Thoughts on QB #4's Debut (and the Vikings)

I watched the NFL Network replay of the first half of the DEBUT OF QB #4 (I've decided, for my own sanity, to only refer to him as QB #4, kind of like how NCAA video games work, or how NBA video games never had Michael Jordan, but always had #23 on the Bulls). I do have to say, it got me excited for the season. And not because QB #4 looked like a guy whose first NFL workout (and practice) was on Tuesday. Luckily, he has lots of time before the season starts (Oh wait). A few other thoughts:

• The pass rush looked dominant today. Which is especially amazing because neither Pat Williams or Jared Allen suited up. Fred Evans had a couple of plays where he just pushed the Chiefs center into Cassel, and Robison and Edwards both did a good job on the edge. Defensive line depth is a huge part of a successful defense, and it looks like the Vikings are deep in the front four. Sweet.

• E.J. Henderson looks like the stud I remember and Chad Greenway matched him play for play. They paired up to force a field goal in the first quarter with two great plays in the first quarter. On 1st Down, the Chiefs handed off to Larry Johnson going off tackle. E.J. shed a block in the middle of the field and closed (and when I say "closed", I mean he he beat LJ to the spot he was going) to meet Johnson at the line of scrimmage for no gain. After a 9 yard gain on a pass play, Greenway slipped through the line (and I rewound the play three times and still didn't see the line in the hole he got through) and stuffed LJ for no gain on 3rd and 1, forcing the Chiefs to kick a field goal. Let's see here. Stud defensive linemen. Quality depth behind the studs. And Stud Linebackers? The Vikings are going to be fun to watch on defensive this year.

• Percy Harvin looks like he's going to be dangerous. I'm not sure if he's going to be, but he really looks like he can be. Harvin is Purple Jesus fast. And he had a nice catch with two Chiefs draped all over him for QB #4's only completion. If Harvin turns out to be as dangerous as he looks, the offense could be one of the best in the NFL, assuming the quarterback play is up to par.

• Tarvaris Jackson had good stats, but most of them came after the Chiefs' first teamers came out. He threw off his back foot under pressure, made a horrible decision to throw a pass 4 yards past the line of scrimmage despite having lots of room to run and generally looked a lot like the Tarvaris Jackson from last year--good enough to allow the Vikings to win games, but not in the playoffs.

• Naufahu Tahi is awful. He can't block (he missed a block on the Chief that tackled Peterson on 4th and 1 on the Vikings' first drive), he can't run routes (it was as much his fault as QB #4's that the Vikings' first pass play was an incompletion) and even if he does catch the ball, he's not going to get any yards after the catch. I can't believe the Vikings can't find a better fullback then him, because he's not an NFL caliber player.

Killing Time: The One, True Purple Jesus

The Purple Jesus

Adrian Peterson rushing yards this season alone would crack the top twenty for career rushing yards by a Viking. If he didn’t get a yard against the Giants, this would be the 38^th most rushing yards in an NFL season and if he gets 117 yards, he’ll crack the top twenty. And if he gets 1 43 yards, he’ll become the 15^th running back in the history of the NFL to rush for 1800 yards in a season. He’s currently 9^th among Vikings in career rushing yards and he has an outside chance of passing Michael Bennett for 8^th all time this season (he needs 177 yards to do so). He only needs two more yards to crack 3000 yards for his career and he’s rushed for more yards in his first two years than nine of the running backs in the top ten in rushing yards (only Eric Dickerson had more yards his first two years than Peterson). This is his second season. Think about that. If there’s a player that has earned the “Purple Jesus” nickname, it’s Adrian Peterson. What he has done just defies my ability to describe.

There are two things, however, that Vikings’ fans should be concerned about when it comes to AD. The first was demonstrated very clearly on Sunday—he’s fumble prone. As the Pro Football Reference blog points out, that’s likely a result of his ability to gain yards no other back can (and goes on to look at what an optimal turnover rate might be). Also, Peterson apparently took my advice and carried a football around all week like Omar Epps did in the Program.

The second issue that Vikings fans should be worried about is his work load. He only needs 28 carries to reach 370 for the year, and as Smarter Stats shows, that’s a work load that almost no running back can handle without breaking down (or having their performance fall off markedly). Peterson has carried the ball more than 28 times in four games this year (IND, GNB, CHI, @ ARI). Giving him the ball 29 times against the Colts and 30 times against the Packers makes sense to me. Both games were decided by a field goal. Giving him the ball 28 times against Chicago, including five times after the Vikings went up 31-14 with eight minutes left, does not. Nor does giving him 28 carries, including 13 in the second half, in the blowout of the Cardinals. And even if he doesn’t get to 370 carries this year, he’ll have still carried the ball a tremendous amount, and absorbed the punishment that comes with running the ball 360 times. It’s something Childress needs to keep in mind against the Giants and next year (if he's still around next year). There is no greater sin that Childress could commit that would be worse than ruining Adrian Peterson’s career by over working him.

T.J. and Tarvaris

Tarvaris Jackson’s one year old son, Tarvaris, Jr. (If you had an awesome first name like Tarvaris, you’d pass your name along too) has been battling health issues all season. This is the first I’ve heard of it, and it makes Tarvaris’s transformation from benched quarterback to clear starter (and there is no doubt in my mind that he should be starting this game over a healthy Gus Frerotte) all the more remarkable. Best wishes to his son, and hopefully he can bring home a division crown for him.

This game is going to be the first time that Tarvaris Jackson faces an elite pass rush (the Giants are 5^th in adjusted sack rate) since returning from the bench. If the Vikings are smart, they’ll try and get the ball to Chester Taylor in the passing game. The Giants’ pass defense has the worst DVOA in the NFL against running backs. The reason I say Taylor and not Peterson is because Taylor’s one of the best receiving running backs in the NFL and Peterson is one of the worst. Taylor’s 11^th in the NFL amongst backs in DYAR and 12^th in DVOA and he’s caught 81% of the 54 passes thrown his way. Peterson is 51^st in DYAR and 50^th in DVOA and he’s only caught 54% of the 39 passes thrown his way. (Adjusted Sack Rate, DYAR and DVOA courtesy of Football Outsiders)

1000 yards

Bernard Berrian needs 117 receiving yards to become the tenth Viking with 1000 receiving yards in a season and the first since Nate Burleson in 2004. It’s probably a long shot though—he’s only had that many receiving yards in a game twice in his career, although both games were this year (against Detroit and against Chicago). He only needs 69 yards to surpass his previous season high of 951 yards, which he set last year. That’s a lot more likely, as he’s had seven games this year where he had at least 69 yards, although all of them came with Frerotte at quarterback.

Purple Pass Catching Tight Ends

After gaining 136 receiving yards against the Falcons, Visanthe Shaincoe cracked the top ten all time for receiving yards by a Vikings’ tight end. The top ten is below (courtesy of Pro Football Reference). Two things stick out—the first is Joe Senser’s remarkable 1981 season. I’ll be honest—while I know of him because of his restaurant, I didn’t know he was that good of a player. It’s too bad that he suffered a career ending knee injury in 1982. Of course, his retirement led to the second most striking part of the list; the dominance and consistency of Senser’s replacement, Steve Jordan. When you have half the spots in the top ten (and 60% of the spots in the top 5) you’re clearly the best player to ever play the position in Purple. And in case you were wondering, the tight end who was 10th before Shaincoe's big game? Steve Jordan.

1. Joe Senser, 1981--1004 yards
2. Steve Jordan, 1986—859 yards
3. Steve Jordan, 1985—795 yards
4. Steve Jordan, 1988—756 yards
5. Jermaine Wiggins, 2004—705 yards
6. Byron Chamberlain, 2001—666 yards
7. Steve Jordan, 1991—638 yards
8. Steve Jordan, 1990—636 yards
9. Visanthe Shaincoe, 2008—582 yards
10. Jermain Wiggins, 2005—568 yards

The Giants Schedule

The Giants have a chance to set a record for Quality Wins (wins over teams with a winning record) in the regular season (and then in the playoffs) if things break their way on Sunday. Do not underestimate the Giants—this is a talented team that has played and beaten some very good teams. Even with some of their starters resting, they have the ability to beat the Vikings.

Go Lions

The only thing that could possibly make me feel better tomorrow if the Vikings lose and da Bears win is if the Packers lose to the Lions. That would be a black mark on their franchise that no other franchise could match—a loss to a 0-15 team, the worst team ever. Schadenfreude is a beautiful thing. It is a beautiful thing.

Playoff Scenarios

Joe Posnanski explains the various playoff scenarios. Yes, I could have found a better, more concise article on this subject to link to, but I’m going to take every opportunity I have to link to the best sports writer in America (and thus possibly spread the joy of reading him). Read him and thank me later.

Killing Time: Antoine's Joy, Tarvaris' Award and Best Rookie QB Ever?

Antoine Winfield talks about making the Pro Bowl for the first time. I have to say, his selection actually makes me care about who made the team--I am legitimately happy for him (and he'll always be my favorite on the team because he's backed up my purchase of his jersey).

Football Outsiders breaks down the Vikings win over the Cardinals and advocate starting Tarvaris through the rest of the year. Which isn't surprising, considering that Tarvaris has more DYAR in 4 games (168) than Gus Frerotte has in 11, which says something, considering it's a cumulative stat and not a rate stat (though Tarvaris' DYAR is a lot better than Gus' as well). They also advocate bringing in Gus if the Purple fall behind by multiple scores, an idea I can't get behind. Frerotte is too immobile and has too much trouble with anything except the deep ball to make him a viable "White Horse" candidate. He's not going to be successful against a team that knows he's trying to go deep and has adjusted their coverage (and started blitzing) accordingly. And it's not like Frerotte ever won NFC Offensive Player of the Week while he was starting.

Pro Football Reference on Matt Ryan's historic rookie season (when you're getting compared to Dan Marino, the word "historic" is appropriate). I'll have more on this tomorrow, but this Falcons team is legit--they're not a fluke like the Cardinals. They are a legitimate playoff contender, and they know that this is a must win game for them. Sunday is going to be a tough game for the Purple, and that's even before the loss of Pat Williams is factored in.

Domination and Hope

For the first time this year, I actually think the Vikings have a chance to make a run in the playoffs. Yesterday’s win was that good. That was a playoff team, that was undefeated in its own stadium, and the Vikings just ran them off their own field. They couldn’t pass, they couldn’t run and they couldn’t stop Adrian Peterson OR Tarvaris Jackson. And if the Vikings can duplicate that effort in the playoffs, they can beat any team in the NFC.

As usual, everything started with the defense. Coming into the game, the Cardinals were 4th in DVOA when passing, were 8^th in adjusted sack rate, Kurt Warner was 2^nd among quarterbacks in DYAR and Larry Fitzgerald (2nd in WR DYAR), Anquan Boldin (4th in DYAR) and Steve Breaston (13th in DYAR) were all in the top 15 among wide receivers. The Cardinals have a very, very good passing attack. Kurt Warner was averaging 7.26 yards per passing attempt, but on Sunday, the Vikings held him to 5.1 yards per attempt, despite the fact that the Cardinals called almost 50 pass plays before they brought in Matt Lienart. And it wasn’t just one facet of the pass defense that dominated. The defensive line was all over Warner, sacking him four times and hitting him countless times. Equally important, however, was the coverage and the tackling by the defensive backs and linebackers. The Cardinals were second in the NFL in yards after the catch, but on Sunday, the Vikings were bringing the Cardinals down as soon as they caught the ball (except, of course, for Jermaine Urban's touchdown). It was a team effort too, with Ben Leber, Bennie Sapp, Chad Greenway and Antoine Winfield all having at least 5 tackles. And I would be remiss if I didn’t mention Cedric Griffin’s ridiculous, one handed interception that killed the Cardinals second drive and set up Tarvaris Jackson’s deep touchdown to Bernard Berrian.

And speaking of Tarvaris Jackson, that was the quarterback the Vikings were hoping to see Tarvaris Jackson become this year. He was accurate, poised and threw a good deep ball. His pass to Berrian was perfect. And I mean perfect—he hit him in stride, fitting the ball in the one spot that it had to be to be caught (Berrian, while single covered, was covered pretty well). I know that the Cardinals don’t have the best pass defense in the league (19^th in DVOA against the pass and 28^th in opposing passer rating), but we haven’t seen that Tarvaris Jackson before. He’s had no problem being indecisive and inaccurate against bad pass defenses before, but he wasn’t against the Cardinals. He was accurate, completing 65% of his passes, he threw deep, with touchdown passes of 41 and 59 yards, and he was comfortable in the red zone, throwing two other touchdowns, including a great throw to Sidney Rice. He averaged 7.8 yards per pass attempt and he provided the passing attack that the Vikings need to be Super Bowl contenders. And make no mistake about it—the Vikings can win the Super Bowl with this Tarvaris Jackson. I’m not saying they will, or that this is the real Tarvaris Jackson (though we’ll have a much better idea after the Vikings’ play the Falcons and Giants), but if Tarvaris plays like this in the playoffs, the Vikings are a legitimate contender for the Super Bowl. And it’s probably worth mentioning that they could still get a bye if they win out and the Panthers or Giants lose out.

Finally, congratulations are in order for the Purple Jesus, who set the Vikings’ single season rushing record with his first carry of the second half. His 165 yards on Sunday have him well on the way to the rushing title, especially considering that he’s 160 yards up on Michael Turner, with two games to play, and, unlike Turner, he doesn’t have to face the Williams Wall on Sunday. He’s going to win the rushing title, and he’s the main reason that a team that’s featured Tarvaris Jackson and Gus Frerotte at quarterback has a good enough offense to win their division, get the third seed in the playoffs (and maybe even a bye). If that’s not enough to win the MVP award, I don’t know what is.

Goodell's Rebuke, 51 Passes and La Revolucion

Goodell’s Rebuke
Aside from the fact that it means the Williams Wall will be playing the rest of season, the best part of Judge Magneson's decision to extend his injunction until a hearing can be conducted, is that it’s a rebuke of Commissioner Goodell’s dictatorial regime. As has been said by many other people, the way that Goodell has handled disciplinary issues, whether they were drug related, off the field or on the field, has been heavy handed and has hurt the NFL by focusing the scandal hungry media’s attention on the issues, not to mention taken a lot of joy out of the season by denying fans the chance to think only about what’s happening on the field.

The Magic Number
The Vikings’ magic number remains at 2 after the Saints lost to da Bears last night. And, to make it even worse, Pierre Thomas, who I missed out on by one waiver spot, and who I’m facing in the second round of my fantasy playoffs, had a monster game. Just a bad night all around.

The Line Battle
Any doubts about the Vikings’ acquisition of Jared Allen have been laid to rest by his (and the defensive line’s) performance this year. The Purple People Eaters have returned and are the best line in the NFL. They continue to dominate the run, and are second in adjusted line yards, second in stuff rate and second in power success percentage. And the improvement in their pass rush has been more than anyone could ask for, jumping from 28th overall in adjusted sack rate, at 5.5% to 1st overall at 9.0%.

The line will have to continue to play well against the Cardinals for the Vikings to win. The Purple can’t win a shoot out against a passing game like the Cardinals, which means they have to get to Kurt Warner. Warner has a quick release, but when he’s forced to make decisions under pressure, he tends to make bad ones. The Cardinals offensive line is 8th in adjusted sack rate, at 4.1%, and the Vikings will need their front four to get to Warner without any help if their secondary and linebackers are going to have a chance to cover Fitzgerald (2nd in WR DYAR), Boldin (4th in DYAR), Breaston (13th in DYAR), Arrington and Hightower. And considering they’re 29th in adjusted line yards, it’s safe to say that Arizona’s game plan will be like the one the Cardinals used in 2006, when they threw the ball 51 times and ran only 5 times.

Viva La Tarvaris Revolucion
The Cardinals present a particular problem for the Vikings because their strengths match up well against the Vikings’ weaknesses. In particular, on defense, they’re solid against the run (-8.2% DVOA, 8th overall) and weak against the pass (16.3% DVOA, 19th overall). That makes it all the more important that the Tarvaris Jackson that played in the second half against the Lions show up again on Sunday. If he makes his reads, finds the open receiver and keeps the chains moving with accurate passes and his feet like he did while leading three scoring drives against Detroit, the Vikings will win this game. If he forces throws, doesn’t hit his receivers or just turns the ball over like Gus Frerotte has, the Vikings likely won’t have a chance. Even the best defense in the NFL (which the Vikings are actually close to being) isn’t going to stop the Cardinals every time they have the ball—they’re just too explosive. Give them enough opportunities by turning the ball over or going three and out and they will score and score a lot.

The Big Picture
A win on Sunday will guarantee the Vikings their first winning season under Brad Childress and force da Bears to win out to have a chance to win the division. Quite simply, it’s a must win game, especially when you consider that the schedule doesn’t get any easier, with the Falcons and Giants coming to town to close out the season. A win likely means the playoffs. A loss could quite easily be the first of three, and the beginning of the end of the season. So let’s all hope that Jared Allen is able to play and he joins a motivated Williams Wall in the Arizona backfield on Sunday afternoon.

The Return of Tarvaris (and the Ragnarok)

Thanks to those who’ve sent me emails—my offline life has been crazy lately, with loads of work, travel for work and lots of other things that have taken up my free time, which, combined with the negativity surrounding the team, lead to no posts. But I’m back now and ready for the stretch run.

Some Quick Thoughts:

• I have to say, I was really excited to see Tarvaris come in and perform the way he did. 8/10 passes completed, 103 yards passing and 1 touchdown, along with a 9.54 yard per attempt average, his best ever, and better than any game Frerotte's had this year. He did have a fumble and his rushes weren’t exactly productive, but he made some throws that I’ve never seen him make. I’m a lot more confident in his ability to lead the Vikings to victory on Sunday than I would have been if I hadn’t seen the second half against the Lions. I might actually have more confidence in his ability to play well than I do in Gus "The Interception Leader" Frerotte. And no, it doesn't hurt that the Cardinals aren't very good against the pass, ranking 19th in DVOA.
  

• The idea of Adrian Peterson winning the rushing title is an exciting one. The fact that he’s no longer on pace to crack 370 carries this year, a number that usually means injuries the next year (he’s currently on pace for 360 carries and if the Vikings can clinch a playoff berth early, and they have an 83.6% chance according to Football Outsiders, he won’t even get that) is even better. I still didn’t like Childress’ decision to give Peterson the ball at the end of da Bears game though (especially because Peterson’s having some fumble issues), when the victory was already wrapped up.

• Visanthe "the Equipment Manager" Shiancoe is currently 3rd in DYAR among tight ends and 2^nd in DVOA. Last year he was 29^th and 28^th respectively. I don’t know what happened (although he’s apparently been putting in a lot of extra work), but Shiancoe was a player that I thought should be benched or cut earlier this year (and his insistence on dropping key passes that cost the Purple wins really supported my arguments). Now? He just might be the best receiver on the team. Who saw that one coming?

Killing Time: Fallout from the End of the Tarvaris Revolution

Fallout from the end of the Tarvaris Revolution:

• Tarvaris' failure has shaken Brad Childress' confidence (and no, I don't think that's a bad thing--maybe it will lead to him reassessing his awful playcalling).
• Gonzo and Jason Winters are shocked that Childress would actually make the change after his hard headness this offseason.
• Cold, Hard Football Facts point out the large knife sticking out of Tarvaris' back.
• Player reactions.

Playcalling issues:
I still believe Tarvaris' development was hurt by his coaches. Would it have turned him into Jay Cutler? Probably not, but better coaching on fundamentals and better play calling could have been the difference between 0-2 and 2-0. The predictability of the Vikings' offensive game plan is pathetic, and not something that should be a problem for a third year head coach with an offensive background.

Advanced NFL Stats and Smart Football both have pieces on the negative effect of predictable playcalling.

Injuries:
Sydney Rice and Bernard Berrian are both battling injuries right now. Bryant McKinnie is still out for two more games. Tarvaris wasn't able to overcome his top two receivers being dinged up. Will Frerotte? (Probably not. Why couldn't the Vikings get a real backup quarterback?)

And that doesn't even factor in the injury to Madieu Williams, who might not have made the same mistakes rookie Tyrell Johnson has made that have lead to multiple deep completions.

And sadly, Visanthe Shiancoe is not injured, nor will he be on the inactive list.

Power Rankings:
After falling to 0-2, the Vikings continued to fall in the power rankings. They've dropped from just outside of the top ten to inside the top twenty and now, are outside of the top twenty with an average of 20.2. A win over the Panthers, who have an average rank of 7th, would certainly help the Vikings' move up, but don't expect them to get near their preseason ranking unless they go on a winning streak.

1. Cold, Hard Football Facts.com (19)
2. Foxsports.com (19)
3. ESPN.com (21)
4. CBSsportsline.com (22)
5. Dr. Z's rankings on CNNSI.com (20)

Sunday:
People are already talking about the Panthers as one of the best teams in the NFL, which is no surprise after going 2-0 against the Chargers and Bears. The interesting thing, is, according to Football Outsiders, the Vikings have a higher overall DVOA. The Panthers have higher DVOA on offense, but they're only ranked 15th, while the Vikings are 18th. Defensively, the Purple have played better, and are ranked 11th, with a -5.8% DVOA, while the Panthers have a positive DVOA (you want a negative DVOA defensively), and are 17th overall.

Then again, Steve Smith is going to be playing for the first time on Sunday, and he'll be fired up (his family is even going to be there). I fully expect him to torch Cedric Griffin like he did Fred Smoot, if Leslie Frazier makes the mistake of not keeping Antoine Winfield on Smith all game long.

Frerotte Ends the Tarvaris Revolution

It's official--the Tarvaris Revolution is over. Gus Frerotte will be starting on Sunday for the Vikings and will, most likely, be the starter for the rest of the year. It's not a surprise, what with Tarvaris completing only 50.8% of his passes and averaging only 4.4 yards per pass attempt. I'm not sure this is the right decision (I really do think that 75% of the blame for the pathetic passing game lies on Childress and the receivers' shoulders), but in the end, if the Vikings don't beat the Panthers, they aren't going to the playoffs, and no matter what Zygi's said about Childress' job security, he's gone if the Vikings don't make the playoffs (and he should be). And to be fair, it's not like Tarvaris did anything to keep the job in the first two games.

Things I like about this decision:

• Frerotte's has averaged 6.02 yards per pass attempt for his career
  
• Frerotte's has a really low sack rate, which, at 6.0%, is lower than Tarvaris' 6.7% sack rate. That means he's not going to force the Vikings into a lot of 2nd/3rd and long situations like Brooks Bollinger (11.8% career sack rate) and Kelly Holcomb (7.4% career sack rate, 13.1% sack rate last year) did.
  

Reasons why the Vikings should have traded for Sage Rosenfels to be the backup:

• Frerotte averaged only 5.37 yards per attempt last year, which is worse than Tarvaris' 5.88 yards per attempt average last year.
• Frerotte cannot scramble--he has 308 rushing yards in 136 games.
• Frerotte's career completion percentage is 54.2%, which is lower than Tarvaris' 57.1%, and he completed only 56.3% of his passes last year.
  

More Reason to Be Optimistic About Tarvaris

I didn't get to watch the game tonight, so I'm not going to do an in depth analysis of the Vikings' play, but after looking through the box score, I couldn't help but be impressed with Tarvaris' performance. When your much maligned quarterback completes 8 of 11 passes for 118 yards and a touchdown, avoids being sacked and has two passes for 30 yards and a touchdown wiped out by penalties (the first by an Anthony Herrera false start and the second due to Marcus Trufant's interference), it's a reason to be optimistic, especially when the Seahawks have an above average pass defense (they finished 14th in team DVOA against the pass).


Yeah, I know, it's the preseason, but it's nice to have Tarvaris back up my optimism in the first preseason game, especially in the wake of the Vikings' (intelligent) decision not to pursue Brett Favre. It's only going to get harder from here, but I'm confident that he can turn into the league average quarterback the Vikings need him to be if they want to contend for the Super Bowl.

Optimism About Tarvaris

With the Favre Fiasco finally resolved through a trade with the Jets, we now know that Tarvaris Jackson is going to be the starting quarterback. And that means that the success of the Vikings will rest largely on his ability to be a league average quarterback. There’s good news on that front, however, as one of the surprising things that this edition of the Pro Football Prospectus has done is reinforce my confidence in Tarvaris Jackson’s ability to be a league average quarterback. To be fair, I’m probably interpreting the stats as optimistically as possible, but I reserve the right not to let the Vikings’ long history of failure prevent me from being optimistic. So, without further ado, the Pro Football Prospectus’ reasons to be confident about Brad Childress’ decision to trust a Super Bowl caliber team in Tarvaris Jackson:

• Tarvaris Jackson had a better DVOA and DYAR last year than Marc Bulger, 2005 first overall pick Alex Smith, three of the five other quarterbacks selected in the first three rounds of the 2006 draft, all of which the experts consider to be better quarterback prospects (Kellen Clemens of the Jets, Brodie Croyle of the Chiefs and #3 pick Vince Young) and last, but not least, Super Bowl Champion Eli Manning, who was, without any question, a worse quarterback than Tarvaris Jackson last year. Manning’s DVOA was -13.1%, Tarvaris’ was -5.8%. Manning had -70 DYAR, Tarvaris had 107 DYAR. Manning completed 56.1% of his passes while averaging 5.6 Net Yards per Pass, while Tarvaris completed 58.7% of his passes while averaging 6.0 NY/P.

• Tarvaris’ was a lot more accurate than his stats show. According to PFP’s game charters, he had the 9^th highest drop rate, as Vikings’ receivers dropped 20 passes, a full 6.9% of his throws. That rate should go down now that Troy Williamson is gone, and the offense now features Sidney Rice (projected catch percentage of 57%), Bobby Wade (projected catch percentage of 57%) and Bernard Berrian (projected catch percentage of 54%). He also had the 7^th lowest rate of underthrown passes and the 3^rd fewest passes defensed, where he slots right in right after Tom Brady, but ahead of Carson Palmer, Drew Brees, Donovan McNabb, Ben Roethlisburger and David Garrard.

• Tarvaris is good at avoiding sacks. The Vikings’ line had an adjusted sack rate (ASR) of 8.6%, the fifth highest in the NFL. Tarvaris’ was 6.5%. That low rate doesn’t mean he wasn’t hit a lot though, as he was knocked down (sacked or hit) 17.4% of the time he dropped back, the fourth highest rate of quarterback’s with at least 200 attempts. What’s striking is the ASR of the other quarterbacks in the top ten of that list—six of the nine had ASR higher than 8.0%.

• David Garrard was 29 in 2006, one year before his breakout (Tarvaris will be 25 this year), but aside from his age, his advanced statistics are close enough to Tarvaris’ last year to believe that some tweaking of Tarvaris’ arm angle and footwork, combined with better receivers, could lead to a similar breakout.
• Garrard’s line: 11 games, 60.2% Completion Percentage, -4.8% DVOA, 107 DYAR, 6.6 NY/P, 8.3% ASR, 7.0% Rushing DVOA, 56 Rushing DYAR.
• Tarvaris’ line: 12 games, 58.2% Completion Percentage, -5.8% DVOA, 107 DYAR, 6.0 NY/P, 6.5% ASR, 25.4% Rushing DVOA, 80 Rushing DYAR.
• Ok, I know that’s something of a stretch, but remember, we’re being optimistic here. Garrard’s line doesn’t foretell a 4% increase in Completion Percentage, a 42.2% increase in DVOA, an increase of 981 DYAR, a 7.0 NY/P, a 1.4% decrease in ASR and a complete lack of scrambling the next year (Garrard only ran 5 times last year, down from 47 in 2006).

Is that enough to convince me that Tarvaris Jackson can lead the Vikings to the Super Bowl (or at least not get in the way of the rest of the team)? Maybe. Maybe not. Is it enough to convince me that the Vikings made the right choice in not trading for Derek Anderson or Chad Pennington, and in the process giving away the draft picks they used to obtain Jared Allen? Yes. And is it enough to convince me that I’d rather have Tarvaris than Favre and all the cognitive issues he would have created? Yes, yes, a thousand times yes.

Ask the Prospectus: AFC South

Over the next two weeks or so, I’m going to be previewing the upcoming season, using a bit that Joe Posnanski came up with on his blog (and really, if you haven’t gone over to his site and read his stuff, you are missing out. He is, quite simply, the best sports writer in America. I don’t care if you hate Kansas City, baseball and apple pie—his stuff is so good, you’ll still enjoy it. Also, buy his book on Buck O’Neill—it’s an amazing read). The basic idea is this—I’ll ask two or three questions about each team (some of which will be Vikings related) and the Pro Football Prospectus, written by the great folks over at Football Outsiders, will answer them (and yes, you should buy the Prospectus. It’s a great book for NFL fans and Fantasy Football players, and it will help you understand and enjoy the game a lot more). And now that I’m done plugging books for which I receive no compensation, onto today’s preview—the AFC South, home of four teams on the Vikings schedule and four teams that finished .500 or better last year. I’m not going to try and predict their record, but I am going to put them in the order I expect them to finish.

Indianapolis Colts

Is Marvin Harrison going to be Marvin Harrison again?

PFP: Nope, but it won’t matter. And that’s before you factor in that no one outside of the RCA Dome knows the truth about the knee injury he suffered against the Broncos. The Prospectus has him catching only 52 passes for 741 yards and 5 touchdowns, which would be his worst statistics in a full season ever. The thing is, it won’t matter. Not only is Reggie Wayne the best receiver on the Colts, and has been the last two years, eclipsing Harrison in DVOA and DYAR in 2006 and 2007, but Anthony Gonzalez is poised to become the next great Colts receiver after having the best DVOA of wide receivers with a minimum of 50 passes thrown to them. He showed up in the playoffs too. If Gonzalez matches his projection of 1085 yards and 10 touchdowns, the Colts won’t even notice if Harrison never steps on the field.

Can the Colts hold off the Jaguars again and challenge the Patriots for the AFC Championship?

PFP: Depends on whether the Defense can stay healthy. Last year, the Colts lost 53.9 worth of games from their defensive starters, the highest total by far in the NFL. Of course, that’s what happens when your two best defensive players are injury prone, though last year, safety Bob Sanders missing games wasn’t the problem (he only missed on game)—everyone else was. When either Sanders is healthy, the Colts have one of the best pass defenses in the league; they were 3^rd in 2005, the last time Dwight Freeney and Sanders were both healthy, and 4^th last year, when Sanders was healthy. When Sanders was hurt in 2006, the Colts were only 19^th against the pass, though Sanders return for the playoffs helped shore up their defense and propelled them to their Super Bowl win.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Can David Gerrard repeat his amazing 2007 season?

PFP: Yes, though he’s going to throw more than 3 interceptions this year. His coaches are the same, his line is the same, he’ll have the same support from the running game and the Jaguars brought in Jerry Porter to catch his passes. PFP has him throwing for 3898 yards with a 23:13 TD to INT ratio and completing 61.3% of his passes. While it seems like a big jump in interceptions, maintaining an interception per attempt rate of less than one percent isn’t realistic. All of the fifteen quarterbacks with the lowest interception per attempts in a season since 1978 saw their INT/Att percentage increase the next year (excluding Tom Brady and David Gerrard, who obviously haven’t played their next year yet) and all but two threw double digit interceptions the next year.

Is the Jaguars defensive line as good as the Vikings’ defensive line?

PFP: Not anymore. Prior to the addition of the Jared Allen, one could argue that the Jaguars line, while not as good against the run as the Vikings, was so much better at getting to the passer that they were the superior defensive line, though injuries were starting to diminish their effectiveness. Now, with defensive tackle Marcus Stroud gone in a trade that yielded the picks the Jaguars used to move up to select Derrick Harvey and defensive end Paul Spicer, who lead the team in sacks, turning 33, they’re a line in transition. Derrick Harvey will be good (and I will be comparing him with Jared Allen as long as I possibly can as a way to evaluate the Vikings’ decision making) and second round pick Quentin Groves should help at end as well, but the fact they’re counting on rookies means that they can’t compete with the new Purple People Eaters.

Can anyone on the Jaguars catch the ball?

PFP: Yes—Jerry Porter and Mercedes Lewis. Maybe Dennis Northcutt. That’s it. Every other receiver on the team combines stone hands, butter fingers, alligator arms and poor eyesight into the perfect maelstrom of pass dropping (basically, Troy Williamson prior to his Lasik). And if David Gerrard's performance takes a step back, Troy Williamson will likely have played a role in it. I’d also like to point out that Randy Moss had the second best season by a receiver since 1995 last year. Heck of a trade by the Vikings in 2005.

Houston Texans

Can the Texans make the playoffs for the first time in their history?

PFP: Definitely. The Texans are projected to win 8.9 games this year, the fifth highest total in the AFC, behind only the Colts (9.9 projected wins) and Jaguars (9.2 projected wins) in their division and the Patriots (12.4 projected wins) and Chargers (12.0 projected wins) outside the AFC South. Their schedule isn’t particularly hard either, ranked 15^th in the NFL in opponents' projected DVOA. That being said, their three hardest games out of their division are on the road (@ PIT, @ MIN, @ GB), so they don’t have a lot of wiggle room if they want to get the final Wild Card spot.

Was Mario Williams the right choice in 2006?

PFP: Looks like it. Williams broke out in the final six games of last year, racking up 10 sacks, and finishing with 14 for the season. That kind of production from a defensive end is worth the #1 overall pick in the pass happy NFL. And in a division that contains two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, having someone who can put pressure on them is priceless. That being said, one of the things holding back the Texans’ offense last year was the lack of a home run threat in the backfield. The Texans offensive line was had the lowest Stuff percentage in the NFL last year, which shows they were great at opening holes on the line. They were only 22^nd in the NFL in runs of 10+ yards though, which means that Ron Dayne, Ahman Green and Darius Walker weren’t able to make things happen once they were through the line, something Reggie Bush specializes in. The Texans brought in Chris Brown this year to compete for the starting job in the backfield, but odds are he won’t be the answer. Unlike good defensive ends, good running backs can be found relatively easily in the draft, though, which means that Williams was the right choice, even if he’s only above average at getting to the quarterback.

Tennessee Titans

What’s the difference between Vince Young and Tarvaris Jackson’s NFL Careers?

PFP: The 2006 Rose Bowl. Young was drafted third overall in 2006, and Tarvaris went late in the second round. Since then, they’ve been roughly comparable, though Young has played in 14 more games. Tarvaris has an INT/Att of 4.3%, while Young’s INT/Att is 4.1%. Both threw 9 touchdowns last year, had a similar net yards per pass attempt average (6.0 for Tarvaris and 5.9 for Young), similar adjusted sack rates (6.5% to 6.7%) and both have the ability to scramble, though Tarvaris had a higher rushing DVOA (25.4% to -9.7%)and more rushing DYAR (80 to 9) than Young last year. He also had a higher passing DVOA (-5.8% to -8.4%)and more DYAR (107 to 74) as well. Jackson’s projection is better than Young's this year as well, with more passing yards (3376 to 2783), a higher net yards per attempt (5.8 to 4.7), a better TD:INT ratio (21:18 to 13:15) and a better passing DVOA (-7.0% to-15.3%). How much of this is due to the fact that Tarvaris plays in a much better offense is up for debate, but his receivers weren’t much better than Young’s last year (Tavaris had his receivers drop 6.9% of his passes, the ninth highest percentage in the NFL, while Young’s receiver's drop percentage didn’t crack the top ten) and he still had better statistics.

Is Albert Haynesworth the best defensive tackle in the NFL?

PFP: Yes, and he just might be the best defensive lineman in the NFL, even though he’s penalty prone (something I was shocked, I say SHOCKED, to find out). Haynesworth had 9 penalties called on him last year, the fourth most on a defender in the NFL and the most of any defensive tackle (his partner at defensive tackle, Tony Brown, was tied for fifth with 8). Haynesworth was the only player to finish in the top ten in Percentage of Team Plays Made (9^th overall), Stop Percentage (5^th overall) and Average Yards Against (3^rd overall) among defensive tackles. Pat Williams just missed out, finishing 3^rd, 9^th and 11^th respectively. Justin Tuck of the Giants was the only player to finish that high amongst defense ends, finishing 10^th, 7^th and 10^th in the three categories.

The Titans are basically the 2006 Vikings, right?

PFP: Yup. Bad offenses (the Titans were 21^st in offensive DVOA last year, while the Vikings were 29^th in 2006) combined with good defenses (the Titans were 1^st in defensive DVOA last year, while the 2006 Vikings were 4^th overall), leading to mediocre seasons. The Titans were a little better on offense and defense last year than the 2006 Vikings, which was the difference between the Vikings’ 6-10 finish and the Titans’ 10-6 finish. The thing is, the Titans didn’t improve the quality of the players Vince Young has to throw to (excluding a 33 year old Alge Crumpler, who is coming off his worst season), so unless Young plans on playing like the #3 pick should play in his third year (something he showed no signs of doing last year), the passing game isn’t going to improve. Without any improvement, the Titans will continue to rely on their rushing game and defense to generate points, neither of which is likely to improve their offensive DVOA (partially because defensive points obviously aren’t factored into the statistic). And then you factor in the loss of defensive end Antwan Odom, who had 8 sacks, and a small step back from players like Kyle Vanden Bosch (12 sacks last year) and 34 year old cornerback Nick Harper and the 6^th hardest projected schedule and all of sudden, it isn’t that hard to see the Titans matching their Mean Win projection and finishing with the same 6-10 record as the 2006 Vikings.

Killing Time: Training Camp

Lots of good stuff out there at the start of training camp (during which I will spend most of my time praying that no one gets hurt and that Ray Edwards heals quickly). One of the reasons that I've been having trouble coming up with posts (aside from a lack of creativity, a busy season at work and other reasons) is the fact that Vikings' don't really have a whole lot of questions on their depth chart that need to be answered in training camp. The Star Tribune listed the five biggest questions, and most of them won't be answered until the regular season (except, of course, for the McKinnie Question, which has been hanging over the Purple for so long without any action that I tend to forget about it).

The big question remains whether Tarvaris can become a league average quarterback, something that can't be answered until the season starts. There have been some good articles recently that suggest to me that we may be a little more worried than we needed to be. Football Outsiders' change over from DPAR to DYAR has boosted Tarvaris' ranking slightly. He's still replacement level, but he's young, and he's finally got a solid receiving corp around him (though, according to Football Outsiders, Berrian isn't that great of an acquisition, as he finished well behind Bobby Wade AND Sidney Rice in DYAR, DVOA and catch percentage last year). Can he make the leap to league average? I think so, but we won't know until the preseason games at the earliest.

Even if Tarvaris doesn't improve all that much, a reader of Cold, Hard Football Facts recently submitted an article that makes me more optimistic for the upcoming season. In it, he shows that, while success in the passing game (as defined by an advantage in Yards Per Attempt) is important, it is not as important as a successful running game (as defined by an advantage in rushing attempts and rushing yards).

Finally, FanHouse was able to come up with another training camp question: Aundrae Allison v. Robert Ferguson. The answer to me seems simple--keep Allison. He's younger, he's faster, he has a ton of potential and he's the most dangerous kick returner on the team. I wouldn't be surprised to see Childress fall into the "veteran trap" and give Ferguson the nod, especially now that he can turn to Maurice Hicks, another (inferior) veteran, to return kicks, but I hope that his goatee prevents him from making that mistake. One can only hope.

Overthinking Tarvaris

As you probably noticed, Peter King prominently featured Tarvaris Jackson in his latest MMQB column and, after reading it, I have to say, I'm still feel pretty much exactly way I did about the way the Vikings handled the quarterback position this off season as I did before.

Unlike last year, it wasn't unreasonable for the Purple to decide on Tarvaris Jackson as their starter. The alternatives were too expensive (and too risky), and as King pointed out,

"Before I spoke with Jackson, I looked at his bio and his game-by-game numbers from last year. This stunned me: In the final seven games last year, when Jackson and the Vikings went 5-2, he completed 65.2 percent of his passes. Look at these game by completion accuracy numbers, in percentages: 77, 83, 75, 64, 62, 61 and 52. The biggest thing he had to do after his career at Division I-AA Alabama State was work on accuracy (in his three seasons there, he completed 51, 52 and 61 percent of his throws, respectively) and knowledge of the pro game."

So he was getting better as he got more comfortable. That makes sense to me. You could see the same thing in the way he played against the Broncos and during the Purple's winning streak--he was finally making the adjustment to the speed of the NFL that rookies have to make (and he was a rookie in spirit, if not in name). Apparently, he's also done really well in the recent practices, something both Robert Ferguson and Steve Hutchinson pointed out to King (and both players have played with Pro Bowl quarterbacks).

But here's the thing. He might have completed a high percentage of his passes in his last few games, but he was also quite horrible in the last two games that really mattered in the season, throwing 3 interceptions against da Bears and 2 against the Redskins. I also distinctly remember a jump pass occurring against da Bears, something I will hopefully never see again.

And, once again, there isn't a backup plan. Now, I'm not a huge Gus Frerotte fan, but he was a decent backup the last time he was wearing Purple. That was also four years ago. He's 37 now--does anyone really think he can do a good enough job under center to allow the Vikings to win a game? John David Booty is what he is--a developmental quarterback that's likely to wash out of the NFL within a few years, like most quarterbacks drafted on the second day. Sage Rosenfels was available, and the Vikings almost pulled the trigger, and, well, they really should have, especially if King is right that the Vikings "would have put the efficient Rosenfels in competition with Jackson, and Rosenfels likely would have won the job". Nothing against Rosenfels, who was a solid QB in limited time last year, but if he can beat out your starting quarterback, that's a problem. Of course, that doesn't mean that King is right about Rosenfels winning the job from Jackson (I read King for his sources, not his football analysis or his writing), but still, it's disheartening to hear.

So yeah, we're basically right back to where we started prior to King's column. Tarvaris has the potential to be a good enough quarterback for the Vikings to go deep into the playoffs. He's shown the ability in flashes, last year was his first year as a starter, the Vikings' went 8-4 when he played, etc. That doesn't mean he will though. As Tarvaris himself put it,

"I know what people are saying,'' he told me. " 'The Vikings have a great defense, the best running back in the league, a great offensive line ... what about the quarterback?' The quarterback position -- every day of your life you're under the microscope anyway. I understand that. I'm very confident in my growth as a player in this system. But I know what's going on. People don't have any reason NOT to ask that question about me.''

Solving Our Problems-Tarvaris' Backup

[Solving Our Problems is an ongoing series here at the Ragnarok where I evaluate the Vikings' options going into the offseason. I've started by looking at the quarterback options, starting with Derek Anderson, Donovan McNabb and now possible backups for Tarvaris Jackson.]

Sorry about the sporadic posting over the lasrt few weeks. I've been fighting my usual "end of the vikings season" funk, getting into the start of Big East basketball (that's right, that's the Hoyas you see with a two game lead in the conference) and traveling for work (who books someone in a hotel without free internet nowadays?)

And, to be honest, every time I sit down to finish my series on the Vikings options at quarterback, the lack of reasonable options always stops me before I even start. The Purple aren't going to be able to get Donovan McNabb or Derek Anderson without giving up a large number of draft picks, which means that we're headed for year three of the Tarvaris Revolution. And, as others have pointed out, that's not necessarily a bad thing. Going into next season with Tarvaris under center, however, does not mean that the Purple are set at quarterback (and it means they really need to bring in some wide receivers, which I'll cover later). Rather, it means that the Purple must find a competent backup (ie, not Brooks Bollinger), something that is just as hard to find as a starting quarterback this year.

By my count, there are four possible options for the Purple, and none of them are ideal, let alone likely. The best option is for them to trade for Chad Pennington. He's good enough that he can be counted on to give the Vikings a chance to win if he's playing, but not so good that he expects to start (86.1 QB Rating, 68.8 completion percentage, 10 TDs, 9 INTs) . He has had some injury issues the last few years (including a rotator cuff injury that required surgery and an ankle injury), but nothing that is so troublesome that it causes you to worry about having to play your third quarterback. And, he understands making the transition from a non BCS school to the NFL, which, along with his 8 years of experience, should make him a great mentor to a young quarterback. The problem, of course, is that the Jets need a veteran backup QB to help mentor their young starter as much as the Vikings do, which is why Pennington is unavailable.

Unlike Pennington, Steve McNair is probably available, for the right price. Of course, that means he has other drawbacks. If his job were solely to mentor Tarvaris, then he'd be perfect, considering that in his prime, he was what we want Tarvaris to become-a mobile, accurate QB that played 1-AA football and shared the MVP award in 2003. The problem is that, not only did McNair show he is no longer good enough to be a starter in the NFL (73.9 QB Rating, 2 TDs, 4 INTS), he spent most of last year injured. Considering that Tarvaris missed 4 games last year due to injuries (and parts of others), the last quarterback you want backing him up is a fragile one.

The other two options for the Vikings are Josh McCown and Quinn Gray. Unlike Pennington and McNair, neither McCown nor Gray have ever been the starter on a winning team. While McCown's been in the NFL for six years, three of which he was starting during, he has yet to post a positive DVOA, and his play last year was actually worse than Tarvaris', according to DPAR and DVOA.

Unlike McCown, Gray made his team better last year, posting a 20.4 DPAR (22nd overall) and 19.5% DVOA (12th overall), which was backed up by his 85.6 QB rating, 10 TDs and only 5 INTs. Avoiding the fact that some team may be willing to sign him to start (or at least compete for a starting job), there are still some major question marks about Gray. The first of which is his career completion percentage of 56.1%, which was actually higher than his 55.1 completion percentage last year. The second problem is that he doesn't have the experience to act as a mentor for Tarvaris--his first start of his career was in Week 8 this year.

If I had to guess, I'd say that the Vikings end up going after McCown, after they find out that the better options aren't available. It's not ideal, but it's probably (hopefully) better than going into the season with Bollinger and Holcombe.

Looking Back at Monday

A few more thoughts on Monday's game:

Special Teams:
The kick coverage was good. The rest of the special teams were not, and that's not even taking into the consideration the fact that THEY MISSED AN EXTRA POINT. Not only did that set off some 'Nam like flashbacks to the Doug O'Brien era, it also means that I will be terrified after every touchdown until the extra point has been kicked. Thankfully it only took the Vikings 15 minutes to score again, so no one had time to get worried about that extra point costing them the game and a playoff berth.

Also, I'd like to take a minute to thank Aundrae Allison for repaying my confidence in him. Nothing like averaging 17 yards on four kickoff returns to show why you should be primary kick returner. Though, it's not like Bobby Wade can say anything, considering he had two fair catches and 12 return yards as the punt returner. Somehow, I doubt the Redskins will be implementing the Hester Rules on Sunday night.

Purple Jesus:
Adrian Peterson is only 39 yards behind Willie Parker for the NFL rushing lead, an impressive feat, considering he has 102 fewer carries (and 62 fewer carries than 2nd place LaDainian Tomlinson). If Peterson had as many carries as Parker, he'd have almost 1800 yards. So there's that. Of course, if Peterson wants to win the rushing title, he's going to have to stop looking for the big play and just run, something he started doing again in the second half on Sunday. His second touchdown was a thing of beauty (well, after the handoff, that is). He looked like he was skiing he was cutting so sharply. The fact that the Redskins second leading tackler, linebacker Rocky McIntosh, is out for the rest of the season probably won't hurt his chances either.

The Tarvaris Revolution:
There are quite a few articles that came out discussing Tarvaris' performance on Sunday and the need for him to improve. And they are deserved, but not as much as they were earlier this year. What we saw on Sunday was Tarvaris' first game where he faced pressure and what we saw were mixed results. He had a 50 quarterback rating, mainly due to the three interceptions and no touchdowns, but he also had an average of 8.6 yards per pass attempt and scrambled for 25 yards, picking up two first downs in the process (and picking up a crucial unnecessary roughness penalty). Luckily the Vikings final two games are against teams that aren't that good at rushing the passer (Washington and Denver are tied at 23rd in adjusted sack rate). If the Vikings make the playoffs, however, he's going to see similar pressure, however, as Tampa Bay is 11th in adjusted sack rate and Seattle is 6th.

Matt Birk and Ryan Cook:
Could these two lineman have played any worse on Monday night? Birk was awful in the blitz pickup (I'm sure that Tarvaris appreciated his decision to help out Steve Hutchinson rather than block Brian Urlacher was appreciated) and Ryan Cook was his usual mediocre self. Honestly, anyone to the right of Hutchinson is suspect, which isn't really something you want to be thinking about when you're in the middle of a playoff race.

Mad Talent
It's the worst of all the sports All Star Games, but it's still an honor to be named to the Pro Bowl, so congratulations must go out to Adrian Peterson, Tony Richardson, Steve Hutchinson, Matt Birk, Darren Sharper, Kevin Williams and Pat Williams. The seven Vikings named (and alternates E.J. Henderson, Heath Farwell, Ryan Longwell and Bryant McKinnie) show how much talent this Vikings team has. It also shows how important the passing game is, as it was the Vikings complete lack of one at the beginning of the season that held the Vikings back.

Friday Roundup

Thursday's Game
Last night's game between the Redskins and Bears could not have gone any better for the Purple. Chicago's loss dropped them to 5-8 and 2-7 in the conference, all but officially eliminating them from the playoff chase. The Redskins improved to 6-7 and 4-5 in the NFC, but the Vikings will have the opportunity to beat them at the Metrodome, which will be an easier task now that their starting quarterback, Jason Campbell, is likely done for the year with a dislocated knee cap. That means they'll be forced to rely on Todd Collins, who, prior to last night, hadn't seen the field since 2004, or Mark Brunell, who makes Brad Johnson look like a spry, young gunslinger.

Rex Grossman was also hurt, but Chicago has not yet released the severity of his leg injury. To be honest, I'm not sure whether Grossman missing next Sunday's game would help or hurt the Vikings.

The Revolution--Better Than the Big Names
Don't look now, but the Tarvaris Revolution has a better quarterback rating (and DPAR and DVOA) than Vince Young, Alex Smith, Kellen Clemens, Rex Grossman and David Carr. Both Young and Clemens were picked ahead of Tarvaris in the 2006 draft, Grossman lead Chicago to the Super Bowl last year and Smith and Carr were both taken first overall. And I know I wasn't the only one who argued that the Vikings should have acquired Carr to be their starter this year. Shows how much I know.

The Pace the Purple Jesus Needs
In order to break Eric Dickerson's rookie record of 1,808 rushing yards, the Purple Jesus would need to average 153 rushing yards over the last four games of the season. It's a daunting task, but it's in now way outside the realm of possibility, especially considering the Vikings are facing the teams who are ranked 27th (49ers-124 YPG) , 26th (Bears-123.2 YPG), 8th (Redskins-94.8 YPG) and 31st (Broncos-149.1 YPG) in rushing yards per game

Sunday's Pick
Sunday's game against the 49ers is, quite simply, a game the Vikings should win. There are no excuses at all. This isn't a trap game, since the Vikings shouldn't be looking past a team that embarrassed them last year, a loss that probably kept them out of the playoffs. The 49ers are an awful team, on offense and on defense. They're quarterbacked by Trent Dilfer. Their only real threat is running back Frank Gore, and he's only broken 100 yards rushing in a game once, and he needed overtime to do so. Seriously folks--the next time I worry about this team's ability to shut down the run when facing a mediocre to bad quarterback will be the first. The Vikings are the superior team in all aspects of the game and one that's riding a tidal wave of momentum. That's why I'm picking the Vikings in a blowout, 30-10.

Can the Tarvaris Revolution Continue?

Last year, a 4-3 Vikings team with playoff aspirations went into San Francisco, and, against a defense that was allowing an average of 33.6 points per game, managed one field goal in a 9-3 loss. After an offseason spending spree, the 49ers defense has improved, but only from league worst to below average (23.8 ppg-24th overall).

Here's the thing-despite focusing on improving their pass defense in the offenseby signing corner Nate Clements to a whopping 8 year, $80 million contract and safety Michael Lewis and drafted LB Patrick Willis and DE Ray McDonald in the first and third round, the Niners defense has not only failed to improve, it's gotten worse. Last year, their defense was 28th in opposing passer rating and 25th in Negative Pass Play Percentage (NPP). Quarterbacks posted a 90.9 QB Rating against them and were only able to cause a Negative Pass Play (an interception or a sack) 8.7% of the time, or a little less than 3 times a game, despite opponents running an average of 32.4 pass plays a game.

This year, even with improved personnel, the Niners have allowed opposing quarterbacks to post a 91.9 QB rating while only causing a negative pass play 7.9% of the time, which equates to about 2.6 of the 33.9 pass plays opponents have passed against them.

To put those statistics in context, consider that Peyton Manning has a 92.5 QB rating and that the Giants have the best NPP, with 12.79%, or 4.25 times out of 33.2 attempts. Here are the Vikings' last three opponents' opposing QB rating and NPP:

Team	Opposing QB Rating	Negative Pass Play Percentage	Tarvaris’ QB Rating
OAK	74.1 (6th)	10.58% (7th)	79.9
NYG	84.6 (18th)	12.79% (1st)	139.2
DET	93.0 (29th)	9.05% (18th)	110.4

To put it bluntly, this will be one of the worst passing defenses Tarvaris will see all year. And it's not like he'll have to carry the load either, as the Vikings should be able to run against them as well (the Niners are allowing an average of 3.8 YPC). Then again, Brad Johnson and Chester Taylor shouldn't have had any problems against them last year.

Three Stars--Too Many To Choose From

One of the difficulties in picking three stars is the differing nature of offense and defense. It’s easier for offensive skill players to stand out than it is for a defender to do so. The Vikings defense dominated the Lions yesterday, but no defender really stuck out. Cedric Griffin and Marcus McCauley lead the teams with seven tackles, but, as corners, many of those tackles came after the receiver they were covering caught a pass. Three different Vikings linemen had sacks, but the constant pressure on Jon Kitna can’t be attributed to any one player’s effort—it was a joint effort by the linemen and the linebackers, same as the Vikings holding the Lions to 23 yards rushing. And Udeze’s interception was pretty much the only play he made today. Honestly, the MVP on defense will go to Pat Williams, Kevin Williams or E.J. Henderson, but I don’t know that a football layman can actually make that call.

It’s a lot easier to pick out the stars on offense, especially today. The Vikings offense scored on their first five offensive possessions. Aside from the Three Stars (who will become obvious shortly), numerous other Vikings turned in noteworthy performances.

• Bobby Wade and Sidney Rice continue to play well. Both made quality catches for touchdowns (Wade going to his knees to catch a low throw for his first TD of the year and Rice by hauling in a fade route over a defender). Wade had 4 catches for 54 yards, Rice had 5 catches for 53. Wade’s the Vikings’ leading receiver, while Rice is tied for first among rookie wide outs in touchdowns and is fourth in receptions and yards.

• Chester Taylor continues to provide starting running back performance as the back up. He gained 70 yards today, an average of 5 yards per carry over 14 carries. He also threw a touchdown pass that was dropped by a wide open Visanthe Shiancoe. (And while I understand where Childress was coming from when he called the two trick plays near the end of the game, but honestly, is it better to save them for when they might be needed, rather than use them in a blowout, allowing other teams to prepare for them? Does anyone really think Jeff Dugan is going to get very far running the ball if the other team is waiting for him?)

• The entire offensive line deserves to be praised for a dominating performance as well. They only gave up one sack, while creating the holes for Peterson and Taylor to run for an average of 5.5 YPC on 39 carries. Peterson has a lot to do with the Vikings’ dominance on the ground, but the line deserves a lot of credit for having the Purple rushing average about four inches less per carry than the best rushing team ever, the 1963 Cleveland Browns.

But enough about those who didn’t quite make the cut. Let’s talk about the Three Stars:

Third Star: Aundrae Allison

Aside from the passing game, one of the problems with the Vikings’ offense has been their lack of a return game (when Peterson wasn’t returning kicks). Troy Williamson was averaging a 23.8 yards a return, but didn’t have the ability to break one. Obviously, that’s not a problem with Aundrae Allison, who set a franchise record with a 103 yard kick return for a touchdown and who previously had a 60 yard return against Detroit and a 62 yard return against the Chargers. Allison’s averaging 37.1 yards per return and should be the starting kick returner from now on. He also caught two passes for 52 yards, one of which he turned a short pass into a 35 yard gain. Don’t look now, but it seems yet another rookie has decided to make a big impact for the Purple.

Second Star: Adrian Peterson

15 carries, 116 yards. That’s 7.73 YPC. You know what the ridiculous thing about that average is? It’s only his fourth best average for a game. Peterson’s 1197 rushing yards leads the NFL (Willie Parker’s still in second with 1097 yards) and his two rushing touchdowns brought his total to ten, second only to LaDainian Tomlinson. And the way he runs? Pure beauty. He worked Lions defender after Lions defender, whether it was with by running through, past or around them. Peterson’s carries are so amazing that I wish I understood the science and strategy of running with the ball, because I feel like only a true master would be able to properly appreciate everything he does.

First Star: Tarvaris Jackson

The Revolution is back and with it have come victories. Tarvaris had the best game of his career against the Lions, completing 18 of 24 passes for 204 yards and two touchdowns and ran for twenty yards on five carries. It was only the second time Tarvaris has broken 200 yards passing in the twelve games he’s played in. He was only sacked once and, while he did throw an interception, it was the only poor decision he made all game, and it happened in garbage time. Tarvaris’ new found comfort in the pocket has been a joy to watch—he’s using his mobility and strength to avoid sacks and buy time for his receivers, he’s hitting his receivers accurately on both short and long passes and he’s avoided making rally killing mistakes. His pass to Sidney Rice on a slant to convert a 3rd and 6 the play before Peterson’s second touchdown was a thing of beauty. It had the velocity and the accuracy necessary to get between the two defenders blanketing Rice and allow him to hold onto the ball despite being interfered with. Tarvaris wasn’t completing passes like that before the Oakland game. And if he continues to throw like that, well, you try stopping an offense featuring the Purple Jesus and an effective Tarvaris Revolution.

Pray for Interceptions

One of the Vikings strengths this year has been their ability to make big, momentum changing plays. They're currently second in the NFL with a +14 big play differential, and have had 30 big plays so far this season, also the second most. Of those 30 big plays, almost all of them have been made by the defense, which, considering how inert the Vikings pass game is, is not all that surprising.

The Vikings are going to need both their defense and their passing game to make big plays if they hope to upset the Chargers on Sunday. Defensively, the Vikings best hopes for a turnover will come when Philip Rivers drops back to pass. Rivers has ten turnovers so far this year, having thrown seven interceptions and lost three fumbles. He's also had two of his fumbles recovered by the Chargers as well. If the Vikings can get pressure on him, he'll give them the ball. The fact Cory Withrow will be playing for the Chargers will help the Vikings' pass rush, but if Antoine Winfield isn't on the field, it will probably be a moot point anyway, as he's one of the few defenders that the Vikings count on to help stop both the run and the pass.

The Vikings' defense isn't really likely to be what it decides the game, however, just like it hasn't been the deciding factor in any game so far this year (except for the Atlanta game). What it will come down to is the Vikings' ability to move the ball on offense, which means it will come down to their ability to pass the ball. The Tarvaris Revolution cannot be held down, and he'll be starting on Sunday.

And you know what? Contrary to what I said earlier this week, Tarvaris Jackson should be starting every game that he is healthy enough to play in. The Vikings are not making the playoffs this year, so it doesn't matter whether Kelly Holcomb or Brooks Bollinger gives the Vikings a (slightly) better chance to win. What matters is gathering enough information on Tarvaris to find out whether he is the quarterback of the future. If he's not, he's not, and the Vikings will have ample opportunity to find the quarterback of the future in the draft. If he starts hitting open receivers and learns when to take off, then he is. Either way, nine games of the Tarvaris Revolution should give the Vikings all the information they need to make the decision.

[If you're interested, Football Outsiders has a nice breakdown of the play that resulted in Visanthe Shiancoe's first touchdown catch for the Vikings]

The Chargers Through Their Last Three Games

Just a few weeks ago, the Vikings game against the Chargers looked very winnable. After four weeks, they were projected to finish under .500 and had absorbed some ugly losses. Now, they look like one of the best teams in the NFL and a likely playoff team.

After getting handled by the Chiefs in San Diego, the Chargers have finally started to play up to their talent. They're now in the top 5 in DVOA, are 9th in offensive DVOA and are 14th in defensive DVOA. They've won their last three games by a combined score of 104-27. Neither the bye week nor the wildfires could slow them down.

While Houston, Oakland and Denver all have worse defenses than the Vikings by DVOA. Only Oakland has a better pass defense than the Vikings, and none of them stop the run as well as the Vikings (you already knew that though).

Offensively, the Vikings are about as good at throwing the ball as Houston and Oakland, which is to say, that Houston and Oakland suck at throwing as well. Tarvaris Jackson will be back under center on Sunday, but will likely be without his leading receiver, Bobby Wade. That should mean more running plays, hopefully, which means more Purple Jesus and more Chester Taylor and hopefully more success. The Vikings will only be the second team the Chargers have faced this year with a potent rushing attack (New England being the other). It might not be enough to generate some offense for the Purple, but it's a reason to hope, which is better than nothing.

The Chargers took a little time to adjust to Norv Turner, but based on their last three games, they seem to have finally got it. That doesn't bode well for the Vikings, seeing as how the Chargers are amongst the most talented teams in the NFL.

[Tomorrow, I'll have more on Sunday's game, including a baseless, optimistic prediction, as well as thoughts on Bollinger v. Jackson and why Phillip Rivers might just be the difference maker in a Vikings win...]