Yesterday, I mentioned that the Vikings only have an 11.4% chance of making the playoffs after losing their first two games. They've dug themselves a hole that only 27 teams have pulled themselves out of since the advent of the 16 game schedule, and only three teams have gotten out of an 0-2 hole in the last five years. So what did last year's Super Bowl Champions, the 2006 Chiefs and the 2003 Eagles all have in common?
They all won their next two games to get back to .500. It didn't hurt that only the Giants had to beat a team that made the playoffs that year in order to win two straight, but none of the three teams had an easy next two games, as all but the Chiefs faced teams that finished around .500.
The Giants ripped off six straight wins after their 0-2 start, but the Chiefs and Eagles both lost their fifth game to fall to 2-3 and still rebounded. Despite that loss, the Eagles still managed to win 12 games in 2003, while the Chiefs ended up at an uninspiring 9-7.
Which means that Sunday's game against the Panthers and the following game against the Saints are pretty much must wins. A loss against the Panthers would drop the Vikings' playoffs odds to 3.4% and pretty much end any hope of the Purple making the playoffs.
I'm not the only one that's thinking like this either--the Pioneer Press has a comparison of the Vikings and last year's Giants.
Links:
The loss of Bryant McKinnie for the first four games has emphasized the ideas in Michael Lewis' "The Blind Side". Advanced NFL Stats and Sabermetric Research both have pieces on the underlying idea behind the book--that the Left Tackle is the second most important position on the offense.
Defensive Indifference on Brad Childress' play calling.
Vikings' Now on Tarvaris' Red Zone issues.
Daily Norseman on why the Vikings' won't be trading for Jeff Garcia.
Terrell Owens passed Chris Carter for second on the all time touchdown list on Monday Night. I can't say I'm particular happy to see Carter passed by Owens, even if I don't hate Owens in the way a lot of folks do. What I was really unhappy about was the fact that Owens managed to close 20 points of a 34 point lead I had in fantasy football in the first half of the game. That second half was pure torture after what I thought had been an easy win.
Showing posts with label Bryant McKinnie. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bryant McKinnie. Show all posts
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Wednesday, September 03, 2008
Starting on a Sour Note
Once again, my plans for a big August were interrupted by travel. For some reason, despite being in a far away place for business, by myself, I just never found the time I wanted to preview the season. Of course, part of that was due to the fact that I wasn't able to watch any of the preseason games and the rest due to the fact that the offseason has been one of waiting, rather than one for arguments, once the Vikings finished up their roster selection. I mean, what was there to argue about, aside from the final wide receiver spot?
That being said, the preseason has exposed the current staff's inability to foresee upcoming issues, even when they are staring them in the face. It was an issue last year, when they didn't go out and get a backup for Tarvaris Jackson, despite the fact he was barely a year removed from playing 1-AA football and it is an issue again at quarterback (Do you trust Gus Frerrote? I know I don't, which is not a good sign, what with Tarvaris already suffering his first injury of the year) and now at left tackle, where the Vikings seem to have no problem playing the first quarter of the season with Artis Hicks protecting Tarvaris' blindside and attempting to open up running lanes for Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor on the left side of the line.
I know I don't trust Hicks to protect Tarvaris from right guard, with the help of Matt Birk and Ryan Cook (and neither did the Vikings, who benched him after four games last year), let alone on an island against some of the top defensive ends in the NFL. I could list them here, but I'm sure we'll all get to hear their names often enough, usually followed by some riff on the phrase "sacks Tarvaris Jackson". Luckily, the Vikings saw the writing on the wall and gave Hicks a lot of reps at left tackle with the first unit.
What Artis Hicks might bring, however, is the ability to continue running the ball to the left side. Since signing Steve Hutchinson to pair with McKinnie, the Vikings have been dominate running the ball to the left side (not including the issues created by McKinnie's injuries in 2007). Last year, the Purple averaged 4.68 yards on runs around left end and 4.21 yards to left tackle, compared with 3.49 yards per carry around right end and 4.09 yards on runs to right tackle (these numbers are from this year's Pro Football Prospectus). That was a huge drop from the year before, when Artis Hicks started 14 games at right guard, where the Vikings averaged 5.15 yards around right end and 4.54 yards to right tackle. I don't know how much of that success can really be attributed to Hicks, but it's a reason to be hopeful that McKinnie's suspension won't completely derail the running game like it will the passing game.
Hick's run blocking might be enough to keep the Vikings' offense moving, but in the end, the left tackle's main job is keeping his quarterback from getting killed. So what happens if (when, more likely) Tarvaris gets lit up and knocked out after yet another "Look Out" block by Hicks? Let's put it this way--Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor will be facing 9 men in the box again, despite the signing of Bernard Berrian (I'm still pretending his toe injury is no big deal--let me have something, please) and the likely improvement by Sidney Rice. So yeah, lots of excitement heading into the opener on Monday.
That being said, the preseason has exposed the current staff's inability to foresee upcoming issues, even when they are staring them in the face. It was an issue last year, when they didn't go out and get a backup for Tarvaris Jackson, despite the fact he was barely a year removed from playing 1-AA football and it is an issue again at quarterback (Do you trust Gus Frerrote? I know I don't, which is not a good sign, what with Tarvaris already suffering his first injury of the year) and now at left tackle, where the Vikings seem to have no problem playing the first quarter of the season with Artis Hicks protecting Tarvaris' blindside and attempting to open up running lanes for Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor on the left side of the line.
I know I don't trust Hicks to protect Tarvaris from right guard, with the help of Matt Birk and Ryan Cook (and neither did the Vikings, who benched him after four games last year), let alone on an island against some of the top defensive ends in the NFL. I could list them here, but I'm sure we'll all get to hear their names often enough, usually followed by some riff on the phrase "sacks Tarvaris Jackson". Luckily, the Vikings saw the writing on the wall and gave Hicks a lot of reps at left tackle with the first unit.
What Artis Hicks might bring, however, is the ability to continue running the ball to the left side. Since signing Steve Hutchinson to pair with McKinnie, the Vikings have been dominate running the ball to the left side (not including the issues created by McKinnie's injuries in 2007). Last year, the Purple averaged 4.68 yards on runs around left end and 4.21 yards to left tackle, compared with 3.49 yards per carry around right end and 4.09 yards on runs to right tackle (these numbers are from this year's Pro Football Prospectus). That was a huge drop from the year before, when Artis Hicks started 14 games at right guard, where the Vikings averaged 5.15 yards around right end and 4.54 yards to right tackle. I don't know how much of that success can really be attributed to Hicks, but it's a reason to be hopeful that McKinnie's suspension won't completely derail the running game like it will the passing game.
Hick's run blocking might be enough to keep the Vikings' offense moving, but in the end, the left tackle's main job is keeping his quarterback from getting killed. So what happens if (when, more likely) Tarvaris gets lit up and knocked out after yet another "Look Out" block by Hicks? Let's put it this way--Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor will be facing 9 men in the box again, despite the signing of Bernard Berrian (I'm still pretending his toe injury is no big deal--let me have something, please) and the likely improvement by Sidney Rice. So yeah, lots of excitement heading into the opener on Monday.
Monday, June 16, 2008
Maybe McKinnie's Suspension Won't Hurt That Bad?
Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders wrote an interesting article for ESPN.com about the retirement of Jonathan Ogden that might provide some comfort for Vikings' fans worried about the almost inevitable suspension of Bryant McKinnie. In the article, he argues that the loss of a Hall of Fame caliber lineman doesn't hurt a team as much as would be expected by comparing the statistics from 45 teams from before and after losing a top linemen.
Those 45 teams barely experienced a drop in their adjusted line yards and their adjusted sack rate, the stats that should be most effected by the loss of a top lineman. Now, the Vikings won't be losing a Hall of Fame lineman, but they will be losing a good one, though it won't be permanent, like the lineman lost by the teams looked at in the article.
One of the reasons for teams ability to weather losses that was advanced in the comment section is that teams were able to plan to replace lineman lost to free agency or retirement (like what the Vikings are doing this year at the center position). While that idea has some validity (which doesn't bode well for the Purple, as they haven't really done anything extra to prepare for McKinnie sitting out), those numbers include unexpected losses, such as Seahawks losing Steve Hutchinson to free agency, or the Vikings' losing Korey Stringer after he passed away in training camp, which would seem to dispel that theory (and bodes well for the Vikings).
The article itself does not advance a theory as to why teams are able to weather the loss of an elite lineman, expert for some vague mention of continuity being important. If that's true, that's probably good, since Artis Hicks, his presumed replacement, has been on the team for two years, and should have a decent comfort level with Steve Hutchinson and the rest of the linemen. Will he be as good as McKinnie? Probably not. Will he be able to step in and provide a decent replacement for the 2/4/8 games that McKinnie has to set out? I really hope so.
Those 45 teams barely experienced a drop in their adjusted line yards and their adjusted sack rate, the stats that should be most effected by the loss of a top lineman. Now, the Vikings won't be losing a Hall of Fame lineman, but they will be losing a good one, though it won't be permanent, like the lineman lost by the teams looked at in the article.
One of the reasons for teams ability to weather losses that was advanced in the comment section is that teams were able to plan to replace lineman lost to free agency or retirement (like what the Vikings are doing this year at the center position). While that idea has some validity (which doesn't bode well for the Purple, as they haven't really done anything extra to prepare for McKinnie sitting out), those numbers include unexpected losses, such as Seahawks losing Steve Hutchinson to free agency, or the Vikings' losing Korey Stringer after he passed away in training camp, which would seem to dispel that theory (and bodes well for the Vikings).
The article itself does not advance a theory as to why teams are able to weather the loss of an elite lineman, expert for some vague mention of continuity being important. If that's true, that's probably good, since Artis Hicks, his presumed replacement, has been on the team for two years, and should have a decent comfort level with Steve Hutchinson and the rest of the linemen. Will he be as good as McKinnie? Probably not. Will he be able to step in and provide a decent replacement for the 2/4/8 games that McKinnie has to set out? I really hope so.
Tuesday, June 03, 2008
Killing Time: Please Pass on Brook Lopez
Pass On Lopez Please
When the T-Wolves ended up with the third pick, after a cursory glance at the mock drafts, I thought that Brook Lopez was the best player available. I was wrong. The Orlando Draft Camp is going on now, and while Lopez isn't playing, he did get measured and ran some drills. It did not go well.
Luckily for Lopez, he's a legit seven feet tall in shoes. (Which is good, because he'll likely be playing in shoes. Then again, when an inch can make a difference in high you're drafted, it makes sense to measure the players without shoes, so you can see who's wreaking their joints by wearing lifts like Kevin Love). Of course, the worst thing that can happen for a seven footer is to be labeled a stiff, a label that Lopez might have earned by turning in the worst time in the lane agility drill and the 3/4 court sprint (what's really sad is that Brian Butch participated in the drills). His vertical wasn't all that great either, at only 30.5 inches. That, combined with the fact that he never shot higher than 50% in a season (which, for a post player, is really, really bad-for comparison Spencer Tollackson shot over 50% his final three years, and Roy Hibbert shot over 59% his final three years) and the fact that he wasn't the best rebounder (his rebounding percentages barely cracked the top 200 last year) says that he's more likely to flop than be a star.
More Basketball
Only Tangentially Related to Football
When the T-Wolves ended up with the third pick, after a cursory glance at the mock drafts, I thought that Brook Lopez was the best player available. I was wrong. The Orlando Draft Camp is going on now, and while Lopez isn't playing, he did get measured and ran some drills. It did not go well.
Luckily for Lopez, he's a legit seven feet tall in shoes. (Which is good, because he'll likely be playing in shoes. Then again, when an inch can make a difference in high you're drafted, it makes sense to measure the players without shoes, so you can see who's wreaking their joints by wearing lifts like Kevin Love). Of course, the worst thing that can happen for a seven footer is to be labeled a stiff, a label that Lopez might have earned by turning in the worst time in the lane agility drill and the 3/4 court sprint (what's really sad is that Brian Butch participated in the drills). His vertical wasn't all that great either, at only 30.5 inches. That, combined with the fact that he never shot higher than 50% in a season (which, for a post player, is really, really bad-for comparison Spencer Tollackson shot over 50% his final three years, and Roy Hibbert shot over 59% his final three years) and the fact that he wasn't the best rebounder (his rebounding percentages barely cracked the top 200 last year) says that he's more likely to flop than be a star.
More Basketball
- Flip Saunders was let go by the Pistons today. He had a reputation, deservedly so, I think, of not knowing how to coach in the playoffs. The thing is, he managed to make the conference finals four times (once with the Wolves, and three times with the Pistons). That's pretty good. And while he never made it to the Finals, he was only favored to once, against the LeBrons last year, and even then, his team didn't have the best player on the court, which, as they found out when LeBron took over the series, makes things a lot harder. Then again, a better coach probably would have figured out a way to defend the Cavs (see Popovich, Greg).
- The Wolves have a lot more going on this offseason aside from deciding on who to select with the third pick and the folks over at the TWolves Blog discussed what they'd do if they were in charge. And yes, I think they're more qualified than Kevin McHale.
Only Tangentially Related to Football
- Bryant McKinnie's lawyer is working on getting him into a diversion program so the charges against him are dismissed. Either way, it looks like we'll see Artis Hicks start some games at left tackle.
- Michael Lombardi of SI.com has a blueprint for teams to follow in case 2010 actually ends up being a capless year.
- People in Chicago apparently ate some bad Polish sausage or something...
Wednesday, May 28, 2008
Killing Time-It's Still May
May
You know it’s May if you’re unhappy with a column by Peter King because it doesn’t definitively tell you if Tarvaris Jackson is the answer at quarterback. King’s a big name, has great access, rambles about stuff he shouldn’t talk about or doesn’t understand and is a massive suck up, but no matter what you think about him, it’s unreasonable to be angry about the fact that he can’t satisfy your questions about Tarvaris at quarterback next season.
2005 Draft
Marcus Johnson. That’s it. He’s the only one left from the Vikings’ 2005 draft now that the Purple have traded Erasmus James for a conditional seventh rounder. Ugh. Honestly, that offseason has to rank up there as one of the worst offseasons of all time. Not only did the Vikings’ manage to turn two first round picks, one in the top ten and one in the top twenty, into nothing after three seasons, they also managed to turn Randy Moss, the only wide receiver that can seriously be compared with Jerry Rice, into Jaymar Johnson in the same time period. (Ok. Now, obviously Rice is better than Moss, but, if you have to debate who the best wide receiver of all time is, who else would you match up against Rice? Is there anyone else you could throw out there to challenge Rice’s spot without getting laughed at?) Now, I have nothing against Johnson (Actually, I’m hoping he’ll be good enough to be the punt returner this year), but seriously, Jaymar Johnson for Randy Freaking Moss? To be fair, the Purple got one good season out of Napolean Harris out of the deal as well, but as of right now, after trading away the only receiver that’s in the same conversation as Jerry Rice, a player that was so much better than all of the Vikings’ receivers last year that he would have been triple covered every play if he’d been in Purple, (defenses would have employed the rarely used 8-3 defense against the Vikings—8 in the box to stop Peterson and Taylor, 3 on Moss and leave everybody else open) they have only Jaymar Johnson to show for it. The incompetence the Vikings showed that offseason is mind boggling. You almost have to try to be that bad. Or be Matt Millen.
Backing Up McKinnie
Of course, if you want to be optimistic, one of the bright spots of the 2005 draft is that it gave the Vikings’ their back up left tackle, whom they had to use their first day of OTA’s (by the way—I hate this acronym and I hate the name “Offseason Training Activites”. The NFL needs to either come up with a better name or hire someone to do it for them, because OTAs is so clunky that it’s painful to type). The first four games on the Vikings’ schedule don’t look very easy right now, though they may be a little easier for the left tackle, who won't have to face a team in the top half of the league in adjusted sack rate last year until the fourth game against Tennessee. If McKinnie is out for four games (and one would think he’ll get hit with a suspension for his latest run in), things could still get really ugly fast if his backup can’t handle the job though, as the Packers, Colts and Panthers all have really talented players at defensive end. Luckily the Vikings don’t have to rely on some unsigned free agent that nobody else wanted, because they drafted Johnson in the 2nd round in 2005. So they’ve got that going for them, which is nice.
Joe Posnanski
If you don’t know who Joe Posnanski is, well, that’s a problem for you. I’ve been traveling a lot by bus lately, which means that I have a lot of time to kill. I’ve done so by reading Posnanski’s work, both The Soul of Baseball and his blog. And when I say his blog, I mean almost all of it, starting with his entries from last October. At my heart I’m a reader, not a writer (if that makes any sense, and if it doesn’t, well, that’s because I’m a reader, not a writer) and when I get something worth reading, I keep going until I’ve run out of material. I took down the 7th Harry Potter book in a night. The various Prospectuses rarely last more than a week for me (though I do tend to reread them). I just don’t stop reading until I’m done. And only one other blogger has ever reached the “I want to read everything they’ve ever wrote including stuff that's really old and not even remotely topical anymore” level for me and that was Bat-Girl. His blog is that good and his book is that good. So go read it. And stop judging me—I am at peace with how cool I am (well, technically, uncool, but you know what I meant).
You know it’s May if you’re unhappy with a column by Peter King because it doesn’t definitively tell you if Tarvaris Jackson is the answer at quarterback. King’s a big name, has great access, rambles about stuff he shouldn’t talk about or doesn’t understand and is a massive suck up, but no matter what you think about him, it’s unreasonable to be angry about the fact that he can’t satisfy your questions about Tarvaris at quarterback next season.
2005 Draft
Marcus Johnson. That’s it. He’s the only one left from the Vikings’ 2005 draft now that the Purple have traded Erasmus James for a conditional seventh rounder. Ugh. Honestly, that offseason has to rank up there as one of the worst offseasons of all time. Not only did the Vikings’ manage to turn two first round picks, one in the top ten and one in the top twenty, into nothing after three seasons, they also managed to turn Randy Moss, the only wide receiver that can seriously be compared with Jerry Rice, into Jaymar Johnson in the same time period. (Ok. Now, obviously Rice is better than Moss, but, if you have to debate who the best wide receiver of all time is, who else would you match up against Rice? Is there anyone else you could throw out there to challenge Rice’s spot without getting laughed at?) Now, I have nothing against Johnson (Actually, I’m hoping he’ll be good enough to be the punt returner this year), but seriously, Jaymar Johnson for Randy Freaking Moss? To be fair, the Purple got one good season out of Napolean Harris out of the deal as well, but as of right now, after trading away the only receiver that’s in the same conversation as Jerry Rice, a player that was so much better than all of the Vikings’ receivers last year that he would have been triple covered every play if he’d been in Purple, (defenses would have employed the rarely used 8-3 defense against the Vikings—8 in the box to stop Peterson and Taylor, 3 on Moss and leave everybody else open) they have only Jaymar Johnson to show for it. The incompetence the Vikings showed that offseason is mind boggling. You almost have to try to be that bad. Or be Matt Millen.
Backing Up McKinnie
Of course, if you want to be optimistic, one of the bright spots of the 2005 draft is that it gave the Vikings’ their back up left tackle, whom they had to use their first day of OTA’s (by the way—I hate this acronym and I hate the name “Offseason Training Activites”. The NFL needs to either come up with a better name or hire someone to do it for them, because OTAs is so clunky that it’s painful to type). The first four games on the Vikings’ schedule don’t look very easy right now, though they may be a little easier for the left tackle, who won't have to face a team in the top half of the league in adjusted sack rate last year until the fourth game against Tennessee. If McKinnie is out for four games (and one would think he’ll get hit with a suspension for his latest run in), things could still get really ugly fast if his backup can’t handle the job though, as the Packers, Colts and Panthers all have really talented players at defensive end. Luckily the Vikings don’t have to rely on some unsigned free agent that nobody else wanted, because they drafted Johnson in the 2nd round in 2005. So they’ve got that going for them, which is nice.
Joe Posnanski
If you don’t know who Joe Posnanski is, well, that’s a problem for you. I’ve been traveling a lot by bus lately, which means that I have a lot of time to kill. I’ve done so by reading Posnanski’s work, both The Soul of Baseball and his blog. And when I say his blog, I mean almost all of it, starting with his entries from last October. At my heart I’m a reader, not a writer (if that makes any sense, and if it doesn’t, well, that’s because I’m a reader, not a writer) and when I get something worth reading, I keep going until I’ve run out of material. I took down the 7th Harry Potter book in a night. The various Prospectuses rarely last more than a week for me (though I do tend to reread them). I just don’t stop reading until I’m done. And only one other blogger has ever reached the “I want to read everything they’ve ever wrote including stuff that's really old and not even remotely topical anymore” level for me and that was Bat-Girl. His blog is that good and his book is that good. So go read it. And stop judging me—I am at peace with how cool I am (well, technically, uncool, but you know what I meant).
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Solving Our Problems: Chris Williams
[With Free Agency all but over, it's time to take a look at who the Vikings might select in the first round with the #17 pick. Today, we're previewing Chris Williams, an offensive tackle from Vanderbilt. Previously, I previewed Derrick Harvey, a defensive end from Florida.]
One of the less talked about problems facing the Vikings this season is their offensive line, specifically the tackle and center positions. At left tackle, Bryant McKinnie is the on field stalwart, big, talented and willing to play hurt.Off the field, he’s just violated the NFL’s conduct policy for the second time and will almost certainly be forced to miss four or more games because of it. At right tackle, Ryan Cook has been inconsistent at best in his two seasons. He’s also the backup left tackle (a position he’ll likely play during McKinnie’s suspension) and the backup center, which was the position he was drafted to play and one that he may need to play, as Matt Birk, like all people, continues to age. If Birk were to be injured,(or pout and holdout) especially during McKinnie’s suspension, it would force Marcus Johnson and Chase Johnson (I don't know who he is either) into the lineup, and guarantee that Tarvaris Jackson would get to know the NFL North’s pass rushers intimately, the last thing you would want a young, inexperienced quarterback with a history of injury problems to do.
The Vikings chose not to pursue any linemen in free agency, which means that, unless they choose to trade McKinnie for another lineman (not likely), they are going to have to address their line issues via the draft, which I expect them to do. I would be surprised to see the Purple take less than two offensive linemen with their 9 picks, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them take a replacement for McKinnie in the first round, allowing them to trade their trouble making left tackle. Today I’m going to take a look at Chris Williams, a senior All SEC left tackle from Vanderbilt.
Williams is a tall guy, measuring in at 6’6”, but he doesn’t have the bulk you’d expect from someone that tall, weighing in at “only” 317 pounds. That didn’t affect his ability to contain some of the best pass rushers in college football, however, as he allowed only two sacks in his last two years at Vanderbilt, one in the first game of his junior year and one in his senior year. He did so by using quick footwork, a tremendous reach and good body control to contain and control the pass rusher off the edge. He also has tremendous football instincts, quickly recognizing stunts and twists, and he communicates well with his guard.
His communication skills also show up as leadership abilities, as his coaches at Vanderbilt counted on him as a mentor to younger players and as the leader of the offensive line. He responded well 0to these extra responsibilities, and continued to put in extra work in the film room and practice to improve. He has the work ethic that you want out of your first round pick, and doesn’t need the continual monitoring that other players do.
Like all prospects, there are some question marks. While there are no doubts about his work ethic, there are doubts about his intensity and killer instinct. He wasn’t the mauler that you’d expect someone his size to be. He relied mainly on technique, rather than raw strength, to contain pass rushers. His run blocking isn’t great either, despite the fact that Vanderbilt liked to run behind him. He struggles with drive blocking because of his height, and doesn’t always get low enough. He isn’t as strong as you’d want him to be either, something that manifests in his run blocking and his use of finesse pass blocking techniques.
The big question with Williams is his intensity. He can and should get stronger in an NFL workout plan, which he can be counted on to follow through with. He has almost everything else you’d want in a left tackle. Whether that will translate into a dominant left tackle will depend a lot on whether he plays aggressively, supplementing his technique with strength and a willingness to attack the rusher, rather than let the rusher come to him. If he does that, he’d be a great addition to the Vikings line, and would allow the Purple to shop Bryant Mckinnie. If he can’t, he should still be good, but he won’t be the reliable pass blocker a good team needs at left tackle.
Thursday, March 20, 2008
Wrapping Up the Week
The Vikings were busy the last week (as was I), but in this period between the first flurry of free agent signings and the Draft, nothing too exciting happens. So while the Purple was signing Ellis Wyms, Derrick Pope and Dallas Sartz, and resigning Robert Ferguson, I was staying late at work to meet some critical deadlines.
As for the signings, they all helped address areas that the Vikings needed to address. Wyms adds depth at defensive end as well as a veteran presence at the position. He's not a sack machine, having only gotten to the QB 16.5 times in his seven year career, but he's more than good enough to be in the end of the rotation, and he won't kill you if you have to play him due to injuries.
The signing of Pope and Sartz adds depth at linebacker and special teams, as Pope will be able to compete with Heath Farwell for the primary backup role, and he'll fit in nicely on the coverage teams, an area that can always be improved when you play in a division that includes Koren Robinson and Devin Hester. Sartz will be competing with the healed Rufus Alexander for the last LB spot and a spot on special teams, positions that you want to have as mich competition for as possible.
As for Ferguson, he showed last year that he can have value as a fourth or fifth reciever, catching 32 passes for 392 yards and a touchdown. He's also one of the league's best downfield blockers, a skill that the Vikings just might be ab le to find a use for.
In slightly worse news, Bryant McKinnie pleaded "Not Guilty" to a list of charges in Miami, reminding me that I should add all of the linemen that might be drafted in late first round to my to my list of prospects to preview.
If the Vikings do end up using their first round pick on an offensive lineman, they can still upgrade at defensive end, as, word out of Carolina is that that Julius Peppers, quite possibly the most talented defensive end in the NFL, is available for the right price. He won't be cheap though, as the Panthers would likely ask for a 1st and 3rd round pick for him. Is he worth it? Well, that depends a lot on what your opinion of the Vikings is. If you believe that they have a legitimate chance of going to the Super Bowl in the next two years, then Peppers is more than worth it, as he would immediately give the Purple a defensive line that only the Giants could challenge. If, however, you look at the uncertainty at important offensive positions like Left Tackle and Quarterback and think its more likely that they're upside is "playoff team" at best, then those picks can be used to improve a roster that is still recovering from the horrendous 2004 and 2005 drafts. More than anything though, I'd be wary of Peppers production dropoff last year, where he only notched 2.5 sacks in 14 games (his season was cut short by a knee sprain). That kind of precipitous drop off may just be because of a bad season, or it may signal the end of the his reign as the NFL's best defensive end. And make no mistake about it--whichever team gets Peppers will be giving up the draft picks that the NFL's best defensive end would cost.
Another option for the Vikings is to draft a defensive end in the second, third or fourth round, similar to what they did last year when they drafted Brian Robison. If you haven't seen it yet, an anonymous commenter left a scouting report on Eastern Michigan's Jason Jones, who'll be a player the Vikings are looking at on the second day:
As for the signings, they all helped address areas that the Vikings needed to address. Wyms adds depth at defensive end as well as a veteran presence at the position. He's not a sack machine, having only gotten to the QB 16.5 times in his seven year career, but he's more than good enough to be in the end of the rotation, and he won't kill you if you have to play him due to injuries.
The signing of Pope and Sartz adds depth at linebacker and special teams, as Pope will be able to compete with Heath Farwell for the primary backup role, and he'll fit in nicely on the coverage teams, an area that can always be improved when you play in a division that includes Koren Robinson and Devin Hester. Sartz will be competing with the healed Rufus Alexander for the last LB spot and a spot on special teams, positions that you want to have as mich competition for as possible.
As for Ferguson, he showed last year that he can have value as a fourth or fifth reciever, catching 32 passes for 392 yards and a touchdown. He's also one of the league's best downfield blockers, a skill that the Vikings just might be ab le to find a use for.
In slightly worse news, Bryant McKinnie pleaded "Not Guilty" to a list of charges in Miami, reminding me that I should add all of the linemen that might be drafted in late first round to my to my list of prospects to preview.
If the Vikings do end up using their first round pick on an offensive lineman, they can still upgrade at defensive end, as, word out of Carolina is that that Julius Peppers, quite possibly the most talented defensive end in the NFL, is available for the right price. He won't be cheap though, as the Panthers would likely ask for a 1st and 3rd round pick for him. Is he worth it? Well, that depends a lot on what your opinion of the Vikings is. If you believe that they have a legitimate chance of going to the Super Bowl in the next two years, then Peppers is more than worth it, as he would immediately give the Purple a defensive line that only the Giants could challenge. If, however, you look at the uncertainty at important offensive positions like Left Tackle and Quarterback and think its more likely that they're upside is "playoff team" at best, then those picks can be used to improve a roster that is still recovering from the horrendous 2004 and 2005 drafts. More than anything though, I'd be wary of Peppers production dropoff last year, where he only notched 2.5 sacks in 14 games (his season was cut short by a knee sprain). That kind of precipitous drop off may just be because of a bad season, or it may signal the end of the his reign as the NFL's best defensive end. And make no mistake about it--whichever team gets Peppers will be giving up the draft picks that the NFL's best defensive end would cost.
Another option for the Vikings is to draft a defensive end in the second, third or fourth round, similar to what they did last year when they drafted Brian Robison. If you haven't seen it yet, an anonymous commenter left a scouting report on Eastern Michigan's Jason Jones, who'll be a player the Vikings are looking at on the second day:
"Eastern Michigan's Jason Jones should at least be considered in the 4th (maybe 3rd) round. For starters, his build is similar to Derrick Harvey's (slightly taller -- above 6'5, slightly longer arms), although Jones played around 275-280 in college and slimmed down in anticipation of a move to DE in the pros after playing @ DT his senior year.Comments like that are more than appreciated (he also left some more thoughts on Derrick Harvey which you should read). The more information and discussion we have, the better, in my opinion.
There are concerns about his production. He got 19 sacks in 4 years as a starter, and had no double-digit pressures/hurries in a season until '07. Without having seen EMU's games it's hard to determine if those numbers should be taken at face value, or if other factors come into play. However, he's always able to make tackles and take guys down in the backfield.
In the Senior Bowl he returned to playing @ DE and manhandled the tackle lined up against him (Kirk Barton, Ohio State) during practice. In the game itself he was able to collapse the pocket and force mistakes. He showed quickness, athleticism, the skill to utilize a variety of pass rush moves, and the ability to use his wingspan to his advantage. At the Combine he got 18 reps in the bench press; either he isn't a workout fiend, or Harvey's 30 reps means he's far stronger than he looks. Inconsistent agility tests -- great 3-cone drill time, average shuttle, poor vertical -- mean little considering what he showed during Senior Bowl Week, leading back to the point you made in your post.
Given his ability to improve (in terms of conditioning/shape as well as skill) I could see him becoming a surprise down the road, like Justin Tuck. He's able to line up in various spots and continue to be a threat regardless of where he is. It's funny how the Tampa Two's success starts with your front four; yet it's Coughlin/Spagnuolo's Giants who embraced that more than anyone by employing versatile DEs they can rely on to produce in an unorthodox manner, e.g. Tuck lined up @ DT, Umenyiora/Kiwanuka @ OLB."
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Tuesday Roundup
A lot has happened since my last post, but the biggest thing is definitely the Vikings trade of Troy Williamson to the Jaguars. The Purple will receive a sixth round pick for the fourth year receiver, and put a final end to one of the worst trades in NFL history (luckily for the Purple, it wasn't the worst...that would be the Herschel Walker trade. Ugh).
This trade brings to mind one of the many things that I'll never understand about Vikings' fans. I understand those who want Brad Childress fired. I disagree (for now), but I can see where they're coming from. What I don't understand is why people would want Mike Tice back. He took over a team with two offensive stars, but was never able to do anything with them, or provide them with any kind of support and then turned them into nothing. I understand that a lot of that can and should be blamed on Red McCombs and the personnel staff, however, in the end, the Vikings had Daunte Culpepper in his prime (and it was a beautiful prime) and Randy Moss and turned them into two years of Napolean Harris, three years of Troy Williamson and Ryan Cook, who is at best an average right tackle. Maybe that isn't Tice's fault, but I can't think of anything else when I think of him.
On a happier note, there is the outside possibility that the Vikings will be able to turn that sixth rounder into a useful player. Derek Anderson, Arnez Battle and David Tyree will all taken in the sixth round, as were Vikings Matt Birk and Robert Tate and former Vikings tight end Andrew Jordan.
Bernard Berrian:
I'll be looking at D.J Hackett and Donte Stallworth in the next few days, but I've already done the research on them, and I still believe that Berrian is the best receiver on the market. And he's going to be an unrestricted free agent on February 29th, because da Bears didn't place a franchise tag on him. The Vikings have $30 million in cap room, and they should use as much as necessary to bring in Berrian.
Bryant McKinnie
Because it wouldn't be the Vikings without some kind of really stupid off the field behavior, Bryant McKinnie was arrested over the weekend for getting in a fight outside of a club. He tried to escape via bus (Quick! To the Escape Bus!), but that obviously didn't work, and he has a court date set for March 17th, where he's being charged with aggravated battery (a felony) and two misdemeanors. That's not good. Even if he doesn't gets jail time, Access Vikings pointed out that it might not matter to Commissioner Goodell, since this is McKinnie's second violation of the NFL Conduct Policy. Whatever your thoughts on Mount McKinnie, the Vikings can't afford to lose their starting left tackle, especially if he gets hit with a long suspension. Tarvaris has not shown the ability to deal with pressure well, which he's guaranteed to face more of if he doesn't have McKinnie guarding his blindside.
Dwight Smith
The Vikings released their starting strong safety last week (I really need to update more often--I promise I'll work on it). While Smith has been a solid contributer, his play wasn't so good that it made sense to hold onto him despite his off field troubles. If you're going to get burned by Devin Hester on a simple go route that you knew he was running, well, you better not get arrested for marijuana possession and lewd conduct at a night club.
Tank Williams and Mike Doss are both unrestricted free agents, which means that they don't have anyone to start at the position next year, unless they plan on moving Antoine Winfield to strong safety (a position he would excel in), which would create a similar gap at cornerback. I wouldn't be surprised to see Childress bring Tank back (and he does have a bad ass name), something that would at least justify the Vikings' decision to release Greg Blue before last year. Even if they do bring back Tank, however, they should try and find a long term solution in the draft, something they were likely planning on doing last year, until the Redskins drafted LaRon Landry at #6 and the Purple Jesus fell into their lap. Kenny Williams, a senior from the University of Miami, is widely considered the best safety in the draft, but he might not be available to the Purple at #17. Despite that, he's officially been added to the list of players I plan on taking an in depth look at prior to the draft (along with defensive ends Derrick Harvey from Florida and Calais Campbell from Miami, as well as a few others).
This trade brings to mind one of the many things that I'll never understand about Vikings' fans. I understand those who want Brad Childress fired. I disagree (for now), but I can see where they're coming from. What I don't understand is why people would want Mike Tice back. He took over a team with two offensive stars, but was never able to do anything with them, or provide them with any kind of support and then turned them into nothing. I understand that a lot of that can and should be blamed on Red McCombs and the personnel staff, however, in the end, the Vikings had Daunte Culpepper in his prime (and it was a beautiful prime) and Randy Moss and turned them into two years of Napolean Harris, three years of Troy Williamson and Ryan Cook, who is at best an average right tackle. Maybe that isn't Tice's fault, but I can't think of anything else when I think of him.
On a happier note, there is the outside possibility that the Vikings will be able to turn that sixth rounder into a useful player. Derek Anderson, Arnez Battle and David Tyree will all taken in the sixth round, as were Vikings Matt Birk and Robert Tate and former Vikings tight end Andrew Jordan.
Bernard Berrian:
I'll be looking at D.J Hackett and Donte Stallworth in the next few days, but I've already done the research on them, and I still believe that Berrian is the best receiver on the market. And he's going to be an unrestricted free agent on February 29th, because da Bears didn't place a franchise tag on him. The Vikings have $30 million in cap room, and they should use as much as necessary to bring in Berrian.
Bryant McKinnie
Because it wouldn't be the Vikings without some kind of really stupid off the field behavior, Bryant McKinnie was arrested over the weekend for getting in a fight outside of a club. He tried to escape via bus (Quick! To the Escape Bus!), but that obviously didn't work, and he has a court date set for March 17th, where he's being charged with aggravated battery (a felony) and two misdemeanors. That's not good. Even if he doesn't gets jail time, Access Vikings pointed out that it might not matter to Commissioner Goodell, since this is McKinnie's second violation of the NFL Conduct Policy. Whatever your thoughts on Mount McKinnie, the Vikings can't afford to lose their starting left tackle, especially if he gets hit with a long suspension. Tarvaris has not shown the ability to deal with pressure well, which he's guaranteed to face more of if he doesn't have McKinnie guarding his blindside.
Dwight Smith
The Vikings released their starting strong safety last week (I really need to update more often--I promise I'll work on it). While Smith has been a solid contributer, his play wasn't so good that it made sense to hold onto him despite his off field troubles. If you're going to get burned by Devin Hester on a simple go route that you knew he was running, well, you better not get arrested for marijuana possession and lewd conduct at a night club.
Tank Williams and Mike Doss are both unrestricted free agents, which means that they don't have anyone to start at the position next year, unless they plan on moving Antoine Winfield to strong safety (a position he would excel in), which would create a similar gap at cornerback. I wouldn't be surprised to see Childress bring Tank back (and he does have a bad ass name), something that would at least justify the Vikings' decision to release Greg Blue before last year. Even if they do bring back Tank, however, they should try and find a long term solution in the draft, something they were likely planning on doing last year, until the Redskins drafted LaRon Landry at #6 and the Purple Jesus fell into their lap. Kenny Williams, a senior from the University of Miami, is widely considered the best safety in the draft, but he might not be available to the Purple at #17. Despite that, he's officially been added to the list of players I plan on taking an in depth look at prior to the draft (along with defensive ends Derrick Harvey from Florida and Calais Campbell from Miami, as well as a few others).
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