NFC Playoff Table--Week 10

The NFC playoff picture got a lot more jumbled on Sunday. As you can see, there are two new additions to the table—Green Bay (*$#!) and San Francisco. Both of them, however, enter without many tiebreakers, with San Francisco’s victory over the Vikings (*$#!) being the only one, and difficult schedules. Green Bay still has to go to Chicago, face a newly healthy Seattle and play the two best teams in the AFC East. And San Francisco has one of the hardest schedules remaining, with five games against teams leading their division, and two more against playoff contenders.

The other two contenders in the NFC West, Seattle and St. Louis, don’t have nearly as tough a road as San Francisco. Seattle doesn’t face a single .500 NFC team the rest of the way, and their sweep of St. Louis pretty much guarantees them the division. St. Louis’s schedule is harder, but they have the opportunity to obtain tiebreakers over wild card competitors Carolina and Minnesota, although both games are on the road.

The teams in the NFC East and South, while all over .500, also all face at least four more teams from the NFC playoff race, mainly consisting of teams from the two divisions. The Giants, Eagles, Cowboys, Saints, Panthers and Falcons are going to play each other a lot over the final seven games, and they’re going to cannibalize each other, ruining overall and NFC records. I’d be surprised if, aside from the division winners, more then one team emerged from the fray with a record of 10-6 or better.

That means that 9-7 will likely be good enough to make the playoffs, so long as it’s the right 9-7. The key, more then anything, will be the conference record, which is why the 9-7 teams from the NFC South and NFC East are going to have problems getting in. They’re remaining schedules are heavy with NFC teams, and all of them sit at 5-4 or better overall, but only Philadelphia has a winning conference record. So if they finish at 9-7, their NFC record will likely take a hit from their three losses, putting them at a disadvantage for the tiebreaker.

Their disadvantage is the Vikings’ advantage. While the team has not been playing well of late (that is what I like to call an “understatement”), they still sit at 4-3 in the NFC. If they get to 9-7, they will have to go 5-2 to close the season, meaning that, at worst, their conference record would be a solid 7-5. And if one or both of those two losses are the “right” kind of loss (against the Jets or Dolphins), they’ll have a 9-3 or 8-4 conference record to go with tie breakers over Seattle and Carolina and possibly St. Louis. That should be enough for them to get in. Of course, in order for that to play out, they’ll have to play well enough to finish 5-2, which is a whole ‘nother story (Viva la Tarvaris Revolucion!)

[As always, the playoff table is done a bit due to formatting issues.]

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Here it is! As before, .500 teams are in bold and non contenders from the NFC are italicized. Da Bears are not in the table because they aren't contenders for the Wild Card.

Team	Record			NFC Record	Tiebreakers		Tiebreaker Games Left	Division Games Left		Opponents Left
MIN	4-5			4-3	SEA, CAR		STL	@GB, @DET, @CHI		NYJ, ARZ, MIA
NYG	6-3			5-2	ATL		@CAR, NO	DAL, PHI, WAS		@JAX, @TEN
PHI	5-4			4-3	GB, SF		CAR, ATL	@WAS, @NYG, @DAL		TEN, @IND,
DAL	5-4			3-3	CAR		NO, @ATL	@NYG, PHI,		IND, TB, DET
NO	6-3			5-1	PHI, NO		@DAL, @NYG, SF	@ATL, CAR		CIN, WAS
ATL	5-4			3-3	NONE		DAL, @PHI	NO, CAR, @TB		@BAL, @WAS,
CAR	5-4			3-3	NONE		STL, @PHI, NYG	@ATL, @NO		@WAS, PIT, BYE
SEA	6-3			5-2	NYG, STL		GB,	@SF, @AZ, SF		@DEN, SD, @TB
STL	4-5			3-3	GB		@CAR, @MIN	SF, AZ		CHI, @OAK, WAS
GB		4-5	3-4			NONE	@SEA, @SF		DET, MN, @CHI	NE, NYJ
SF		4-5	3-3			MN	@NO, GB		SEA, @SEA, @STL, AZ	DEN

Two Adjustments

Take a look at the following two ineffective quarterbacks’ stats and try and guess which one is starting on Sunday, and which is being replaced for the quarterback of the future:

COM ATT PCT YDS LNG TD INT RAT

162 260 62.3 1789 74 8 4 86.5
(16 total offensive TDs)

181 288 62.8 1877 46 5 9 74.4
(8 total offensive TDs)

These types of comparisons are sort of clichéd and all, and I’m sure you’ve guessed that the quarterback running the better offense, with the higher passer rating, more touchdowns, fewer interceptions, and that set the record for consecutive completions and led his team to the playoffs last year, is the one taking the seat. Mark Brunell, of the awful 3-6 Redskins is being replaced by Jason Campbell, while Brad Johnson, of the 4-5 Vikings will be captaining the impotent Vikings’ offense once again. When the Redskins have a lower draft pick than the Vikings, you’ll know why. Say it with me now, "Viva la Tarvaris Revolucion!"

Brad Johnson is not, in and of himself, the sole reason the Vikings are playing so poorly (there are many). On the other side of the ball, Mike Tomlin needs to make adjustments to his rushing scheme. Brett Farve is the most turnover prone quarterback in history, and yet, the Vikings did not get a single interception on Sunday. The reason is pretty obvious—the lack of pressure (not putting Winfield on Driver every play didn’t help either). The Vikings failed to sack Farve once on Sunday, and were rarely ever in his face. It’s a lot easier for Farve to avoid making bad decisions if he has enough time to consider his options, do something enthusiastic, check his reads again, display some more of his endless love for football, go through his progressions one final time and then throw the ball. I don’t care if Champ Bailey, Paul Krause, Ronnie Lott and Jesus Christ himself are covering guys—when the secondary has to cover for that long, receivers are going to get open (not that the secondary did all that great a job of covering receivers). The Vikings were doing a decent job of getting to the quarterback up until the Monday night game against the Patriots. Bill Belicheck figured out how to protect Brady and it appears that the league has caught on. Tomlin needs to make adjustments to his blitz and rush package so that someone gets to Joey Harrington, otherwise the Vikings really can write this season off (I’ll explain why I’m still holding out hope tomorrow).

Mad as Hell

I’m too angry about yesterday’s game to analyze it properly. I’m too angry about the lack of offense. Too angry about the awful calls against the Vikings. Too angry about the mental breakdown by the defense right before the half. Too angry about the failure to cause the quarterback with the second most career interceptions to throw a single one. And too angry about the second straight conference loss that shouldn’t have happened. The Vikings are not out of the playoff race yet, but they’ve relinquished control of their own destiny.

There’s not a whole lot to say about the offense’s poor production so far this season that isn’t said by noting that the offense has only scored more then two touchdowns in a game once, against Seattle, and that they’ve only matched yesterday’s output of two TDs once, against Washington. Something needs to change. And since there’s no way to bring in better receivers (though Billy McMullin stepping up yesterday was nice), and it’s a little too late to install a new offense, the only real answer is to change the man under center. That’s right folks—no more hedging. It’s time for the Tarvaris Revolution!

Of course, if the officiating had been a little better, then the Vikings would likely have been able to come away with a win, because their special teams would have bailed out the offense once again. The illegal block penalty on Artose Pinner was an awful call, and one that changed the complexion of the game. It should have been a no call, and Bethel Johnson’s touchdown should not have been called back. The refs showed, however, that they were willing to step in even in dubious situations when they called a penalty for unnecessary roughness on Cedric Griffin after Donald Driver got the lateral from Greg Jennings.

Now, I want to be mad about the defense allowing that play to happen, but it’s hard to expect the secondary to be prepared for laterals like that (and is it just me, or does stuff like that happen all the time against the Packers?). But their breakdown at the end of the first half was inexcusable. There is no way that Donald Driver should be allowed to take a slant 82 yards for a touchdown. And of course, my anger at the defense wasn't helped by the Brett Farve slurping that occurred afterwards. I’d bet Farve planned out his celebration in order to maximize the amount of love he received on Sportscenter for his "enthusiasm for the game". Please shoot me now.

The season is not over, however. The playoffs are still well within reach. Dropping the last two games, however, have seriously damaged the Vikings’ chances and my confidence in their ability to capitalize on their schedule. If Childress doesn’t do something about the offense soon (Viva le Tarvaris Revelucion!), it won’t matter how easy the schedule is--the Vikings won't make the playoffs

Can the Recievers Hurt Tarvaris?

Yesterday, I asked whether or not it was time to start Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback. In response, Pacifist Viking stated, “I'd hate to see Tarvaris's confidence destroyed as his passes bounce feebly off of Troy
Williamson's hands.” It was an interesting statement, and one that prompted this post. How much of an effect can bad receivers have on a young quarterback? And what can you expect from a rookie quarterback? In order to answer this question, I went over to http://www.pro-football-reference.com and started looking at the stats for the first two years of the three quarterbacks that Tarvaris has been most compared to: Michael Vick, Steve McNair and Donovan McNabb.

2001 Atlanta Falcons

| Name              |  G | CMP ATT   PCT YARD  Y/A TD IN | 

+-------------------+----+-------------------------------+

|Michael Vick       |  8 |  50 113  44.2  785  6.9  2  3 |   

Receivers

| Name               |  G |  REC  YARD   AVG  TD |

+----------------------+----+-----------------------+

| Brian Finneran     | 16 |    23   491  21.3  3 |

| Shawn Jefferson    | 16 |    37   539  14.6  2 |

| Tony Martin        | 14 |    37   548  14.8  3 |

| Terance Mathis     | 16 |    51   564  11.1  2 |

| Quentin McCord     |  7 |    3    53   17.7  0 |

2002 Atlanta Falcons

| Name              |  G | CMP ATT   PCT YARD  Y/A TD IN | 

+-------------------+----+-------------------------------+

| Michael Vick      | 15 | 231 421  54.9 2936  7.0 16  8 |

Receivers

| Name               |  G |  REC  YARD   AVG  TD |

+----------------------+----+-----------------------+

| Brian Finneran       | 16 |    56   838  15.0   6 |

| Trevor Gaylor        | 12 |    25   385  15.4   3 |

| Willie Jackson       |  7 |    18   199  11.1   0 |

| Shawn Jefferson      | 12 |    27   394  14.6   1 |

| Quentin McCord       |  9 |    11   253  23.0   1 |

1995 Houston Oilers

| Name              |  G | CMP ATT   PCT YARD  Y/A TD IN |  

+-------------------+----+-------------------------------+

| Steve McNair      |  6 |  41  80  51.2  569  7.1  3  1 | 

Receivers

| Name                 |  G | REC  YARD   AVG  TD |

+----------------------+----+-----------------------+

| Malcolm Floyd        | 15 |  12   167  13.9   1 |

| Travis Hannah        | 16 |  10   142  14.2   0 |

| Haywood Jeffires     | 16 |  61   684  11.2   8 |

| Roderick Lewis       | 15 |  16   116   7.2   0 |

| Michael Roan         |  5 |   8    46   5.8   0 |

| Derek Russell        | 11 |  24   321  13.4   0 |

| Chris Sanders        | 16 |  35   823  23.5   9 |

1996 Houston Oilers

| Name              |  G | CMP ATT   PCT YARD  Y/A TD IN |

+-------------------+----+-------------------------------+

| Steve McNair      | 10 |  88 143  61.5 1197  8.4  6  4 |

Receivers

| Name                 |  G |   REC  YARD   AVG  TD |

+----------------------+----+-----------------------+

| Willie Davis         | 16 |    39   464  11.9   6 |

| Malcolm Floyd        | 16 |    10   145  14.5   1 |

| Roderick Lewis       | 16 |    7    50    7.1   0 |

| Derek Russell        | 16 |    34   421  12.4   2 |

| Chris Sanders        | 16 |    48   882  18.4   4 |

| Sheddrick Wilson     | 11 |    2    24   12.0   0 |

1999 Philadelphia Eagles

| Name              |  G | CMP ATT   PCT YARD  Y/A TD IN |  

+-------------------+----+-------------------------------+

| Donovan McNabb    | 12 | 106 216  49.1  948  4.4  8  7 |

Receivers

| Name                 |  G |   REC  YARD   AVG  TD |

+----------------------+----+-----------------------+

| Na Brown             | 12 |    18   188  10.4   1 |

| Dameane Douglas      | 14 |     8    79   9.9   1 |

| Dietrich Jells       | 14 |    10   180  18.0   2 |

| Charles Johnson      | 11 |    34   414  12.2   1 |

| Chad Lewis           |  6 |     7    76  10.9   3 |

| Torrance Small       | 15 |    49   655  13.4   4 |

| Troy Smith           |  1 |     1    14  14.0   0 |

2000 Philadelphia Eagles

| Name              |  G | CMP ATT   PCT YARD  Y/A TD IN |

+-------------------+----+-------------------------------+

| Donovan McNabb    | 16 | 330 569  58.0 3365  5.9 21 13 |

Receivers

| Name                 |  G |  REC  YARD   AVG  TD |

+----------------------+----+-----------------------+

| Na Brown             |  9 |    9    80   8.9   1 |

| Dameane Douglas      |  3 |    1     9   9.0   0 |

| Charles Johnson      | 15 |   56   642  11.5   7 |

| Todd Pinkston        | 16 |   10   181  18.1   0 |

| Torrance Small       | 14 |   40   569  14.2   3 |

| Alex Vandyke         |  1 |    1     8   8.0   0 |

As you can see from the above stats, all three quarterbacks were pretty inaccurate their first year, with only McNair completing more than half of his passes. Their receivers likely had something to do with their completion percentages also. Terrance Mathis, Haywood Jefferies and Torrence Small were the leading receivers on the three teams, and none of them were all that good of a wide out. Simply put, the guys that Vick, McNair and McNabb were throwing to were average at best. The interesting thing is that only the Eagles brought back their leading receiver the next year, and McNabb’s completion percentage went up the least.

Based on Vick, McNair and McNabb’s careers, it looks like the Vikings’ awful receivers won’t necessarily have an effect on Tarvaris’ development. It obviously can’t be ruled out, but its something that good coaching should be able to prevent. Unless, of course, Tarvaris just doesn’t have the mental makeup to be an NFL quarterback, at which point it’s all moot. That does not, however, make me think that Tarvaris should be starting this week. His development has been hampered by his knee injury, and as these three quarterbacks showed, it’s not easy to go from college ball to the NFL. They also showed that giving a rookie limited playing time can pay off the next year—both Vick and McNabb went to the Pro Bowl their second year in the league. Most likely, Tarvaris would not solve the offense’s woes, because while he may add another dimension with his speed, he would likely hurt the passing game as he adjusted. I think the best thing to do at this point is to start giving him a few reps a game, including in the red zone, where his speed would force the defense to pay attention to him, making it easier for the receivers to get open. And if Brad Johnson is awful again against the Packers, then it will be time for the Vikings to cut their losses on the season and begin the Tarvaris Era.

Ugh.

I have to say that was a disappointing weekend all around. First, the Borat movie was bad. And I mean bad. It had all the excruciatingly awkward parts of a good Borat sketch, but with none of the funny parts. That being said, it still wasn’t as excruciating as watching the Vikings attempt to play “offense” against the 49ers. If there is a loving, all powerful, omniscient God, I will never have to watch something that painful again. Sadly, it seems the Vikings are proof that God can’t be loving, omnipotent and all knowing. It breaks my heart, it really does.

• Brad Johnson is awful. AWFUL. A-W-F-U-L. He currently sits at 26^th in the NFL in passer rating, behind such amazing quarterbacks as Mark Brunell, Alex Smith, J.P. Lohsman and Daunte Culpepper. That would be somewhat excusable if he was performing like he was supposed to (i.e. making good decisions, not turning the ball over and generally managing the game). He’s not. Once again, he turned the ball over in crucial situations and made some inexplicable decisions. It’s his decision making that angers me the most. It’s like he’s bipolar. Sometimes, he’ll check down unnecessarily, or hold on to the ball too long and have to make a rushed throw or take a sack. And then other times, he’ll decide to force the ball down field into double or triple coverage. Case in point: the last two times the Vikings had the ball. The second to last drive, the Vikings faced third and three, and Brad, waited and waited and waited, (for what I don’t know) and eventually ended up throwing the ball into the ground while trying to evade the rush. No one was wide open, but it wasn’t like his receivers were all doubled. And then he became manic on the next drive, forcing a deep ball to Bethel Johnson on 4^th and 7 (forcing deep balls on fourth down being something he apparently likes to do) and effectively ending the game. Someone get him some Lithium before Green Bay comes into town.
• Troy Williamson, meet Kenny Rogers. Kenny Rogers, Troy Williamson. Troy, Mr. Rogers is going to teach you how to apply sticky substances to your hands so you don’t drop the football.
• The only positive thing that came out of yesterday’s game on the offensive side of the ball was the continued dominance of Chester Taylor. Man, is that guy good. He’s really in a groove right now, seeing holes, bouncing it outside when there’s nothing up the middle and breaking tackles. He’s also shown he’s a consistent big play threat, taking a pass 65 yards for a touchdown. Wait…you mean that got called back because of an illegal block? Oh.
• The defense was its normal dominant self, holding the Niners to 9 points, less then 200 yards and picking off an Alex Smith pass. Clearly, that’s not enough. At this point, the defense can’t be content to hold their opponents under 20 points, or even under 10 points. They have to score more points then they give up, otherwise the Vikings are going to lose. Luckily for the Vikings’ playoff hopes, the defense might just be able to do that.
• Finally, a legitimate question for my tens of readers: is it time to start the Tarvaris Jackson era? Could he be any worse then Brad is right now?
  

Worried About a 2-5 Team

I’m not going to try and relate this game to the big picture. I’m pretty sure everyone knows what happened on Monday, why it wasn’t as bad as it seemed for the Vikings’ playoff hopes and why the Vikings have to win on Sunday against the 49ers. And they’re going to have to do it without two of their better players—Marcus Robinson will likely be out for the second straight week, and Napoleon Harris, after spending the first seven games showing that the Vikings actually got something for Randy Moss, will also spend the day on the bench due to an injured wrist. It’s the latter injury that will be harder for the Vikings to overcome.

Why you ask? (See that was a literary device—you and I both know why Harris being out is worse.) I’ll give you a hint. It starts with a “pass” and ends in an “overage”. The 49ers and their quarterback (who has a higher completion percentage than Brady) are going to attempt to throw the ball all over the field, mimicking the Patriots strategy. And that worries me a lot, especially with Napoleon Harris out. The Vikings run defense may be the best in the league, but their pass defense is not. They have trouble applying pressure without blitzing (which Harris is good at), and they’ve demonstrated that inferior quarterbacks can pick them apart (see Lohsman, J.P.). Alex Smith is somewhere in the middle of the quarterback pack, with a completion percentage that is better then Brady’s (though inflated somewhat by completing 78.9% against the Raiders) and the talent of a first round pick, but also with the inexperience of a second year signal caller. He’s not going to be able to make all of the throws Brady did, nor is his protection anywhere near as good as the Patriots’. But the 49ers having at least Buffalo like success through the air is something that is likely enough that the Vikings are in trouble if they haven’t made the necessary adjustments this week.

Of course, if the offense doesn’t get its act together, it probably won’t matter how well the defense plays. The list of things that the Vikings need to improve upon is numerous, but they pretty much all stem from Brad Childress’ idea to focus mainly on the air attack. At this point in Brad Johnson’s career, the offense should never, ever, ever revolve around him. He’s old, immobile and he has a weak arm, which becomes really problematic when he feels like he has to make plays. He just can’t do it anymore, and asking him to do so is almost a guarantee that the Vikings will lose. Quite simply, the offense has to revolve around Chester Taylor. If he gets 25 carries, and the Vikings run the ball 30+ times, their offense is more efficient and less reliant on players to do things they are unable to do. Brad Johnson can convert 3^rd and 5. That’s not unreasonable to ask him to do. He can hit guys that are wide open deep (sometimes) but he’s not making the kind of throws that a team which passes the ball 75% of the time needs their quarterback to make. Brad Childress knows this. It’s why the Vikings haven’t won a game without running the ball 30+ times. On Monday night, however, he decided to get cute, and came out throwing rather then pitting his offense’s strength against the Patriots’ defensive strength. Naturally, it backfired and the Vikings got killed. Thankfully, he shouldn’t feel that temptation against San Francisco, since they’ve allowed 123.3 yards a game on the ground.

It’s the 49ers inability to stop the run that should lead to their downfall. Alex Smith is talented, but he’s no Tom Brady. Which is why I see this game playing out similarly to the Bills game—the Niners are going to come out throwing, and they’re going to be somewhat successful. They aren’t going to torch the Vikings like the Patriots did, however. Unlike against Buffalo and New England, however, the Vikings are going to pound the ball, allowing them to match the Niners’ offensive output and wear down the defense. With neither team able to put the other away, this game will be decided by whichever team makes a big play on defense or special teams. And the Vikings are a lot better at doing that then the 49ers are. Which is why I think the Vikings are going to get back on track on Sunday, after a big play by the defense or special teams leads to an easy touchdown, going to 5-3 with a 24-17 victory.

NFC Playoff Table: Week 8

The NFC playoff race got shaken up a bit this week, becoming more muddled in spots, and clearer in others. The Giants look like the favorite to win the NFC East, but New Orleans, Seattle and St. Louis all stumbled. That means the Vikings are still a favorite for a Wild Card berth, but rather then taking control of their own destiny, they instead laid an egg against the Patriots, leaving them tied with the Rams and Cowboys for the sixth best record in the NFC. Luckily for the Vikings, they chose to get destroyed by an AFC team, preserving their 4-1 conference record, and leaving them with the tiebreakers. And they should keep those tiebreaker, with 5 games left against NFC teams with losing records, and a home game against the Rams. Those games, along with their home game against a mediocre Jets team (no wins over teams with winning records) mean that the Vikings should 1) finish at least 10-6 and 2) finish with tiebreakers over their competition.

Of course, this all depends on whether or not the Vikings have the ability to stop teams from doing what the Patriots just did to them. That, and if Brad Childress remembers when calling plays that he has a good running back and a bad quarterback. His first chance to do so is on Sunday against San Francisco. I'll have a preview up tomorrow.

[Once again, due to formatting issues, the playoff table is done the page. Sorry about that.]








Formatting issues are....










A) Annoying









B) Obnoxious











C) Not easy to fix









D) All of the Above












The correct answer is....









D) All of the Above

Team	Record	NFC Record	Tiebreakers	Tiebreaker Games Left	Division Games Left	Opponents Left
MIN	4-3	4-1	SEA, CAR	STL	GB, @GB, @DET, @CHI	NYJ, ARZ, @SF
NYG	5-2	5-1	ATL	@CAR, NO	DAL, PHI, WAS	HOU, CHI, @JAX, @TEN
PHI	4-4	3-3	NONE	CAR, ATL	WAS, @WAS, @NYG, @DAL	TEN, @IND, BYE
DAL	4-3	2-2	CAR	NO, @ATL	@NYG, PHI, @WAS	ARZ, IND, TB, DET
NO	5-2	4-1	PHI	@DAL, @NYG	@ATL, CAR @TB	@PIT, CIN, SF, WAS
ATL	5-2	3-2	NONE	DAL, @PHI	NO, CAR, @TB	@DET, CLE, @BAL, @WAS,
CAR	4-4	2-3	NONE	STL, @PHI, NYG	TB, @ATL, @NO	@WAS, PIT, BYE
SEA	4-3	4-2	NYG	NONE	STL, @SF, @AZ, SF	OAK, GB, @DEN, SD, @TB
STL	4-3	3-2	NONE	@CAR, @MIN	@SEA, SF, AZ	KC, CHI, @OAK, WAS