Filling the third quarterback position rarely seems all that important. Most of the time, whichever quarterback a team has drafted in the mid to late rounds that year or the year before gets the slot. Usually, any debate about which QB should get the roster spot is largely academic, only mattering to the hard core fans, the players involved in the competition, the coaches, the dreamers and me.
This year, however, things are a little different. In a repeat of 2001, when third stringer Spergon Wynn started two games and played in three, there's a distinct possibility that the Vikings will need to call on their third string quarterback. When you consider that QB#4 is turning 40 years old this year and is playing with a partially torn rotator cuff (which, I'm glad to see, the Vikings are being very careful with) and that Sage Rosenfels has never started more than five games in a season (and thus has never shown the ability to handle more games without getting hurt), it's not unreasonable to want a quarterback that can step in and win games for the Vikings. This isn't 2001--the Vikings expect to make the playoffs this year and they should plan accordingly.
Of course, that would mean keeping Tarvaris around as the 3rd quarterback. While Tarvaris had some of the same issues on Friday as he did last year, he looked very good against the Chiefs second stringers and, apparently, he's starting to recognize the blitz and react accordingly. Is that enough to win him the starting job? Not even close, nor is it enough to win him the back up job, but the Vikings can win games with Tarvaris under center (maybe not playoff games, but regular season games, at least). The problem with keeping Tarvaris around, though, is twofold: first, he's still got supporters in the locker room and secondly, that he's an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season. The first problem probably isn't that much of a problem, assuming, of course, that QB#4 starts to play well. Winning solves a lot of problems, including quarterback controversies (even if they're only minor ones in the locker room).
The second problem is a little more troubling for the Vikings' long term. Tarvaris isn't going to be in Purple next year, whether or not you keep him on the roster this season. One assumes he'll try and get on a roster where he feels he has a chance to start (and let's be honest--there are franchises willing to give him a shot at the starting job), which he doesn't so long as Sage Rosenfels is in Purple. And with QB #4 being a one year solution (please) and Rosenfels only signed through next year (and the Vikings should not be offering him an extension unless he gets a significant amount of time starting this year), cutting Booty would leave the Vikings with one quarterback going into 2010 and no quarterbacks under contract in 2011. Booty is currently signed through 2012, but if you cut him, that really doesn't matter, does it?
And so the Vikings are left with a dilemma: do they make their roster decisions based on their needs this year or long term? Keeping Tarvaris and cutting Booty is the right decision for this year, but for 2010 and 2011, keeping Booty and cutting Tarvaris (or trading him) is the right choice.
Showing posts with label Sage Rosenfels. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sage Rosenfels. Show all posts
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
Get to Know 'Em: Sage Rosenfels
It seems only fitting that as I spent my time yesterday writing about a long shot at quarterback, Pat White, the Vikings were busy getting to the brink of a deal with Houston for Sage Rosenfels. So while I'm happy to hear that the competitor for Tarvaris Jackson isn't going to be someone that Tarvaris will likely beat (I'm looking at you Gus), it just figures that the news of a trade would break right after I hit "Post" and used up what free time I had on Pat White.
Anyway (it's rough being me, isn't it?), as you probably recall, the Vikings' chased Rosenfels before this season. As I wrote then, Rosenfels is a very accurate passer (he completed 66.7% and 64.2% of his passes the last two years) who is one of the better quarterbacks at avoiding sacks:
Another reason that Rosenfels may have been sacked more is that he was more willing to hang in the pocket for a deeper route to come open. His yards per attempt jumped from 6.67 YPA to 7.50YPA. He also completed 4 passes for more than 40 yards, the same as 2007 and 18 passes for more than 20 yards, which was one more than in 2007, despite running 63 fewer pass plays. He can get the ball downfield accurately and is willing to hang in the pocket to do so.
Of course, there's a reason why Rosenfels is available to the Vikings for a fourth round pick--he throws a lot of interceptions. He's thrown 22 in the past two years, which, when you consider he only had 414 pass attempt, is horrible. That's an interception rate of 5.3%, which would have lead the league last year (Frerotte was the actual leader at 5.0%). That interception rate is a big reason why he had fewer DYAR and a lower DVOA last year than Tarvaris Jackson.
His propensity to throw interceptions is the main reason Rosenfels likely isn't the best answer to the Vikings' quaterback situation. But, as I've said before, the time to find the best answer is long past. Cassel is going to be expensive and has big question marks about his ability to play under center without Randy Moss and Wes Welker, and while Garcia is probably a better answer, Childress doesn't seem to like him and he gets hurt too frequently. Rosenfels is an improvement on the "Gus and Tarvaris Traveling Sucking Spectacular" that we saw for most of last year, and that's probably enough. He's a legitimate contender for the starting job (unlike Frerotte), which means that if Tarvaris beats Rosenfels out, he'll have earned it with strong play. And at this point, that's enough for me to be happy about the Purple's quarterback situation.
Anyway (it's rough being me, isn't it?), as you probably recall, the Vikings' chased Rosenfels before this season. As I wrote then, Rosenfels is a very accurate passer (he completed 66.7% and 64.2% of his passes the last two years) who is one of the better quarterbacks at avoiding sacks:
"Another thing Rosenfels has going for himself is that he rarely gets sacked. He was only dropped once every 41 times he went back to pass, an astoundingly low rate. Rosenfels has only been sacked 10 times in his entire career and was sacked only once every 39.8 pass attempts. To put that in context, Tarvaris had about as many pass attempts (313), but was sacked 19 times last year, or once every 16.5 dropbacks, which isn't that bad of a sack rate (David Carr's sack rate is once every 9.4 drop backs)."Rosenfels wasn't as succesful at avoiding sacks last year, going down 9 times in 183 drop backs, a rate of once every 20.3 pass plays. His sack rate wasn't helped by an offensive line that dropped from 10th to 16th in Adjusted Sack Rate last year. Of course, the Vikings were 28th in ASR last year, so he will be facing more pressure than in Houston if the Purple don't upgrade their line.
Another reason that Rosenfels may have been sacked more is that he was more willing to hang in the pocket for a deeper route to come open. His yards per attempt jumped from 6.67 YPA to 7.50YPA. He also completed 4 passes for more than 40 yards, the same as 2007 and 18 passes for more than 20 yards, which was one more than in 2007, despite running 63 fewer pass plays. He can get the ball downfield accurately and is willing to hang in the pocket to do so.
Of course, there's a reason why Rosenfels is available to the Vikings for a fourth round pick--he throws a lot of interceptions. He's thrown 22 in the past two years, which, when you consider he only had 414 pass attempt, is horrible. That's an interception rate of 5.3%, which would have lead the league last year (Frerotte was the actual leader at 5.0%). That interception rate is a big reason why he had fewer DYAR and a lower DVOA last year than Tarvaris Jackson.
His propensity to throw interceptions is the main reason Rosenfels likely isn't the best answer to the Vikings' quaterback situation. But, as I've said before, the time to find the best answer is long past. Cassel is going to be expensive and has big question marks about his ability to play under center without Randy Moss and Wes Welker, and while Garcia is probably a better answer, Childress doesn't seem to like him and he gets hurt too frequently. Rosenfels is an improvement on the "Gus and Tarvaris Traveling Sucking Spectacular" that we saw for most of last year, and that's probably enough. He's a legitimate contender for the starting job (unlike Frerotte), which means that if Tarvaris beats Rosenfels out, he'll have earned it with strong play. And at this point, that's enough for me to be happy about the Purple's quarterback situation.
Thursday, February 28, 2008
Solving Our Problems: Sage Rosenfels
[Solving Our Problems is an ongoing series here at the Ragnarok where I evaluate the Vikings' options going into the offseason. I started by looking at the quarterback options, examining Derek Anderson, Donovan McNabb and possible backups for Tarvaris Jackson. I've tried to figure out who the QB is going to throw to, starting with free agents Bernard Berrian and Donte Stallworth, and taken a detour to look at a safety the Vikings might sign, Madieu Williams. While we're detouring, I figured that it might be worth it to look at another QB the Vikings might end up with, Sage Rosenfels.]
According to Don Banks of SI.com, the Vikings have offered Houston a third round pick for Sage Rosenfels, their backup quarterback. I hope Banks is telling the truth, because Rosenfels would be perfect as the Vikings backup QB. He's experienced, is happy as a backup and has shown over the last two years that he's good enough to step up and help the Purple win if he's needed, whether because Tarvaris got hurt (which happened all too often last year) or because Tarvaris is struggling (which also happened all too often).
Last year, Rosenfels started 4 games for the Texans due to injuries to Matt Schaub, and played in 5 others. In those 9 games, he completed 64% of his 246 passes for 1647 yards and 15 touchdowns, which was good for a 84.8 QB Rating. While he did throw 13 interceptions, he still amassed 39.3 DPAR, which was the 18th highest total in the NFL. He was also the 9th most valuable QB in the NFL on a per play basis, with a DVOA of 21.7%.
And those numbers weren't that much better than his statistics from 2006 either. He didn't get a lot of playing time In the 4 games he played in that year, but he was successful when he was on the field, completing 69% of his 39 for 268 yards and 3 touchdowns, while only throwing 1 pick. His advanced statistics weren't too shabby either, as he had a 9.6 DPAR and a 39.8% DVOA.
Another thing Rosenfels has going for himself is that he rarely gets sacked. He was only dropped once every 41 times he went back to pass, an astoundingly low rate. Rosenfels has only been sacked 10 times in his entire career and was sacked only once every 39.8 pass attempts. To put that in context, Tarvaris had about as many pass attempts (313), but was sacked 19 times last year, or once every 16.5 dropbacks, which isn't that bad of a sack rate (David Carr's sack rate is once every 9.4 drop backs).
Even if he cost the Vikings a third round pick, Rosenfels would be a much better backup than almost all of the other options that have been discussed. Trent Green and Steve McNair are old and injury prone, Cleo Lemon and Josh McCown have never demonstrated competence, and Chad Pennington, Quinn Gray and Chris Simms all want to be starters (not to mention Pennington and Simms injury issues). A third round pick has value (the last three years, Vikings drafted Marcus McCauley and Dustin Fox in the third round, and used their pick in 2006 to move up in the second round) but not as much as value as having a legitimate backup for an inexperienced starter at the most important position on the field. The Vikings made that mistake last year and it cost them a playoff spot. If they are able to acquire Rosenfels, it'll show that Childress has learned from his mistake, which would be a very good sign. It would also mean that they are set at the quarterback position going into the season, something they haven't been able to say since before the 2005 season.
According to Don Banks of SI.com, the Vikings have offered Houston a third round pick for Sage Rosenfels, their backup quarterback. I hope Banks is telling the truth, because Rosenfels would be perfect as the Vikings backup QB. He's experienced, is happy as a backup and has shown over the last two years that he's good enough to step up and help the Purple win if he's needed, whether because Tarvaris got hurt (which happened all too often last year) or because Tarvaris is struggling (which also happened all too often).
Last year, Rosenfels started 4 games for the Texans due to injuries to Matt Schaub, and played in 5 others. In those 9 games, he completed 64% of his 246 passes for 1647 yards and 15 touchdowns, which was good for a 84.8 QB Rating. While he did throw 13 interceptions, he still amassed 39.3 DPAR, which was the 18th highest total in the NFL. He was also the 9th most valuable QB in the NFL on a per play basis, with a DVOA of 21.7%.
And those numbers weren't that much better than his statistics from 2006 either. He didn't get a lot of playing time In the 4 games he played in that year, but he was successful when he was on the field, completing 69% of his 39 for 268 yards and 3 touchdowns, while only throwing 1 pick. His advanced statistics weren't too shabby either, as he had a 9.6 DPAR and a 39.8% DVOA.
Another thing Rosenfels has going for himself is that he rarely gets sacked. He was only dropped once every 41 times he went back to pass, an astoundingly low rate. Rosenfels has only been sacked 10 times in his entire career and was sacked only once every 39.8 pass attempts. To put that in context, Tarvaris had about as many pass attempts (313), but was sacked 19 times last year, or once every 16.5 dropbacks, which isn't that bad of a sack rate (David Carr's sack rate is once every 9.4 drop backs).
Even if he cost the Vikings a third round pick, Rosenfels would be a much better backup than almost all of the other options that have been discussed. Trent Green and Steve McNair are old and injury prone, Cleo Lemon and Josh McCown have never demonstrated competence, and Chad Pennington, Quinn Gray and Chris Simms all want to be starters (not to mention Pennington and Simms injury issues). A third round pick has value (the last three years, Vikings drafted Marcus McCauley and Dustin Fox in the third round, and used their pick in 2006 to move up in the second round) but not as much as value as having a legitimate backup for an inexperienced starter at the most important position on the field. The Vikings made that mistake last year and it cost them a playoff spot. If they are able to acquire Rosenfels, it'll show that Childress has learned from his mistake, which would be a very good sign. It would also mean that they are set at the quarterback position going into the season, something they haven't been able to say since before the 2005 season.
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