the next five years. (And one that should be able to block well for whichever back-up running back the Eagles select somewhere later in this draft after not taking one with this pick.)

No Logo Needed Mock Draft: 27th Pick

2009-04-15T08:31:00.003-05:00

And the mock draft keeps rolling. Don't be surprised to see some players taken here in the next few picks that the Vikings are going to be considering on draft day. The Colts are on the clock looking to shore up their defense (when are they NOT looking to shore up their defense) and to possibly supply Peyton Manning with some more weapons on offense. Making the pick are the writers of 18 to 88.

With the 27th pick, the Indianapolis Colts select:

Peria Jerry, DT, Mississippi State

Bill Polian has an unblemished record of hitting on first round picks in Indianapolis. Every player he has taken has become a starter, if not an outright star. At the same time, many of his picks were roundly criticized at the time. Edge James wasn’t Ricky Williams. Dwight Freeney was too small and a reach. Reggie Wayne should have been passed over for a defender. The Colts do not draft for need, but always take the highest player available on the board. 2009 the rare exception where the Colts greatest need IS the highest player on the board. Polian has said publicly that he doubts the team will take a defensive tackle, primarily because history tells us that good DTs are off the board in the top 15 picks, and that the next ‘value slot’ is down around the 5th round. If Peria Jerry were to miraculously fall to 27, however, Polian would probably do a dance and happily select him. Jerry would be the perfect DT for the Colts system, as he is a disruptive tackle who makes plays in the backfield. His only negative is that he is slightly undersized (something the Colts simply do not worry about). Indy desperately needs a DT, but will not reach for a player just to fill a need. The results have been spectacular for the Colts this decade, and the selection of Jerry would cause widespread rejoicing among the Colt faithful.

A word of caution to Mr. Jerry: If selected he should immediately take out a large life insurance policy. The Colts are currently experiencing the “Curse of Corey Simon” when it comes to DTs. Indy has had a need for a top flight DT for 4 seasons now, but every time Polian addresses the need, something horrible happens to the player:

2005 Corey Simon is signed…one year later he is out of the league (chronic fatness)

2006 Montae Reagor is in a severe car accident and never plays for the Colts again

2007 Booger McFarland blows out a knee in training camp

2008 Ed Johnson is cut for refeer

2008 Quinn Pitcock decides to retire at the ripe old age of 23

2008 John McCargo fails a physical and is returned to Buffalo after a trade. He never plays with the Colts.

Schedule Released--Time for Speculation

2009-04-14T19:41:00.003-05:00

The Vikings' schedule has been released and it looks relatively favorable. Of course, there's so much that can happen before the first game, let alone the seventh, tenth, or sixteenth, so really, any talk about how the schedule plays out is ridiculously premature. (Honestly, how the heck did ESPN get an hour long special out of it? And who watched that?)

The first five games set up for a fast start for the Purple, even with two road games against the Browns and Lions to open the season. After that, the Vikings return home for games against the 49ers and Packers before traveling to St. Louis. All five of those teams are drafting in the top ten next Saturday, and while the NFL is known for it turnarounds from season to season, it's still better to start against teams that are likely to be bad (especially with the possibility of the Williams having to sit out due to a suspension). The Vikings' goal should definitely be 4-1 through this stretch, as the schedule gets harder before their bye in Week 9.

For their three final games before the bye, the Purple face the two teams that faced off in the AFC Championship and their arch rival. They host Baltimore and then travel to Heinz Field to play the Steelers' imposing defense and try to deal with their awful turf. They then close out the first half of the season with a trip to Lambeau to face the Packers and, hopefully, take a shot at sweeping Green Bay. Realistically, the Vikings should hope to win 1 of these 3, and if they can pull off 2-1, that would be amazing.

So, hopefully, after the bye, the Vikings will be sitting at 5-3, and their schedule likely starts to get harder, but only after the Purple get to host Detroit and Seattle and hopefully push their record to 7-3. And then comes the stretch run, with Chicago and Jay Cutler coming to the Dome in Week 12, followed by a trip to Arizona to play the NFC Champions, a "break" against the Bengals at home (no team with Carson Palmer is a break) followed by trips to Carolina and then Chicago, which will likely decide the NFC North title. Finally, the Vikings once again face the Giants to close the season, hopefully with the same results.

As of right now, it looks a lot like the final five games will really be the deciding factor in whether the Vikings' get a bye, winning the division or even if they make the playoffs. The Vikings could just as easily finish the year 4-1 as they could 1-4. And it makes their start all the more important, because if they don't beat the bad teams, it won't be easy to get the wins they need to make the playoffs in the final weeks of the season.

No Logo Needed Mock Draft: 26th Pick

2009-04-08T09:36:00.006-05:00

Like the Vikings, the Ravens are coming off a successful season, and like the Vikings, the Ravens' success was largely due to their defense. Unlike the Vikings, however, they don't need a quarterback and they lost some key defensive players to free agency. So which way will they go in the Draft? The folks from Ebony Bird are making the pick for the other Purple team.

With the 26th pick, the Baltimore Ravens select:

Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers

The Ravens have had their most active offseason in team history, re-signing Ray Lewis, signing CB Dominique Foxworth, CB Chris Carr, C Matt Birk and TE L.J. Smith, along with bringing in multiple new coaches and cutting veterans Samari Rolle and Chris McAllister. In re-signing Lewis, the linebackers corps remains strong, and the secondary should be helped by the new additions and the emergence of Fabian Washington. Therefore, the main need that the Purple and Black need have is at receiver. Derrick Mason is getting old, Mark Clayton is inconsistent and Demetrius Williams has never been healthy enough or productive enough to become a regular for the team. With Joe Flacco as the team's most successful quarterback since Trent Dilfer, Unibrow Boy needs a "toolsy" receiver to help him become a star. Britt has very good speed, and great hands, and his 6'3", 218 lb. frame makes him a big target. When you combine all of those, you get one of Rutgers' best receivers in school history. Seeing him in person 8 times in Piscataway, I can tell you from firsthand accounts how daunting of a task is to cover Mr. Britt. Picking Britt would bring the Ravens that much closer to the lofty status of Super Bowl champion.

No Logo Needed Mock Draft: 25th Pick

2009-04-07T08:26:00.003-05:00

It's been awhile (and you can refresh your memory of the previous picks by following the links on the side), but its time to get back into the No Logo Needed Mock Draft (and really start diving into the draft, which is coming up a lot faster than I thought). We left off with the Dolphins, the surprise winners of the AFC East last year. Making the pick on behalf of the Tuna will be the writers at the Phinsider.

With the 25th pick of the 2009 NFL Draft, the Miami Dolphins select...

LB Larry English, Northern Illinois

There were two ways to go about this pick. I could have taken the player I like the most that is still on the board - which would have been either CB Darius Butler or CB Sean Smith. That would have also addressed Miami's most glaring hole. But this is a mock draft - and I'm going to select the player that I think the Dolphins would most likely draft if the actual draft played out this way.

Bill Parcells loves linebackers. That's no secret. And among Miami's top three needs is the outside linebacker position (right up there with CB and WR). Larry English has the size and strength that this regime loves. And while I worry a litle bit about English's ability to drop back into coverage due to his lack of fluidity in his hips, I do think that Larry's upside here is tremendous as a pass rusher and potential heir to Joey Porter. He's also tough, smart, and a "high-motor" player - all things that Bill Parcells demands from his linebackers.

Opening Day and Thoughts On Cutler

2009-04-06T09:43:00.004-05:00

"There is no sports event like Opening Day of baseball, the sense of beating back the forces of darkness and the National Football League."-George Vescey

It's Opening Day. Thankfully. Because the events of the past week have made the upcoming NFL season look a little less exciting. The Bears have a franchise quarterback for the first time in my lifetime, and, while it looks like the Vikings did not have a chance to get Jay Cutler once Matt Cassel was traded to the Chiefs, it's still disappointing to see him end up in the NFC North.

And yes, I know that Cutler is a horrible human being (because their love for Brett Favre shows the media's ability to judge character) , that he doesn't have the intangibles to make the playoffs (last I checked, football is the ultimate team game and his defense was about as bad as the Lions' last year) and that no quarterback that has every demanded a trade could possibly lead a team to the Super Bowl (Eli Manning and John Elway say hello). Doesn't matter to me. Jay Cutler is really, really, really good, he's 25, he made the Pro Bowl last year and he's going to spend at least the next 10 years running the Bears offense and running it well. Really, the only difference between this trade and the Jared Allen trade is one more first round pick, which pays for the two extra years of Cutler's career that will be played with the Bears.

So are the Bears going to win the Super Bowl next year? Probably not. As others have pointed out, Chicago's team is a little too old on defense and a little too shy of play makers on offense (though you'll be surprised how much better their offense is with a real quarterback). But the trade means that not only are they're going to be in contention for the NFC North again this year, but they're probably the favorites to win it and that's mainly because when their offense trots out onto the field, the guy under center is a Pro Bowler, not Tarvaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels.

Why is Chris Carter Not in the HOF Again?

2009-03-31T17:44:00.002-05:00

From Peter King's MMQB Tuesday edition:

If Cris Carter can't get in with 1,104 catches (and he's fallen short in his first years of eligibility), how will a man with 603 fewer receptions get in?
But I could easily make the argument that Branch, with three Super Bowl victories, was every bit the impact player (and maybe more so) as Lynn Swann, who was on four Steeler Super Bowl winners. Now I never voted for Swann, but he's in, and he has some eloquent and strong backers.

Swann averaged 2.9 catches and 47.5 receiving yards per game; Branch 2.7 and the identical 47.5. Swann: three Pro Bowls, one All-Pro team made. Branch: four Pro Bowls, three All-Pro teams. Branch averaged a gaudy 17.3 yards per catch, a yard more than Swann, and had 67 touchdowns to Swann's 51. The difference came in Super Bowl impact, with Swann and Branch both catch three touchdown passes in title games but Swann notching 161- and 124-yard games as a crucial element to the Steelers' success.

Chris Carter averaged 4.71 catches and 59.4 yards per game (putting aside how stupid those particular stats might be), averaged 12.3 yards per catch, caught 130 touchdowns, made 8 Pro Bowls and one All-Pro team. Carter made as many Pro Bowls as years Swann played in the NFL.

Honestly, I really don't get the NFL Hall of Fame.

Turning Down Cutler, but not Tahi

2009-03-30T10:30:00.003-05:00

Cutler Rumors
If it's true that the Vikings killed a trade that would have brought them Jay Cutler and the Broncos Matt Cassell, because "some elements in the Minnesota coaching staff weren’t entirely sold on Cutler", then I think we've seen the dumbest personnel decision made by the Vikings' since the Herschel Walker trade. And Brad Childress should get fired for it unless combination of Tarvaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels lead the Vikings to the Super Bowl. Childress may not have been the member of the staff that wasn't sold on Cutler, but the buck stops with him when it comes to the staff weighing in on personnel decisions, so it shouldn't have mattered if Darrell Bevell or Kevin Rogers had a problem with Cutler. And if it was him that killed the deal, well, then I really hope he gets fired, because he has no idea what a quarterback good enough to win the Super Bowl looks like.

Vikings Re-sign Tahi
Apparently they thought it was necessary after Leonard Weaver signed with the Eagles. Weaver would have been a big upgrade on the awful Tahi. Tahi, well, he's not an upgrade, he's a horrible option as receiver and his blocking wasn't all that great from what I could tell. He's not good, but at least it was only a one year deal, which means the Purple can try and upgrade again last year. Really, it wouldn't be a problem if Adrian Peterson got to play more in passing situations, because then the quarterbacks could use him as an outlet, instead of Tahi, who doesn't quite have Peterson's speed, quickness or game changing ability. But we'll leave that one for another day (though I think you can probably tie it back into my point about how Childress should definitely be fired if the Vikings' don't go to the Super Bowl this year).

No Logo Needed Mock Draft: 24th Pick

2009-03-27T08:40:00.003-05:00

More on the Childress Killing the Cutler trade rumor later today, but I've gotta get some more work done and flesh out my thoughts a bit more. So while you're waiting, why not continue following along the draft as the writers of the Falcoholic make their selection in the No Logo Needed Mock Draft.

With the 24th pick of the 2009 NFL Draft, the Atlanta Falcons select....

LB Clint Sintim, Virginia

Some may consider this pick a slight reach, but Sintim fills the absolute number one need for the Falcons. I would trade my first born son and the draft rights to my third born for a living, breathing pass rush in Atlanta, and Sintim goes a long way toward helping that.

Despite their magical, pixie-dust sprinkled season in 2008, Falcons not named John Abraham proved remarkably terrible at getting to the quarterback. Sintim could immediately contribute because he knows how to make his way into the backfield and has the speed and tackling potency to be one of the better pass-rushing linebackers in the league. He's also no slouch against the run, making him--in my addled brain, at least--a legitimate first round talent.

The Falcons do have a host of needs here, including holes at safety, potentially at cornerback and a real need for a dual threat type of tight end. The first need is the pass rush, though, and Sintim represents a big piece of the puzzle.

No Logo Needed Mock Draft: 23rd Pick

2009-03-26T11:33:00.002-05:00

If you'd like to debate my choice for the Vikings' pick, go right ahead. But the draft stops for no man, which means we're on to the Patriots and the 23rd pick. Selecting for the most feared coach in the business are the folks from Patriots Daily.

With the 23rd Pick of the 2009 NFL Draft, the New England Patriots select…..

Before I get to that, let me just say that I am going to get killed for this. And it’s not my fault, honest. I mean, you see how this pretend draft has gone for me, the pretend GM of the pretend Pats. Let’s just say Rey Maualugua wasn’t going to be sliding in this particular selection process. Neither was Clay Matthews or Brian Cushing, the other USC linebackers we also liked, or even Eben Britton, the versatile Arizona tackle who would have been a nice building block for the future of the Pats offensive line.

So what do I do now? I’m too slow witted to try a trade with the very same people who suckered me into this draft in the first place, so that’s out. Do I go BPA (best player available) regardless of position, or CYA with a ‘need’ pick?

Here’s how I figured it. If I’m going to be pretend paying someone pretend first round money for a pretend four years, I’m going to give it to the best football player I can find, and not some linebacker I don’t really like, some DE-OLB tweener that I’m not sure about, or some defensive back I can probably get eleven pretend pay slots later.

So, with the 23rd Pick of the 2009 NFL Draft, the New England Patriots select…..

RB Knowshon Moreno, Georgia

Yeah, I know. The Patriots don’t need a running back at the moment, not with a full rotation in place for 2009. Not with Sammy Morris, Fred Taylor and Laurence Maroney tied up through 2010. Not with other needs – in the secondary or the front seven, for example – that will more immediately impact their ability to compete this fall.

I don’t care. Moreno is, by most measurements, a top 15 player in this draft. I’m supposed to ignore that? Did I mention that this draft couldn’t have gone any worse for me?

The strange thing is that this could end up working. Kevin Faulk, the Pats utility knife who is about to turn 33, is entering the final year of his contract. Maroney is teetering on the edge of full-on bust status after a disappointing 2008 season that was marred by injury and ineffectiveness. As great as he’s been in New England, Morris is 32, and if the Pats advance deep into next year’s playoffs, they’ll probably have cake in the break room one afternoon to celebrate Taylor’s 34th birthday.

Best of all, by all accounts, Moreno is a well rounded, consistently productive player. He’s not a burner, but a quick, elusive and tough runner who is well suited to be a focal point, yet does the little things (like blitz pickup) right. He’s a smooth receiver who can get down the field from the backfield, or split wide. He’s got the right classroom and weight room make-up. He’s probably the most Patriot-like running back in the draft.

So despite the fact that I’ll get killed for this, he’s my pick. The Atlanta Falcons are now on the clock. Hopefully, I’ll find out later that they wanted Moreno. Because after all, misery loves company.

No Logo Needed Mock Draft: 22nd Pick, Minnesota Vikings

2009-03-25T15:09:00.001-05:00

The pick you've been waiting for:

With the 22nd Pick of the 2009 NFL Draft, the Minnesota Vikings select:

Mark Sanchez, QB, USC

Going into this mock draft, I expected to have to justify why I chose not to draft Josh Freeman, who is generally considered the third best quarterback available. By my count, there were about 9 teams that could reasonably take Mark Sanchez due to the age of their “franchise” QB or due to their lack of a franchise QB (Detroit, St. Louis, Seattle, Jacksonville, San Francisco, Denver, New York Jets, Chicago, Tampa Bay) before the Vikings picked. Instead, it looks like I’m going to have decide whether Mark Sanchez is the answer to the Vikings’ long standing quarterback issue (or is juicy enough to tempt the Broncos to trade Jay Cutler for him) or whether the Vikings should address their needs at cornerback or offensive line. And after thinking back to the last two years, the answer is clear—if Mark Sanchez is available, the Vikings should draft him.

First off, it’s quite clear that the Vikings need a real franchise quarterback. Tarvaris Jackson is never going to be that good and Sage Rosenfels is already 31 years old. Secondly, I believe that Mark Sanchez is the best quarterback available in the draft because he’s got enough arm strength for the pros, he’s more accurate than Matt Stafford and he’s shown the ability to read coverages that Freeman never had to in Kansas State’s spread offense.

Sanchez has the arm strength and the accuracy to succeed in the NFL and he has the background in a Pro-Style offense that will allow him to quickly adapt to the pros. He completed 64.27% of his passes in his 16 games at USC, more than any other first round quarterback. He can throw the ball deep accurately (forcing defenses to only put eight in the box to stop Adrian Peterson) and he has the touch needed for the short throws as well, a necessity in Brad Childress’ West Coast Offense. Also, Sanchez has all the intangibles you’d want in your quarterback, which he showed by getting elected captain last year and when he stuck it out at USC despite getting beat out by John David Booty for the starting position in 2006.

I know there are some doubts about Sanchez due to his lack of starting experience, the talent surrounding him, his height and the fact he was somewhat turnover prone, throwing ten interceptions and fumbling seven times. The doubts are enough for me to hope that he’s taken before the Vikings’ pick, but they aren’t enough to let me pass on him for another player (especially with 5 offensive tackles already off the board). So the Vikings’ finally have their franchise quarterback. Hopefully.

No Logo Needed Mock Draft: 21st Pick

2009-03-25T09:10:00.003-05:00

One last pick before the Vikings are on the clock. Check back later today to find out who I'm selecting for the Vikings, but first, check out the Eagles choice, made by the folks of the Iggles Blog.

With the 21st pick of the 2009 NFL Draft, the Philadelphia Eagles select:

Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois

Publish Post

Say what now? A cornerback? And one with character issues to boot?

Yes. Yes, indeed.

Davis is the perfect Andy Reid draft choice:

He plays a high-value position in which first-round athleticism makes a huge difference.
No one sees the pick coming.
On its face, the pick is completely inexplicable.

But what about offensive line (you ask). Or tight end? Or running back? Or all the other places the Eagles have actual needs? Not cornerback, where we have a Pro Bowler, a solid starter, a very wealthy nickel man and a "first-round talent" prospect coming off a knee injury.

Let me explain. First of all, as a cornerback, Davis is very, very good. He's also -- for a cornerback -- very, very big. The brother of Vernon Davis is a physical freak. You don't find many 6-0, 200-pound guys who can turn and run with most wide receivers. Can I get a "Plaxico Burress" anyone?

Secondly, everyone remembers the story of how the Eagles drafted Lito Sheppard and Sheldon Brown even though they already had Troy Vincent and Bobby Taylor locked in as starters. What most people don't realize is that Sheldon Brown is now older than Taylor was when his replacement was drafted (and only one year younger that Vincent was at the same time.)

Cornerbacks don't age well. You can never have enough guys around to keep pushing them.

Now, with that said, the other intriguing thing about Davis is that he may actually project to FS at the next level. He's a born hitter, loves contact, and his "tremendous athleticism" at the cornerback position would translate to "Hall of Fame caliber athleticism" at the safety position.

New SS Sean Jones is a one-year stopgap, we still don't know for sure what we have in Quintin Demps, and Quintin Mikell turns 29 later this year. Another safety prospect would not be a bad thing to have around.

No Logo Needed Mock Draft: 20th Pick

2009-03-24T17:42:00.002-05:00

The Lions continue their rebuilding effort with the pick they received from the Cowboys for Roy Williams (you'll remember it occurred after they fired Matt Millen and not before). So where does Jim Schwartz (in this case, the Wayne Fontes Experience) go with this pick? Let's find out.

With the 20th pick of the 2009 Draft, the Detroit Lions (via the Dallas Cowboys) select:

Aaron Maybin, DE, Penn State University

Though offensive tackle could be addressed at the 20 spot, at this point of the draft, the Lions absolutely have to draft for the defensive side of the ball (Plus there has been a run on OT's in this mock). To be blunt, they could draft a player at 20 who plays ANY defensive position, and it would fill a Detroit need. The Lions' defense was truly that bad in 2008. Legendarily, shockingly, regime killing bad.

Middle linebacker is a HUGE need, so tOSU's James Laurientus was heavily considered with this pick. But he could very likely be available with the first pick of the 2nd round, as Laurientus has been dropping on draft boards and mock drafts all across the NFL. I was hoping USC LB Rey Maualuga would be available at 20, but he surprisingly went in the top 5 of this mock.

The Lions also have big time needs on the defensive line, and I was even more surprised to see Aaron Maybin, the DE out of Penn State, still on the board. The Lions desperately need a pass rush, and Maybin is a pure speed rusher, though a bit raw. But he scouts out as a breakout type talent, the best player off the snap in this draft and the best pass rusher available, period.

The Lions have lacked a big time pass rushing end for over 2 decades (Finding an end "Who could block out the sun" was Wayne Fontes' obsession, his white whale, so to speak). The last Lions defensive end to honestly put fear in the the eyes of opposition quarterbacks was Al "Bubba" Baker back in the early-mid 80's. Yes, it's been that long...

Maybin is the sort of talent the Lions can build around. He could be head coach Jim Schwartz's Detroit version of "The Freak", Javon Kearse, whom terrorized offenses from defensive end during Schwartz's first 3 seasons as defensive coordinator (2001-03) in Tennessee. Maybin would also bookend nicely with one of the Lions' few legitimate NFL defenders, end Dewayne White. Add Cliff Averil to the mix, who showed signs of being a solid contributor in his rookie season with 5 sacks, and the Lions would actually have a defensive position which could be considered a strength.

Maybin may have the biggest upside (I know, it's a cliche, but true in his case) of any defensive player in this draft. My only concern is size, as Maybin is on the smallish side, and Schwartz is on record saying he wants a bigger and stronger defense under his watch. But Maybin's a born pass rusher, and is the sort of player who could be a true impact defender in a few years. Impact players have been far and few between in Detroit for quite some time.

The Lions would be THRILLED if a player with Maybin's natural talent is available with the 20th pick.

On Griffin and Holt

2009-03-24T13:36:00.004-05:00

Cedric Griffin Extension
The Vikings signed Cedric Griffin to an extension over the weekend, locking him up through the 2015 season for $25 million, $10 million of which is guaranteed. I think it's likely a good deal, so long as the Vikings realize that Griffin has yet to show he can be the #1 cornerback on a good defense.

First off, the money isn't a big deal because most of it is probably going to count against this year's cap, a necessity since the Purple seem to be near the salary floor. Secondly, it assures that the Vikings have at least one of their two starting cornerbacks under contract after this year, which they couldn't have said before. And that means that when they aren't forced to throw money at cornerbacks next year (whether that be Winfield and Griffin or free agents) because they already have a solid one. Now they can choose to cut bait on Winfield if his production drops in the final year of his contract (like they did with Sharper) or they can re-sign him if they feel he's worth bringing back, but they don't have to make the decision while trying to retain or replace their other starting cornerback at the same time.

The only thing that worries me about this contract extension is that the Vikings might decide that Griffin is good enough to be their best cornerback. While Griffin played well at times last year, he wasn't consistently good enough last year to be counted on as the top corner on the roster (you might recall talk of benching him in favor of Charles Gordon before Gordon got hurt). He might take that next step this year, but he might not, which means the Purple have to continue to pursue corners in the draft and in free agency.

Glenn Holt
The Vikings continued to upgrade their special teams by signing Glenn Holt, the kick returner for the Cincinnati Bengals. Holt is a massive upgrade over Maurice Hicks (who isn't?). Unlike Hicks, who, in 185 kick returns prior to joining the Vikings, had returned exactly one kick for more than 60 yards (his career long was 64 yards) and only 8 for more than 40 yards, Holt has shown the ability to break a long one. He's returned one kick for a touchdown already, and has 8 of 122 returns for more than 40 yards and was tied for the 7th most kick returns for more than 40 yards last year.

Now, Holt's not exactly Devin Hester, but he's a solid returner with the ability to break one. He's also going to give the Vikings a better chance of starting with good field position. Last year, the Vikings returners (excluding Jimmy Kleinsasser and Naufahu Tahi) only returned 48% of kick offs (27 of 56) 20 yards or more. Of the 122 kicks that Holt has returned in his career, he's taken 78 of them 20 yards or more (64%). And last year, he returned 61% of the kicks he fielded 20 yards or more.

So while the Holt signing may not be all that sexy (like a Terry Holt signing would be), it definitely upgrades the Vikings' roster and provides a quality veteran kick returner to compete for the position with Darius Reynaud and Aundrae Allison. And upgrading the kick return game will help the Vikings' run first offense score more points (and help the defense prevent points) by giving the Vikings' good starting field position after kickoffs, something they couldn't count on last year.

No Logo Needed Mock Draft: 19th Pick

2009-03-24T08:19:00.003-05:00

The Vikings are almost on the clock (I should be posting my pick tomorrow afternoon), but first
new head coach Raheem Morris must make the first pick of his head coaching career. Tampa collapsed notably down the stretch, and they need some more positive news. Will they get it with their first pick? The Buccaneers blog, Buc 'Em, is making the pick.

With the 19th Pick in the 2009 NFL Draft, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers select:

Percy Harvin, WR, Florida

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers find themselves with a number of question marks entering the season. Will the new coaching staff succeed? Why couldn't more be done with all that cap space? Are there too many holes in the roster? When it comes to the draft, the Bucs could go in a number of directions, but with this pick, they're going with the best available athlete.

Even during the Super Bowl Championship year, the Bucs offense wasn't explosive. Tampa Bay has had it's moments, but never had an offense that struck fear into the hearts of opponents. By selecting Percy Harvin, they hope that can change. Harvin is a hybrid sort of player, but will most likely fit in as more of a traditional receiver. Sure he'll get the occasional handoff or reverse, but don't think his touches will be split as much as they were at the University of Florida.

At receiver, the Bucs already have their #1 guy - Antonio Bryant - and the player they hope can be their #2 - Michael Clayton. Harvin fits the role of game changer. He might not be an every down guy, but will create matchup problems for the defense and could be used as the motion receiver a lot.

Despite injury problems in college, Harvin was never truly seriously hurt. He didn't miss significant amounts of time and given the fact that he will be used in more of a complimentary role in the NFL, he could be a great pickup at this point in the first round. Based on talent alone, Harvin is one of the top players in this year's draft.

The Bucs offense needs someone that can take it the distance. And that is something Harvin can provide. With a power running game, a clear cut #1 receiver, and a young, but improving offensive line, Harvin will be a welcome change of pace that could keep opponents guessing.

Who knows if this is the route the Bucs will go on Draft Day, we had the opportunity to select QB Mark Sanchez, QB Josh Freeman, or DT Peria Jerry, but we stayed true to our word and went with the Buc ‘Em Community collective choice.

No Logo Needed Mock Draft: 18th Pick

2009-03-23T10:19:00.002-05:00

Up next is the third of the Vikings' three NFC North Rivals (that's the problem with winning the division--everybody else gets a better draft pick than you do). Da Bears just missed the playoffs last year, but they haven't been very active in the free agency market, which means they're going to need some quality draft picks in order to take that next step and win the Wild Card (what, you thought I'd say division? Ha!). Drafting on behalf of da Bears are the operators of Blog Down Chicago Bears.

With the 18th pick in the 2009 NFL Draft, the Chicago Bears select:

Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland

Which one of these underwhelming receivers do Bears fans want the underwhelming Kyle Orton to throw to? Third-year receiver -- as in he has three years of experience playing the position -- Devin Hester? Rashied Davis? Earl Bennett? Brandon Rideau?

Exactly.

The Bears passed on T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Laveranues Coles, aren't calling the Cardinals about Anquan Boldin, and seem poised to give recently-released Torry Holt the same cold shoulder treatment.

Maryland's Darrius Heyward-Bey has seen his stock go through the roof after an eye-popping performance at the NFL Combine, including running a 4.30 40-yard dash, the fastest of all receivers. But he isn't just all speed, he has the height too -- 6'2, 210 -- to make him an imposing threat to secondaries everywhere.

All-in-all, Heyward-Bey probably has higher upside than any receiver in the draft, but I know he lacks experience and big-time production. If he denies the urge to go all Troy Williamson, he could finally be -- take a deep breath -- the No. 1 receiver the Bears have been looking for since the beginning of time.

No Logo Needed Mock Draft: 17th Pick

2009-03-19T08:18:00.005-05:00

Brett Favre wasn't the savior the Jets hoped for, leading to a new regime with a new attitude. So which way are the Jets going to go with their first round pick? Fix an offense that fell apart as the season ended? Or strengthen a defense in an attempt to remake the team in the image of its new head coach? Well let's find out what the Jets fans at the Jets Blog think.

With the 17th pick in the 2009 NFL Draft, the New York Jets select:

Tyson Jackson, Defensive End, LSU

With spots to fill at WR, RB, QB and depth on both lines, it's a shame there's only one pick to be made. Jets fans have had their say on TJB , and it's clear they're conflicted. The folks in the TJB War Room were a little surprised how the ABMD has played out, what with some players like Mark Sanchez, Vontae Davis and Tyson Jackson still on the board.

The Jets have real need to find offensive playmakers and with the elite WRs already off the board, but Chris Wells and Sanchez still in the mix, they are tempting options. Still with a player like Tyson Jackson still on the board at 17, it is impossible to resist taking him here.

Although the Jets have invested heavily in a defense (by acquiring ILB Bart Scott, S Jim Leonhard & CB Lito Sheppard) already this offseason, taking Jackson at #17 isn't too much of a good thing. On offense the Jets are looking at depth players like WRs Chansi Stuckey & David Clowney along with QBs Kellen Clemens or Brett Ratliff to take the reigns. With a deep draft class at WR, I would imagine that the Jets will look to target a player like Brian Robiskie in the second round, and move around if necessary to get him.

By the start of the season, both of the Jets Defensive Ends (Kenyon Coleman & Shaun Ellis) will be over 30. Todd McShay called him the Draft's only "elite five technique in this draft." Jackson could play end on first and second downs, and transition to a tackle in passing situations for the team for the next 5-10 years. True, with solid veterans already on the roster, Jackson might have to fight to get playing time in 2009, but he's a pick that would benefit and energize the Jets defensive line for the long-term, something that new coach Rex Ryan would relish.

No Logo Needed Mock Draft: 16th Pick

2009-03-19T08:13:00.005-05:00

There's been quite a run on offensive tackles so far in the draft, with four going in the first 15 picks. Any chance the Vikings' might have of picking one up seems to be slowly slipping away. Thankfully, the Vikings have enough holes that they won't have to reach with their pick (thankfully might not be the right word). Selecting next, on behalf of the AFC West Champs are the writers of Bolt Hype.

With the 16th pick in the 2009 NFL Draft, the San Diego Chargers select:

Eben Britton, Offensive Tackle, University of Arizona

As draft day draws nearer and nearer, speculation as to what position the San Diego Chargers will address in the first round continues to grow. Some feel the Chargers would be best suited to draft a running back with their top pick. Others feel an upgrade at safety is needed, or help along the defensive line. But those who've followed the team closely know how much the Chargers want a top offensive tackle.

Last year, the Chargers were poised to select an offensive tackle with the 27th overall pick in the 2008 NFL Draft. Unfortunately for the Bolts, a record eight offensive tackles were selected in the first 26 picks. By the time the Chargers came on to the clock, all the tackles were gone. This year, the Chargers are in a much better position to acquire an elite tackle.

Chargers GM AJ Smith has made it no secret that he is not happy about the way his team has struggled to run the football, and plans to address the issue:

"I just know we're not good enough. But I will say this, which I've said before: we need to have a solid, consistent running game. We have to."

While four offensive tackles have gone off the board at this point, there are still some options for the Chargers. The Chargers could take a defensive lineman like Tyson Jackson. Or they could draft Merriman's potential replacement, Larry English. And of course many people think the Chargers take a running back like Chris Wells or Knoshown Moreno here. But for the Chargers, who need help at right tackle, Britton could be an easy selection.

The Chargers love experienced players, and while Britton is only a junior, he has started 37 consecutive games in the PAC-10. Britton, a Southern California native, has ideal size, a massive wingspan, a nasty temperment, and leadership abilites. Britton would bring excellent drive blocking skills to the right tackle position and allow the team some flexibility when calling run plays. Britton is also a pretty solid athlete and has the speed to pull.

Overall, I think the Chargers head into the first round looking for an offensive tackle if the right one is there. I think they'd also consider help along the front seven defensively. But in this scenario, I think Britton is a solid selection he could very well end up being a San Diego Charger when it is all said and done.

No Logo Needed Mock Draft: 15th Pick

2009-03-19T08:02:00.004-05:00

We keep getting closer and closer to the Vikings' pick and things are starting to get interesting in a way that only (mock) drafts can. The folks from Houston Die Hards are making the pick on behalf of the Texans, and, coming in, it seemed clear the players they'd be targeting. But sometimes, things just fall into your lap.

With the 15th pick in the draft, the Houston Texans select:

Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss

Well, this is unexpected. The Texans picked their LT of the future in the first round last year, but with all the players I wanted off the board - and an elite talent like Oher slipping, I have no choice but to take him. Oher will be the LT, Duane Brown can move to RT, and current RT Eric
Winston can move inside, which would be a significant upgrade to an already drastically-improved offensive line.

Quick, nimble, and athletic, Oher weighs 309 and is a great fit for the zone blocking scheme that helped to make RB Steve Slaton a rookie of the year candidate last season.

Houston's two biggest positions of need are OLB and DT. However Oher is an ELITE talent, whereas the best players left at those positions may or may not slip to Houston's 2nd round pick.

This was a difficult choice to make because for weeks now I've been railing against mocks that have the Texans taking ANY offensive players, but since I'm a "build from front to back" guy, I can't help but jump all over a player of Oher's caliber.

If this scenario played out in the real world, the Texans would get a SWEET offer to trade down, and they'd take it... but since there are no trades in this draft, I'll take Oher with no regrets.

No Logo Needed Mock Draft: 14th Pick

2009-03-18T14:52:00.002-05:00

Moving right along, the folks at Canal Street Chronicles have sent in their choice for the Saints' first round pick. Take a wild guess which side of the ball the team with the #1 overall offense in points scored and in yardage drafts.

With the 14th pick in the draft, the New Orleans Saints select:

Brian Cushing, OLB, USC

I can't even believe that Cushing is actually still on the board, particularly following his awesome combine performance, but alas he is. With the re-signing of Jonathan Vilma and the return of Dan Morgan, the Saints are just okay at the linebacker spot but really need some help in the secondary. Because of all the talk surrounding his possible switch to safety, Malcolm Jenkins would have to be the other consideration with this pick but because Cushing appears to be the best player available the Saints just can't pass him up. Scott Shanle, your days are numbered!

No Logo Needed Mock Draft: 13th Pick

2009-03-18T08:15:00.004-05:00

Next up are the Washington Redskins, who addressed one need by signing a very intriguing (we'll go with that word) defensive tackle. So who are the folks from Curly R going to draft to fill the needs of a team that collapsed in the second half after starting 6-2, finishing 2-6 and putting Jim Zorn squarely on the hot seat.

With the 13th pick in the 2009 NFL draft for blogs, the Washington Redskins select...

Andre Smith, OT, Alabama

The Redskins have fairly simple needs this year, and they are going to take the best player at either of their top two positions of need. On the offensive side of the ball Washington needs a tackle. Thirty-one year old left tackle Chris Samuels ended 2008 on injured reserve, 33 year old right tackle Jon Jansen lost his starting job then got it back and never pass blocked well, all while undrafted rising third year utility tackle Stephon Heyer still is not turning into a full range starter.

On the defensive side, the position of need is defensive end. With the release of Jason Taylor and the inexplicable loss of Demetric Evans who was the Redskins best player at the position in 2008, the Redskins are left with one quality defensive end, Andre Carter, with the next best option an as yet un re signed Phillip Daniels, 36 years old and coming off a torn ACL suffered in 2008 training camp.

Curly R rated the tackles and defensive ends likely to go in the first thirteen picks in this order: OT Jason Smith, OT Eugene Monroe, DE Brian Orakpo aka Brian Oh Crappo, OT Andre Smith, OT Michael Oher, DE Everette Brown, DE Aaron Maybin. With Jason, Eugene and Brian off the board the decision is easy, Andre will challenge at right tackle this summer.

Although this does not necessarily spell the end of either Jon Jansen or Stephon Heyer it does signal the beginning of a new era at offensive tackle in Washington.

No Logo Needed Mock Draft: 12th Pick

2009-03-17T16:36:00.002-05:00

As the No Logo Needed Mock Draft steams along, we reach the team that everyone wants to trade with. Will they signal their desire to trade Jay Cutler by taking one of the two QBs projected in the first round? Probably not, because, unlike Josh McDaniel, the writers of Mile High Report aren't stupid enough to want to trade Jay Cutler.

With the 12th pick in the 2009 NFL Draft, the Denver Broncos select…..

Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State

The Denver Broncos have a lot of needs, all on the defensive side of the ball. IN this draft, however, many of the guys the Broncos are targets have already left the board – Raji, Rey-Rey, Orakpo, even Matthews as a sleeper. For me it came down to Jenkins or Brian Cushing and at this point I gave the slight edge to Jenkins. He has the perfect size to step right in for the Broncos and play the nickel, and should injuries crop up at either corner or safety Jenkins could step right in there too. There are questions about his speed, but having watched 95% of Ohio State’s games during Jenkins career I can honestly say he plays a lot faster than his straight-line 40-time.

The Broncos have a ton of needs, and while some might think that CB isn’t one of them, with Champ Bailey on one side and FA acquisition Andre Goodman on the other, Jenkins is just the type of physical presence that could step in and make an impact Day 1. Playing with Champ and Brian Dawkins every day will do wonders for him and the kid has all the tools to be a star.

It might not be the sexy pick, but with Josh McDaniels and Co. running the show the Broncos are likely to be safe and Jenkins would definitely be the safest pick of those who remain.

Thoughts on the No Logo Needed Mock Draft So Far

2009-03-17T12:38:00.003-05:00

We're through eleven picks so far, and, while there haven't been too many surprises so far, the No Logo Needed Mock Draft has been pretty illuminating as to what those who know their teams the best (that's right--I'm talking about us bloggers) think their teams should do this April.

A couple of thoughts:

I don't like Matt Stafford as the #1 overall pick and I don't like him for the Lions (well, I do, but that's because I prefer the Lions hapless). He's not accurate enough, he fails the two statistical projection systems and there's no reason to expect a quarterback to improve his bad decision making in the NFL. And sending him to the Lions isn't going to help. How, exactly, is he supposed to make better decisions behind the worst line in the NFL?

The choice by the Rams to take Eugene Monroe #2, and the first of all the offensive tackles is a good one. Unlike Andre Smith, he's not crazy. And unlike Jason Smith, he played in a pro style offense, instead of the spread. That means he's played out of a three point stance (Smith never left a two point stance) and the University of Virginia has shown that it can turn out quality linemen in D'Brickashaw Ferguson and Brandon Albert.

I don't like taking a wide receiver in the first round. I linked to this articl e earlier, but its no less true today--first wide receivers are busts way more often then they become great (or even good) players. With the increase in the use of the spread, its going to become even harder for teams to properly evaluate receivers, because the spread doesn't require anywhere near the same attention to routes as the NFL does. Both Jeremy Maclin and Michael Crabtree played in the spread, though Crabtree is supposed to be a good route runner. Of course, he also is having a pin inserted in his foot and isn't quite as tall as advertised (he's closer to 6'1 than 6'3). Maclin is an amazing punt and kick returner, but reminds me too much of Ted Ginn, Jr. to justify taking him in the top 10.

The Packers choice of Brian Orakpo is a risky one, but it could pay off quite well in their new 3-4. Orakpo's moved up a lot of draft boards and many of the mock draft sites have him as the best defensive player available in the draft. Of course, he also has missed time the past two years with knee issues and hurt his hamstring at the combine. Nothing like injuries to quickly derail a promising career.

I was somewhat surprised to see five linebackers (Aaron Curry, Ray Maualuga, Brian Orakpo, Everette Brown and Clay Matthews) drafted in the first eleven picks. It makes a lot of sense, however, when you consider that all five teams either play a 3-4 defense or are going to play a 3-4 defense. In a 3-4, the linebackers are more important than the defensive line and your linebackers must have the ability to rush the passer as well as play the run and drop into coverage.

We're half way to the Vikings' choice at 22nd. Stay tuned for another choice later this afternoon/evening. And if you need to catch up on the draft so far, there are links to each pick on the sidebar.

No Logo Needed Mock Draft: 11th Pick

2009-03-17T08:17:00.002-05:00

Next up in the No Needed Mock Draft are the Buffalo Bills, the team that, arguably, made the biggest splash in the off season with their surprise signing of Terrel Owens. How will T.O.'s addition effect their draft strategy? Read on as the writer of Buffalo Rumblings selects for the Bills.

With the eleventh overall pick in the 2009 NFL Draft, the Buffalo Bills select...

Clay Matthews, OLB, USC

Buffalo is in full-fledged "win now" mode. Let's face it - you're not risking Terrell Owens being on your roster if you're not desperate for a few wins. Unlike the '08 draft, when the Bills took small-school product Leodis McKelvin and unpolished receiver James Hardy with their first two picks, the Bills are going to look past potential for guys that can contribute immediately, particularly in the first three rounds.

Unfortunately, the team is forced to choose between prospects at this stage in the game that either aren't worthy of a selection this high (Brandon Pettigrew) or fill needs but are inexperienced (Matthews, Aaron Maybin). In the end, Matthews - yes, even ahead of USC teammate Brian Cushing - is the best fit. He gives the Bills an outstanding blitz presence right out of the gate, and he adds playmaking ability to the Bills' league-renowned special teams unit as well.

Matthews isn't a perfect fit in Buffalo's zone-based scheme; his coverage skills are severely underdeveloped, and it's unclear whether he'd be a better fit as a linebacker or an end in a 4-3 defense. In Buffalo, he'd have the opportunity to play a little of both. Buffalo desperately needs a physical, hard-hitting presence at linebacker for run downs, and the 6'3", 240-pound Matthews can lay the lumber. But he also opened some eyes at the Combine when he easily recorded the fastest 10-yard split of any pass-rushing prospect; his 1.49-second time was beaten by only nine cornerbacks. He's very explosive in the short area, and given that fact, he also has potential as a pass-rush specialist - either standing or down on the line - for the blitz-happy Bills. His work ethic, intangibles and unbelievable NFL bloodlines make him a safe investment, even if he's a bit of a reach.

No Logo Needed Mock Draft: 10th Pick

2009-03-16T15:38:00.003-05:00

Next up in the draft are the folks from Niners Nation, one of the better blogs on the internet, even if you're not a 49ers fan. Hopefully I'll have some analysis of the draft so far up tomorrow, but we'll see what my schedule allows (and maybe the Vikings will give me something much better to write about, like, say, a trade for a certain pouting quarterback). Anyway.

With the tenth pick in the 2009 NFL Draft, the San Francisco 49ers select

Everette Brown, OLB, Florida State.

The 49ers have various needs this offseason, but unlike what some people are predicting, a first round QB is not one of those needs. The 49ers have a pair of outside linebackers, one of whom turned in a very solid season in 2008. Parys Haralson seems to have a legitimate future going forward as a pass rushing outside linebacker. Manny Lawson is an athletic freak, but he seems less inclined to rush the passer or more likely to be a guy in coverage and in a read position.

Although Everette Brown didn't have a ton of experience (only one season as a fulltime starter), he still racked up 23 sacks for his 3-year career. This pick is a really tough one for the 49ers because it seems like they're too high for guys like Oher, but they're too low for a BJ Raji. Andre Smith is plummeting and seems like too much of a headcase. If the first 9 picks go in the above order, I think the 49ers will battle themselves in trying to decide between Michael Oher and Everette Brown. What wouldn't surprise me is if the 49ers tried to move up from the second round into the late first round to grab the right tackle they need. They've shown no qualms about making those kinds of moves, so we'll see if they do so again.

Killing Time: Cutler, Paymah and the Draft

2009-03-16T11:37:00.002-05:00

Jay Cutler
Apparently, Jay Cutler has asked for a trade. I've said it before and I'll say it again--the Vikings should be doing everything they can to acquire Jay Cutler. That includes giving up multiple draft picks. Remember--draft picks are about acquiring good, young talent. Cutler is 25 and he's very good. He's also under contract for three more years, and it's a relatively cheap one for a Pro Bowl quarterback.

More on Cutler:

Grant's Tomb on the Cutler Experience.

Kevin Seifert at ESPN's NFC North Blog breaks down the NFC North teams that might want Cutler.

Karl Paymah
The Vikings signed Karl Paymah (making it that much easier for Sports Columnists and Bloggers to make puns while writing about the Vikings) over the weekend. (H/T to Chris for the article). It sounds like Paymah is going to end up playing special teams and competing for the nickleback job, though his contract makes me think the Vikings' expect him to win that job, since his contract is worth about million dollars more than Charles Gordon or Benny Sapp's. I like that the Vikings are acquiring depth at corner, which was arguably their weakest position last year, but it doesn't sound like Paymah, Gordon or Sapp are long term answers, and Antoine Winfield Cedric Griffin are unrestricted free agents at the end of the year.

More on Paymah:

Access Vikings has a scouting report on Paymah after entering the NFL Draft.

The ESPN NFC North Blog has the analysis of Paymah from Scouts, Inc.

The Draft

The National Football Post has an interesting article on offensive linemen's reach and hand size and its effect on their performance.

New Mock Drafts: NFP has the Vikings taking WR Jeremy Maclin from Missouri in the first round, while SI has the Vikings taking WR/RB Percy Harvin from Florida and Draft Countdown has the Purple taking OT Eben Britton from Arizona with the 22nd pick and CB Sean Smith from Utah with the 54th pick.

Stay tuned to find out who I'll be taking for the Vikings in the No Logo Needed Mock Draft, but I can guarantee you it won't be a wide receiver.

No Logo Needed Mock Draft: 8th and 9th Picks

2009-03-16T08:07:00.004-05:00

We had our first no show with the Jaguars, which means that the best prospect from Draftcountdown was selected. This may sounds like a bad thing, but just wait until you read the Packers' explanation for their 9th pick.

With the eighth pick, the Jacksonville Jaguars select:

B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College

According to DraftCountdown.com:

The Jags still haven’t adequately replaced Marcus Stroud so B.J. Raji could be an intriguing option at defensive tackle alongside John Henderson.

9th Pick

Since I'm so nice, I'll also include the 9th pick, a talented player who will be cursed to hatred by those that are righteous and to become the enemy of everything that is good in the world. Drafting on behalf of the Packers are the folks from Lombardi Ave.

With the ninth pick in the 2009 NFL Draft, the Green Bay Packers select:

Brian Orakpo, DE/OLB, Texas

With the new 3-4 scheme in town, the Packers desperately need a good outside pass rusher to play opposite Aaron Kampman. Orakpo provides that strong force from the outside to succeed. All of the great 3-4 defenses in the NFL have "that guy" that can make plays, from James Harrison in Pittsburgh to Terrell Suggs in Baltimore. Orakpo will be able to help anchor the Packers linebacking corps for a long, long time.

Most people have the Packers picking Ohio State corner Malcolm Jenkins with this pick, including most "experts." While that makes sense given the age of starters Charles Woodson and Al Harris, there is still youth behind them. Tramon Williams (despite his contract situation) filled in admirably when Harris was out with the spleen injury in 2008 and the Packers drafted Pat Lee in the third round in 2008 as well. If they pick a corner, they'll do it in the second, third, or fourth rounds. We don't want another Ahmad Carroll on our hands.

The player I feel the Packers need the most is B.J. Raji from Boston College. Raji is big and strong, and can move decently. I feel he would provide a great anchor to the 3-4 scheme. None of the tackles the Packers have on the roster currently are the right type for Dom Capers' defense, and Raji could provide a Casey Hampton-like presence in the middle and be the nucleus of that defensive line and defense for years to come. However, I will take a terror from the outside in Orakpo as well.

No Logo Needed Mock Draft--7th Pick

2009-03-15T10:38:00.003-05:00

Next up in the No Logo Needed Mock Draft is Oakland Raiders, looking once again, for a player that can snap them out of their post-Gruden funk. Luckily for the Raiders (at least in this draft) Zombie Al Davis isn't the one making the pick--the folks from Silver and Black Pride are.

With the 7th pick in the No Logo Needed Mock Draft, the Oakland Raiders select:

Jeremy Maclin, Wide Receiver, Missouri

The Oakland Raiders have several needs for which they need to address including the offensive / defensive lines, wide receiver, linebacker and safety. With the two elite offensive tackles already off the board, the Raiders go with what some scouts peg as the top wide receiver in the draft Jeremy Maclin. Though Crabtree possess incredible talent, the Raiders love Maclin's elite speed, better known as "Raider Speed" in Al Davis speak. For the Raiders, with Javon Walker's health and reliability always a concern, they have no true # 1 wide receiver. The Raiders leading wide receiver last season was Johnnie Lee Higgins with 22 receptions for 366 yards. That just isn't going to cut it and opposing defenses are going to know that the Raiders will run first and often which will make them very predictable. Maclin's speed is the perfect antidote for that as he will stretch the field and allow strong-armed quarterback JaMarcus Russell to air it out and keep defenses honest. The Raiders were ranked dead last in passing offense last season and with the youth movement underway in Oakland, Maclin becomes a key piece of the Raiders future.

Solving Our Problems: Leonard Weaver

2009-03-13T15:19:00.004-05:00

One of the issues that the Vikings had last year that isn't discussed all that often was their failure to sign a replacement for Tony Richardson at Fullback. It's not a glamorous position, or one that the fans really notice (me included). That being said, it was clear that Thomas Tapeh wasn't good enough (he was cut, if you recall) and Naufahu Tahi was pretty awful (as I said earlier, he's a horrible blocker who gained 37 receiving yards on 21 targets with a -77.4%DVOA and accumulated -77 DYAR).

And it looks like Vikings aren't going to settle on just bringing Tahi back (since he's, you know, bad) as they're interested in fullback Leonard Weaver of the Seahawks.

Weaver was an alternate for the Pro Bowl last year at 26, and he's a big dude, standing 6' tall and weighing 242lbs. In his four year career, he's rushed for 356 yards on 80 attempts, for an average of 4.5 yards per carry. 25 of those carries have gone for first downs, showing his ability to get the short yards (though he wasn't used much in the red zone, only scoring one touchdown in his career). According to Football Outsiders, he had -1 DYAR and a -9.0% DVOA on his 30 carries last year, and 40 DYAR and 16.0% DVOA on 33 carries the year before (not surprising to see fluctuations like that in such a small sample size).

He's a very good pass catcher as well, with 60 catches for 547 yards (9.7 YPC) and two touchdowns. Last year he finished with 45 DYAR and a 15.6% DVOA while catching 63% of the 32 passes thrown his way. The season before his 89 DYAR was 11th among running backs and his 17.3% DVOA was 14th. He also brought in 75% of the 52 passes thrown his way.

He has the statistics of a stud fullback, but in the Vikings offense, that's not enough. I asked the folks at Dave Krieg's Strike Beard for a scouting report and here's what they said:

"Leonard Weaver has been a fan favorite in Seattle since he arrived as an undrafted free agent in 2005 (at least among us football nerds). After
having injury problems in 2006 and nearly getting cut after a
disappointing 2007 preseason, 2008 was his breakout year (he was a Pro
Bowl Alternate). Here's the pros and cons on Weaver:

PROS:
-Excellent receiver out of the backfield
-Exceptional pass blocker
-Effective rusher on the few carries he gets

CONS (from Seattle's perspective):
-Not an effective lead blocker in the running game
-The Seahawks drafted Owen Schmitt last year, who is more of a traditional
"bruiser" type of fullback
-Seattle has a new offensive coordinator in Greg Knapp, whose system
wouldn't seem to have a place for Weaver.

The vast majority of Seahawks fans want him to remain with the team, but
it's clear the front office only wants him back at a certain price and not
a nickel more.

My take? Leonard Weaver is a unique weapon in today's NFL, and would be a
great pick-up for the Vikings if they utilize him correctly; Just don't
expect him to be a battering ram for Purple Jesus. That just isn't his
skill set."

That assessment seems to match what the Vikings are looking for (though the fact he's not a great lead blocker isn't a good thing--but that's what Jim Kleinsasser is for). He's a solid pass blocker (so Childress will allow him to play in passing downs) that's also a pass catching threat out of the backfield (and we all know how much Childress likes the swing pass--might as well have them go to a player that can gain some yards instead of to Tahi) and who can convert short yardage situations. So he'd be a big upgrade from Tahi. And while that's not necessarily saying too much (though Weaver sounds like a solid player), it's important to try and upgrade your entire roster when you have the chance. Weaver's an upgrade, which means if he's at all reasonable contract wise, he'd be a good acquisition.

No Logo Needed Mock Draft--6th Pick

2009-03-13T08:36:00.004-05:00

Next up in the mock draft is Bengal Stripes, picking on behalf of the Cincinnati Bengals. There's still some very interesting players available for a team that bottomed out last season and lost some of their better players during the off season (you may remember something about a T.J. Whoseyourmama visiting the Vikings. So who does the best informed Bengals fan in the Universe want to be the newest Bengal? Read on...

With the sixth pick of the 2009 NFL Draft the Cincinnati Bengals select…

Jason Smith, offensive tackle, Baylor

Don’t expect the phone to ring very much in the Bengals' war room and if it does I don’t expect anyone to answer it.

If Jason Smith falls to Cincinnati at No. 6, there will be no complaints from any coach, player or fan in the Queen City when the Bengals gobble him up.

Ever since the combine, Smith has climbed up draft boards due to his excellent interviews and also because Alabama OT Andre Smith’s early exit from the event last month.

In the 2009 NFL Draft, the Bengals are in a unique position in that they need everything.

However, the team needs an offensive tackle more than ever after cutting longtime starting right tackle Willie Anderson before the start of the 2008 season.

On the other side, Cincinnati’s left tackle Levi Jones hasn’t been the same player fans fell in love with him in the early portion of this decade. Through his first four seasons with the Bengals Jones played in 63 of Cincinnati’s 64 regular season games, including 60 of which he started. The last three seasons, Jones played in 31 of the team’s 48 regular season games and started only 28.

On top of all that, last year’s franchise player Stacy Andrews signed a long-term deal to play with his bro in Philadelphia on the first day of free agency.

If the season would start today, it would appear that 2008 fourth-round pick Anthony Collins would be the starter at left tackle and left guard Andrew Whitworth would probably start at right tackle.

Nate Livings would then take Whitworth’s old spot at guard, with a mystery man filling in at center.

It is pretty obvious that the Bengals o-line is the team’s messiest area.

Getting Smith would instantly would upgrade Cincinnati.

Solving our Problems: Kevin Shaffer

2009-03-12T20:44:00.005-05:00

After Jordan Gross and Vernon Carey re-signed with their teams, it seemed like the Vikings were going to have to address the right side of their line through the draft. The tackles available in free agency were either old, had injury issues or both. Any long term answer was going to have to come from the draft. That might not be true anymore, as the Cleveland Browns just released their starting right tackle, Kevin Shaffer. Of course, I might be wasting my time on this post, just like I wasted my time on a post about Vernon Carey, as Shaffer is considering re-signing with the Browns for a smaller contract than before.

If he does decide to enter free agency, however, the Vikings should jump on him. First off, he has a ridiculous beard. Look at it and tell me you don't want him in Purple:

Secondly, he's relatively young, just turning 29 last week. And he can both run and pass block (two skills Ryan Cook doesn't have). He moved from left to right tackle to accommodate #3 pick Joe Thomas in 2007 showed that he was much more effective on the right side. And since then, when the Browns have run to the right, they've been successful. In 2007, they averaged 4.73 Adjusted Line Yards running over the right tackle and 5.03 ALY running to the right end, the 3rd and 2nd most yards in the NFL respectively. In 2008, they averaged 4.64 ALY and 4.59 ALY, the 7th and 6th best totals in the league. In contrast, the Vikings were 21st in ALY to the right tackle and 28th to the right end in 2007 and 28th and 8th to the right end (remember, the tight end is equally important in plays to right end) in 2008.

While its hard to isolate Shaffer's pass blocking from the rest of his linemates, odds are he was a very good pass blocker, because the Browns just did not give up sacks the past two years. In 2007, they were 5th in Adjusted Sack Rate, only allowing 19 sacks all year, and in 2008 they were 8th, allowing only 25 sacks. The Vikings, in contrast were 28th in ASR the past two years, allowing 38 and 43 sacks in 2007 and 2008 respectively.

Kevin Shaffer, like Vernon Carey, would be a very good answer to the Vikings' troubles at right tackle. He'd also free up Ryan Cook to challenge John Sullivan for the starting job at center, give Tarvaris (or Sage) some more time to throw the ball and allow the Vikings to successfully run the ball to the right. If he doesn't re-sign with the Browns, the Vikings need to do everything they can to bring Shaffer to Winter Park and get him signed.

[All statistics courtesy of Football Outsiders]

No Logo Needed Mock Draft--5th Pick

2009-03-12T12:22:00.003-05:00

The picks are coming fast and furious now. The Browns never made that next step after a successful 2007, which has them pick in the top ten for the 7th time in the 11th drafts since they returned to Cleveland. Drafting on behalf of the Mangenius are the good folks from No Logo Needed that organized this mock draft.

With the fifth pick in the draft, the Cleveland Browns select:

Rey Maualuga, LB, USC

A big reason behind why we decided to start this mock draft was because we were annoyed at the national media. Most mock drafts on the NFL Network and ESPN has the Browns selecting Malcolm Jenkins.

Sure, the Browns need help on defense and the secondary was inconsistent, but the cornerback position is the least of the team's problems. In 2008, the Browns defense allowed an average of 151.9 yards rushing per game. The Browns lost to the Bengals 14-0 on Dec. 21 as Cedric Benson ran for 171 yards on 38 carries and back-up quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick was 5-for-9 passing for 55 yards.

First and foremost, the Browns need to look to trade down and obtain some more draft picks. This will prove impossible since that’s the goal of most teams. The Browns also would be interested in Aaron Curry, but he is long gone.

With new coach Eric Mangini, the Browns will stick with the 3-4. So linebacker is the Browns' biggest need in the draft. The Browns need an edge pass rusher to fill Willie McGinest's position, but outside linebacker is one of the deepest positions in this draft. That brings us to the void in the middle of the defense left by the departure of Andre Davis.

Maualuga is a nasty middle linebacker, the type of player that can bring attitude to a defense that sorely needs an identity. He is built perfectly to line up in the 3-4. Peter King called him Ray Lewis, Jr. and Jon Gruden said Maualuga is the type of player to build a defense around.

Maualuga is known for his big hits and aggressive style of play. That should fit perfectly on the strong side of the Browns 3-4 defense next to D'Qwell Jackson. Pairing Jackson's sideline-to-sideline speed with Maualuga's power behind the mammoth Shaun Rogers, should make the Browns strong up the middle and help them slow down the opposition's rushing attack.

Can you name a Pro Bowl defensive lineman or cornerback from the successful 3-4 defense in Pittsburgh? In Baltimore? No. But you can reel off a list of who's who of linebackers. It's time the Browns start making the some names of their own.

And another highlight video, just because:

No Logo Needed Mock Draft--4th Pick

2009-03-12T08:22:00.003-05:00

After a rough year filled with injuries the Seahawks are looking to jump back into contention, something that shouldn't be too hard, considering they play in the NFC West. They've had a good off season, bringing in T.J. Houshmandzadeh and defensive tackle Colin Cole. They have a chance to add yet another quality piece with the fourth pick. Dave Krieg's Strike Beard is making the pick on behalf of Seattle.

With the fourth pick of the 2009 NFL Draft, the Seattle Seahawks select:

Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech

I don't really like college football. Any sport that doesn't have a playoff system won't easily win my attention or respect, so I don't follow the game that closely. Under normal circumstances, I'd tell you that blogs like Field Gulls, Seahawk Addicts or Seahawks Draft Blog could give you a
better, more informed opinion than I could.

But these are not normal circumstances, and Michael Crabtree is not a typical player. Even after addressing our desperate need at WR by signing T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Seattle will select the best player available: The game-breaking Crabtree.

As an NFC West fan, I get to watch Larry Fitzgerald torch my Seahawks twice a year. In 2008, I got the added bonus of watching Fitz almost carry Arizona to a World Championship. Housh isn't Fitz. Neither is Branch or Burleson... Hell, even Steve Largent wasn't the dominant big-play threat that Fitzgerald is right now.

Even with his foot surgery, and even after being revealed as 6'1" instead of 6'3", drafting Crabtree is the best shot the Seahawks will have over the next few years to get "their Fitzgerald."

Selecting Crabtree isn't just a "build for the future" move, either. With Housh across from him, a (hopefully) healthy Branch in the slot, budding Pro-Bowler John Carlson at TE, and Matt Hasselbeck throwing the ball, Crabtree could make an immediate impact as Seattle's "home run" threat.

The Seahawks aim to return to the top of the NFC West in 2009. Michael Crabtree is the player most likely to help make that happen in this year's draft class.

No Logo Needed Mock Draft--3rd Pick

2009-03-11T08:40:00.002-05:00

The No Logo Draft marches on. With Stafford and Eugene Monroe off the board, the Chiefs are up. They've had a very productive off season, adding new management, a new coach and a new quarterback, but aside from Cassel, the player the Chiefs choose is going to be the center piece of their rebuilding effort. Making the pick on behalf of the Chiefs is The KC Chiefs News.

With the third pick of the 2009 NFL draft, the Kansas City Chiefs select:

Aaron Curry, OLB, Wake Forest

Having addressed their quarterback need in the Matt Cassel trade, look for the Chiefs to address the other side of the ball with the third overall pick. Todd Haley could be tempted to draft a wide receiver (Crabtree) given his coaching history but Linebacker remains their most pressing need on defense, besides defensive end. This being a weak draft for defensive end, linebacker Aaron Curry is the most logical pick for the chiefs.

The chiefs have declined to re-sign starting linebackers Rocky Boiman and Pat Thomas and have released veteran Donnie Edwards making them somewhat thin at the position. They have traded for Mike Vrabel, which would obviously be a great mentor for the young Curry.

The Wake Forest product is an absolute must if the Chiefs plan to move to a 3-4 defense, Curry on one side and Derrick Johnson on the other would provide the necessary pass rushing personnel for a team that set the record for the least amount of sacks in a season.

No Logo Needed Mock Draft (1st and 2nd Pick)

2009-03-10T08:02:00.004-05:00

Due to the insane amount of knowledge that I know about the Vikings, and my amazing draft skillz (yes, that "z" was on purpose, and yes, it was appropriate), the folks at No Logo Needed (an amazing Cleveland Browns blog, for those of you who picked the AFC version of the Vikings as their second favorite team) asked me to participate in a mock draft. Now, I'll be doing my normal previews of the various prospects that the Vikings' might draft, but I couldn't pass up an opportunity to show that I'm smarter than Brad Childress and make the 22nd selection for the Vikings.

Now, due to a really busy day at work (and really, my week is swamped, so having some free content is nice), I wasn't able to post the first selection in the draft yesterday. The picks are going once every 24 hours (but sometimes sooner than that, because all of the folks participating are better at this than Mike Tice), so I'll be posting them as soon as I get them (with some analysis every couple of picks or so). And these guys are good--I mean, you know you care a lot (and therefore likely know a lot) if you're writing about the Lions, or Rams, or any of those other teams that just aren't as good as the Purple (zing!). So, without further ado, the mock draft.

With the first pick of the 2009 NFL draft, on behalf of the Detroit Lions, the Wayne Fontes Experience, a great blog to check out if you want to learn more about our NFC North "competitor", selects:

Matthew Stafford, QB, University of Georgia

Why Stafford? The Lions current quarterback depth chart reads as follows:

1. Daunte Culpepper (Hasn't had a good season in 5 years, played at a weight close to 3 bills in '08)
2. Drew Stanton (Not good enough to outplay Dan "Ran out of the end zone" Orlovsky for the number 2 in '08, is on the cusp of "BUST" status)
3. Drew Henson (Seriously?)

That's why the Lions pick Stafford.

They have needs all over the field, on both sides of the ball. I was tempted to make a "safe" pick, such as an OT like Baylor's Jason Smith or Virginia's Eugene Monroe, or Wake Forest LB Aaron Curry. All project to be first line players, long-time starters. But the need for a quality QB, something the Lions haven't had since the glory days of Bobby Layne, is just too glaring. Stafford is the highest rated quarterback in the draft, and has the skill set to become an impact player.

The fact the Lions have drafted outright 1st round disasters at quarterback like Joey Harrington, Andre Ware and Chuck Long over the past 20 years, and Matt Millen went on a drunken skill player binge during his tenure (only Calvin Johnson remains in Detroit), cannot deter GM Martin Mayhew and head coach Jim Schwartz from addressing their greatest need, that being a franchise player under center.

Plus, the Lions do have the 20th pick of the 1st round, and the 1st pick of the 2nd, so other needs can be easily addressed later in the draft.

With the second pick of the 2009 NFL No Logo Needed Draft, the St. Louis Rams select:

Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia

According to DraftCountdown.com:

It's common knowledge that the Rams have been aching to address their offensive line for a while now and unlike last year, when Jake Long was selected one pick ahead of them, they should have no trouble landing a top blocker in the 2009 NFL Draft.

Orlando Pace has been one of the best in the business for more than a decade but he is now in his mid-30's and injuries have really begun to take their toll. On the other side, former first round pick Alex Barron continues to disappoint and the Rams would like nothing more than to bring in a capable replacement.

Eugene Monroe might not be as flashy as some of the other top offensive tackles in this draft but he has a very good chance to be the first blocker off the board. Not only is Monroe a terrific all-around player who can be effective as both a pass and run blocker but he is also a much safer choice than a guy like Andre Smith because there are no concerns about his size, position or character. Monroe may not have as much upside as Andre Smith or Jason Smith but his floor is a lot higher and that's a good thing when you're talking about giving a guy $30 million in guaranteed money.

Don't discount the value of program pedigree either and Monroe is following in the footsteps of former Cavaliers D'Brickashaw Ferguson and Branden Albert, who have both handled the transition to the next level well.

The Sullivan Era Begins (Hopefully)

2009-03-05T13:28:00.004-05:00

Matt Birk has signed with the Ravens, which means that next year the Vikings line will be led by second year center John Sullivan. I don't know enough about offensive line play to know how big an effect this will have on the Vikings' line, but everyone seems to agree that Birk played quite well last year. Mike Lombardi thinks it's going to be a big deal for the Purple, but the real question is not whether Birk was let go a year (or two) too early (and it's better to let someone go a year too early than a year too late), but whether John Sullivan can play as well as Birk did.

And yes, he's young, but what people are forgetting is that Birk was once unproven too. He became the Vikings starting center in his third year, replacing Pro Bowler Jeff Christy, who had signed with the Buccaneers. And everyone was worried about the young, unproven Birk taking over for the experienced Christy. Of course, everyone had forgotten that Christy had been unproven when he became the Vikings' starting center in his second season.

And let's not forget--the Vikings' line wasn't that great last year. According to Football Outsiders, they were only 15th in adjusted line yards and 28th in Adjusted Sack Rate. And while Birk played well last year, the Vikings still had trouble running the ball up the middle, finishing 19th in rushing yards on runs between the guards.

So if the Vikings' think Sullivan can step in for Birk and play as well as he did last year, that's good enough reason for me not to be too worried. As Kevin Seifert points out, if they'd wanted to extend him, they would have done so earlier. I'd feel a little better if they had found a better right tackle in free agency (which at this point likely will have to happen through the draft, though there are some short term solutions available) so that Ryan Cook could back up both center and right tackle, rather than start, but that hasn't happened yet. Either way, the Purple were going to have to replace Birk at some point, which is why they drafted Sullivan last year.

More on Birk's signing:

Pacifist Viking, Daily Norseman and Grant's Tomb on Birk's signing

John Sullivan speaks with Access Vikings

Joe Flacco is excited to play with his new center

Randball chronicles the timeline of Birk's free agency

Killing Time: No Cutler, No Nobody

2009-03-04T10:54:00.003-05:00

The Broncos are insisting that Jay Cutler is not available for trade. Not really all that surprising (Let's be honest--there isn't a person in a front office position in any sport willing to take the risk of trading a 25 year old Pro Bowler under contract for three more years), but still disappointing. I guess it was a nice dream while it lasted.

And now that the dream has withered in the sun, the Vikings no longer have a chance to make a significant upgrade to their team via free agency. While they were busy pursuing Housh and Cutler (and resigning Jim Kleinsasser), almost every player they could have pursued signed somewhere else without even visiting Winter Park. And, if they're not careful, they might lose Matt Birk as well (though whether its a good idea to re-sign the 32 year old center is a whole other issue).

I liked that the Vikings' made a play for Housh and that they tried to trade for Cutler. And the Rosenfels trade does upgrade the quarterback position, even if it only brings it up to "slightly-below average". But the Vikings need to upgrade the right side of their offensive line, they need more depth at cornerback and defensive tackle and they need someone to return punts and possibly kicks (if they don't trust Darius Reynaud to stay healthy). And they haven't even hosted a single player that might address those needs.

It was obvious that the Vikings wouldn't be able to address all of their needs via free agency. But it was also obvious that they wouldn't be able to do so via the draft also (they just have too many needs). And at this point, it looks like the draft is the only option they have left, which means that, one year after a hugely successful foray into free agency, the Vikings failed to make any real improvements during free agency because they didn't try hard enough.

Dreaming Of Cutler

2009-03-03T09:54:00.003-05:00

It's clear the Vikings are pushing hard for Jay Cutler. That's the good news. The bad news? He's not going to be easy, or cheap, to get. Is he worth it?

In a word, yes.

Cutler's a 25 year old quarterback that is coming off a year in which he made the Pro Bowl and was one of the best quarterbacks in the league. He would be an instant passing game. Last year, he threw 25 touchdowns and completed 62.3% of 616 pass attempts for 4,526 yards. He averaged 7.1 yards per attempt while only getting sacked 11 times. He was 5th in DYAR and 8th in DVOA last year and 8th and 11th in 2007, his first year of starting. He was really, really good.

Of course, like all players, he has his detractors. The two arguments you hear against Cutler are that he throws a lot of interceptions and that he has yet to lead his team to a winning record, let alone the playoffs. Both of those can be partially explained by the fact that the Broncos were awful defensively the past two years. In 2008, they gave up the third most points in the NFL, allowing their opponents to score 28 a game, which was even worse than their performance in the NFL, when they gave up 25.6 points per game, the fifth worst in the NFL. As we learned the past few years, a team's record is not a very good way to measure a quarterback's performance. Gus Frerotte had a winning record last year, and Tarvaris Jackson had a winning record the year before. When Daunte Culpepper was putting up historic numbers for the 2003 and 2004 Vikings, it wasn't enough to win 10 games because the defense was so awful.

And when your defense is gives up a lot of points, it means your quarterback has to throw the ball a lot against a defense that knows its coming. And when the defense knows you're going to do something, it makes it a lot easier for them to stop. So while Cutler threw 18 interceptions last year, and 14 the year before, its not that surprising considering how often he was passing and how often he was passing against a defense expecting the pass. And even though he threw 18 interceptions, he only threw them on 3.0% of his passes, a number that's more than respectable. To put that in context, Gus Frerotte threw interceptions on 5.0% of his passes last year, Sage Rosenfels threw picks on 5.0% of his passes and Brett Favre threw interceptions on 4.2% of his passes.

So, no matter what people may say, Cutler is good. Really good. And he's signed through the 2011 season. Which means that most likely, the Vikings are going to have to give up a lot in draft picks and likely more than the first and two third rounders they gave up for Jared Allen, whose price tag was lowered by his lack of a long term deal. I'm talking something like two first rounders, with maybe a late rounder or two thrown ni. But would that be worth it?

I think so. Remember--he's young. He's only three years into his career, which means he'll be here a long time, especially if the Vikings sign him to an extension. He'd be worth the 22nd round pick easily. And with him, the Vikings would likely be drafting in the 20s again next year. Draft picks are for acquiring young players and first round draft picks are for acquiring young impact players. And Cutler is a young impact player and is likely going to be better than any player the Vikings would take in the first round the next two years. The Purple have had six draft picks in the second half of the first round in the past 10 years. With those picks, they've drafted the following players:

Year	Player	Draft Position	Position
2006	Chad Greenway	17^th	LB
2005	Erasmus James	18^th	DE
2004	Kenechi Udeze	20^th	DE
2001	Michael Bennett	27^th	RB
2000	Chris Hovan	25^th	DT
1999	Dimitrius Underwood	29^th	DE

Would you trade two of those players for Jay Cutler? I know I would. The only player on that list that's even approached Pro Bowl caliber at any point is Chad Greenway and possibly Chris Hovan. And neither of them play a position as important as quarterback.

I know that this is probably a pipe dream. But it's a fun pipe dream and one I'm glad the Vikings are pursuing. And while the Broncos might not be willing to part with Cutler for anything less than a quarterback (which the Vikings don't have) or a Herschel Walker type deal, if they're willing to give him up for less, then the Vikings need to be willing to give that up for a quarterback that's actually good enough to win the Super Bowl. And make no mistake about it--if you add Jay Cutler to this Vikings' team, they are not only good enough to win the Super Bowl, they're good enough to be the favorite.

Housh signs with Seahawks, Nate Washington signs with Titans

2009-03-02T17:35:00.003-05:00

Well this sucks. Two of the best wide receivers available signed with teams that aren't the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings' first choice was obviously T.J. Houshmandzadeh , but he's apparently signing with the Seahawks (and just when I memorized how to spell his name). And while the Vikings were focused on Housh, a receiver that may have been the Vikings' back up plan, Nate Washington, signed with Tennessee.

After their success last year with free agents, I guess the Vikings inability to sign a single free agent makes sense in some kind of regression to the mean kind of way. It doesn't mean it sucks any less, however. With most of the quality free agents gone, the Vikings have yet to upgrade at any position, except for quarterback (and that was mainly an upgrade because of how bad the Vikings quarterbacks were last year). They still need to improve their offensive line, specifically right tackle, bring in a real quarterback (by prying Kurt Warner or Jay Cutler away from their current teams), find someone to return punts and kicks and improve their cornerback depth. And they could still use more talent at wide receiver as well (hence the whole "trying to sign T.J. Houshmandzadeh" thing). That's a lot of positions to improve during the course of one draft, but it's looking more and more like that will be the only way for the Purple to do so (Come on miracle trade for Jay Cutler... Come on miracle trade for Jay Cutler...)

Killing Time: Waiting For Godotmandzadeh

2009-03-02T10:47:00.004-05:00

T.J.'s left town now, which certainly doesn't bode well for the Vikings' chances at signing. Of course, if he's on the way to L.A., it might mean he's planning on signing with the Purple in a few years (sorry, cheap joke). As I wrote on Friday, I think Housh would be a great addition to the Vikings if they can sign him to a contract that doesn't kill their cap when his age catches up to him in a few years. He's big, he has great hands and he catches almost everything thrown his way. He's the perfect complement for Bernard Berrian in the same way that Chris Carter was the perfect complement for Randy Moss. And if there's one thing we should have learned in the past few years, its that while good wide receivers can't make a bad quarterback great, they can make him better. And if you have a bad quarterback throwing to bad receivers (like the Vikings did in 2006), you're really not going to enjoy the passing game.

Letting Housh leave town isn't the only bad thing that's happened to the Purple since free agency started. Pretty much everyone of their other targets have already signed with other teams or don't seem interested. Center/Guard Jason Brown has signed with the Rams, Laveranues Coles hasn't left the East Coast, and Mark Clayton re-upped with Tampa Bay. Matt Cassel was traded to the Chiefs (sketchy, sketchy, sketchy) and Matt Birk is planning on visiting a few other teams.

Of course, when a door closes, a window opens, and for the Vikings those windows are named Kurt Warner and Jay Cutler. Warner's planned a visit with Niners, which means that the Vikings need to do everything in his power to get Warner to Winter Park. And while they're busy trying to woo him, they need to see if they can talk Josh McDaniels into making the worst decision of his career and trading them Jay Cutler (Yes, he'd be worth 3 draft picks. Heck, he might even be worth four).

Killing Time: Rumor Craziness & Housh

2009-02-27T10:20:00.005-05:00

So far, the Vikings have done, well, nothing, aside from formalize the trade for Sage Rosenfels. I haven't seen or heard anything about which players are visiting Winter Park, or, really, anything new about any of their free agent targets. Negotiations continue with Matt Birk and Jim Kleinsasser, and the Purple have made offers to restricted free agents Fred Evans (a solid back up for the Williams Wall) and Naufahu Tahi (a horrible blocker who gained 37 receiving yards on 21 targets with a -77.4%DVOA and accumulated -77 DYAR). So really, no big changes except for a fun little rumor started by T.J. Houshmandzadeh who appears to enjoy flirting with every franchise's fanbase. As he said yesterday,

“I’m looking at teams I think have good coaches and good offensive lines and good running games. I have no idea if those teams are interested in me. If I can play with Adrian Peterson, can you imagine what I would do getting one-on-one coverage with Adrian Peterson? I am going to win 98.6 percent of the time with one-on-one coverage with him in the backfield.”

He's also contacted a radio station in Philly and is generally having a good time with being wanted (though I have no idea how he was able to know how often he could beat one-on-one coverage within a tenth of a percent). Would Housh (you type his name out more than once) be a good fit for the Vikings? The answer--it depends on the price.

If the Vikings can sign Housh that gives them a reasonable protection against his age 34, 35 and 36 seasons (the upcoming season is his age 32 season), he should definitely be brought in (I'm fine with them paying him for 4 or 5 years for 2 great and one good season, but not with them paying him for 6 or 7 seasons). He's averaged 1012 receiving yards a year over the last five years, and 89 catches. Last year, despite spending 13 games catching passes from Ryan Fitzpatrick, he still caught 92 passes for 904 yards. While he's not a deep threat (he has only 6 catches for over forty yards and 67 catches over 20 yards the last five years), he is an amazing possession receiver--he's not Randy Moss, he's Chris Carter. His worst catch percentage over the last five years is 66% and he's a first down machine, averaging 56 first down catches a year over the past five years and finishing 16th, 1st, 7th and 16th in first down catches in the last four years. He'd be the perfect fit for a West Coast offense, and the perfect complement for Bernard Berrian.

The only question mark is whether he can be signed without a Haynseworthian contract that guarantees it will ruin the Vikings' cap situation as Housh ages. If he can't, he's probably not worth it. If he can be signed for a reasonable (within the context of #1 receiver contracts), then the Vikings should do everything they can to sign him. At the very least, the Purple need to find out the answer.

Killing Time: Free Agency Eve

2009-02-26T10:58:00.004-05:00

As you've probably heard a hundred times already, teams are able to sign free agents starting at 11pm tonight. And we all hope (and think) that the Vikings will be active in the free agency market. After some of their top targets re-signed with their current teams, its not clear who they're likely to target in the market. They have needs at offensive line, cornerback, wide receiver and kick and punt returner. While there doesn't seem to be many corners worth signing (and they re-signed Charles Gordon to play nickel back and possibly return punts), there are still some intriguing linemen and wide receivers available.

One of the best lineman is Jason Brown, who started at center for the Ravens. He'll only be 26 during this upcoming season, and he was a dominant run blocker in the middle. While the Ravens' running backs were constantly injured, they still had a very good running game, ranking 9th in DVOA. And they were the most successful when they ran up the middle, averaging 4.40 yards per carry, the 10th best in the NFL (and better than the Vikings, who were 19th with 4.15 yards). He can also play guard, which allows the Vikings to play John Sullivan at center if he earns it, upgrading two positions at once.

Another possibility for the Purple is Laveranues Coles. The Jets cut him loose yesterday in order to get under the cap, and acquiring him would add another quality target for Tarvaris (or Sage). Last year, he caught 70 passes for 836 yards and 8 touchdowns. He caught 61% of the passes thrown his way, and was 24th and 36th in DYAR and DVOA (which would have put him well ahead of Bobby Wade for second in both categories on the Vikings). He's not much of a deep threat (he only caught 2 passes over 40 yards), but he'd be a quality possession receiver and would complement Bernard Berrian well. He might end up back with the Jets, however, so I wouldn't get your hopes up about seeing him in Purple.

If you're looking for more players worth targeting, Yahoo has a list of the top 100 free agents (h/t Football Outsiders). Don't be suprised to see the Vikings try and bring in Khalif Barnes, Mark Tauscher or Jon Stinchcom to play right tackle. Niners Nation has a good breakdown of those three, and the other available free agent tackles if you want to know more. And don't forget the twelve Vikings who are unrestricted free agents this year.

Quarterbacks:

Jason Winter compares Tarvaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels at Defensive Indifference.

Kevin Seifert puts Tarvaris in context. It's not pretty.

Combine:

Sports Illustrated and the National Football Post on the impact of the Combine on draft prospects.

Football Outsiders on the one part of the Combine that may actually be predictive. (And gives us a reason to be happy the Vikings' don't need a running back)

The Williams Wall:

Their court date is set for June 15th. The schedule hasn't been released yet, but if the Vikings have to play four games without the Williams Wall, they're going to be starting out the season yet another hole.

Get to Know 'Em: Sage Rosenfels

2009-02-24T07:33:00.003-05:00

It seems only fitting that as I spent my time yesterday writing about a long shot at quarterback, Pat White, the Vikings were busy getting to the brink of a deal with Houston for Sage Rosenfels. So while I'm happy to hear that the competitor for Tarvaris Jackson isn't going to be someone that Tarvaris will likely beat (I'm looking at you Gus), it just figures that the news of a trade would break right after I hit "Post" and used up what free time I had on Pat White.

Anyway (it's rough being me, isn't it?), as you probably recall, the Vikings' chased Rosenfels before this season. As I wrote then, Rosenfels is a very accurate passer (he completed 66.7% and 64.2% of his passes the last two years) who is one of the better quarterbacks at avoiding sacks:

"Another thing Rosenfels has going for himself is that he rarely gets sacked. He was only dropped once every 41 times he went back to pass, an astoundingly low rate. Rosenfels has only been sacked 10 times in his entire career and was sacked only once every 39.8 pass attempts. To put that in context, Tarvaris had about as many pass attempts (313), but was sacked 19 times last year, or once every 16.5 dropbacks, which isn't that bad of a sack rate (David Carr's sack rate is once every 9.4 drop backs)."

Rosenfels wasn't as succesful at avoiding sacks last year, going down 9 times in 183 drop backs, a rate of once every 20.3 pass plays. His sack rate wasn't helped by an offensive line that dropped from 10th to 16th in Adjusted Sack Rate last year. Of course, the Vikings were 28th in ASR last year, so he will be facing more pressure than in Houston if the Purple don't upgrade their line.

Another reason that Rosenfels may have been sacked more is that he was more willing to hang in the pocket for a deeper route to come open. His yards per attempt jumped from 6.67 YPA to 7.50YPA. He also completed 4 passes for more than 40 yards, the same as 2007 and 18 passes for more than 20 yards, which was one more than in 2007, despite running 63 fewer pass plays. He can get the ball downfield accurately and is willing to hang in the pocket to do so.

Of course, there's a reason why Rosenfels is available to the Vikings for a fourth round pick--he throws a lot of interceptions. He's thrown 22 in the past two years, which, when you consider he only had 414 pass attempt, is horrible. That's an interception rate of 5.3%, which would have lead the league last year (Frerotte was the actual leader at 5.0%). That interception rate is a big reason why he had fewer DYAR and a lower DVOA last year than Tarvaris Jackson.

His propensity to throw interceptions is the main reason Rosenfels likely isn't the best answer to the Vikings' quaterback situation. But, as I've said before, the time to find the best answer is long past. Cassel is going to be expensive and has big question marks about his ability to play under center without Randy Moss and Wes Welker, and while Garcia is probably a better answer, Childress doesn't seem to like him and he gets hurt too frequently. Rosenfels is an improvement on the "Gus and Tarvaris Traveling Sucking Spectacular" that we saw for most of last year, and that's probably enough. He's a legitimate contender for the starting job (unlike Frerotte), which means that if Tarvaris beats Rosenfels out, he'll have earned it with strong play. And at this point, that's enough for me to be happy about the Purple's quarterback situation.

Get to Know 'Em: Pat White

2009-02-23T12:57:00.003-05:00

For awhile now, I've been expecting (maybe even hoping) the Vikings would take quarterback Nate Davis out of Ball State in the second round if they decided to go the "sign a veteran and draft a future starter" route to improve at quarterback. That assumed that Davis would step up and claim a spot as a sure second round pick, something it seems he's not doing. But enough negativity (of which there is more than enough due to this threat from Brad Childress). Let's talk about a player that might actually be a long term answer to the Vikings' quarterback problems: Pat White.

Now, as I mentioned when I looked at the various quarterback prospects, the two most predictive statistics for college quarterbacks talented enough to go in the first or second round, are games started and completion percentage. And those are two stats in which Pat White did very well. He started 42 games in his college career, and completed 64.8% of his passes. And it seems that he just might have the arm to actually make the transition from Spread QB to NFL QB, which might raise his stock high enough to make the Lewin Forecaster applicable (it's only for QBs taken in the first and second rounds).

Of course, there are a couple of reasons why most teams don't see White as an NFL QB. He's only 6'1 and is under 200 lbs, likely making him the smallest quarterback in the league. The man's very breakable, and he had to sit out (or leave) games with injuries his sophomore, junior and senior seasons. And he was a run first quarterback in a spread offense--he threw less than 800 passes in his four years. If you're worried about Matt Cassel's ability to run the Vikings' offense from under center, you should definitely be worried about Pat White's ability to run an offense that isn't 80-90% shotgun formation (a problem almost every quarterback in the draft has, including Josh Freeman and Nate Davis thanks to the widespread use of the Spread).

So is Pat White the best answer to the Vikings' quarterback issues? Probably not, but I don't know if there is a "best answer" at this point. He obviously has some drawbacks, but if the scouts think he has the arm strength and the accuracy to play quarterback, he was more than productive enough in college to make him an interesting long term option, especially if the Purple put him on the same diet as Pat Williams.

Nevermind about Vernon Carey

2009-02-21T08:30:00.003-05:00

No need to get to know 'em now: he's signed a six year extension with the Dolphins worth $42 million (h/t to Chris for letting me know). Glad I spent all that time writing a post on him (and man, would he have been perfect for the Vikings). I guess I shouldn't rely on an anonymous agent's opinion (anyone want to bet that agent works with Carey's agent?) before getting too excited about a player. The Vikings still need to improve at right tackle, and with Carey off the market, how they'll try to go about doing so just became a lot less clear.

Get to Know 'Em: Vernon Carey

2009-02-20T09:12:00.003-05:00

While the players that were likely the Vikings' top targets all ended up with their current team at the franchise deadline, a new and intriguing option just became available: Vernon Carey, the starting right tackle for the Dolphins. Most expected Carey to be franchised by Miami, but the Dolphins declined to do so, leaving him willing to test the market and as the best option available for those teams looking to upgrade their line via free agency.

Carey is a 27 year old former first round pick (made by Rick Spielman) that's big enough (6'5", 333lbs), quick enough and young enough to lock down the right tackle position for the Vikings' for years to come. Of course, the problem is that the Purple aren't the only team that needs a new tackle--the Chargers and the Bears are among those who are likely to be interested. And without Jordan Gross or Max Starks to distract them, the competitors for Carey are likely to drive his price up. Luckily, the Vikings are willing to spend the money necessary to improve their team and Carey seems to be a priority.

While they used him at left tackle in 2007, Carey is best suited for right tackle, mainly due to lacking the quickness necessary to protect the blindside. Once he moved to the right side, he showed that he's a capable pass blocker, when not matched up every down with elite pass rushers, only giving up 4.5 sacks last year, and only getting flagged for one penalty, a false start (and not a single holding penalty). He's also a very good run blocker. Last year, the Dolphins averaged 4.51 yards per run behind the right tackle, 9th overall, a huge improvement from the 3.84 yards they'd averaged in 2007. In contrast, the Vikings averaged 3.61 yards per run behind the right tackle, 28th overall. The year before, when Carey was on the left side, the Dolphins averaged 5.05 yards on runs behind Carey, 4th overall, much better than the 3.99 yards they averaged behind Jake Long.

It seems clear that signing Carey would shore up the right side of the Vikings' line. He'd allow Childress to flip his play cards over and call running plays to the right side. He'd also improve the Vikings' quarterback play, whether or not they added a new quarterback, by improving the pass protection, something the Vikings' sorely need to do (they were 28th in Adjusted Sack Rate last year). Finally, he'd allow Ryan Cook to move back to center, the position he was drafted at, and compete with John Sullivan for the starting job. It's always better to have depth when you're trying out young players at important positions, and allowing Cook and Sullivan to battle it out in training camp makes it much more likely they'll end up with a decent replacement for Birk.

Aside from signing Jeff Garcia (which might not even be their best option), it appears that Vernon Carey should be the Vikings' top target when free agency starts next week. He'd address one of their biggest needs, improve their chances at a smooth transition from Matt Birk and allow the Vikings to run the ball to the right side. If nothing else, it'd sure be nice to see defenses have to spread their nine guys in the box out evenly, instead of stacking them over Bryant McKinnie and Steve Hutchinson.

Franchise Deadline Unkind to Vikings

2009-02-19T14:14:00.005-05:00

Three of the best possible free agents are no longer available anymore. The best offensive tackle, Jordan Gross re-signed with Carolina and the best cornerback, Nnamdi Asomugha, re-signed with Oakland. The latter was a move clearly designed by Asomugha and his agent to assure that he wouldn't be franchised by the Raiders for the rest of his career, as it includes an out clause after the 2010 season. In other, unhappy news, the second best corner on the marker, Dunta Robinson, was franchised by the Texans. He was probably the only potential target for the Vikings to be franchised (aside from Cassel, of course), though a few other players, such as RB/Returner Darren Sproles of the Chargers, OT Max Starks of the Steelers and WR Antonio Bryant of the Bucs might have been interesting signings had they not also been franchised.

While there are still some linemen worth pursuing in free agency (more on that later), the best way for the Vikings to address their need for depth at corner is now through the draft.

Killing Time: Hicks, Combine and Tackle Depth

2009-02-19T12:19:00.002-05:00

Maurice Hicks:
The Vikings waived Maurice Hicks yesterday, ending what was a failed free agent pick up. Hicks was brought in to improve the Vikings special teams, specifically their return games, even though he hadn't shown the ability to be anything other than a mediocre returner (as I pointed out when he signed). His signing was an example of valuing experience over talent, and it came back to hurt the Vikings, as he had a key fumble on a kickoff return against Tampa Bay, had 9 returns of less than 20 yards and never once returned a kickoff more than 40 yards. For a team built on defense and the running game (i.e., field position), having a good kick returner is important, which is why Hicks' signing was so damaging to the Vikings last year.

The Combine:
The Combine started yesterday, and while it's nowhere important, it can be a useful tool in evaluating draft prospects for the teams that approach it properly. Based on this interview with Rick Speilman, I think the Vikings do it right (h/t ESPN NFC North Blog). They aren't going to give too much weight to the workouts, but they are going to use it as a way to get a handle on the people these draft prospects are. The Vikings have done a good job in the draft since the infamous 2005 draft, and their approach to the Combine has certainly contributed to that.

Tackle Depth:
One of the things that I (along with most Viking's fans) have forgotten about is the impending resolution of the Williams Wall's legal battle over their suspension. Depending on the outcome, the Vikings might be short both of their starting tackles for the first four games of the season. And, even if they aren't suspended, the Williams' backups, Fred Evans and Ellis Wyms, are both free agents this year (although Evans is only a restricted free agent). The Vikings took LaTroy Guion in the fifth round last year to help at tackle, but additional depth would be nice, especially if Guion isn't ready to contribute after spending last year adjusting to the NFL. The National Football Post has a breakdown of the available free agent defensive tackles, and someone like Ryan Boschetti or Grady Jackson would be a welcome addition to the defensive line.

Get to Know 'Em: Jeff Garcia

2009-02-18T09:34:00.003-05:00

The second of the Vikings' two main options to replace Tarvaris Jackson (after Matt Cassel) is Jeff Garcia. He's a veteran with a proven track record coming off of three straight seasons with a quarterback rating over 90. In his ten seasons, he's had seven seasons with a completion percentage over 60%, including the last three years. Of course, it's that first number (ten seasons) that raises some big questions--is he too old, at 39, to be successful over a full season and in the playoffs?

And if he's not too old, would he fit in with the Vikings? Last year, Garcia played in 12 games for Tampa, completing 64.9% of his passes for 2712 yards and 12 touchdowns while throwing only 6 interceptions. It was the sixth straight season he failed to play in 16 games. Of course, one of the reason that he's missed games is that he's lost the starting job (or didn't start with it). The other reason is that he tends to get hurt. In 2006, he replaced Donovan McNabb after McNabb was hurt and led the Eagles to the second round of the playoffs. Of course, he only played in 8 regular season games. Two years ago, (when he should have been playing for the Purple) he missed two games with injuries and sat out a meaningless Week 17 game, and last year he lost his starting job after Week 1 to Brian Griese and then missed the Bucs' Week 15 loss to Atlanta with a calf injury, returning to put up back to back sub 75 QB Ratings in the last two weeks as Tampa flamed out of the playoff hunt.

Even at 38, however, he was still a very mobile quarterback, as the Vikings' learned all too well last year. While he doesn't scramble as much as he used to (he's averaged about 10 yards per game the last three years) he has the ability to escape the pass rush and keep the play alive. His sack rate was only 5.8%, and his career sack rate is only 4.8%. In contrast, Tarvaris Jackson was sacked 8.7% of the time he dropped back last year, and has a career sack rate of 7.6%. And he's outperformed his offensive line significantly, as the Bucs line had an adjusted sack rate of 6.5% (while Adjusted Sack Rate and sack rate are not the same stat, that seems to be a large enough gap to illustrate that Garcia's good at avoiding sacks). His ability to scramble would certainly help behind a line like the Vikings that was significantly worse at preventing sacks than Tampa's (the Purple's ASR was 8.8%).

Another of the big issues that Garcia has, however, is a weak arm. He only had 5 completions for more than 40 yards last year (or one more than Tarvaris and three fewer than Gus Frerotte). He's averaged 6.64 yards per attempt over the last two years, and 6.55 YPA last year. That would have put him 10th in YPA last year as a team, which seems to show he still has the ability to make plays, but in actuality, his high YPA has more to do with a lack of negative plays than it does high yardage plays, as he was 22nd in completions for more than 20 yards. Of course, for a team like the Vikings, avoiding sacks is almost as important as big passing plays, so his mobility might actually offset his lack of an arm.

If the Vikings do decide to go with Jeff Garcia at quarterback, it would fill the position with a capable quarterback this year, and with a quarterback that Tarvaris Jackson can learn a lot from. Garcia rarely gets criticized for his decision making (his career interception rate is 2.3%). He comes with some drawbacks though--he doesn't have the arm to stretch the field, which makes it less likely that his presence would force defenses to remove defenders from the box (though I doubt the Vikings would see 9 men in the box with Garcia under center) and he's not going to make it through the season without getting hurt. Tarvaris Jackson will be playing quarterback for the Vikings if they sign Garcia to start. And, depending on when Garcia gets hurt, Tarvaris could be playing during the stretch run or the playoffs (which seems likely considering that Garcia tends to wear down rather than get hurt early). Finally, signing Garcia (to what I assume would be a one year contract) means that the Vikings would have only delayed the need to find a franchise quarterback for a year, leaving them with only John David Booty under contract at the end of the year. Basically, they'd still have to address the position in the draft (with either Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman or Nate Davis) or guarantee themselves another off season with massive questions about the position. I don't think that signing Garcia is necessarily a bad way to upgrade at quarterback, but its certainly not a great way to do so (like it would have been two years ago). The fact that he's the first or second best option (depending on how you feel about Cassel) says more about the way that the Vikings have mismanaged their roster than it does about him. Can they win the Super Bowl with Garcia under center? If Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson can win Super Bowls, so can Garcia. Is Garcia likely to be in good enough shape to lead a team through the Playoffs (or even be able to play)? Considering what happened at the end of last year and in the playoffs against the Giants the year before (when he had a 60.5 QB Rating), I doubt it. Which means that while Garcia might get the Vikings another home playoff game, it doesn't seem any more likely that he'll be able to win it at 39 years old than Tarvaris would be.

Killing Time: Contingency Plans

2009-02-17T09:29:00.003-05:00

One of the things that makes the off season so interesting is that the Vikings can address their different needs (Quarterback, Cornerback, Offensive line) in so many different ways. What they do in the draft will depend on what they do in free agency, which will depend on whether or not they make a trade which will depend on what they do in free agency and effect how they go about their draft.

Think about it like this: If the Vikings sign Jeff Garcia to play quarterback, they've addressed that position for the season, but still need a long term solution. They also still need a corner back and bring in some help for the positions right of Steve Hutchinson. Odds are they won't have any good options for corners in free agency, but there are a few decent right tackles available. So now their first round pick is still wide open--could be Kansas St. QB Josh Freeman, could be a lineman or it could be a cornerback (with Ball St. QB Nate Davis as their second round pick). If they trade for Matt Cassel, then they're probably out a first round pick, but you know they'll be targeting cornerbacks in the second round (especially if they bring in some depth on the line). And if they can't get Cassel or Garcia, they probably have to trade up for Mark Sanchez if they want a player that has a chance of competing with Tarvaris for the starting job (please don't let this happen). Everything is contingent upon everything. Which makes any kind of mock draft just so much idle speculation until after free agency at least and why it's so hard to figure out which player the Vikings' should pick in the first round.

More on Cassel:

DC from Grant's Tomb breaks down Cassel after watching the rebroadcast of the Pats-Jets game.

Greg Cossel of NFL Films gives his thoughts on the reason for Cassel's success. If he's right, it's not a good sign for a team with a coach that has a slavish adherence to his own system. (h/t Football Outsiders)

Cornerbacks and The Window

2009-02-13T13:39:00.003-05:00

As I've been saying, the Vikings need to do everything they can to win now, because while they have Super Bowl caliber players throughout their roster, they won't have them for long. Their window of opportunity is starting to close.

Now, I know that the Vikings have a host of young stars--Visanthe Shaincoe, Kevin Williams, E.J. Henderson and Bernard Berrian turn 29 this season, Madieu Williams turns 28, and Jared Allen, Adrian Peterson, Chad Greenway and Brian Robison are all going to be 27 or younger. The Purple's roster has a young core that is supremely talented.

Here's the thing though--it's not enough to just have a good core if you want to win the Super Bowl. You need to have depth and you need to be very good at almost every position. And there are some key positions that the Vikings are not going to be good enough at if they don't act this off season, specifically cornerback. First off, if nothing is done between now and the beginning of free agency next year, the Vikings are going to lose both Cedric Griffin and Antoine Winfield, since both are unrestricted free agents after this year.

Secondly, while Antoine Winfield's play was clearly good enough to get him into the Pro Bowl this year, he's also turning 32 this year. While he might be the type of player that can continue to play at a high level into his thirties, he might not be, which means that committing to him long term at 33 years old is risky, especially if the Vikings are going to be counting on him to be their top corner.

Finally, I'm not even sure that losing Cedric Griffin is that big of a deal. While he played well in spurts this year, he hasn't shown that he can be counted on as the Vikings' second corner, let alone their top corner. In fact, I'd be a lot happier with the secondary if he was the nickleback, instead of a starter.

Luckily for the Purple, there are some options out there. There are two top corners who are unrestricted free agents: Nnamdi Asomugha of the Raiders, who is generally considered the best cornerback (if not the best defensive player) in the NFL and Dunta Robinson, of the Texans, who returned from knee and hamstring injuries five games into last year and proved that he was still an elite cornerback. Of course, both Asomugha and Robinson are likely to remain with their teams, with the Raiders franchising Asomugha (what, you think he'd resign with them? He's not stupid) and Robinson either signing a long term deal or getting franchised. If either of them makes it through to the free agency period, the Vikings should do what they can to bring in a young shutdown corner to pair with Winfield next year and take over from him as he gets older.

If not, they'll be in a good position to pick up a corner in the first round of the draft. D.J. Moore of Vanderbilt, Vontae Davis of Illinois and Sean Smith of Utah all look like they might be available to the Purple with their 22nd pick (and I'll be previewing all three of them in the run up to the draft). We saw what a rookie corner can do this year, as Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Mike Jenkins, Antoine Cason and Aqib Talib all contributed to their teams after being picked in the first round last year. The right choice could provide the Vikings' with a shut down corner for years to come.

But no matter how they do it, the Vikings need to bring in a quality cornerback this off season, because if they don't, they'll be forced to scramble next off season to replace or resign their starters, and if they fail, they'll have allowed their young star's window of opportunity to shut through their inaction.

Killing Time: Quarterbacks, Free Agent WRs and Money Issues

2009-02-11T13:29:00.003-05:00

I'm working on a bigger post for Jeff Garcia (who seems to be Vikings' fans other favorite choice to start at quarterback next year) similar to the one I wrote on Matt Cassel. For whatever reason, I'm not really all that excited about Garcia, despite the fact that he seems to still have it after playing well last year. More on that soon.

In other news:

Brett Favre is trying to trick the Jets into releasing him by retiring and then coming back and wrecking their cap number and plans for the season. Remember folks, no one loves the game more than Favre, unless, of course, he's asked to put in work in the offseason (or run an offense the way his coach wants him too).

Jason Winter (spelled his name right this time!) makes a case for acquiring Byron Leftwich to be the Vikings' starting quarterback next year. I don't think he's the answer though. He's too immobile (while his sack rate is only 5.4% for his career, it's been 7.7% and 9.4% the past two years in limited action), which really doesn't work well with a line that's bad at pass blocking (the Vikings were 28th in Adjusted Sack Rate) and a slow throwing motion (he had 6 fumbles in three games with Atlanta). He's also inaccurate (he only has one year where he completed 60% of his passes, and his career mark is only 58.6%), which Jason mentions in the comments.

Michael Lombardi breaks down the wide receiver free agent class. If he's right about the quality of this class (or lack there of), the Vikings better hope that Sidney Rice makes the leap he was supposed to make last year. And they're also going to have to look elsewhere to find a decent punt returner.

The Vikings are offering a lawaway plan for tickets. Pretty crazy, but if it keeps me from having to read stories about possible black outs every week, that's great.

Kevin Seifert breaks down the cap situation for each of the four NFC North teams. It looks like there's going to be a lot of new additions in the division this year, because every team has a ton of cap room. Which is just another reason why the Vikings have to remain aggressive this offseason and continue to improve their roster.

Get to Know 'Em: Matt Cassel

2009-02-10T12:03:00.006-05:00

The more I look into Matt Cassel, the more unsure I become about whether or not I'd like the Vikings to trade for him. Unlike last year, when an in depth look at Derek Anderson showed his inconsistency and the unlikeliness of his continued success, Cassel's stats send a lot more mixed messages. And since I've been spending the past two days writing memos, I'm going to break this post up into reasons Cassel is the answer for the Purple at quarterback and reasons the Vikings should stay away.

Why the Vikings should trade for Cassel:
He's young (26), he's accurate enough for the West Coast Offense (he completed 63.4% of his passes) and he's been well coached. He had the 10th highest QB rating in the NFL last year, the 11th highest completion percentage and he doesn't really turn the ball over, only throwing 11 interceptions. He also had some monster games (and when I say monster games, I mean actual monster games-not the 11-17 for 163 yards and 4 touchdowns type monster games we've been used to the past few years), including two games with over 400 yards passing and another with 345 passing yards. He had seven games with a QB rating over 100 and five games with 3 or more touchdowns. While it's true that he inherited a passing game that included Randy Moss and Wes Welker, he was also behind an offensive line that finished 26th overall in adjusted sack rate and gave up the fifth most sacks in the league. He showed he can successfully lead an offense that scored 42 touchdowns when given the right pieces. And it's not like the Vikings are completely devoid of talent in their receiving corps--Bernard Berrian and Bobby Wade aren't Moss and Welker (there's an understatement), but they aren't Troy Williamson either. And Sidney Rice is entering his third year, which, if he can stay healthy, is the year that many wide receivers end up breaking out. And, of course, Sammy Morris is no Adrian Peterson. (And let's all just gloss over the whole coaching comparison so we don't get too depressed).

Why the Vikings Should Stay Away:
There's a lot of evidence that Cassel isn't going to be an elite quarterback, which means that the Vikings shouldn't pay him or the Patriots like he's an elite quarterback. Here's his projection from this year's Pro Football Prospectus, which is based on quarterbacks that are similar to him (which, prior to this year did not include a lot of good quarterbacks) would do if they got to play 16 games in New England's offense against New England's schedule:
299-478, 62.5%, 3751 YDs, 27 TDs, 23 INTs, 7.5 YPA 17.0% DVOA

And here's the actual statistics he put up:
327-516, 63.4%, 3693 YDS, 21 TDs, 11 INTs, 6.2 YPA 6.4% DVOA (20th)

Pretty similar if you ask me. He threw a few more passes, completed a slightly higher percentage of them and threw a lot fewer interceptions, but his DVOA is lower than his projection, as is his yards per attempt. In fact, he had a lower DVOA than Tarvaris Jackson (though, one has to remember that while DVOA is adjusted for competition, Tarvaris Jackson didn't exactly play against a murderers row of pass defenses, and, since it's a rate state, it's easier to put a higher one in fewer games). It definitely makes it seem like Cassel was a product of the talent around him, rather than an equal part of the offense. If that was true, however, it would seem to follow that he'd do well against the bad pass defenses and struggle against the good ones. So was this a case of Cassel putting up big stats against bad defenses and struggling against good ones?

This following chart has Cassel's QB Rating per week compared with his opponent's QB Rating against.

It shows a young quarterback that had some struggles, but also had some amazing games. His best game came against Denver's awful pass defense at home, while his worst game was quite clearly, his 12th, which came against the Steelers. Not all that surprising, considering it was on the road, in the cold, against a top pass defense and the Patriots were missing Wes Welker for most of the game. He also bounced back afterward and finished strong, with a QB rating over 100 each of the last three weeks. He did only face five teams that had above average pass defenses by QB Rating against (and the Steelers were the only top five pass defense he faced). He did have some success against them, however, posting a QB Rating of 114.0 against Miami and a QB rating of 108.1 against Oakland.

Recommendation:
Even after going this in depth, I'm not really sure whether Cassel is the long term answer for the Vikings. The problem is that I'm not sure if there's any other realistic option for the Vikings' this year. I wish I trusted Childress to evaluate quarterbacking talent (of course, if I did, I doubt I'd be writing this post about Cassel because the Vikings wouldn't have an issue at quarterback), because then I'd say that it came down to what the scouts said--were Cassel's big games due to Moss and Welker and Belichick, or were they a result of finally getting a chance to show off his talent (along with having Moss, Welker and Belichick's offense). The stats seem to support the latter, but there's enough there to think that the struggles were an inexperience thing, rather than a lack of talent, and I'm not sure if anyone can tell the difference without breaking down Cassel's tape. There isn't a clear drop off in performance as the season went on like there was with Anderson. So if the Vikings' think he's the answer, I'm not sure I disagree.

I guess that means it comes down to what the Vikings would have to give up to get him. As I've said before (and will expand on later), the window of opportunity for this team to make a run at the Super Bowl is a lot smaller than one might think. Giving up a first and third round pick for the second straight year is worth it to acquire a franchise quarterback, just like it was worth it to acquire a franchise defensive end. I'm not so sure that's Cassel, however. If they give up less than that, such as only a first rounder, or even less than that, then I think they should jump on it. Yes, they'll need to pay Cassel a big chunk of change, but I trust that the cap wizards at Winter Park can make it work (and they currently have $28 million in cap room to work with). At the very least, the Purple need to inquire about trading for Cassel and find out whether they have a similar definition of Cassel's value as New England does.

Killing Time: Cassel, Tarvaris and Easy Roads

2009-02-09T10:32:00.005-05:00

I'm working on a long post on Matt Cassel that, I hope, will be as give as much insight into Cassel as the insight my post on Derek Anderson provided last year (yeah, I'm basically a great football mind--like Bill Walsh/Bill Belichick combined and then raised to the power of Vince Lombardi). The plan is to answer the question--is Cassel worth acquiring? Is he Derek Anderson or Tony Romo?

Two quick links to tide you over while I'm working on that:

Jason Winter defends Tarvaris Jackson's performance at Defensive Indifference. I'm not so sure he's wrong, but the thing is, with the way the Vikings are constructed (more on this later, but the Purple are older than you think in some key spots), the Vikings no longer have the time to try and turn Tarvaris into a Super Bowl caliber quarterback.

Before you start worrying about another Steelers' dynasty in the AFC, you should take into account the path the Steelers took to the Championship. According to the folks at Cold, Hard Football Facts, it was the easiest path through the postseason of any Super Bowl winner. Ever. And that includes 1982, when the season was marred by labor strife.

Cassel Franchised

2009-02-06T08:33:00.002-05:00

The Patriots franchised Matt Cassel. So he's out (there's no way the Vikings sign him now, and I doubt they'd be willing to give up the ransom the Patriots are going to ask for). If you're looking for possible answers to the Vikings' quarterback woes, I suggest you check out yesterday's post on quarterbacks, which now includes statistics actually produced by the college quarterbacks, instead of the made up ones (shoddy research gets me again!) I had before.

Get to Know 'Em: Quarterback Prospects

2009-02-05T14:21:00.004-05:00

[This post has been edited to reflect reality. I had Matt Stafford's, Mark Sanchez', Josh Freeman's and Nate Davis' numbers completely wrong, completely changing my conclusion. Sloppy research on my part, but in my defense, its not easy to find statistics on college players for some reason. I blame ESPN (who had some wrong numbers and don't give career stats for college players). Thanks to the Anonymous commenter who pointed it out.]

It’s quite obvious that the Vikings need to do something about the quarterback position this off season. Another year with Tarvaris (or a mediocre to bad veteran that was signed to back him up) under center isn’t going to cut it. One of the ways they might address the position is by drafting a QB (which, would, I think, probably be a lot more rational than trying to acquire Matt Cassell or wagering it all next year on an over the hill veteran like Jeff Garcia or *shudder* Brett Favre). Of course, if they’re going to draft a quarterback the need to find one that can contribute by 2010 at the latest, which likely means drafting one in the first or second round. Of course, if they’re going to draft a quarterback, they need to draft a good one. So how do you know which college quarterback is going to be good? Well, luckily for us, Dave Lewin at Football Outsiders has developed a system that’s pretty accurate at determining which quarterbacks are worth taking. In a nutshell:

Lewin found that there are only two college QB statistics that reliably, and independent of all others, predict NFL QB performance: completion percentage and games started. Completion percentage is obvious: QBs kind of have to be able to hit their target. Generally, you’re looking for a 60% completion percentage and around 35 games started in college.

Lewin’s system only applies to QBs drafted in the first two rounds because, as Lewin showed, pro scouts are good enough to separate top talent from lesser talent. Which is the more games a player started, the better (not to mention the more talented quarterbacks tend to play earlier in their career in college). The guys who go after the first 2 rounds are generally there for good reason (Tom Brady excluded). When a team ends up with a bust, it’s usually because they either reached (*cough* Tarvaris Jackson *cough*) or because the quarterback didn’t play enough for their flaws to become apparent. Or the team ignored the flaws because of other things they thought mattered more, like arm strength, which are usually vastly overrated.

So how does this year’s crop of quarterbacks look? Well, from looking at the various draft sites, I’ve come up with a list of 7 quarterbacks that might go in the first or second round. Not all of them will, but I’m trying to be comprehensive and I’ve included where most sites have them going.

Quarterback	College	Predicted Round	Games Started	Completion Percentage
Matt Stafford	Georgia	1^st	32	57.1%
Mark Sanchez	USC	1^st	16	64.2
Josh Freeman	Kansas St.	Late 1^st	31	59.1%
Nate Davis	Ball State	2^nd	37	60.3%
Pat White	West Virginia	2^nd/3^rd	42	64.8%
Graham Harrell	Texas Tech	2^nd/3^rd	41	69.8%
Rhett Bomar	Sam Houston St.	2^nd/3^rd	26	56.5%

So what does this tell us about this year’s quarterback class? Well, there isn't a quarterback that meet the two standards and will go in the 1^st or 2^nd round. Matt Stafford isn't close to the mark completion wise, but he hasn’t started as many games (and while 32 games is a solid amount, he platooned his first year playing). Mark Sanchez didn't start anywhere near enough games (though with USC quarterbacks, that isn't necessarily about a lack of talent) and Josh Freeman didn’t hit either mark (though his games started and completion percentage were close), which makes sense, considering he’s seen as a very raw quarterback. Nate Davis is like Matt Stafford--he started 32 games, but platooned a few more his freshman year. He was more accurate in college than Stafford was though. Pat White and Graham Harrell both hit each mark, but quarterbacks like them are why this projection system doesn’t work past the first two rounds—neither of them is seen as having the physical tools necessary to be successful in the NFL. And Rhett Bomar is an interesting case because he probably would have played 35 games for Oklahoma if he hadn’t been kicked off the team for taking money from boosters. He doesn’t seem to have the accuracy to be successful however, as he only completed 56.5% of his passes in college. Don’t be surprised to see him talked up as a big sleeper based on his arm strength and mobility, but it’s never, ever a good sign to see a quarterback completed so few of his passes in 1-AA.

So where does that leave the Vikings? Well, none of the quarterbacks made the benchmarks that predict success in the NFL. So, that makes this year's draft particularly unappetizing when it comes to quarterbacks. Which is great, because the Vikings probably need to draft one this year. Matt Stafford and Mark Sanchez aren’t likely to fall to the 22^nd pick. Josh Freeman might be there, but he’s a project and didn’t hit either of the marks that predict success in the NFL. Nate Davis is intriguing, however, and he might be available to the Purple in the 2^nd Round, allowing them to address another one of their issues in the first, but he's a little small for a quarterback and would have to adjust from the MAC to the NFL (then again, the MAC seems to turn out very good NFL quarterbacks). I’m going to get into this a lot more (look for a breakdown of the Vikings’ needs next) and hopefully take a more in depth look at the prospects the Vikings might take in the first round, but as of right now, it doesn’t look like they should be drafting a quarterback with the 22^nd pick.

Contemplating a Move

2009-02-04T10:34:00.003-05:00

Luft Krigare left a comment on Monday that has stuck with me since:

"To add to the negativity... LA could handle two teams sharing the Ed Roski dream of a stadium just like the Giants and Jets do (and maybe the 49'ers and Raiders in the future), so both the Chargers and Jaguars have got to relocate for the Vikings not to go to LA. But LA isn't the only landing spot, I could see London getting the team and suddenly they would be in a market bigger than New York."

So what if the Vikings' move is inevitable? What if, after 50 years in Minnesota, the Purple and Gold pack up their gear and follow the original Purple and Gold west to L.A. or follow the original Vikings to England? What do we do then?

I mean, I don't live in Minnesota anymore. I've been to two home games in the past four years, and I watch most of the games at a bar. Where the Vikings play their games really shouldn't matter too much to me. I could easily pull a Lietch and just continue following the team that I've been rooting for most of my life. That seems reasonable, right? Except, it just seems so wrong. For whatever sociological reason, people root for teams they have ties too. I'm from Minnesota-I root for the Twins, Vikings, Timberwolves and Gophers (most of the time-see my next sentence). I went to Georgetown, which means I root for the Hoyas, who, thankfully, finally won another game. My reasons are no different than most people's (you always have your bandwagon fans, or folks who have no geographic connection, but latched on and stayed on). So what happens when the Vikings sever my tie to them?

Now, I'll be honest-I'm a Vikings' fan first and a football fan second. I'm not going to just follow the NFL or pick a new team if I stop rooting for the Purple (mainly because I'm not going to forgive Mr. Goodell and his cronies if they move and I can't handle it). So what happens then? No more NFL?

I just don't know if I can give up watching the NFL. But I don't want to be like Leitch and just follow a team after it rips apart the basis for my relationship with it. It's almost like contemplating how you would handle a close friend or relative dying (hyperbole, I know, but still)--you just can't know ahead of time. Which means that 2011 and 2012 are going to be a boat load of fun.

That's probably enough negativity for one off season (unless the Vikings sign Favre--then all bets are off). Which means it's time to start thinking about how the Purple can improve for next year, something they need to do if they want to bring home a championship before things get ugly. Tomorrow we start with an overview of the Vikings' needs.

Killing Time: Mindsets and Carter's Future

2009-02-03T09:53:00.004-05:00

The first thing I thought of when NBC flashed the statistic that the Steelers had blown one eleven point lead in the past twenty years was that it meant they were going to lose. When I mentioned that, however, the Steelers fan looked more amused then "Oh-my-God-you're-right-I'm-going-to-vomit", which is the look that kind of comment would get from a Vikings fan in such an important game (as opposed to the resigned understanding "Yup" that would be the response from a Vikings fan during your average regular season game). Of course, when your team has blown only one lead of more than eleven points in two decades, a lack of fear is probably not all that unreasonable. And I think that difference in reaction, in and of itself, is more than enough to demonstrate the differences in the success of the two franchises.

Chris Carter is going to continue to get screwed by the Hall of Fame voters, according to Michael David Smith. That's awesome. The man had 171 catches over 20 yards in his career (which means he's a possession reciever, obviously), retired with the second most receiving yards, had the best hands in the game and caught touchdowns like they were going out of style. So it makes perfect sense to keep him out of the Hall for a decade or so of his eligibility . I mean, that's why it took Mickey Mantle 10 yecars to get in to baseball's Hall of Fame, right? He was only the second or third best center fielder ever, so he had to languish. Oh wait- he got in on the first ballot. You know you're doing something wrong when baseball's Hall of Fame, which has an electorate that has never elected a player unanimously, changed its mind on Jim Rice after 10 years and doesn't understand that Bert Blyleven is a Hall of Famer, looks reasonable and well thought out in comparison.

Thoughts from a Super Bowl Weekend

2009-02-02T10:10:00.004-05:00

I think it was fitting that the touchdown that beat the Cardinals came on a pass caught in the right corner of the end zone by a receiver falling out of bounds. I hope their radio guy started screaming "Noooooooooooo" the second he saw the ref's hands go up. (And I was rooting for the Cardinals too--ahhh bitterness, my old friend.)

There isn't a receiver in the league that could make the catch Larry Fitzgerald made for his first touchdown, nor is there a receiver on the Vikings that could have made the catch Santonio? Holmes made to win the game. Sidney Rice has the potential to be that kind of presence in the end zone, but he didn't make the step he was supposed to this year, due to injuries. He'll also have a lot of opportunities to catch passes that are poorly thrown if the Purple don't bring in a real quarterback (and no, Brett Favre is not an option, as Gonzo so clearly articulated at the Daily Norseman).

Every time Ben Roethlisburger dropped back, it seemed like he was going to get sacked. I can't count the number of times I'd shift forward in my seat, unconsciously anticipating the Cardinals getting to him, only to see him move to the on spot in the pocket he could go (or break out of the pocket). Roethlisburger isn't exactly fast, quick or any of those other words that imply speed either, which, usually isn't as big a deal for him because he uses his size and strength to get away. But last night it was all about his mobility and being able to sense where he had to move to avoid the rush. Its a tired cliche to say that a team couldn't have done what it did without a certain player, but I think its true of this year's Steelers, whose line was a sieve. Roethlisburger was the only quarterback that could have had the success he did with this team, because while some quarterbacks have that pocket mobility (like Peyton Manning) and others have the ability to throw on the run, no other quarterback I've seen had the strength, size accuracy while moving and pocket presence to handle the pressure the Steelers line allowed. Basically, what I'm saying is that I want a quarterback like that in Purple.

If those were the best officials the NFL has, this league is in trouble, because the officiating was about as bad as it could be shy of blatant physical errors (like an inadvertent whistle) or making up rules (like when Matt Hasselbeck got called for an illegal hit below the knee while trying to tackle the Steeler who had intercepted him in Super Bowl XL). I still can't believe Kurt Warner's fumble that ended the game wasn't, at the very least, reviewed (and I'm mad we were denied what could have been a ridiculous ending with Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Bolden and Troy Polamalu all going for a jump ball Hail Mary). Most of the penalties seemed to be touch penalties (although the holding penalties were usually spot on), including a 15 yard face mask on Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (one of these days, I'd like to see a player with the ball get called for a face mask) and a 15 yard roughing the passer penalty on the Cardinals in the third quarter that was the kind of penalty that leads to a pass rusher not tackling the quarterback because he's worried that the quarterback has already thrown the ball. Take away 30 yards of penalties on that drive, and who knows if the Steelers actually get in field goal range.

I'm happy Randall McDaniel got in, but if you're looking for a reason why few people care about football history in the way that people care about baseball history, its the fact that Chris Carter has now been passed over twice for the Hall of Fame. If the second best person to ever play a position was on the ballot in baseball, the controversy would be over why 5% of the electorate didn't vote for them, instead of why they got passed over twice while two players (who are likely Hall of Famers, but weren't as good) that played the same position got in instead. Chris Carter retired with the 3rd most receiving yards, the 2nd most receptions and the 2nd most touchdowns. He accomplished all of that with Rich Gannon, Jim McMahon, a 39 and 40 year old Warren Moon, Brad Johnson, Randall Cunningham, Jeff George and Daunte Culpepper as the Vikings' quarterbacks.

And, because I wouldn't be a Vikings fan if I didn't end a Super Bowl post with negativity, I think its become clear that Vikings fans should probably just accept the fact that the only way the Purple will still be in Minnesota after their lease with the Metrodome runs out is if the Chargers or Jaguars beat them to L.A. There's no way they're getting public funding for a new stadium any time soon (nor should they when the state is laying off thousands of workers to balance its budget), and since Zygi's not going to pay for it himself (and Roger Goodall is clearly against his teams paying for their own stadiums) that means that unless another team moves to L.A., the Vikings are going to. So they really need to find a good quarterback in the next year or two so they can actually having a shot at winning a Super Bowl before they move.

And one last bit of negativity--I'd be willing to bet that the Purple are the only team to have three former coordinators win Super Bowls without the head coach they worked under taking a team to the Super Bowl.

Killing Time: Tomlin v. Childress, the 3-4, Daunte Clones and Assistants

2009-01-21T12:38:00.006-05:00

Grant's Tomb compares the approach Mike Tomlin and Brad Childress took when starting as head coach. Guess which one he liked better? (Here's a hint--it's not the one who won Football Outsiders' Keep Chopping Wood award for Head Coaches.)

The Green Bay Packers are going to be running a 3-4 defense next year. This is both a good thing and a bad. It's a good thing because the Packers don't really have the personnel to run the defense, as Acme Packing Company explains. That will exacerbate the weakness of the defense, and de-emphasize the strengths (both of which the Acme post explains). Then again, if Tarvaris Jackson is going to be playing quarterback next year, seeing the 3-4 will cause problems, because it will require him to recognize where the blitz is coming from and adjust accordingly. I'm sorry, but I just don't think he'll be able to do that.

Draft Countdown's most recent mock draft has the Purple taking Josh Freeman, a junior quarterback out of Kansas St. At 6'6", 250lbs, Freeman's a Daunte clone, and I mean that in a good way. Would he be the best choice? Maybe, maybe not, but make sure you check back because I'm going to breaking down the draft again like I have the past two years.

Leslie Frazier isn't going anywhere, but Special Teams Coordinator Paul Ferraro might be. Come on Spags! Hire him! Ignore the performance of the Vikings' Special Teams. He's your best friend! You've got to offer him a job!

Killing Time: Quarterbacks, HOF and Statistics

2009-01-07T15:00:00.006-05:00

Randball has a list of all the possible quarterback acquisitions the Vikings could make, while Defensive Indifference has a defense of Tarvaris Jackson (Seriously). I actually think he makes some good points, and I'm not opposed to the Vikings opening training camp with Tarvaris Jackson as a possible starting quarterback, providing they also acquire a real veteran quarterback to challenge him (say, Matt Hasselbeck or Jeff Garcia, instead of Gus Frerotte or Kelly Holcombe). I actually think Hasselbeck might be the best option available to the Vikings, if he's available for a 2nd rounder, even though he had his worst season this year. I think a lot of that had to do with his injury and the injuries suffered by his offense.

Three former Vikings were named Hall of Fame finalists: Chris Carter, Randel McDaniel and John Randle. I have to say, I don't think any of them deserve to go into the Hall of Fame this year. I'm not sure Randle's career is quite at the level necessary for the Hall, and Carter and McDaniel deserved to go in last year (or, really, any year since they've become eligible.

Advanced NFL Stats on the difficulties of measuring and modeling football statistically. I'm not a big enough statistics guy to work on this stuff on my own, but I do understand it enough to use them (and understand whether they're worth using). I think they're important because the stats that are currently used are so obviously flawed (measuring defenses by yards per game, or quarterbacks by yards per completion, or yards per attempts without counting sacks as attempts, for example). Over the past season, more statistical sites have emerged, outside of Cold, Hard, Football Facts (which really isn't an advanced statistical site as much as an alternative statistical site) and Football Outsiders. I thinks that great, because it means there's more people providing me information on football and the Vikings, but it's also important that everyone understand how hard it is figure out the NFL statistically.

Pacifist Viking defends the Purple's defensive performance the last three years. And the man is right--the Vikings were a good defense in 2006, above average in 2007 and an elite unit in 2008, depending on how good they were at defending the pass. They were 15th in DVOA against the pass in 2006, 23rd in 2007 and 5th in 2008. The interesting thing is that the secondary may have been at it's best in 2006, because the Vikings pass rush was at its worst in 2006, when it was 31st in the NFL in adjusted sack rate. The pass rush has gotten better the past two years, going up to 28th in 2007 (but the secondary wasn't as good) and becoming elite this year, finishing 2nd in ASR.

A clear message has been sent about the Vikings' 2006 draft, by the Vikings themselves (as Grant's Tomb points out). They don't think they did that good of a job with their picks.

Finally, Adrian Peterson has been named a finalist for the 2008 FedEx Air & Ground NFL Players of the Year Award. The winner is determined by fan vote, and if Peterson wins, the Safe Kids Coalition in Minneapolis gets $25,000, so its definitely worth the 30 seconds it takes to vote.

The Failure of the Return Game

2009-01-07T00:10:00.005-05:00

One of the problems with Brad Childress’ plan to win with defense, field position, the running game and the occasional big play was he forgot one of the most important components of field position: special teams. And I’m not just talking about the punt coverage. The Vikings had one of the worst return games in the NFL, barely presenting any threat to break a big play on a punt or kick return. It was pretty clear which team had put some thought into improving their return game last off season on Sunday, with DeSean Jackson racking up 109 punt return yards, including a 62 and 30 yard return, to the Vikings 1 return yard.

The stats for the season are equally bleak. The Vikings had only three kick returns longer than 40 yards, with their longest return being a 49 yarder by Darius Reynaud against Chicago in the Metrodome (he also had one of the other returns longer than 40 yards the next week against Detroit). They were one of only six NFL teams without a return of 50 yards or more. Their punt return game was equally bad. They led the NFL in fair catches, with 23. That means, of the 57 times a Vikings’ player caught a punt, they called for a fair catch 40% of the time. If you’re looking for a reason why the Purple only had four punt returns of more than 20 yards, and only one of more than 40 (Bernard Berrian’s 82 yard return for a touchdown), that’s probably the most likely.

There were a myriad of reasons for the Vikings’ futility. The first was Aundrae Allison’s failure to repeat his 2007 performance as a kick returner. In the first two games, he averaged 17.3 yards on three returns, with his longest return being 22 yards. At that point, the Vikings tried Chester Taylor, but he wasn’t much better. They tried Charles Gordon, who, while explosive (he had a return of 42 yards), got hurt. Then they tried veteran returner Maurice Hicks, who also wasn’t much better, but since he had no other role and he was a veteran, he stuck as the primary returner, returning 29 kicks. And he was bad. He averaged 23.8 yards per return, with only 7 returns of more than 30 yards. Basically what I expected. Darius Reynaud looked like he might turn into a quality returner, but he got hurt, which lead to more Hicks and even more poor kick off returns.

The Vikings' basically had the same problem at punt returner. They tried Aundrae Allison, but he was about as bad returning punts as kickoffs. They tried Charles Gordon, who, prior to getting hurt, averaged 4.4 yards per return while calling for 11 fair catches on 26 punts. They tried Bobby Wade and Bernard Berrian, neither of whom they wanted returning punts, since they're the Vikings' top two receivers. The two of them at least averaged more than ten yards per return, but Wade called for a fair catch on 50% of his punts, and while Berrian returned a punt 82 yards for a touchdown, he called for a fair catch on 42% of the punts he received.

Field position matters, especially when you have an offense built on running and short passes, like the Vikings. And the Vikings inability to find anything but mediocre punt and kick returners means that they had to go even further on each drive, something their offense just isn't equipped to do. The Purple averaged 29 yards per drive this year (according to Football Outsiders), which means that the difference between a fair catch at their own 30 yard line and a ten yard punt return to the 40 yard line was the difference between a punt and a field goal. And if that happened just once, it'd be the difference between the Vikings' being 12th in points per game and 3rd. With the Purple's defense, three points is a lot. And starting out with good field position may have been the difference in the playoffs, something we'll never know, since the Purple's return men never provided them with that luxury.

[I'm going to be out of town until Tuesday, so don't expect too many posts until then. I'll try and get something up, but my plans for what I'm going to do when traveling and what actually happens rarely seems to match up]

Killing Time: Damning Quotes, New QBs and Offseason Moves

2009-01-06T10:51:00.006-05:00

Two things were clear to all who watched the Vikings' playoff game--Tarvaris Jackson is not the answer at quarterback next year and Brad Childress is not going to be out coaching any of the NFL's quality coaches. According to Michael Silver of Yahoo Sports, it was clear to the Vikings' players as well. Nothing I can write can be more damning about Tarvaris and Childress than the quotes from the Vikings' players, who described Tarvaris as having a “deer-in-headlights” look and complained that the Vikings' "sideline was in total disarray” and "one play behind all day". That being said, Gus Frerotte should probably look in the mirror and remember who he is before he starts whining about not playing. Somehow, I doubt a quarterback that was sacked 29 times (11th most in the NFL) and threw 15 interceptions (4th most in the NFL) despite only making 309 pass attempts (28th in the NFL) and playing in only 11 games would have been the answer against the Philly blitz.

Just because Frerotte wouldn't have saved the season (and honestly, anyone who says he would have because he was 8-3 this year should stop, think about what exactly that means about his play when compared to the above statistics and then take it back before they look too stupid) doesn't mean that something needs to be done to improve the position this off season. Grant's Tomb has a pessimistic view of the Vikings' chances of finding an upgrade, while Pro Football Talk provides some hope that the best quarterback at the Dome might be available. And in case you're wondering, I lay the blame for the Vikings' failure to find a competent quarterback at the feet of Brad Childress. Since he took over, he's had the opportunity to acquire Matt Schaub, Jeff Garcia and Chad Pennington [Edit: Not to mention AP Offensive Player of the Year Drew Brees] via free agency or Sage Rosenfels and Derek Anderson in a trade, as well as draft Brian Brohm, Brady Quinn, Chad Henne, Kellen Clemens and Brodie Croyle, as well as hold onto Tyler Thigpen. While all of those players might not have been any better than Tarvaris, there are quite a few quarterbacks in that list that would have given the Purple a much better chance at winning that playoff game and making a run to the Super Bowl.

Quarterback isn't the only position the Purple need to pursue upgrades at either. Sean Jenkins of the Pioneer Press has a good overview of what moves the Vikings might make. Personally, I'd like to see the Vikings upgrade their secondary (Cedric Griffin is an above average nickle back and a below average starter) and offensive line first, while hopefully bringing in some more talent at wide receiver. There are quite a few players available at those positions in free agency and the draft, so the Purple should be able to bring in upgrades (Nnamdi Asomugha!) to go along with the upgrade at linebacker that will occur when they replace Napolean Harris with E.J. Henderson for the second time.

5 Quick Thoughts on The End

2009-01-05T15:04:00.003-05:00

I'll have a lot more on the game in the next few days, but I wanted to get in a few quick thoughts (five, to be exact) on the Vikings' playoff loss and what it means for the team going into the off season.

There's nothing more frustrating than watching Eric Beinami quiz Adrian Peterson on protection schemes on the side line when the Vikings are facing 3rd and short (or really, any passing down). I don't know if Childress pulls Peterson because he doesn't know how to block, because Peterson doesn't want to block, because he doesn't trust him to catch the ball or because he's being stubborn and trying to prove something. Whatever the reason, it's frustrating watching the Purple's best weapon watch on 3rd down instead of being on the field. At the very least, Childress should keep him out there WITH Chester Taylor every once in a while. Line him up in the slot. Put Taylor and Peterson in the backfield with Tarvaris. Doesn't really matter--just make sure that defenses have to worry about him on 3rd down.

I know a lot of folks are clamoring for Leslie Frazier to replace Brad Childress. I'm not sure I'm on board with that. I'm definitely on board with Childress being replaced (though I doubt it will happen), as I think we just saw the Vikings' hit their ceiling under Childress, but settling on the in house choice isn't necessarily the right thing to do. I think Frazier's the easy choice because he has a lot of similarities to Mike Tomlin and Tony Dungy, but that doesn't make him the right choice to succeed Childress. It doesn't make him the wrong choice either--I'd just hope that if (when) Childress is fired, that Zygi does a very, very, very thorough search for a replacement. By all accounts, he failed to do that when he chose Childress, and look where that got us. So maybe Frazier's the right choice. Maybe he's not (Umm...Leslie? You might want to adjust your coverage so that the 10 yard hook over the middle isn't open every single play). I just want Zygi to consider all the options before he hires a new coach.

Speaking of coaching, you may have noticed that the Vikings played well in the first half (aside from the pick six) and poorly in the second half. Guess which team made the proper adjustments and which one didn't? (And what, exactly, was going on during the Vikings last drive of the half? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?)

The Vikings had a very productive off season last year. They seriously upgraded their talent level. First off, Jared Allen is a beast. A beast. Bernard Berrian is also a very good wide receiver, and was clearly the best on the team. And Madieu Williams was a very solid safety. He wasn't a huge play maker, but he also wasn't getting toasted every other play like his predecessor (I'm still not sure how, exactly, Dwight Smith fell for that double move by Devin Hester. Somethings might never be explained). If they can be as successful bringing in a new quarterback and some secondary and offensive line help this year, they're going to be very, very good next year.

Three quick, bitter thoughts: Hey Brian Dawkins--way to lead with your head. Classy. Donovan? Please don't dance. And DeSean Jackson? You don't get to talk trash to the opposing coach immediately after stepping out of bounds to avoid getting hit by the punter.

Two Reasons the Vikings Will Win

2008-12-31T16:38:00.002-05:00

There are obviously more than two reasons why the Purple can win the game on Sunday. But two of the biggest (and I hope that Brad Childress realizes this while game planning) are Visanthe Shaincoe and Chester Taylor. I think they might even be the two most important offensive players on the field on Sunday, because the Eagles have struggled against similar players all year.

Philadelphia's strong against the run (3rd in DVOA) and strong against the pass (3rd in DVOA). Where they're weak, however, is against tight ends (19th in DVOA) and against running backs in the passing game (18th in DVOA). And this is borne out by more than just the advanced statistics. In each of the Eagles' losses, either a running back or tight end was their opponents leading receiver (except for their loss to the Ravens, where they turned the ball over 5 times, although a running back was their second leading receiver).

And it makes sense when you consider the way the Eagles play as well. This is a blitzing defense. When you're sending linebackers and safeties after the quarterback, you're removing the players that would normally be covering the tight ends and running backs. Also, you're forcing the quarterback to make quick decisions, which usually means they're going to throw their pass to a safety valve, which is usually either the tight end or running back.

So what does it mean? It means that Visanthe Shaincoe's emergence (he's currently second among Tight Ends in DYAR and DVOA) could be the single most important thing for the Vikings this Sunday. And it could mean that we see a lot more of Chester Taylor on passing downs (or, you know, if Brad Childress wanted to get creative, he could play BOTH Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor on passing downs, though that's probably just crazy talk). And it means that, even though they're the best team in the NFL, according to DVOA, the Vikings have the weapons to exploit the Eagles defense.

Killing Time: What a Draw

2008-12-30T14:54:00.002-05:00

There's nothing like winning your division, getting the third seed and a game at home, only to find out your opponent is the best team in the NFL, according to DVOA.

Pacifist Viking on why the game might get blacked out. Let me just say that this is the first time I'm glad that I'm not in Minnesota for a Vikings' game.

I am in complete agreement with DC at Grant's Tomb on the fact that Childress is still not a good coach. One of the unmentioned subplots in this game is that neither fan base is all that excited about their team making the playoffs because they don't think they can win the Super Bowl with their coach and quarterback and it guarantees that they're going to have the same coach and quarterback next year. This becomes even less surprising when you consider that Zygi Wilf tried to model the Vikings on the Eagles.

Smarter Stats breaks down the Wild Card match ups.

The Vikings might have their best running back ever. They might have their best defensive line ever. And, apparently, they might have their best punter ever. (And you wonder why no one is all that impressed by a 10-6 record with this kind of talent).

Pat Williams is playing. So the Vikings have a chance at stopping Brian Westbrook on the ground. Phat Pat isn't going to be able to help the Purple stop Westbrook in the passing game though, which is too bad, because the Vikings aren't very good at stopping pass catching running backs (they're 22nd in DVOA against them).

Three Stars: NFC NORTH CHAMPIONS

2008-12-28T20:20:00.003-05:00

If one is being honest, then one would not be happy with the Vikings performance today. The defense didn't play well, and Derrick Ward ran all over the Purple. The last minute of the Vikings' game winning drive was about as poorly run and executed as could be. However, I'm not going to be that guy, on this, the day of the Vikings' first NFC North crown. Today is a happy day--the Vikings won a big game for the first time this decade and with it, their first division crown. So we're going to hand out the Three Stars of the Game and celebrate those who did the most to get the Purple their first crown.

Third Star: Adrian Peterson

It wasn't his best game, but he had the play of the first half, making one cut and going 67 yards for his longest run of the year and the Vikings' first touchdown. With that run, he pretty much sealed his first rushing title, guaranteed he'd finish the season with 3000 rushing yards for his career (only the fifth running back to reach that mark in his first two years) and more than made up for the fact that he averaged under two yards a carry, aside from that run, in the first half and had his ninth fumble.

Second Star: Ryan Longwell

I've said it before, and I'll say it again--when you make a game winning field goal, you get to be one of the Stars of the Game. Especially when it's a 50 yard field goal, the coach is being indecisive and it's to win a division title for the first time since 2000. And from the second he kicked it, there was no doubt that it was going in. And that's not even including the 48 yard field goal he made in the first half. And don't scoff at that field goal either--what would have happened if Jon Carney had made his final attempt, a 48 yard kick that would have forced the Purple to score a touchdown to win.

First Star: Bernard Berrian

No player had more to do with the Vikings' win today than Bernard Berrian. His 54 yard touchdown catch got the Vikings back into the game after they Giants went up 9 points and, while the Giant covering him fell down, Berrian turned what would have been a 30 yard catch into a touchdown by putting a move on another Giant and then outracing him to the end zone. He also had the most important catch of the final drive, hauling in a 9 yard reception on 3rd and 8. And it was a beauty of a catch--the throw was high, but he still managed to bring it in and get both feet in bounds in a catch that was reminiscent of Chris Carter's specialty. He played like a #1 receiver today and it was a glorious thing to watch.

Second Half Live Blog

2008-12-28T14:48:00.014-05:00

First Half Thoughts are here. Halftime Thoughts are here.

Third Quarter Thoughts

YES! DAVID CARR!! WHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

Eli Manning might be out, but Derrick Ward is not, and he promptly rips off a five yard run for a first down.

The Texans have pushed their lead to 21-10 with a Ryan Moats touchdown. Let's see here--David Carr is in, the Texans are starting to put away da Bears. There is no way this is going to end well. I am legitimately frightened about how things are going to turn out now.

I wasn't kidding when I said I was legitimately scared. 15 minutes later and da Bears have scored, cutting their defiecit to just four points and now the Giants are up 16-10. At least the Lions have tied the Packers at 14. The sad thing is I think that the Lions have the best chance to win of the three teams I'm rooting for today.

Now that is a play call! Giving Peterson the ball on an end around is the kind of imagination that the Vikings' offense is lacking all too often. And it might just serve to get him going today, something that needs to happen if the Vikings are going to come back and win this game (Or, you know, Tarvaris Jackson could fire a laser to Bobby Wade for a 41 yard gain to the 15 yard line on a route very similar to the route Wade ran for a touchdown against the Cardinals). And what do you know--after that play call, Peterson's looked very much like the Purple Jesus we all know and love.

Well that was awesome. Nothing like following up a stupid interception in the end zone with a 15 yard unnecessary roughness penalty. Ugh. At least the Texans just kicked a field goal to go up 24-17 with 12 minutes to go in Houston.

Fourth Quarter Thoughts

After two great plays by the defensive line and linebackers forced the Giants into 3rd and 21, Benny Sapp got torched by Sinorice Moss for 27 yards and the first down (and, eventually, a 19-10 lead). Anyone who doesn't think the Vikings need to upgrade their secondary next year is wrong. WRONG. Personally, I think the Vikings should look out west again and trade for Nnamdi Asomugha, who is in the exact same situation Jared Allen was last year. (Asomugha is also known as the reason why Andre Johnson only had 2 catches for 19 yards last week). I'd also like to know what Marcus McCauley has done to get buried behind the Viking most likely to make a horrible mental mistake.

BERNARD BERRIAN!!! Yeah, the defender fell down, but Berrian got open and, more importantly, Tarvaris Jackson found him and got him the ball. And with that catch, Berrian has a new career high for receiving yards (955 yards) and touchdowns (7) in a season. That play may have just saved the Vikings season.

Speaking of needing to improve the secondary, Cedric Griffin is currently taking a page out of the Fred Smoot book on how to give a wide receiver a 10 yard cushion. You're covering Mario Manningham, not Plaxico Burress. Please play accordingly.

Houston's up 31-14 with just under three and a half minutes to play. It's looking like the Purple are going to make the playoffs. Can they do it on their own terms? Tarvaris Jackson has 3:17, two time outs and about 45 yards to go to get into range for a game winning field goal.

Another nice play call by Childress. Play action bootleg that gives Tarvaris a chance to either tuck it and go or hit Shaincoe on a short pass. Of course, he then completely negated that play call by wasting 20 seconds for some unknown reason and forcing Ryan Longwell to attempt a 51 yard field goal. Or not. That was awesome.

THE VIKINGS WIN! THE VIKINGS WIN! AND THIS PLACE IS BEDLAM!!!! LADIES AND GENTLEMEN, YOUR NFC NORTH DIVISION CHAMPIONS, THE MINNESOTA VIKINGS!!!!

Halftime

2008-12-28T14:35:00.003-05:00

First Half Thoughts are here

So far so good. The Purple are up (if only by a point) at the half. Chicago's down 14-10 and the Lions are only down 14-7 in what, we can only hope, is the eventual setting for their first victory of the season.

There is a lot to be worried about though:

As I said earlier, the Vikings miss Pat Williams. The Giants have 60 rushing yards already and are averaging 4.6 yards per carry, almost a yard and a half more than the Vikings have been giving up all year. Derrick Ward is tearing up the Vikings, with 4.2 yards per carry, and he's consistently finding the cutback lane when he goes outside (right about where Pat Williams would be) and he's able to power through the middle as well.

If you take away his 67 yard run, Adrian Peterson has 10 yards on 9 carries. That's clearly not good enough. The blocking hasn't really been there, but Peterson should still be getting more than 1.1 yards a carry. It's also a huge reason why the Vikings aren't getting any yards on First Down, which is why they are having so much trouble moving the ball. So far, the Purple have had 1st and 10 eight times. After those eight plays, they've faced 2nd and 10 (or longer) six times, and 2nd and 7 the other two times. The Vikings can't sustain drives like that.

First Half Live Blog

2008-12-28T13:10:00.013-05:00

First Quarter Thoughts

If Maurice Hicks is able to return a kickoff 37 yards on you, it says something about your kickoff coverage. In this case, it says your kickoff coverage is the worst in the NFL.

Leslie Frazier is going to be a head coach soon. His blitz calls almost always seem to get pressure on the quarterback. And while Dick Stockton is giving the credit for Ben Leber's sack to the Vikings' secondary bumping the Giants receivers, there really wasn't that much jamming on the line. That sack was due to Jared Allen beating his man, forcing Eli to step up into Ben Leber's grasp.

So Brad Childress decided against showing the Chicago-Houston score. It's probably the right call, since knowing the score isn't going to help the Vikings' performance and it might just hurt it. Also, it's 7-0 Bears now, and I'm sure that's the kind of info that might take the air out of the Dome. Luckily the crowd isn't being told (limiting the group reactions).

And that, right there, is why Tarvaris Jackson is the right choice to play quarterback. Gus Frerotte doesn't get out of the pocket there, let alone get the corner and find Bobby Wade for the first down. And Tarvaris' decision to find Wade on 3rd and 3, rather than tuck and run, was the kind of decision he wasn't making prior to his benching.

Ummm....what exactly just happened in da Bears-Texans game? Steve Slaton's down, but then he fumbles? What? C'mon Fox! You can't just do a game break, show an inexplicably bad call, imply it's a bad call, and then not explain why the Texans didn't challenge it! And now it's 10-0 Chicago. What the heck is going on in Houston?

And now Fox is going out of its way to jinx the Vikings. Thanks for that discourse on why Adrian Peterson fumbles, right as he fumbles for the first time. And it's another example of why Peterson fumbles--it's because he never believes he's down--he was in the middle of a spin move as that ball came loose. Thankfully Jim Kleinsasser killed a Giant or two in the pile and recovered the ball.

Second Quarter Thoughts

Ryan Longwell's field goal puts the Vikings up 3-0. It's a start and it helps show that this Vikings team can play with anyone (and matches up well with the Giants). Really, the only success the Giants are having moving the ball right now is on the ground, where Derrick Ward has 18 yards on only 3 carries, mostly up the middle, otherwise known as the area usually occupied by Pat Williams. True, the Giants would have Brandon Jacobs, but he's no match for the immovable object that is Pat Williams.

First off, let me just say I like that play call. Rather than slam Peterson into the Giants two quality defensive tackles, Childress sent him off tackle, away from the majority of a defense that was stacked in the middle. And right as I was starting to worry that Peterson was going to have one of those frustrating 50 yard games that marked the end of last season, he makes the perfect cut, hits the whole at full speed and was gone. 67 yards later, the Vikings have a 10-0 lead.

I'm almost one hundred percent sure that the Vikings' coverage unit is going to cost them a game in the playoffs (or perhaps this one--Cedric Griffin's recovery after getting sucked into the middle of the field was the only thing that kept Ahmed Bradshaw out of the end zone). Nothing like feeling pure terror after the Vikings' score.

At least Giants' fans have to feel the same way. Nothing like watching Maurice Hicks rip off another long kick off return.

The Texans score! Three things--Andre Johnson is very, very good, da Bears' secondary really isn't and Dick Stockton is still living in the 1950s, telling us that the only way fans at the game could find out about the Texans' score is if they had a transistor radio. Or, you know, a cell phone, a Blackberry, an iPhone or any of a host of mobile communications devices.

For the first time all day, the Vikings stopped Derrick Ward. Of course, it came at the expense of Ray Edwards, who made a nice play, bouncing off Madison Hedgecock and into Ward for the stop. At least Edwards managed to leave the field on his own.

Don't look know, but the Texans are leading da Bears 14-10 going into the half. Andre Johnson is carving up Chicago's secondary, with 7 catches for 101 yards and 2 touchdowns. I'd also be willing to bet that I'm not the only Vikings fan/fantasy football player who can't decide if they should be mad at him for not doing this last week when they were in their fantasy championship or really happy that he's almost single handedly beating da Bears.

I liked Childress' decision to try and score there. You have to trust Tarvaris Jackson if you're going to win (and it gets him experience running a two minute drill). And he almost rewarded that trust (if not for a stupid penalty on Sidney Rice). What I didn't like was the play call on 4th and 1. No one believes that you trust Tarvaris Jackson enough to run a short pass play on 4th and 1. So the Giants knew it was going to be a draw. If you're going to run, run.

Killing Time: The One, True Purple Jesus

2008-12-27T20:16:00.007-05:00

The Purple Jesus

Adrian Peterson rushing yards this season alone would crack the top twenty for career rushing yards by a Viking. If he didn’t get a yard against the Giants, this would be the 38^th most rushing yards in an NFL season and if he gets 117 yards, he’ll crack the top twenty. And if he gets 1 43 yards, he’ll become the 15^th running back in the history of the NFL to rush for 1800 yards in a season. He’s currently 9^th among Vikings in career rushing yards and he has an outside chance of passing Michael Bennett for 8^th all time this season (he needs 177 yards to do so). He only needs two more yards to crack 3000 yards for his career and he’s rushed for more yards in his first two years than nine of the running backs in the top ten in rushing yards (only Eric Dickerson had more yards his first two years than Peterson). This is his second season. Think about that. If there’s a player that has earned the “Purple Jesus” nickname, it’s Adrian Peterson. What he has done just defies my ability to describe.

There are two things, however, that Vikings’ fans should be concerned about when it comes to AD. The first was demonstrated very clearly on Sunday—he’s fumble prone. As the Pro Football Reference blog points out, that’s likely a result of his ability to gain yards no other back can (and goes on to look at what an optimal turnover rate might be). Also, Peterson apparently took my advice and carried a football around all week like Omar Epps did in the Program.

The second issue that Vikings fans should be worried about is his work load. He only needs 28 carries to reach 370 for the year, and as Smarter Stats shows, that’s a work load that almost no running back can handle without breaking down (or having their performance fall off markedly). Peterson has carried the ball more than 28 times in four games this year (IND, GNB, CHI, @ ARI). Giving him the ball 29 times against the Colts and 30 times against the Packers makes sense to me. Both games were decided by a field goal. Giving him the ball 28 times against Chicago, including five times after the Vikings went up 31-14 with eight minutes left, does not. Nor does giving him 28 carries, including 13 in the second half, in the blowout of the Cardinals. And even if he doesn’t get to 370 carries this year, he’ll have still carried the ball a tremendous amount, and absorbed the punishment that comes with running the ball 360 times. It’s something Childress needs to keep in mind against the Giants and next year (if he's still around next year). There is no greater sin that Childress could commit that would be worse than ruining Adrian Peterson’s career by over working him.

T.J. and Tarvaris

Tarvaris Jackson’s one year old son, Tarvaris, Jr. (If you had an awesome first name like Tarvaris, you’d pass your name along too) has been battling health issues all season. This is the first I’ve heard of it, and it makes Tarvaris’s transformation from benched quarterback to clear starter (and there is no doubt in my mind that he should be starting this game over a healthy Gus Frerotte) all the more remarkable. Best wishes to his son, and hopefully he can bring home a division crown for him.

This game is going to be the first time that Tarvaris Jackson faces an elite pass rush (the Giants are 5^thin adjusted sack rate) since returning from the bench. If the Vikings are smart, they’ll try and get the ball to Chester Taylor in the passing game. The Giants’ pass defense has the worst DVOA in the NFL against running backs. The reason I say Taylor and not Peterson is because Taylor’s one of the best receiving running backs in the NFL and Peterson is one of the worst. Taylor’s 11^th in the NFL amongst backs in DYAR and 12^th in DVOA and he’s caught 81% of the 54 passes thrown his way. Peterson is 51^st in DYAR and 50^th in DVOA and he’s only caught 54% of the 39 passes thrown his way. (Adjusted Sack Rate, DYAR and DVOA courtesy of Football Outsiders)

1000 yards

Bernard Berrian needs 117 receiving yards to become the tenth Viking with 1000 receiving yards in a season and the first since Nate Burleson in 2004. It’s probably a long shot though—he’s only had that many receiving yards in a game twice in his career, although both games were this year (against Detroit and against Chicago). He only needs 69 yards to surpass his previous season high of 951 yards, which he set last year. That’s a lot more likely, as he’s had seven games this year where he had at least 69 yards, although all of them came with Frerotte at quarterback.

Purple Pass Catching Tight Ends

After gaining 136 receiving yards against the Falcons, Visanthe Shaincoe cracked the top ten all time for receiving yards by a Vikings’ tight end. The top ten is below (courtesy of Pro Football Reference). Two things stick out—the first is Joe Senser’s remarkable 1981 season. I’ll be honest—while I know of him because of his restaurant, I didn’t know he was that good of a player. It’s too bad that he suffered a career ending knee injury in 1982. Of course, his retirement led to the second most striking part of the list; the dominance and consistency of Senser’s replacement, Steve Jordan. When you have half the spots in the top ten (and 60% of the spots in the top 5) you’re clearly the best player to ever play the position in Purple. And in case you were wondering, the tight end who was 10th before Shaincoe's big game? Steve Jordan.

Joe Senser, 1981--1004 yards
Steve Jordan, 1986—859 yards
Steve Jordan, 1985—795 yards
Steve Jordan, 1988—756 yards
Jermaine Wiggins, 2004—705 yards
Byron Chamberlain, 2001—666 yards
Steve Jordan, 1991—638 yards
Steve Jordan, 1990—636 yards
Visanthe Shaincoe, 2008—582 yards
Jermain Wiggins, 2005—568 yards

The Giants Schedule

The Giants have a chance to set a record for Quality Wins (wins over teams with a winning record) in the regular season (and then in the playoffs) if things break their way on Sunday. Do not underestimate the Giants—this is a talented team that has played and beaten some very good teams. Even with some of their starters resting, they have the ability to beat the Vikings.

Go Lions

The only thing that could possibly make me feel better tomorrow if the Vikings lose and da Bears win is if the Packers lose to the Lions. That would be a black mark on their franchise that no other franchise could match—a loss to a 0-15 team, the worst team ever. Schadenfreude is a beautiful thing. It is a beautiful thing.

Playoff Scenarios

Joe Posnanski explains the various playoff scenarios. Yes, I could have found a better, more concise article on this subject to link to, but I’m going to take every opportunity I have to link to the best sports writer in America (and thus possibly spread the joy of reading him). Read him and thank me later.

Thanks For Nothing Green Bay

2008-12-23T10:19:00.003-05:00

Way to choke away a victory against da Bears. Next time, please put a little more effort into it. Maybe, instead of getting the game winning kick blocked by a lineman's face, you might try getting a little more loft on it and forcing them to jump in order to block it.

Just a thought.

(Also, I feel dirty for having cheered for the Packers. Seriously unclean. The kind of unclean that no amount of hot water and soap can handle.)

And in case you're wondering, the Vikings have no chance of making the playoffs, unless Andre Johnson and/or Steve Slaton go off against da Bears and lead the Texans to victory. Though I'm sure they'll make it seem like they're going, up until they fail to win and da Bears return a fumbled snap for a game winning touchdown or something equally ridiculous.

Does anyone out there actually believe the Purple will make the playoffs this year? Can you tell me why? Because I don't, and I could really use some cheering up.

Another Clincher, Another Let Down

2008-12-22T10:46:00.003-05:00

You know, I should be mad. I should be furious at the Vikings inability to hold onto the football. I should be seething that the Purple threw away yet another opportunity to win a game and threw their first chance at clinching the division and any chance at getting a first round bye along with it. But I'm not. I just can't get mad about an outcome I fully expected. And really, as the Star Tribune pointed out on Sunday, the Vikings haven't fulfilled their expectations since the second round game against the Cardinals in 1999 (Also, I'd like to thank the Star Tribune for dredging up that memory for me and in the process messing with the good juju that was surrounding the team. Now go die in fire).

There was a lot to like about this game. The Purple held Atlanta's backs to 3.37 yards per carry, despite the absence of Pat Williams (though you could tell they needed to adjust to life without him during the first drive of the game). Tarvaris Jackson outplayed Matt Ryan, up until he had to run a two minute drill. Brad Childress learned from the Tennessee game and went for it on fourth down in the fourth quarter. Visanthe Shiancoe had the best receiving game by a tight end since Steve Jordan (I'm going to assume that Steve Jordan had a 100 yard receiving game, since he has 6 spots in the top ten for single season receiving yards by a Vikings' tight end, and no one else had one before Pro-Football-Reference ran out of game logs). The Falcons didn't score a touchdown returning a punt (And, now I'm reaching).

But you know what? None of it matters because, at this point in the season, it's all about wins. Nice games by everyone who didn't fumble aren't enough. It is inexcusable for the Vikings to fumble the ball seven times. SEVEN TIMES. Every time I read an article about the game, and it mentions Tarvaris Jackson's three fumbles, my first reaction is "That's not fair--one was Adrian Peterson's fault". Think about that for a second. Yup. Even if you take away a fumble from Tarvaris, he still had TWO FUMBLES. And even with one of his fumbles being credited to Tarvaris, Peterson still had TWO FUMBLES. I'm not saying that Brad Childress should be fired if he doesn't make Tarvaris and Adrian carry around a football with a bounty on it like James Caan made Omar Epps in The Program but, he should be fired if he doesn't make Tarvaris and Adrian carry around a football with a bounty on it like James Caan made Omar Epps in The Program.

And the worst part about the loss? They're the Vikings, and they like to find new and inventive ways to torture their fans, so they've decided to force us to root for the Packers tonight. And I know, it hurts, but does anyone actually trust this team to beat the Giants on Sunday? Even if they aren't playing their starters? I know I don't. So....

GO PACKERS

Now excuse me while I try and convince an angel to show me what my life would be like if I had never heard of the Minnesota Vikings and the National Football League.

A Look at the Falcons

2008-12-19T15:40:00.002-05:00

As I said earlier, this Falcons team is not like the Cardinals. They’re a solid team, with wins over the Panthers, Bucs, Saints and Bears and one that dramatically improved their talent in almost every aspect of the game (except for one, which will become apparent and which bodes well for the Vikings) over the offseason. This is a team that could quite easily come into the Metrodome and beat the Vikings (though they’re only 2-5 on the road, they’ve won in Lambeau and at San Diego). And, like any Vikings fan, I have no faith in this team winning a big game (something I’ve only seen them do once), especially against an improved Falcons team that’s still in the playoff hunt.

Comparing their 2008 and 2007 rankings in Football Outsiders’ statistics, the Falcons improvement becomes obvious. They went from 24^th overall in offensive DVOA, and 22^nd and 29^th overall in passing and rushing DVOA, respectively, to 5^th overall, with highest overall passing DVOA and the 14^th best rushing DVOA. That’s what happens when you replace Joey Harrington with the best rookie QB since Dan Marino, you bring in Michael Turner to replace Warrick Dunn and upgrade your offensive line. Here’s where the Falcons’ top QB and RB ranked in 2007 and in 2008:

	2007 DYAR	2007 DVOA	2008 DYAR	2008 DVOA
Quarterback	25th	29th	5^th	1^st
Running Back	49^th	49^th	14^th	19th

Yup. That’s what we’d call an upgrade (especially at running back—Warrick Dunn was awful last year). Of course, if the Falcons hadn’t upgraded their line by drafting Sam Baker to play left tackle and finding starters Harvey Dahl and Tyson Clabo in the scrap heap, Ryan and Turner wouldn’t be as effective. Their three new starters have upgraded the line’s play as much as Ryan and Turner have upgraded the skill positions.

	2007	2008
Adj. Sack Rate	23^rd	5^th
Adj. Line Yards	32^nd	17th

Unlike on offense, however, the Falcons didn’t overhaul their defense. So while their defense has improved, it hasn’t done so anywhere near as much as the offense. In fact, the improvement can be traced to three things—they let DeAngelo Hall go, defensive tackle Jonathan Babineaux has been healthy all year (he only started 9 games last year) and John Abraham is having a career year. Consequently, their pass defense has improved from 26^th overall in 2007 to 17^th overall this year, but their run defense is pretty much the same as last year, moving from 28^th overall to 26^th. And since they only improved in one aspect, their overall improvement hasn’t been that great, going from 27^th overall in defense to 22^nd overall.

Their line play also reflects the improvement in their pass rush, but not in their run defense. This stems from the fact that Babineaux is an undersized tackle (he only weighs 284lbs) and Grady Jackson is too old and out of shape to be that effective at stopping the run.

	2007	2008
Adj. Sack Rate	21^st	11^th
Adj. Line Yards	28^th	21st

So who are the new and improved Falcons? They’re a team with a very dangerous offense and an average defense. Their passing game is as good as the Cardinals, only they can also run the ball with Michael Turner. Defensively, they can be run on (which bodes well, as I said earlier) and their pass defense is heavily reliant on Abraham getting to the quarterback. If Bryant McKinnie can keep him off of Tarvaris Jackson, their secondary isn’t strong enough to stop the Vikings passing game (which doesn’t mean the Vikings can’t stop their own passing game). They are, however, good enough to test Tarvaris in a way that the Lions and Cardinals aren’t, which means how he plays on Sunday should go a long way to determining the Vikings’ starting QB once Gus Frerotte is healthy.

If the Vikings play well, they should win. If they don’t, the Falcons can quite easily walk out of the Metrodome with the victory. As has been true the last few weeks, this is a must win game for the Purple—it’s a chance to clinch the NFC North, stay in the hunt for a first round bye and exorcise a few of the demons from the 1999 NFC Championship game.