Killing Time: No Cutler, No Nobody

The Broncos are insisting that Jay Cutler is not available for trade. Not really all that surprising (Let's be honest--there isn't a person in a front office position in any sport willing to take the risk of trading a 25 year old Pro Bowler under contract for three more years), but still disappointing. I guess it was a nice dream while it lasted.

And now that the dream has withered in the sun, the Vikings no longer have a chance to make a significant upgrade to their team via free agency. While they were busy pursuing Housh and Cutler (and resigning Jim Kleinsasser), almost every player they could have pursued signed somewhere else without even visiting Winter Park. And, if they're not careful, they might lose Matt Birk as well (though whether its a good idea to re-sign the 32 year old center is a whole other issue).

I liked that the Vikings' made a play for Housh and that they tried to trade for Cutler. And the Rosenfels trade does upgrade the quarterback position, even if it only brings it up to "slightly-below average". But the Vikings need to upgrade the right side of their offensive line, they need more depth at cornerback and defensive tackle and they need someone to return punts and possibly kicks (if they don't trust Darius Reynaud to stay healthy). And they haven't even hosted a single player that might address those needs.

It was obvious that the Vikings wouldn't be able to address all of their needs via free agency. But it was also obvious that they wouldn't be able to do so via the draft also (they just have too many needs). And at this point, it looks like the draft is the only option they have left, which means that, one year after a hugely successful foray into free agency, the Vikings failed to make any real improvements during free agency because they didn't try hard enough.

Housh signs with Seahawks, Nate Washington signs with Titans

Well this sucks. Two of the best wide receivers available signed with teams that aren't the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings' first choice was obviously T.J. Houshmandzadeh , but he's apparently signing with the Seahawks (and just when I memorized how to spell his name). And while the Vikings were focused on Housh, a receiver that may have been the Vikings' back up plan, Nate Washington, signed with Tennessee.

After their success last year with free agents, I guess the Vikings inability to sign a single free agent makes sense in some kind of regression to the mean kind of way. It doesn't mean it sucks any less, however. With most of the quality free agents gone, the Vikings have yet to upgrade at any position, except for quarterback (and that was mainly an upgrade because of how bad the Vikings quarterbacks were last year). They still need to improve their offensive line, specifically right tackle, bring in a real quarterback (by prying Kurt Warner or Jay Cutler away from their current teams), find someone to return punts and kicks and improve their cornerback depth. And they could still use more talent at wide receiver as well (hence the whole "trying to sign T.J. Houshmandzadeh" thing). That's a lot of positions to improve during the course of one draft, but it's looking more and more like that will be the only way for the Purple to do so (Come on miracle trade for Jay Cutler... Come on miracle trade for Jay Cutler...)

Killing Time: Rumor Craziness & Housh

So far, the Vikings have done, well, nothing, aside from formalize the trade for Sage Rosenfels. I haven't seen or heard anything about which players are visiting Winter Park, or, really, anything new about any of their free agent targets. Negotiations continue with Matt Birk and Jim Kleinsasser, and the Purple have made offers to restricted free agents Fred Evans (a solid back up for the Williams Wall) and Naufahu Tahi (a horrible blocker who gained 37 receiving yards on 21 targets with a -77.4%DVOA and accumulated -77 DYAR). So really, no big changes except for a fun little rumor started by T.J. Houshmandzadeh who appears to enjoy flirting with every franchise's fanbase. As he said yesterday,

“I’m looking at teams I think have good coaches and good offensive lines and good running games. I have no idea if those teams are interested in me. If I can play with Adrian Peterson, can you imagine what I would do getting one-on-one coverage with Adrian Peterson? I am going to win 98.6 percent of the time with one-on-one coverage with him in the backfield.”

He's also contacted a radio station in Philly and is generally having a good time with being wanted (though I have no idea how he was able to know how often he could beat one-on-one coverage within a tenth of a percent). Would Housh (you type his name out more than once) be a good fit for the Vikings? The answer--it depends on the price.

If the Vikings can sign Housh that gives them a reasonable protection against his age 34, 35 and 36 seasons (the upcoming season is his age 32 season), he should definitely be brought in (I'm fine with them paying him for 4 or 5 years for 2 great and one good season, but not with them paying him for 6 or 7 seasons). He's averaged 1012 receiving yards a year over the last five years, and 89 catches. Last year, despite spending 13 games catching passes from Ryan Fitzpatrick, he still caught 92 passes for 904 yards. While he's not a deep threat (he has only 6 catches for over forty yards and 67 catches over 20 yards the last five years), he is an amazing possession receiver--he's not Randy Moss, he's Chris Carter. His worst catch percentage over the last five years is 66% and he's a first down machine, averaging 56 first down catches a year over the past five years and finishing 16th, 1st, 7th and 16th in first down catches in the last four years. He'd be the perfect fit for a West Coast offense, and the perfect complement for Bernard Berrian.

The only question mark is whether he can be signed without a Haynseworthian contract that guarantees it will ruin the Vikings' cap situation as Housh ages. If he can't, he's probably not worth it. If he can be signed for a reasonable (within the context of #1 receiver contracts), then the Vikings should do everything they can to sign him. At the very least, the Purple need to find out the answer.

Killing Time: Free Agency Eve

As you've probably heard a hundred times already, teams are able to sign free agents starting at 11pm tonight. And we all hope (and think) that the Vikings will be active in the free agency market. After some of their top targets re-signed with their current teams, its not clear who they're likely to target in the market. They have needs at offensive line, cornerback, wide receiver and kick and punt returner. While there doesn't seem to be many corners worth signing (and they re-signed Charles Gordon to play nickel back and possibly return punts), there are still some intriguing linemen and wide receivers available.

One of the best lineman is Jason Brown, who started at center for the Ravens. He'll only be 26 during this upcoming season, and he was a dominant run blocker in the middle. While the Ravens' running backs were constantly injured, they still had a very good running game, ranking 9th in DVOA. And they were the most successful when they ran up the middle, averaging 4.40 yards per carry, the 10th best in the NFL (and better than the Vikings, who were 19th with 4.15 yards). He can also play guard, which allows the Vikings to play John Sullivan at center if he earns it, upgrading two positions at once.

Another possibility for the Purple is Laveranues Coles. The Jets cut him loose yesterday in order to get under the cap, and acquiring him would add another quality target for Tarvaris (or Sage). Last year, he caught 70 passes for 836 yards and 8 touchdowns. He caught 61% of the passes thrown his way, and was 24th and 36th in DYAR and DVOA (which would have put him well ahead of Bobby Wade for second in both categories on the Vikings). He's not much of a deep threat (he only caught 2 passes over 40 yards), but he'd be a quality possession receiver and would complement Bernard Berrian well. He might end up back with the Jets, however, so I wouldn't get your hopes up about seeing him in Purple.

If you're looking for more players worth targeting, Yahoo has a list of the top 100 free agents (h/t Football Outsiders). Don't be suprised to see the Vikings try and bring in Khalif Barnes, Mark Tauscher or Jon Stinchcom to play right tackle. Niners Nation has a good breakdown of those three, and the other available free agent tackles if you want to know more. And don't forget the twelve Vikings who are unrestricted free agents this year.

Quarterbacks:

• Jason Winter compares Tarvaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels at Defensive Indifference.

• Kevin Seifert puts Tarvaris in context. It's not pretty.

Combine:

• Sports Illustrated and the National Football Post on the impact of the Combine on draft prospects.

• Football Outsiders on the one part of the Combine that may actually be predictive. (And gives us a reason to be happy the Vikings' don't need a running back)

The Williams Wall:

• Their court date is set for June 15th. The schedule hasn't been released yet, but if the Vikings have to play four games without the Williams Wall, they're going to be starting out the season yet another hole.
  

Killing Time: Hicks, Combine and Tackle Depth

Maurice Hicks:
The Vikings waived Maurice Hicks yesterday, ending what was a failed free agent pick up. Hicks was brought in to improve the Vikings special teams, specifically their return games, even though he hadn't shown the ability to be anything other than a mediocre returner (as I pointed out when he signed). His signing was an example of valuing experience over talent, and it came back to hurt the Vikings, as he had a key fumble on a kickoff return against Tampa Bay, had 9 returns of less than 20 yards and never once returned a kickoff more than 40 yards. For a team built on defense and the running game (i.e., field position), having a good kick returner is important, which is why Hicks' signing was so damaging to the Vikings last year.

The Combine:
The Combine started yesterday, and while it's nowhere important, it can be a useful tool in evaluating draft prospects for the teams that approach it properly. Based on this interview with Rick Speilman, I think the Vikings do it right (h/t ESPN NFC North Blog). They aren't going to give too much weight to the workouts, but they are going to use it as a way to get a handle on the people these draft prospects are. The Vikings have done a good job in the draft since the infamous 2005 draft, and their approach to the Combine has certainly contributed to that.

Tackle Depth:
One of the things that I (along with most Viking's fans) have forgotten about is the impending resolution of the Williams Wall's legal battle over their suspension. Depending on the outcome, the Vikings might be short both of their starting tackles for the first four games of the season. And, even if they aren't suspended, the Williams' backups, Fred Evans and Ellis Wyms, are both free agents this year (although Evans is only a restricted free agent). The Vikings took LaTroy Guion in the fifth round last year to help at tackle, but additional depth would be nice, especially if Guion isn't ready to contribute after spending last year adjusting to the NFL. The National Football Post has a breakdown of the available free agent defensive tackles, and someone like Ryan Boschetti or Grady Jackson would be a welcome addition to the defensive line.

Killing Time: Quarterbacks, Free Agent WRs and Money Issues

I'm working on a bigger post for Jeff Garcia (who seems to be Vikings' fans other favorite choice to start at quarterback next year) similar to the one I wrote on Matt Cassel. For whatever reason, I'm not really all that excited about Garcia, despite the fact that he seems to still have it after playing well last year. More on that soon.

In other news:

• Brett Favre is trying to trick the Jets into releasing him by retiring and then coming back and wrecking their cap number and plans for the season. Remember folks, no one loves the game more than Favre, unless, of course, he's asked to put in work in the offseason (or run an offense the way his coach wants him too).

• Jason Winter (spelled his name right this time!) makes a case for acquiring Byron Leftwich to be the Vikings' starting quarterback next year. I don't think he's the answer though. He's too immobile (while his sack rate is only 5.4% for his career, it's been 7.7% and 9.4% the past two years in limited action), which really doesn't work well with a line that's bad at pass blocking (the Vikings were 28th in Adjusted Sack Rate) and a slow throwing motion (he had 6 fumbles in three games with Atlanta). He's also inaccurate (he only has one year where he completed 60% of his passes, and his career mark is only 58.6%), which Jason mentions in the comments.

• Michael Lombardi breaks down the wide receiver free agent class. If he's right about the quality of this class (or lack there of), the Vikings better hope that Sidney Rice makes the leap he was supposed to make last year. And they're also going to have to look elsewhere to find a decent punt returner.

• The Vikings are offering a lawaway plan for tickets. Pretty crazy, but if it keeps me from having to read stories about possible black outs every week, that's great.

• Kevin Seifert breaks down the cap situation for each of the four NFC North teams. It looks like there's going to be a lot of new additions in the division this year, because every team has a ton of cap room. Which is just another reason why the Vikings have to remain aggressive this offseason and continue to improve their roster.
  

Wrapping Up the Week

The Vikings were busy the last week (as was I), but in this period between the first flurry of free agent signings and the Draft, nothing too exciting happens. So while the Purple was signing Ellis Wyms, Derrick Pope and Dallas Sartz, and resigning Robert Ferguson, I was staying late at work to meet some critical deadlines.

As for the signings, they all helped address areas that the Vikings needed to address. Wyms adds depth at defensive end as well as a veteran presence at the position. He's not a sack machine, having only gotten to the QB 16.5 times in his seven year career, but he's more than good enough to be in the end of the rotation, and he won't kill you if you have to play him due to injuries.

The signing of Pope and Sartz adds depth at linebacker and special teams, as Pope will be able to compete with Heath Farwell for the primary backup role, and he'll fit in nicely on the coverage teams, an area that can always be improved when you play in a division that includes Koren Robinson and Devin Hester. Sartz will be competing with the healed Rufus Alexander for the last LB spot and a spot on special teams, positions that you want to have as mich competition for as possible.

As for Ferguson, he showed last year that he can have value as a fourth or fifth reciever, catching 32 passes for 392 yards and a touchdown. He's also one of the league's best downfield blockers, a skill that the Vikings just might be ab le to find a use for.

In slightly worse news, Bryant McKinnie pleaded "Not Guilty" to a list of charges in Miami, reminding me that I should add all of the linemen that might be drafted in late first round to my to my list of prospects to preview.

If the Vikings do end up using their first round pick on an offensive lineman, they can still upgrade at defensive end, as, word out of Carolina is that that Julius Peppers, quite possibly the most talented defensive end in the NFL, is available for the right price. He won't be cheap though, as the Panthers would likely ask for a 1st and 3rd round pick for him. Is he worth it? Well, that depends a lot on what your opinion of the Vikings is. If you believe that they have a legitimate chance of going to the Super Bowl in the next two years, then Peppers is more than worth it, as he would immediately give the Purple a defensive line that only the Giants could challenge. If, however, you look at the uncertainty at important offensive positions like Left Tackle and Quarterback and think its more likely that they're upside is "playoff team" at best, then those picks can be used to improve a roster that is still recovering from the horrendous 2004 and 2005 drafts. More than anything though, I'd be wary of Peppers production dropoff last year, where he only notched 2.5 sacks in 14 games (his season was cut short by a knee sprain). That kind of precipitous drop off may just be because of a bad season, or it may signal the end of the his reign as the NFL's best defensive end. And make no mistake about it--whichever team gets Peppers will be giving up the draft picks that the NFL's best defensive end would cost.

Another option for the Vikings is to draft a defensive end in the second, third or fourth round, similar to what they did last year when they drafted Brian Robison. If you haven't seen it yet, an anonymous commenter left a scouting report on Eastern Michigan's Jason Jones, who'll be a player the Vikings are looking at on the second day:

"Eastern Michigan's Jason Jones should at least be considered in the 4th (maybe 3rd) round. For starters, his build is similar to Derrick Harvey's (slightly taller -- above 6'5, slightly longer arms), although Jones played around 275-280 in college and slimmed down in anticipation of a move to DE in the pros after playing @ DT his senior year.

There are concerns about his production. He got 19 sacks in 4 years as a starter, and had no double-digit pressures/hurries in a season until '07. Without having seen EMU's games it's hard to determine if those numbers should be taken at face value, or if other factors come into play. However, he's always able to make tackles and take guys down in the backfield.

In the Senior Bowl he returned to playing @ DE and manhandled the tackle lined up against him (Kirk Barton, Ohio State) during practice. In the game itself he was able to collapse the pocket and force mistakes. He showed quickness, athleticism, the skill to utilize a variety of pass rush moves, and the ability to use his wingspan to his advantage. At the Combine he got 18 reps in the bench press; either he isn't a workout fiend, or Harvey's 30 reps means he's far stronger than he looks. Inconsistent agility tests -- great 3-cone drill time, average shuttle, poor vertical -- mean little considering what he showed during Senior Bowl Week, leading back to the point you made in your post.

Given his ability to improve (in terms of conditioning/shape as well as skill) I could see him becoming a surprise down the road, like Justin Tuck. He's able to line up in various spots and continue to be a threat regardless of where he is. It's funny how the Tampa Two's success starts with your front four; yet it's Coughlin/Spagnuolo's Giants who embraced that more than anyone by employing versatile DEs they can rely on to produce in an unorthodox manner, e.g. Tuck lined up @ DT, Umenyiora/Kiwanuka @ OLB."

Comments like that are more than appreciated (he also left some more thoughts on Derrick Harvey which you should read). The more information and discussion we have, the better, in my opinion.

Weekend Roundup: BERNARD BERRIAN!!!

In one of the better sports weekends in my recent memory, the Hoyas came away with an amazing come from behind win at #21 Marquette, the Vikings filled some of the holes in their roster, including the signing of a legitimate wide receiver who is an actual deep threat, something the Purple haven't had since they traded Randy Moss away after the 2004 season.

The signing of Berrian is huge. And when I say huge, I mean "create a 'hope' tag for the first time" huge. He was, quite simply, the best receiver available to the Vikings on the free agent market. When I wrote about him earlier, I didn't expect him to make it away from Chicago, because I expected da Bears to either sign him or use the franchise tag on him. They didn't do either, and because of Zygi Wilf's willingness to spend money to make his team better (this is the second time since he took over in 2005 that the Vikings have made a splash in free agency), the Vikings have added the biggest piece missing from their offense (assuming that the Purple are planning on continuing the Tarvaris Revolution).

And while Berrian has never had 1000 yards receiving, or 100 receptions, what he has done is produce despite having mediocre to bad quarterbacks throwing him the ball. No matter what your opinion of Tarvaris is, he's not that much worse than Kyle Orton, Rex Grossman and Brian Griese, especially when you consider that da Bears played in conditions that weren't favorable to passing.

Of course, some seem to think that the Vikings overpaid for Berrian. His contract for six years included $16 million in guaranteed money and was worth $42 million overall, which makes him the fourth highest paid receiver in the NFL. Is he the 4th best receiver in the NFL? Probably not. That's a flawed metric to use in order to determine if the Vikings overpaid, however, because the market for free agents this year is different than last year's, or the year before that, or the year before that. The question one needs to ask to determine if the Vikings overpaid is to determine whether they could have used the money to acquire a better player and if Berrian's value to the Vikings is worth the cap space he takes up. I think he was the best receiver available and that he will be more than worth the money to the Vikings and to Adrian Peterson, who will only have to run into eight and nine man fronts, instead of the nine and ten man fronts he saw last year.

First off, Berrian greatly upgrades the Vikings' weakest position, something that the Purple absolutely had to do this off season. Secondly, the Vikings had the cap room to spend, something they are likely to continue to have, considering the ability they have shown at managing their cap (for example, Chester Taylor, Steve Hutchinson and the rest of the Vikings' big signings in 2005 didn't effect their ability to pursue free agents last year or to sign free agents this year). Finally, when one considers that Donte' Stallworth, a receiver who was an inferior version of Berrian, signed a contract for seven years, with $10 million of it's $35 million total guaranteed, Berrian's contract looks a lot better. One of the keys to free agency is to spend your money on the best talent. Where a team can get itself in trouble is when it starts shelling out money to mid range talent. And Berrian was clearly the best talent available at wide receiver. And now he's a Viking.

As I said earlier in the post, it was a good weekend.

[Up next--Who's left the Purple, Who's rushing the quarterback, and Maurice Hicks & Jabar Gaffney]

Thomas Tapeh and Madieu Williams Sign!

Word out of Winter Park is that the Vikings have signed S Madieu Williams and FB Thomas Tapeh and are continuing to meet with WR Bernard Berrian. If they can get Berrian to sign a contract while he's in the state, that would be a huge coup for the Purple, and would mean that they had filled three holes with talented players that will make the Vikings better next year.

As I wrote earlier, Williams will be a huge improvement over Dwight Smith in coverage, something that Smith was horrible at, and something that Williams is very good at. This was a very, very good move for the Vikings. By swapping Smith for Williams, they improved their talent level at safety, brought in a younger player and one who's skills will improve one of the Vikings weaknesses. Also, Williams should help cover for the Vikings young corners, something Smith wasn't very good at.

The Vikings also upgraded at fullback by signing Thomas Tapeh. Tapeh is a younger version of Tony Richardson. He has a good reputation as a blocking back, and is known for his special teams play, something at which they can always get better at, especially in a division that includes Devin Hester and Koren Robinson. And, as everyone likely knows, Tapeh is a former Minnesota Golden Gopher, and a native of St. Paul, and it's always a plus to bring a Minnesotan home to play for the Purple.

These two signings were a great start by the Vikings on the first day of free agency. They filled two of the holes in their roster, and still have a very good shot at signing the best receiver available. If DE Justin Smith doesn't sign with San Francisco, and they can talk the Texans or Bills into trading their backup QB, they'll have a very good chance of addressing everyone of their needs before the draft even starts. After all the negativity of the end of the season, its nice to finally have some reasons to be excited about next year.

Solving Our Problems: Bernard Berrian

[Solving Our Problems is an ongoing series here at the Ragnarok where I evaluate the Vikings' options going into the offseason. I started by looking at the quarterback options, examining Derek Anderson, Donovan McNabb and possible backups for Tarvaris Jackson. Now it's time to figure out who the QB is going to throw to, starting with free agent Bernard Berrian.]

As we all know, Brad Childress isn't a big fan of taking a wide receiver in the first round. I have no problems with that, especially after considering how the difference in performance between Sidney Rice and Troy Williamson. That means, however, that if the Vikings want to get an impact wide receiver to pair with Bobby Wade and Rice next year, they're going to have to sign them in free agency. Luckily for the Vikings, there are quite a few talented receivers who are unrestricted free agents this year (and that's not even counting Randy Moss, who is sadly just a pipe dream).

After Moss, the next best receiver on the market seems to be Bernard Berrian, formerly of the Chicago Bears. Berrian was drafted out of Fresno State in 2004 and is entering his fifth year in the NFL. And he’s made an impact for da Bears, despite having to catch passes from the likes of Rex Grossman, Brian Griese and Kyle Orton (a big plus in my book, considering he’d likely be catching passes from Tarvaris Jackson if he signed with the Purple).

And there’s a reason for all of the excitement surrounding Berrian. He’s increased his receptions and yards every year, and, while his touchdowns fell last year (from 6 to 5), that probably had as much to do with da Bears’ offense becoming worse. He’s 6’1 and is a good leaper—with an accurate quarterback (which he might not have in Purple), he’d be perfect for the fade pass, giving the Vikings another big receiver to throw to in the Red Zone. His hands are pretty good as well, as he caught 55% of the passes thrown his way, despite having inaccurate quarterbacks, and aside from his rookie year, he’s never caught fewer than 50% of the passes thrown to him.

He’d also provide the Vikings with an experienced deep threat that could take the pressure off of Sidney Rice. He has 11 catches for over 20 yards in each of the past two years, and has averaged a little under 4 catches over 40 yards per year in his career. He’s also had at least one reception over 50 yards in each of the last three years, and had two catches for 49 yards in his rookie year.

Berrian is fast, tall and experienced. He fell only 52 yards short of 1000 yards receiving last year, despite catching passes from Kyle Orton, Rex Grossman and Brian Griese. He has good hands. So what’s the problem? Well…

The first problem is that he wants to remain with da Bears, and da Bears want to resign him. That doesn’t guarantee anything, however, mainly because of the second problem, which is that Berrian is represented by Drew Rosenhaus. That’s right—the guy who represented Terrell Owens is the agent for the top free agent wide receiver on the market. That’s a good sign, in that it means that Berrian could end up anywhere. It’s also a bad sign, because it means that he’s chosen a guy like Rosenhaus, who’s perfectly willing to make things insanely difficult if it means getting his client what he wants. That probably bodes well for the Purple, as it makes it less likely that da Bears will slap the Franchise Tag on Berrian, an option that they still have, as Rosenhaus (and Berrian) will fight it.

Is Berrian the Vikings best receiver the Purple could add this year? Yes. Are they going to be able to sign him? Probably not. He’s much more likely to stay in Chicago than go anywhere else, especially because da Bears can franchise him. Is he worth dreaming about? Of course—it’s the off season. Might as well think happy thoughts..

Friday's Offseason Links

I'll be continuing my look at possible solutions to the Vikings' problems on Monday with an in depth look at Donovan McNabb, the man many believe to be the Vikings' best option at quarterback, ahead of Derek Anderson, who I examined yesterday. I'll also being taking a look at the status of the Tarvaris Revolution and what that would entail for the Purple. I haven't ruled him out yet, and Gonzo at the Daily Norseman made an interesting comparison that helps to show why. Today, however, I figured I'd point yall toward some of the happenings around the internet.

• The Draft is coming. And the Bowls are almost over, which means that underclassmen have started to declare, a few of which may end up in Purple next year. So far, DeSean Jackson, a WR/KR from Cal, has declared, as have defensive ends Calais Campbell of Miami, Johnny Dingle of West Virginia and Derrick Harvey of Florida. E.J.'s little brother Erin, a linebacker who followed his brother to Maryland, has also declared.
  

• If you're looking for mock drafts, Chris Steuber has one at scout.com, and my personal favorite NFL draft site (because it's free!), nfldraftcountdown.com has one up as well. They have the Vikings taking DeSean Jackson and Derrick Harvey, respectively. The latter, however, hasn't been updated since December 20th, so it has the Vikings picking 19th, rather than 17th.
  

• The Vikings, according to Brad Childress, won't be building solely through the draft, however. Zygi Wilf has given him the greenlight to pursue free agents. He still considers the draft the primary way to build the team, a stance, I think, that is the correct one. Free Agency is too expensive, and there are too few quality free agents, for a team to rely on it to build their team. The primary talent should come through the draft, and free agency should be used to plug holes. Luckily for the Vikings, there are quite a few interesting free agents wide receivers and defensive ends this year, both of which I'll be looking at later on. (Quick Disclaimer on those last two links--they are not updated, which means that Randy Moss is not, I repeat, not, available via free agency).

• If you're something of a history buff, like myself, you'll really enjoy Mr. Cheer Or Die's look at a tremendous catch by the first Vikings' wide receiver to win the NFL's Offensive Rookie of the Year Award.

• Finally, Leslie Frazier is interviewing for head coaching jobs. While I wish him the best, it'd be good if he stayed, and the Vikings defense had some continuity in its leadership. And, while this might sound wrong, I wonder how much his race, and the Rooney rule, has to do with teams interest? I would guess it played a major factor, mainly because the Vikings' defense really didn't improve from last year (in fact, the pass defense got worse). Of course, the whole point of the Rooney rule is to ensure that people like Frazier get a fair shake, so if that's the reason he gets to sit down and sell himself to Bill Parcells, that's fine by me.
  

Don't Sign Keyshawn...

Unless he comes really cheaply. He was awful last year and mediocre the season before. He's old (He turns 35 this summer), he's slow, and he doesn't actually catch that many of the passes thrown to him. Not to mention there's that whole "attitude problem". Keyshawn would actually be a downgrade from Travis Taylor. Keyshawn's statistics for the last two seasons from Football Outsiders:

Year DPAR DPAR Rank PAR PAR Rank DVOA DVOA Rank VOA Passes Yards TD Catch % 2006 6.7 55 9.1 50 -7.60% 60 -4.30% 128 821 4 55% 2005 10.9 37 10.2 36 -0.90% 52 -1.90% 123 839 6 58% 2004 23.6 20 20.1 28 13.5% 35 8.6% 125 976 6 56%

Taylor's DPAR was 8.6, his DVOA was .9% and he caught 65% of the passes thrown his way. The Vikings would be lucky to get that out of Johnson, considering his statistics have declined the past three years and he's not going to get any younger. If Johnson is content to be a cheap veteran presence for a year while imparting his wisdom to Troy Williamson, Sidney Rice and Aundrae Allison, that's one thing. If he expects to be a centerpiece of an offensive attack, get a decent size contract and generally be treated like a star, the Vikings should let him go elsewhere, since he no longer plays like a star.

[Explanations of DPAR can be found here, while the DVOA explanation is here.]

"You Wait For Good Things"

The above quote from Brad Childress both explains the eighteen day wait for Tomlin's replacement and suggests that Leslie Frazier is going to be able to keep improving the Vikings' defense despite his "rocky stint" as Cincinnati's Defensive Coordinator. And I think he's right about that.

Frazier explains:

"If [defense] is your background," Frazier said, "it's a hard thing to let it go and trust. My personality, some people would say I'm a soft-spoken guy. But I have some strong convictions about certain things. Certain things, I'm not
necessarily going to compromise on."

Obviously (and thankfully) Childress isn't going to get involved on the defensive side of the ball. He didn't with Tomlin, and he won't with Frazier. It helps that Frazier is a disciple of the Tampa 2 (though really, who isn't these days?), even though his version of the scheme incorporates more blitzes than Tomlin's did.

That should be a good thing. If the Vikings retain Harris, linebacker will be amongst the deepest positions they have, with three quality players (possibly four if Greenway plays up to his potential) whose strength lies in blitzing and playing the run. Frazier's scheme should play to their strengths, allowing the Vikings to get pressure without having to rely so heavily on their defensive line.

What it will also likely do is shift the Vikings' focus in free agency from defensive end (of which there are few quality free agents) to cornerback. While Antoine Winfield is an elite corner, that stems as much from his tackling and ability against the run as it does his coverage ability. Fred Smoot is likely as good as gone. Cedric Griffin and Dovonte Edwards are both decent corners, but neither is likely to be in the Pro Bowl next year. Edwards didn't play last year, and while Griffin started as rookie, it would be best if he could remain as the Nickleback for another year. Luckily for the Vikings, it's a good year for cornerbacks in free agency. I can't say I would mind seeing the Bills starting corners from 2001 to 2003 reunited. Or seeing if Asante Samuel can set a record.

[Update: There's a breakdown of the Wide Recievers in the draft over at Rumors and Rants if you're interested. Just be careful--I don't want anyone getting hurt in the mad scramble to get over there. If you're smart, you'll pay particular attention to the recievers not named Johnson, Jarrett or Ginn, Jr. because those are the ones most likely to end up in Purple next year]