A Look at the Falcons

As I said earlier, this Falcons team is not like the Cardinals. They’re a solid team, with wins over the Panthers, Bucs, Saints and Bears and one that dramatically improved their talent in almost every aspect of the game (except for one, which will become apparent and which bodes well for the Vikings) over the offseason. This is a team that could quite easily come into the Metrodome and beat the Vikings (though they’re only 2-5 on the road, they’ve won in Lambeau and at San Diego). And, like any Vikings fan, I have no faith in this team winning a big game (something I’ve only seen them do once), especially against an improved Falcons team that’s still in the playoff hunt.

Comparing their 2008 and 2007 rankings in Football Outsiders’ statistics, the Falcons improvement becomes obvious. They went from 24^th overall in offensive DVOA, and 22^nd and 29^th overall in passing and rushing DVOA, respectively, to 5^th overall, with highest overall passing DVOA and the 14^th best rushing DVOA. That’s what happens when you replace Joey Harrington with the best rookie QB since Dan Marino, you bring in Michael Turner to replace Warrick Dunn and upgrade your offensive line. Here’s where the Falcons’ top QB and RB ranked in 2007 and in 2008:

	2007 DYAR	2007 DVOA	2008 DYAR	2008 DVOA
Quarterback	25th	29th	5th	1st
Running Back	49th	49th	14th	19th

Yup. That’s what we’d call an upgrade (especially at running back—Warrick Dunn was awful last year). Of course, if the Falcons hadn’t upgraded their line by drafting Sam Baker to play left tackle and finding starters Harvey Dahl and Tyson Clabo in the scrap heap, Ryan and Turner wouldn’t be as effective. Their three new starters have upgraded the line’s play as much as Ryan and Turner have upgraded the skill positions.

	2007	2008
Adj. Sack Rate	23rd	5th
Adj. Line Yards	32nd	17th

Unlike on offense, however, the Falcons didn’t overhaul their defense. So while their defense has improved, it hasn’t done so anywhere near as much as the offense. In fact, the improvement can be traced to three things—they let DeAngelo Hall go, defensive tackle Jonathan Babineaux has been healthy all year (he only started 9 games last year) and John Abraham is having a career year. Consequently, their pass defense has improved from 26^th overall in 2007 to 17^th overall this year, but their run defense is pretty much the same as last year, moving from 28^th overall to 26^th. And since they only improved in one aspect, their overall improvement hasn’t been that great, going from 27^th overall in defense to 22^nd overall.

Their line play also reflects the improvement in their pass rush, but not in their run defense. This stems from the fact that Babineaux is an undersized tackle (he only weighs 284lbs) and Grady Jackson is too old and out of shape to be that effective at stopping the run.

	2007	2008
Adj. Sack Rate	21st	11th
Adj. Line Yards	28th	21st

So who are the new and improved Falcons? They’re a team with a very dangerous offense and an average defense. Their passing game is as good as the Cardinals, only they can also run the ball with Michael Turner. Defensively, they can be run on (which bodes well, as I said earlier) and their pass defense is heavily reliant on Abraham getting to the quarterback. If Bryant McKinnie can keep him off of Tarvaris Jackson, their secondary isn’t strong enough to stop the Vikings passing game (which doesn’t mean the Vikings can’t stop their own passing game). They are, however, good enough to test Tarvaris in a way that the Lions and Cardinals aren’t, which means how he plays on Sunday should go a long way to determining the Vikings’ starting QB once Gus Frerotte is healthy.

If the Vikings play well, they should win. If they don’t, the Falcons can quite easily walk out of the Metrodome with the victory. As has been true the last few weeks, this is a must win game for the Purple—it’s a chance to clinch the NFC North, stay in the hunt for a first round bye and exorcise a few of the demons from the 1999 NFC Championship game.

Needing Some Big Plays

The Vikings' game against da Bears looks eerily similar to their game against the Titans. It's on the road, against a team with a very good defense, an above average offense and solid special teams (punt. the ball. out of bounds). And just like against the Titans, I'm not optimistic about the Vikings' chances, especially if injured cornerbacks Nathan Vasher and Charles Tillman are able to play (both sat out against the Falcons).

One of the problems is that I don't think Brad Childress can come up with a game plan that will be successful against an above average defense, especially one that's as opportunistic as da Bears'. It hasn't helped that Adrian Peterson has three fumbles in his last three games and Gus Frerotte has thrown three interceptions in his four games as a starter. The good thing is that da Bears have not been able to apply consistent pressure this year, although their 5.8% adjusted sack rate isn't much different than the Lions' 5.6% ASR. They're still shutting down the run, however, and trail only the Ravens and Vikings in DVOA against the run.

Offensively, Chicago seems to have found a quarterback, but I refuse to be afraid of a passing game lead by Kyle Orton, especially behind a line as average at protecting the quarterback as da Bears and with receivers like Brandon Lloyd and whatever's left of Marty Booker. Where Orton has been successful is with short passes, particularly to his tight ends and Matt Forte. 82 of his 198 attempts have gone to either Greg Olsen, Desmond Clark or Forte. And while the Vikings are missing their best linebacker, they've still been successful at shutting down tight ends and running backs in the passing game, with a -6.8% DVOA against tight ends and a -10.2% DVOA against running backs. That success is directly attributable to Ben Leber and Chad Greenway, both of whom have been amazing in coverage this year (like, for example, when Leber was blanketing Devrey Henderson).

Chicago won't be able to run the ball either, both because they're playing the Vikings and because Forte has already started to hit the rookie wall (which will go by Jared, Kevin, Pat, Ray, Ben and Chad this week). He's averaged less than 4 yards a carry the last five weeks and da Bears haven't cracked 3.5 yards per carry as a team since Week 3.

So once again, it looks like it should be a close game, with one or two big plays determining the eventual outcome. Can Bernard Berrian or Adrian Peterson break long touchdown? Will the Vikings' punt "coverage" let Devin Hester score multiple touchdowns? Which defense will convert a turnover into a score? The Vikings have made 21 "big plays" to Chicago's 18, but da Bears have been much better at preventing the big play, only allowing 15, while the Vikings have allowed 25.

On paper, the Vikings look like they have a chance against a decent offense and a good defense. That chance, however, rests on plays that are not easy to predict and can't be expected. I'm probably just being pessimistic, but without a huge game from the defense, Adrian Peterson or Bernard Berrian (think 2 TDs, 150 yards type big game), I just don't see the Vikings winning.

Going for 11 Straight Against the Lions

Make no mistake about it--this game is a must win for the Vikings if they want to make the playoffs. The Lions are, quite possibly, the worst team in the NFL this year (and the only reason that’s not a certainty is because the Rams are just as bad). Yes, they’ve fired Matt Millen (the Kevin McHale of the NFL), but there’s only so much an interim GM can do during the season to turn around a team in the trade shy NFL, something the Lions’ embarrassing 34-7 home loss to the Bears last week only served to highlight.

It doesn’t even take a knowledgeable football fan to figure out that this might be the worst Lions team ever. They have a legitimate shot at losing every game. They’ve been outscored by 81 points in their first four games (an average of 20.25 points per game), which is the second worst in the league, topped only by the Rams, who have been outscored by 104 points in their first four games (see what I mean about the Rams?). They’ve given up 147 total points, tied with the Rams for the most points allowed and have only scored 66 points. That’s the third fewest points, behind the Rams (who sadly, are not on the Vikings’ schedule this year) and the Chiefs, who tried using Tyler Thigpen, who was cut by the Vikings’ last year, at quarterback for two games. Quite simply, their offense has been horrible, although, it’s probably not a good sign for the Vikings that the Purple’s offense has scored the same number of touchdowns in five games as the Lions have scored in four.

Defensively, they’re just as bad. I mean, what else do you need to know about a defense, other than the fact that they just allowed Kyle Orton to complete 70.5% of his passes for 334 yards and two touchdowns? They’ve yet to hold a team under 31 points, are allowing 180 rushing yards per game, have only four sacks so far this year and have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 67.5% of their passes. Quarterbacks have a QB Rating of 121.5 against them so far this year. Basically, they’re turning every quarterback they face into the 2004 version of Peyton Manning. And by every quarterback, I mean Matt Ryan,, Aaron Rodgers, J.T. O’Sullivan and Kyle Orton.

And yet, it seems likely that the Vikings’ offense will continue to sputter. They couldn’t run the ball against the Saints, who held the Vikings to 1.7 yards per carry, despite allowing running backs 5.22 yards per carry in their previous four games. The Vikings couldn’t move the ball through the air either, except when Gus Frerotte closed his eyes and chucked it deep to Bernard Berrian (or Aundrae Allison) and hoped Berrian would adjust and come back to the under thrown ball.

Of course, if Berrian continues to play as well as he did against the Saints, it may not matter that Frerotte and “accuracy” can’t really be used in the same sentence. Then again, he's still battling a knee injury and missed most of practice this week. There isn’t anyone in the Lions secondary that’s as good as Mike McKenzie or Terry Porter (which says a lot, actually, because neither is a Pro Bowl type). And Dwight Smith is still good for at least one blown coverage at safety a game. The Lions don’t have the same type of speed at linebacker as the Saints did either, which means they won’t be able to shut down outside runs the same way the Saints did either (though, if Childress had just, you know, made an adjustment and pounded the ball up the middle against the Saints’ small linebackers, that might not have been an issue). This week, the Purple might want to avoid running the ball to the right (more so than they normally do), because that’s where the Lions’ best player, linebacker Ernie Sims usually is, but aside from Sims, there really isn’t anyone on the Lions who requires a team to game plan for them.

Defensively, the Vikings will have to be careful of the Lions’ passing game. While their quarterback situation is up in the air (it doesn’t matter if the Lions start Jon Kitna, Dan Orlovsky or Drew Stanton, all three are liable to get yanked or hurt), they still feature the same quality wide receivers they’ve had the last two years (insert your favorite Matt Millen draft joke here). Calvin Johnson has started to play like the #2 overall pick (well, at least as much as he can within the Lions’ offense). Roy Williams remains a threat, although prone to dropping passes (he’s only caught 42% of the balls thrown his way) and Mike Furrey remains a capable third receiver. That’s about it for the Lions’ offensive talent though. Their offensive line has allowed four sacks a game and struggles to open up holes in the running game. While rookie Kevin Smith has shown some promise, he’s only averaged 3.6 yards per carry. Rudi Johnson has been better, with a 5.3 yards per carry average, but neither is a threat to break a big play and neither is a threat against the Vikings, even though they’re missing E.J. Henderson.

No matter which way you slice it, the Lions are an awful team and one the Vikings’ should beat easily. Add in the fact that it’s a division game (which will factor into possible tiebreakers for the division crown and the wild card berths) and it’s a game that the Vikings must win to keep pace. They’ve managed to get most of the way out of the 1-3 hole they dug themselves in just one game against the Saints (with some help from the Packers and Bears), but they have to capitalize on opportunities like this one if they want to see the postseason for the first time since 2004. Odds are it’ll be an ugly game, unless Adrian Peterson goes off for 250+ yards or the Vikings’ defense creates points off of turnovers, but the Vikings should come out with a 30-17 win, and in today’s NFL, that’s all that matters.

A Very Winnable Game

If, while watching the game tonight, you start to feel like you've seen this Saints team play before, don't be surprised--you have. Of course, that was four years ago, and the team you were watching was in Purple. Like the 2004 Vikings, the Saints have a top five offense based on an elite passing game, a bottom ten defense and they play in a dome.

Of course, there are some differences, but the differences are close enough for it to be a fair comparison. Like Daunte Culpepper, Drew Brees does not get sacked easily, though he avoids the rush by getting rid of the ball quickly, rather than being 6'6" 280 (that, my friends, is what I call hard hitting analysis). That doesn't mean a dominant pass rush can't make a huge difference. In games in which Brees is under constant pressure, he tends to make quick decisions that lead to turnovers. It will be up to the Vikings' front four to get in Brees' face, because the Saints are going to spread the field, with lots of quick passes and are able to exploit blitzes easily. They won't be facing more than the five linemen which means they won't have to worry about double teams--they just have to beat their man and get in Brees face. They probably won't sack him that often, but they can knock his passes down and they can knock him down. If they can't do that, Brees will pick the coverage apart.

The Vikings defense does have the luxery of not having to worry about the Saints' ability to run the ball. This won't even be a case of the Vikings' tremendous rush defense being the reason, either, as the Saints' are averaging less than 3.4 yards per carry so far this year and are 22nd in rushing DVOA, with a -5.4%. To put that in context, the Saints have gotten about as much value out of their running game as the Vikings' have gotten out of their passing game.

Of course, when you have the ultimate scat back, like the Saints do, it doesn't matter as much that they can't run the ball. As I wrote on Friday, Reggie Bush is at his most dangerous when he's catching a pass, and with the loss of E.J. Henderson for a month or so, he becomes even more dangerous. Luckily for the Purple, though, the Saints' receiving corps has been ravaged by injuries, and they are missing Jeremy Shockey, David Patton and Marques Colsten. They still have Devery Henderson to attack deep and Lance Moore, who's stepped up and replaced Colsten as Brees' number one option. Moore is 7th in DYAR so far this year and 3rd in DVOA among all wide receivers. Make no mistake--he's a very dangerous weapon and one that Drew Brees is very comfortable using.

When the Vikings' have the ball, they should be able to do quite a bit offensively. The Saints do not have a good defense and are missing nickleback Aaron Glenn and starting defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis. Ellis suffered a knee injury against the 49ers last Sunday that will require surgery and the Saints are going to miss him. He had 11 tackles and one sack in the first four games and was the best run stopper on the team. Even with him, however, the Saints were unable to stop the run, and have given up almost 500 yards on the ground on less than 100 carries. Opposing running backs have gained an average of 5.2 yards per carry (which means that the Saints have basically turned every back into Adrian Peterson) and they're 28th in rush defense DVOA, last in adjusted line yards and have given up runs of 10+ yards 15% of the time. And now they don't have their best defensive tackle (and the Vikings are getting Bryant McKinnie back). That's not a good sign for the Saints.

The Saints haven't been able to stop the passing game either. They've been worse than the Purple have been (they're 18th to the Vikings' 14th in DVOA), despite doing a decent job of applying pressure. The Saints' pass rush has been about average, with a 6.8% adjusted sack rate, the 16th best in the NFL (6.9% is the NFL average). That means their secondary has been awful, which isn't too surprising considering that Mike McKenzie has started only one game, and rookie corner back Tracy Porter is the only corner back to start all four games.

The Vikings' should be able to pass on the Saints (even if Bernard Berrian is banged up again). They should be able to run the ball on the Saints. The question is, can the Vikings' defense keep the Saints' passing game from going off for 30 plus points. If the Vikings can limit the Saints to 24 points (their lowest total so far this year), then the offense should be able to match that (or Zygi should just fire Brad Childress after the game). If the Saints score 30+ points, they're going to win the game, barring Adrian Peterson going into Purple Jesus mode (the Vikings have not scored 30+ points without Adrian rushing for 200+ yards or by creating a ton of turnovers).

With the Packers and Bears remaining in sight, the Vikings can get back into the division race with a win tonight. I'm not sure they can do it against a passing game as good as the Saints. I see the Purple dropping the game 31-20 and falling to 1-4. Zygi's going to mad again tonight.

Desperate for a Win

As I said yesterday, if you look at the Vikings and Panthers' records, this game seems like a mismatch. However, when you delve a little bit further, it becomes apparent that the Vikings not only have a very good chance of winning this game, they've played as well as the Panthers have, only without the results. If Gus Frerotte can get the passing game to work better than Tarvaris Jackson did, the Vikings should beat the Panthers and begin climbing back into contention. If he can't, however, the Vikings will be sitting at 0-3 and basically done for the season, with only a 3.4% chance of making the playoffs.

Rank	Team	Total DVOA	Last Week	DAVE	Rank	OFF DVOA	Rank	DEF DVOA	Rank
18	MIN	-1.7%	22	17.2%	8	0.4%	18	-5.8%	11
19	CAR	-2.0%	17	2.7%	17	1.4%	15	3.4%	17

As you can see, the Vikings have a slightly better DVOA than the Panthers do and are still considered the better team by DAVE, which combines the preseason projection and the results so far in an attempt to get a more reliable ranking of teams early in the year. The Vikings have been much better on defense overall (you want a negative defensive DVOA) and have been relatively comparable offensively.

When you start to break it down a even more, the differences between the Vikings and Panthers becomes more apparent.

Rank	Team	OFF DVOA	Last Week	OFF DAVE	Rank	Pass OFF	Pass Rank	Rush OFF	Rush Rank
18	MIN	0.4%	19	9.5%	9	-18.1%	24	16.1%	7
15	CAR	1.4%	9	2.1%	13	-3.8%	19	6.4%	14

Offensively, the Panthers are a much better passing team than the Vikings are. You probably knew that. They aren't a great passing team though, as their DVOA passing is negative. Of course, that's without Steve Smith and as we've all seen before, Steve Smith is the kind of difference maker that can practically win a game by himself. Runningwise, the Panthers have a solid line and two good backs, including a stud rookie in Jonathon Stewart. Stewart's actually fourth overall in DYAR and DVOA so far this year, and he's 8th in Success Rate, which isn't a surprise because he is a load to tackle (The Purple Jesus is 2nd, 5th and 6th in those three categories). DeAngelo Williams is a good back as well and is 17th in DYAR and 16th in DVOA. So while it's not unreasonable for them to be splitting the carries 50/50, he's going to start losing carries to Stewart, just like Chester Taylor lost carries to Adrian Peterson. That hasn't happened quite yet, however.

Defensively, the Panthers have trouble against both the pass and the run, but their issues stopping the pass are nowhere near as pronounced as the Vikings.

Rank	Team	DEF DVOA	Last Week	DEF DAVE	Rank	Pass DEF	Pass Rank	Rush DEF	Rush Rank
11	MIN	-5.8%	23	-8.0%	7	15.6%	22	-31.1%	4
17	CAR	3.4%	27	-3.0%	11	3.6%	14	3.1%	19

The Panthers’ struggles against the pass come from their inability to get pressure. This isn't a new or unexpected issue, either, as the Panthers had the second fewest sacks last year and lost two of their best pass rushers when they traded Kris Jenkins and lost Mike Rucker to retirement. They've also had problems against the run (something the Vikings just might be able to exploit), though they've done a better job than the Packers and Colts, who are ranked 23rd and 24th, respectively, in DVOA against the run.

So, the statistics say that there's hope for the Vikings on Sunday. That might not matter, however. The Vikings' do have the home field advantage and they're definitely the more desperate team, but I think the Panthers still have the edge for two reasons. The first is the Vikings' injuries. Bernard Berrian and Sidney Rice are banged up to the point where they might not be able to be effective with Peyton Manning circa 2004 throwing to them, let alone with Gus Frerotte. Adrian Peterson is having hamstring issues. And that's not even factoring in that Visanthe Shiancoe is perfectly healthy and just waiting for the perfect moment to drop a key pass.

The second reason I think the Panthers have the advantage is that this will be Steve Smith's first game back from his suspension. There are few players in the NFL that scare me more than a fired up Steve Smith. And Steve Smith will be fired up on Sunday, which, when combined with the Vikings' mediocre to awful secondary, means that, while we likely won't see him mock-rowing in the end zone, we are likely to see him do some shadow boxing there.

I think the Panthers win this one, 27-13, dropping the Vikings to 0-3 and guaranteeing that a new regime is going to inherit a team one quarterback away from Super Bowl contention. Wonder if Bill Cowher will want to coach a running game like the Vikings have?

The Rivalry Kicks It Off

It all begins tonight, and, appropriately, it begins on the NFL's biggest weekly stage, against the Vikings' biggest rival. No Vikings' team has had the expectations or the hype of this Vikings' team since the 1999 version, and tonight we begin to learn whether the Purple are up to the challenge. And make no mistake about it-the Packers will present them with a challenge and are probably the most likely to keep them from winning their first NFC North title (though, if you watched da Bears last night, you probably had the same flashbacks to 2006 as I did-let's all hope their performance had more to do with Peyton Manning and company being rusty than anything da Bears did).

Green Bay, while starting a new quarterback, is still pretty much the same team that went 13-3 last year. Football Outsiders has them ranked 3rd in team DVOA prior to the season, two spots better than the Vikings, who are ranked fifth. And the ranking is justified. The Packers are a young team with a good defense, a deep group of wide receivers and some question marks at quarterback, running back and in the secondary.

The Packers defense was 15th overall in the league last year in defensive DVOA, and while they traded Corey Williams and his seven sacks to the Browns, they still have a pair of the best defensive ends in the game, although KBG's knee issues may be the difference between Gus Frerotte getting 15 starts and zero. The Packers core of linebackers is also impressive, even if A.J. Hawk is battling an injury and announcers (and Packer fans) instinct to overhype a white middle linebacker. The secondary, however, is getting older, especially the cornerbacks. Al Harris is 33 and Charles Woodson is 31 and both could drop off significantly, making the Packers even more reliant on their defensive line to stop the pass. And if the defensive line can't get to the quarterback, well, don't be surprised to see a lot more wide recievers "Plaxico" Harris and Woodson. (Do I believe that Artis Hicks and Ryan Cook can keep the Packers off Tarvaris Jackson, allowing Bernard Berrian to "Plaxico" the Green Bay's secondary? In a word, no. Tarvaris is good at avoid sacks, but he still needs some blocking.)

Offensively, the Packers' biggest question mark, is, of course, at quarterback. Aaron Rodgers was good in his one real appearance against the Cowboys, but that doesn't mean a whole lot. It could be the real Rodgers, or the real Rodgers could be a new version of David Carr. As Adam Duerson of SI.com points out, Rogers has been sacked once every 6.55 times he's dropped back so far and he was sacked once every 7.71 times this preseason. He'll likely be missing his third receiver as well, since James Jones' knee will probably keep him out of the game. He'll still have the second (Greg Jennings) and 25th (Donald Driver) most valuable wide receivers in DVOA last year to throw to though. The Vikings' secondary is good, especially if they are able to keep Antoine Winfield on the inside, but the loss of Madieu Williams leaves rookie Tyrell Johnson at safety, something that doesn't exactly inspire confidence. Basically, like the Packers, the Vikings' ability to stop the pass will hinge on their ability to get to Rodgers. Last year, Clifton shut down Jared Allen, but he got help, something that would require the Packers to leave Ray Edwards and Kevin Williams single teamed (Can you tell I'm excited about the New Purple People Eaters? Because I am.)

Don't expect Rodgers to get any help from Ryan Grant either. He's slowed down by a hamstring injury, a lack of reps in training camp (something important for a player entering their second year) and he'll have to try and run through a defense that is still angry about their performance against him last year. It's one thing to get 119 yards against the Vikings once--it's a whole 'nother thing to do it a second time.

The Vikings will have success at getting to Rodgers and shutting down the run. That means the game will come down to whether or not the Purple's offensive line can keep the Packers off Tarvaris Jackson and open up holes for Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor. If they can do both, the Purple will win easily. That's not likely, however. While the Vikings will likely continue to have success running the ball, Tarvaris is going to see a lot of pressure tonight. If he can make good decisions (NO JUMP PASSES), wiggle out of a few sacks and make one or two plays downfield, the Vikings can pull the game out. If he buckles under the pressure, however, it'll be Green Bay's fifth straight win against the Vikings. I still have confidence in Tarvaris, which means the final score will look like this:

Vikings 24, Green Bay 13.

5 Questions With The Curly R

Once again, I had the pleasure of trading 5 questions with Ben, from the Curly R. My answers to his questions will be up over at his site soon.

1) How much will the loss of Rocky McIntosh affect the 'Skins run defense?

Considerably. Gregg Williams prefers veterans and he brought Rocky along slowly as a rookie last year, playing him mostly on special teams and in spot duty. But this year he had become the every down weakside linebacker and he will be hard to replace. Rocky seals that left side to prevent the run from getting to the sideline.

With 34 year old Randall Godfrey inactive last week, he is a versatile guy that can play all three linebacker positions and with Marcus Washington back from the hamstring he was not expected to get much playing time, rookie sixth rounder HB Blades played the run downs with veteran Khary Campbell playing the passing downs. However this week I expect Randall Godfrey will play most of the time. A soft spot on the Redskins defense just opened up for you.

2) Is Joe Gibbs coming back next year? Do you want him back? And who's his successor, Gregg Williams or Al Saunders?

Honestly I don't know. At this point I don't know what's best for the team, what's best for the fans, I have no idea. If you had asked me before game 10 against the Cowboys I would have said it was time to move on, Joe Gibbs was not only not getting it done on the field, he was making bad mistakes. Game management problems, confusion getting the play in, things that were not supposed to happen to the Space Cowboys, Joe Gibbs, (former Vikings offensive coordinator) Jack Burns, Don Breaux, Joe Bugel, Al Saunders, they were supposed to bring veteran savvy and a calming presence to the team. Instead it has seemed at times like a bunch of old men all trying to decide which socks to wear while the phone rings.

Then the way the team played it close with the Cowboys and Buccaneers, it was 'almost' football.

Then Sean Taylor died.

And so I have no idea.

Look at it another way: the Redskins have lost a halftime lead in five of their seven losses. So that looks like a coaching problem, right? Cutting it another way the Redskins are 5-6 in games decided by one score or less. The defense has played well all season, particularly in the red zone and so with some offensive adjustments the team could press its advantage and build a more solid lead. Which also sounds like a coaching problem.

But ultimately I have no idea if this team is better served in 2008 with the same leadership and likely many of the same questions, or by a whole new regime with few or no ties to the tumultuous experience that has been this season.

I can say for sure that when the time comes I do not want to see either Gregg Williams or Al Saunders as coach. My early favorite is Russ Grimm.

3) Is Todd Collins a viable NFL quarterback, or was his great game against the Bears a fluke?

Todd is a short term fix at quarterback. He is 36 so he is not necessarily ready to stand in there and take blindside after blindside like a young gun (thankfully he has Pro Bowl left tackle Chris Samuels watching his back) so the offense will have to conserve a little by keeping the tight end or tailback in to block for him (as a blocker Clinton Portis is underrated by everybody except Clinton Portis). Although I saw a little zip in his passes against the Giants, Todd's specialty is the touch pass, a floater that is right where the catcher needs it to be, a pass that can easily be hauled in. And since he knows the offense so well he knows where those passes need to be.

The way to confound touch passers is to jam the passing lanes so there are hands everywhere to knock it down. Todd does not throw with the same velocity as Jason Campbell and teams will key on that.

It was fortuitous that if Jason had to go down he went down in the 13th game because Todd is at best a four game solution at quarterback. Much more than that and he would begin to resemble the guy in Buffalo that always had dirt on the back of his jersey.

4) The Redskins have one of the better pass defenses in the NFL (79.5 QB rating against)--how are they doing it? Has Fred Smoot actually contributed?

To some surprise the defense has improved greatly since last season. There was not much room to go down when you were ranked number 31 last year but the Redskins made no serious investment in the defensive line in the offseason and despite bringing back Loveboat Freddie and signing linebacker London Fletcher I thought it was putting trhe horse in the barn after he's eaten your children with no investment in pass rush or stopping the run.

I think the defensive improvement is a result of four factors:

1. Defensive end Andre Carter has *gasp* lived up to his big ass contract this season. Last year he was not outstanding until the end of the season and now I think he got jobbed being left off the Pro Bowl list, hard to argue with Aaron Kampman and Patrick Kerney but Andre has had more tackles than Osi Umenyiora, and only 1.5 fewer sacks. A full half of Osi's total this season came from one game against the Eagles and one game doth not a Pro Bowl sean make. Andre has been consistent all year and *horrorshow* has actually played the run!

2. Shudder to think, but the Redskins have actually acquired some good young player and developed them. Defensive tackles Anthony Montgomery and Kedric Golston are low round pick second year players and have both been starters at time. Although they are no gargantuan hulking masses of rib eating tailback stuffing space eaters to the likes of Pat and Kevin Williams they have not disappointed. Two other players, Lorenzo Alexander and Chris Wilson also represent the Redskins newfound ability to develop young defensive talent.

3. London Fletcher. Leads the team in tackles. Gregg Williams' presence on the field. Finds the football. Nuff said.

4. Loveboat Freddie. he has never been a physical player, we joked two weeks ago when he was on the sideline (we did not know at the time he was vomiting blood, for which he would be spirited to the locker room, poked with an IV and then when he realized he was not going to die he told the trainers, look! Over there! A unicorn! and ripped out the IV and ran back into the game) that he was receiving treatment for a sore forearm he makes so many arm tackles.

Since Carlos Rogers went down with serious knee injuries in game seven against the Patriots Loveboat Freddie has stepped it up and he had an outstanding game against the Giants last week covering Plaxico Burress while giving up something like seven inches. He is challenging receivers at the line now and not giving up such large cushions that quarterbacks exploit for short catches and long RAC.

5) Who do you have winning on Sunday and why?

I'm going to call this one for the Redskins. The Vikings are on a hot streak winning five in a row but that Bear victory was not decisive and the crowd was not into it for much of the game. I think the Redskins rattle Tarvaris Jackson with linebackers trying to hit the run holes and jam them against Adrian Peterson. Adrian in his emerging Barry Sanders way will break a few long ones but the Redskins will be hoping to contain. The Redskins secondary will try and confuse Tarvaris into bad throws and with Sydney Rice out or playing hurt it removes or reduces the number of targets.

On offense I think they do just enough to win. Clinton Portis rushes for less than 100 yards, less than four yards per carry and Todd Collins makes no huge game changing mistakes. If I were a betting man and I am I would take the points and the under (MIN -6.5, 40.5)

Mike Sellers Runs His Mouth

This is Mike Sellers. Mike Sellers is the fullback for the Washington Redskins. And he’s got a chip on his shoulder. You see, Sellers here, he got left off of the Pro Bowl roster because the fans, coaches and players thought chose Tony Richardson instead. Mike Sellers isn’t going to take that lying down though. Oh no, not Mike Sellers. Instead, he’s going to show the entire world why he should have been chosen for the Pro Bowl by helping the Redskins out rush the Minnesota Vikings.

It’s certainly an interesting idea, but how likely is it? I mean, the Vikings rush defense isn’t an ordinary rush defense. Nope. It’s got Kevin and Pat Williams, E.J. Henderson, Chad Greenway, Ben Leber and Keneci Udeze. It almost set the record for best rush defense EVER last year, and it’s been dominate once again, allowing only 2.97 yards per carry this season. Ryan Grant is the only back that has rushed for more than 100 yards against them and that game was the only game in which Vikings were out rushed this season. And I’d bet that the defense has a little extra motivation now that Sellers has started running his mouth.

And it’s not like the Redskins have a dominate rushing game either. The ‘Skins are averaging a paltry 3.81 yards per carry, which is only good for 23^rd in the league. While they had some success (4.4 YPC) against the Giants, who have a decent run defense (3.96 YPC allowed), the Giants are allowing almost a yard more per carry than the Vikings. And even after that game, neither Clinton Portis nor Ladell Betts is averaging 4 yards a carry, with Portis averaging 3.9 YPC and Betts averaging 3.7 YPC.

It doesn’t look good for Mr. Sellers, and we haven’t even gotten to the Vikings running game (or the Todd Collins run Redskins passing game, and its average of 6.1 yards per passing attempt). Aside from the three Pro Bowlers on the line, the Vikings’ have the Purple Jesus, who’s averaging an amazing 5.9 yards per carry. If he can up that average by a tenth of yard, he’ll be the fourth running back to average 6 yards per carry in the history of the NFL, joining O.J. Simpson, Jim Brown and Barry Sanders. He’s so good, he managed to gain ground in the race for the rushing title without even playing last night! And he, along with his partner, Chester Taylor (5.3 YPC), will be going up against a run defense that is allowing 3.92 yards per carry for the season. That’s right-the Redskins are allowing more yards per carry on defense than they are gaining on offense. And that’s before taking into consideration the fact that they lost their second leading tackler, LB Rocky McIntosh, to a horrible knee injury on Sunday, not to mention the tragic loss of their Pro Bowl strong safety (and honorary Viking), Sean Taylor.

Doesn’t look all that likely that Mr. Sellers will be able to achieve his goal, does it?

Fear and Da Bears

I'll be perfectly honest--this game scares me to death. How many times have the Vikings been here before? How many times have they had a playoff spot/victory/Super Bowl in their hands only to give it up against teams they shouldn't have? I mean, wasn't it just a four years ago that the Vikings, needing only one win to clinch a playoff berth, faced a Bears team with no playoff hopes and, despite having Daunte Culpepper, Randy Moss and a stellar offense, lost 13-10 when Moss had the ball ripped out of his arms by Charles Tillman in the end zone?

And now the Saints are breathing down the Vikings neck in the playoff chase, and there's a Bears team that's been eliminated from the playoffs coming into the Metrodome and I am terrified. It doesn't matter that the Bears' sole offensive weapon only plays special teams. It doesn't matter that the Bears defense has suffered so many injuries and played so poorly that they're giving up 4.22 yards per carry (22nd in the NFL). It doesn't matter that their pass defense makes opposing quarterbacks look like Drew Brees (92.1 QB rating against and 92.1 QB rating for respectively). It doesn't matter that the Purple Jesus performed his first miracle against them. I am terrified of this game because this game (and the following two games) are the type of games that the Vikings have been losing since the 2000 season.

You think I'm joking? Since the 2000 season, the Vikings have gone 3-15 in the last three games of each season (not counting 2002, in which they were nowhere near playoff contention), including 0-3 last year. They have yet to finish better than 1-2 this millennium, managing that feat only three times. And it's not like the Vikings have just gotten unlucky against good competition either (examples include the Bears game mentioned above, the Cardinals game in 2003, the loss to a 6-10 Redskins team in 2004 and many more that I don't want to go into). Obviously, this didn't prevent the team from making the playoffs in 2000 and 2004, but it certainly did in 2003, 2005 and 2006. And it certainly looks like a 1-2 or 0-3 finish would eliminate this years team as well.

So you'll have to pardon me if I don't get worked up about the Vikings' failure to maintain a "culture of accountability". I don't have the energy. Honestly, at this point, all I really want out of Childress is for him to create a culture of winning so they can stop choking and finish strong. And yeah, I didn't mean to be this negative, so I'm sorry about that, but misery likes company, so I thought I'd share.

My brain says the Vikings win 31-13, but my gut says Bears 20, Vikings 14. I hope the Purple Jesus and the Tarvaris Revolution listen to my brain.

Friday Roundup

Thursday's Game
Last night's game between the Redskins and Bears could not have gone any better for the Purple. Chicago's loss dropped them to 5-8 and 2-7 in the conference, all but officially eliminating them from the playoff chase. The Redskins improved to 6-7 and 4-5 in the NFC, but the Vikings will have the opportunity to beat them at the Metrodome, which will be an easier task now that their starting quarterback, Jason Campbell, is likely done for the year with a dislocated knee cap. That means they'll be forced to rely on Todd Collins, who, prior to last night, hadn't seen the field since 2004, or Mark Brunell, who makes Brad Johnson look like a spry, young gunslinger.

Rex Grossman was also hurt, but Chicago has not yet released the severity of his leg injury. To be honest, I'm not sure whether Grossman missing next Sunday's game would help or hurt the Vikings.

The Revolution--Better Than the Big Names
Don't look now, but the Tarvaris Revolution has a better quarterback rating (and DPAR and DVOA) than Vince Young, Alex Smith, Kellen Clemens, Rex Grossman and David Carr. Both Young and Clemens were picked ahead of Tarvaris in the 2006 draft, Grossman lead Chicago to the Super Bowl last year and Smith and Carr were both taken first overall. And I know I wasn't the only one who argued that the Vikings should have acquired Carr to be their starter this year. Shows how much I know.

The Pace the Purple Jesus Needs
In order to break Eric Dickerson's rookie record of 1,808 rushing yards, the Purple Jesus would need to average 153 rushing yards over the last four games of the season. It's a daunting task, but it's in now way outside the realm of possibility, especially considering the Vikings are facing the teams who are ranked 27th (49ers-124 YPG) , 26th (Bears-123.2 YPG), 8th (Redskins-94.8 YPG) and 31st (Broncos-149.1 YPG) in rushing yards per game

Sunday's Pick
Sunday's game against the 49ers is, quite simply, a game the Vikings should win. There are no excuses at all. This isn't a trap game, since the Vikings shouldn't be looking past a team that embarrassed them last year, a loss that probably kept them out of the playoffs. The 49ers are an awful team, on offense and on defense. They're quarterbacked by Trent Dilfer. Their only real threat is running back Frank Gore, and he's only broken 100 yards rushing in a game once, and he needed overtime to do so. Seriously folks--the next time I worry about this team's ability to shut down the run when facing a mediocre to bad quarterback will be the first. The Vikings are the superior team in all aspects of the game and one that's riding a tidal wave of momentum. That's why I'm picking the Vikings in a blowout, 30-10.

If You Even Want to Call It an Offense...

The 49ers offense is one of the most pathetic offenses in the NFL. If it weren't for the fact that they can run the ball (an 8th best 4.2 yards per carry), they would run away with the distinction, because they can't do anything else.

The 49ers cannot:

• Pass the Ball--they are averaging a league worst 3.99 yards per attempt. (The Vikings are averaging 7.02 YPA). And no, it doesn't help that they have Trent Dilfer under center
  

• Protect the Quarterback--they have given up 43 sacks, tied for 30th in the NFL. They are also have a league worst negative pass play percentage of 13.3%, which means that they make every defense look like the best in the league at creating sacks and interceptions. They're also have the second worst adjusted sack rate, at 9.8%.
  

• Protect the Ball--the Niners have thrown 15 interceptions and fumbled the ball 9 times, four of which the other team recovered.

• Establish Good Field Position--with an average kickoff return of 22.4 yards and punt return of 9.3 yards, the 49ers special teams haven't helped their offense out. Maurice Hicks, their kick returner, only has one return for more than 40 yards, and Michael Lewis, their punt returner, only has three, despite have 56 kick returns and 40 punt returns. The Niners have yet to return a kick or punt for a touchdown and Lewis has also fumbled three punts.
  

• Score Points--San Francisco's average of 13.7 points per game is the worst in the NFL. They've scored less than 20 points in ten of their twelve games, only hitting the twenty point mark against against the Cardinals in Week 1 (20 points) and Week 12 (31 points)

For this game, it shouldn't matter that Ray Edwards was suspended four games for steroid use, nor should it matter that his likely replacement, Erasmus James, is battling knee problems. Antoine Winfield should be back and the Vikings defense should dominate a putrid 49ers offense.

Can the Tarvaris Revolution Continue?

Last year, a 4-3 Vikings team with playoff aspirations went into San Francisco, and, against a defense that was allowing an average of 33.6 points per game, managed one field goal in a 9-3 loss. After an offseason spending spree, the 49ers defense has improved, but only from league worst to below average (23.8 ppg-24th overall).

Here's the thing-despite focusing on improving their pass defense in the offenseby signing corner Nate Clements to a whopping 8 year, $80 million contract and safety Michael Lewis and drafted LB Patrick Willis and DE Ray McDonald in the first and third round, the Niners defense has not only failed to improve, it's gotten worse. Last year, their defense was 28th in opposing passer rating and 25th in Negative Pass Play Percentage (NPP). Quarterbacks posted a 90.9 QB Rating against them and were only able to cause a Negative Pass Play (an interception or a sack) 8.7% of the time, or a little less than 3 times a game, despite opponents running an average of 32.4 pass plays a game.

This year, even with improved personnel, the Niners have allowed opposing quarterbacks to post a 91.9 QB rating while only causing a negative pass play 7.9% of the time, which equates to about 2.6 of the 33.9 pass plays opponents have passed against them.

To put those statistics in context, consider that Peyton Manning has a 92.5 QB rating and that the Giants have the best NPP, with 12.79%, or 4.25 times out of 33.2 attempts. Here are the Vikings' last three opponents' opposing QB rating and NPP:

Team	Opposing QB Rating	Negative Pass Play Percentage	Tarvaris’ QB Rating
OAK	74.1 (6th)	10.58% (7th)	79.9
NYG	84.6 (18th)	12.79% (1st)	139.2
DET	93.0 (29th)	9.05% (18th)	110.4

To put it bluntly, this will be one of the worst passing defenses Tarvaris will see all year. And it's not like he'll have to carry the load either, as the Vikings should be able to run against them as well (the Niners are allowing an average of 3.8 YPC). Then again, Brad Johnson and Chester Taylor shouldn't have had any problems against them last year.