Why is Chris Carter Not in the HOF Again?

From Peter King's MMQB Tuesday edition:

If Cris Carter can't get in with 1,104 catches (and he's fallen short in his first years of eligibility), how will a man with 603 fewer receptions get in?

But I could easily make the argument that Branch, with three Super Bowl victories, was every bit the impact player (and maybe more so) as Lynn Swann, who was on four Steeler Super Bowl winners. Now I never voted for Swann, but he's in, and he has some eloquent and strong backers.

Swann averaged 2.9 catches and 47.5 receiving yards per game; Branch 2.7 and the identical 47.5. Swann: three Pro Bowls, one All-Pro team made. Branch: four Pro Bowls, three All-Pro teams. Branch averaged a gaudy 17.3 yards per catch, a yard more than Swann, and had 67 touchdowns to Swann's 51. The difference came in Super Bowl impact, with Swann and Branch both catch three touchdown passes in title games but Swann notching 161- and 124-yard games as a crucial element to the Steelers' success.

Chris Carter averaged 4.71 catches and 59.4 yards per game (putting aside how stupid those particular stats might be), averaged 12.3 yards per catch, caught 130 touchdowns, made 8 Pro Bowls and one All-Pro team. Carter made as many Pro Bowls as years Swann played in the NFL.

Honestly, I really don't get the NFL Hall of Fame.

Killing Time: Mindsets and Carter's Future

• The first thing I thought of when NBC flashed the statistic that the Steelers had blown one eleven point lead in the past twenty years was that it meant they were going to lose. When I mentioned that, however, the Steelers fan looked more amused then "Oh-my-God-you're-right-I'm-going-to-vomit", which is the look that kind of comment would get from a Vikings fan in such an important game (as opposed to the resigned understanding "Yup" that would be the response from a Vikings fan during your average regular season game). Of course, when your team has blown only one lead of more than eleven points in two decades, a lack of fear is probably not all that unreasonable. And I think that difference in reaction, in and of itself, is more than enough to demonstrate the differences in the success of the two franchises.

• Chris Carter is going to continue to get screwed by the Hall of Fame voters, according to Michael David Smith. That's awesome. The man had 171 catches over 20 yards in his career (which means he's a possession reciever, obviously), retired with the second most receiving yards, had the best hands in the game and caught touchdowns like they were going out of style. So it makes perfect sense to keep him out of the Hall for a decade or so of his eligibility . I mean, that's why it took Mickey Mantle 10 yecars to get in to baseball's Hall of Fame, right? He was only the second or third best center fielder ever, so he had to languish. Oh wait- he got in on the first ballot. You know you're doing something wrong when baseball's Hall of Fame, which has an electorate that has never elected a player unanimously, changed its mind on Jim Rice after 10 years and doesn't understand that Bert Blyleven is a Hall of Famer, looks reasonable and well thought out in comparison.

Thoughts from a Super Bowl Weekend

• I think it was fitting that the touchdown that beat the Cardinals came on a pass caught in the right corner of the end zone by a receiver falling out of bounds. I hope their radio guy started screaming "Noooooooooooo" the second he saw the ref's hands go up. (And I was rooting for the Cardinals too--ahhh bitterness, my old friend.)

• There isn't a receiver in the league that could make the catch Larry Fitzgerald made for his first touchdown, nor is there a receiver on the Vikings that could have made the catch Santonio? Holmes made to win the game. Sidney Rice has the potential to be that kind of presence in the end zone, but he didn't make the step he was supposed to this year, due to injuries. He'll also have a lot of opportunities to catch passes that are poorly thrown if the Purple don't bring in a real quarterback (and no, Brett Favre is not an option, as Gonzo so clearly articulated at the Daily Norseman).

• Every time Ben Roethlisburger dropped back, it seemed like he was going to get sacked. I can't count the number of times I'd shift forward in my seat, unconsciously anticipating the Cardinals getting to him, only to see him move to the on spot in the pocket he could go (or break out of the pocket). Roethlisburger isn't exactly fast, quick or any of those other words that imply speed either, which, usually isn't as big a deal for him because he uses his size and strength to get away. But last night it was all about his mobility and being able to sense where he had to move to avoid the rush. Its a tired cliche to say that a team couldn't have done what it did without a certain player, but I think its true of this year's Steelers, whose line was a sieve. Roethlisburger was the only quarterback that could have had the success he did with this team, because while some quarterbacks have that pocket mobility (like Peyton Manning) and others have the ability to throw on the run, no other quarterback I've seen had the strength, size accuracy while moving and pocket presence to handle the pressure the Steelers line allowed. Basically, what I'm saying is that I want a quarterback like that in Purple.

• If those were the best officials the NFL has, this league is in trouble, because the officiating was about as bad as it could be shy of blatant physical errors (like an inadvertent whistle) or making up rules (like when Matt Hasselbeck got called for an illegal hit below the knee while trying to tackle the Steeler who had intercepted him in Super Bowl XL). I still can't believe Kurt Warner's fumble that ended the game wasn't, at the very least, reviewed (and I'm mad we were denied what could have been a ridiculous ending with Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Bolden and Troy Polamalu all going for a jump ball Hail Mary). Most of the penalties seemed to be touch penalties (although the holding penalties were usually spot on), including a 15 yard face mask on Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (one of these days, I'd like to see a player with the ball get called for a face mask) and a 15 yard roughing the passer penalty on the Cardinals in the third quarter that was the kind of penalty that leads to a pass rusher not tackling the quarterback because he's worried that the quarterback has already thrown the ball. Take away 30 yards of penalties on that drive, and who knows if the Steelers actually get in field goal range.

• I'm happy Randall McDaniel got in, but if you're looking for a reason why few people care about football history in the way that people care about baseball history, its the fact that Chris Carter has now been passed over twice for the Hall of Fame. If the second best person to ever play a position was on the ballot in baseball, the controversy would be over why 5% of the electorate didn't vote for them, instead of why they got passed over twice while two players (who are likely Hall of Famers, but weren't as good) that played the same position got in instead. Chris Carter retired with the 3rd most receiving yards, the 2nd most receptions and the 2nd most touchdowns. He accomplished all of that with Rich Gannon, Jim McMahon, a 39 and 40 year old Warren Moon, Brad Johnson, Randall Cunningham, Jeff George and Daunte Culpepper as the Vikings' quarterbacks.

• And, because I wouldn't be a Vikings fan if I didn't end a Super Bowl post with negativity, I think its become clear that Vikings fans should probably just accept the fact that the only way the Purple will still be in Minnesota after their lease with the Metrodome runs out is if the Chargers or Jaguars beat them to L.A. There's no way they're getting public funding for a new stadium any time soon (nor should they when the state is laying off thousands of workers to balance its budget), and since Zygi's not going to pay for it himself (and Roger Goodall is clearly against his teams paying for their own stadiums) that means that unless another team moves to L.A., the Vikings are going to. So they really need to find a good quarterback in the next year or two so they can actually having a shot at winning a Super Bowl before they move.
  

• And one last bit of negativity--I'd be willing to bet that the Purple are the only team to have three former coordinators win Super Bowls without the head coach they worked under taking a team to the Super Bowl.
  

Killing Time: Quarterbacks, HOF and Statistics

• Randball has a list of all the possible quarterback acquisitions the Vikings could make, while Defensive Indifference has a defense of Tarvaris Jackson (Seriously). I actually think he makes some good points, and I'm not opposed to the Vikings opening training camp with Tarvaris Jackson as a possible starting quarterback, providing they also acquire a real veteran quarterback to challenge him (say, Matt Hasselbeck or Jeff Garcia, instead of Gus Frerotte or Kelly Holcombe). I actually think Hasselbeck might be the best option available to the Vikings, if he's available for a 2nd rounder, even though he had his worst season this year. I think a lot of that had to do with his injury and the injuries suffered by his offense.

• Three former Vikings were named Hall of Fame finalists: Chris Carter, Randel McDaniel and John Randle. I have to say, I don't think any of them deserve to go into the Hall of Fame this year. I'm not sure Randle's career is quite at the level necessary for the Hall, and Carter and McDaniel deserved to go in last year (or, really, any year since they've become eligible.

• Advanced NFL Stats on the difficulties of measuring and modeling football statistically. I'm not a big enough statistics guy to work on this stuff on my own, but I do understand it enough to use them (and understand whether they're worth using). I think they're important because the stats that are currently used are so obviously flawed (measuring defenses by yards per game, or quarterbacks by yards per completion, or yards per attempts without counting sacks as attempts, for example). Over the past season, more statistical sites have emerged, outside of Cold, Hard, Football Facts (which really isn't an advanced statistical site as much as an alternative statistical site) and Football Outsiders. I thinks that great, because it means there's more people providing me information on football and the Vikings, but it's also important that everyone understand how hard it is figure out the NFL statistically.

• Pacifist Viking defends the Purple's defensive performance the last three years. And the man is right--the Vikings were a good defense in 2006, above average in 2007 and an elite unit in 2008, depending on how good they were at defending the pass. They were 15th in DVOA against the pass in 2006, 23rd in 2007 and 5th in 2008. The interesting thing is that the secondary may have been at it's best in 2006, because the Vikings pass rush was at its worst in 2006, when it was 31st in the NFL in adjusted sack rate. The pass rush has gotten better the past two years, going up to 28th in 2007 (but the secondary wasn't as good) and becoming elite this year, finishing 2nd in ASR.
  

• A clear message has been sent about the Vikings' 2006 draft, by the Vikings themselves (as Grant's Tomb points out). They don't think they did that good of a job with their picks.
  

• Finally, Adrian Peterson has been named a finalist for the 2008 FedEx Air & Ground NFL Players of the Year Award. The winner is determined by fan vote, and if Peterson wins, the Safe Kids Coalition in Minneapolis gets $25,000, so its definitely worth the 30 seconds it takes to vote.
  

Thoughts on the Super Bowl

Did anyone actually expect that to happen? I know I didn't. After Moss caught the go ahead touchdown, I figured it was over. I guess I underestimated Eli Manning. A few more thoughts one the Super Bowl, and two links that capture my feelings on Chris Carter's snub by the Hall of Fame.

• Which was more ridiculous: Eli's escape from four Patriots, or the catch David Tyree made? Both were jawdropping.
  

• The Giants rush was the defining factor in this game. The fact that they could get pressure on Brady without blitzing not only allowed them to have more success in coverage, but also made their blitz more effective. The Patriots didn't know if the Giants were blitzing, and so they couldn't adjust easily. The Giants were also doing a great job of disguising their blitzes. Kawika Mitchell ran a delayed blitz perfectly in the third quarter, turning almost completely around before pinning his ears back and shooting through the gap untouched and causing an incompletion by hitting Brady as he threw. Troy Aikmen did a great job of pointing it out as well.

• Did anyone else have a flashback when Bill Belicheck successfully threw the challenge flag to get a "12 men on the field penalty"?

• I was exceedingly happy to see Randy Moss have an impact on this game, after the Patriots were unable to get him the ball in the first half. He had the go ahead touchdown catch, and end up with 62 yards, and most of his receptions went for first down. The Patriots (and Brady's) inability to involve Moss in the game (Brady overthrew Moss multiple times) was a major reason that the Patriots were unable to get their offense going. I think it was likely a game plan issue, as its too easy to use Moss as a decoy and forget that he's the best wide receiver in the game.
  

• I enjoy watching Brandon Jacobs run the ball, especially since it usually involves him running over a defender.
  

• The fact that Art Monk was chosen ahead of Chris Carter is just another piece of evidence that Hall of Famers in all sports are chosen because of writers biases and ulterior motives, not because of their performance during their careers. Pacifist Viking captures the rational reasons why this was a bad choice by the voters, while Big Daddy Drew nails the emotional response.

[Coming up tomorrow--Thoughts on Chris Simms (ask and ye shall receive) and more Super Bowl fallout]