"You Wait For Good Things"

The above quote from Brad Childress both explains the eighteen day wait for Tomlin's replacement and suggests that Leslie Frazier is going to be able to keep improving the Vikings' defense despite his "rocky stint" as Cincinnati's Defensive Coordinator. And I think he's right about that.

Frazier explains:

"If [defense] is your background," Frazier said, "it's a hard thing to let it go and trust. My personality, some people would say I'm a soft-spoken guy. But I have some strong convictions about certain things. Certain things, I'm not
necessarily going to compromise on."

Obviously (and thankfully) Childress isn't going to get involved on the defensive side of the ball. He didn't with Tomlin, and he won't with Frazier. It helps that Frazier is a disciple of the Tampa 2 (though really, who isn't these days?), even though his version of the scheme incorporates more blitzes than Tomlin's did.

That should be a good thing. If the Vikings retain Harris, linebacker will be amongst the deepest positions they have, with three quality players (possibly four if Greenway plays up to his potential) whose strength lies in blitzing and playing the run. Frazier's scheme should play to their strengths, allowing the Vikings to get pressure without having to rely so heavily on their defensive line.

What it will also likely do is shift the Vikings' focus in free agency from defensive end (of which there are few quality free agents) to cornerback. While Antoine Winfield is an elite corner, that stems as much from his tackling and ability against the run as it does his coverage ability. Fred Smoot is likely as good as gone. Cedric Griffin and Dovonte Edwards are both decent corners, but neither is likely to be in the Pro Bowl next year. Edwards didn't play last year, and while Griffin started as rookie, it would be best if he could remain as the Nickleback for another year. Luckily for the Vikings, it's a good year for cornerbacks in free agency. I can't say I would mind seeing the Bills starting corners from 2001 to 2003 reunited. Or seeing if Asante Samuel can set a record.

[Update: There's a breakdown of the Wide Recievers in the draft over at Rumors and Rants if you're interested. Just be careful--I don't want anyone getting hurt in the mad scramble to get over there. If you're smart, you'll pay particular attention to the recievers not named Johnson, Jarrett or Ginn, Jr. because those are the ones most likely to end up in Purple next year]

The Reason for the Wait

It turns out there was a reason for the Vikings to wait so long for a defensive coordinator--they were waiting for the Colts to be done with the playoffs. Welcome to the Purple, Leslie Frazier! Hopefully, you're even more successful than your predecessor.

Leslie Frazier, prior to adding his second Super Bowl Ring?

Some Background for Speculation

As everyone knows, the NFL really is a year round enterprise. All the end of the season does is allow people to fully concentrate on speculation. Obviously, with some money to spend, a high draft pick and an opening at a key coaching spot, there's a lot of room for Vikings' fans to join in the fray.

• Some candidates for the defensive coordinator position have finally emerged, and it appears that there was a reason for the delay—they were waiting to interview Leslie Frazier, the Colt’s special assistant and co-defensive backs coach. Frazier has some defensive coordinator experience, as he lead the Bengal’s defensive during the 2003-2004 season, Marvin Lewis’ first year as head coach. The Bengal’s defense was pretty bad that year, allowing 351.2 yards per game, fifth worst in the NFL. They were mediocre against the pass, allowing 212.6 yards per game and 138.6 rushing yards a game. That mediocrity showed up in the amount of points they allowed as well, as they gave up 24.0 per game. Of course, that team didn’t have anywhere near the talent the Vikings do. He also brings with him experience in the Tampa 2, and has worked with Childress before. Frazier seems to be the favorite and it seems like he has the ability to build on Tomlin’s success.

• The other intriguing candidate (at least to me) is Vikings’ linebacker coach Fred Pagac. Promoting from within has its benefits, such as continuity and knowledge of the players. What makes Pagac such an interesting candidate is the job he did with the linebackers this year. Under his tutelage, Napoleon Harris and E.J. Henderson turned in quality seasons after spending their previous time in purple looking lost. Pagac’s ability to get players to understand their jobs on the field bodes well for his ability to run a defense.

• With Dwight Freeney off the market, it’s looking more and more like the Vikings will be taking a defensive end in the draft. Those hoping for a wide receiver shouldn’t despair, however—this is a good year for receivers, and the Vikings should be able to pick up a talented player like Dwayne Bowe or Anthony Gonzalez with their second round pick.

• The Vikings are apparently persuing Jeff Garcia to be the starting quarterback. I can't say I'm all that excited about him, despite how well he played after Donovan McNabb got hurt. Obviously, I'm a huge backer of the Tarvaris Revolution and would like to see him start, but I'm also getting some crazy Brad Johnson type vibes from Garcia. Garcia played better last season than Johnson did in 2005, but it wasn't all that much better. And like Johnson, he's old (he turns 37 this month) and his play could fall off just as dramatically. Remember, this is the same Jeff Garcia that played so poorly he couldn't even stick in Detroit.

• While he hasn’t had any luck convincing the state to help him build a stadium, Zygi did make a smart decision earlier this week. I think he understood that now was not the best time to raise ticket prices, at least if he wanted to insure the Vikings had all of their home games televised.

So...Anyone Know Who the Vikings are Hiring?

Apparently, no one has a clue about who the Vikings are going to hire to replace Mike Tomlin. After Eagles' linebacker coach,Steve Spagnuolo (Childress' second choice after Tomlin last year and likely first choice this year) was hired by the Giants the day Tomlin was announced as the Steelers' head coach, all anyone has has been able to do is speculate. Kevin Seifert has three possibilities:

• "The first choice of coach Brad Childress -- and possibly the second and
third -- opted for another position.
• Unable to make a quick hire, the Vikings are waiting to interview an
assistant from this year's Super Bowl teams, Chicago and Indianapolis. Both
teams play a version of the Tampa-2 defense Tomlin employed last season in
Minnesota, minimizing the level of disruption that goes along with changing
coordinators.
• The Vikings already have settled on a candidate but have not announced it
for competitive or other reasons."

If I were more creative, I'd come up with some type of humorous fourth reason, such as Zygi deciding that he would take over the defense as part of his new hands on approach. Or maybe that the Vikings are in negotiations with Bud Grant to come back, and the lack of press coverage is due to the lack of cell phone coverage where Grant is hunting white tail. Or maybe Zygi is trying to convince a legendary Giants coach to come out of retirement. Then again, that hire would almost guarantee the same outcome as Randy Wittman's.

As you can see, I really have no idea what the Vikings's plans are. No one does. Nor am I able to weigh in on what they should do (sorry folks, but I'm not very knowledgable about random defensive position coaches) until some possible candidates are discussed. And, to be honest, I'd much rather find out about the Vikings' new defensive coordinator when he's hired than have it play out in the press like Tomlin's hiring by the Steelers was. Maybe, in this era of constant rumors and 24 hour coverage, it's refreshing to not be innundated by rumors and speculation. Or maybe, after four years at Georgetown, I'm just used to the secrecy.

A Coordinator Moves On

Make no mistake about it--losing Mike Tomlin hurts. Tomlin took an average defense and turned it into a unit that almost carried the Vikings and their stagnant offense to the playoffs. And now that he had a year of experience as a coordinator, the Vikings defense was poised to be special next year (with the right additions).

Instead, the effectiveness of the unit the Vikings were counting on to carry the load next season is suddenly in doubt. Rather than having a talented coordinator with connections to star free agents (see Rice, Simeon), the Vikings have to reconsider the very philosophies their defense is based on. Should they go out and get a defensive coordinator that utilizes the 3-4 to capitalize on their linebacker depth, Pat Williams All Pro play at nose tackle and slide Kevin Williams to defensive end? Do they stick with the Tampa 2, let Napoleon Harris go and concentrate on finding a defensive end that get to the quarterback? Or perhaps they should move towards a scheme based on blitzing and man to man coverage, making a shutdown corner to pair with Antoine Winfield the priority.

It's because of that uncertainty that Tomlin's departure hurts the most. It forces the Vikings' to focus on what type of defense they're going to play rather than what players they need to improve it. And really, there wasn't anything the Vikings could do about it. This isn't like when Scott Linehan left to become the Dolphins' Offensive Coordinator because Red was too cheap to pay him a coordinator's salary. Tomlin was going to become a head coach sooner than later and it's just the Vikings luck that Bill Cower's retirement opened up a great job with an ownership group willing to hire a young, inexperienced minority as a head coach. [I know this probably sounds racist but I wouldn't be surprised if the Rooneys had made it a point to hire a minority if possible, since they were the lead ownership group on the minority interview rule, otherwise known as the Rooney Rule.]

Unlike a lot of other Vikings' fans, I don't believe this ends any chance of success for 2007. While it would have been nice to have Tomlin around next year and in position to take over if Brad Childress and the Vikings failed to improve next year, a suitable replacement can be found that can keep the defense playing at a high level. Zygi Wilf has shown a willingness to pay for top notch coordinators and Brad Childress has already hired one good defensive coordinator. I don't know who the candidates to replace Tomlin are yet, but I know the the Vikings should be able to get a top notch replacement thanks to Zygi's open wallet, Childress' ability to identify quality defensive coaches and the massive amount of talent they have coming back. Hopefully, when they identify the next Mike Tomlin this time, he actually sticks around for more than a year.