ESPN did a profile on the Vikings on Sportscenter today and I managed to record it and put it on youtube. They discussed the Purple's offseason moves, their chances for next year and their draft needs. And apparently they believe the Vikings still have a chance at acquiring Donovan McNabb. Maybe it's just me, but I just don't see it...
Showing posts with label Minnesota Vikings. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Minnesota Vikings. Show all posts
Tuesday, April 01, 2008
Friday, September 07, 2007
Stunning
I have no idea how to react to this column by perpetual curmudgeon, Patrick Reusse. Frankly, I'm speechless.
A columnist in the Star Tribune actually picked the Vikings to be successful this year. And he actually backed it up with some analysis. Reusse's probably been whisked away to the Star Tribune's "re-education center" where's he being force fed pop culture references from three years ago and forced to compare Brad Childress' choice of running backs to "Bachellorette" Trista Rehn's choice of men.
Or maybe he avoided that by getting in a few shots at the unwashed masses that cheer for the Vikings' for being too negative.
...
Moving on to Sunday's game, it seems like those who get to watch it, will get to see the Vikings' start out the season with a win. As I wrote the past two days, the Vikings match up perfectly with the Falcons' offense and defense. And with Rod Coleman still very questionable with a quad injury, Atlanta's going to have even more issues stopping Chester and the Purple Jesus.
That's why I think the Vikings pull this one out easily. Chester and the Purple Jesus combine for 150 yards rushing, the Tarvaris Revolution completes between 55%-60% of his passes for 200 yards and a touchdown and the defense dominates Joey Harrington and the running game like it normally does, picking Harrington off once, sacking him once and holding the Falcons to just under 100 yards rushing.
Vikings win 27-10 and the march to the playoffs begins.
Anyone else care to make any predictions?
A columnist in the Star Tribune actually picked the Vikings to be successful this year. And he actually backed it up with some analysis. Reusse's probably been whisked away to the Star Tribune's "re-education center" where's he being force fed pop culture references from three years ago and forced to compare Brad Childress' choice of running backs to "Bachellorette" Trista Rehn's choice of men.
Or maybe he avoided that by getting in a few shots at the unwashed masses that cheer for the Vikings' for being too negative.
...
Moving on to Sunday's game, it seems like those who get to watch it, will get to see the Vikings' start out the season with a win. As I wrote the past two days, the Vikings match up perfectly with the Falcons' offense and defense. And with Rod Coleman still very questionable with a quad injury, Atlanta's going to have even more issues stopping Chester and the Purple Jesus.
That's why I think the Vikings pull this one out easily. Chester and the Purple Jesus combine for 150 yards rushing, the Tarvaris Revolution completes between 55%-60% of his passes for 200 yards and a touchdown and the defense dominates Joey Harrington and the running game like it normally does, picking Harrington off once, sacking him once and holding the Falcons to just under 100 yards rushing.
Vikings win 27-10 and the march to the playoffs begins.
Anyone else care to make any predictions?
Thursday, September 06, 2007
The Falcons' Defense
Like the Falcons' offense and Vikings' defense, Atlanta's defense is a mirror image of the Vikings' offense. They are very good at stopping the run and bad against the pass, perfect for letting the Tarvaris Revolution hit the proverbial ground running.
Last year, led by the monstrous Grady Jackson (6'2, 345lbs), who you may remember from the Packers, the Falcons line dominated opposing running backs, holding them to an anemic 3.75 yards per carry, the 6th lowest total in the NFL. Only four backs ran for 100 yards against them, and they held their opponents under 100 yards rushing nine times. Their front seven is banged up though, with Grady Jacksons fellow tackle, Rod Coleman, questionable due to a quadricep injury and starting linebacker Demorrio Williams out for the first five weeks of the season due to a torn pectoral muscle.
Despite those injuries, Chester Taylor and the Purple Jesus are still going to have their hands full, something Tarvaris and his merry band of wide outs do not. They're going to have a much easier time against a pass defense that was one of the worst in the NFL last year, and got worse in the offseason, due to the departure of defensive end Patrick Kerney via free agency. Without Kerney, the Falcons will be relying on raw first rounder Jamaal Anderson and John Abraham to improve an ineffective pass rush. The Falcons defense was able to create a negative pass play 8.88% of the time, which was 22nd in the league. And while Abraham was effective when he was healthy last year, he wasn't healthy very often, and his injury problems have started up again, as he's battling a hip flexor injury. And unlike the Vikings, the Falcons don't have a very good secondary to make up for their poor pass rush. DeAngelo Hall is good (55% success rate against passes thrown his way), Jimmy Williams is starting at safety for the first time and Lawyer Milloy is awful, turning in a 40% success rate last year.
The combination of a poor secondary and minimal pass rush meant that the Falcons defense made opposing quarterbacks look like better versions of Tom Brady. Opposing QBs had an 88.8 quarterback rating against Atlanta, which would have been good enough for 9th in the NFL, ahead of Brady's 87.9 rating. It was the 6th worst defensive quarterback rating in the NFL.
That's why this Sunday should be fun for the Revolution and the Vikings. Hutchinson and Birk vs Grady Jackson will be an epic battle in the middle, but Tarvaris shouldn't have any trouble getting off to a good start. And I'm sure I'm not the only one who'd rather the Vikings' experienced players have a challenge instead of the inexperienced ones. Luckily, that's how it's worked out against the Falcons.
Last year, led by the monstrous Grady Jackson (6'2, 345lbs), who you may remember from the Packers, the Falcons line dominated opposing running backs, holding them to an anemic 3.75 yards per carry, the 6th lowest total in the NFL. Only four backs ran for 100 yards against them, and they held their opponents under 100 yards rushing nine times. Their front seven is banged up though, with Grady Jacksons fellow tackle, Rod Coleman, questionable due to a quadricep injury and starting linebacker Demorrio Williams out for the first five weeks of the season due to a torn pectoral muscle.
Despite those injuries, Chester Taylor and the Purple Jesus are still going to have their hands full, something Tarvaris and his merry band of wide outs do not. They're going to have a much easier time against a pass defense that was one of the worst in the NFL last year, and got worse in the offseason, due to the departure of defensive end Patrick Kerney via free agency. Without Kerney, the Falcons will be relying on raw first rounder Jamaal Anderson and John Abraham to improve an ineffective pass rush. The Falcons defense was able to create a negative pass play 8.88% of the time, which was 22nd in the league. And while Abraham was effective when he was healthy last year, he wasn't healthy very often, and his injury problems have started up again, as he's battling a hip flexor injury. And unlike the Vikings, the Falcons don't have a very good secondary to make up for their poor pass rush. DeAngelo Hall is good (55% success rate against passes thrown his way), Jimmy Williams is starting at safety for the first time and Lawyer Milloy is awful, turning in a 40% success rate last year.
The combination of a poor secondary and minimal pass rush meant that the Falcons defense made opposing quarterbacks look like better versions of Tom Brady. Opposing QBs had an 88.8 quarterback rating against Atlanta, which would have been good enough for 9th in the NFL, ahead of Brady's 87.9 rating. It was the 6th worst defensive quarterback rating in the NFL.
That's why this Sunday should be fun for the Revolution and the Vikings. Hutchinson and Birk vs Grady Jackson will be an epic battle in the middle, but Tarvaris shouldn't have any trouble getting off to a good start. And I'm sure I'm not the only one who'd rather the Vikings' experienced players have a challenge instead of the inexperienced ones. Luckily, that's how it's worked out against the Falcons.
Monday, September 03, 2007
A Guide to Making the Playoffs
I'm too good to quote Jim Mora. There--I said it. Never said I wasn't an arrogant SOB. And that's why I'm not leading off this post with his infamous "Playoffs" rant. And now that I've said that, let us delve into the Vikings' schedule and see whether or not it's going to help them return to the Playoffs.
Last year, the Vikings had a ridiculously easy schedule, one of the main reasons that I thought they were going to make the playoffs. And they came pretty close (something no one seems to be mentioning--one more touchdown at San Fransisco and one more field goal against Green Bay, and they would have made it). This year, they have the 21st easiest schedule, according to Football Outsiders, with their projected opponents averaging a -2.1% DVOA. In comparison, the hardest schedule in the NFL belongs to Buffalo, whose opponents average DVOA is 8.6%. So that bodes well.
As we saw last year, however, just having an easy schedule isn't enough. The Vikings have to get to nine wins to assure themselves a spot in the postseason. Luckily for the Vikings, there schedule is easy because it's relatively extreme, with both good and bad teams on it, rather then full of teams competing for the last spot in the playoffs.
I've sorted the Vikings' schedule into four groups, using Football Outsiders' Mean Win projection for each team and whether it's at the Dome or on the road. The groups are games the Vikings "Must Win", "Should Win", "Can Win" and "Might Win" and each team is followed by their mean win projection and the week in which they square off against the Vikings.
To the left of each group name is the record the Vikings should post against that group in order to reach 9-7 and the promised land of the playoffs. Obviously, the 3-1 record in the "Must Win" games seems to contradict the group name, but it takes into account a Vikings dropping a game they shouldn't, something I'm more certain of then anything else.
The schedule also works out nicely for the Vikings in that six of their eight easy games are against NFC teams, giving them an easy path to a winning conference record, an important tie breaker in the fight for the last Wild Card berth. What isn't so good, however, is the fact that all four games against Chicago and Green Bay fall on the wrong side of the easy-hard divide. As the NFC East demonstrated last year, however, three teams from a conference can make the playoffs, with 9-7 Cowboys and the 8-8 Giants filling the two Wild Card spots.
And so, once again, the Vikings' schedule gives them a great shot at the playoffs, with more then enough winnable games. We'll have to wait to see whether or not they'll be able to seize the opportunity this year, or if they'll fall short again, but not too long--only until Sunday.
Last year, the Vikings had a ridiculously easy schedule, one of the main reasons that I thought they were going to make the playoffs. And they came pretty close (something no one seems to be mentioning--one more touchdown at San Fransisco and one more field goal against Green Bay, and they would have made it). This year, they have the 21st easiest schedule, according to Football Outsiders, with their projected opponents averaging a -2.1% DVOA. In comparison, the hardest schedule in the NFL belongs to Buffalo, whose opponents average DVOA is 8.6%. So that bodes well.
As we saw last year, however, just having an easy schedule isn't enough. The Vikings have to get to nine wins to assure themselves a spot in the postseason. Luckily for the Vikings, there schedule is easy because it's relatively extreme, with both good and bad teams on it, rather then full of teams competing for the last spot in the playoffs.
I've sorted the Vikings' schedule into four groups, using Football Outsiders' Mean Win projection for each team and whether it's at the Dome or on the road. The groups are games the Vikings "Must Win", "Should Win", "Can Win" and "Might Win" and each team is followed by their mean win projection and the week in which they square off against the Vikings.
| Must Win | 3 -1 | Should Win | 3 - 1 |
| 2 - 2 | Might Win | 1 - 3 | ||||||
| @ KC | 5.2 | Wk 3 | ATL | 7.6 | Wk 1 | SD | 8.6 | Wk 9 | GB | 9.5 | Wk 4 | ||
| @ DAL | 6.4 | Wk 7 | @ DET | 7.1 | Wk 2 | CHI | 8.3 | Wk 15 | @ DEN | 8.7 | Wk 17 | ||
| OAK | 6.5 | Wk 11 | @ NYG | 7 | Wk 12 | @ SF | 8.1 | Wk 14 | @ GB | 9.5 | Wk 4 | ||
| DET | 7.1 | Wk 13 | WAS | 8.2 | Wk 16 | @ CHI | 8.3 | Wk 6 | PHI | 11 | Wk 8 |
To the left of each group name is the record the Vikings should post against that group in order to reach 9-7 and the promised land of the playoffs. Obviously, the 3-1 record in the "Must Win" games seems to contradict the group name, but it takes into account a Vikings dropping a game they shouldn't, something I'm more certain of then anything else.
The schedule also works out nicely for the Vikings in that six of their eight easy games are against NFC teams, giving them an easy path to a winning conference record, an important tie breaker in the fight for the last Wild Card berth. What isn't so good, however, is the fact that all four games against Chicago and Green Bay fall on the wrong side of the easy-hard divide. As the NFC East demonstrated last year, however, three teams from a conference can make the playoffs, with 9-7 Cowboys and the 8-8 Giants filling the two Wild Card spots.
And so, once again, the Vikings' schedule gives them a great shot at the playoffs, with more then enough winnable games. We'll have to wait to see whether or not they'll be able to seize the opportunity this year, or if they'll fall short again, but not too long--only until Sunday.
Sunday, July 29, 2007
Back to Lead the Revolucion
Do the analysts and prognosticators have you down? Trying to figure out how an offense with a second year quarterback throwing to no name receivers, two running backs with durability issues and a line with question marks on the right side is going to get a quality defense into the playoffs? Well, I 'm back! And I’m ready to show how you too can realistically and reasonably hope for the Vikings to make the playoffs. (I can tell you’re excited. At least as excited as you are about Adrian Peterson signing only a few days into training camp.)
So lets start with the biggest question the Vikings have—can Tarvaris Jackson play well enough to be an effective quarterback? I say yes. And I’m not the only one (there are quite a few bloggers who are with me). The premiere NFL analysts on the web, the Football Outsiders, have put out their Pro Football Prospuctus for 2007, and based up on their KUBIAK projection system, it seems the Vikings’ decision not to acquire Jeff Garcia, David Carr or Matt Schaub was a good one.
Tarvaris Jackson: 58.5 Completion Perc., 3363 yds 16TD 16INT, 101 rushes, 677yds
Jeff Garcia: 56.7 Completion Perc., 2640 yards 18 TD, 21 INT, 43 rushes, 133yds
David Carr: 60 Completion Perc., 2644yds 17 TD, 19 INT, 42 rushes, 185 yds
Matt Schaub: 62.4 Completion Perc. 3175yds, 15TD 14 INT, 49 rushes 167yds
Well that TD:INT ration isn’t all that great, I don’t think any Vikings fan will be unhappy with a QB that throws 3 less interceptions and 5 more TD. Not to mention 677 rushing yards. Don’t underestimate the effect a scrambling quarterback can have on a secondary. As Michael Vick would tell you (were he not, you know, busy), that doesn’t mean the receivers will catch the ball, however. It’s definitely an offensive weapon that Brad Childress had when Brad Johnson was quarterback.
Is Tarvaris Jackson going to be able to turn the Vikings’ offense from the awful unit it was last year into the Greatest Show on Turf? No. But the Vikings’ defense didn’t need the Greatest Show on Turf to make the playoffs last year. Not even close. All it needed was a competent offense, something the Vikings’ offense was not. One more touchdown could have made the difference in five games the Vikings’ lost last year. Just one more. And as you may remember from earlier in the post, KUBIAK has Tarvaris throwing for five more touchdowns in 2007 than the Vikings’ passing attack generated last year. And that doesn’t even account for the addition of Adrian Peterson. All the offense needs to be is competent. And Tarvaris and Adrian are going to ensure it is
Viva la Tarvaris Revolucion!!
So lets start with the biggest question the Vikings have—can Tarvaris Jackson play well enough to be an effective quarterback? I say yes. And I’m not the only one (there are quite a few bloggers who are with me). The premiere NFL analysts on the web, the Football Outsiders, have put out their Pro Football Prospuctus for 2007, and based up on their KUBIAK projection system, it seems the Vikings’ decision not to acquire Jeff Garcia, David Carr or Matt Schaub was a good one.
Tarvaris Jackson: 58.5 Completion Perc., 3363 yds 16TD 16INT, 101 rushes, 677yds
Jeff Garcia: 56.7 Completion Perc., 2640 yards 18 TD, 21 INT, 43 rushes, 133yds
David Carr: 60 Completion Perc., 2644yds 17 TD, 19 INT, 42 rushes, 185 yds
Matt Schaub: 62.4 Completion Perc. 3175yds, 15TD 14 INT, 49 rushes 167yds
Well that TD:INT ration isn’t all that great, I don’t think any Vikings fan will be unhappy with a QB that throws 3 less interceptions and 5 more TD. Not to mention 677 rushing yards. Don’t underestimate the effect a scrambling quarterback can have on a secondary. As Michael Vick would tell you (were he not, you know, busy), that doesn’t mean the receivers will catch the ball, however. It’s definitely an offensive weapon that Brad Childress had when Brad Johnson was quarterback.
Is Tarvaris Jackson going to be able to turn the Vikings’ offense from the awful unit it was last year into the Greatest Show on Turf? No. But the Vikings’ defense didn’t need the Greatest Show on Turf to make the playoffs last year. Not even close. All it needed was a competent offense, something the Vikings’ offense was not. One more touchdown could have made the difference in five games the Vikings’ lost last year. Just one more. And as you may remember from earlier in the post, KUBIAK has Tarvaris throwing for five more touchdowns in 2007 than the Vikings’ passing attack generated last year. And that doesn’t even account for the addition of Adrian Peterson. All the offense needs to be is competent. And Tarvaris and Adrian are going to ensure it is
Viva la Tarvaris Revolucion!!
Thursday, March 22, 2007
Get Carr Now!
The Houston Texans have acquired Matt Schaub from the Falcons for draft picks, meaning David Carr is available and that he's available for a lot less. This is the perfect opportunity for the Purple to turn a lackluster offseason into an intriguing one. It is a chance to trade for a quarterback that has the skills necessary to run Childress' offense while the Tarvaris Revolution gains the experience needed to make the jump from 1-AA to the NFL. And it's a chance to do so at a reduced cost. Trading for David Carr would be a great move by the Vikings, would signal to their fans that they are not only trying to rebuild the franchise (which is necessary) but also trying to win before their defensive stars get old. And it can most likely be done for a reasonable price in draft picks.
So basically, what I'm trying to say is that I have no confidence that the Vikings will pull off a trade for David Carr.
So basically, what I'm trying to say is that I have no confidence that the Vikings will pull off a trade for David Carr.
Tuesday, March 13, 2007
As a Tumbleweed Goes By...
Sooooo....is anyone actually thinking about the Vikings right now? I mean, the bracket just came out, Spring Training is in full swing, and the Purple are in something of a wait and see mode (please note the sarcasm dripping all over that last phrase). The only chance they have to sign a "big" name is if they can get Kevin Curtis to put his name on the dotted line, and who knows when he'll do that, what with four different teams courting him, new agents and the knowledge that he is the best reciever left on the market. Their other opportunity to make news isn't until the draft, which is a good month and a half away. And the fun thing is, no one is going to be that happy with the Vikings draft unless Calvin Johnson falls to them in the first round (not happening) or Dwayne Jarrett falls to them in the second (ditto). Bobby Wade might be a good addition, but only as a 2nd or 3rd reciever. Right now, he's the clear #1. [Fun quote from Football Outsider's NFL North Offseason Preview, "Hopefully, their big additions are not Bobby Wade and Justin Gage, who would form a nice threesome with McMullen on an all-replacement level team. "]
Vikings fans should not despair, however. As Cold, Hard Football Facts notes, "Pro Bowlers aren’t bought, they’re drafted. " They also compare and contrast the Vikings' 2006 offseason with the Colts'. Guess which team made a bigger splash in free agency (Here's a hint: it wasn't the team that won the Super Bowl.) And since it's clear that the Vikings aren't going to win any awards this offseason, one can only hope that Tarvaris Jackson duplicates Daunte Culpeppers 2000 season. Or, if they're like me, they can spend their time thinking about baseball and whether or not it's ok for them to pick against their alma mater in their bracket.
[On a somewhat related note, I've rejoined the MNGameday team for baseball season, and I'll be writing a weekly links column, as well as a regular column every other week or so. My first column, naturally is not about the Twins, but is instead about my love for the Georgetown Hoyas.]
Vikings fans should not despair, however. As Cold, Hard Football Facts notes, "Pro Bowlers aren’t bought, they’re drafted. " They also compare and contrast the Vikings' 2006 offseason with the Colts'. Guess which team made a bigger splash in free agency (Here's a hint: it wasn't the team that won the Super Bowl.) And since it's clear that the Vikings aren't going to win any awards this offseason, one can only hope that Tarvaris Jackson duplicates Daunte Culpeppers 2000 season. Or, if they're like me, they can spend their time thinking about baseball and whether or not it's ok for them to pick against their alma mater in their bracket.
[On a somewhat related note, I've rejoined the MNGameday team for baseball season, and I'll be writing a weekly links column, as well as a regular column every other week or so. My first column, naturally is not about the Twins, but is instead about my love for the Georgetown Hoyas.]
Wednesday, March 07, 2007
The Rebuilding of the Receiving Corp
The Vikings finally inked their first free agent that didn't come with a pronunciation guide last night, signing Bobby Wade, formerly of the Tennessee Titans, for five years and $15 million. Wade had something of a break out year last season, finishing second on the team with 33 receptions for 461 yards. While the totals don't seem all that impressive, they're deceptive.
First off, the Titans were starting a rookie Vince Young, at quarterback (Yes, he was Rookie of the Year, but he was still a rookie) . Jeff Fisher is an intelligent coach--he wasn't going to put the focus on his brand new franchise quarterback. The Titans ran the ball about half the time and had the fifth lowest passing attempts in the NFL. And Vince Young finished with the worst completion percentage in the NFL, at 51.5% (and I wonder how he's going to do now that his top two receivers have gone elsewhere?)
Secondly, as I mentioned yesterday, Wade added a lot of value to the Titans. He contributed 11.1 DPAR, which was 1.5 more than the Vikings leading receiver. The reason he was able to do so was because of what he did with his limited receptions. His 14.9% DVOA was the 19th best in the NFL. Both of these totals were better than Drew Bennett's, who had 6.6 DPAR and -4.5% DVOA. Wade even has a decent catch percentage, as he hauled in 57% of the passes thrown to him, which puts him somewhere in the middle of the pack for wide receivers. For example, he would have been behind Travis Taylor (65%) but ahead of Marcus Robinson (50%) on the Vikings last year. When using that stat, one must also remember that it does not attempt to decide where the fault for the incompletion lies, and Wade was playing with the most inaccurate quarterback in the NFL.
So while Wade's statistics may not be all that impressive by themselves, when taken in context, they show a receiver who will be an upgrade over any of the wide outs from last season. His addition is a good first step for the Vikings as they attempt to provide Tarvaris Jackson with someone to throw to.
First off, the Titans were starting a rookie Vince Young, at quarterback (Yes, he was Rookie of the Year, but he was still a rookie) . Jeff Fisher is an intelligent coach--he wasn't going to put the focus on his brand new franchise quarterback. The Titans ran the ball about half the time and had the fifth lowest passing attempts in the NFL. And Vince Young finished with the worst completion percentage in the NFL, at 51.5% (and I wonder how he's going to do now that his top two receivers have gone elsewhere?)
Secondly, as I mentioned yesterday, Wade added a lot of value to the Titans. He contributed 11.1 DPAR, which was 1.5 more than the Vikings leading receiver. The reason he was able to do so was because of what he did with his limited receptions. His 14.9% DVOA was the 19th best in the NFL. Both of these totals were better than Drew Bennett's, who had 6.6 DPAR and -4.5% DVOA. Wade even has a decent catch percentage, as he hauled in 57% of the passes thrown to him, which puts him somewhere in the middle of the pack for wide receivers. For example, he would have been behind Travis Taylor (65%) but ahead of Marcus Robinson (50%) on the Vikings last year. When using that stat, one must also remember that it does not attempt to decide where the fault for the incompletion lies, and Wade was playing with the most inaccurate quarterback in the NFL.
So while Wade's statistics may not be all that impressive by themselves, when taken in context, they show a receiver who will be an upgrade over any of the wide outs from last season. His addition is a good first step for the Vikings as they attempt to provide Tarvaris Jackson with someone to throw to.
Tuesday, March 06, 2007
Treading Water
It says something about how a team is doing in free agency when the only move that helped close the gap (even if only by a little) between them and their division leader was made by the division leader. While the Vikings were busy cutting "Double Duty" Smoot, Jermaine Wiggins, Brad Johnson and Mike Rosenthal, other teams were busy trying to sign their top free agent targets.
And then, when the Vikings were busy signing the guys they wanted the most (Sadly, I would not be too surprised if that were true about Visanthe Shiancoe and Vinny Ciurciu), the other teams were signing the players the Vikings needed the most. Ashley Lelie and Drew Bennett never made it to Minnesota, signing with the 49ers and Rams respectively. Kevin Curtis stopped by, but didn't feel wanted, what with all the coaches working on pronouncing vi-sahn-tee SHANK-oh and church-choo. And while all that was going on, the Vikings missed out on the top defensive end still available, as Patrick Kierney signed with Seattle.
The Vikings have missed out on every opportunity to really improve themselves so far. And now, they are forced to sift through the sleepers, hoping they get lucky by signing Bobby Wade. For once, they might actually do so. Wade wasn't the focal point of the Titans offense by any stretch, but he's still young (26) and provided some value for them. And by some, I mean much, much more than anything the Vikings got out of their recievers. He had the 19th best DVOA, with 14.9%, though that might be slightly inflated, as he only caught 33 passes, racking up an 11.1 DPAR. If he's able to maintain that kind of value as the focal point of the Vikings passing game, however, , he'd be an amazing addition, roughly equivalant to adding a Roy Williams. And apparently, he can return kicks too. He's probably the best available reciever left (except for perhaps Eric Moulds), which means he'll most likely sign somewhere else, and Vikings' fans will have to decide if Dante "In Rehab" Stallworth is a better signing than vi-sahn-tee SHANK-oh or Vinny church-choo. If that happens, the Vikings biggest worry will be pronouncing "Home Games Blacked Out".
And then, when the Vikings were busy signing the guys they wanted the most (Sadly, I would not be too surprised if that were true about Visanthe Shiancoe and Vinny Ciurciu), the other teams were signing the players the Vikings needed the most. Ashley Lelie and Drew Bennett never made it to Minnesota, signing with the 49ers and Rams respectively. Kevin Curtis stopped by, but didn't feel wanted, what with all the coaches working on pronouncing vi-sahn-tee SHANK-oh and church-choo. And while all that was going on, the Vikings missed out on the top defensive end still available, as Patrick Kierney signed with Seattle.
The Vikings have missed out on every opportunity to really improve themselves so far. And now, they are forced to sift through the sleepers, hoping they get lucky by signing Bobby Wade. For once, they might actually do so. Wade wasn't the focal point of the Titans offense by any stretch, but he's still young (26) and provided some value for them. And by some, I mean much, much more than anything the Vikings got out of their recievers. He had the 19th best DVOA, with 14.9%, though that might be slightly inflated, as he only caught 33 passes, racking up an 11.1 DPAR. If he's able to maintain that kind of value as the focal point of the Vikings passing game, however, , he'd be an amazing addition, roughly equivalant to adding a Roy Williams. And apparently, he can return kicks too. He's probably the best available reciever left (except for perhaps Eric Moulds), which means he'll most likely sign somewhere else, and Vikings' fans will have to decide if Dante "In Rehab" Stallworth is a better signing than vi-sahn-tee SHANK-oh or Vinny church-choo. If that happens, the Vikings biggest worry will be pronouncing "Home Games Blacked Out".
Thursday, March 01, 2007
Only One Brad Remains
In a move that surprised no one and delighted many, the Vikings cut Brad Johnson last night, allowing him to chase his dream of once again being the backup quarterback that saves a team's season. After watching him this year, however, I just can't see him repeating his 2005 performance.
That being said, Brad has given the Vikings some good years during his two stints as the Vikings' starting quarterback. Until this year, when he posted a 72.0, his lowest QB rating as a starter was 84.5, mostly due to his accuracy, completing an average of 62% of his passes over his five years. Were it not for a season ending injury in 1998, he might have been a career Viking. What goes around, comes around, however, as without Daunte's injury, he would have not have gotten a second chance to run the Vikings.
His second stint ended as poorly as his first. While he avoided injury, Johnson's arm no longer had the zip necessary for an NFL quarterback, losing his job twice--once to Brooks Bollinger, and then, after regaining it due to Bollinger's injury, succumbing to the Tarvaris Revolution. He feuded with the coaching staff, agitated in the press for an extension and a raise and was not on speaking terms with his head coach. By the end of the season, all parties agreed it was time for him to move on.
With the end of his career in Purple, Johnson will most likely be remember for always being at the right place at the right time. Whether it was throwing the pass that Randy Moss tipped to himself in the 1998 opener against Tampa Bay, catching his own pass for a touchdown, or leading the offense to their only points at the end of the game against the Giants when the Vikings returned a punt, kickoff and interception for touchdowns, he usually capitalized on his opportunities. If he gets another shot at leading a team, don't be surprised to see them suceed, even if it isn't actually because of him.
That being said, Brad has given the Vikings some good years during his two stints as the Vikings' starting quarterback. Until this year, when he posted a 72.0, his lowest QB rating as a starter was 84.5, mostly due to his accuracy, completing an average of 62% of his passes over his five years. Were it not for a season ending injury in 1998, he might have been a career Viking. What goes around, comes around, however, as without Daunte's injury, he would have not have gotten a second chance to run the Vikings.
His second stint ended as poorly as his first. While he avoided injury, Johnson's arm no longer had the zip necessary for an NFL quarterback, losing his job twice--once to Brooks Bollinger, and then, after regaining it due to Bollinger's injury, succumbing to the Tarvaris Revolution. He feuded with the coaching staff, agitated in the press for an extension and a raise and was not on speaking terms with his head coach. By the end of the season, all parties agreed it was time for him to move on.
With the end of his career in Purple, Johnson will most likely be remember for always being at the right place at the right time. Whether it was throwing the pass that Randy Moss tipped to himself in the 1998 opener against Tampa Bay, catching his own pass for a touchdown, or leading the offense to their only points at the end of the game against the Giants when the Vikings returned a punt, kickoff and interception for touchdowns, he usually capitalized on his opportunities. If he gets another shot at leading a team, don't be surprised to see them suceed, even if it isn't actually because of him.
Wednesday, February 21, 2007
Vikings Give Recievers Reason to Fear
By resigning Tank Williams, the Vikings insured that they would have both depth and a player with the ability to level wide receivers starting at strong safety. Assuming that Dwight Smith is cut due to the depth at the position, his off field shenanigans and his lack of a strong backer in the coaching staff, the Vikings have set up a training camp battle between Greg Blue and Tank Williams. And both of them can absolutely destroy people, something Smith wasn't known for.
Blue demonstrated his ability at the position during his rookie year while filling in for Smith against the Redskins and Packers, and more importantly, showed that he has the ability to make a wide receiver remember him, a trait he also showed in college.
Even if Blue can't beat out Williams for the starting role, the Vikings will still have an enforcer back there. I don't have video evidence of this, but the man's name is Tank after all. You don't pickup a nickname like that by intercepting passes.
[On a draft related note, the Star Tribune has a nice piece today about why the Vikings should think twice about drafting a wide receiver with their first round pick that you should make sure you read]
Blue demonstrated his ability at the position during his rookie year while filling in for Smith against the Redskins and Packers, and more importantly, showed that he has the ability to make a wide receiver remember him, a trait he also showed in college.
Even if Blue can't beat out Williams for the starting role, the Vikings will still have an enforcer back there. I don't have video evidence of this, but the man's name is Tank after all. You don't pickup a nickname like that by intercepting passes.
[On a draft related note, the Star Tribune has a nice piece today about why the Vikings should think twice about drafting a wide receiver with their first round pick that you should make sure you read]
Friday, February 16, 2007
Should the Vikings Go After David Carr?
Various news sources are reporting that the Vikings are considering swinging a trade with Houston for David Carr, an idea that I did not initially endorse. But, like a smart fan, I didn’t let my emotions about the Tarvaris Revolution cloud my judgment, instead choosing to base my opinion on the stats. After doing so, I’ve come to the conclusion that Carr would be a great fit for the Vikings over the next two years, allowing Tarvaris to spend another year or two developing prior to taking over.
First off, Carr’s contract should fit perfectly into the Vikings’ plans. He has only two years remaining, both of which are pretty cheap--he’s only owed $5.25 million next season and $6 million in 2008. While 2008 might feature a quarterback controversy, having Carr there would be extremely useful if the Revolution has problems as the starter.
Secondly, Carr is a decent young quarterback with room for improvement. He finished 15th overall, with an 82.1 QB rating, despite having a line that allowed him to be sacked 41 times. Even though he faced constant pressure, he still demonstrated the accuracy needed for the Vikings’ offense, completing over 60% of his passes the last three seasons, including 68.3% of them last year. He has had problems with turnovers, though, averaging 13 interceptions and 13.6 fumbles a season, including 11 picks and 16 fumbles last season. A lot of that, however, can likely be attributed to the beating he took behind the Texans’ porous offensive line.
Of course, that’s nothing new for him, as he’s been sacked 249 times in his five year career, or seven more times than Brad Johnson has been in his 15 year career. Read that sentence again—Carr has been sacked more than Brad Johnson has, despite having played for a third as many seasons. Despite the punishment, he’s held up well, having only missed three games in his career due to injury.
If the Vikings’ were to acquire him, conventional wisdom holds that his stats would improve due to his having more time to work with in the pocket. While he would likely face less pressure than he did in his first four seasons, last year, the Vikings’ line was not effective in avoiding negative pass plays, which a stat Cold Hard Football Facts keeps, which measures “how often pass plays end in either a sack or interception”. The Texans had 10.69% of their pass plays end negatively, which was the 22nd best total in the league. This was a vast improvement over the 15.7% from the year before, but still pretty bad. The Vikings were actually worse, however, as 10.81% of their pass plays ended negatively. The difference, however, was due to interceptions as the Vikings had a 19 picks and 43 sacks, while the Texans had 13 picks and 42 sacks. It’s also likely that some of the Vikings’ sacks were due to Johnson’s immobility. Carr, having slightly more mobility than Johnson (as does my desk), should be able to avoid some of the sacks that Johnson could not.
I believe that Tarvaris Jackson has the potential to be a star quarterback in the NFL, and would play well next season if he is the starter. If Brad Childress and the Vikings’ don’t think so, however, I hope that they go after David Carr, because Carr would provide durability, accuracy and potential, which Garcia would not.
First off, Carr’s contract should fit perfectly into the Vikings’ plans. He has only two years remaining, both of which are pretty cheap--he’s only owed $5.25 million next season and $6 million in 2008. While 2008 might feature a quarterback controversy, having Carr there would be extremely useful if the Revolution has problems as the starter.
Secondly, Carr is a decent young quarterback with room for improvement. He finished 15th overall, with an 82.1 QB rating, despite having a line that allowed him to be sacked 41 times. Even though he faced constant pressure, he still demonstrated the accuracy needed for the Vikings’ offense, completing over 60% of his passes the last three seasons, including 68.3% of them last year. He has had problems with turnovers, though, averaging 13 interceptions and 13.6 fumbles a season, including 11 picks and 16 fumbles last season. A lot of that, however, can likely be attributed to the beating he took behind the Texans’ porous offensive line.
Of course, that’s nothing new for him, as he’s been sacked 249 times in his five year career, or seven more times than Brad Johnson has been in his 15 year career. Read that sentence again—Carr has been sacked more than Brad Johnson has, despite having played for a third as many seasons. Despite the punishment, he’s held up well, having only missed three games in his career due to injury.
If the Vikings’ were to acquire him, conventional wisdom holds that his stats would improve due to his having more time to work with in the pocket. While he would likely face less pressure than he did in his first four seasons, last year, the Vikings’ line was not effective in avoiding negative pass plays, which a stat Cold Hard Football Facts keeps, which measures “how often pass plays end in either a sack or interception”. The Texans had 10.69% of their pass plays end negatively, which was the 22nd best total in the league. This was a vast improvement over the 15.7% from the year before, but still pretty bad. The Vikings were actually worse, however, as 10.81% of their pass plays ended negatively. The difference, however, was due to interceptions as the Vikings had a 19 picks and 43 sacks, while the Texans had 13 picks and 42 sacks. It’s also likely that some of the Vikings’ sacks were due to Johnson’s immobility. Carr, having slightly more mobility than Johnson (as does my desk), should be able to avoid some of the sacks that Johnson could not.
I believe that Tarvaris Jackson has the potential to be a star quarterback in the NFL, and would play well next season if he is the starter. If Brad Childress and the Vikings’ don’t think so, however, I hope that they go after David Carr, because Carr would provide durability, accuracy and potential, which Garcia would not.
Tuesday, February 13, 2007
A Look Around the Web
As we all know, there's something of a lull between the Super Bowl and the NFL draft. And by that I mean that there's really no point in paying attention to football right now unless something crazy happens to your team (and you thought the Vikings were dysfunctional). Barring a coach firing, there really isn't a lot going on here in the land of the Purple, so it's time to take a look around the web and see what we piques our interest.
- NFL Draft Countdown has a new mock draft up (as of Feb. 6). They have the Vikings taking Gaines Adams after Calvin Johnson and Jamaal Anderson go #4 and #5. What's really interesting, however, is their mock of the second round, where they have the Vikings bypassing the best WR left (Anthony Gonzalez) to take Greg Olson, a tight end out of Miami. Not a bad choice, since Childress' offense should feature a good pass catching tight end (based on how the Eagles have used the position), something it didn't do this last season.
- If the Vikings take Olson, it will likely mean the end of the Jermaine Wiggins' era. While his ridiculous Bahstan accent will be missed, he wasn't able to get the job done last year, despite the Vikings' emphasis on short passes, which should have helped his production.
- If you read that last link from the Star Tribune's Vikings' blog, you'll notice that Fred Smoot's name was not listed with Wiggins, Dwight Smith's and Mike Rosenthal's. Commenter "Jason J" appears to be correct when he said the Vikings would hang on to the Love Boat star.
- Just because the Vikings are hanging on to Ol' Double Duty, doesn't mean he's going to start, however. As you can see from Judd Zalgad's answers to reader questions, Cedric Griffin (and not Nate Clements) will be starting opposite Antoine Winfield.
- Finally, ESPN.com has actually allowed someone to question the NFL's conduct and product. And they're dead on with all of their points. The way the NFL is handling the concussion epidemic is downright criminal, as is their disregard for former players. That, combined with the legal problems of some current players has the high probability of creating a backlash, especially if the games continue to be over hyped, too long and poorly played.
Friday, February 09, 2007
"You Wait For Good Things"
The above quote from Brad Childress both explains the eighteen day wait for Tomlin's replacement and suggests that Leslie Frazier is going to be able to keep improving the Vikings' defense despite his "rocky stint" as Cincinnati's Defensive Coordinator. And I think he's right about that.
Frazier explains:
Obviously (and thankfully) Childress isn't going to get involved on the defensive side of the ball. He didn't with Tomlin, and he won't with Frazier. It helps that Frazier is a disciple of the Tampa 2 (though really, who isn't these days?), even though his version of the scheme incorporates more blitzes than Tomlin's did.
That should be a good thing. If the Vikings retain Harris, linebacker will be amongst the deepest positions they have, with three quality players (possibly four if Greenway plays up to his potential) whose strength lies in blitzing and playing the run. Frazier's scheme should play to their strengths, allowing the Vikings to get pressure without having to rely so heavily on their defensive line.
What it will also likely do is shift the Vikings' focus in free agency from defensive end (of which there are few quality free agents) to cornerback. While Antoine Winfield is an elite corner, that stems as much from his tackling and ability against the run as it does his coverage ability. Fred Smoot is likely as good as gone. Cedric Griffin and Dovonte Edwards are both decent corners, but neither is likely to be in the Pro Bowl next year. Edwards didn't play last year, and while Griffin started as rookie, it would be best if he could remain as the Nickleback for another year. Luckily for the Vikings, it's a good year for cornerbacks in free agency. I can't say I would mind seeing the Bills starting corners from 2001 to 2003 reunited. Or seeing if Asante Samuel can set a record.
[Update: There's a breakdown of the Wide Recievers in the draft over at Rumors and Rants if you're interested. Just be careful--I don't want anyone getting hurt in the mad scramble to get over there. If you're smart, you'll pay particular attention to the recievers not named Johnson, Jarrett or Ginn, Jr. because those are the ones most likely to end up in Purple next year]
Frazier explains:
"If [defense] is your background," Frazier said, "it's a hard thing to let it go and trust. My personality, some people would say I'm a soft-spoken guy. But I have some strong convictions about certain things. Certain things, I'm not
necessarily going to compromise on."
Obviously (and thankfully) Childress isn't going to get involved on the defensive side of the ball. He didn't with Tomlin, and he won't with Frazier. It helps that Frazier is a disciple of the Tampa 2 (though really, who isn't these days?), even though his version of the scheme incorporates more blitzes than Tomlin's did.
That should be a good thing. If the Vikings retain Harris, linebacker will be amongst the deepest positions they have, with three quality players (possibly four if Greenway plays up to his potential) whose strength lies in blitzing and playing the run. Frazier's scheme should play to their strengths, allowing the Vikings to get pressure without having to rely so heavily on their defensive line.
What it will also likely do is shift the Vikings' focus in free agency from defensive end (of which there are few quality free agents) to cornerback. While Antoine Winfield is an elite corner, that stems as much from his tackling and ability against the run as it does his coverage ability. Fred Smoot is likely as good as gone. Cedric Griffin and Dovonte Edwards are both decent corners, but neither is likely to be in the Pro Bowl next year. Edwards didn't play last year, and while Griffin started as rookie, it would be best if he could remain as the Nickleback for another year. Luckily for the Vikings, it's a good year for cornerbacks in free agency. I can't say I would mind seeing the Bills starting corners from 2001 to 2003 reunited. Or seeing if Asante Samuel can set a record.
[Update: There's a breakdown of the Wide Recievers in the draft over at Rumors and Rants if you're interested. Just be careful--I don't want anyone getting hurt in the mad scramble to get over there. If you're smart, you'll pay particular attention to the recievers not named Johnson, Jarrett or Ginn, Jr. because those are the ones most likely to end up in Purple next year]
Thursday, February 08, 2007
The Reason for the Wait
It turns out there was a reason for the Vikings to wait so long for a defensive coordinator--they were waiting for the Colts to be done with the playoffs. Welcome to the Purple, Leslie Frazier! Hopefully, you're even more successful than your predecessor.
Leslie Frazier, prior to adding his second Super Bowl Ring?
Wednesday, February 07, 2007
Some Background for Speculation
As everyone knows, the NFL really is a year round enterprise. All the end of the season does is allow people to fully concentrate on speculation. Obviously, with some money to spend, a high draft pick and an opening at a key coaching spot, there's a lot of room for Vikings' fans to join in the fray.
• Some candidates for the defensive coordinator position have finally emerged, and it appears that there was a reason for the delay—they were waiting to interview Leslie Frazier, the Colt’s special assistant and co-defensive backs coach. Frazier has some defensive coordinator experience, as he lead the Bengal’s defensive during the 2003-2004 season, Marvin Lewis’ first year as head coach. The Bengal’s defense was pretty bad that year, allowing 351.2 yards per game, fifth worst in the NFL. They were mediocre against the pass, allowing 212.6 yards per game and 138.6 rushing yards a game. That mediocrity showed up in the amount of points they allowed as well, as they gave up 24.0 per game. Of course, that team didn’t have anywhere near the talent the Vikings do. He also brings with him experience in the Tampa 2, and has worked with Childress before. Frazier seems to be the favorite and it seems like he has the ability to build on Tomlin’s success.
• The other intriguing candidate (at least to me) is Vikings’ linebacker coach Fred Pagac. Promoting from within has its benefits, such as continuity and knowledge of the players. What makes Pagac such an interesting candidate is the job he did with the linebackers this year. Under his tutelage, Napoleon Harris and E.J. Henderson turned in quality seasons after spending their previous time in purple looking lost. Pagac’s ability to get players to understand their jobs on the field bodes well for his ability to run a defense.
• With Dwight Freeney off the market, it’s looking more and more like the Vikings will be taking a defensive end in the draft. Those hoping for a wide receiver shouldn’t despair, however—this is a good year for receivers, and the Vikings should be able to pick up a talented player like Dwayne Bowe or Anthony Gonzalez with their second round pick.
• The Vikings are apparently persuing Jeff Garcia to be the starting quarterback. I can't say I'm all that excited about him, despite how well he played after Donovan McNabb got hurt. Obviously, I'm a huge backer of the Tarvaris Revolution and would like to see him start, but I'm also getting some crazy Brad Johnson type vibes from Garcia. Garcia played better last season than Johnson did in 2005, but it wasn't all that much better. And like Johnson, he's old (he turns 37 this month) and his play could fall off just as dramatically. Remember, this is the same Jeff Garcia that played so poorly he couldn't even stick in Detroit.
• While he hasn’t had any luck convincing the state to help him build a stadium, Zygi did make a smart decision earlier this week. I think he understood that now was not the best time to raise ticket prices, at least if he wanted to insure the Vikings had all of their home games televised.
• Some candidates for the defensive coordinator position have finally emerged, and it appears that there was a reason for the delay—they were waiting to interview Leslie Frazier, the Colt’s special assistant and co-defensive backs coach. Frazier has some defensive coordinator experience, as he lead the Bengal’s defensive during the 2003-2004 season, Marvin Lewis’ first year as head coach. The Bengal’s defense was pretty bad that year, allowing 351.2 yards per game, fifth worst in the NFL. They were mediocre against the pass, allowing 212.6 yards per game and 138.6 rushing yards a game. That mediocrity showed up in the amount of points they allowed as well, as they gave up 24.0 per game. Of course, that team didn’t have anywhere near the talent the Vikings do. He also brings with him experience in the Tampa 2, and has worked with Childress before. Frazier seems to be the favorite and it seems like he has the ability to build on Tomlin’s success.
• The other intriguing candidate (at least to me) is Vikings’ linebacker coach Fred Pagac. Promoting from within has its benefits, such as continuity and knowledge of the players. What makes Pagac such an interesting candidate is the job he did with the linebackers this year. Under his tutelage, Napoleon Harris and E.J. Henderson turned in quality seasons after spending their previous time in purple looking lost. Pagac’s ability to get players to understand their jobs on the field bodes well for his ability to run a defense.
• With Dwight Freeney off the market, it’s looking more and more like the Vikings will be taking a defensive end in the draft. Those hoping for a wide receiver shouldn’t despair, however—this is a good year for receivers, and the Vikings should be able to pick up a talented player like Dwayne Bowe or Anthony Gonzalez with their second round pick.
• The Vikings are apparently persuing Jeff Garcia to be the starting quarterback. I can't say I'm all that excited about him, despite how well he played after Donovan McNabb got hurt. Obviously, I'm a huge backer of the Tarvaris Revolution and would like to see him start, but I'm also getting some crazy Brad Johnson type vibes from Garcia. Garcia played better last season than Johnson did in 2005, but it wasn't all that much better. And like Johnson, he's old (he turns 37 this month) and his play could fall off just as dramatically. Remember, this is the same Jeff Garcia that played so poorly he couldn't even stick in Detroit.
• While he hasn’t had any luck convincing the state to help him build a stadium, Zygi did make a smart decision earlier this week. I think he understood that now was not the best time to raise ticket prices, at least if he wanted to insure the Vikings had all of their home games televised.
Tuesday, February 06, 2007
A Look at the Offense--the "Wide Recievers"
Everyone knows that the Vikings’ receivers were bad this year. I didn’t realize how bad they were, however, until I looked at their value as measured by DPAR. I’ll put it this way--the thesaurus does not have enough synonyms for “awful” for me to properly write this article.
Lead by a strong effort by Travis Taylor (8.6 DPAR), the Vikings receivers added a combined 7.5 DPAR to the team this year, or roughly half the value contributed to the Steelers by Nate Washington, one of thirty three (THIRTY THREE!!) wide outs to contribute more than double the value of the Vikings’ entire wide receiving corp.
While no one was predicting Pro Bowls for the Purple’s receivers before the season, few expected them to be as awful as they actually were. Taylor, Marcus Robinson and Troy Williamson’s putrid performance in 2006 was a major drop off from their 2005 totals:
Travis Taylor
Marcus Robinson
Troy Williamson
As the above tables show, all three receivers performed significantly worse than in 2005, with Taylor being the lone exception. That can likely be explained by the huge increase in Taylor’s catch percentage and the likely reason for it. Catch percentage “represents the percentage of passes to this receiver completed” and refers only to complete v. incomplete passes. Drops are not taken into account. Taylor’s double digit increase is most likely due to the change in the offense. Childress’s passing game and Brad Johnson’s weak arm increased the emphasis on short passes, playing to Taylor’s strengths and making him more of a focal point in the passing game.
I could probably go on and on about how pathetic the Vikings wide receivers were this year, but I think this will probably sum it up the best. Travis Taylor was the most valuable wide out for the Vikings this year. His most productive year was 2002, when he posted a 12.3 DPAR, good enough for 35th overall, a position he equaled in 2005. To put that into perspective, in 2006, Pittsburgh, New Orleans and Arizona each had three receivers that ranked higher than 35th in DPAR, eight other teams had two receivers and nine more had one. Twenty teams had better wide receivers than the best year of the Vikings’ most productive wide out. At his most productive, Taylor would only be the second most valuable receiver on nine teams, the third on eight teams and the fourth on three teams. And he wasn’t even at his best in 2006.
[A look at the Fullbacks is coming tomorrow, and if you've missed any of the other positions, the links are below]
Tight Ends
Quarterbacks
Running Backs
Offensive Line
Defense
Lead by a strong effort by Travis Taylor (8.6 DPAR), the Vikings receivers added a combined 7.5 DPAR to the team this year, or roughly half the value contributed to the Steelers by Nate Washington, one of thirty three (THIRTY THREE!!) wide outs to contribute more than double the value of the Vikings’ entire wide receiving corp.
While no one was predicting Pro Bowls for the Purple’s receivers before the season, few expected them to be as awful as they actually were. Taylor, Marcus Robinson and Troy Williamson’s putrid performance in 2006 was a major drop off from their 2005 totals:
Travis Taylor
| DPAR | Rank | DVOA | Rank | Catch % | |
| 2005 | 11.1 | 35 | 4.2% | 42 | 56% |
| 2006 | 8.6 | 51 | .6% | 46 | 65% |
Marcus Robinson
| DPAR | Rank | DVOA | Rank | Catch % | |
| 2005 | 12.0 | 31 | 17.4% | 14 | 54% |
| 2006 | -0.2 | 69 | -15.5% | 69 | 50% |
Troy Williamson
| DPAR | Rank | DVOA | Rank | Catch % | |
| 2005 | 4.4 | 61 | -1.2% | 54 | 46% |
| 2006 | -0.9 | 72 | -16.1% | 70 | 49% |
As the above tables show, all three receivers performed significantly worse than in 2005, with Taylor being the lone exception. That can likely be explained by the huge increase in Taylor’s catch percentage and the likely reason for it. Catch percentage “represents the percentage of passes to this receiver completed” and refers only to complete v. incomplete passes. Drops are not taken into account. Taylor’s double digit increase is most likely due to the change in the offense. Childress’s passing game and Brad Johnson’s weak arm increased the emphasis on short passes, playing to Taylor’s strengths and making him more of a focal point in the passing game.
I could probably go on and on about how pathetic the Vikings wide receivers were this year, but I think this will probably sum it up the best. Travis Taylor was the most valuable wide out for the Vikings this year. His most productive year was 2002, when he posted a 12.3 DPAR, good enough for 35th overall, a position he equaled in 2005. To put that into perspective, in 2006, Pittsburgh, New Orleans and Arizona each had three receivers that ranked higher than 35th in DPAR, eight other teams had two receivers and nine more had one. Twenty teams had better wide receivers than the best year of the Vikings’ most productive wide out. At his most productive, Taylor would only be the second most valuable receiver on nine teams, the third on eight teams and the fourth on three teams. And he wasn’t even at his best in 2006.
[A look at the Fullbacks is coming tomorrow, and if you've missed any of the other positions, the links are below]
Tight Ends
Quarterbacks
Running Backs
Offensive Line
Defense
Tuesday, January 30, 2007
So...Anyone Know Who the Vikings are Hiring?
Apparently, no one has a clue about who the Vikings are going to hire to replace Mike Tomlin. After Eagles' linebacker coach,Steve Spagnuolo (Childress' second choice after Tomlin last year and likely first choice this year) was hired by the Giants the day Tomlin was announced as the Steelers' head coach, all anyone has has been able to do is speculate. Kevin Seifert has three possibilities:
If I were more creative, I'd come up with some type of humorous fourth reason, such as Zygi deciding that he would take over the defense as part of his new hands on approach. Or maybe that the Vikings are in negotiations with Bud Grant to come back, and the lack of press coverage is due to the lack of cell phone coverage where Grant is hunting white tail. Or maybe Zygi is trying to convince a legendary Giants coach to come out of retirement. Then again, that hire would almost guarantee the same outcome as Randy Wittman's.
As you can see, I really have no idea what the Vikings's plans are. No one does. Nor am I able to weigh in on what they should do (sorry folks, but I'm not very knowledgable about random defensive position coaches) until some possible candidates are discussed. And, to be honest, I'd much rather find out about the Vikings' new defensive coordinator when he's hired than have it play out in the press like Tomlin's hiring by the Steelers was. Maybe, in this era of constant rumors and 24 hour coverage, it's refreshing to not be innundated by rumors and speculation. Or maybe, after four years at Georgetown, I'm just used to the secrecy.
• "The first choice of coach Brad Childress -- and possibly the second and
third -- opted for another position.
• Unable to make a quick hire, the Vikings are waiting to interview an
assistant from this year's Super Bowl teams, Chicago and Indianapolis. Both
teams play a version of the Tampa-2 defense Tomlin employed last season in
Minnesota, minimizing the level of disruption that goes along with changing
coordinators.
• The Vikings already have settled on a candidate but have not announced it
for competitive or other reasons."
If I were more creative, I'd come up with some type of humorous fourth reason, such as Zygi deciding that he would take over the defense as part of his new hands on approach. Or maybe that the Vikings are in negotiations with Bud Grant to come back, and the lack of press coverage is due to the lack of cell phone coverage where Grant is hunting white tail. Or maybe Zygi is trying to convince a legendary Giants coach to come out of retirement. Then again, that hire would almost guarantee the same outcome as Randy Wittman's.
As you can see, I really have no idea what the Vikings's plans are. No one does. Nor am I able to weigh in on what they should do (sorry folks, but I'm not very knowledgable about random defensive position coaches) until some possible candidates are discussed. And, to be honest, I'd much rather find out about the Vikings' new defensive coordinator when he's hired than have it play out in the press like Tomlin's hiring by the Steelers was. Maybe, in this era of constant rumors and 24 hour coverage, it's refreshing to not be innundated by rumors and speculation. Or maybe, after four years at Georgetown, I'm just used to the secrecy.
Monday, January 29, 2007
A Look at the Offense: Whither the Tight End
Now, I know this might come as a shock to you, but apparently the Vikings did have a tight end on their roster this year. His name’s Jermaine Wiggins, and you might remember him as the one of the more valuable tight ends last year, as his 11.9 DPAR was the tenth best at the position. That’s what happens when you average 8.2 yards per catch while hauling in 69 passes for a total of 568 yards.
Wiggins is, by all accounts, still a quality tight end. And yet, he almost dropped off the map in 2006. He caught fewer passes (46) for fewer yards (386) this year, dropping from the team’s leader in receptions to the fourth option. The question, of course, is how much of Wiggins’ massive drop in production (he only posted a 1.9 DPAR, good for 29th at the position) was due to Childress’ offense, and how much was because of a decline in the quality of his and Brad Johnson's play?
Now, not having access to Childress’ infamous play card, it’s hard to know where Wiggins fit into the offense. With that caveat, however, it looks as if the drop in Wiggins’ production has as much to do with him as it does Childress. Considering that many of the passing plays were dump offs of some sort, it would seem that a good tight end would have been more involved. And, based on the stats from Childress’ last year with the Eagles, where tight end L.J. Smith lead the team in receptions and finished second in receiving yards, it would stand to reason that the tight end would normally see a healthy amount of passes come their way. And, with Wiggins’ catch rate dropping from 76% in 2005 to 69% this season; it would seem that a large part of the blame can be laid on his shoulders.
Whether or not the Vikings choose to cut bait on their Bostonian tight end, they need to get more production from the position next year. Having a quality receiver at tight end creates mismatches no matter who the defense covers him with, and is also a very effective way to attack the cover 2 defenses that are all the rage these days. Not to mention that both Super Bowl participants have quality tight ends (the Colts have two, actually) and as we saw in the AFC Championship game, having a tight end that can run a good seam route can be the difference between going to Miami and going home.
[A look at the Wide Recievers should be coming tomorrow, and if you've missed any of the other positions, the links are below]
Quarterbacks
Runningbacks
Offensive Line
Defense
Wiggins is, by all accounts, still a quality tight end. And yet, he almost dropped off the map in 2006. He caught fewer passes (46) for fewer yards (386) this year, dropping from the team’s leader in receptions to the fourth option. The question, of course, is how much of Wiggins’ massive drop in production (he only posted a 1.9 DPAR, good for 29th at the position) was due to Childress’ offense, and how much was because of a decline in the quality of his and Brad Johnson's play?
Now, not having access to Childress’ infamous play card, it’s hard to know where Wiggins fit into the offense. With that caveat, however, it looks as if the drop in Wiggins’ production has as much to do with him as it does Childress. Considering that many of the passing plays were dump offs of some sort, it would seem that a good tight end would have been more involved. And, based on the stats from Childress’ last year with the Eagles, where tight end L.J. Smith lead the team in receptions and finished second in receiving yards, it would stand to reason that the tight end would normally see a healthy amount of passes come their way. And, with Wiggins’ catch rate dropping from 76% in 2005 to 69% this season; it would seem that a large part of the blame can be laid on his shoulders.
Whether or not the Vikings choose to cut bait on their Bostonian tight end, they need to get more production from the position next year. Having a quality receiver at tight end creates mismatches no matter who the defense covers him with, and is also a very effective way to attack the cover 2 defenses that are all the rage these days. Not to mention that both Super Bowl participants have quality tight ends (the Colts have two, actually) and as we saw in the AFC Championship game, having a tight end that can run a good seam route can be the difference between going to Miami and going home.
[A look at the Wide Recievers should be coming tomorrow, and if you've missed any of the other positions, the links are below]
Quarterbacks
Runningbacks
Offensive Line
Defense
Monday, January 22, 2007
A Coordinator Moves On
Make no mistake about it--losing Mike Tomlin hurts. Tomlin took an average defense and turned it into a unit that almost carried the Vikings and their stagnant offense to the playoffs. And now that he had a year of experience as a coordinator, the Vikings defense was poised to be special next year (with the right additions).
Instead, the effectiveness of the unit the Vikings were counting on to carry the load next season is suddenly in doubt. Rather than having a talented coordinator with connections to star free agents (see Rice, Simeon), the Vikings have to reconsider the very philosophies their defense is based on. Should they go out and get a defensive coordinator that utilizes the 3-4 to capitalize on their linebacker depth, Pat Williams All Pro play at nose tackle and slide Kevin Williams to defensive end? Do they stick with the Tampa 2, let Napoleon Harris go and concentrate on finding a defensive end that get to the quarterback? Or perhaps they should move towards a scheme based on blitzing and man to man coverage, making a shutdown corner to pair with Antoine Winfield the priority.
It's because of that uncertainty that Tomlin's departure hurts the most. It forces the Vikings' to focus on what type of defense they're going to play rather than what players they need to improve it. And really, there wasn't anything the Vikings could do about it. This isn't like when Scott Linehan left to become the Dolphins' Offensive Coordinator because Red was too cheap to pay him a coordinator's salary. Tomlin was going to become a head coach sooner than later and it's just the Vikings luck that Bill Cower's retirement opened up a great job with an ownership group willing to hire a young, inexperienced minority as a head coach. [I know this probably sounds racist but I wouldn't be surprised if the Rooneys had made it a point to hire a minority if possible, since they were the lead ownership group on the minority interview rule, otherwise known as the Rooney Rule.]
Unlike a lot of other Vikings' fans, I don't believe this ends any chance of success for 2007. While it would have been nice to have Tomlin around next year and in position to take over if Brad Childress and the Vikings failed to improve next year, a suitable replacement can be found that can keep the defense playing at a high level. Zygi Wilf has shown a willingness to pay for top notch coordinators and Brad Childress has already hired one good defensive coordinator. I don't know who the candidates to replace Tomlin are yet, but I know the the Vikings should be able to get a top notch replacement thanks to Zygi's open wallet, Childress' ability to identify quality defensive coaches and the massive amount of talent they have coming back. Hopefully, when they identify the next Mike Tomlin this time, he actually sticks around for more than a year.
Instead, the effectiveness of the unit the Vikings were counting on to carry the load next season is suddenly in doubt. Rather than having a talented coordinator with connections to star free agents (see Rice, Simeon), the Vikings have to reconsider the very philosophies their defense is based on. Should they go out and get a defensive coordinator that utilizes the 3-4 to capitalize on their linebacker depth, Pat Williams All Pro play at nose tackle and slide Kevin Williams to defensive end? Do they stick with the Tampa 2, let Napoleon Harris go and concentrate on finding a defensive end that get to the quarterback? Or perhaps they should move towards a scheme based on blitzing and man to man coverage, making a shutdown corner to pair with Antoine Winfield the priority.
It's because of that uncertainty that Tomlin's departure hurts the most. It forces the Vikings' to focus on what type of defense they're going to play rather than what players they need to improve it. And really, there wasn't anything the Vikings could do about it. This isn't like when Scott Linehan left to become the Dolphins' Offensive Coordinator because Red was too cheap to pay him a coordinator's salary. Tomlin was going to become a head coach sooner than later and it's just the Vikings luck that Bill Cower's retirement opened up a great job with an ownership group willing to hire a young, inexperienced minority as a head coach. [I know this probably sounds racist but I wouldn't be surprised if the Rooneys had made it a point to hire a minority if possible, since they were the lead ownership group on the minority interview rule, otherwise known as the Rooney Rule.]
Unlike a lot of other Vikings' fans, I don't believe this ends any chance of success for 2007. While it would have been nice to have Tomlin around next year and in position to take over if Brad Childress and the Vikings failed to improve next year, a suitable replacement can be found that can keep the defense playing at a high level. Zygi Wilf has shown a willingness to pay for top notch coordinators and Brad Childress has already hired one good defensive coordinator. I don't know who the candidates to replace Tomlin are yet, but I know the the Vikings should be able to get a top notch replacement thanks to Zygi's open wallet, Childress' ability to identify quality defensive coaches and the massive amount of talent they have coming back. Hopefully, when they identify the next Mike Tomlin this time, he actually sticks around for more than a year.
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