It's Not Over, But It's Over

I'm not going to analyze this game. It was too depressing. Too many things went wrong, mostly because of stupid mistakes that the Vikings should not have made. And then, right when it seemed like the tide was turning and the Vikings had recovered a fumbled snap, well, there's nothing like having a review saddle you with a "12 men on the field" penalty to end any thought of a comeback.

After games like today, well, it's hard not to compare rooting for the Vikings with being in an abusive relationship. The Purple always seem to draw you in, show you the good times, make you think that they've changed and then they just smack you around.

Well, moving on....

I'd like to wish everyone a Merry Christmas (if that's your thing) and I hope yall enjoy the holiday--don't let the Purple get you down.

Tailgating in the blizzard

I've been tailgating outside the dome for the last two hours and I cannot wait for the game to start! I haven't been at a Vikings game since the Detroit game last year. Hopefully, this game goes as well. I'm unbelievably nervous-I've seen the Purple screw perfect situations like us up way too often. Win and we are in. Rice and Winfield are officially out (as is Alex Buzzbee, who graduated from Georgetown a year after me, and who is the first Hoya to make an NFL team in about 50 years). this is the game the Purple always seem to lose-let's hope they pull it out tonight.

SKOL VIKINGS!!!

5 Questions With The Curly R

Once again, I had the pleasure of trading 5 questions with Ben, from the Curly R. My answers to his questions will be up over at his site soon.

1) How much will the loss of Rocky McIntosh affect the 'Skins run defense?

Considerably. Gregg Williams prefers veterans and he brought Rocky along slowly as a rookie last year, playing him mostly on special teams and in spot duty. But this year he had become the every down weakside linebacker and he will be hard to replace. Rocky seals that left side to prevent the run from getting to the sideline.

With 34 year old Randall Godfrey inactive last week, he is a versatile guy that can play all three linebacker positions and with Marcus Washington back from the hamstring he was not expected to get much playing time, rookie sixth rounder HB Blades played the run downs with veteran Khary Campbell playing the passing downs. However this week I expect Randall Godfrey will play most of the time. A soft spot on the Redskins defense just opened up for you.

2) Is Joe Gibbs coming back next year? Do you want him back? And who's his successor, Gregg Williams or Al Saunders?

Honestly I don't know. At this point I don't know what's best for the team, what's best for the fans, I have no idea. If you had asked me before game 10 against the Cowboys I would have said it was time to move on, Joe Gibbs was not only not getting it done on the field, he was making bad mistakes. Game management problems, confusion getting the play in, things that were not supposed to happen to the Space Cowboys, Joe Gibbs, (former Vikings offensive coordinator) Jack Burns, Don Breaux, Joe Bugel, Al Saunders, they were supposed to bring veteran savvy and a calming presence to the team. Instead it has seemed at times like a bunch of old men all trying to decide which socks to wear while the phone rings.

Then the way the team played it close with the Cowboys and Buccaneers, it was 'almost' football.

Then Sean Taylor died.

And so I have no idea.

Look at it another way: the Redskins have lost a halftime lead in five of their seven losses. So that looks like a coaching problem, right? Cutting it another way the Redskins are 5-6 in games decided by one score or less. The defense has played well all season, particularly in the red zone and so with some offensive adjustments the team could press its advantage and build a more solid lead. Which also sounds like a coaching problem.

But ultimately I have no idea if this team is better served in 2008 with the same leadership and likely many of the same questions, or by a whole new regime with few or no ties to the tumultuous experience that has been this season.

I can say for sure that when the time comes I do not want to see either Gregg Williams or Al Saunders as coach. My early favorite is Russ Grimm.

3) Is Todd Collins a viable NFL quarterback, or was his great game against the Bears a fluke?

Todd is a short term fix at quarterback. He is 36 so he is not necessarily ready to stand in there and take blindside after blindside like a young gun (thankfully he has Pro Bowl left tackle Chris Samuels watching his back) so the offense will have to conserve a little by keeping the tight end or tailback in to block for him (as a blocker Clinton Portis is underrated by everybody except Clinton Portis). Although I saw a little zip in his passes against the Giants, Todd's specialty is the touch pass, a floater that is right where the catcher needs it to be, a pass that can easily be hauled in. And since he knows the offense so well he knows where those passes need to be.

The way to confound touch passers is to jam the passing lanes so there are hands everywhere to knock it down. Todd does not throw with the same velocity as Jason Campbell and teams will key on that.

It was fortuitous that if Jason had to go down he went down in the 13th game because Todd is at best a four game solution at quarterback. Much more than that and he would begin to resemble the guy in Buffalo that always had dirt on the back of his jersey.

4) The Redskins have one of the better pass defenses in the NFL (79.5 QB rating against)--how are they doing it? Has Fred Smoot actually contributed?

To some surprise the defense has improved greatly since last season. There was not much room to go down when you were ranked number 31 last year but the Redskins made no serious investment in the defensive line in the offseason and despite bringing back Loveboat Freddie and signing linebacker London Fletcher I thought it was putting trhe horse in the barn after he's eaten your children with no investment in pass rush or stopping the run.

I think the defensive improvement is a result of four factors:

1. Defensive end Andre Carter has *gasp* lived up to his big ass contract this season. Last year he was not outstanding until the end of the season and now I think he got jobbed being left off the Pro Bowl list, hard to argue with Aaron Kampman and Patrick Kerney but Andre has had more tackles than Osi Umenyiora, and only 1.5 fewer sacks. A full half of Osi's total this season came from one game against the Eagles and one game doth not a Pro Bowl sean make. Andre has been consistent all year and *horrorshow* has actually played the run!

2. Shudder to think, but the Redskins have actually acquired some good young player and developed them. Defensive tackles Anthony Montgomery and Kedric Golston are low round pick second year players and have both been starters at time. Although they are no gargantuan hulking masses of rib eating tailback stuffing space eaters to the likes of Pat and Kevin Williams they have not disappointed. Two other players, Lorenzo Alexander and Chris Wilson also represent the Redskins newfound ability to develop young defensive talent.

3. London Fletcher. Leads the team in tackles. Gregg Williams' presence on the field. Finds the football. Nuff said.

4. Loveboat Freddie. he has never been a physical player, we joked two weeks ago when he was on the sideline (we did not know at the time he was vomiting blood, for which he would be spirited to the locker room, poked with an IV and then when he realized he was not going to die he told the trainers, look! Over there! A unicorn! and ripped out the IV and ran back into the game) that he was receiving treatment for a sore forearm he makes so many arm tackles.

Since Carlos Rogers went down with serious knee injuries in game seven against the Patriots Loveboat Freddie has stepped it up and he had an outstanding game against the Giants last week covering Plaxico Burress while giving up something like seven inches. He is challenging receivers at the line now and not giving up such large cushions that quarterbacks exploit for short catches and long RAC.

5) Who do you have winning on Sunday and why?

I'm going to call this one for the Redskins. The Vikings are on a hot streak winning five in a row but that Bear victory was not decisive and the crowd was not into it for much of the game. I think the Redskins rattle Tarvaris Jackson with linebackers trying to hit the run holes and jam them against Adrian Peterson. Adrian in his emerging Barry Sanders way will break a few long ones but the Redskins will be hoping to contain. The Redskins secondary will try and confuse Tarvaris into bad throws and with Sydney Rice out or playing hurt it removes or reduces the number of targets.

On offense I think they do just enough to win. Clinton Portis rushes for less than 100 yards, less than four yards per carry and Todd Collins makes no huge game changing mistakes. If I were a betting man and I am I would take the points and the under (MIN -6.5, 40.5)

Mike Sellers Runs His Mouth

This is Mike Sellers. Mike Sellers is the fullback for the Washington Redskins. And he’s got a chip on his shoulder. You see, Sellers here, he got left off of the Pro Bowl roster because the fans, coaches and players thought chose Tony Richardson instead. Mike Sellers isn’t going to take that lying down though. Oh no, not Mike Sellers. Instead, he’s going to show the entire world why he should have been chosen for the Pro Bowl by helping the Redskins out rush the Minnesota Vikings.

It’s certainly an interesting idea, but how likely is it? I mean, the Vikings rush defense isn’t an ordinary rush defense. Nope. It’s got Kevin and Pat Williams, E.J. Henderson, Chad Greenway, Ben Leber and Keneci Udeze. It almost set the record for best rush defense EVER last year, and it’s been dominate once again, allowing only 2.97 yards per carry this season. Ryan Grant is the only back that has rushed for more than 100 yards against them and that game was the only game in which Vikings were out rushed this season. And I’d bet that the defense has a little extra motivation now that Sellers has started running his mouth.

And it’s not like the Redskins have a dominate rushing game either. The ‘Skins are averaging a paltry 3.81 yards per carry, which is only good for 23^rd in the league. While they had some success (4.4 YPC) against the Giants, who have a decent run defense (3.96 YPC allowed), the Giants are allowing almost a yard more per carry than the Vikings. And even after that game, neither Clinton Portis nor Ladell Betts is averaging 4 yards a carry, with Portis averaging 3.9 YPC and Betts averaging 3.7 YPC.

It doesn’t look good for Mr. Sellers, and we haven’t even gotten to the Vikings running game (or the Todd Collins run Redskins passing game, and its average of 6.1 yards per passing attempt). Aside from the three Pro Bowlers on the line, the Vikings’ have the Purple Jesus, who’s averaging an amazing 5.9 yards per carry. If he can up that average by a tenth of yard, he’ll be the fourth running back to average 6 yards per carry in the history of the NFL, joining O.J. Simpson, Jim Brown and Barry Sanders. He’s so good, he managed to gain ground in the race for the rushing title without even playing last night! And he, along with his partner, Chester Taylor (5.3 YPC), will be going up against a run defense that is allowing 3.92 yards per carry for the season. That’s right-the Redskins are allowing more yards per carry on defense than they are gaining on offense. And that’s before taking into consideration the fact that they lost their second leading tackler, LB Rocky McIntosh, to a horrible knee injury on Sunday, not to mention the tragic loss of their Pro Bowl strong safety (and honorary Viking), Sean Taylor.

Doesn’t look all that likely that Mr. Sellers will be able to achieve his goal, does it?

Wednesday's Redskins Links

As a D.C. resident, I'm very familiar with the Redskins and the coverage of the Redskins. Quite simply-when the Washington Post wants to cover something, it is very, very good at covering it. And they really want to cover the Redskins. There's a lot of good stuff out on their website (along with the Washington Times and the various 'Skins related blogs) and so I thought I'd provide yall with some links. If you're asked for a login, you can always go to bugmenot.com, where they have quite a few you can use.

• Todd Collins had a hectic week prior to his first start since 1997. He obviously calmed down enough for the game, however, (perhaps by sniffing some balls?) as his play didn't submarine the Redskins. And while he got the victory, you'll have to pardon me if his 8 of 25 performance, in which he threw for only 166 yards, did not impress me. His blog, however, does.
  

• Collins isn't the only character on the Redskins, that's fo' sho. LaRon Landry goes on a "Suicide Mission" every game. Fred Smoot has an energy bar (which can be shared...heh...), and he's bracing for his return to Minnesota. And then, there's Clinton Portis.
  

• Michael Wilbon weighed on the game (What's the difference between the Post and Star Tribune? The Post trots out Thomas Boswell, Michael Wilbon and Mike Wise to write their columns. The Star Tribune has Jim Souhan).
  

• The Washington Times might not have the big names, but they do have Michael Rand (otherwise known as "Randball"), who wrote a piece that tries to explain the Purple Jesus to the unconverted out here in the Potomac Basin.
  

• Mike Sellers: Not as good as Tony Richardson and not happy about it.
  

• Redskins fans: Winners... Seriously--there are few fans as obnoxious as Redskins fans as a group (I know quite few nice ones, so if you're one of them and you're reading, this isn't about you). Obviously, Green Bay fans and Philly fans are more obnoxious, but I've never had as many people "accidentally" walk into my on purpose as I did walking out of FedEx Field in my Winfield Jersey after the season opening victory against the 'Skins last year.
  

Emmitt's Advice to Adrian

If you missed it on Tuesday morning, Adrian Peterson was interviewed by Emmitt Smith and it was a very interesting piece.

[Thanks to Awful Announcing for the video]

Looking Back at Monday

A few more thoughts on Monday's game:

Special Teams:
The kick coverage was good. The rest of the special teams were not, and that's not even taking into the consideration the fact that THEY MISSED AN EXTRA POINT. Not only did that set off some 'Nam like flashbacks to the Doug O'Brien era, it also means that I will be terrified after every touchdown until the extra point has been kicked. Thankfully it only took the Vikings 15 minutes to score again, so no one had time to get worried about that extra point costing them the game and a playoff berth.

Also, I'd like to take a minute to thank Aundrae Allison for repaying my confidence in him. Nothing like averaging 17 yards on four kickoff returns to show why you should be primary kick returner. Though, it's not like Bobby Wade can say anything, considering he had two fair catches and 12 return yards as the punt returner. Somehow, I doubt the Redskins will be implementing the Hester Rules on Sunday night.

Purple Jesus:
Adrian Peterson is only 39 yards behind Willie Parker for the NFL rushing lead, an impressive feat, considering he has 102 fewer carries (and 62 fewer carries than 2nd place LaDainian Tomlinson). If Peterson had as many carries as Parker, he'd have almost 1800 yards. So there's that. Of course, if Peterson wants to win the rushing title, he's going to have to stop looking for the big play and just run, something he started doing again in the second half on Sunday. His second touchdown was a thing of beauty (well, after the handoff, that is). He looked like he was skiing he was cutting so sharply. The fact that the Redskins second leading tackler, linebacker Rocky McIntosh, is out for the rest of the season probably won't hurt his chances either.

The Tarvaris Revolution:
There are quite a few articles that came out discussing Tarvaris' performance on Sunday and the need for him to improve. And they are deserved, but not as much as they were earlier this year. What we saw on Sunday was Tarvaris' first game where he faced pressure and what we saw were mixed results. He had a 50 quarterback rating, mainly due to the three interceptions and no touchdowns, but he also had an average of 8.6 yards per pass attempt and scrambled for 25 yards, picking up two first downs in the process (and picking up a crucial unnecessary roughness penalty). Luckily the Vikings final two games are against teams that aren't that good at rushing the passer (Washington and Denver are tied at 23rd in adjusted sack rate). If the Vikings make the playoffs, however, he's going to see similar pressure, however, as Tampa Bay is 11th in adjusted sack rate and Seattle is 6th.

Matt Birk and Ryan Cook:
Could these two lineman have played any worse on Monday night? Birk was awful in the blitz pickup (I'm sure that Tarvaris appreciated his decision to help out Steve Hutchinson rather than block Brian Urlacher was appreciated) and Ryan Cook was his usual mediocre self. Honestly, anyone to the right of Hutchinson is suspect, which isn't really something you want to be thinking about when you're in the middle of a playoff race.

Mad Talent
It's the worst of all the sports All Star Games, but it's still an honor to be named to the Pro Bowl, so congratulations must go out to Adrian Peterson, Tony Richardson, Steve Hutchinson, Matt Birk, Darren Sharper, Kevin Williams and Pat Williams. The seven Vikings named (and alternates E.J. Henderson, Heath Farwell, Ryan Longwell and Bryant McKinnie) show how much talent this Vikings team has. It also shows how important the passing game is, as it was the Vikings complete lack of one at the beginning of the season that held the Vikings back.

NFL Playoff Table--Some Scenarios

After the Vikings win last night, there are only five teams still alive for the two wild card berths, the Giants, Vikings, Saints, Redskins and Panthers. So here are the four main scenarios:

• The Vikings finish 2-0. In this scenario, the Vikings would make the playoffs. If the Giants finish 2-0, the Vikings would be the six seed. If the Giants finish 1-1, the Vikings would be the fifth seed.
  

• The Vikings finish 1-1 by beating the Redskins and losing to the Broncos. In this scenario, the Vikings would need the Saints to lose at least one of their remaining games, or for the Giants to lose both of their remaining games in order to make the playoffs. (A win on Sunday coupled with a Saints loss would clinch a playoff berth for the Purple).
  

• The Vikings finish 1-1 by losing to the Broncos and losing to the Redskins. In this scenario, the Vikings would need two of the following to happen in order to make the playoffs: the Saints lose at least one of their remaining games, the Giants lose both of their remaining games and the Redskins lose their final game against Dallas.

• The Vikings finish 0-2. In this scenario, the Vikings would miss the playoffs, as the Giants would finish ahead of them, the Redskins would be guaranteed to have at least an 8-8 record with the head to head tiebreaker over the Vikings and they would lose tiebreakers to an 8-8 Saints team (NFC Record) or an 8-8 Panthers team, so they couldn't sneak in via a three way tie.
  

Team	W-L	NFC Record	Division Record	Tie Breakers	NFC Games Left	AFC Games Left
NYG	9-5	7-5	3-3	None	None	@ BUF, NE
MIN	8-6	6-5	3-3	NYG	WAS	DEN
NO	7-7	6-4	3-3	None	PHI, @CHI	None
WAS	7-7	5-5	2-3	None	@MIN, DAL	None
CAR	6-8	7-4	2-3	None	DAL, @TB	None

Three Stars--Maturing before our eyes

Last night's game was a tale of two halves and of two units. In the first half, the Vikings offense played like the young team they are, making silly mistakes. In the second half, aside from the one interception Tarvaris threw, the Vikings offense played a lot more like the playoff team they might be, scoring two touchdowns and racking up 183 yards of offense.

On the other side of the ball, the Vikings defense played like the veteran, playoff caliber unit they are, holding the Bears to 32 yards on 17 carries (an average of 1.9 YPC) and holding Kyle Orton to only 184 yards on 38 passing attempts. Not to mention Darren Sharper's interception, which sealed the game with under two minutes to go. The defense didn't succumb to the pressure of the national lights and they didn't get too "amped up" like the offense. Rather, they dominated an offense they should have dominated, shutting them out in the second half and only allowing one drive longer than 14 yards in the first half (and that 35 yard drive by the Bears ended in a punt).

We also saw a special teams unit shut down the best returner in the game, as Devin Hester was held to a 14 yard average on kick returns and 7 yards on punt returns, and his longest return was only 17 yards. Of course, we got to hear Tirico, Jaws and Kornheiser scream hysterically every time a kickoff or punt came near Hester. It was so annoying (especially on kickoffs--I mean, what are the Vikings supposed to do? Kick it out of bounds?) that it actually negated the best analysis I've heard out of an announcing crew in a long time, when the three of them discussed the Vikings' pass defense. All three agreed that the fact the Vikings are last in passing yards allowed was misleading, with Kornheiser pointing out that it hadn't translated into points allowed and Jaws mentioning that opponents yards per passing attempt was quite low, something we saw on the field, as the Bears averaged a paltry 4.5 yards per pass attempt.

And it was that defense that won the game for the Purple and that will be reflected in Three Stars this week. While Adrian Peterson's two touchdowns and 78 yards rushing were important, it was his fumble that short circuited what should have been a scoring drive. And while Bobby Wade continues to show why he'll be a great third receiver next year (here's hoping the Purple can sign a real #1 to teach Sidney Rice and take the pressure off of Wade), his six catches for 70 yards wasn't the dominating performance that one would like to see out of the leading pass catcher on the team, nor was Robert Ferguson's 71 yard reception enough to make up for coughing up a pass for Brian Urlacher to intercept (though I would probably reconsider if he'd run at full speed the entire way, rather than slowing up so he could be tackled).

But enough about the Vikings offense. Let's talk about the real Three Stars, all of which come from the defense:

Third Star: Darren Sharper

With the game very much in doubt (something one score games will always be to me, thanks to the Vikings pass defense from 2000-2005), the Bears line gave Kyle Orton some time, leading to him chucking a deep pass to an open Bernard Berrian. Thankfully, Kyle Orton has the accuracy of a drunk (probably because he is a drunk). And thankfully, Darren Sharper was there to pick the pass off and put the game away. There's a very good possibility that Darren Sharper was at least as good a signing as Pat Williams in 2005, which says a lot about Sharper has accomplished for the Purple.

Second Star: Pat Williams

1.9 yards on 17 carries. The Bears were not a great rushing team coming into the game, averaging only 3.18 yards per carry, but that doesn't diminish how dominant a rush defense has to be to hold an offense to 1.9 yards a carry. And the credit should go to the big man in the middle. Pat Williams lead all of the Vikings' defensive linemen with four tackles and he once again dominated Pro Bowler Olin Kruetz.

First Star: E.J. Henderson

He might not get invited to the Pro Bowl, but E.J. Henderson has certainly been playing like one. He was all over the field last night, racking up a team high seven tackles, all of them unassisted. He brought down everyone on the Bears, from Greg Olson to Garrett Wolfe to Adrian Peterson. He knocked down Kyle Orton multiple times and knocked down his passes. Quite simply, he played the way that announcers think Brian Urlacher plays. And aside from the Williams, there is no player who can claim as much credit for the Bears 1.9 yards per carry.

Fear and Da Bears

I'll be perfectly honest--this game scares me to death. How many times have the Vikings been here before? How many times have they had a playoff spot/victory/Super Bowl in their hands only to give it up against teams they shouldn't have? I mean, wasn't it just a four years ago that the Vikings, needing only one win to clinch a playoff berth, faced a Bears team with no playoff hopes and, despite having Daunte Culpepper, Randy Moss and a stellar offense, lost 13-10 when Moss had the ball ripped out of his arms by Charles Tillman in the end zone?

And now the Saints are breathing down the Vikings neck in the playoff chase, and there's a Bears team that's been eliminated from the playoffs coming into the Metrodome and I am terrified. It doesn't matter that the Bears' sole offensive weapon only plays special teams. It doesn't matter that the Bears defense has suffered so many injuries and played so poorly that they're giving up 4.22 yards per carry (22nd in the NFL). It doesn't matter that their pass defense makes opposing quarterbacks look like Drew Brees (92.1 QB rating against and 92.1 QB rating for respectively). It doesn't matter that the Purple Jesus performed his first miracle against them. I am terrified of this game because this game (and the following two games) are the type of games that the Vikings have been losing since the 2000 season.

You think I'm joking? Since the 2000 season, the Vikings have gone 3-15 in the last three games of each season (not counting 2002, in which they were nowhere near playoff contention), including 0-3 last year. They have yet to finish better than 1-2 this millennium, managing that feat only three times. And it's not like the Vikings have just gotten unlucky against good competition either (examples include the Bears game mentioned above, the Cardinals game in 2003, the loss to a 6-10 Redskins team in 2004 and many more that I don't want to go into). Obviously, this didn't prevent the team from making the playoffs in 2000 and 2004, but it certainly did in 2003, 2005 and 2006. And it certainly looks like a 1-2 or 0-3 finish would eliminate this years team as well.

So you'll have to pardon me if I don't get worked up about the Vikings' failure to maintain a "culture of accountability". I don't have the energy. Honestly, at this point, all I really want out of Childress is for him to create a culture of winning so they can stop choking and finish strong. And yeah, I didn't mean to be this negative, so I'm sorry about that, but misery likes company, so I thought I'd share.

My brain says the Vikings win 31-13, but my gut says Bears 20, Vikings 14. I hope the Purple Jesus and the Tarvaris Revolution listen to my brain.

Purple Jesus on Sportscenter

I managed to record Adrian Peterson's interview on Sportscenter this morning and upload it to Youtube. I should have the game preview up in an hour or so. Here's the interview:

NFC Playoff Table--Pregame edition

[I thought I'd post a quick playoff table prior to the Game Preview post, which I'll have up later today]

I guess the Vikings' luck couldn't last forever. With the Redskins and Saints victories, the Vikings still cannot afford to lose a game if they want to make the playoffs. The good news is that the Vikings still control their own destiny, but a loss to the Redskins next week or a loss to the Bears tonight would put their hands in the Redskins and Saints opponents.

There was some good news, however. The Lions' loss pretty much eliminated them, meaning that their is one less team holding a tiebreaker over the Purple in contention. The Giants' loss also means that the Vikings still have a shot at the #5 seed.

Team	W-L	NFC Record	Division Record	Tie Breakers	NFC Games Left	AFC Games Left
NYG	9-5	7-5	2-3	DET, CHI	None	@ BUF, NE
MIN	7-6	5-5	2-3	NYG	CHI, WAS	DEN
NO	7-7	6-4	3-3	ARZ	PHI, @CHI	None
WAS	7-7	5-5	1-3	DET, ARZ	@MIN, DAL	None
CAR	6-8	7-4	2-3	ARZ	DAL, @TB	None
DET	6-8	4-7	3-2	CHI	@GB	KC

Don't Kick to Hester (But not for the reason you think)

While the consensus seems to be that a football team would have to be "Packer Fan" stupid in order to kick the ball to Devin Hester, there are a few voices out their that suggest it might not be as dumb as its made out to be. And I've spent a lot of this week wondering if those voices were right.

One of the things about people is that we tend to have a selective memory. We remember the big plays, but not the average one. We tend to overrate small sample sizes. It's one of the reasons why baseball players that make flashy plays get overrated defensively--they might not have the range of another player, but because they made a jump throw (*cough* Derek Jeter *cough*) where a better player would have made a routine play, they're considered better, because we remember the jump throw and not the routine play or the numerous seeing eye ground balls that he couldn't reach.

So I've been wondering if people have been doing that with Devin Hester. When I started looking into it, I figured that Hester would have a ton of the Bears Big Plays, as measured by Cold, Hard Football Facts. He had six, one of which was his 81 yard touchdown reception against the Vikings. The rest were on kick and punt returns. The Bears have a total of 45 big plays, with 24 of them made by the defense. So Hester has 1/9 of the Bears big plays, a solid total, but not anywhere near as high as I would have expected.

That's not the only thing that struck me when I was looking at Hester's stats. He has six fumbles, two on kick returns and four on punt returns. And he's very much a boom or bust returner, only gaining more than 40 yards the five teams he went the whole way. That means over 36 kick returns and 37 punt returns, Hester only has five returns for more than forty yards. To put that in perspective, of Aundrae Allison's eleven kick returns, he has three returns for more than forty yards.

Honestly, I think there are a lot of good reasons not to give up field position because of the fear of Hester returning a punt or kick for a touchdown, the main one being that it's much more likely he'll fumble or contained than it is that he'll score.

Here's the thing though-even prior to Orton getting named the starter, the Bears have had one of the worst offenses in the NFL. They're 25th in yards per passing attempt with a 5.50 YPA and are the worst in the NFL at running ball, averaging only 3.18 yards per carry. Quite simply, their offense is a joke. And that's why the Vikings shouldn't be kicking the ball to Hester--he's the only threat the Bears have to score. If he were on a better offense, I would likely argue that giving up field position by kicking away from him was worse than kicking to him, but he's not. Now Chris Kluwe just needs to make sure that he actually gets it out of bounds.

Three Stars and Some Links

Ok, so I promised that I'd have these up Monday Afternoon, but, well, I'm still waiting on a new computer (my personal one is broken) and I got swamped at work. That doesn't mean there weren't stars of the game, though! Oh no, don't you worry. We're going to have a consensus MVP this year even if it kills us (and no, I don't think that crowning the Purple Jesus as MVP will kill us). So let's take a look at the three Vikings that turned in the best performances against the Niners. Without them, who knows if the Purple would have done something they'd never done in their 707 regular season game, by winning their third straight game by at least twenty points.

Third Star: Kevin Williams

Kevin Williams' impact on the game can be almost completely described by describing one play. Aside from his interception return for a touchdown, however, he only assisted on one tackle. Of course, Kevin Williams impacts the play even if he isn't making tackles or sacking the quarterback. And he really impacts the play when he makes the fourth interception of his career and returns it for a touchdown, the fourth of his career, effectively ending the game on the 49ers first real play from scrimmage.

2nd Star: Chester Taylor

On a day when Adrian Peterson was held to 2 yards and 14 carries, Taylor rushed for 101 yards, most of which came on an 83 yard touchdown run, the longest by any back so far this season. He has 716 yards so far on the season, and could join Peterson in the 1,000 yard club if he can average 95 yards a game over the final three games of the season. He's been averaging 70.8 yards per game since his return from injury, so it's not outside of the realm of possibility, especially if he breaks off a few more runs like his 84 yarder.

1st Star: Pat Williams

Did you know, that, after handing out 12 weeks worth of stars, Pat Williams has only managed to be recognized once? He was the 2nd Star against the Raiders, accumulating 9 tackles and helping hold Oakland's rushing attack to only 2.26 yards per carry on 27 carries. I can't help but think that I've somehow overlooked the man who might be the most important player on the Vikings' vaunted run defense. That's not an issue this week, however, as it's not possible to overlook someone who had five tackles, a sack (thankfully for Trent Dilfer's health, Big Pat got him with an arm tackle instead of using his full weight) and an interception. Sadly, he didn't get a chance to show off the open field skills he was bragging about to the announcers before the game.

Links

• Gonzo from the Daily Norseman is ecstatic about da Bears starting Kyle Orton. As am I. As am I. (Special thanks to Deadspin for all of the pictures).

• Grant's Tomb and Vikes Geek both tried to explain why the Vikings had so much trouble running against a pretty poor Niners run defense. Personally, I think it had a lot to do with the Niners blitzing a lot on first and second down, which would explain why Peterson and Taylor were tackled for losses seven different times, with Peterson going down behind the backfield six times. It seemed that every time Peterson was in during a running situation, the Niners brought the house. If there's one thing that Childress needs to spend the week on, it's figuring out how to adjust to that strategy, because it will almost certainly be emulated from here on out.
  

• Football Outsiders has the Vikings with a 65.9% chance of making the playoffs. Sports Club Stats has them with a 43% chance. Neither site has any of the teams trailing the Vikings in the Wild Card race with odds that high. In fact, only the Saints have a better than 1 in 5 chance, as Football Outsiders and Sports Club Stats have them at 23.3% and 20.1% respectively.
  

• A nice little satire piece: "Vikings fined for having Adrian Peterson wear Chester Taylor's uniform". It would have worked better if Taylor's 84 yard run on Sunday wasn't the longest in the NFL so far this year and his 95 yard run against Seattle wasn't the longest run last year.
  
  

Playoffs! Playoffs!! (A Look at the Scenarios)

Once again, the Vikings got every break they could ask for over the weekend. Aside from taking care of the Niners, both the Cardinals and Lions lost, and three of the four 5-7 teams that played suffered their eighth loss, the maximum number that could. If the season ended right now, well, the Vikings would be traveling to Seattle to play the Seahawks in the first round. Here's the playoff table, and I'll break down the playoff scenarios after it. I'll post my thoughts on the game, along with the Three Stars this afternoon.

Team	W-L	NFC Record	Division Record	Tie Breakers	NFC Games Left	AFC Games Left
NYG	9-4	7-4	3-2	DET, CHI, PHI	WAS	@ BUF, NE
MIN	7-6	5-5	2-3	NYG	CHI, WAS	@ DEN
DET	6-7	4-7	3-2	CHI	@GB	@ SD, KC
ARZ	6-7	3-6	2-3	DET	@NO, ATL, STL	None
WAS	6-7	4-5	1-3	DET, ARZ, CHI	@NYG, @MIN, DAL	None
NO	5-7	4-4	2-3	None	@ ATL, ARZ, PHI, @CHI	None
CAR	5-8	5-4	2-3	ARZ	SEA, DAL, @TB	None
CHI	5-8	2-7	1-3	PHI	@MIN, GB, NO	None
PHI	5-8	3-7	1-3	DET, MIN	@DAL, @ NO	BUF

Assuming New Orleans' wins tonight (not a big assumption), the Vikings would have a one game lead over the Lions, Cardinals and Saints and a two game lead over the Panthers, Giants and Eagles. There are a few different ways the Vikings can finish:

• The Vikings go 3-0. If the Purple can do that, they're going to the playoffs as the 6 seed, unless the Giants finish 1-2 or 0-3, at which point they'd be the 5 seed.
  

• The Vikings go 2-1 by beating Washington and Chicago, leaving them at 9-7 with a 7-5 conference record and 3-3 divisional record. If this happens, they would need Detroit and New Orleans to lose at least once, since a 9-7 Lions team would win the divisional record tiebreaker with a 4-2 record, and a 9-7 Saints team would win the conference record tiebreaker with an 8-4 NFC record.

• The Vikings go 2-1, dropping a game to either the Redskins or Bears, leaving them at 9-7 with a 6-6 NFC record and 2-4 divisional record. If this happens, they would need Detroit and New Orleans to lose at least once, since a 9-7 Lions team would win the divisional record tiebreaker with a 4-2 record, and a 9-7 Saints team would win the conference record tiebreaker with an 8-4 NFC record. Also, if the loss came to the Redskins, they would need them to lose to either the Giants next week, or to Dallas in Week 17.

• The Vikings go 1-2, with only a victory over the Redskins or Bears, leaving them at 8-8 with a 6-6 NFC record and 2-4 divisional record. If this happens, they would likely need Detroit and New Orleans to lose twice, since an 8-8 Lions team would win the divisional record tiebreaker with a 4-2 record (unless one of those losses was to the Packers in Week 17, at which point the tiebreaker would go to record against common opponents, which has even more possible scenarios) and an 8-8 Saints team would win the conference record tiebreaker with an 7-5 NFC record. They would also need the Panthers and Cardinals to lose another game. Finally, if one of their losses came to the Redskins, they would need them to lose to both the Giants next week and to Dallas in Week 17. If the loss came against the Bears, they would need them to lose to either Green Bay or New Orleans.

• The Vikings go 1-2, with only a victory over the Broncos, leaving them at 8-8 with a 5-7 NFC record and a 2-4 divisional record. If this happens, they would likely need Detroit and New Orleans to lose twice, since an 8-8 Lions team would win the divisional record tiebreaker with a 4-2 record (unless one of those losses was to the Packers in Week 17, at which point the tiebreaker would go to record against common opponents, which has even more possible scenarios) and an 8-8 Saints team would win the conference record tiebreaker with an 7-5 NFC record. They would also need the Panthers, Bears and Cardinals to lose another game. Finally, they would need the Redskins to lose to both the Giants next week and to Dallas in Week 17.
  

• The Vikings go 0-3, leaving them at 7-9 with a 5-7 NFC record and a 2-4 divisional record. If this happens, the Vikings still have an outside shot at the playoffs, but would need so many breaks (I think the only way they could make it involves a three way tie between the Redskins, Vikings and the Cardinals at 7-9, but that might not even be right) that the odds are they wouldn't make it. Let's not think about this one though.
  

Friday Roundup

Thursday's Game
Last night's game between the Redskins and Bears could not have gone any better for the Purple. Chicago's loss dropped them to 5-8 and 2-7 in the conference, all but officially eliminating them from the playoff chase. The Redskins improved to 6-7 and 4-5 in the NFC, but the Vikings will have the opportunity to beat them at the Metrodome, which will be an easier task now that their starting quarterback, Jason Campbell, is likely done for the year with a dislocated knee cap. That means they'll be forced to rely on Todd Collins, who, prior to last night, hadn't seen the field since 2004, or Mark Brunell, who makes Brad Johnson look like a spry, young gunslinger.

Rex Grossman was also hurt, but Chicago has not yet released the severity of his leg injury. To be honest, I'm not sure whether Grossman missing next Sunday's game would help or hurt the Vikings.

The Revolution--Better Than the Big Names
Don't look now, but the Tarvaris Revolution has a better quarterback rating (and DPAR and DVOA) than Vince Young, Alex Smith, Kellen Clemens, Rex Grossman and David Carr. Both Young and Clemens were picked ahead of Tarvaris in the 2006 draft, Grossman lead Chicago to the Super Bowl last year and Smith and Carr were both taken first overall. And I know I wasn't the only one who argued that the Vikings should have acquired Carr to be their starter this year. Shows how much I know.

The Pace the Purple Jesus Needs
In order to break Eric Dickerson's rookie record of 1,808 rushing yards, the Purple Jesus would need to average 153 rushing yards over the last four games of the season. It's a daunting task, but it's in now way outside the realm of possibility, especially considering the Vikings are facing the teams who are ranked 27th (49ers-124 YPG) , 26th (Bears-123.2 YPG), 8th (Redskins-94.8 YPG) and 31st (Broncos-149.1 YPG) in rushing yards per game

Sunday's Pick
Sunday's game against the 49ers is, quite simply, a game the Vikings should win. There are no excuses at all. This isn't a trap game, since the Vikings shouldn't be looking past a team that embarrassed them last year, a loss that probably kept them out of the playoffs. The 49ers are an awful team, on offense and on defense. They're quarterbacked by Trent Dilfer. Their only real threat is running back Frank Gore, and he's only broken 100 yards rushing in a game once, and he needed overtime to do so. Seriously folks--the next time I worry about this team's ability to shut down the run when facing a mediocre to bad quarterback will be the first. The Vikings are the superior team in all aspects of the game and one that's riding a tidal wave of momentum. That's why I'm picking the Vikings in a blowout, 30-10.

If You Even Want to Call It an Offense...

The 49ers offense is one of the most pathetic offenses in the NFL. If it weren't for the fact that they can run the ball (an 8th best 4.2 yards per carry), they would run away with the distinction, because they can't do anything else.

The 49ers cannot:

• Pass the Ball--they are averaging a league worst 3.99 yards per attempt. (The Vikings are averaging 7.02 YPA). And no, it doesn't help that they have Trent Dilfer under center
  

• Protect the Quarterback--they have given up 43 sacks, tied for 30th in the NFL. They are also have a league worst negative pass play percentage of 13.3%, which means that they make every defense look like the best in the league at creating sacks and interceptions. They're also have the second worst adjusted sack rate, at 9.8%.
  

• Protect the Ball--the Niners have thrown 15 interceptions and fumbled the ball 9 times, four of which the other team recovered.

• Establish Good Field Position--with an average kickoff return of 22.4 yards and punt return of 9.3 yards, the 49ers special teams haven't helped their offense out. Maurice Hicks, their kick returner, only has one return for more than 40 yards, and Michael Lewis, their punt returner, only has three, despite have 56 kick returns and 40 punt returns. The Niners have yet to return a kick or punt for a touchdown and Lewis has also fumbled three punts.
  

• Score Points--San Francisco's average of 13.7 points per game is the worst in the NFL. They've scored less than 20 points in ten of their twelve games, only hitting the twenty point mark against against the Cardinals in Week 1 (20 points) and Week 12 (31 points)

For this game, it shouldn't matter that Ray Edwards was suspended four games for steroid use, nor should it matter that his likely replacement, Erasmus James, is battling knee problems. Antoine Winfield should be back and the Vikings defense should dominate a putrid 49ers offense.

In Case You Missed It...

Darren Sharper was on PTI today for Five Good Minutes. It's a solid interview and Sharper talks about Adrian Peterson, the defense and his INT return against the Giants.

Two Disturbing Articles and Who to Back

The Star Tribune ran two articles this morning, both of which left me disturbed, perturbed and generally feeling negative. The first, "Allison shows a big break can be just around the corner", is a nice feature on the Vikings' fifth round pick and newly named Special Teams Player of the Week. It's your normal, run of the mill feature on a player that just had a break out game, until, that is, Coach Childress gets quoted.

"Childress made no promises that Allison will be in uniform this Sunday in San Francisco, although it seems likely. "We just play the guys that you think are going to give you the best chance, and when you get that chance like he did [Sunday], you run with it and he did," said Childress, who also mentioned Allison has the "aptitude" to return punts."

I'm probably reading too much into this, but honestly, why wouldn't Childress make Allison the primary kick returner now? He's a threat to score on every kick, has a massive 37.1 yard average on returns and has returned three kicks for more than 60 yards, a franchise record AND just set the franchise record for longest kick return for a touchdown. Why even screw around with Troy Williamson at this point? I mean, it's not like Williamson and his 13 catches for 201 yards are really that much better than Allison's 4 catches for 76 yards.

I know Childress is probably just playing his normal games with the press, but let's be honest--it would be an awful decision if Allison isn't returning kicks on Sunday.

The second disturbing article, "Wilf: Stadium needs resolution 'in near future'"discusses the state government's decision not to attempt to address the Vikings' stadium issue this session. Whether or not you think the Vikings should get a taxpayer funded stadium, the longer the issue remains unresolved, the greater the chance the Vikings decide to pack up and move. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but the Viking's lease at the Metrodome is up in 2011, which means that the Vikings can play wherever they want in 2012. Gooood times. Good times.

Enough about a possible depressing future. Let's look at what could be a very positive future. There are six games this week (aside from the Purple's) that can impact the Vikings' playoff hopes. I posted a comprehensive table on Monday with all the information you might need for tiebreakers, so let's delve into the important games themselves.

1. Arizona (6-6) at Seattle (8-4)
   
2. Carolina (5-7) at Jacksonville (8-4)
   
3. New Orleans (5-7) at Atlanta (3-9)
   
4. Dallas (11-1) at Detroit (6-6)
   

In these first four games, it's pretty obvious which team Vikings' fans should be pulling for (they're bolded if you need some help). All four games could be crucial to the Vikings' hopes, as this is the hardest game left on the Cardinals schedule, both New Orleans and Carolina would finish with a better Conference Record than the Vikings should they end up tied and Detroit is almost guaranteed to finish with a better division record than the Purple, as the only game they have left will be against a Green Bay team that will be resting it's starters in Week 17.

1. Chicago (5-7) at Washington (5-7)
2. New York Giants (8-4) at Philadelphia (5-7)

These final two games are quite a bit trickier than the first four. The first game pits two teams the Vikings still have on their schedule, both of which they will most likely have to beat in order to make the playoffs (thus likely ending da Bears and Redskins playoff hopes). If the Vikings do end up dropping one of those games, well, then hopefully that was the one that lost this game, since that would have likely knocked them out of the hunt with an eighth loss. The second game is also tricky, as the Vikings are two games back of the Giants, and a loss, combined with a Vikings win, would put the first Wild Card spot back into play. However, a win by the Eagles would keep them within reach of the Purple, a scary thought, as the Eagles have the tiebreaker, and the sooner teams like the Eagles, Saints and Panthers go away, the better the Vikings' chances of getting into the playoffs. To be honest, it doesn't matter who you pull for in these games, as the outcomes are guaranteed to both help and hurt the Purple.