Opening Day and Thoughts On Cutler

"There is no sports event like Opening Day of baseball, the sense of beating back the forces of darkness and the National Football League."-George Vescey

It's Opening Day. Thankfully. Because the events of the past week have made the upcoming NFL season look a little less exciting. The Bears have a franchise quarterback for the first time in my lifetime, and, while it looks like the Vikings did not have a chance to get Jay Cutler once Matt Cassel was traded to the Chiefs, it's still disappointing to see him end up in the NFC North.

And yes, I know that Cutler is a horrible human being (because their love for Brett Favre shows the media's ability to judge character) , that he doesn't have the intangibles to make the playoffs (last I checked, football is the ultimate team game and his defense was about as bad as the Lions' last year) and that no quarterback that has every demanded a trade could possibly lead a team to the Super Bowl (Eli Manning and John Elway say hello). Doesn't matter to me. Jay Cutler is really, really, really good, he's 25, he made the Pro Bowl last year and he's going to spend at least the next 10 years running the Bears offense and running it well. Really, the only difference between this trade and the Jared Allen trade is one more first round pick, which pays for the two extra years of Cutler's career that will be played with the Bears.

So are the Bears going to win the Super Bowl next year? Probably not. As others have pointed out, Chicago's team is a little too old on defense and a little too shy of play makers on offense (though you'll be surprised how much better their offense is with a real quarterback). But the trade means that not only are they're going to be in contention for the NFC North again this year, but they're probably the favorites to win it and that's mainly because when their offense trots out onto the field, the guy under center is a Pro Bowler, not Tarvaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels.

Turning Down Cutler, but not Tahi

Cutler Rumors
If it's true that the Vikings killed a trade that would have brought them Jay Cutler and the Broncos Matt Cassell, because "some elements in the Minnesota coaching staff weren’t entirely sold on Cutler", then I think we've seen the dumbest personnel decision made by the Vikings' since the Herschel Walker trade. And Brad Childress should get fired for it unless combination of Tarvaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels lead the Vikings to the Super Bowl. Childress may not have been the member of the staff that wasn't sold on Cutler, but the buck stops with him when it comes to the staff weighing in on personnel decisions, so it shouldn't have mattered if Darrell Bevell or Kevin Rogers had a problem with Cutler. And if it was him that killed the deal, well, then I really hope he gets fired, because he has no idea what a quarterback good enough to win the Super Bowl looks like.

Vikings Re-sign Tahi
Apparently they thought it was necessary after Leonard Weaver signed with the Eagles. Weaver would have been a big upgrade on the awful Tahi. Tahi, well, he's not an upgrade, he's a horrible option as receiver and his blocking wasn't all that great from what I could tell. He's not good, but at least it was only a one year deal, which means the Purple can try and upgrade again last year. Really, it wouldn't be a problem if Adrian Peterson got to play more in passing situations, because then the quarterbacks could use him as an outlet, instead of Tahi, who doesn't quite have Peterson's speed, quickness or game changing ability. But we'll leave that one for another day (though I think you can probably tie it back into my point about how Childress should definitely be fired if the Vikings' don't go to the Super Bowl this year).

Killing Time: Cutler, Paymah and the Draft

Jay Cutler
Apparently, Jay Cutler has asked for a trade. I've said it before and I'll say it again--the Vikings should be doing everything they can to acquire Jay Cutler. That includes giving up multiple draft picks. Remember--draft picks are about acquiring good, young talent. Cutler is 25 and he's very good. He's also under contract for three more years, and it's a relatively cheap one for a Pro Bowl quarterback.

More on Cutler:

• Grant's Tomb on the Cutler Experience.

• Kevin Seifert at ESPN's NFC North Blog breaks down the NFC North teams that might want Cutler.

Karl Paymah
The Vikings signed Karl Paymah (making it that much easier for Sports Columnists and Bloggers to make puns while writing about the Vikings) over the weekend. (H/T to Chris for the article). It sounds like Paymah is going to end up playing special teams and competing for the nickleback job, though his contract makes me think the Vikings' expect him to win that job, since his contract is worth about million dollars more than Charles Gordon or Benny Sapp's. I like that the Vikings are acquiring depth at corner, which was arguably their weakest position last year, but it doesn't sound like Paymah, Gordon or Sapp are long term answers, and Antoine Winfield Cedric Griffin are unrestricted free agents at the end of the year.

More on Paymah:

• Access Vikings has a scouting report on Paymah after entering the NFL Draft.

• The ESPN NFC North Blog has the analysis of Paymah from Scouts, Inc.

The Draft

• The National Football Post has an interesting article on offensive linemen's reach and hand size and its effect on their performance.

• New Mock Drafts: NFP has the Vikings taking WR Jeremy Maclin from Missouri in the first round, while SI has the Vikings taking WR/RB Percy Harvin from Florida and Draft Countdown has the Purple taking OT Eben Britton from Arizona with the 22nd pick and CB Sean Smith from Utah with the 54th pick.
  

• Stay tuned to find out who I'll be taking for the Vikings in the No Logo Needed Mock Draft, but I can guarantee you it won't be a wide receiver.
  

Killing Time: No Cutler, No Nobody

The Broncos are insisting that Jay Cutler is not available for trade. Not really all that surprising (Let's be honest--there isn't a person in a front office position in any sport willing to take the risk of trading a 25 year old Pro Bowler under contract for three more years), but still disappointing. I guess it was a nice dream while it lasted.

And now that the dream has withered in the sun, the Vikings no longer have a chance to make a significant upgrade to their team via free agency. While they were busy pursuing Housh and Cutler (and resigning Jim Kleinsasser), almost every player they could have pursued signed somewhere else without even visiting Winter Park. And, if they're not careful, they might lose Matt Birk as well (though whether its a good idea to re-sign the 32 year old center is a whole other issue).

I liked that the Vikings' made a play for Housh and that they tried to trade for Cutler. And the Rosenfels trade does upgrade the quarterback position, even if it only brings it up to "slightly-below average". But the Vikings need to upgrade the right side of their offensive line, they need more depth at cornerback and defensive tackle and they need someone to return punts and possibly kicks (if they don't trust Darius Reynaud to stay healthy). And they haven't even hosted a single player that might address those needs.

It was obvious that the Vikings wouldn't be able to address all of their needs via free agency. But it was also obvious that they wouldn't be able to do so via the draft also (they just have too many needs). And at this point, it looks like the draft is the only option they have left, which means that, one year after a hugely successful foray into free agency, the Vikings failed to make any real improvements during free agency because they didn't try hard enough.

Dreaming Of Cutler

It's clear the Vikings are pushing hard for Jay Cutler. That's the good news. The bad news? He's not going to be easy, or cheap, to get. Is he worth it?

In a word, yes.

Cutler's a 25 year old quarterback that is coming off a year in which he made the Pro Bowl and was one of the best quarterbacks in the league. He would be an instant passing game. Last year, he threw 25 touchdowns and completed 62.3% of 616 pass attempts for 4,526 yards. He averaged 7.1 yards per attempt while only getting sacked 11 times. He was 5th in DYAR and 8th in DVOA last year and 8th and 11th in 2007, his first year of starting. He was really, really good.

Of course, like all players, he has his detractors. The two arguments you hear against Cutler are that he throws a lot of interceptions and that he has yet to lead his team to a winning record, let alone the playoffs. Both of those can be partially explained by the fact that the Broncos were awful defensively the past two years. In 2008, they gave up the third most points in the NFL, allowing their opponents to score 28 a game, which was even worse than their performance in the NFL, when they gave up 25.6 points per game, the fifth worst in the NFL. As we learned the past few years, a team's record is not a very good way to measure a quarterback's performance. Gus Frerotte had a winning record last year, and Tarvaris Jackson had a winning record the year before. When Daunte Culpepper was putting up historic numbers for the 2003 and 2004 Vikings, it wasn't enough to win 10 games because the defense was so awful.

And when your defense is gives up a lot of points, it means your quarterback has to throw the ball a lot against a defense that knows its coming. And when the defense knows you're going to do something, it makes it a lot easier for them to stop. So while Cutler threw 18 interceptions last year, and 14 the year before, its not that surprising considering how often he was passing and how often he was passing against a defense expecting the pass. And even though he threw 18 interceptions, he only threw them on 3.0% of his passes, a number that's more than respectable. To put that in context, Gus Frerotte threw interceptions on 5.0% of his passes last year, Sage Rosenfels threw picks on 5.0% of his passes and Brett Favre threw interceptions on 4.2% of his passes.

So, no matter what people may say, Cutler is good. Really good. And he's signed through the 2011 season. Which means that most likely, the Vikings are going to have to give up a lot in draft picks and likely more than the first and two third rounders they gave up for Jared Allen, whose price tag was lowered by his lack of a long term deal. I'm talking something like two first rounders, with maybe a late rounder or two thrown ni. But would that be worth it?

I think so. Remember--he's young. He's only three years into his career, which means he'll be here a long time, especially if the Vikings sign him to an extension. He'd be worth the 22nd round pick easily. And with him, the Vikings would likely be drafting in the 20s again next year. Draft picks are for acquiring young players and first round draft picks are for acquiring young impact players. And Cutler is a young impact player and is likely going to be better than any player the Vikings would take in the first round the next two years. The Purple have had six draft picks in the second half of the first round in the past 10 years. With those picks, they've drafted the following players:

Year	Player	Draft Position	Position
2006	Chad Greenway	17th	LB
2005	Erasmus James	18th	DE
2004	Kenechi Udeze	20th	DE
2001	Michael Bennett	27th	RB
2000	Chris Hovan	25th	DT
1999	Dimitrius Underwood	29th	DE

Would you trade two of those players for Jay Cutler? I know I would. The only player on that list that's even approached Pro Bowl caliber at any point is Chad Greenway and possibly Chris Hovan. And neither of them play a position as important as quarterback.

I know that this is probably a pipe dream. But it's a fun pipe dream and one I'm glad the Vikings are pursuing. And while the Broncos might not be willing to part with Cutler for anything less than a quarterback (which the Vikings don't have) or a Herschel Walker type deal, if they're willing to give him up for less, then the Vikings need to be willing to give that up for a quarterback that's actually good enough to win the Super Bowl. And make no mistake about it--if you add Jay Cutler to this Vikings' team, they are not only good enough to win the Super Bowl, they're good enough to be the favorite.