I don't know how I managed to write a post about the worst seasons by Super Bowl quarterbacks in the modern era without writing about how they fared in the playoffs. I mean, I even mentioned Eli Manning transforming into Joe Montana after the worst regular season of any quarterback to lead their team to the Super Bowl.
It was an egregious error (Not really, but I like the word "egregious" and I like the alliteration there), and now I'm going to rectify it, and see if there's anything the Vikings can learn from it.
Worst Super Bowl Quarterbacks by QB Rating+ Since 1998
1. Eli Manning, 2007--91 QB Rating+
Eli had a QB Rating of 73.9 in the regular season. In the post season, his rating was 95.7. It helps when you go from a 23:20 TD to INT ratio to a 6:1 TD to INT ratio. The crazy thing? His QB Rating would have been higher if he hadn't had a 72.0 rating for the game at Lambeau, when it was freezing cold, which obviously effected the passing games.
2.Rex Grossman, 2006--94 QB Rating+
Grossman didn't play any better in the postseason than he did in the regular season--his 73.2 QB rating in the postseason was only .7 points lower than his regular season mark of 73.9. His yards per game were about the same, and his TD:INT ratio was only a little lower. I'm pretty sure that anybody could have quarterbacked that Bears team to the Super Bowl, and I'd bet that Lovie Smith would agree with me.
3. Trent Dilfer, 2000--100 QB Rating+
Dilfer was better in the playoffs, but not by a whole lot. He had an 83.9 QB Rating in the playoffs, and a 76.6 rating in the regular season, but that had a lot more to do with the fact that he only threw one interception and three touchdowns. And if you thought Grossman was a non factor in da Bears run, you need to look at Dilfer's stats--he only had about 18 passing attempts a game in the playoffs, only completed 48% of them, and averaged under 150 yards passing a game. If you're looking for proof that any quarterback can win the Super Bowl, here he is.
4. Steve McNair, 1999--104 QB Rating+
McNair's the only Super Bowl quarterback with a QB Rating+ under 110 that was significantly worse in the playoffs--he had an abysmal QB Rating of 65.7 in the Titans four playoff games, way down from his slightly above average rating of 78.6 in the regular season. That 65.7 included a rating of 43.1 in the Music City Miracle game (a big reason why they needed the Miracle). To put that into a context we can all understand, that's worse than the 44.2 QB rating Tarvaris Jackson had against Dallas last year. Also, I have no idea how the Titans made the Super Bowl that year (aside from riding the momentum of the Music City Miracle). Their offense was good, but not great (7th in the NFL in points), but their quarterback was awful in the playoffs. Their running game was below average (17th in the NFL in yards per attempt) and their defense was league average (15th in the NFL in points allowed). And yet, they came within a yard of going to overtime against a very, very, very good Rams team in the Super Bowl. Just goes to show that anyone can win the Super Bowl, if they can get in the playoffs.
5. Jake Delholmme, 2003--105 QB Rating+
Delholmme's the best example of a quarterback stepping his game up in the playoffs and leading his team to the Super Bowl. He had a 25+ point increase in his QB rating from the regular season to the post season (80.6 to 106.1), increased his yards per game by almost 50 yards, and had a 6:1 TD to INT ratio when it counted, a huge increase from his 19:16 TD to INT ratio in the regular season. Basically, Delholmme was Eli before Eli was, only his team didn't quite pull out the Super Bowl.
So what did we learn? Well, Dilfer and Grossman show us that a great defense, running game and special teams can carry a team to the Super Bowl, even if they have a mediocre quarterback (this is a good thing). Delholmme and Eli show us that a quarterback can get hot when it matters (Honestly, if Delholmme and Eli can do it, why can't Tarvaris?). And Steve McNair and the 1999 Titans show us that if you pull of a crazy fluke win, it can propel you within a few feet of the trophy, even if your quarterback plays like crap and you aren't really good at any one thing.
Showing posts with label Super Bowl Homeboy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Super Bowl Homeboy. Show all posts
Tuesday, June 10, 2008
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
The Return of the Purple People Eaters
I'll be honest-it took me a while to figure out how to start this post out. And, as you may be able to tell, I failed to come up with anything good. I'm going to cut myself a break here though, since the Vikings just acquired Jared Allen for their first round pick and both of their third round picks and made him the highest paid defensive player in the NFL.
That's right-the Purple now have the best defensive end in the NFL. Yup, that'll go nicely with their two Pro Bowl tackles, two young and talented defensive ends and their Pro Bowl caliber middle linebacker. Obviously Brett Favre knew something we didn't when he retired, because opposing quarterbacks are going to get destroyed when they face the Purple. I don't think I can express how excited I am about being able to finally watch the Purple actually get to opposing quarterbacks, something they haven't really been able to do since I really started following the Vikings in 1998. Heck, my friends and I still have a running joke about Kurt Warner getting in trouble with his "wife" for spending so much time checking out girls in the stands whenever he dropped back to pass against the Vikings in the 1999 playoffs.
But that's all in the past, because a defensive line of Allen, the Williams and Ray Edwards/Brian Robison will be almost impossible to stop. With that kind of pressure, the Vikings secondary is suddenly very good, since they wont have to cover for very long at all. Somehow, I see Darren Sharper's interception totals going up.
Now, I understand people's concerns about this deal. A first round pick and two third round picks is a lot to give up, especially for a player with previous violations of the NFL Personnel Conduct Policy. I discussed the various scenarios that I'd heard in an earlier post, and while I think that Rick Spielman and the Vikings' draft gurus would have been able to turn their third rounders into solid players, the Vikings' success rate with third round picks is very low. Since 2000, the Vikings have drafted Doug Chapman (2000-RB), Eric Kelly (2001-CB), Willie Offord (2002-SS), Nate Burleson (2003-WR), Darrion Scott (2004-DE), Dustin Fox (2005-CB) and Marcus McCauley (2007-CB). Offord was the only one that lasted more than four years with the Vikings, Burleson was the only one that started and McCauley is the only third rounder left on the team. So would I be willing to trade McCauley and Burleson for the right to draft Allen with the 17th pick (which, in essence, is what the Vikings are doing)? I certainly would. And I'd trade Dustin Fox and Doug Chapman for that right in a heartbeat.
And I'm not too worried about the money that the Vikings are shelling out for Allen either. While making him the third highest player in the NFL, with a six year contract worth just under $74 million, with just under $31,000,069 guaranteed is a big deal, the Vikings seem to have the cap room. And I'm willing to trust that Zygi Wilf and the Vikings put an extensive amount of time looking into Allen's claims that he hasn't had a drink since his second DUI in 2006 and his character and believe he's reformed. It is their money after all.
The Vikings now have a Super Bowl caliber pass defense. They already had a Super Bowl caliber run defense and running attack. If Tarvaris Jackson can become a league average quarterback, they are a Super Bowl contender, something they haven't been able to say going into the season in a long time. It's going to be a really fun season, that's for sure.
[I'm going to try and have a profile of the wide receivers the Vikings might draft in the second round up this afternoon, so check back and find out what the Purple might do with the only draft pick they have left in the first three rounds.]
That's right-the Purple now have the best defensive end in the NFL. Yup, that'll go nicely with their two Pro Bowl tackles, two young and talented defensive ends and their Pro Bowl caliber middle linebacker. Obviously Brett Favre knew something we didn't when he retired, because opposing quarterbacks are going to get destroyed when they face the Purple. I don't think I can express how excited I am about being able to finally watch the Purple actually get to opposing quarterbacks, something they haven't really been able to do since I really started following the Vikings in 1998. Heck, my friends and I still have a running joke about Kurt Warner getting in trouble with his "wife" for spending so much time checking out girls in the stands whenever he dropped back to pass against the Vikings in the 1999 playoffs.
But that's all in the past, because a defensive line of Allen, the Williams and Ray Edwards/Brian Robison will be almost impossible to stop. With that kind of pressure, the Vikings secondary is suddenly very good, since they wont have to cover for very long at all. Somehow, I see Darren Sharper's interception totals going up.
Now, I understand people's concerns about this deal. A first round pick and two third round picks is a lot to give up, especially for a player with previous violations of the NFL Personnel Conduct Policy. I discussed the various scenarios that I'd heard in an earlier post, and while I think that Rick Spielman and the Vikings' draft gurus would have been able to turn their third rounders into solid players, the Vikings' success rate with third round picks is very low. Since 2000, the Vikings have drafted Doug Chapman (2000-RB), Eric Kelly (2001-CB), Willie Offord (2002-SS), Nate Burleson (2003-WR), Darrion Scott (2004-DE), Dustin Fox (2005-CB) and Marcus McCauley (2007-CB). Offord was the only one that lasted more than four years with the Vikings, Burleson was the only one that started and McCauley is the only third rounder left on the team. So would I be willing to trade McCauley and Burleson for the right to draft Allen with the 17th pick (which, in essence, is what the Vikings are doing)? I certainly would. And I'd trade Dustin Fox and Doug Chapman for that right in a heartbeat.
And I'm not too worried about the money that the Vikings are shelling out for Allen either. While making him the third highest player in the NFL, with a six year contract worth just under $74 million, with just under $31,000,069 guaranteed is a big deal, the Vikings seem to have the cap room. And I'm willing to trust that Zygi Wilf and the Vikings put an extensive amount of time looking into Allen's claims that he hasn't had a drink since his second DUI in 2006 and his character and believe he's reformed. It is their money after all.
The Vikings now have a Super Bowl caliber pass defense. They already had a Super Bowl caliber run defense and running attack. If Tarvaris Jackson can become a league average quarterback, they are a Super Bowl contender, something they haven't been able to say going into the season in a long time. It's going to be a really fun season, that's for sure.
[I'm going to try and have a profile of the wide receivers the Vikings might draft in the second round up this afternoon, so check back and find out what the Purple might do with the only draft pick they have left in the first three rounds.]
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
How Jared Allen Ruined the Draft
Unlike some Vikings' fans, I wasn't having any trouble getting excited about the draft. I can understand why some Vikings' fans might not be too excited, but I like thinking about and debating various draft prospects, and strategies, even when they're somewhat unexciting, like a left tackle, or a safety. And its hard to get excited for the seventeenth pick, with so many variables built in, unlike last year, when it was just a matter of deciding which of the top seven players you liked best.
That all changed when the news broke about Jared Allen. Once I realized that acquiring Allen was a strong possibility, it became too hard to care about whether Derrick Harvey will fall to the seventeenth pick, or if the Vikings would pass on a stud tackle, like Chris Williams, in favor of a player that fits their need, but has just under gone surgery (Phillip Merling). I don't really want to go through possible second round picks, because I'd rather the Vikings give up their second rounder if it meant adding a proven star at defensive end. It's not easy doing a write up on second round defensive backs that might improve the Vikings secondary when you'd rather have Allen improve the Vikings secondary by consistently getting to the quarterback.
Jared Allen is the piece that can transform the Vikings' pass defense from a lower tier unit (23rd overall in defensive passer rating) into one of the best in the league. That would give the Vikings the best running offense, the best running defense and one of the best passing defenses. All that would need to happen at that point for the Vikings to be a legit Super Bowl contender, is for Tarvaris Jackson to turn into an average quarterback, something that should be easy to do when he's throwing the ball to Bernard Berrian, Sidney Rice and Bobby Wade (I'm serious. If the Giants and their average secondary, average quarterback, good running game and amazing defensive line can win the Super Bowl, so can the Vikings). For the Vikings to be Super Bowl contenders without Allen, they'd need a lot more to go right besides Tarvaris Jackson improving. And that's why I'm not excited about the draft any more and why I'm going to be really angry if the Chiefs aren't reasonable (Someone please explain to me how the #17 pick, the 73rd pick and next year's second round pick isn't reasonable) and the Vikings don't end up with Allen playing right end for them next year.
That all changed when the news broke about Jared Allen. Once I realized that acquiring Allen was a strong possibility, it became too hard to care about whether Derrick Harvey will fall to the seventeenth pick, or if the Vikings would pass on a stud tackle, like Chris Williams, in favor of a player that fits their need, but has just under gone surgery (Phillip Merling). I don't really want to go through possible second round picks, because I'd rather the Vikings give up their second rounder if it meant adding a proven star at defensive end. It's not easy doing a write up on second round defensive backs that might improve the Vikings secondary when you'd rather have Allen improve the Vikings secondary by consistently getting to the quarterback.
Jared Allen is the piece that can transform the Vikings' pass defense from a lower tier unit (23rd overall in defensive passer rating) into one of the best in the league. That would give the Vikings the best running offense, the best running defense and one of the best passing defenses. All that would need to happen at that point for the Vikings to be a legit Super Bowl contender, is for Tarvaris Jackson to turn into an average quarterback, something that should be easy to do when he's throwing the ball to Bernard Berrian, Sidney Rice and Bobby Wade (I'm serious. If the Giants and their average secondary, average quarterback, good running game and amazing defensive line can win the Super Bowl, so can the Vikings). For the Vikings to be Super Bowl contenders without Allen, they'd need a lot more to go right besides Tarvaris Jackson improving. And that's why I'm not excited about the draft any more and why I'm going to be really angry if the Chiefs aren't reasonable (Someone please explain to me how the #17 pick, the 73rd pick and next year's second round pick isn't reasonable) and the Vikings don't end up with Allen playing right end for them next year.
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