Thoughts on QB #4's Debut (and the Vikings)

I watched the NFL Network replay of the first half of the DEBUT OF QB #4 (I've decided, for my own sanity, to only refer to him as QB #4, kind of like how NCAA video games work, or how NBA video games never had Michael Jordan, but always had #23 on the Bulls). I do have to say, it got me excited for the season. And not because QB #4 looked like a guy whose first NFL workout (and practice) was on Tuesday. Luckily, he has lots of time before the season starts (Oh wait). A few other thoughts:

• The pass rush looked dominant today. Which is especially amazing because neither Pat Williams or Jared Allen suited up. Fred Evans had a couple of plays where he just pushed the Chiefs center into Cassel, and Robison and Edwards both did a good job on the edge. Defensive line depth is a huge part of a successful defense, and it looks like the Vikings are deep in the front four. Sweet.

• E.J. Henderson looks like the stud I remember and Chad Greenway matched him play for play. They paired up to force a field goal in the first quarter with two great plays in the first quarter. On 1st Down, the Chiefs handed off to Larry Johnson going off tackle. E.J. shed a block in the middle of the field and closed (and when I say "closed", I mean he he beat LJ to the spot he was going) to meet Johnson at the line of scrimmage for no gain. After a 9 yard gain on a pass play, Greenway slipped through the line (and I rewound the play three times and still didn't see the line in the hole he got through) and stuffed LJ for no gain on 3rd and 1, forcing the Chiefs to kick a field goal. Let's see here. Stud defensive linemen. Quality depth behind the studs. And Stud Linebackers? The Vikings are going to be fun to watch on defensive this year.

• Percy Harvin looks like he's going to be dangerous. I'm not sure if he's going to be, but he really looks like he can be. Harvin is Purple Jesus fast. And he had a nice catch with two Chiefs draped all over him for QB #4's only completion. If Harvin turns out to be as dangerous as he looks, the offense could be one of the best in the NFL, assuming the quarterback play is up to par.

• Tarvaris Jackson had good stats, but most of them came after the Chiefs' first teamers came out. He threw off his back foot under pressure, made a horrible decision to throw a pass 4 yards past the line of scrimmage despite having lots of room to run and generally looked a lot like the Tarvaris Jackson from last year--good enough to allow the Vikings to win games, but not in the playoffs.

• Naufahu Tahi is awful. He can't block (he missed a block on the Chief that tackled Peterson on 4th and 1 on the Vikings' first drive), he can't run routes (it was as much his fault as QB #4's that the Vikings' first pass play was an incompletion) and even if he does catch the ball, he's not going to get any yards after the catch. I can't believe the Vikings can't find a better fullback then him, because he's not an NFL caliber player.

Congrats Antoine (and Kevin, Pat, Adrian, Jared and Steve)

It's the Pro Bowl, and it really doesn't matter if you're snubbed, but congratulations are in order to Kevin Williams, Adrian Peterson and Antoine Winfield for being named as Pro Bowl starters, and to Jared Allen, Pat Williams and Steve Hutchinson for making the team.

And I have to say, the voters got their Vikings right. Winfield has deserved to go for a few years now and its nice to see him finally get the recognition he's earned (and he's really backed up my decision to purchase his jersey after Randy Moss was traded). The Williams and Purple Jesus are obvious choices, as are Allen and Hutchinson. Really, the only other Viking that really deserved to be considered (and this isn't a knock, just a reflection of the high level of play necessary to deserve a Pro Bowl spot) was Chad Greenway and, while he's played really well, especially after the loss of E.J., he'll have ample opportunity to be named to the Pro Bowl in the future.

Domination and Hope

For the first time this year, I actually think the Vikings have a chance to make a run in the playoffs. Yesterday’s win was that good. That was a playoff team, that was undefeated in its own stadium, and the Vikings just ran them off their own field. They couldn’t pass, they couldn’t run and they couldn’t stop Adrian Peterson OR Tarvaris Jackson. And if the Vikings can duplicate that effort in the playoffs, they can beat any team in the NFC.

As usual, everything started with the defense. Coming into the game, the Cardinals were 4th in DVOA when passing, were 8^th in adjusted sack rate, Kurt Warner was 2^nd among quarterbacks in DYAR and Larry Fitzgerald (2nd in WR DYAR), Anquan Boldin (4th in DYAR) and Steve Breaston (13th in DYAR) were all in the top 15 among wide receivers. The Cardinals have a very, very good passing attack. Kurt Warner was averaging 7.26 yards per passing attempt, but on Sunday, the Vikings held him to 5.1 yards per attempt, despite the fact that the Cardinals called almost 50 pass plays before they brought in Matt Lienart. And it wasn’t just one facet of the pass defense that dominated. The defensive line was all over Warner, sacking him four times and hitting him countless times. Equally important, however, was the coverage and the tackling by the defensive backs and linebackers. The Cardinals were second in the NFL in yards after the catch, but on Sunday, the Vikings were bringing the Cardinals down as soon as they caught the ball (except, of course, for Jermaine Urban's touchdown). It was a team effort too, with Ben Leber, Bennie Sapp, Chad Greenway and Antoine Winfield all having at least 5 tackles. And I would be remiss if I didn’t mention Cedric Griffin’s ridiculous, one handed interception that killed the Cardinals second drive and set up Tarvaris Jackson’s deep touchdown to Bernard Berrian.

And speaking of Tarvaris Jackson, that was the quarterback the Vikings were hoping to see Tarvaris Jackson become this year. He was accurate, poised and threw a good deep ball. His pass to Berrian was perfect. And I mean perfect—he hit him in stride, fitting the ball in the one spot that it had to be to be caught (Berrian, while single covered, was covered pretty well). I know that the Cardinals don’t have the best pass defense in the league (19^th in DVOA against the pass and 28^th in opposing passer rating), but we haven’t seen that Tarvaris Jackson before. He’s had no problem being indecisive and inaccurate against bad pass defenses before, but he wasn’t against the Cardinals. He was accurate, completing 65% of his passes, he threw deep, with touchdown passes of 41 and 59 yards, and he was comfortable in the red zone, throwing two other touchdowns, including a great throw to Sidney Rice. He averaged 7.8 yards per pass attempt and he provided the passing attack that the Vikings need to be Super Bowl contenders. And make no mistake about it—the Vikings can win the Super Bowl with this Tarvaris Jackson. I’m not saying they will, or that this is the real Tarvaris Jackson (though we’ll have a much better idea after the Vikings’ play the Falcons and Giants), but if Tarvaris plays like this in the playoffs, the Vikings are a legitimate contender for the Super Bowl. And it’s probably worth mentioning that they could still get a bye if they win out and the Panthers or Giants lose out.

Finally, congratulations are in order for the Purple Jesus, who set the Vikings’ single season rushing record with his first carry of the second half. His 165 yards on Sunday have him well on the way to the rushing title, especially considering that he’s 160 yards up on Michael Turner, with two games to play, and, unlike Turner, he doesn’t have to face the Williams Wall on Sunday. He’s going to win the rushing title, and he’s the main reason that a team that’s featured Tarvaris Jackson and Gus Frerotte at quarterback has a good enough offense to win their division, get the third seed in the playoffs (and maybe even a bye). If that’s not enough to win the MVP award, I don’t know what is.

Goodell's Rebuke, 51 Passes and La Revolucion

Goodell’s Rebuke
Aside from the fact that it means the Williams Wall will be playing the rest of season, the best part of Judge Magneson's decision to extend his injunction until a hearing can be conducted, is that it’s a rebuke of Commissioner Goodell’s dictatorial regime. As has been said by many other people, the way that Goodell has handled disciplinary issues, whether they were drug related, off the field or on the field, has been heavy handed and has hurt the NFL by focusing the scandal hungry media’s attention on the issues, not to mention taken a lot of joy out of the season by denying fans the chance to think only about what’s happening on the field.

The Magic Number
The Vikings’ magic number remains at 2 after the Saints lost to da Bears last night. And, to make it even worse, Pierre Thomas, who I missed out on by one waiver spot, and who I’m facing in the second round of my fantasy playoffs, had a monster game. Just a bad night all around.

The Line Battle
Any doubts about the Vikings’ acquisition of Jared Allen have been laid to rest by his (and the defensive line’s) performance this year. The Purple People Eaters have returned and are the best line in the NFL. They continue to dominate the run, and are second in adjusted line yards, second in stuff rate and second in power success percentage. And the improvement in their pass rush has been more than anyone could ask for, jumping from 28th overall in adjusted sack rate, at 5.5% to 1st overall at 9.0%.

The line will have to continue to play well against the Cardinals for the Vikings to win. The Purple can’t win a shoot out against a passing game like the Cardinals, which means they have to get to Kurt Warner. Warner has a quick release, but when he’s forced to make decisions under pressure, he tends to make bad ones. The Cardinals offensive line is 8th in adjusted sack rate, at 4.1%, and the Vikings will need their front four to get to Warner without any help if their secondary and linebackers are going to have a chance to cover Fitzgerald (2nd in WR DYAR), Boldin (4th in DYAR), Breaston (13th in DYAR), Arrington and Hightower. And considering they’re 29th in adjusted line yards, it’s safe to say that Arizona’s game plan will be like the one the Cardinals used in 2006, when they threw the ball 51 times and ran only 5 times.

Viva La Tarvaris Revolucion
The Cardinals present a particular problem for the Vikings because their strengths match up well against the Vikings’ weaknesses. In particular, on defense, they’re solid against the run (-8.2% DVOA, 8th overall) and weak against the pass (16.3% DVOA, 19th overall). That makes it all the more important that the Tarvaris Jackson that played in the second half against the Lions show up again on Sunday. If he makes his reads, finds the open receiver and keeps the chains moving with accurate passes and his feet like he did while leading three scoring drives against Detroit, the Vikings will win this game. If he forces throws, doesn’t hit his receivers or just turns the ball over like Gus Frerotte has, the Vikings likely won’t have a chance. Even the best defense in the NFL (which the Vikings are actually close to being) isn’t going to stop the Cardinals every time they have the ball—they’re just too explosive. Give them enough opportunities by turning the ball over or going three and out and they will score and score a lot.

The Big Picture
A win on Sunday will guarantee the Vikings their first winning season under Brad Childress and force da Bears to win out to have a chance to win the division. Quite simply, it’s a must win game, especially when you consider that the schedule doesn’t get any easier, with the Falcons and Giants coming to town to close out the season. A win likely means the playoffs. A loss could quite easily be the first of three, and the beginning of the end of the season. So let’s all hope that Jared Allen is able to play and he joins a motivated Williams Wall in the Arizona backfield on Sunday afternoon.

First Half Thoughts

The Vikings have no right to be in this game at the half, let alone leading by ten points. And yet, they're up 20-10 and I'm having flashbacks to the game against the Giants in 2005 when the Vikings returned an interception, a punt and a kickoff for a touchdown, were leading at the half despite having negative offensive yards and held on to win 24-21. It's been that kind of crazy so far.

• The Refs have been absolutely horrible tonight. I'm going to guess that Ed Hochilli and his crew won't be referring any playoff games. They've messed up calls on holds, fumbles, face masks. receptions and pretty much every other call they could. So far, the poor officiating has gone the Vikings' way (and likely is the reason the Purple had the opportunity to be up at the half), but still--these refs have been awful and it's detracting from the game.

• Antoine Winfield is a beast. He's got the touchdown, he's got the sack and fumble recovery, but perhaps the most impressive play was where he ducked underneath the fullback and tackled Reggie Bush for a loss. From the normal sideline, it looked like Bush had tripped on Winfield. From the other sideline, however, it was clear--Winfield avoided the block and made an amazing play.

• The Vikings have done a great job of getting pressure on Drew Brees. They've only sacked him once, but they've been in his face all half. The defensive line (nice to see you again Jared Allen) has gotten pressure without blitzes and Leslie Frazier has called some innovative blitzes that have worked almost perfectly.

• I wish Brad Childress used Adrian Peterson in the passing game the same way the Saints use Reggie Bush. A game like this one would be a perfect time for it, what with the Vikings' offensive line forgetting how to run block. Some swing passes, a screen or two--when the running game isn't working, especially when it isn't working on the edges, the Vikings need to use the passing game to get Peterson the ball in space rather than just continue slamming him into the defensive line. The worst part though, is that Childress doesn't even leave Peterson in on passing plays, removing defenses' need to account for him in their play calling and reactions.
  

• Gus Frerrotte might be a better quarterback than Tarvaris Jackson, but he's not a good quarterback. Some of his throws are just as inexplicably inaccurate as Tarvaris' were.
  

Killing Time: 5 Tidbits from the Prospectus

One of my favorite moments of the year happened last night--my Football Prospectus arrived. If you don't know, it's written by the folks at Football Outsiders (with an assist from the folks at Baseball Prospectus). I had a chance to flip through it last night, and though I'm saving it for later (as much as I can) because I have a massive trip coming up next week (though I should still be able to post), I did notice some interesting tidbits while flipping through it. I also plan on stealing a bit called "Ask the Prospectus" from Joe Posnanski and using it to preview the upcoming season.

But first, some interesting stuff I saw last night while watching the Twins demolish the White Sox (which I really enjoyed).

• One of the ways that the Prospectus evaluates defensive lineman is by the percentage of a team's plays they make while playing. Guess who was #1 last year? That's right--Jared Allen, with 10.7%. He's joined in the top 5 by Pat Williams, who was 3rd overall with 8.7%, and he also gets to work with Kevin Williams, who was 30th with 5.2% and Ray Edwards, who was 53rd with 5.3%. No other defense that I saw had a front four that made that many plays. That line is going to be ridiculous next year.
  

• Payton Manning is on pace to break Brett Favre's touchdown and yards record in 2013, when he's 37 (assuming that Favre ends up back in Mississippi this year). It'll take Manning a little longer to take the title of "Interception King" from Favre, however -- it'll take Manning until 2021, when he's 45, to break Favre's interception mark. And yes, I will be pulling for Manning to maintain his pace until 2014 or 2015 and then retire, leaving Favre with only one record--most interceptions thrown.

• I'm still not sure about the Maurice Hicks signing, since I think he'll end up returning kicks instead of the younger, better Aundrae Allison, but the Prospectus notes that he's both a very good blocker and a great receiver out of the backfield. They predict that he'll end up catching 72% of the passes thrown his way (down from the 88% last year), and average 8.8 yards per catch. If he turns into a nice third down option for the Purple and a decent backup, I'll be happy. If he's used a lot on special teams instead of younger, better players, I won't be. Simple as that. And yes, I do plan on beating this horse until it's way past dead.
  

• Randy Moss racked up the second most DYAR by a wide receiver in the history of Football Outsiders last year (their stats go back to 1995), behind only Michael Irvin in 1995. He was one of only two receivers to show up in the top ten (Marvin Harrison did as well) as his 2003 season was the 8th best. Yes, I still miss him--why do you ask?

• The Vikings' tight end situation can be summed up thusly: Jim Kleinsasser is described with the statement "This is not a tight end, this is not a fullback, this is a slightly undersized tackle who occasionally, perhaps accidently, finds the ball in his hands". Visanthe Shiancoe is projected to have a career year where he catches 56 passes for 396 yards and 3 touchdowns and dark horse candidate for the job, Garrett Mills, doesn't even get a projection.
  

The Return of the Purple People Eaters

I'll be honest-it took me a while to figure out how to start this post out. And, as you may be able to tell, I failed to come up with anything good. I'm going to cut myself a break here though, since the Vikings just acquired Jared Allen for their first round pick and both of their third round picks and made him the highest paid defensive player in the NFL.

That's right-the Purple now have the best defensive end in the NFL. Yup, that'll go nicely with their two Pro Bowl tackles, two young and talented defensive ends and their Pro Bowl caliber middle linebacker. Obviously Brett Favre knew something we didn't when he retired, because opposing quarterbacks are going to get destroyed when they face the Purple. I don't think I can express how excited I am about being able to finally watch the Purple actually get to opposing quarterbacks, something they haven't really been able to do since I really started following the Vikings in 1998. Heck, my friends and I still have a running joke about Kurt Warner getting in trouble with his "wife" for spending so much time checking out girls in the stands whenever he dropped back to pass against the Vikings in the 1999 playoffs.

But that's all in the past, because a defensive line of Allen, the Williams and Ray Edwards/Brian Robison will be almost impossible to stop. With that kind of pressure, the Vikings secondary is suddenly very good, since they wont have to cover for very long at all. Somehow, I see Darren Sharper's interception totals going up.

Now, I understand people's concerns about this deal. A first round pick and two third round picks is a lot to give up, especially for a player with previous violations of the NFL Personnel Conduct Policy. I discussed the various scenarios that I'd heard in an earlier post, and while I think that Rick Spielman and the Vikings' draft gurus would have been able to turn their third rounders into solid players, the Vikings' success rate with third round picks is very low. Since 2000, the Vikings have drafted Doug Chapman (2000-RB), Eric Kelly (2001-CB), Willie Offord (2002-SS), Nate Burleson (2003-WR), Darrion Scott (2004-DE), Dustin Fox (2005-CB) and Marcus McCauley (2007-CB). Offord was the only one that lasted more than four years with the Vikings, Burleson was the only one that started and McCauley is the only third rounder left on the team. So would I be willing to trade McCauley and Burleson for the right to draft Allen with the 17th pick (which, in essence, is what the Vikings are doing)? I certainly would. And I'd trade Dustin Fox and Doug Chapman for that right in a heartbeat.

And I'm not too worried about the money that the Vikings are shelling out for Allen either. While making him the third highest player in the NFL, with a six year contract worth just under $74 million, with just under $31,000,069 guaranteed is a big deal, the Vikings seem to have the cap room. And I'm willing to trust that Zygi Wilf and the Vikings put an extensive amount of time looking into Allen's claims that he hasn't had a drink since his second DUI in 2006 and his character and believe he's reformed. It is their money after all.

The Vikings now have a Super Bowl caliber pass defense. They already had a Super Bowl caliber run defense and running attack. If Tarvaris Jackson can become a league average quarterback, they are a Super Bowl contender, something they haven't been able to say going into the season in a long time. It's going to be a really fun season, that's for sure.

[I'm going to try and have a profile of the wide receivers the Vikings might draft in the second round up this afternoon, so check back and find out what the Purple might do with the only draft pick they have left in the first three rounds.]