A Look at the Falcons

As I said earlier, this Falcons team is not like the Cardinals. They’re a solid team, with wins over the Panthers, Bucs, Saints and Bears and one that dramatically improved their talent in almost every aspect of the game (except for one, which will become apparent and which bodes well for the Vikings) over the offseason. This is a team that could quite easily come into the Metrodome and beat the Vikings (though they’re only 2-5 on the road, they’ve won in Lambeau and at San Diego). And, like any Vikings fan, I have no faith in this team winning a big game (something I’ve only seen them do once), especially against an improved Falcons team that’s still in the playoff hunt.

Comparing their 2008 and 2007 rankings in Football Outsiders’ statistics, the Falcons improvement becomes obvious. They went from 24^th overall in offensive DVOA, and 22^nd and 29^th overall in passing and rushing DVOA, respectively, to 5^th overall, with highest overall passing DVOA and the 14^th best rushing DVOA. That’s what happens when you replace Joey Harrington with the best rookie QB since Dan Marino, you bring in Michael Turner to replace Warrick Dunn and upgrade your offensive line. Here’s where the Falcons’ top QB and RB ranked in 2007 and in 2008:

	2007 DYAR	2007 DVOA	2008 DYAR	2008 DVOA
Quarterback	25th	29th	5th	1st
Running Back	49th	49th	14th	19th

Yup. That’s what we’d call an upgrade (especially at running back—Warrick Dunn was awful last year). Of course, if the Falcons hadn’t upgraded their line by drafting Sam Baker to play left tackle and finding starters Harvey Dahl and Tyson Clabo in the scrap heap, Ryan and Turner wouldn’t be as effective. Their three new starters have upgraded the line’s play as much as Ryan and Turner have upgraded the skill positions.

	2007	2008
Adj. Sack Rate	23rd	5th
Adj. Line Yards	32nd	17th

Unlike on offense, however, the Falcons didn’t overhaul their defense. So while their defense has improved, it hasn’t done so anywhere near as much as the offense. In fact, the improvement can be traced to three things—they let DeAngelo Hall go, defensive tackle Jonathan Babineaux has been healthy all year (he only started 9 games last year) and John Abraham is having a career year. Consequently, their pass defense has improved from 26^th overall in 2007 to 17^th overall this year, but their run defense is pretty much the same as last year, moving from 28^th overall to 26^th. And since they only improved in one aspect, their overall improvement hasn’t been that great, going from 27^th overall in defense to 22^nd overall.

Their line play also reflects the improvement in their pass rush, but not in their run defense. This stems from the fact that Babineaux is an undersized tackle (he only weighs 284lbs) and Grady Jackson is too old and out of shape to be that effective at stopping the run.

	2007	2008
Adj. Sack Rate	21st	11th
Adj. Line Yards	28th	21st

So who are the new and improved Falcons? They’re a team with a very dangerous offense and an average defense. Their passing game is as good as the Cardinals, only they can also run the ball with Michael Turner. Defensively, they can be run on (which bodes well, as I said earlier) and their pass defense is heavily reliant on Abraham getting to the quarterback. If Bryant McKinnie can keep him off of Tarvaris Jackson, their secondary isn’t strong enough to stop the Vikings passing game (which doesn’t mean the Vikings can’t stop their own passing game). They are, however, good enough to test Tarvaris in a way that the Lions and Cardinals aren’t, which means how he plays on Sunday should go a long way to determining the Vikings’ starting QB once Gus Frerotte is healthy.

If the Vikings play well, they should win. If they don’t, the Falcons can quite easily walk out of the Metrodome with the victory. As has been true the last few weeks, this is a must win game for the Purple—it’s a chance to clinch the NFC North, stay in the hunt for a first round bye and exorcise a few of the demons from the 1999 NFC Championship game.

The Falcons Offense

You know what the best part about the regular season is? Rather than having to discuss things like Belicheck v. Childress, dog fighting, roster cuts, coaching searches or any of that other incidental stuff that isn't football, we get to talk about the game. And it's a real game, that counts. And the Vikings, lucky them, get to play a team that they match up against perfectly on defense. The Falcons are a running team, with a shaky quarterback and a group of receivers that like to drop passes. And we all know that's exactly the kind of team that has no chance against the Vikings defense.

In seven games against the Vikings, Joey Harrington has completed 161 of his 283 attempts (56.9%) for 1680 yards. He's thrown 8 touchdowns and 14 interceptions while being sacked 12 times. That works out to a quarterback rating of 63.04, or slightly worse than his career rating of 68.1. Not exactly fear inducing numbers, that's for sure.

Harrington isn't the only reason not to be worried about the Falcons passing game. His receivers are pretty awful as well. Joe Horn was the only one who posted a positive DVOA (37.1%) or DPAR (20.7) last year, and he's 35 years old. Roddy White and Michael Jenkins both turned in Troy Williamson like seasons last year, with -.5 and -1.4 DPAR and -16.5% and -17.7% DVOA respectively. Both of them had lower catch percentages than Williamson, hauling in only 47% of the passes thrown their way.

The only real threat in their passing game is their tight end, Alge Crumpler. Last year, he was fourth in the NFL in yards amongst tight ends and second in touchdowns. He was also Michael Vick's favorite target by a long, as Vick threw twenty more passes to him then to any of his wide receivers. Crumpler hauled in 54% of those 103 passes, finishing the season with a 15.5 DPAR and 10.3% DVOA. I'd be a lot more worried about him if it weren't for the addition of a healthy Chad Greenway to the linebackers.

The Falcons awful passing game means that they'll have to rely on their running game to move the ball on offense. And while Jerious Norwood lead a terrific running game that averaged 5.46 yards per carry (1st in the NFL) with a 21.3 DPAR, 35.7% DVOA (3rd amongst running backs) and 53% success rate, the Williams brothers will have something to say about that. They lead the league by only allowing 2.83 YPC last year.

What all of this means is that it's very likely the Falcons offense is going to ignore the Patriots model of attacking the Vikings defense and challenge the Purple's superb run defense with their punishing running game. And I'm sure Pat Williams, Kevin Williams and the line backers are looking forward to it.