The Failure of the Return Game

One of the problems with Brad Childress’ plan to win with defense, field position, the running game and the occasional big play was he forgot one of the most important components of field position: special teams. And I’m not just talking about the punt coverage. The Vikings had one of the worst return games in the NFL, barely presenting any threat to break a big play on a punt or kick return. It was pretty clear which team had put some thought into improving their return game last off season on Sunday, with DeSean Jackson racking up 109 punt return yards, including a 62 and 30 yard return, to the Vikings 1 return yard.

The stats for the season are equally bleak. The Vikings had only three kick returns longer than 40 yards, with their longest return being a 49 yarder by Darius Reynaud against Chicago in the Metrodome (he also had one of the other returns longer than 40 yards the next week against Detroit). They were one of only six NFL teams without a return of 50 yards or more. Their punt return game was equally bad. They led the NFL in fair catches, with 23. That means, of the 57 times a Vikings’ player caught a punt, they called for a fair catch 40% of the time. If you’re looking for a reason why the Purple only had four punt returns of more than 20 yards, and only one of more than 40 (Bernard Berrian’s 82 yard return for a touchdown), that’s probably the most likely.

There were a myriad of reasons for the Vikings’ futility. The first was Aundrae Allison’s failure to repeat his 2007 performance as a kick returner. In the first two games, he averaged 17.3 yards on three returns, with his longest return being 22 yards. At that point, the Vikings tried Chester Taylor, but he wasn’t much better. They tried Charles Gordon, who, while explosive (he had a return of 42 yards), got hurt. Then they tried veteran returner Maurice Hicks, who also wasn’t much better, but since he had no other role and he was a veteran, he stuck as the primary returner, returning 29 kicks. And he was bad. He averaged 23.8 yards per return, with only 7 returns of more than 30 yards. Basically what I expected. Darius Reynaud looked like he might turn into a quality returner, but he got hurt, which lead to more Hicks and even more poor kick off returns.

The Vikings' basically had the same problem at punt returner. They tried Aundrae Allison, but he was about as bad returning punts as kickoffs. They tried Charles Gordon, who, prior to getting hurt, averaged 4.4 yards per return while calling for 11 fair catches on 26 punts. They tried Bobby Wade and Bernard Berrian, neither of whom they wanted returning punts, since they're the Vikings' top two receivers. The two of them at least averaged more than ten yards per return, but Wade called for a fair catch on 50% of his punts, and while Berrian returned a punt 82 yards for a touchdown, he called for a fair catch on 42% of the punts he received.

Field position matters, especially when you have an offense built on running and short passes, like the Vikings. And the Vikings inability to find anything but mediocre punt and kick returners means that they had to go even further on each drive, something their offense just isn't equipped to do. The Purple averaged 29 yards per drive this year (according to Football Outsiders), which means that the difference between a fair catch at their own 30 yard line and a ten yard punt return to the 40 yard line was the difference between a punt and a field goal. And if that happened just once, it'd be the difference between the Vikings' being 12th in points per game and 3rd. With the Purple's defense, three points is a lot. And starting out with good field position may have been the difference in the playoffs, something we'll never know, since the Purple's return men never provided them with that luxury.

[I'm going to be out of town until Tuesday, so don't expect too many posts until then. I'll try and get something up, but my plans for what I'm going to do when traveling and what actually happens rarely seems to match up]

Three Stars: NFC NORTH CHAMPIONS

If one is being honest, then one would not be happy with the Vikings performance today. The defense didn't play well, and Derrick Ward ran all over the Purple. The last minute of the Vikings' game winning drive was about as poorly run and executed as could be. However, I'm not going to be that guy, on this, the day of the Vikings' first NFC North crown. Today is a happy day--the Vikings won a big game for the first time this decade and with it, their first division crown. So we're going to hand out the Three Stars of the Game and celebrate those who did the most to get the Purple their first crown.

Third Star: Adrian Peterson

It wasn't his best game, but he had the play of the first half, making one cut and going 67 yards for his longest run of the year and the Vikings' first touchdown. With that run, he pretty much sealed his first rushing title, guaranteed he'd finish the season with 3000 rushing yards for his career (only the fifth running back to reach that mark in his first two years) and more than made up for the fact that he averaged under two yards a carry, aside from that run, in the first half and had his ninth fumble.

Second Star: Ryan Longwell

I've said it before, and I'll say it again--when you make a game winning field goal, you get to be one of the Stars of the Game. Especially when it's a 50 yard field goal, the coach is being indecisive and it's to win a division title for the first time since 2000. And from the second he kicked it, there was no doubt that it was going in. And that's not even including the 48 yard field goal he made in the first half. And don't scoff at that field goal either--what would have happened if Jon Carney had made his final attempt, a 48 yard kick that would have forced the Purple to score a touchdown to win.

First Star: Bernard Berrian

No player had more to do with the Vikings' win today than Bernard Berrian. His 54 yard touchdown catch got the Vikings back into the game after they Giants went up 9 points and, while the Giant covering him fell down, Berrian turned what would have been a 30 yard catch into a touchdown by putting a move on another Giant and then outracing him to the end zone. He also had the most important catch of the final drive, hauling in a 9 yard reception on 3rd and 8. And it was a beauty of a catch--the throw was high, but he still managed to bring it in and get both feet in bounds in a catch that was reminiscent of Chris Carter's specialty. He played like a #1 receiver today and it was a glorious thing to watch.

Killing Time: The One, True Purple Jesus

The Purple Jesus

Adrian Peterson rushing yards this season alone would crack the top twenty for career rushing yards by a Viking. If he didn’t get a yard against the Giants, this would be the 38^th most rushing yards in an NFL season and if he gets 117 yards, he’ll crack the top twenty. And if he gets 1 43 yards, he’ll become the 15^th running back in the history of the NFL to rush for 1800 yards in a season. He’s currently 9^th among Vikings in career rushing yards and he has an outside chance of passing Michael Bennett for 8^th all time this season (he needs 177 yards to do so). He only needs two more yards to crack 3000 yards for his career and he’s rushed for more yards in his first two years than nine of the running backs in the top ten in rushing yards (only Eric Dickerson had more yards his first two years than Peterson). This is his second season. Think about that. If there’s a player that has earned the “Purple Jesus” nickname, it’s Adrian Peterson. What he has done just defies my ability to describe.

There are two things, however, that Vikings’ fans should be concerned about when it comes to AD. The first was demonstrated very clearly on Sunday—he’s fumble prone. As the Pro Football Reference blog points out, that’s likely a result of his ability to gain yards no other back can (and goes on to look at what an optimal turnover rate might be). Also, Peterson apparently took my advice and carried a football around all week like Omar Epps did in the Program.

The second issue that Vikings fans should be worried about is his work load. He only needs 28 carries to reach 370 for the year, and as Smarter Stats shows, that’s a work load that almost no running back can handle without breaking down (or having their performance fall off markedly). Peterson has carried the ball more than 28 times in four games this year (IND, GNB, CHI, @ ARI). Giving him the ball 29 times against the Colts and 30 times against the Packers makes sense to me. Both games were decided by a field goal. Giving him the ball 28 times against Chicago, including five times after the Vikings went up 31-14 with eight minutes left, does not. Nor does giving him 28 carries, including 13 in the second half, in the blowout of the Cardinals. And even if he doesn’t get to 370 carries this year, he’ll have still carried the ball a tremendous amount, and absorbed the punishment that comes with running the ball 360 times. It’s something Childress needs to keep in mind against the Giants and next year (if he's still around next year). There is no greater sin that Childress could commit that would be worse than ruining Adrian Peterson’s career by over working him.

T.J. and Tarvaris

Tarvaris Jackson’s one year old son, Tarvaris, Jr. (If you had an awesome first name like Tarvaris, you’d pass your name along too) has been battling health issues all season. This is the first I’ve heard of it, and it makes Tarvaris’s transformation from benched quarterback to clear starter (and there is no doubt in my mind that he should be starting this game over a healthy Gus Frerotte) all the more remarkable. Best wishes to his son, and hopefully he can bring home a division crown for him.

This game is going to be the first time that Tarvaris Jackson faces an elite pass rush (the Giants are 5^th in adjusted sack rate) since returning from the bench. If the Vikings are smart, they’ll try and get the ball to Chester Taylor in the passing game. The Giants’ pass defense has the worst DVOA in the NFL against running backs. The reason I say Taylor and not Peterson is because Taylor’s one of the best receiving running backs in the NFL and Peterson is one of the worst. Taylor’s 11^th in the NFL amongst backs in DYAR and 12^th in DVOA and he’s caught 81% of the 54 passes thrown his way. Peterson is 51^st in DYAR and 50^th in DVOA and he’s only caught 54% of the 39 passes thrown his way. (Adjusted Sack Rate, DYAR and DVOA courtesy of Football Outsiders)

1000 yards

Bernard Berrian needs 117 receiving yards to become the tenth Viking with 1000 receiving yards in a season and the first since Nate Burleson in 2004. It’s probably a long shot though—he’s only had that many receiving yards in a game twice in his career, although both games were this year (against Detroit and against Chicago). He only needs 69 yards to surpass his previous season high of 951 yards, which he set last year. That’s a lot more likely, as he’s had seven games this year where he had at least 69 yards, although all of them came with Frerotte at quarterback.

Purple Pass Catching Tight Ends

After gaining 136 receiving yards against the Falcons, Visanthe Shaincoe cracked the top ten all time for receiving yards by a Vikings’ tight end. The top ten is below (courtesy of Pro Football Reference). Two things stick out—the first is Joe Senser’s remarkable 1981 season. I’ll be honest—while I know of him because of his restaurant, I didn’t know he was that good of a player. It’s too bad that he suffered a career ending knee injury in 1982. Of course, his retirement led to the second most striking part of the list; the dominance and consistency of Senser’s replacement, Steve Jordan. When you have half the spots in the top ten (and 60% of the spots in the top 5) you’re clearly the best player to ever play the position in Purple. And in case you were wondering, the tight end who was 10th before Shaincoe's big game? Steve Jordan.

1. Joe Senser, 1981--1004 yards
2. Steve Jordan, 1986—859 yards
3. Steve Jordan, 1985—795 yards
4. Steve Jordan, 1988—756 yards
5. Jermaine Wiggins, 2004—705 yards
6. Byron Chamberlain, 2001—666 yards
7. Steve Jordan, 1991—638 yards
8. Steve Jordan, 1990—636 yards
9. Visanthe Shaincoe, 2008—582 yards
10. Jermain Wiggins, 2005—568 yards

The Giants Schedule

The Giants have a chance to set a record for Quality Wins (wins over teams with a winning record) in the regular season (and then in the playoffs) if things break their way on Sunday. Do not underestimate the Giants—this is a talented team that has played and beaten some very good teams. Even with some of their starters resting, they have the ability to beat the Vikings.

Go Lions

The only thing that could possibly make me feel better tomorrow if the Vikings lose and da Bears win is if the Packers lose to the Lions. That would be a black mark on their franchise that no other franchise could match—a loss to a 0-15 team, the worst team ever. Schadenfreude is a beautiful thing. It is a beautiful thing.

Playoff Scenarios

Joe Posnanski explains the various playoff scenarios. Yes, I could have found a better, more concise article on this subject to link to, but I’m going to take every opportunity I have to link to the best sports writer in America (and thus possibly spread the joy of reading him). Read him and thank me later.

Three Stars: The Only Three

Ok. That headline is probably a little over the top. There were definitely more than three defensive players that performed well (thankfully, or the Vikings would have lost). Offensively, there was really only one player who was worth celebrating. You can probably guess who it is, but read on, as I unveil the Three Stars for the game.

Third Star: Jared Allen

Jared Allen earned his first weekly star on Sunday for two reasons. The first is because he scared the Lions so much on the edge that they didn't double team Kevin Williams. Forcing teams to choose between doubling Allen and doubling Williams is one of the reasons why I remain excited about his presence on the team. The other reason why he gets the Third Star? This play:

And yes, I think that Allen getting through the line unblocked and scaring Orlovsky so much he forgot where he was means that Allen should get credit, rather than Orlovsky getting blamed.

Second Star: Bernard Berrian

Any surprise here? Berrian turning a 13 yard pass into an 86 yard touchdown was the biggest play of the game. Without it, the Vikings' lose. It was his second straight game with over 100 yards receiving (he's on pace for over 1100), and he remains the Vikings' only real deep threat. And really, that run after the catch was a thing of beauty--he made three defenders miss (and, following a monster block from, I think, Aundrae Allison) and made the kind of big play the Vikings haven't seen their wide receivers make in a long time. The most impressive part? He's still nursing a knee injury. Think about what he'd be able to do if he was healthy!

First Star: Kevin Williams

Is anyone surprised that the Lions thought it was a good idea to single team Kevin Williams (Is there anything worse than that franchise's decision making)? I think he showed, quite clearly, why real teams don't do that. Well, at least I hope that his eight tackles, one of which was for a loss and one of which was for no gain and his four sacks would convince teams not to single team him (actually, wait...never mind--I hope it doesn't). His plays all came at crucial times too--in one sequence, he stopped Jerome Felton for no gain on 3rd and 1, which forced the Lions to punt. Bernard Berrian then scored on the Vikings next play. Then, when the Lions got the ball back, he stopped Rudi Johnson for a four yard loss on first down and sacked Orlovsky on 3rd down, almost single handedly ending that drive. He also sacked Orlovsky on a 3rd and 4 in Vikings' territory in the fourth quarter and then ended any chance of the Lions completing a fluke Hail Mary by bringing down Orlovsky on the final play. The man, quite simply, was a BEAST. And that's why he's the First Star this week.

First Place

Ladies and Gentlemen--your first place Minnesota Vikings!

That was ugly. U-G-L-Y. Kevin Williams is unbelievable. Bernard Berrian was a great signing. And I'm seriously trying to decide if I'd rather have the Vikings miss the playoffs if it means they get a new coach. But the Falcons win means that the Purple are tied for first with the Bears.

More on the game later today and tomorrow. Then I'm moving on, because a 12-10 win over this Lions team is pathetic, but it could be worse, because the Lions aren't the worst team in the league and because the Lions didn't win.

Three Stars: Back in the Hunt

(Thoughts on the First Half , Third Quarter and Fourth Quarter are below.)

A lot of good games from Vikings tonight. Tyrell Johnson had his first quality game, recovering a fumble, picking off the final pass and defending a few passes. I'm not really sure what he was doing with that lateral though. Ben Leber more than stepped up as a pass defender, blanketing Devery Henderson and making an acrobatic interception in the Red Zone. Gus Frerotte had decent stats, completing 53% of his 36 pass attempts for 222 yards and a touchdown, but he had a fumble and I just feel like that his completion percentage and yardage would have been lower if it hadn't been for some great catches by his wide receivers (including a one handed grab by Berrian on a ball thrown behind him and directly to a defender). And Childress felt that he'd rather call a halfback pass than trust Frerotte in the Red Zone in the Second Quarter after Frerotte had already gone three and out that drive (and had been bailed out by a penalty).

In the end, the Vikings' didn't really deserve to win this game. But you know what? The Colts didn't really deserve to win in Week 2 either. These things even out. And now the Purple are 2-3, tied for second in the division and control their own destiny in the division race (which is hugely important, what with the NFC East looking so good so far).

So, without further ado, the Three Stars:

Third Star: Ryan Longwell

As a general rule of thumb, I like to reward the guy who makes the game winning play (don't worry, Bernard Berrian is in here). And Longwell was able to do what Martin Gramatica could not--make the game winning field goal (true, his attempt was a lot shorter, but I bet he would have made the kick Gramatica missed). Add in a 33 yarder in the Second Quarter and a 53 yard field goal in the First Quarter, which is tied for the third longest of Longwell's career and you have a star worthy performance from one of the most underrated kickers in the NFL.

Second Star: Bernard Berrian

The Saints still stacked the box with 8 and 9 guys throughout the game. But Berrian made them pay, catching two under thrown deep balls on the Vikings' game tying drive, including the game tying touchdown. He also drew the pass interference penalty that got the Vikings into field goal range. Berrian's 110 receiving yards make him the first Viking with 100+ receiving yards in a game since Troy Williamson had 102 yards receiving against the Panthers in Week 2 of 2006 (that's right--the Vikings had 34 straight games without a receiver catching 100 yards). This is why the Vikings signed Berrian--to create a deep game even if the quarterback can't throw a catchable deep ball. And today he showed that he can do it.

First Star: Antoine Winfield

Let's see here--8 tackles, one sack, one fumble forced and recovered and a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown (the first ever by a Viking in the regular season). Not a bad days work for Winfield. With so many stars on the defense, Winfield tends to get lost, but Winfield is second to none when it comes to big plays and it's no coincidence that he scored a touchdown in both of the Vikings' wins.

Desperate for a Win

As I said yesterday, if you look at the Vikings and Panthers' records, this game seems like a mismatch. However, when you delve a little bit further, it becomes apparent that the Vikings not only have a very good chance of winning this game, they've played as well as the Panthers have, only without the results. If Gus Frerotte can get the passing game to work better than Tarvaris Jackson did, the Vikings should beat the Panthers and begin climbing back into contention. If he can't, however, the Vikings will be sitting at 0-3 and basically done for the season, with only a 3.4% chance of making the playoffs.

Rank	Team	Total DVOA	Last Week	DAVE	Rank	OFF DVOA	Rank	DEF DVOA	Rank
18	MIN	-1.7%	22	17.2%	8	0.4%	18	-5.8%	11
19	CAR	-2.0%	17	2.7%	17	1.4%	15	3.4%	17

As you can see, the Vikings have a slightly better DVOA than the Panthers do and are still considered the better team by DAVE, which combines the preseason projection and the results so far in an attempt to get a more reliable ranking of teams early in the year. The Vikings have been much better on defense overall (you want a negative defensive DVOA) and have been relatively comparable offensively.

When you start to break it down a even more, the differences between the Vikings and Panthers becomes more apparent.

Rank	Team	OFF DVOA	Last Week	OFF DAVE	Rank	Pass OFF	Pass Rank	Rush OFF	Rush Rank
18	MIN	0.4%	19	9.5%	9	-18.1%	24	16.1%	7
15	CAR	1.4%	9	2.1%	13	-3.8%	19	6.4%	14

Offensively, the Panthers are a much better passing team than the Vikings are. You probably knew that. They aren't a great passing team though, as their DVOA passing is negative. Of course, that's without Steve Smith and as we've all seen before, Steve Smith is the kind of difference maker that can practically win a game by himself. Runningwise, the Panthers have a solid line and two good backs, including a stud rookie in Jonathon Stewart. Stewart's actually fourth overall in DYAR and DVOA so far this year, and he's 8th in Success Rate, which isn't a surprise because he is a load to tackle (The Purple Jesus is 2nd, 5th and 6th in those three categories). DeAngelo Williams is a good back as well and is 17th in DYAR and 16th in DVOA. So while it's not unreasonable for them to be splitting the carries 50/50, he's going to start losing carries to Stewart, just like Chester Taylor lost carries to Adrian Peterson. That hasn't happened quite yet, however.

Defensively, the Panthers have trouble against both the pass and the run, but their issues stopping the pass are nowhere near as pronounced as the Vikings.

Rank	Team	DEF DVOA	Last Week	DEF DAVE	Rank	Pass DEF	Pass Rank	Rush DEF	Rush Rank
11	MIN	-5.8%	23	-8.0%	7	15.6%	22	-31.1%	4
17	CAR	3.4%	27	-3.0%	11	3.6%	14	3.1%	19

The Panthers’ struggles against the pass come from their inability to get pressure. This isn't a new or unexpected issue, either, as the Panthers had the second fewest sacks last year and lost two of their best pass rushers when they traded Kris Jenkins and lost Mike Rucker to retirement. They've also had problems against the run (something the Vikings just might be able to exploit), though they've done a better job than the Packers and Colts, who are ranked 23rd and 24th, respectively, in DVOA against the run.

So, the statistics say that there's hope for the Vikings on Sunday. That might not matter, however. The Vikings' do have the home field advantage and they're definitely the more desperate team, but I think the Panthers still have the edge for two reasons. The first is the Vikings' injuries. Bernard Berrian and Sidney Rice are banged up to the point where they might not be able to be effective with Peyton Manning circa 2004 throwing to them, let alone with Gus Frerotte. Adrian Peterson is having hamstring issues. And that's not even factoring in that Visanthe Shiancoe is perfectly healthy and just waiting for the perfect moment to drop a key pass.

The second reason I think the Panthers have the advantage is that this will be Steve Smith's first game back from his suspension. There are few players in the NFL that scare me more than a fired up Steve Smith. And Steve Smith will be fired up on Sunday, which, when combined with the Vikings' mediocre to awful secondary, means that, while we likely won't see him mock-rowing in the end zone, we are likely to see him do some shadow boxing there.

I think the Panthers win this one, 27-13, dropping the Vikings to 0-3 and guaranteeing that a new regime is going to inherit a team one quarterback away from Super Bowl contention. Wonder if Bill Cowher will want to coach a running game like the Vikings have?

Three Stars: So Close

One of the things I did last year was name Three Stars for every game, even the losses (well, except the loss at Green Bay, when I was too depressed and angry to follow through on it). I figure it's best to try and be positive before doing a game recap, even if it's hard. That, and it helps at the end of the season when trying to determine an MVP (though that was particularly easy last year). The negativity (and some positivity) will come in the next post, which will be up later this morning--I promise. But first, the Three Stars.

Third Star: Garrett Mills

Brad Childress seemed particularly happy last year when he went head to head with Bill Bilichick over Garrett Mills and won. He was probably the only one who was happy about it though, as Mills caught only two passes all year for a total of twenty six yards. He almost doubled his yardage from last year in his first game, catching three passes for forty nine yards and leading the Vikings in receiving. Two of those receptions went for first downs, and while he did drop a catchable pass, it wasn't the easiest catch to make. Not a bad season opener for the "backup receiving tight end", that's for sure.

Second Star: Bernard Berrian

The Vikings signed him to be a playmaker, their number one wide receiver, able to make things happen deep and convert third downs into first downs. The numbers might not reflect it, but Berrian did both those things yesterday. While he only had 3 catches for 38 yards, he also managed to draw two pass interference penalties (The refs failed to call, second one, an obvious penalty on Al Harris near the end of the first half that would have put the Vikings in scoring position, so I'm going to still give Berrian credit for it). He also got open on a slant on 3rd and 4 during the Vikings' first scoring drive, but Tarvaris Jackson one hopped him the pass forcing the Vikings to settle for a field goal. Was he dominate? No. But he did make things happen on his end, even if Tarvaris couldn't get him the ball.

First Star: Adrian Peterson

Let's see here--over 100 yards rushing? Check. Touchdown? Check. Hitting Al Harris so hard he thought he was Fab Morvan? Check. A long run where he moved and cutback in ways people shouldn't be able to do? Check. Power runs that pulled an entire defense an extra three yards? Yup, that too. It was a vintage Adrian Peterson game, where he showed why he's the best pure runner in the NFL, able to punish, evade, out run and gain four yards despite having to drag three defenders the entire way. And considering how often he seemed to have no hole to run through, the fact he was successful on more than fifty percent of his carries (gained four yards or scored) and didn't have a single carry for a loss just shows how great he is. The scary thing (for other teams)? He's still figuring it out.

Weekend Roundup: BERNARD BERRIAN!!!

In one of the better sports weekends in my recent memory, the Hoyas came away with an amazing come from behind win at #21 Marquette, the Vikings filled some of the holes in their roster, including the signing of a legitimate wide receiver who is an actual deep threat, something the Purple haven't had since they traded Randy Moss away after the 2004 season.

The signing of Berrian is huge. And when I say huge, I mean "create a 'hope' tag for the first time" huge. He was, quite simply, the best receiver available to the Vikings on the free agent market. When I wrote about him earlier, I didn't expect him to make it away from Chicago, because I expected da Bears to either sign him or use the franchise tag on him. They didn't do either, and because of Zygi Wilf's willingness to spend money to make his team better (this is the second time since he took over in 2005 that the Vikings have made a splash in free agency), the Vikings have added the biggest piece missing from their offense (assuming that the Purple are planning on continuing the Tarvaris Revolution).

And while Berrian has never had 1000 yards receiving, or 100 receptions, what he has done is produce despite having mediocre to bad quarterbacks throwing him the ball. No matter what your opinion of Tarvaris is, he's not that much worse than Kyle Orton, Rex Grossman and Brian Griese, especially when you consider that da Bears played in conditions that weren't favorable to passing.

Of course, some seem to think that the Vikings overpaid for Berrian. His contract for six years included $16 million in guaranteed money and was worth $42 million overall, which makes him the fourth highest paid receiver in the NFL. Is he the 4th best receiver in the NFL? Probably not. That's a flawed metric to use in order to determine if the Vikings overpaid, however, because the market for free agents this year is different than last year's, or the year before that, or the year before that. The question one needs to ask to determine if the Vikings overpaid is to determine whether they could have used the money to acquire a better player and if Berrian's value to the Vikings is worth the cap space he takes up. I think he was the best receiver available and that he will be more than worth the money to the Vikings and to Adrian Peterson, who will only have to run into eight and nine man fronts, instead of the nine and ten man fronts he saw last year.

First off, Berrian greatly upgrades the Vikings' weakest position, something that the Purple absolutely had to do this off season. Secondly, the Vikings had the cap room to spend, something they are likely to continue to have, considering the ability they have shown at managing their cap (for example, Chester Taylor, Steve Hutchinson and the rest of the Vikings' big signings in 2005 didn't effect their ability to pursue free agents last year or to sign free agents this year). Finally, when one considers that Donte' Stallworth, a receiver who was an inferior version of Berrian, signed a contract for seven years, with $10 million of it's $35 million total guaranteed, Berrian's contract looks a lot better. One of the keys to free agency is to spend your money on the best talent. Where a team can get itself in trouble is when it starts shelling out money to mid range talent. And Berrian was clearly the best talent available at wide receiver. And now he's a Viking.

As I said earlier in the post, it was a good weekend.

[Up next--Who's left the Purple, Who's rushing the quarterback, and Maurice Hicks & Jabar Gaffney]

Tuesday Roundup

A lot has happened since my last post, but the biggest thing is definitely the Vikings trade of Troy Williamson to the Jaguars. The Purple will receive a sixth round pick for the fourth year receiver, and put a final end to one of the worst trades in NFL history (luckily for the Purple, it wasn't the worst...that would be the Herschel Walker trade. Ugh).

This trade brings to mind one of the many things that I'll never understand about Vikings' fans. I understand those who want Brad Childress fired. I disagree (for now), but I can see where they're coming from. What I don't understand is why people would want Mike Tice back. He took over a team with two offensive stars, but was never able to do anything with them, or provide them with any kind of support and then turned them into nothing. I understand that a lot of that can and should be blamed on Red McCombs and the personnel staff, however, in the end, the Vikings had Daunte Culpepper in his prime (and it was a beautiful prime) and Randy Moss and turned them into two years of Napolean Harris, three years of Troy Williamson and Ryan Cook, who is at best an average right tackle. Maybe that isn't Tice's fault, but I can't think of anything else when I think of him.

On a happier note, there is the outside possibility that the Vikings will be able to turn that sixth rounder into a useful player. Derek Anderson, Arnez Battle and David Tyree will all taken in the sixth round, as were Vikings Matt Birk and Robert Tate and former Vikings tight end Andrew Jordan.

Bernard Berrian:
I'll be looking at D.J Hackett and Donte Stallworth in the next few days, but I've already done the research on them, and I still believe that Berrian is the best receiver on the market. And he's going to be an unrestricted free agent on February 29th, because da Bears didn't place a franchise tag on him. The Vikings have $30 million in cap room, and they should use as much as necessary to bring in Berrian.

Bryant McKinnie
Because it wouldn't be the Vikings without some kind of really stupid off the field behavior, Bryant McKinnie was arrested over the weekend for getting in a fight outside of a club. He tried to escape via bus (Quick! To the Escape Bus!), but that obviously didn't work, and he has a court date set for March 17th, where he's being charged with aggravated battery (a felony) and two misdemeanors. That's not good. Even if he doesn't gets jail time, Access Vikings pointed out that it might not matter to Commissioner Goodell, since this is McKinnie's second violation of the NFL Conduct Policy. Whatever your thoughts on Mount McKinnie, the Vikings can't afford to lose their starting left tackle, especially if he gets hit with a long suspension. Tarvaris has not shown the ability to deal with pressure well, which he's guaranteed to face more of if he doesn't have McKinnie guarding his blindside.

Dwight Smith
The Vikings released their starting strong safety last week (I really need to update more often--I promise I'll work on it). While Smith has been a solid contributer, his play wasn't so good that it made sense to hold onto him despite his off field troubles. If you're going to get burned by Devin Hester on a simple go route that you knew he was running, well, you better not get arrested for marijuana possession and lewd conduct at a night club.
Tank Williams and Mike Doss are both unrestricted free agents, which means that they don't have anyone to start at the position next year, unless they plan on moving Antoine Winfield to strong safety (a position he would excel in), which would create a similar gap at cornerback. I wouldn't be surprised to see Childress bring Tank back (and he does have a bad ass name), something that would at least justify the Vikings' decision to release Greg Blue before last year. Even if they do bring back Tank, however, they should try and find a long term solution in the draft, something they were likely planning on doing last year, until the Redskins drafted LaRon Landry at #6 and the Purple Jesus fell into their lap. Kenny Williams, a senior from the University of Miami, is widely considered the best safety in the draft, but he might not be available to the Purple at #17. Despite that, he's officially been added to the list of players I plan on taking an in depth look at prior to the draft (along with defensive ends Derrick Harvey from Florida and Calais Campbell from Miami, as well as a few others).

Solving Our Problems: Bernard Berrian

[Solving Our Problems is an ongoing series here at the Ragnarok where I evaluate the Vikings' options going into the offseason. I started by looking at the quarterback options, examining Derek Anderson, Donovan McNabb and possible backups for Tarvaris Jackson. Now it's time to figure out who the QB is going to throw to, starting with free agent Bernard Berrian.]

As we all know, Brad Childress isn't a big fan of taking a wide receiver in the first round. I have no problems with that, especially after considering how the difference in performance between Sidney Rice and Troy Williamson. That means, however, that if the Vikings want to get an impact wide receiver to pair with Bobby Wade and Rice next year, they're going to have to sign them in free agency. Luckily for the Vikings, there are quite a few talented receivers who are unrestricted free agents this year (and that's not even counting Randy Moss, who is sadly just a pipe dream).

After Moss, the next best receiver on the market seems to be Bernard Berrian, formerly of the Chicago Bears. Berrian was drafted out of Fresno State in 2004 and is entering his fifth year in the NFL. And he’s made an impact for da Bears, despite having to catch passes from the likes of Rex Grossman, Brian Griese and Kyle Orton (a big plus in my book, considering he’d likely be catching passes from Tarvaris Jackson if he signed with the Purple).

And there’s a reason for all of the excitement surrounding Berrian. He’s increased his receptions and yards every year, and, while his touchdowns fell last year (from 6 to 5), that probably had as much to do with da Bears’ offense becoming worse. He’s 6’1 and is a good leaper—with an accurate quarterback (which he might not have in Purple), he’d be perfect for the fade pass, giving the Vikings another big receiver to throw to in the Red Zone. His hands are pretty good as well, as he caught 55% of the passes thrown his way, despite having inaccurate quarterbacks, and aside from his rookie year, he’s never caught fewer than 50% of the passes thrown to him.

He’d also provide the Vikings with an experienced deep threat that could take the pressure off of Sidney Rice. He has 11 catches for over 20 yards in each of the past two years, and has averaged a little under 4 catches over 40 yards per year in his career. He’s also had at least one reception over 50 yards in each of the last three years, and had two catches for 49 yards in his rookie year.

Berrian is fast, tall and experienced. He fell only 52 yards short of 1000 yards receiving last year, despite catching passes from Kyle Orton, Rex Grossman and Brian Griese. He has good hands. So what’s the problem? Well…

The first problem is that he wants to remain with da Bears, and da Bears want to resign him. That doesn’t guarantee anything, however, mainly because of the second problem, which is that Berrian is represented by Drew Rosenhaus. That’s right—the guy who represented Terrell Owens is the agent for the top free agent wide receiver on the market. That’s a good sign, in that it means that Berrian could end up anywhere. It’s also a bad sign, because it means that he’s chosen a guy like Rosenhaus, who’s perfectly willing to make things insanely difficult if it means getting his client what he wants. That probably bodes well for the Purple, as it makes it less likely that da Bears will slap the Franchise Tag on Berrian, an option that they still have, as Rosenhaus (and Berrian) will fight it.

Is Berrian the Vikings best receiver the Purple could add this year? Yes. Are they going to be able to sign him? Probably not. He’s much more likely to stay in Chicago than go anywhere else, especially because da Bears can franchise him. Is he worth dreaming about? Of course—it’s the off season. Might as well think happy thoughts..