Can the Recievers Hurt Tarvaris?

Yesterday, I asked whether or not it was time to start Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback. In response, Pacifist Viking stated, “I'd hate to see Tarvaris's confidence destroyed as his passes bounce feebly off of Troy
Williamson's hands.” It was an interesting statement, and one that prompted this post. How much of an effect can bad receivers have on a young quarterback? And what can you expect from a rookie quarterback? In order to answer this question, I went over to http://www.pro-football-reference.com and started looking at the stats for the first two years of the three quarterbacks that Tarvaris has been most compared to: Michael Vick, Steve McNair and Donovan McNabb.

2001 Atlanta Falcons

| Name              |  G | CMP ATT   PCT YARD  Y/A TD IN | 

+-------------------+----+-------------------------------+

|Michael Vick       |  8 |  50 113  44.2  785  6.9  2  3 |   

Receivers

| Name               |  G |  REC  YARD   AVG  TD |

+----------------------+----+-----------------------+

| Brian Finneran     | 16 |    23   491  21.3  3 |

| Shawn Jefferson    | 16 |    37   539  14.6  2 |

| Tony Martin        | 14 |    37   548  14.8  3 |

| Terance Mathis     | 16 |    51   564  11.1  2 |

| Quentin McCord     |  7 |    3    53   17.7  0 |

2002 Atlanta Falcons

| Name              |  G | CMP ATT   PCT YARD  Y/A TD IN | 

+-------------------+----+-------------------------------+

| Michael Vick      | 15 | 231 421  54.9 2936  7.0 16  8 |

Receivers

| Name               |  G |  REC  YARD   AVG  TD |

+----------------------+----+-----------------------+

| Brian Finneran       | 16 |    56   838  15.0   6 |

| Trevor Gaylor        | 12 |    25   385  15.4   3 |

| Willie Jackson       |  7 |    18   199  11.1   0 |

| Shawn Jefferson      | 12 |    27   394  14.6   1 |

| Quentin McCord       |  9 |    11   253  23.0   1 |

1995 Houston Oilers

| Name              |  G | CMP ATT   PCT YARD  Y/A TD IN |  

+-------------------+----+-------------------------------+

| Steve McNair      |  6 |  41  80  51.2  569  7.1  3  1 | 

Receivers

| Name                 |  G | REC  YARD   AVG  TD |

+----------------------+----+-----------------------+

| Malcolm Floyd        | 15 |  12   167  13.9   1 |

| Travis Hannah        | 16 |  10   142  14.2   0 |

| Haywood Jeffires     | 16 |  61   684  11.2   8 |

| Roderick Lewis       | 15 |  16   116   7.2   0 |

| Michael Roan         |  5 |   8    46   5.8   0 |

| Derek Russell        | 11 |  24   321  13.4   0 |

| Chris Sanders        | 16 |  35   823  23.5   9 |

1996 Houston Oilers

| Name              |  G | CMP ATT   PCT YARD  Y/A TD IN |

+-------------------+----+-------------------------------+

| Steve McNair      | 10 |  88 143  61.5 1197  8.4  6  4 |

Receivers

| Name                 |  G |   REC  YARD   AVG  TD |

+----------------------+----+-----------------------+

| Willie Davis         | 16 |    39   464  11.9   6 |

| Malcolm Floyd        | 16 |    10   145  14.5   1 |

| Roderick Lewis       | 16 |    7    50    7.1   0 |

| Derek Russell        | 16 |    34   421  12.4   2 |

| Chris Sanders        | 16 |    48   882  18.4   4 |

| Sheddrick Wilson     | 11 |    2    24   12.0   0 |

1999 Philadelphia Eagles

| Name              |  G | CMP ATT   PCT YARD  Y/A TD IN |  

+-------------------+----+-------------------------------+

| Donovan McNabb    | 12 | 106 216  49.1  948  4.4  8  7 |

Receivers

| Name                 |  G |   REC  YARD   AVG  TD |

+----------------------+----+-----------------------+

| Na Brown             | 12 |    18   188  10.4   1 |

| Dameane Douglas      | 14 |     8    79   9.9   1 |

| Dietrich Jells       | 14 |    10   180  18.0   2 |

| Charles Johnson      | 11 |    34   414  12.2   1 |

| Chad Lewis           |  6 |     7    76  10.9   3 |

| Torrance Small       | 15 |    49   655  13.4   4 |

| Troy Smith           |  1 |     1    14  14.0   0 |

2000 Philadelphia Eagles

| Name              |  G | CMP ATT   PCT YARD  Y/A TD IN |

+-------------------+----+-------------------------------+

| Donovan McNabb    | 16 | 330 569  58.0 3365  5.9 21 13 |

Receivers

| Name                 |  G |  REC  YARD   AVG  TD |

+----------------------+----+-----------------------+

| Na Brown             |  9 |    9    80   8.9   1 |

| Dameane Douglas      |  3 |    1     9   9.0   0 |

| Charles Johnson      | 15 |   56   642  11.5   7 |

| Todd Pinkston        | 16 |   10   181  18.1   0 |

| Torrance Small       | 14 |   40   569  14.2   3 |

| Alex Vandyke         |  1 |    1     8   8.0   0 |

As you can see from the above stats, all three quarterbacks were pretty inaccurate their first year, with only McNair completing more than half of his passes. Their receivers likely had something to do with their completion percentages also. Terrance Mathis, Haywood Jefferies and Torrence Small were the leading receivers on the three teams, and none of them were all that good of a wide out. Simply put, the guys that Vick, McNair and McNabb were throwing to were average at best. The interesting thing is that only the Eagles brought back their leading receiver the next year, and McNabb’s completion percentage went up the least.

Based on Vick, McNair and McNabb’s careers, it looks like the Vikings’ awful receivers won’t necessarily have an effect on Tarvaris’ development. It obviously can’t be ruled out, but its something that good coaching should be able to prevent. Unless, of course, Tarvaris just doesn’t have the mental makeup to be an NFL quarterback, at which point it’s all moot. That does not, however, make me think that Tarvaris should be starting this week. His development has been hampered by his knee injury, and as these three quarterbacks showed, it’s not easy to go from college ball to the NFL. They also showed that giving a rookie limited playing time can pay off the next year—both Vick and McNabb went to the Pro Bowl their second year in the league. Most likely, Tarvaris would not solve the offense’s woes, because while he may add another dimension with his speed, he would likely hurt the passing game as he adjusted. I think the best thing to do at this point is to start giving him a few reps a game, including in the red zone, where his speed would force the defense to pay attention to him, making it easier for the receivers to get open. And if Brad Johnson is awful again against the Packers, then it will be time for the Vikings to cut their losses on the season and begin the Tarvaris Era.