NFL Playoff Table--Some Scenarios

After the Vikings win last night, there are only five teams still alive for the two wild card berths, the Giants, Vikings, Saints, Redskins and Panthers. So here are the four main scenarios:

• The Vikings finish 2-0. In this scenario, the Vikings would make the playoffs. If the Giants finish 2-0, the Vikings would be the six seed. If the Giants finish 1-1, the Vikings would be the fifth seed.
  

• The Vikings finish 1-1 by beating the Redskins and losing to the Broncos. In this scenario, the Vikings would need the Saints to lose at least one of their remaining games, or for the Giants to lose both of their remaining games in order to make the playoffs. (A win on Sunday coupled with a Saints loss would clinch a playoff berth for the Purple).
  

• The Vikings finish 1-1 by losing to the Broncos and losing to the Redskins. In this scenario, the Vikings would need two of the following to happen in order to make the playoffs: the Saints lose at least one of their remaining games, the Giants lose both of their remaining games and the Redskins lose their final game against Dallas.

• The Vikings finish 0-2. In this scenario, the Vikings would miss the playoffs, as the Giants would finish ahead of them, the Redskins would be guaranteed to have at least an 8-8 record with the head to head tiebreaker over the Vikings and they would lose tiebreakers to an 8-8 Saints team (NFC Record) or an 8-8 Panthers team, so they couldn't sneak in via a three way tie.
  

Team	W-L	NFC Record	Division Record	Tie Breakers	NFC Games Left	AFC Games Left
NYG	9-5	7-5	3-3	None	None	@ BUF, NE
MIN	8-6	6-5	3-3	NYG	WAS	DEN
NO	7-7	6-4	3-3	None	PHI, @CHI	None
WAS	7-7	5-5	2-3	None	@MIN, DAL	None
CAR	6-8	7-4	2-3	None	DAL, @TB	None

NFC Playoff Table--Pregame edition

[I thought I'd post a quick playoff table prior to the Game Preview post, which I'll have up later today]

I guess the Vikings' luck couldn't last forever. With the Redskins and Saints victories, the Vikings still cannot afford to lose a game if they want to make the playoffs. The good news is that the Vikings still control their own destiny, but a loss to the Redskins next week or a loss to the Bears tonight would put their hands in the Redskins and Saints opponents.

There was some good news, however. The Lions' loss pretty much eliminated them, meaning that their is one less team holding a tiebreaker over the Purple in contention. The Giants' loss also means that the Vikings still have a shot at the #5 seed.

Team	W-L	NFC Record	Division Record	Tie Breakers	NFC Games Left	AFC Games Left
NYG	9-5	7-5	2-3	DET, CHI	None	@ BUF, NE
MIN	7-6	5-5	2-3	NYG	CHI, WAS	DEN
NO	7-7	6-4	3-3	ARZ	PHI, @CHI	None
WAS	7-7	5-5	1-3	DET, ARZ	@MIN, DAL	None
CAR	6-8	7-4	2-3	ARZ	DAL, @TB	None
DET	6-8	4-7	3-2	CHI	@GB	KC

Playoffs! Playoffs!! (A Look at the Scenarios)

Once again, the Vikings got every break they could ask for over the weekend. Aside from taking care of the Niners, both the Cardinals and Lions lost, and three of the four 5-7 teams that played suffered their eighth loss, the maximum number that could. If the season ended right now, well, the Vikings would be traveling to Seattle to play the Seahawks in the first round. Here's the playoff table, and I'll break down the playoff scenarios after it. I'll post my thoughts on the game, along with the Three Stars this afternoon.

Team	W-L	NFC Record	Division Record	Tie Breakers	NFC Games Left	AFC Games Left
NYG	9-4	7-4	3-2	DET, CHI, PHI	WAS	@ BUF, NE
MIN	7-6	5-5	2-3	NYG	CHI, WAS	@ DEN
DET	6-7	4-7	3-2	CHI	@GB	@ SD, KC
ARZ	6-7	3-6	2-3	DET	@NO, ATL, STL	None
WAS	6-7	4-5	1-3	DET, ARZ, CHI	@NYG, @MIN, DAL	None
NO	5-7	4-4	2-3	None	@ ATL, ARZ, PHI, @CHI	None
CAR	5-8	5-4	2-3	ARZ	SEA, DAL, @TB	None
CHI	5-8	2-7	1-3	PHI	@MIN, GB, NO	None
PHI	5-8	3-7	1-3	DET, MIN	@DAL, @ NO	BUF

Assuming New Orleans' wins tonight (not a big assumption), the Vikings would have a one game lead over the Lions, Cardinals and Saints and a two game lead over the Panthers, Giants and Eagles. There are a few different ways the Vikings can finish:

• The Vikings go 3-0. If the Purple can do that, they're going to the playoffs as the 6 seed, unless the Giants finish 1-2 or 0-3, at which point they'd be the 5 seed.
  

• The Vikings go 2-1 by beating Washington and Chicago, leaving them at 9-7 with a 7-5 conference record and 3-3 divisional record. If this happens, they would need Detroit and New Orleans to lose at least once, since a 9-7 Lions team would win the divisional record tiebreaker with a 4-2 record, and a 9-7 Saints team would win the conference record tiebreaker with an 8-4 NFC record.

• The Vikings go 2-1, dropping a game to either the Redskins or Bears, leaving them at 9-7 with a 6-6 NFC record and 2-4 divisional record. If this happens, they would need Detroit and New Orleans to lose at least once, since a 9-7 Lions team would win the divisional record tiebreaker with a 4-2 record, and a 9-7 Saints team would win the conference record tiebreaker with an 8-4 NFC record. Also, if the loss came to the Redskins, they would need them to lose to either the Giants next week, or to Dallas in Week 17.

• The Vikings go 1-2, with only a victory over the Redskins or Bears, leaving them at 8-8 with a 6-6 NFC record and 2-4 divisional record. If this happens, they would likely need Detroit and New Orleans to lose twice, since an 8-8 Lions team would win the divisional record tiebreaker with a 4-2 record (unless one of those losses was to the Packers in Week 17, at which point the tiebreaker would go to record against common opponents, which has even more possible scenarios) and an 8-8 Saints team would win the conference record tiebreaker with an 7-5 NFC record. They would also need the Panthers and Cardinals to lose another game. Finally, if one of their losses came to the Redskins, they would need them to lose to both the Giants next week and to Dallas in Week 17. If the loss came against the Bears, they would need them to lose to either Green Bay or New Orleans.

• The Vikings go 1-2, with only a victory over the Broncos, leaving them at 8-8 with a 5-7 NFC record and a 2-4 divisional record. If this happens, they would likely need Detroit and New Orleans to lose twice, since an 8-8 Lions team would win the divisional record tiebreaker with a 4-2 record (unless one of those losses was to the Packers in Week 17, at which point the tiebreaker would go to record against common opponents, which has even more possible scenarios) and an 8-8 Saints team would win the conference record tiebreaker with an 7-5 NFC record. They would also need the Panthers, Bears and Cardinals to lose another game. Finally, they would need the Redskins to lose to both the Giants next week and to Dallas in Week 17.
  

• The Vikings go 0-3, leaving them at 7-9 with a 5-7 NFC record and a 2-4 divisional record. If this happens, the Vikings still have an outside shot at the playoffs, but would need so many breaks (I think the only way they could make it involves a three way tie between the Redskins, Vikings and the Cardinals at 7-9, but that might not even be right) that the odds are they wouldn't make it. Let's not think about this one though.
  

The Playoff Picture-Battle for the Final Wild Card

[Thoughts on the Vikings game and the Three Stars will be up later today-I wanted to give yall a picture of the playoff race first]

The Vikings had yet another good weekend, both on the field and on other fields throughout the NFL and are now in a three way tie with Arizona and Detroit for the final wild card spot. If the season ended today, the Vikings would lose the tiebreaker to Detroit based on Division Record (any time two teams are tied from the same division and split the head to head, the next tiebreaker is Division Record, then it's Conference Record). The Lions, however, would miss out on the playoffs due to their loss to the Cardinals on November 11th. With four games left, however, the Vikings' likely control their own destiny--go 4-0 or 3-1 and there's almost no way they don't get in.

The following table has the break down for every team still in the wild card race (I'm conceding the divisions to Seattle, Dallas, Green Bay and Tampa Bay). Expect to see teams start to drop out after this week. Special thanks go out to Joe Gibbs (for that second timeout), Lofa Tatupu of the Seahawks (3 picks against the Eagles, including the game clincher at the goal line) and Ernest Graham (converted a 4th and 2 against the Saints to keep alive Tampa's game winning drive). And the refs from the Cleveland-Arizona game can burn (21 penalties and overturned Kellen Winslow's game winning touchdown for the Browns)

Team	W-L	NFC Record	Division Record	Tie Breakers	NFC Games Left	AFC Games Left
NYG	8-4	6-4	2-2	DET, CHI	@ PHI, WAS	@ BUF, NE
ARZ	6-6	3-5	2-2	DET	@ SEA, @NO, ATL, STL	None
DET	6-6	4-6	3-2	CHI	DAL, @GB	@ SD, KC
MIN	6-6	4-5	2-3	NYG	@ SF, CHI, WAS	@ DEN
CAR	5-7	5-4	2-3	ARZ	SEA, DAL, @TB	@ JAC
WAS	5-7	3-5	1-3	DET, ARZ	CHI, @NYG, @MIN, DAL	None
CHI	5-7	2-6	1-3	PHI	@ WAS, @MIN, GB, NO	None
NO	5-7	4-4	2-3	None	@ ATL, ARZ, PHI, @CHI	None
PHI	5-7	3-6	1-3	DET, MIN	NYG, @DAL, @ NO	BUF

NFC Playoff Picture--There's Still Hope

After the big win against the Giants, the Vikings have played their way back into the playoff picture. I know, I wrote them off after the Green Bay game as well. And it's not going to be easy, but, more likely than not, the Vikings control their own destiny. I've left the division leaders (DAL, GB, TB, SEA) out of the following table since they are all up by at least two games and have included every team within a game of the final wild card spot (and there are a lot). If two teams are tied in the same division, the first tie breaker is head to head and then division record. Any two way ties of non division teams would be broken by head to head and then by the teams conference record. Ties between three or more teams would be broken by head to head (W-L against other teams), then conference record. If none of those work, well, we'll worry about it if it happens. The tiebreakers are all laid out here if you're interested.

Team	W-L	NFC Record	Division Record	Tie Breakers	NFC Games Left	AFC Games Left
MIN	5-6	3-5	1-3	NYG	DET, CHI, WAS, @SF	DEN
NYG	7-4	5-4	2-2	DET	@ CHI, @ PHI, WAS	@ BUF, NE
DET	6-5	4-5	3-1	CHI	@MIN, DAL, @GB	@ SD, KC
NO	5-6	4-3	2-2	None	TB, @ ATL, ARZ, PHI, @CHI	None
PHI	5-6	3-5	1-3	DET, MIN	SEA, NYG, @DAL, @ NO	BUF
WAS	5-6	3-5	1-3	DET, ARZ	CHI, @NYG, @MIN, DAL	BUF
ARZ	5-6	3-5	2-2	DET	@ SEA, @NO, ATL, STL	CLE
CHI	5-6	2-5	1-3	PHI	NYG, @ WAS, @MIN, GB, NO	None

With games remaining against Detroit, Chicago and Washington, and with the tiebreaker over the Giants, the Vikings could conceivably play themselves into the playoffs. If they are able to win only those three games, that would put them at 8-8, with 6-6 NFC record and 3-3 division record and tiebreakers over the Giants, Washington and Chicago. Only Philadelphia would hold a head to head tiebreaker over them. If they managed to pull out another game, their 9-7 record would almost assure them a spot, especially if their ninth win came against San Francisco. All of their remaining games are winnable, but they have to at least win their three games against the other contenders, starting next week against the Lions.

NFC Playoff Table Week 15--They Can and Will Make It

Aside from a Vikings’ loss, the games from last week pretty much went the Vikings’ way, leaving the Vikings’ path to the playoffs crystal clear. Thankfully, that loss came to an AFC team, keeping the Vikings’ in the hunt. In order to make it to the second season, the Purple must win out. A loss to Green Bay or St. Louis would eliminate them, since it would guarantee that the Packers or Rams would finish with at least the same record and hold the tiebreaker. Two Vikings wins, however, will not be enough. Both the Falcons and Giants must also lose at least one more game. If they do, and the Vikings win out, the Vikings would have the tiebreaker over both of them, due to a superior conference record. That’s not all, however. For the Vikings to sneak in to the playoffs at 8-8, one of two things must happen in the NFC West. Either San Francisco loses one of their last two games, OR they win out and Seattle drops their last two games, giving the 49ers the division title.

So is it going to happen? Well, it helps that the Tarvaris Revolution has begun (more on that in a special bonus post later this afternoon). The Falcons and Giants both have very losable games left (Atlanta going to Philly and hosting Carolina and the Giants hosting New Orleans and Washington), and they only each need to drop one. San Francisco also has to host Denver and the (hopefully) always pesky Cardinals. It can happen. The Vikings can make the playoffs if they win out. Now all they need to do is take care of business.

Team	Record			NFC Record	Tiebreakers		Tiebreaker Games Left		Other Opponents Left
MIN	6-8			6-4	SEA, CAR		STL		@GB
NYG	7-7			6-4	ATL, CAR		NO		WAS
PHI	8-6			7-3	GB, SF, CAR		ATL, @DAL		NONE
DAL	9-5			6-4	CAR, ATL		PHI,		DET
NO	9-5			8-2	PHI, SF, ATL, DAL		@NYG		CAR
ATL	7-7			5-5	NONE		@PHI		CAR,
CAR	6-8			4-6	STL		@ATL, @NO
SEA	8-6			6-5	NYG, STL		NONE		SD, @TB
STL	6-8			4-6	NONE		@MIN		WAS
SF		6-8	5-6			MIN, SEA	AZ	DEN

[To make up for my absence, I'll be posting again this afternoon--make sure you stop back to for a post on the beginning of the Tarvaris Revolution, the rise of Artrose Pinner, Pat Williams Pro Bowl snub and more, followed by a game preview on Thursday morning]