Maurice Hicks:
The Vikings waived Maurice Hicks yesterday, ending what was a failed free agent pick up. Hicks was brought in to improve the Vikings special teams, specifically their return games, even though he hadn't shown the ability to be anything other than a mediocre returner (as I pointed out when he signed). His signing was an example of valuing experience over talent, and it came back to hurt the Vikings, as he had a key fumble on a kickoff return against Tampa Bay, had 9 returns of less than 20 yards and never once returned a kickoff more than 40 yards. For a team built on defense and the running game (i.e., field position), having a good kick returner is important, which is why Hicks' signing was so damaging to the Vikings last year.
The Combine:
The Combine started yesterday, and while it's nowhere important, it can be a useful tool in evaluating draft prospects for the teams that approach it properly. Based on this interview with Rick Speilman, I think the Vikings do it right (h/t ESPN NFC North Blog). They aren't going to give too much weight to the workouts, but they are going to use it as a way to get a handle on the people these draft prospects are. The Vikings have done a good job in the draft since the infamous 2005 draft, and their approach to the Combine has certainly contributed to that.
Tackle Depth:
One of the things that I (along with most Viking's fans) have forgotten about is the impending resolution of the Williams Wall's legal battle over their suspension. Depending on the outcome, the Vikings might be short both of their starting tackles for the first four games of the season. And, even if they aren't suspended, the Williams' backups, Fred Evans and Ellis Wyms, are both free agents this year (although Evans is only a restricted free agent). The Vikings took LaTroy Guion in the fifth round last year to help at tackle, but additional depth would be nice, especially if Guion isn't ready to contribute after spending last year adjusting to the NFL. The National Football Post has a breakdown of the available free agent defensive tackles, and someone like Ryan Boschetti or Grady Jackson would be a welcome addition to the defensive line.
Showing posts with label Defense. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Defense. Show all posts
Thursday, February 19, 2009
Monday, December 15, 2008
Domination and Hope
For the first time this year, I actually think the Vikings have a chance to make a run in the playoffs. Yesterday’s win was that good. That was a playoff team, that was undefeated in its own stadium, and the Vikings just ran them off their own field. They couldn’t pass, they couldn’t run and they couldn’t stop Adrian Peterson OR Tarvaris Jackson. And if the Vikings can duplicate that effort in the playoffs, they can beat any team in the NFC.
As usual, everything started with the defense. Coming into the game, the Cardinals were 4th in DVOA when passing, were 8th in adjusted sack rate, Kurt Warner was 2nd among quarterbacks in DYAR and Larry Fitzgerald (2nd in WR DYAR), Anquan Boldin (4th in DYAR) and Steve Breaston (13th in DYAR) were all in the top 15 among wide receivers. The Cardinals have a very, very good passing attack. Kurt Warner was averaging 7.26 yards per passing attempt, but on Sunday, the Vikings held him to 5.1 yards per attempt, despite the fact that the Cardinals called almost 50 pass plays before they brought in Matt Lienart. And it wasn’t just one facet of the pass defense that dominated. The defensive line was all over Warner, sacking him four times and hitting him countless times. Equally important, however, was the coverage and the tackling by the defensive backs and linebackers. The Cardinals were second in the NFL in yards after the catch, but on Sunday, the Vikings were bringing the Cardinals down as soon as they caught the ball (except, of course, for Jermaine Urban's touchdown). It was a team effort too, with Ben Leber,
And speaking of Tarvaris Jackson, that was the quarterback the Vikings were hoping to see Tarvaris Jackson become this year. He was accurate, poised and threw a good deep ball. His pass to Berrian was perfect. And I mean perfect—he hit him in stride, fitting the ball in the one spot that it had to be to be caught (Berrian, while single covered, was covered pretty well). I know that the Cardinals don’t have the best pass defense in the league (19th in DVOA against the pass and 28th in opposing passer rating), but we haven’t seen that Tarvaris Jackson before. He’s had no problem being indecisive and inaccurate against bad pass defenses before, but he wasn’t against the Cardinals. He was accurate, completing 65% of his passes, he threw deep, with touchdown passes of 41 and 59 yards, and he was comfortable in the red zone, throwing two other touchdowns, including a great throw to Sidney Rice. He averaged 7.8 yards per pass attempt and he provided the passing attack that the Vikings need to be Super Bowl contenders. And make no mistake about it—the Vikings can win the Super Bowl with this Tarvaris Jackson. I’m not saying they will, or that this is the real Tarvaris Jackson (though we’ll have a much better idea after the Vikings’ play the Falcons and Giants), but if Tarvaris plays like this in the playoffs, the Vikings are a legitimate contender for the Super Bowl. And it’s probably worth mentioning that they could still get a bye if they win out and the Panthers or Giants lose out.
Finally, congratulations are in order for the Purple Jesus, who set the Vikings’ single season rushing record with his first carry of the second half. His 165 yards on Sunday have him well on the way to the rushing title, especially considering that he’s 160 yards up on Michael Turner, with two games to play, and, unlike Turner, he doesn’t have to face the Williams Wall on Sunday. He’s going to win the rushing title, and he’s the main reason that a team that’s featured Tarvaris Jackson and Gus Frerotte at quarterback has a good enough offense to win their division, get the third seed in the playoffs (and maybe even a bye). If that’s not enough to win the MVP award, I don’t know what is.
Thursday, September 25, 2008
A Tale of Two Lines
The Vikings-Titans match up will feature two of the most hyped defensive lines coming into the season. We all know about the Vikings' line, but the Titans, fresh off a playoff berth, feature Albert Haynesworth, one of the only tackles that can be fairly compared to Kevin Williams, a Pro Bowl defensive end in Kyle Vanden Bosch, and Javon Kearse, who while getting up in age, is still a big name defensive end.
And unlike the Vikings line, the Titans have been living up to the hype all year. They have 11 sacks already almost all of which have come from their defensive line. Haynesworth has 3, and Vanden Bosch, Kearse and DT Tony Brown have 2 each. With those sacks have come a 9.9% adjusted sack rate, the third best in the NFL, and well above the NFL average of 7.0%. They've also held opposing running games to 3.54 adjusted line yards, the 7th best in the NFL. And these totals aren't out of line for the Titans, as they've finished 9th and 11th in ASR in the last two years that they weren't missing Haynesworth because he was hurt or impersonating a Riverdancer.
The Vikings will try and counter with an offensive line that is still missing its starting left tackle. But, while they've been below average, allowing 6 sacks and an adjusted sack rate of 7.5%, the 18th best in the league, they're still doing better than the last three years. The Vikings offensive line's best finish in ASR was 22nd, in 2006. Last year, they were 30th, and they were 28th in 2005. Of course, they've always been able to run the ball and they're 2nd in the league, behind Denver, with 5.03 adjusted line yards.
The Titans offensive line is more well rounded, but they haven't had quite the same success running the ball as the Purple. While they're 17th overall in Adjusted Line yards, with 4.15, they were 4th in Adjusted Sack Rate last year and have been even better this year, allowing only 2 sacks in their first three games and with a 2.8% ASR, they have the second best Adjusted Sack Rate in the NFL.
That means the Vikings' defensive line will not have an easy task on Sunday if they plan on meeting their preseason hype. While the new Purple People Eaters have looked impressive the last two weeks, and especially against the Panthers, their ASR still isn't much better than it was last year. The last three years, the Purple have been 28th, 31st and 21st overall in ASR. This year, they're 18th, but they're still below average, with a 6.8% ASR. They've still been dominating the run, holding opponents to a league best 2.66 adjusted line yards, but as we've seen, that's not enough to be the kind of dominant defense line that can carry a team to the playoffs.
For the Vikings' to be successful, they need their pass rush to get to the quarterback like the Titans' pass rush has. They've shown they can do it against the Colts and especially against the Panthers. They need to be able to do it against the Titans as well if they want to continue to climb out of the 0-2 hole they've dug for themselves.
And unlike the Vikings line, the Titans have been living up to the hype all year. They have 11 sacks already almost all of which have come from their defensive line. Haynesworth has 3, and Vanden Bosch, Kearse and DT Tony Brown have 2 each. With those sacks have come a 9.9% adjusted sack rate, the third best in the NFL, and well above the NFL average of 7.0%. They've also held opposing running games to 3.54 adjusted line yards, the 7th best in the NFL. And these totals aren't out of line for the Titans, as they've finished 9th and 11th in ASR in the last two years that they weren't missing Haynesworth because he was hurt or impersonating a Riverdancer.
The Vikings will try and counter with an offensive line that is still missing its starting left tackle. But, while they've been below average, allowing 6 sacks and an adjusted sack rate of 7.5%, the 18th best in the league, they're still doing better than the last three years. The Vikings offensive line's best finish in ASR was 22nd, in 2006. Last year, they were 30th, and they were 28th in 2005. Of course, they've always been able to run the ball and they're 2nd in the league, behind Denver, with 5.03 adjusted line yards.
The Titans offensive line is more well rounded, but they haven't had quite the same success running the ball as the Purple. While they're 17th overall in Adjusted Line yards, with 4.15, they were 4th in Adjusted Sack Rate last year and have been even better this year, allowing only 2 sacks in their first three games and with a 2.8% ASR, they have the second best Adjusted Sack Rate in the NFL.
That means the Vikings' defensive line will not have an easy task on Sunday if they plan on meeting their preseason hype. While the new Purple People Eaters have looked impressive the last two weeks, and especially against the Panthers, their ASR still isn't much better than it was last year. The last three years, the Purple have been 28th, 31st and 21st overall in ASR. This year, they're 18th, but they're still below average, with a 6.8% ASR. They've still been dominating the run, holding opponents to a league best 2.66 adjusted line yards, but as we've seen, that's not enough to be the kind of dominant defense line that can carry a team to the playoffs.
For the Vikings' to be successful, they need their pass rush to get to the quarterback like the Titans' pass rush has. They've shown they can do it against the Colts and especially against the Panthers. They need to be able to do it against the Titans as well if they want to continue to climb out of the 0-2 hole they've dug for themselves.
Monday, April 28, 2008
Wrapping Up the Draft: Almost an Unqualified Success
The Vikings' draft was almost an unqualified success. They were able to draft players to add depth at almost all of the positions they needed to add depth at except tackle, and they ignored a position, tight end, where they have depth but don't have any quality players And while I'm not happy that the Vikings didn't draft a tight end that might actually be worth throwing to, the fact that they didn't draft a tackle means they didn't add any depth to the position at which they'll likely need depth the soonest.
After trading their fourth round pick to draft Tyrell Johnson, who was perhaps the top safety in the draft, I wrote that the Purple's trade cost them a draft pick they would need if they wanted to find players at all of their positions of need, specifically focusing on quarterbacks that were likely to be gone by the fifth round. I was wrong that the Vikings wouldn't have their choice of quarterbacks, as Andre Woodson, Josh Johnson and John David Booty were all available to the Vikings in the fifth round (or, at least, were available after the Vikings moved up). I was right, however, about the fact that the Purple traded away their chance to add depth at all the positions they needed to, as they missed the chance to pick up any of the three tackles that were available with their pick in the fourth round and were off the board by the time they went on the clock in the fifth round.
While I liked seeing the Purple pick up the eventual successor for Pat Williams late in the fifth round (Letroy Guion from Florida State) and the successor for Matt Birk (John Sullivan from Notre Dame) and a wide receiver with punt return experience (Jaymar Johnson from Jacksonville State) in the sixth round, I'm not sure that I like the choice of John David Booty as the Vikings' developmental quarterback. While Booty has the accuracy and ability to make all the reads needed in the West Coast offense, he is a pocket passer and doesn't have that good of an arm. His upside is that of a league average quarterback, unlike Andre Woodson and Josh Johnson, who could both turn into stars, as they both have similar accuracy, ability to run an offense and combine that with a good arm and the ability to make plays with their feet. And neither Woodson or Johnson are likely to inspire any awful jokes. If anything, I think Johnson was probably the best developmental quarterback available, due to his speed and arm strength. Like Tarvaris, he played for a 1-AA school, but unlike Tarvaris, he was statisically dominate, completing 68% of his passes in his 3+ years of starting and throwing 43 touchdowns to 2 interceptions his senior year. And he had a good coach with NFL experience in Jim Harbaugh.
So while the Vikings may have answered the questions about who will succeed Darren Sharper, Pat Williams and Matt Birk and picked up a receiver that can return punts, they left open the question as to who will step into the lineup if Bryant McKinnie is suspended for four games or if Ryan Cook doesn't improve and they choose the developmental quarterback with the least upside. So while it's something of a waste of time to try and grade a draft immediately after it's completed, the Vikings choice not to draft a tackle and to pick Booty over Woodson and Johnson mean that the Purple won't receive an "A" from me, but the depth they added at other positions and the fact that Jacksonville gave up more draft picks to move up and draft Derrick Harvey than the Vikings did to trade for Jared Allen means that the Purple's draft was still relatively successful.
After trading their fourth round pick to draft Tyrell Johnson, who was perhaps the top safety in the draft, I wrote that the Purple's trade cost them a draft pick they would need if they wanted to find players at all of their positions of need, specifically focusing on quarterbacks that were likely to be gone by the fifth round. I was wrong that the Vikings wouldn't have their choice of quarterbacks, as Andre Woodson, Josh Johnson and John David Booty were all available to the Vikings in the fifth round (or, at least, were available after the Vikings moved up). I was right, however, about the fact that the Purple traded away their chance to add depth at all the positions they needed to, as they missed the chance to pick up any of the three tackles that were available with their pick in the fourth round and were off the board by the time they went on the clock in the fifth round.
While I liked seeing the Purple pick up the eventual successor for Pat Williams late in the fifth round (Letroy Guion from Florida State) and the successor for Matt Birk (John Sullivan from Notre Dame) and a wide receiver with punt return experience (Jaymar Johnson from Jacksonville State) in the sixth round, I'm not sure that I like the choice of John David Booty as the Vikings' developmental quarterback. While Booty has the accuracy and ability to make all the reads needed in the West Coast offense, he is a pocket passer and doesn't have that good of an arm. His upside is that of a league average quarterback, unlike Andre Woodson and Josh Johnson, who could both turn into stars, as they both have similar accuracy, ability to run an offense and combine that with a good arm and the ability to make plays with their feet. And neither Woodson or Johnson are likely to inspire any awful jokes. If anything, I think Johnson was probably the best developmental quarterback available, due to his speed and arm strength. Like Tarvaris, he played for a 1-AA school, but unlike Tarvaris, he was statisically dominate, completing 68% of his passes in his 3+ years of starting and throwing 43 touchdowns to 2 interceptions his senior year. And he had a good coach with NFL experience in Jim Harbaugh.
So while the Vikings may have answered the questions about who will succeed Darren Sharper, Pat Williams and Matt Birk and picked up a receiver that can return punts, they left open the question as to who will step into the lineup if Bryant McKinnie is suspended for four games or if Ryan Cook doesn't improve and they choose the developmental quarterback with the least upside. So while it's something of a waste of time to try and grade a draft immediately after it's completed, the Vikings choice not to draft a tackle and to pick Booty over Woodson and Johnson mean that the Purple won't receive an "A" from me, but the depth they added at other positions and the fact that Jacksonville gave up more draft picks to move up and draft Derrick Harvey than the Vikings did to trade for Jared Allen means that the Purple's draft was still relatively successful.
Thursday, December 06, 2007
If You Even Want to Call It an Offense...
The 49ers offense is one of the most pathetic offenses in the NFL. If it weren't for the fact that they can run the ball (an 8th best 4.2 yards per carry), they would run away with the distinction, because they can't do anything else.
The 49ers cannot:
For this game, it shouldn't matter that Ray Edwards was suspended four games for steroid use, nor should it matter that his likely replacement, Erasmus James, is battling knee problems. Antoine Winfield should be back and the Vikings defense should dominate a putrid 49ers offense.
The 49ers cannot:
- Pass the Ball--they are averaging a league worst 3.99 yards per attempt. (The Vikings are averaging 7.02 YPA). And no, it doesn't help that they have Trent Dilfer under center
- Protect the Quarterback--they have given up 43 sacks, tied for 30th in the NFL. They are also have a league worst negative pass play percentage of 13.3%, which means that they make every defense look like the best in the league at creating sacks and interceptions. They're also have the second worst adjusted sack rate, at 9.8%.
- Protect the Ball--the Niners have thrown 15 interceptions and fumbled the ball 9 times, four of which the other team recovered.
- Establish Good Field Position--with an average kickoff return of 22.4 yards and punt return of 9.3 yards, the 49ers special teams haven't helped their offense out. Maurice Hicks, their kick returner, only has one return for more than 40 yards, and Michael Lewis, their punt returner, only has three, despite have 56 kick returns and 40 punt returns. The Niners have yet to return a kick or punt for a touchdown and Lewis has also fumbled three punts.
- Score Points--San Francisco's average of 13.7 points per game is the worst in the NFL. They've scored less than 20 points in ten of their twelve games, only hitting the twenty point mark against against the Cardinals in Week 1 (20 points) and Week 12 (31 points)
For this game, it shouldn't matter that Ray Edwards was suspended four games for steroid use, nor should it matter that his likely replacement, Erasmus James, is battling knee problems. Antoine Winfield should be back and the Vikings defense should dominate a putrid 49ers offense.
Friday, November 02, 2007
Pray for Interceptions
One of the Vikings strengths this year has been their ability to make big, momentum changing plays. They're currently second in the NFL with a +14 big play differential, and have had 30 big plays so far this season, also the second most. Of those 30 big plays, almost all of them have been made by the defense, which, considering how inert the Vikings pass game is, is not all that surprising.
The Vikings are going to need both their defense and their passing game to make big plays if they hope to upset the Chargers on Sunday. Defensively, the Vikings best hopes for a turnover will come when Philip Rivers drops back to pass. Rivers has ten turnovers so far this year, having thrown seven interceptions and lost three fumbles. He's also had two of his fumbles recovered by the Chargers as well. If the Vikings can get pressure on him, he'll give them the ball. The fact Cory Withrow will be playing for the Chargers will help the Vikings' pass rush, but if Antoine Winfield isn't on the field, it will probably be a moot point anyway, as he's one of the few defenders that the Vikings count on to help stop both the run and the pass.
The Vikings' defense isn't really likely to be what it decides the game, however, just like it hasn't been the deciding factor in any game so far this year (except for the Atlanta game). What it will come down to is the Vikings' ability to move the ball on offense, which means it will come down to their ability to pass the ball. The Tarvaris Revolution cannot be held down, and he'll be starting on Sunday.
And you know what? Contrary to what I said earlier this week, Tarvaris Jackson should be starting every game that he is healthy enough to play in. The Vikings are not making the playoffs this year, so it doesn't matter whether Kelly Holcomb or Brooks Bollinger gives the Vikings a (slightly) better chance to win. What matters is gathering enough information on Tarvaris to find out whether he is the quarterback of the future. If he's not, he's not, and the Vikings will have ample opportunity to find the quarterback of the future in the draft. If he starts hitting open receivers and learns when to take off, then he is. Either way, nine games of the Tarvaris Revolution should give the Vikings all the information they need to make the decision.
[If you're interested, Football Outsiders has a nice breakdown of the play that resulted in Visanthe Shiancoe's first touchdown catch for the Vikings]
The Vikings are going to need both their defense and their passing game to make big plays if they hope to upset the Chargers on Sunday. Defensively, the Vikings best hopes for a turnover will come when Philip Rivers drops back to pass. Rivers has ten turnovers so far this year, having thrown seven interceptions and lost three fumbles. He's also had two of his fumbles recovered by the Chargers as well. If the Vikings can get pressure on him, he'll give them the ball. The fact Cory Withrow will be playing for the Chargers will help the Vikings' pass rush, but if Antoine Winfield isn't on the field, it will probably be a moot point anyway, as he's one of the few defenders that the Vikings count on to help stop both the run and the pass.
The Vikings' defense isn't really likely to be what it decides the game, however, just like it hasn't been the deciding factor in any game so far this year (except for the Atlanta game). What it will come down to is the Vikings' ability to move the ball on offense, which means it will come down to their ability to pass the ball. The Tarvaris Revolution cannot be held down, and he'll be starting on Sunday.
And you know what? Contrary to what I said earlier this week, Tarvaris Jackson should be starting every game that he is healthy enough to play in. The Vikings are not making the playoffs this year, so it doesn't matter whether Kelly Holcomb or Brooks Bollinger gives the Vikings a (slightly) better chance to win. What matters is gathering enough information on Tarvaris to find out whether he is the quarterback of the future. If he's not, he's not, and the Vikings will have ample opportunity to find the quarterback of the future in the draft. If he starts hitting open receivers and learns when to take off, then he is. Either way, nine games of the Tarvaris Revolution should give the Vikings all the information they need to make the decision.
[If you're interested, Football Outsiders has a nice breakdown of the play that resulted in Visanthe Shiancoe's first touchdown catch for the Vikings]
Monday, October 15, 2007
All is Joy and Light
I'm sure I'm not the only one that is looking at this team, and at this season, with a lot more optimism than they were before Sunday's game. Aside from the Purple Jesus' dominating performance, there was a lot to like on Sunday, including an offense that looked competent outside of the Purple Jesus. And while the defense did give up 31 points, their most this year, I think it was the exception, rather than the rule.
Finally, an Offense:
For their first offensive play, the Vikings lined up in a single back formation, with three wide outs. Chester Taylor was in the backfield and after the snap, he got the ball and turned it into a six yard gain. Something we've all seen before, right? Well...sort of. After handing the ball off, Tarvaris Jackson faked a hand off to a Viking who had been split wide and was running a reverse. That player? Adrian Peterson. It was the first sign that Brad Childress and Darren Bevell have figured out how to run an offense. While they never actually handed Peterson the ball on a reverse, they put the thought out there and made da Bears, and all of the Vikings future opponents, have to account for Peterson at all times, even when Chester Taylor is the only Viking in the backfield.
That wasn't the only play that made me think the Vikings offensive plan was a good one. The Purple did not hesitate to take shots down field (including a deep pass to Adrian Peterson) and the routes run were deeper than they used to be, even if by only a few yards. The only place the Vikings' passing game was lacking was in the execution. I counted five dropped passes by receivers that were perfectly thrown and, while I wasn't counting Tarvaris' overthrows, he missed his fair share of open receivers, most notably an overthrown pop pass to a wide open Tony Richardson. Tarvaris also seemed hesitant to run, leaving two first downs on the table by choosing to throw a pass instead. Whether that was due to his groin injury, coaching or just a young player mistake, it's important that he figure out when to run, as his speed, strength and elusiveness are a big part of his value as a quarterback.
A Flashback on Defense:
We Vikings fans have been spoiled recently by our defense's ability to prevent other teams from scoring. The Purple's defense, on average, has have held their opponents under twenty points a game during the Childress era, and have held their opponents under thirty in 18 of the 20 games prior to Sunday. That's pretty good folks, and that's reason number 1 that I think Sunday was a fluke, rather than the start of disturbing trend.
Reason number 2 is the way da Bears scored their points. One touchdown came on a play where Antoine Winfield tripped and fell. Another came on a punt return by Devin Hester (nothing to be ashamed of-that punt just didn't quite get out of bounds like it was supposed to). In fact, all of da Bears touchdowns came on big plays, with the shortest one being a 33 yard pass to Muhsin Muhammed. Now, if the Vikings had given up a lot of big plays in the passing game prior to Sunday, I'd be worried. They haven't, however, and the Vikings play a defense designed specifically to prevent big plays. There were some breakdowns on Sunday, and the Vikings need to figure out what they were, and how they happened. And then they need to fix them. Their track record under Childress says they'll be able to do so, which is why this game will be a fluke, just like the other two games the Vikings allowed their opponents to break thirty.
Finally, an Offense:
For their first offensive play, the Vikings lined up in a single back formation, with three wide outs. Chester Taylor was in the backfield and after the snap, he got the ball and turned it into a six yard gain. Something we've all seen before, right? Well...sort of. After handing the ball off, Tarvaris Jackson faked a hand off to a Viking who had been split wide and was running a reverse. That player? Adrian Peterson. It was the first sign that Brad Childress and Darren Bevell have figured out how to run an offense. While they never actually handed Peterson the ball on a reverse, they put the thought out there and made da Bears, and all of the Vikings future opponents, have to account for Peterson at all times, even when Chester Taylor is the only Viking in the backfield.
That wasn't the only play that made me think the Vikings offensive plan was a good one. The Purple did not hesitate to take shots down field (including a deep pass to Adrian Peterson) and the routes run were deeper than they used to be, even if by only a few yards. The only place the Vikings' passing game was lacking was in the execution. I counted five dropped passes by receivers that were perfectly thrown and, while I wasn't counting Tarvaris' overthrows, he missed his fair share of open receivers, most notably an overthrown pop pass to a wide open Tony Richardson. Tarvaris also seemed hesitant to run, leaving two first downs on the table by choosing to throw a pass instead. Whether that was due to his groin injury, coaching or just a young player mistake, it's important that he figure out when to run, as his speed, strength and elusiveness are a big part of his value as a quarterback.
A Flashback on Defense:
We Vikings fans have been spoiled recently by our defense's ability to prevent other teams from scoring. The Purple's defense, on average, has have held their opponents under twenty points a game during the Childress era, and have held their opponents under thirty in 18 of the 20 games prior to Sunday. That's pretty good folks, and that's reason number 1 that I think Sunday was a fluke, rather than the start of disturbing trend.
Reason number 2 is the way da Bears scored their points. One touchdown came on a play where Antoine Winfield tripped and fell. Another came on a punt return by Devin Hester (nothing to be ashamed of-that punt just didn't quite get out of bounds like it was supposed to). In fact, all of da Bears touchdowns came on big plays, with the shortest one being a 33 yard pass to Muhsin Muhammed. Now, if the Vikings had given up a lot of big plays in the passing game prior to Sunday, I'd be worried. They haven't, however, and the Vikings play a defense designed specifically to prevent big plays. There were some breakdowns on Sunday, and the Vikings need to figure out what they were, and how they happened. And then they need to fix them. Their track record under Childress says they'll be able to do so, which is why this game will be a fluke, just like the other two games the Vikings allowed their opponents to break thirty.
Wednesday, September 12, 2007
The Lions Offense
In Week 14 of last year, the Vikings defense held the Lions to -4 rushing yards in a game. Of course, the Lions only ran the ball ten times, opting, like pretty much every other team, to attack the Purple through the air. They’re likely to continue that pass first strategy on Sunday, considering they’ve added Calvin Johnson to a potent air attack.
Luckily for the Vikings, they’ve improved their pass defense, specifically their pass rush. They turned in a -52.9% DVOA against the pass in Week 1, the 7th best VOA total. This was a vast improvement over their below average DVOA of 3.7% in 2006. Not all that surprising, given their six sacks and two interceptions. [Note: The 2007 numbers have not been adjusted for opponent, while the 2006 numbers have.]
The Lions’ air attack was also improved in Week 1, with a 17.3% VOA, 9th best in the league. That was much better than the -.02% DVOA in 2006. Aside from getting to play a porous pass defense, there were a few other reasons for the improvement. The Lions’ negative pass play percentage dropped from 12.9% to 10.52%. They also gave up half as many sacks as their 2006 average, only giving up two to the Raiders. While that doesn’t sound great, it’s much better than the 3.94 per game they averaged last year. The Raiders anemic pass rush probably had a lot to do with it, as the Lions only addition on the line was Edwin Mulitalo at left guard. Mulitalo started four games for the Ravens in 2006 before losing his job in Week 5. He’s not exactly a Steve Hutchinson like addition, to say the least.
The Lions offense also benefited from what seems to be a much improved rushing game, with Tatum Bell going for 87 yards on 15 carries and a touchdown. In fact, they had the NFL’s best rushing VOA at 38.6%. Of course, there was nowhere for them to go but up, as they finished with an NFL worst -24.7% DVOA when rushing the ball, but going from worst to first is still surprising. Also, their 5.14 yards per carry was the sixth best in Week 1. The Raiders weren’t that bad against the run last year either, allowing the 11th least YPC (3.96) and a -1.6% DVOA against the run, the 16th best total.
Statistics with small sample sizes can do funny things. In this case, they show a Lions offense that’s amongst the best in the NFL at running the ball while still featuring a potent air attack. The thing is, the Vikings defense is still quite capable of stopping the run, as they clamped down on a Falcons team that was the best in the league last year at running the ball. And the Purple also discovered a pass rush, something they’ll continue to display against a Lions offensive line that gives up sacks like they’re good things. Look for the defense to spend a lot of time in the backfield with Jon Kitna on Sunday. If the Vikings create fewer than two turnovers, I’ll be shocked.
[All stats in this post are from Football Outsiders and Cold, Hard Football Facts]
Wednesday, September 05, 2007
The Falcons Offense
You know what the best part about the regular season is? Rather than having to discuss things like Belicheck v. Childress, dog fighting, roster cuts, coaching searches or any of that other incidental stuff that isn't football, we get to talk about the game. And it's a real game, that counts. And the Vikings, lucky them, get to play a team that they match up against perfectly on defense. The Falcons are a running team, with a shaky quarterback and a group of receivers that like to drop passes. And we all know that's exactly the kind of team that has no chance against the Vikings defense.
In seven games against the Vikings, Joey Harrington has completed 161 of his 283 attempts (56.9%) for 1680 yards. He's thrown 8 touchdowns and 14 interceptions while being sacked 12 times. That works out to a quarterback rating of 63.04, or slightly worse than his career rating of 68.1. Not exactly fear inducing numbers, that's for sure.
Harrington isn't the only reason not to be worried about the Falcons passing game. His receivers are pretty awful as well. Joe Horn was the only one who posted a positive DVOA (37.1%) or DPAR (20.7) last year, and he's 35 years old. Roddy White and Michael Jenkins both turned in Troy Williamson like seasons last year, with -.5 and -1.4 DPAR and -16.5% and -17.7% DVOA respectively. Both of them had lower catch percentages than Williamson, hauling in only 47% of the passes thrown their way.
The only real threat in their passing game is their tight end, Alge Crumpler. Last year, he was fourth in the NFL in yards amongst tight ends and second in touchdowns. He was also Michael Vick's favorite target by a long, as Vick threw twenty more passes to him then to any of his wide receivers. Crumpler hauled in 54% of those 103 passes, finishing the season with a 15.5 DPAR and 10.3% DVOA. I'd be a lot more worried about him if it weren't for the addition of a healthy Chad Greenway to the linebackers.
The Falcons awful passing game means that they'll have to rely on their running game to move the ball on offense. And while Jerious Norwood lead a terrific running game that averaged 5.46 yards per carry (1st in the NFL) with a 21.3 DPAR, 35.7% DVOA (3rd amongst running backs) and 53% success rate, the Williams brothers will have something to say about that. They lead the league by only allowing 2.83 YPC last year.
What all of this means is that it's very likely the Falcons offense is going to ignore the Patriots model of attacking the Vikings defense and challenge the Purple's superb run defense with their punishing running game. And I'm sure Pat Williams, Kevin Williams and the line backers are looking forward to it.
In seven games against the Vikings, Joey Harrington has completed 161 of his 283 attempts (56.9%) for 1680 yards. He's thrown 8 touchdowns and 14 interceptions while being sacked 12 times. That works out to a quarterback rating of 63.04, or slightly worse than his career rating of 68.1. Not exactly fear inducing numbers, that's for sure.
Harrington isn't the only reason not to be worried about the Falcons passing game. His receivers are pretty awful as well. Joe Horn was the only one who posted a positive DVOA (37.1%) or DPAR (20.7) last year, and he's 35 years old. Roddy White and Michael Jenkins both turned in Troy Williamson like seasons last year, with -.5 and -1.4 DPAR and -16.5% and -17.7% DVOA respectively. Both of them had lower catch percentages than Williamson, hauling in only 47% of the passes thrown their way.
The only real threat in their passing game is their tight end, Alge Crumpler. Last year, he was fourth in the NFL in yards amongst tight ends and second in touchdowns. He was also Michael Vick's favorite target by a long, as Vick threw twenty more passes to him then to any of his wide receivers. Crumpler hauled in 54% of those 103 passes, finishing the season with a 15.5 DPAR and 10.3% DVOA. I'd be a lot more worried about him if it weren't for the addition of a healthy Chad Greenway to the linebackers.
The Falcons awful passing game means that they'll have to rely on their running game to move the ball on offense. And while Jerious Norwood lead a terrific running game that averaged 5.46 yards per carry (1st in the NFL) with a 21.3 DPAR, 35.7% DVOA (3rd amongst running backs) and 53% success rate, the Williams brothers will have something to say about that. They lead the league by only allowing 2.83 YPC last year.
What all of this means is that it's very likely the Falcons offense is going to ignore the Patriots model of attacking the Vikings defense and challenge the Purple's superb run defense with their punishing running game. And I'm sure Pat Williams, Kevin Williams and the line backers are looking forward to it.
Tuesday, August 28, 2007
Unanswered Defensive Questions
Remember when Brian Robison and Ray Edwards were the Truth, the Answer, the Solution? Remember when they were going to team with a healthy Erasmus James to crash down upon opposing quarterbacks with unstoppable force?
Yeah...That was fun while it lasted.
Robison, Edwards and James (who was in for 18 plays) couldn't get past the Seahawks backup left tackle on Saturday. It's definitely not a good sign that a team can keep its All Pro LT on the bench and still not have any problems keeping the Vikings away from its quarterback. And it's not like the ends were opening things up for everyone else either, as the Vikings failed to record a sack. The good thing is that James was seeing his first action of the year and he didn't have any setbacks. The bad thing is that, well, the Vikings only had 30 sacks last year (7th least in the NFL), despite the fact other teams dropped back to pass 629 times against them(Most in the NFL). The Vikings weren't planning on counting on Edwards and Robison to turn around their pass rush--that's James' job. And while he didn't accomplish much in his 18 plays, his knee responded well. Finding out whether or not he can get to the quarterback will have to wait. It's too bad we already know that the other starting end cannot.
The Vikings' also avoided providing more info on which of their five safeties they are going to keep. Darren Sharper and Dwight Smith are locks for the team, which means Mike Doss, Greg Blue and Tank Williams are fighting for two roster spots. Doss didn't play against the Seahawks due to a calf injury, and neither Blue nor Williams made too much of an impact that I saw. Due to an undisclosed injury to Tank Williams and the fact that Doss continues to miss practice, it appears that Greg Blue is going to have all the opportunity in the world to win a roster spot against Dallas on Thursday. He's already got an advantage because he's younger and he's cheaper. He also, as you may recall, made "JACKED UP" last year for a hit against Buffalo. Definitely doesn't hurt.
Yeah...That was fun while it lasted.
Robison, Edwards and James (who was in for 18 plays) couldn't get past the Seahawks backup left tackle on Saturday. It's definitely not a good sign that a team can keep its All Pro LT on the bench and still not have any problems keeping the Vikings away from its quarterback. And it's not like the ends were opening things up for everyone else either, as the Vikings failed to record a sack. The good thing is that James was seeing his first action of the year and he didn't have any setbacks. The bad thing is that, well, the Vikings only had 30 sacks last year (7th least in the NFL), despite the fact other teams dropped back to pass 629 times against them(Most in the NFL). The Vikings weren't planning on counting on Edwards and Robison to turn around their pass rush--that's James' job. And while he didn't accomplish much in his 18 plays, his knee responded well. Finding out whether or not he can get to the quarterback will have to wait. It's too bad we already know that the other starting end cannot.
The Vikings' also avoided providing more info on which of their five safeties they are going to keep. Darren Sharper and Dwight Smith are locks for the team, which means Mike Doss, Greg Blue and Tank Williams are fighting for two roster spots. Doss didn't play against the Seahawks due to a calf injury, and neither Blue nor Williams made too much of an impact that I saw. Due to an undisclosed injury to Tank Williams and the fact that Doss continues to miss practice, it appears that Greg Blue is going to have all the opportunity in the world to win a roster spot against Dallas on Thursday. He's already got an advantage because he's younger and he's cheaper. He also, as you may recall, made "JACKED UP" last year for a hit against Buffalo. Definitely doesn't hurt.
Thursday, April 26, 2007
Get to Know 'Em: Lamar Woodley
Rather than add my voice to the legion of bloggers speculating on the Vikings' first round pick, I'm going to take the draft analysis a step further and preview players the Vikings might take with the 41st overall pick. And in case you're wondering, I'm getting the ideas for players from NFL Draft Countdown, Draft Tek and FF Tool Box. So for all I know, these guys will all be gone in the first round, or will still be available when the Vikings draft in the third round. If it's the latter, let's all pretend this was a third round preview, ok? Thanks.
April 3: Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Ohio St.
April 4: Sidney Rice, WR, South Carolina
April 5: Charles Johnson, DE, Georgia
April 8: Steve Smith, WR, USC
April 10: Brandon Meriweather, S, Miami
April 18: Jason Hill, WR, Washington St.
April 19: Tim Crowder, DE, Texas
April 20: Justin Blalock: OG, Texas
April 23: Robert Meachem: WR, Tennessee
April 24: Craig "Buster" Davis: WR, LSU
April 25: Dwayne Jarrett: WR, USC
April 26: LaMar Woodley: DE, Michigan
Ask and ye shall receive--my first round preview will be up later this afternoon. In it's place this morning, I'm taking a look at LaMar Woodley, the 6'1, 266lb senior defensive end from the University of Michigan.
Woodley was a force to be feared for Michigan, leading a tenacious defense in sacks his last two years there. He has a relentless motor (by the way, who choose "motor" as the cliche to use in this situation? Why wasn't any else consulted?) and has a nose for getting to the QB. And once he gets there, the QB remembers him, since Woodley can just destroy people. He also uses that strength, along with great technique, to make up for his lack of bulk.
That lack of size is probably his biggest drawback. He's small for an end, but doesn't have a linebackers' instincts, despite spending time at the position for the Wolverines. That size disadvantage rears it's head against double teams and bigger tackles, which he'll be working against in the NFL. And scouts question whether he has the speed and burst necessary for smaller defensive ends to excel in the NFL. He turned in a 4.79 forty at the combine, but followed that up with a 4.62 on campus. It seems that he would be an ideal blitzing linebacker in the 3-4, since he is basically your prototypical "tweener".
Woodley will be availble to the Vikings at #41. He would also be available late in the round, whether they choose to trade up or down to secure the pick. I think the Vikings can get better value with their second rounder than Woodley, whether it's by drafting a different defensive end or by choosing a wide receiver. One of the keys to the draft is getting players that will fit your system. Woodley's lack of size and good but not great speed would be problematic in the Viking's scheme.
April 3: Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Ohio St.
April 4: Sidney Rice, WR, South Carolina
April 5: Charles Johnson, DE, Georgia
April 8: Steve Smith, WR, USC
April 10: Brandon Meriweather, S, Miami
April 18: Jason Hill, WR, Washington St.
April 19: Tim Crowder, DE, Texas
April 20: Justin Blalock: OG, Texas
April 23: Robert Meachem: WR, Tennessee
April 24: Craig "Buster" Davis: WR, LSU
April 25: Dwayne Jarrett: WR, USC
April 26: LaMar Woodley: DE, Michigan
Ask and ye shall receive--my first round preview will be up later this afternoon. In it's place this morning, I'm taking a look at LaMar Woodley, the 6'1, 266lb senior defensive end from the University of Michigan.
Woodley was a force to be feared for Michigan, leading a tenacious defense in sacks his last two years there. He has a relentless motor (by the way, who choose "motor" as the cliche to use in this situation? Why wasn't any else consulted?) and has a nose for getting to the QB. And once he gets there, the QB remembers him, since Woodley can just destroy people. He also uses that strength, along with great technique, to make up for his lack of bulk.
That lack of size is probably his biggest drawback. He's small for an end, but doesn't have a linebackers' instincts, despite spending time at the position for the Wolverines. That size disadvantage rears it's head against double teams and bigger tackles, which he'll be working against in the NFL. And scouts question whether he has the speed and burst necessary for smaller defensive ends to excel in the NFL. He turned in a 4.79 forty at the combine, but followed that up with a 4.62 on campus. It seems that he would be an ideal blitzing linebacker in the 3-4, since he is basically your prototypical "tweener".
Woodley will be availble to the Vikings at #41. He would also be available late in the round, whether they choose to trade up or down to secure the pick. I think the Vikings can get better value with their second rounder than Woodley, whether it's by drafting a different defensive end or by choosing a wide receiver. One of the keys to the draft is getting players that will fit your system. Woodley's lack of size and good but not great speed would be problematic in the Viking's scheme.
Thursday, April 19, 2007
Get to Know 'Em: Tim Crowder
Rather than add my voice to the legion of bloggers speculating on the Vikings' first round pick, I'm going to take the draft analysis a step further and preview players the Vikings might take with the 41st overall pick. And in case you're wondering, I'm getting the ideas for players from NFL Draft Countdown, Draft Tek and FF Tool Box. So for all I know, these guys will all be gone in the first round, or will still be available when the Vikings draft in the third round. If it's the latter, let's all pretend this was a third round preview, ok? Thanks.
April 4: Sidney Rice, WR, South Carolina
April 5: Charles Johnson, DE, Georgia
April 8: Steve Smith, WR, USC
April 10: Brandon Meriweather, S, Miami
April 18: Jason Hill, WR, Washington St.
April 19: Tim Crowder, DE, Texas
As I wrote when I previewed Charles Johnson two weeks ago, if the Vikings decide to draft an offensive player in the first round, they'll most likely try and pick up someone to help their pass rush in the second round. Tim Crowder, a decorated 6'4, 272lb senior defensive end from Texas may just end up in Purple because of that strategy. And don't be surprised if he makes an impact in his first year.
Crowder has a lot going for him--intangibles (he was the Longhorn's captain his senior year), experience (he played in every game while he was in Austin) and all the physical tools you look for in a defensive end. He has speed (4.69 forty) and demonstrated that he had enough speed to get around tackles while racking up 10.5 sacks his senior year. And when he gets to the QB, well, they better protect the ball, as he forced four fumbles his senior year. He's not just a pass rush specialist, either as his play against the run as been above average, partly due to his ability to get the most out of his size and partly due to his ability to disengage from blockers.
His technique is not perfect, however. He doesn't always stay low, allowing blockers to stand him up and get their hands into him. Against Baylor, he could get out of it. Against Chad Clifton, he won't have a chance. And while he has enough speed for the position, tackles won't be staying up all night worrying about it. He's fast, but he's not Javon Kearse.
If the Vikings choose to wait until the second round to address their pass rush issues, Tim Crowder would be a solid choice. He probably won't lead the league in sacks, but he will be able to pressure the quarterback, especially since he'll never be the focus of a blocking scheme (if the Vikings can acquire a defensive end that draws the focus away from the Williams "brothers", well, then they won't have to worry about their defensive line anymore). If he ends up wearing Purple, Crowder will be a solid addition to Erasmus James and Ray Edwards
Thursday, April 05, 2007
Get to Know 'Em: Charles Johnson
Rather than add my voice to the legion of bloggers speculating on the Vikings' first round pick, I'm going to take the draft analysis a step further and preview players the Vikings might take with the 41st overall pick. And in case you're wondering, I'm getting the ideas for players from NFL Draft Countdown, Draft Tek and FF Tool Box. So for all I know, these guys will all be gone in the first round, or will still be available when the Vikings draft in the third round. If it's the latter, let's all pretend this was a third round preview, ok? Thanks.
April 3: Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Ohio St.
Yesterday: Sidney Rice, WR, South Carolina
Today: Charles Johnson, DE, Georgia
What? You thought that all the candidates for the Vikings second round pick were offensive players? You realize that's not their only weak spot, right? What if they decide to draft Adrian Peterson or Brady Quinn? Think it might be worth it to draft a defensive end then? No? Well, me neither, but that doesn't mean they won't do it, just to spite us. And, so we'll all be prepared for that eventuality, I give you Charles Johnson, a 6'2, 270lb junior defensive end out of the University of Georgia. [Editor's note: Yahoo! didn't feel it necessary to keep track of his stats, so those listed are not accurate. He actually had 19 TFLs and 9.5 sacks last year. Hopefully, Johnson uses Yahoo!'s snub as motivation if he's in Purple next year.]
Johnson projects to be a workmanlike end, able to play the run, collect a few sacks and generally get the job done. His upside is "good", not "great". To put it another way, he's never going to be the focus of the other team's blocking schemes, rather, he's going to be the guy that forces the other team to keep their schemes honest.
Johnson has the strength, build and long arms you look for in a defensive end, and has also demonstrated the ability to be an effective run stopper, but he has average speed (4.87) and there are questions about his burst, specifically his ability to get around left tackles. That shouldn't be too big of an issue for the Vikings, since that's supposed to be Erasmus James' job. And if the Vikings are passing up on a defensive end in the first round, they better be sure James' is going to be ready to be their top defensive end.
James' health might be key to Johnson's success for another reason: he was never the focus of offensive blocking schemes in college, as most teams focused instead on stopping his teammate Quentin Moses. Despite this, he is generally regarded as a better NFL prospect than Moses, who is projected as a third or forth rounder. If the Vikings decide to go with an offensive player in the first round, look for them to target someone like Johnson to help with their anemic pass rush. While Charles Johnson may not ever be a Pro Bowler, he has the ability to be a quality defensive end for a long time.
April 3: Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Ohio St.
Yesterday: Sidney Rice, WR, South Carolina
Today: Charles Johnson, DE, Georgia
What? You thought that all the candidates for the Vikings second round pick were offensive players? You realize that's not their only weak spot, right? What if they decide to draft Adrian Peterson or Brady Quinn? Think it might be worth it to draft a defensive end then? No? Well, me neither, but that doesn't mean they won't do it, just to spite us. And, so we'll all be prepared for that eventuality, I give you Charles Johnson, a 6'2, 270lb junior defensive end out of the University of Georgia. [Editor's note: Yahoo! didn't feel it necessary to keep track of his stats, so those listed are not accurate. He actually had 19 TFLs and 9.5 sacks last year. Hopefully, Johnson uses Yahoo!'s snub as motivation if he's in Purple next year.]
Johnson projects to be a workmanlike end, able to play the run, collect a few sacks and generally get the job done. His upside is "good", not "great". To put it another way, he's never going to be the focus of the other team's blocking schemes, rather, he's going to be the guy that forces the other team to keep their schemes honest.
Johnson has the strength, build and long arms you look for in a defensive end, and has also demonstrated the ability to be an effective run stopper, but he has average speed (4.87) and there are questions about his burst, specifically his ability to get around left tackles. That shouldn't be too big of an issue for the Vikings, since that's supposed to be Erasmus James' job. And if the Vikings are passing up on a defensive end in the first round, they better be sure James' is going to be ready to be their top defensive end.
James' health might be key to Johnson's success for another reason: he was never the focus of offensive blocking schemes in college, as most teams focused instead on stopping his teammate Quentin Moses. Despite this, he is generally regarded as a better NFL prospect than Moses, who is projected as a third or forth rounder. If the Vikings decide to go with an offensive player in the first round, look for them to target someone like Johnson to help with their anemic pass rush. While Charles Johnson may not ever be a Pro Bowler, he has the ability to be a quality defensive end for a long time.
Wednesday, February 21, 2007
Vikings Give Recievers Reason to Fear
By resigning Tank Williams, the Vikings insured that they would have both depth and a player with the ability to level wide receivers starting at strong safety. Assuming that Dwight Smith is cut due to the depth at the position, his off field shenanigans and his lack of a strong backer in the coaching staff, the Vikings have set up a training camp battle between Greg Blue and Tank Williams. And both of them can absolutely destroy people, something Smith wasn't known for.
Blue demonstrated his ability at the position during his rookie year while filling in for Smith against the Redskins and Packers, and more importantly, showed that he has the ability to make a wide receiver remember him, a trait he also showed in college.
Even if Blue can't beat out Williams for the starting role, the Vikings will still have an enforcer back there. I don't have video evidence of this, but the man's name is Tank after all. You don't pickup a nickname like that by intercepting passes.
[On a draft related note, the Star Tribune has a nice piece today about why the Vikings should think twice about drafting a wide receiver with their first round pick that you should make sure you read]
Blue demonstrated his ability at the position during his rookie year while filling in for Smith against the Redskins and Packers, and more importantly, showed that he has the ability to make a wide receiver remember him, a trait he also showed in college.
Even if Blue can't beat out Williams for the starting role, the Vikings will still have an enforcer back there. I don't have video evidence of this, but the man's name is Tank after all. You don't pickup a nickname like that by intercepting passes.
[On a draft related note, the Star Tribune has a nice piece today about why the Vikings should think twice about drafting a wide receiver with their first round pick that you should make sure you read]
Friday, February 09, 2007
"You Wait For Good Things"
The above quote from Brad Childress both explains the eighteen day wait for Tomlin's replacement and suggests that Leslie Frazier is going to be able to keep improving the Vikings' defense despite his "rocky stint" as Cincinnati's Defensive Coordinator. And I think he's right about that.
Frazier explains:
Obviously (and thankfully) Childress isn't going to get involved on the defensive side of the ball. He didn't with Tomlin, and he won't with Frazier. It helps that Frazier is a disciple of the Tampa 2 (though really, who isn't these days?), even though his version of the scheme incorporates more blitzes than Tomlin's did.
That should be a good thing. If the Vikings retain Harris, linebacker will be amongst the deepest positions they have, with three quality players (possibly four if Greenway plays up to his potential) whose strength lies in blitzing and playing the run. Frazier's scheme should play to their strengths, allowing the Vikings to get pressure without having to rely so heavily on their defensive line.
What it will also likely do is shift the Vikings' focus in free agency from defensive end (of which there are few quality free agents) to cornerback. While Antoine Winfield is an elite corner, that stems as much from his tackling and ability against the run as it does his coverage ability. Fred Smoot is likely as good as gone. Cedric Griffin and Dovonte Edwards are both decent corners, but neither is likely to be in the Pro Bowl next year. Edwards didn't play last year, and while Griffin started as rookie, it would be best if he could remain as the Nickleback for another year. Luckily for the Vikings, it's a good year for cornerbacks in free agency. I can't say I would mind seeing the Bills starting corners from 2001 to 2003 reunited. Or seeing if Asante Samuel can set a record.
[Update: There's a breakdown of the Wide Recievers in the draft over at Rumors and Rants if you're interested. Just be careful--I don't want anyone getting hurt in the mad scramble to get over there. If you're smart, you'll pay particular attention to the recievers not named Johnson, Jarrett or Ginn, Jr. because those are the ones most likely to end up in Purple next year]
Frazier explains:
"If [defense] is your background," Frazier said, "it's a hard thing to let it go and trust. My personality, some people would say I'm a soft-spoken guy. But I have some strong convictions about certain things. Certain things, I'm not
necessarily going to compromise on."
Obviously (and thankfully) Childress isn't going to get involved on the defensive side of the ball. He didn't with Tomlin, and he won't with Frazier. It helps that Frazier is a disciple of the Tampa 2 (though really, who isn't these days?), even though his version of the scheme incorporates more blitzes than Tomlin's did.
That should be a good thing. If the Vikings retain Harris, linebacker will be amongst the deepest positions they have, with three quality players (possibly four if Greenway plays up to his potential) whose strength lies in blitzing and playing the run. Frazier's scheme should play to their strengths, allowing the Vikings to get pressure without having to rely so heavily on their defensive line.
What it will also likely do is shift the Vikings' focus in free agency from defensive end (of which there are few quality free agents) to cornerback. While Antoine Winfield is an elite corner, that stems as much from his tackling and ability against the run as it does his coverage ability. Fred Smoot is likely as good as gone. Cedric Griffin and Dovonte Edwards are both decent corners, but neither is likely to be in the Pro Bowl next year. Edwards didn't play last year, and while Griffin started as rookie, it would be best if he could remain as the Nickleback for another year. Luckily for the Vikings, it's a good year for cornerbacks in free agency. I can't say I would mind seeing the Bills starting corners from 2001 to 2003 reunited. Or seeing if Asante Samuel can set a record.
[Update: There's a breakdown of the Wide Recievers in the draft over at Rumors and Rants if you're interested. Just be careful--I don't want anyone getting hurt in the mad scramble to get over there. If you're smart, you'll pay particular attention to the recievers not named Johnson, Jarrett or Ginn, Jr. because those are the ones most likely to end up in Purple next year]
Monday, January 22, 2007
A Coordinator Moves On
Make no mistake about it--losing Mike Tomlin hurts. Tomlin took an average defense and turned it into a unit that almost carried the Vikings and their stagnant offense to the playoffs. And now that he had a year of experience as a coordinator, the Vikings defense was poised to be special next year (with the right additions).
Instead, the effectiveness of the unit the Vikings were counting on to carry the load next season is suddenly in doubt. Rather than having a talented coordinator with connections to star free agents (see Rice, Simeon), the Vikings have to reconsider the very philosophies their defense is based on. Should they go out and get a defensive coordinator that utilizes the 3-4 to capitalize on their linebacker depth, Pat Williams All Pro play at nose tackle and slide Kevin Williams to defensive end? Do they stick with the Tampa 2, let Napoleon Harris go and concentrate on finding a defensive end that get to the quarterback? Or perhaps they should move towards a scheme based on blitzing and man to man coverage, making a shutdown corner to pair with Antoine Winfield the priority.
It's because of that uncertainty that Tomlin's departure hurts the most. It forces the Vikings' to focus on what type of defense they're going to play rather than what players they need to improve it. And really, there wasn't anything the Vikings could do about it. This isn't like when Scott Linehan left to become the Dolphins' Offensive Coordinator because Red was too cheap to pay him a coordinator's salary. Tomlin was going to become a head coach sooner than later and it's just the Vikings luck that Bill Cower's retirement opened up a great job with an ownership group willing to hire a young, inexperienced minority as a head coach. [I know this probably sounds racist but I wouldn't be surprised if the Rooneys had made it a point to hire a minority if possible, since they were the lead ownership group on the minority interview rule, otherwise known as the Rooney Rule.]
Unlike a lot of other Vikings' fans, I don't believe this ends any chance of success for 2007. While it would have been nice to have Tomlin around next year and in position to take over if Brad Childress and the Vikings failed to improve next year, a suitable replacement can be found that can keep the defense playing at a high level. Zygi Wilf has shown a willingness to pay for top notch coordinators and Brad Childress has already hired one good defensive coordinator. I don't know who the candidates to replace Tomlin are yet, but I know the the Vikings should be able to get a top notch replacement thanks to Zygi's open wallet, Childress' ability to identify quality defensive coaches and the massive amount of talent they have coming back. Hopefully, when they identify the next Mike Tomlin this time, he actually sticks around for more than a year.
Instead, the effectiveness of the unit the Vikings were counting on to carry the load next season is suddenly in doubt. Rather than having a talented coordinator with connections to star free agents (see Rice, Simeon), the Vikings have to reconsider the very philosophies their defense is based on. Should they go out and get a defensive coordinator that utilizes the 3-4 to capitalize on their linebacker depth, Pat Williams All Pro play at nose tackle and slide Kevin Williams to defensive end? Do they stick with the Tampa 2, let Napoleon Harris go and concentrate on finding a defensive end that get to the quarterback? Or perhaps they should move towards a scheme based on blitzing and man to man coverage, making a shutdown corner to pair with Antoine Winfield the priority.
It's because of that uncertainty that Tomlin's departure hurts the most. It forces the Vikings' to focus on what type of defense they're going to play rather than what players they need to improve it. And really, there wasn't anything the Vikings could do about it. This isn't like when Scott Linehan left to become the Dolphins' Offensive Coordinator because Red was too cheap to pay him a coordinator's salary. Tomlin was going to become a head coach sooner than later and it's just the Vikings luck that Bill Cower's retirement opened up a great job with an ownership group willing to hire a young, inexperienced minority as a head coach. [I know this probably sounds racist but I wouldn't be surprised if the Rooneys had made it a point to hire a minority if possible, since they were the lead ownership group on the minority interview rule, otherwise known as the Rooney Rule.]
Unlike a lot of other Vikings' fans, I don't believe this ends any chance of success for 2007. While it would have been nice to have Tomlin around next year and in position to take over if Brad Childress and the Vikings failed to improve next year, a suitable replacement can be found that can keep the defense playing at a high level. Zygi Wilf has shown a willingness to pay for top notch coordinators and Brad Childress has already hired one good defensive coordinator. I don't know who the candidates to replace Tomlin are yet, but I know the the Vikings should be able to get a top notch replacement thanks to Zygi's open wallet, Childress' ability to identify quality defensive coaches and the massive amount of talent they have coming back. Hopefully, when they identify the next Mike Tomlin this time, he actually sticks around for more than a year.
Thursday, January 04, 2007
2007 Vikings=2000 Ravens?
The Vikings' defense was unquestionably their best unit in 2006. If they'd exerted a little bit of effort in their last game, they would have broken the 2000 Ravens' record for fewest rushing yards allowed in the modern era. Their pass defense, however, left something to be desired, finishing tied for last in yards allowed. But here's the thing--that statistic is misleading. The Vikings pass defense (or at least their secondary) was a lot better than it appeared.
In Cold, Hard Football Facts.com's (from here on out, they're going to be CHFF) defensive passer rating metric, the Vikings's pass defense makes a huge jump in the rankings, going from last to fifth, as quarterbacks only turned in a 73.1 passer rating against them. Basically, the Vikings turned every quarterback they faced into Rex Grossman (73.9 passer rating). That means the yards that the Vikings defense gave up through the air were not a product of shoddy pass defense, so much as a product of the massive amount of pass plays their opponents ran against them.
There's a reason, however, that I included the parenthetical remark about the Vikings' secondary in the first paragraph. While the Vikings' defensive passer rating was remarkable, their defensive line play on pass plays was not. The low number of sacks is one indicator, as is the Vikings' low standing in the negative pass play percentage aspect (27th) of CHFF's Defensive Hog metric. And they likely would have placed higher than 5th in the time of possession aspect of that metric if they'd had an improved pass rush.
So what does all this have to do with this entry? Quite simply, the Vikings, barring any injuries, could have an even better defense next year if they improve their pass rush. The run defense's performance this year speaks for itself, and as I just showed, the secondary is a lot better than it looked. The only piece missing this year was a pass rush. If the Purple had been able to get to the quarterback this year, their defense would have been the best in the league.
And they should be able to bring in a quality defensive end, whether it's Simeon Rice, Dwight Freeny or Gaines Adams. And Erasmus James and Davonte Edwards should also be back from injury. With those additions, the only question marks will be at middle linebacker (if Napoleon Harris is allowed to leave to make way for Chad Greenway) and at safety (if Greg Blue replaces Darren Sharper). The reality is that the defense should be more talented next year than it is this year. Which is why they should be able to chase the 2000 Ravens for not just the title of best rush defense of the Parity Era, but for the title of best defense of the Parity Era.
[Today is your final opportunity to get in on the Ragnarok's Playoff PickOff--all you have to do is get your picks in for this weekend's games to me by this evening to enter, and you could win a post at the Ragnarok to do with as you wish!]
In Cold, Hard Football Facts.com's (from here on out, they're going to be CHFF) defensive passer rating metric, the Vikings's pass defense makes a huge jump in the rankings, going from last to fifth, as quarterbacks only turned in a 73.1 passer rating against them. Basically, the Vikings turned every quarterback they faced into Rex Grossman (73.9 passer rating). That means the yards that the Vikings defense gave up through the air were not a product of shoddy pass defense, so much as a product of the massive amount of pass plays their opponents ran against them.
There's a reason, however, that I included the parenthetical remark about the Vikings' secondary in the first paragraph. While the Vikings' defensive passer rating was remarkable, their defensive line play on pass plays was not. The low number of sacks is one indicator, as is the Vikings' low standing in the negative pass play percentage aspect (27th) of CHFF's Defensive Hog metric. And they likely would have placed higher than 5th in the time of possession aspect of that metric if they'd had an improved pass rush.
So what does all this have to do with this entry? Quite simply, the Vikings, barring any injuries, could have an even better defense next year if they improve their pass rush. The run defense's performance this year speaks for itself, and as I just showed, the secondary is a lot better than it looked. The only piece missing this year was a pass rush. If the Purple had been able to get to the quarterback this year, their defense would have been the best in the league.
And they should be able to bring in a quality defensive end, whether it's Simeon Rice, Dwight Freeny or Gaines Adams. And Erasmus James and Davonte Edwards should also be back from injury. With those additions, the only question marks will be at middle linebacker (if Napoleon Harris is allowed to leave to make way for Chad Greenway) and at safety (if Greg Blue replaces Darren Sharper). The reality is that the defense should be more talented next year than it is this year. Which is why they should be able to chase the 2000 Ravens for not just the title of best rush defense of the Parity Era, but for the title of best defense of the Parity Era.
[Today is your final opportunity to get in on the Ragnarok's Playoff PickOff--all you have to do is get your picks in for this weekend's games to me by this evening to enter, and you could win a post at the Ragnarok to do with as you wish!]
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