Do You Believe in Miracles? I Don't.

Well, I was getting all geared up to write my preview for Sunday's pivotal contest against da Bears and then, as is my habit, I took a look at the Star Tribune's site. That's right--there's only a 25% chance that Pat Williams is going to play on Sunday. Don't everyone get excited at once.

I was really close to talking myself into picking the Vikings too. Rex Grossman throws interceptions like it's his job (except at home). Da Bears' defense is weak against the run (8th in the NFL) and teams like to pass against them (32.2 attempts/game for only 163.1 yards). And the cold weather should favor the Vikings and their more run oriented attack (da Bears average 116 yards/game on the ground to the Vikings 112). Due to my complete disregard of the facts, I was almost able to predict an ugly, Tice style, NFC North battle, culminating in a 13-10 Vikings win (the only thing holding me back was the knowledge that Brad Johnson was going to be wearing a glove on his throwing hand because of the cold).

But now that the best defensive player on the team is out, even I have to face facts. Let's see if you can follow this logic: If the Vikings win, then they shut down da Bears rushing attack. If the Vikings shut down da Bears rushing attack, then Pat Williams clogged up the middle, drew double teams and generally wreaked havoc in da Bears backfield. Pat Williams will not be playing on Sunday. Therefore, the Vikings will have problems stopping da Bears when they run the ball. Everyone follow?

Now, I'm not saying that the Vikings will let Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson run all over the field. But I am saying that for them to have any chance of stopping da Bears' offense, they need to continue to dominate their opponents running games, something they aren't going to be able to do without Pat Williams. The coverage continues to be mediocre at best, and the lack of anything resembling a pass rush means that Grossman is going to have time to pick apart that mediocre coverage. That, combined with even an average ground game, will lead to an above average offensive attack (something we all know the Vikings' can't match). Really, it could get ugly.

Unless, of course (trust me--you can't keep a good optimist down), da Bears change their game plan to reflect the cold weather and the loss of Pat Williams. If they decide to play it like Mike Tice did in 2003 and over commit to the run in order to get a true representation of games in the "Black and Blue Division", then the Vikings have a chance.

The problem with that theory is that, last time I checked, Lovie Smith wasn't a moron. Da Bears in a rout: 31-10. It's gonna be ugly on Sunday.

NFC Playoff Table Week 12: Back in the Race!

Good news everybody! Not only are the Vikings back in the playoff race--the Packers are out of it again! With their loss to Seattle, they fell to 4-7 for the year, and 3-5 in the NFC, meaning that there is no way in hell that they're going to make the playoffs. Whoo hoo!

Now, getting back to the Vikings and their playoff hopes: With their win over Arizona and the combination of the Giants, Panthers, Eagles, Falcons and 49ers losing, they are only one game out of the sixth wild card spot, and are currently ahead of every other 5-6 team in the NFC due to the tiebreakers, which ESPN.com has kindly laid out for us. And, as I've been saying all year, the Vikings have a schedule that sets up perfectly for the stretch run, if they are able to take advantage of it.

Unlike their competitors from the NFC East and the NFC South, the Vikings still have a game left against an AFC team, meaning that even if they finish 8-8, they will be guaranteed a winning record in the NFC, something only the Giants would have if they finished 8-8. They hold the tiebreaker over the Panthers, and get a chance at the Rams at home to end the season (possibly Childress' first chance to erase the trend of the Tice era--losing playoff clinching games).

Really, the only team the Vikings have to worry about, provided they take care of business, is the 49ers. The Niners hold the tiebreaker over the Vikings and have the exact same record. Their schedule is pretty brutal to end the season though, as they have to go to New Orleans and Seattle, and host Denver.

As you can see, if the Vikings go 9-7, they will make the playoffs. If they go 8-8, they'll need some help, but will still have a decent shot. Of course, losing to da Bears is probably not the best start to a 4-1 finish. Then again, Grossman has been turning the ball over a lot lately...

[As always, the playoff table is down aways]









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And here it is!

Team	Record			NFC Record	Tiebreakers		Tiebreaker Games Left	Division Games Left		Opponents Left
MIN	5-6			5-3	SEA, CAR		STL	@GB, @DET, @CHI		NYJ
NYG	6-5			5-2	ATL		@CAR, NO	DAL, PHI, WAS
PHI	5-6			4-3	GB, SF		CAR, ATL	@WAS, @NYG, @DAL
DAL	7-4			4-3	CAR		NO, @ATL	@NYG, PHI,		TB,
NO	7-4			5-1	PHI, NO, ATL		@DAL, @NYG	CAR		SF, WAS
ATL	5-6			3-4	NONE		DAL, @PHI	CAR, @TB		@WAS,
CAR	6-5			4-4	STL		@PHI, NYG	@ATL, @NO		PIT
SEA	7-4			6-3	NYG, STL			@AZ, SF		@DEN, SD, @TB
STL	5-6			4-4			@MIN	AZ		CHI, @OAK, WAS
SF		5-6	4-4			MIN	@NO, GB		@SEA, AZ	DEN

Quick Thoughts on Victory

Some quick thoughts on the Vikings win on Sunday (which I'll hopefully have more time to flesh out later this week).

• Chester Taylor was a great signing, and he is a great back. He runs hard, he has break away speed and he can both block and catch passes. I am a little worried about his wearing down, since he's on pace to set a franchise record for carries, and I think that may be why he's having a little trouble holding on to the ball in the fourth quarter. That being said, there's no way that was a fumble on Sunday. Bad call by the refs.
• Speaking of which, those refs were pretty bad. It wasn't just the bad call on the fumble. They were constantly huddling and threw a bunch of flags that they then took back. A lack of confidence in a call is a sign of a ref that isn't sure he knows what he's doing, as I found out when I had to officiate my first flag football game. Unsure refs in flag football is one thing, though, unsure refs in the NFL is another.
• Is it just me, or is Brad Johnson more willing to look down field (down field for him meaning six or more yards from the line of scrimmage) when Marcus Robinson is playing? I don't think it's a coincidence that the Vikings' offense looks more competent when Robinson is in there--Brad's more willing to take "risks" when he has confidence in who he's throwing the ball to.
  
• My friend, a former high school QB pointed this out to me--Brad Johnson looks like he's straight out of a movie when he's in the pocket. The man rarely gets set in the pocket, which is a huge reason why none of his throws have any zip on them.
• There isn't a whole lot to say about the Vikings' run defense, except that it is exceptional. And the ridiculous thing is that the Vikings are doing it without their first round pick, Chad Greenway. A lot of that is because of Napolean Harris, who is playing his position better this year than Randy Moss is playing his.
• Cedric Griffin is going to be a solid cornerback for a long time. He went one on one with both of the Cardinals' stud receivers on the final drive, and prevented them from catching either pass--one where he got his arm on the ball, forcing Fitzgerald to concentrate on catching the ball, rather than trying to land in bounds, which Fitzgerald failed to do, and the other where he knocked away a pass to Boldin.
• The Vikings had one sack on Sunday. Matt Leinart dropped back to pass 52 times. I think we've just found the problem with the Vikings' pass defense. The Vikings to do list for the offseason better include a defensive end that can actually get to the quarterback, otherwise they're going to be more Brady/Farve/Leinart style performances again next year.
  

The Return of the Wisconsin Women

I haven't had the privilage of assigning the women from Wisconsin to party with anyone in a long time. I mean, it's been over a month. Thankfully, some Vikings finally stepped up, and the women get to do what they do best--hang out with the Vikings. And who better to celebrate the start of a new winning streak with (yay optimism!) than the man who started this tradition way back in the preseason. That noble act, along with a game changing interception after the Vikings went up 21-13 and the game clinching interception, net Dwight Smith an all inclusive pass to party with the women from Hudson that he brought into the fold so many months ago.

It's Over Now--Time to Party!

NFC Playoff Table Week 11: The Door Is Still Ajar

Ok, I know. I know. The Vikings have no chance to make the playoffs. They've lost their last four games to fall to 4-6. They've been beaten by such world beaters as Green Bay, Miami, Buffalo and San Francisco. Their offense makes the Wing-T seem prolific. There's nothing the Vikings have done over the last four weeks that makes them look like a playoff team.

But here's the thing--despite they're best attempts to knock themselves out of the race, they're still in it. While the Vikings were busy allowing other teams to win with 9 points, return turnovers for touchdowns and making Brett Farve look like he's still good, their competitors were matching them suck for suck. St. Louis has lost 5 in a row. The Falcons have dropped three in a row, while the Saints have lost their last two. If the playoffs ended today, da Bears (9-1), Giants (6-4), Panthers(6-4) and Seahawks(6-4) would win their divisions and the Cowboys (6-4) and Saints (6-4) would sneak in as the wild cards. Which means the Vikings are only two games back, something that a 5-1 finish would likely take care of. Now, I know it's a pretty big stretch for the Vikings to go 5-1 when they still have to play at Chicago, St. Louis, New York (A) and at Green Bay. But it's not like any of the teams besides Chicago are locks for the playoffs.

I think they can do it.






Ok, fine. I'm being naive and stupidly optimistic. The odds of this team, lead by the dynamic duo of Johnson to Robinson, winning five of their last six to sweep into the playoffs, are miniscule. It's not going to happen, and the sooner we can all accept that, the better.

Since I'm going to be taking the rest of the week off for Thanksgiving (and because I need to push the table down so the formatting isn't messed up), it's time to decide whether Dennis Green, the Sheriff himself, is going to be the coach that puts the final nail in the Vikings' coffin (requiring me to find something new to write about on Wednesdays). The Cardinals are coming off a victory, have a hot shot rookie quarterback (Wouldn't it be nice if we had one of those?) and a pair of star recievers. Their line, while mediocre, has done a better job of protecting their quarterback than the Miami line that only gave up one sack to the Vikings. Thankfully, their defense is porous at best, ranking in the bottom third in the league against the pass and the run, and have given up the 7th most points (trust me--you don't want to know which team is last).

Rationally, I think this Vikings' team is done, and I think that the Cardinals will beat them if they continue to find ways to lose the game offensively. That being said, I have to believe for my own sanity that the Vikings are going to pull this one out, even if it takes two touchdowns from the special teams and defense. Which are all the touchdowns I think the Vikings get: Vikings 17, Cardinals 10.




[As usual, the playoff table follows]







[Just a bit more...]

























Here it is:

Team	Record			NFC Record	Tiebreakers		Tiebreaker Games Left	Division Games Left		Opponents Left
MIN	4-6			4-3	SEA, CAR		STL	@GB, @DET, @CHI		NYJ, ARZ
NYG	6-4			5-2	ATL		@CAR, NO	DAL, PHI, WAS		@TEN
PHI	5-5			4-3	GB, SF		CAR, ATL	@WAS, @NYG, @DAL		@IND,
DAL	6-4			3-3	CAR		NO, @ATL	@NYG, PHI,		TB, DET
NO	6-4			5-1	PHI, NO		@DAL, @NYG	@ATL, CAR		SF, WAS
ATL	5-5			3-3	NONE		DAL, @PHI	NO, CAR, @TB		@WAS,
CAR	6-4			4-3	STL		@PHI, NYG	@ATL, @NO		@WAS, PIT
SEA	6-4			5-3	NYG, STL		GB	@AZ, SF		@DEN, SD, @TB
STL	4-5			3-3	GB		@CAR, @MIN	SF, AZ		CHI, @OAK, WAS
GB		4-6	3-4			NONE	@SEA, @SF		DET, MN, @CHI	NYJ
SF		5-5	4-3			MIN	@NO, GB		@SEA, @STL, AZ	DEN

At Least Consider Changing the Course

I've been pretty easy on Childress so far this year. I've criticized specific decisions, but I've managed to stay away from attacking his broad coaching theories, such as his offense, or how he manages the team. One reason for that is because it's his first year. The other reason is because I want to believe that the Vikings have finally found a good coach. A coach that knows what he's doing and can lead the Purple to sustained success. You know, like Bud Grant did.

After reading the Star Tribune this morning, however, I'm a little more skeptical of Childress then I was before:

Childress said he will maintain course and will not "cast my gaze to next year, or the future, or any of that kind of stuff.

"You change for a reason," Childress said. "And the reason would have to be that I feel like it gives us a better chance to win."

Now, I'm as optimistic as they come (in fact, I'm going to outline why the Vikings are still squarely in the playoff hunt tomorrow), but that quote just reeks of someone who is stubborn, unwilling to admit mistakes, and unwilling to make drastic changes when needed, not to mention someone who isn't thinking long term (I'll leave the political analogies to someone else).

First off, Childress needs to realize that the Vikings are not going to accomplish a whole lot this year. They might make it into the playoffs. They might even win a game (on the backs of their defense, of course). But they aren't going to do much else, which means that Childress absolutely MUST think about next year and the year after. His two best defenders will be 35 (Pat Williams) and 30 (Antoine Winfield) next year. They aren't going to be around forever. There's a lot of young talent on the team as well, but the Vikings best players are their veterans, and they aren't getting any younger. So the Vikings need to figure out who they have for next year and what they need to address soon, so that they don't misjudge their talent in the offseason.

Secondly, Childress is wrong about what the acceptable reasons for change are. Winning is not the only reason. The other reason is to get players experience so they can step in next year, when they will be needed (guess who I'm talking about). Whether or not you believe Johnson under center gives the Vikings the best chance to win, forgetting that Johnson isn't going to be under center next year is a mistake, and one that could be costly (unless the Vikings are bringing Johnson back next year, at which point I'm giving up and finding a college football team to root for). Now, I'm not advocating that the Vikings make the changes now (though I think they should). What I'm advocating is that Brad Childress keep in mind that rebuilding the Vikings is a process, and one that can't be accomplished this year. Winning is nice and all, but I'd rather take a Super Bowl appearance next year or the year after then a win over the Cardinals on Sunday. I hope that Childress feels the same way.

Also, Childress should wear a suit. But that's neither here nor there

So How Do You Want to Do This?

What an awful Sunday. It began so innocently too, with a great seat at the bar in front of a big screen with the Vikings game on. And as frustrating as the Vikings' game was, it was nowhere near as bad as what went on at my Alma mater's home gym later that night.

I've discussed the events of later in the evening elsewhere, but I haven't had a chance to vent about the Vikings' performance. Before I get all philosophical, however, I'm going to bask in the awesome performance by the defense. I mean, -3 rushing yards? 10 points? Two turnovers, including an interception return to the 3 yard line? That's a dominating performance, and one that the defense can hang their hat on. This is a playoff caliber (and possibly a Super Bowl caliber) defense.

The offense, obviously, is another story. There really is nothing like turning the ball over 3 times, twice for touchdowns. Settling for a field goal after starting out on the three yard line was another nice touch. Though there were bright spots--36 minutes with the ball is a great stat. And the two drives that the Vikings blew with turnovers both looked like they were going to produce points. Not to mention that Brad Johnson wasn't horrible, which was nice. It was the kind of performance that would have been more then enough to win the game, considering how well the defense played, if they hadn't undermined the effort with by giving up touchdowns to Jason Taylor and Renaldo Hill.

So, along with the team, we as fans have come to a crossroads. The Vikings are still in the playoff hunt, and still are very much in control of their destiny, thanks to the overriding mediocrity that is the NFC (I'll have a more in depth analysis on Wednesday). Of course, they have to go 5-1 to finish the season to have a chance. So is it time to abandon all hope or to keep raging against the dying of the light? Is it time to view losses not as a blow to the Vikings' playoff chances, but rather as help with draft position? Why should Tarvaris be starting--to lead the Vikings to the playoffs, or because he needs experience so he can lead them next year? Should we start debating what positions should be prioritized in the off season, or should we be breaking down the must win game against the Cardinals? Optimism or Pessimism? What's the call?

A Picture is Worth 1000 Words

The words just weren't coming, and so, I'm going to use the magic of photography to tell the story of what will happen on Sunday. Those among you with weak constitutions might want to avert your eyes.

Brad getting sacked


Jason Taylor celebrating.


Brooks Bollinger "playing"


More Sacks by Miami


Antoine Winfield wasn't covering Chris Chambers

Miami 24, Vikings 10 (Goodbye Playoffs, Hello Lottery!)

NFC Playoff Table--Week 10

The NFC playoff picture got a lot more jumbled on Sunday. As you can see, there are two new additions to the table—Green Bay (*$#!) and San Francisco. Both of them, however, enter without many tiebreakers, with San Francisco’s victory over the Vikings (*$#!) being the only one, and difficult schedules. Green Bay still has to go to Chicago, face a newly healthy Seattle and play the two best teams in the AFC East. And San Francisco has one of the hardest schedules remaining, with five games against teams leading their division, and two more against playoff contenders.

The other two contenders in the NFC West, Seattle and St. Louis, don’t have nearly as tough a road as San Francisco. Seattle doesn’t face a single .500 NFC team the rest of the way, and their sweep of St. Louis pretty much guarantees them the division. St. Louis’s schedule is harder, but they have the opportunity to obtain tiebreakers over wild card competitors Carolina and Minnesota, although both games are on the road.

The teams in the NFC East and South, while all over .500, also all face at least four more teams from the NFC playoff race, mainly consisting of teams from the two divisions. The Giants, Eagles, Cowboys, Saints, Panthers and Falcons are going to play each other a lot over the final seven games, and they’re going to cannibalize each other, ruining overall and NFC records. I’d be surprised if, aside from the division winners, more then one team emerged from the fray with a record of 10-6 or better.

That means that 9-7 will likely be good enough to make the playoffs, so long as it’s the right 9-7. The key, more then anything, will be the conference record, which is why the 9-7 teams from the NFC South and NFC East are going to have problems getting in. They’re remaining schedules are heavy with NFC teams, and all of them sit at 5-4 or better overall, but only Philadelphia has a winning conference record. So if they finish at 9-7, their NFC record will likely take a hit from their three losses, putting them at a disadvantage for the tiebreaker.

Their disadvantage is the Vikings’ advantage. While the team has not been playing well of late (that is what I like to call an “understatement”), they still sit at 4-3 in the NFC. If they get to 9-7, they will have to go 5-2 to close the season, meaning that, at worst, their conference record would be a solid 7-5. And if one or both of those two losses are the “right” kind of loss (against the Jets or Dolphins), they’ll have a 9-3 or 8-4 conference record to go with tie breakers over Seattle and Carolina and possibly St. Louis. That should be enough for them to get in. Of course, in order for that to play out, they’ll have to play well enough to finish 5-2, which is a whole ‘nother story (Viva la Tarvaris Revolucion!)

[As always, the playoff table is done a bit due to formatting issues.]

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Here it is! As before, .500 teams are in bold and non contenders from the NFC are italicized. Da Bears are not in the table because they aren't contenders for the Wild Card.

Team	Record			NFC Record	Tiebreakers		Tiebreaker Games Left	Division Games Left		Opponents Left
MIN	4-5			4-3	SEA, CAR		STL	@GB, @DET, @CHI		NYJ, ARZ, MIA
NYG	6-3			5-2	ATL		@CAR, NO	DAL, PHI, WAS		@JAX, @TEN
PHI	5-4			4-3	GB, SF		CAR, ATL	@WAS, @NYG, @DAL		TEN, @IND,
DAL	5-4			3-3	CAR		NO, @ATL	@NYG, PHI,		IND, TB, DET
NO	6-3			5-1	PHI, NO		@DAL, @NYG, SF	@ATL, CAR		CIN, WAS
ATL	5-4			3-3	NONE		DAL, @PHI	NO, CAR, @TB		@BAL, @WAS,
CAR	5-4			3-3	NONE		STL, @PHI, NYG	@ATL, @NO		@WAS, PIT, BYE
SEA	6-3			5-2	NYG, STL		GB,	@SF, @AZ, SF		@DEN, SD, @TB
STL	4-5			3-3	GB		@CAR, @MIN	SF, AZ		CHI, @OAK, WAS
GB		4-5	3-4			NONE	@SEA, @SF		DET, MN, @CHI	NE, NYJ
SF		4-5	3-3			MN	@NO, GB		SEA, @SEA, @STL, AZ	DEN