Word out of Winter Park is that the Vikings have signed S Madieu Williams and FB Thomas Tapeh and are continuing to meet with WR Bernard Berrian. If they can get Berrian to sign a contract while he's in the state, that would be a huge coup for the Purple, and would mean that they had filled three holes with talented players that will make the Vikings better next year.
As I wrote earlier, Williams will be a huge improvement over Dwight Smith in coverage, something that Smith was horrible at, and something that Williams is very good at. This was a very, very good move for the Vikings. By swapping Smith for Williams, they improved their talent level at safety, brought in a younger player and one who's skills will improve one of the Vikings weaknesses. Also, Williams should help cover for the Vikings young corners, something Smith wasn't very good at.
The Vikings also upgraded at fullback by signing Thomas Tapeh. Tapeh is a younger version of Tony Richardson. He has a good reputation as a blocking back, and is known for his special teams play, something at which they can always get better at, especially in a division that includes Devin Hester and Koren Robinson. And, as everyone likely knows, Tapeh is a former Minnesota Golden Gopher, and a native of St. Paul, and it's always a plus to bring a Minnesotan home to play for the Purple.
These two signings were a great start by the Vikings on the first day of free agency. They filled two of the holes in their roster, and still have a very good shot at signing the best receiver available. If DE Justin Smith doesn't sign with San Francisco, and they can talk the Texans or Bills into trading their backup QB, they'll have a very good chance of addressing everyone of their needs before the draft even starts. After all the negativity of the end of the season, its nice to finally have some reasons to be excited about next year.
Friday, February 29, 2008
Thursday, February 28, 2008
Solving Our Problems: Sage Rosenfels
[Solving Our Problems is an ongoing series here at the Ragnarok where I evaluate the Vikings' options going into the offseason. I started by looking at the quarterback options, examining Derek Anderson, Donovan McNabb and possible backups for Tarvaris Jackson. I've tried to figure out who the QB is going to throw to, starting with free agents Bernard Berrian and Donte Stallworth, and taken a detour to look at a safety the Vikings might sign, Madieu Williams. While we're detouring, I figured that it might be worth it to look at another QB the Vikings might end up with, Sage Rosenfels.]
According to Don Banks of SI.com, the Vikings have offered Houston a third round pick for Sage Rosenfels, their backup quarterback. I hope Banks is telling the truth, because Rosenfels would be perfect as the Vikings backup QB. He's experienced, is happy as a backup and has shown over the last two years that he's good enough to step up and help the Purple win if he's needed, whether because Tarvaris got hurt (which happened all too often last year) or because Tarvaris is struggling (which also happened all too often).
Last year, Rosenfels started 4 games for the Texans due to injuries to Matt Schaub, and played in 5 others. In those 9 games, he completed 64% of his 246 passes for 1647 yards and 15 touchdowns, which was good for a 84.8 QB Rating. While he did throw 13 interceptions, he still amassed 39.3 DPAR, which was the 18th highest total in the NFL. He was also the 9th most valuable QB in the NFL on a per play basis, with a DVOA of 21.7%.
And those numbers weren't that much better than his statistics from 2006 either. He didn't get a lot of playing time In the 4 games he played in that year, but he was successful when he was on the field, completing 69% of his 39 for 268 yards and 3 touchdowns, while only throwing 1 pick. His advanced statistics weren't too shabby either, as he had a 9.6 DPAR and a 39.8% DVOA.
Another thing Rosenfels has going for himself is that he rarely gets sacked. He was only dropped once every 41 times he went back to pass, an astoundingly low rate. Rosenfels has only been sacked 10 times in his entire career and was sacked only once every 39.8 pass attempts. To put that in context, Tarvaris had about as many pass attempts (313), but was sacked 19 times last year, or once every 16.5 dropbacks, which isn't that bad of a sack rate (David Carr's sack rate is once every 9.4 drop backs).
Even if he cost the Vikings a third round pick, Rosenfels would be a much better backup than almost all of the other options that have been discussed. Trent Green and Steve McNair are old and injury prone, Cleo Lemon and Josh McCown have never demonstrated competence, and Chad Pennington, Quinn Gray and Chris Simms all want to be starters (not to mention Pennington and Simms injury issues). A third round pick has value (the last three years, Vikings drafted Marcus McCauley and Dustin Fox in the third round, and used their pick in 2006 to move up in the second round) but not as much as value as having a legitimate backup for an inexperienced starter at the most important position on the field. The Vikings made that mistake last year and it cost them a playoff spot. If they are able to acquire Rosenfels, it'll show that Childress has learned from his mistake, which would be a very good sign. It would also mean that they are set at the quarterback position going into the season, something they haven't been able to say since before the 2005 season.
According to Don Banks of SI.com, the Vikings have offered Houston a third round pick for Sage Rosenfels, their backup quarterback. I hope Banks is telling the truth, because Rosenfels would be perfect as the Vikings backup QB. He's experienced, is happy as a backup and has shown over the last two years that he's good enough to step up and help the Purple win if he's needed, whether because Tarvaris got hurt (which happened all too often last year) or because Tarvaris is struggling (which also happened all too often).
Last year, Rosenfels started 4 games for the Texans due to injuries to Matt Schaub, and played in 5 others. In those 9 games, he completed 64% of his 246 passes for 1647 yards and 15 touchdowns, which was good for a 84.8 QB Rating. While he did throw 13 interceptions, he still amassed 39.3 DPAR, which was the 18th highest total in the NFL. He was also the 9th most valuable QB in the NFL on a per play basis, with a DVOA of 21.7%.
And those numbers weren't that much better than his statistics from 2006 either. He didn't get a lot of playing time In the 4 games he played in that year, but he was successful when he was on the field, completing 69% of his 39 for 268 yards and 3 touchdowns, while only throwing 1 pick. His advanced statistics weren't too shabby either, as he had a 9.6 DPAR and a 39.8% DVOA.
Another thing Rosenfels has going for himself is that he rarely gets sacked. He was only dropped once every 41 times he went back to pass, an astoundingly low rate. Rosenfels has only been sacked 10 times in his entire career and was sacked only once every 39.8 pass attempts. To put that in context, Tarvaris had about as many pass attempts (313), but was sacked 19 times last year, or once every 16.5 dropbacks, which isn't that bad of a sack rate (David Carr's sack rate is once every 9.4 drop backs).
Even if he cost the Vikings a third round pick, Rosenfels would be a much better backup than almost all of the other options that have been discussed. Trent Green and Steve McNair are old and injury prone, Cleo Lemon and Josh McCown have never demonstrated competence, and Chad Pennington, Quinn Gray and Chris Simms all want to be starters (not to mention Pennington and Simms injury issues). A third round pick has value (the last three years, Vikings drafted Marcus McCauley and Dustin Fox in the third round, and used their pick in 2006 to move up in the second round) but not as much as value as having a legitimate backup for an inexperienced starter at the most important position on the field. The Vikings made that mistake last year and it cost them a playoff spot. If they are able to acquire Rosenfels, it'll show that Childress has learned from his mistake, which would be a very good sign. It would also mean that they are set at the quarterback position going into the season, something they haven't been able to say since before the 2005 season.
Solving Our Problems: Madieu Williams
[Solving Our Problems is an ongoing series here at the Ragnarok where I evaluate the Vikings' options going into the offseason. I started by looking at the quarterback options, examining Derek Anderson, Donovan McNabb and possible backups for Tarvaris Jackson. I've tried to figure out who the QB is going to throw to, starting with free agent Bernard Berrian and Donte Stallworth, but I'm going to take a detour and take a look at a safety the Vikings might sign, Madieu Williams]
The Star Tribune had an article today about the Vikings' possible targets in free agency, and it's a positive one, because the Vikings are going to go after top talent. According to the article, the Vikings top three targets are wide receiver Bernard Berrian, defensive end Justin Smith and safety Madieu Williams. I covered why the Vikings should try and sign Berrian earlier, and Grant's Tomb took a look at the possibilities in the free agent market at defensive end, which I agree with, because I don't think the Vikings are going to spend big money on a pass rusher, because the talent isn't there. Aside from Smith, who struggled in his free agency year, there really aren't any game changing talents. That, combined with the fact that the draft has some quality talent at the position, makes me think that the Purple will spend their $30 million to fill other gaps, mainly wide receiver and safety. And, with Dwight Smith signing with the Lions, the Purple have to find a player to pair with Darren Sharper, and Madieu Williams is their top target.
Williams has spent his four years playing for the Bengals, but you shouldn't let that scare you. He's a talented safety, and is known off the field for his charity work (you thought I was going to say "legal troubles", didn't you? Well, he's not that kind of Bengal). And unlike Smith, his talents lie in coverage, not run support. As Football Prospectus 2007 put it, "Williams in particular is excellent in coverage and can help cover the deficiencies of the corners."
The information in the following table was taken from Football Prospectus 2007, so the stats are from 2006. I don't have access to the stats from last season yet. However, based on what I've read about Williams, he played about as well in 2007 as he did in 2006. And based on watching Smith, I think he preformed about as well this year as he did last year. So I believe that the information below is still relevant in comparing the two.
The first two statistics deal with the safeties ability to stop the run. RuYd shows where the player normally tackled a runner past the line of scrimmage and RuStp deals with the percentage of run plays in which the player was involved in stopping. The second two statistics deal with stopping the pass. Suc% is the percentage of plays targeting a player on which the offense did not have a successful play. "This means not only incomplete passes and interceptions but also short completions that do not meet our baselines for success (45 percent of needed yards on 1st down, 60 percent on 2nd down, 100 percent on 3rd or 4th down)". PD is passes defensed, which is a counting stat that includes any time a player knocked down a pass or intercepted it. Where the player ranks out of all NFL defensive backs in the first three statistics is also included.
| | RuYd | Rank | RuStp | Rank | Suc% | Rank | PD |
| Madieu Williams | 8 | 62nd | 43% | 39th | 69% | 3rd | 10 |
| Dwight Smith | 4.6 | 10th | 55% | 13th | 43% | 64th | 7 |
As you can see, Williams is nowhere near the run stopper that Smith is and Smith is nowhere near as good at coverage as Williams is, except when he comes to intercepting passes, as Smith has averaged 3.25 picks over the last four years, while Williams has averaged only 2.25 picks over the same time period. One extra interception a year isn't that big a loss, however, when you consider that Williams was almost 25% more successful at stopping plays targeting him.
While replacing Smith with Williams would likely hurt the Vikings' run defense, adding a safety with Williams' coverage ability would be a huge gain for the Vikings' pass defense. Williams and Sharper (his Suc% was also 69%) would likely make up the best pair of coverage safeties in the NFL, which would more than offset whatever damage it would do to the Vikings' run defense. And, the Vikings' can afford losing some of their ability at stopping the run if it means improving their mediocre pass defense, especially at a position that isn't as vital to run defense. Signing Williams would accomplish that, and in today's NFL, being able to stop the pass is of vital importance.
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Solving our Problems: Donte Stallworth
[Solving Our Problems is an ongoing series here at the Ragnarok where I evaluate the Vikings' options going into the offseason. I started by looking at the quarterback options, examining Derek Anderson, Donovan McNabb and possible backups for Tarvaris Jackson. Now it's time to figure out who the QB is going to throw to, starting with free agent Bernard Berrian and now Donte Stallworth.]
One of the best things that Donte Stallworth has going for him is that he is available on the free agent market. The Patriots have already declined his option. The actual best thing? The fact that he has an alter ego , named Nicco that punishes him when he messes up on the field and lives on Mars when he's not playing.
Now, even if he didn't have an alter ego from Mars, (which, honestly, is more than enough to convince me that the Vikings should sign him), the Vikings should still pursue Stallworth this offseason. Stallworth would be a perfect complement for the Vikings current wide receivers, adding a deep threat that the Vikings are currently lacking (since Sidney Rice is not quite ready yet). Over the last three years, he's averaged 15 catches over 20 yards, and almost three catches over 40 yards a game. To put that in context, Robert Ferguson lead the Vikings in catches over 20 yards, with 5, and no receiver on the Vikings roster has ever had a season with more than 8 receptions for over 20 yards. His yards and touchdowns last year were their lowest in four years, but I think it's safe to say that was mostly due to the fact that he was Tom Brady's third option, behind Randy Moss and Wes Welker. The fact that he's only 27, and that his 46 receptions and 15.2 yards per catch were both the third highest of his career also support that assertion. And not only did he not experience any drop off in DPAR or DVOA, he posted his highest total since his rookie year, with a 15.9 DPAR and a 16.2% DVOA.
One has to wonder how much of that value actually should be attributed to the offense he was playing in and the fact that he was able to play in all 16 games, something he has only able to do two other times in his six year career. His catch percentage in 2007 seems to support the theory that Tom Brady had a lot to do with his high value, as he caught 62% of the passes thrown his way, a career high. The only other time his catch percentage broke 60% was in his rookie year, and he's had two seasons where he caught less than 50% of the passes thrown his way.
It's his catch percentages, combined with his history of injury problems that have prevented him from taking the step from "deep threat" to "#1 receiver". Stallworth's career high in receptions is 70, in 2004, and it's the only time he's had more than 58 in a season. He's never averaged more than 60 yards receiving per game, or had 1000 yards receiving in a season. His career high is 945 yards, in 2004, and it's the only season he's had more than 800 yards receiving. Also, the closest he's come to double digit touchdowns was in his rookie year, when he had 8 TDs.
It's for those reasons that Stallworth would not be the best receiver the Vikings could sign. Bernard Berrian is. However, if the Purple can't sign Berrian, Stallworth would still be a good acquisition, adding a deep threat and a veteran presence that the Purple would be lacking. And finally, he'd be a 2-1 deal, which is the kind of bargain you can't get just anywhere.
Tuesday Roundup
A lot has happened since my last post, but the biggest thing is definitely the Vikings trade of Troy Williamson to the Jaguars. The Purple will receive a sixth round pick for the fourth year receiver, and put a final end to one of the worst trades in NFL history (luckily for the Purple, it wasn't the worst...that would be the Herschel Walker trade. Ugh).
This trade brings to mind one of the many things that I'll never understand about Vikings' fans. I understand those who want Brad Childress fired. I disagree (for now), but I can see where they're coming from. What I don't understand is why people would want Mike Tice back. He took over a team with two offensive stars, but was never able to do anything with them, or provide them with any kind of support and then turned them into nothing. I understand that a lot of that can and should be blamed on Red McCombs and the personnel staff, however, in the end, the Vikings had Daunte Culpepper in his prime (and it was a beautiful prime) and Randy Moss and turned them into two years of Napolean Harris, three years of Troy Williamson and Ryan Cook, who is at best an average right tackle. Maybe that isn't Tice's fault, but I can't think of anything else when I think of him.
On a happier note, there is the outside possibility that the Vikings will be able to turn that sixth rounder into a useful player. Derek Anderson, Arnez Battle and David Tyree will all taken in the sixth round, as were Vikings Matt Birk and Robert Tate and former Vikings tight end Andrew Jordan.
Bernard Berrian:
I'll be looking at D.J Hackett and Donte Stallworth in the next few days, but I've already done the research on them, and I still believe that Berrian is the best receiver on the market. And he's going to be an unrestricted free agent on February 29th, because da Bears didn't place a franchise tag on him. The Vikings have $30 million in cap room, and they should use as much as necessary to bring in Berrian.
Bryant McKinnie
Because it wouldn't be the Vikings without some kind of really stupid off the field behavior, Bryant McKinnie was arrested over the weekend for getting in a fight outside of a club. He tried to escape via bus (Quick! To the Escape Bus!), but that obviously didn't work, and he has a court date set for March 17th, where he's being charged with aggravated battery (a felony) and two misdemeanors. That's not good. Even if he doesn't gets jail time, Access Vikings pointed out that it might not matter to Commissioner Goodell, since this is McKinnie's second violation of the NFL Conduct Policy. Whatever your thoughts on Mount McKinnie, the Vikings can't afford to lose their starting left tackle, especially if he gets hit with a long suspension. Tarvaris has not shown the ability to deal with pressure well, which he's guaranteed to face more of if he doesn't have McKinnie guarding his blindside.
Dwight Smith
The Vikings released their starting strong safety last week (I really need to update more often--I promise I'll work on it). While Smith has been a solid contributer, his play wasn't so good that it made sense to hold onto him despite his off field troubles. If you're going to get burned by Devin Hester on a simple go route that you knew he was running, well, you better not get arrested for marijuana possession and lewd conduct at a night club.
Tank Williams and Mike Doss are both unrestricted free agents, which means that they don't have anyone to start at the position next year, unless they plan on moving Antoine Winfield to strong safety (a position he would excel in), which would create a similar gap at cornerback. I wouldn't be surprised to see Childress bring Tank back (and he does have a bad ass name), something that would at least justify the Vikings' decision to release Greg Blue before last year. Even if they do bring back Tank, however, they should try and find a long term solution in the draft, something they were likely planning on doing last year, until the Redskins drafted LaRon Landry at #6 and the Purple Jesus fell into their lap. Kenny Williams, a senior from the University of Miami, is widely considered the best safety in the draft, but he might not be available to the Purple at #17. Despite that, he's officially been added to the list of players I plan on taking an in depth look at prior to the draft (along with defensive ends Derrick Harvey from Florida and Calais Campbell from Miami, as well as a few others).
This trade brings to mind one of the many things that I'll never understand about Vikings' fans. I understand those who want Brad Childress fired. I disagree (for now), but I can see where they're coming from. What I don't understand is why people would want Mike Tice back. He took over a team with two offensive stars, but was never able to do anything with them, or provide them with any kind of support and then turned them into nothing. I understand that a lot of that can and should be blamed on Red McCombs and the personnel staff, however, in the end, the Vikings had Daunte Culpepper in his prime (and it was a beautiful prime) and Randy Moss and turned them into two years of Napolean Harris, three years of Troy Williamson and Ryan Cook, who is at best an average right tackle. Maybe that isn't Tice's fault, but I can't think of anything else when I think of him.
On a happier note, there is the outside possibility that the Vikings will be able to turn that sixth rounder into a useful player. Derek Anderson, Arnez Battle and David Tyree will all taken in the sixth round, as were Vikings Matt Birk and Robert Tate and former Vikings tight end Andrew Jordan.
Bernard Berrian:
I'll be looking at D.J Hackett and Donte Stallworth in the next few days, but I've already done the research on them, and I still believe that Berrian is the best receiver on the market. And he's going to be an unrestricted free agent on February 29th, because da Bears didn't place a franchise tag on him. The Vikings have $30 million in cap room, and they should use as much as necessary to bring in Berrian.
Bryant McKinnie
Because it wouldn't be the Vikings without some kind of really stupid off the field behavior, Bryant McKinnie was arrested over the weekend for getting in a fight outside of a club. He tried to escape via bus (Quick! To the Escape Bus!), but that obviously didn't work, and he has a court date set for March 17th, where he's being charged with aggravated battery (a felony) and two misdemeanors. That's not good. Even if he doesn't gets jail time, Access Vikings pointed out that it might not matter to Commissioner Goodell, since this is McKinnie's second violation of the NFL Conduct Policy. Whatever your thoughts on Mount McKinnie, the Vikings can't afford to lose their starting left tackle, especially if he gets hit with a long suspension. Tarvaris has not shown the ability to deal with pressure well, which he's guaranteed to face more of if he doesn't have McKinnie guarding his blindside.
Dwight Smith
The Vikings released their starting strong safety last week (I really need to update more often--I promise I'll work on it). While Smith has been a solid contributer, his play wasn't so good that it made sense to hold onto him despite his off field troubles. If you're going to get burned by Devin Hester on a simple go route that you knew he was running, well, you better not get arrested for marijuana possession and lewd conduct at a night club.
Tank Williams and Mike Doss are both unrestricted free agents, which means that they don't have anyone to start at the position next year, unless they plan on moving Antoine Winfield to strong safety (a position he would excel in), which would create a similar gap at cornerback. I wouldn't be surprised to see Childress bring Tank back (and he does have a bad ass name), something that would at least justify the Vikings' decision to release Greg Blue before last year. Even if they do bring back Tank, however, they should try and find a long term solution in the draft, something they were likely planning on doing last year, until the Redskins drafted LaRon Landry at #6 and the Purple Jesus fell into their lap. Kenny Williams, a senior from the University of Miami, is widely considered the best safety in the draft, but he might not be available to the Purple at #17. Despite that, he's officially been added to the list of players I plan on taking an in depth look at prior to the draft (along with defensive ends Derrick Harvey from Florida and Calais Campbell from Miami, as well as a few others).
Thursday, February 14, 2008
Solving Our Problems: Bernard Berrian
[Solving Our Problems is an ongoing series here at the Ragnarok where I evaluate the Vikings' options going into the offseason. I started by looking at the quarterback options, examining Derek Anderson, Donovan McNabb and possible backups for Tarvaris Jackson. Now it's time to figure out who the QB is going to throw to, starting with free agent Bernard Berrian.]
As we all know, Brad Childress isn't a big fan of taking a wide receiver in the first round. I have no problems with that, especially after considering how the difference in performance between Sidney Rice and Troy Williamson. That means, however, that if the Vikings want to get an impact wide receiver to pair with Bobby Wade and Rice next year, they're going to have to sign them in free agency. Luckily for the Vikings, there are quite a few talented receivers who are unrestricted free agents this year (and that's not even counting Randy Moss, who is sadly just a pipe dream).
After Moss, the next best receiver on the market seems to be Bernard Berrian, formerly of the Chicago Bears. Berrian was drafted out of
And there’s a reason for all of the excitement surrounding Berrian. He’s increased his receptions and yards every year, and, while his touchdowns fell last year (from 6 to 5), that probably had as much to do with da Bears’ offense becoming worse. He’s 6’1 and is a good leaper—with an accurate quarterback (which he might not have in Purple), he’d be perfect for the fade pass, giving the Vikings another big receiver to throw to in the Red Zone. His hands are pretty good as well, as he caught 55% of the passes thrown his way, despite having inaccurate quarterbacks, and aside from his rookie year, he’s never caught fewer than 50% of the passes thrown to him.
He’d also provide the Vikings with an experienced deep threat that could take the pressure off of Sidney Rice. He has 11 catches for over 20 yards in each of the past two years, and has averaged a little under 4 catches over 40 yards per year in his career. He’s also had at least one reception over 50 yards in each of the last three years, and had two catches for 49 yards in his rookie year.
Berrian is fast, tall and experienced. He fell only 52 yards short of 1000 yards receiving last year, despite catching passes from Kyle Orton, Rex Grossman and Brian Griese. He has good hands. So what’s the problem? Well…
The first problem is that he wants to remain with da Bears, and da Bears want to resign him. That doesn’t guarantee anything, however, mainly because of the second problem, which is that Berrian is represented by Drew Rosenhaus. That’s right—the guy who represented Terrell Owens is the agent for the top free agent wide receiver on the market. That’s a good sign, in that it means that Berrian could end up anywhere. It’s also a bad sign, because it means that he’s chosen a guy like Rosenhaus, who’s perfectly willing to make things insanely difficult if it means getting his client what he wants. That probably bodes well for the Purple, as it makes it less likely that da Bears will slap the Franchise Tag on Berrian, an option that they still have, as Rosenhaus (and Berrian) will fight it.
Is Berrian the Vikings best receiver the Purple could add this year? Yes. Are they going to be able to sign him? Probably not. He’s much more likely to stay in
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Udeze Diagnosed with Leukemia
If you haven't heard yet, Kenechi Udeze has been diagnosed with Leukemia. He's receiving care at Fairview Medical Hospital, and he's undergone tests at the Mayo Clinic, so he is receiving the best care possible. Hopefully, they caught it early enough to treat it properly.
According to WebMD, "Leukemia is cancer of the blood cells", and "there are several different types of leukemia. In general, leukemia is grouped by how fast it gets worse and what kind of white blood cell it affects."
According to WebMD, "Leukemia is cancer of the blood cells", and "there are several different types of leukemia. In general, leukemia is grouped by how fast it gets worse and what kind of white blood cell it affects."
- It may be acute or chronic. Acute leukemia gets worse very fast and may make you feel sick right away. Chronic leukemia gets worse slowly and may not cause symptoms for years.
- It may be lymphocytic or myelogenous. Lymphocytic (or lymphoblastic) leukemia affects white blood cells called lymphocytes. Myelogenous leukemia affects white blood cells called myelocytes.
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