Killing Time: Hicks, Combine and Tackle Depth

Maurice Hicks:
The Vikings waived Maurice Hicks yesterday, ending what was a failed free agent pick up. Hicks was brought in to improve the Vikings special teams, specifically their return games, even though he hadn't shown the ability to be anything other than a mediocre returner (as I pointed out when he signed). His signing was an example of valuing experience over talent, and it came back to hurt the Vikings, as he had a key fumble on a kickoff return against Tampa Bay, had 9 returns of less than 20 yards and never once returned a kickoff more than 40 yards. For a team built on defense and the running game (i.e., field position), having a good kick returner is important, which is why Hicks' signing was so damaging to the Vikings last year.

The Combine:
The Combine started yesterday, and while it's nowhere important, it can be a useful tool in evaluating draft prospects for the teams that approach it properly. Based on this interview with Rick Speilman, I think the Vikings do it right (h/t ESPN NFC North Blog). They aren't going to give too much weight to the workouts, but they are going to use it as a way to get a handle on the people these draft prospects are. The Vikings have done a good job in the draft since the infamous 2005 draft, and their approach to the Combine has certainly contributed to that.

Tackle Depth:
One of the things that I (along with most Viking's fans) have forgotten about is the impending resolution of the Williams Wall's legal battle over their suspension. Depending on the outcome, the Vikings might be short both of their starting tackles for the first four games of the season. And, even if they aren't suspended, the Williams' backups, Fred Evans and Ellis Wyms, are both free agents this year (although Evans is only a restricted free agent). The Vikings took LaTroy Guion in the fifth round last year to help at tackle, but additional depth would be nice, especially if Guion isn't ready to contribute after spending last year adjusting to the NFL. The National Football Post has a breakdown of the available free agent defensive tackles, and someone like Ryan Boschetti or Grady Jackson would be a welcome addition to the defensive line.

Congrats Antoine (and Kevin, Pat, Adrian, Jared and Steve)

It's the Pro Bowl, and it really doesn't matter if you're snubbed, but congratulations are in order to Kevin Williams, Adrian Peterson and Antoine Winfield for being named as Pro Bowl starters, and to Jared Allen, Pat Williams and Steve Hutchinson for making the team.

And I have to say, the voters got their Vikings right. Winfield has deserved to go for a few years now and its nice to see him finally get the recognition he's earned (and he's really backed up my decision to purchase his jersey after Randy Moss was traded). The Williams and Purple Jesus are obvious choices, as are Allen and Hutchinson. Really, the only other Viking that really deserved to be considered (and this isn't a knock, just a reflection of the high level of play necessary to deserve a Pro Bowl spot) was Chad Greenway and, while he's played really well, especially after the loss of E.J., he'll have ample opportunity to be named to the Pro Bowl in the future.

Goodell's Rebuke, 51 Passes and La Revolucion

Goodell’s Rebuke
Aside from the fact that it means the Williams Wall will be playing the rest of season, the best part of Judge Magneson's decision to extend his injunction until a hearing can be conducted, is that it’s a rebuke of Commissioner Goodell’s dictatorial regime. As has been said by many other people, the way that Goodell has handled disciplinary issues, whether they were drug related, off the field or on the field, has been heavy handed and has hurt the NFL by focusing the scandal hungry media’s attention on the issues, not to mention taken a lot of joy out of the season by denying fans the chance to think only about what’s happening on the field.

The Magic Number
The Vikings’ magic number remains at 2 after the Saints lost to da Bears last night. And, to make it even worse, Pierre Thomas, who I missed out on by one waiver spot, and who I’m facing in the second round of my fantasy playoffs, had a monster game. Just a bad night all around.

The Line Battle
Any doubts about the Vikings’ acquisition of Jared Allen have been laid to rest by his (and the defensive line’s) performance this year. The Purple People Eaters have returned and are the best line in the NFL. They continue to dominate the run, and are second in adjusted line yards, second in stuff rate and second in power success percentage. And the improvement in their pass rush has been more than anyone could ask for, jumping from 28th overall in adjusted sack rate, at 5.5% to 1st overall at 9.0%.

The line will have to continue to play well against the Cardinals for the Vikings to win. The Purple can’t win a shoot out against a passing game like the Cardinals, which means they have to get to Kurt Warner. Warner has a quick release, but when he’s forced to make decisions under pressure, he tends to make bad ones. The Cardinals offensive line is 8th in adjusted sack rate, at 4.1%, and the Vikings will need their front four to get to Warner without any help if their secondary and linebackers are going to have a chance to cover Fitzgerald (2nd in WR DYAR), Boldin (4th in DYAR), Breaston (13th in DYAR), Arrington and Hightower. And considering they’re 29th in adjusted line yards, it’s safe to say that Arizona’s game plan will be like the one the Cardinals used in 2006, when they threw the ball 51 times and ran only 5 times.

Viva La Tarvaris Revolucion
The Cardinals present a particular problem for the Vikings because their strengths match up well against the Vikings’ weaknesses. In particular, on defense, they’re solid against the run (-8.2% DVOA, 8th overall) and weak against the pass (16.3% DVOA, 19th overall). That makes it all the more important that the Tarvaris Jackson that played in the second half against the Lions show up again on Sunday. If he makes his reads, finds the open receiver and keeps the chains moving with accurate passes and his feet like he did while leading three scoring drives against Detroit, the Vikings will win this game. If he forces throws, doesn’t hit his receivers or just turns the ball over like Gus Frerotte has, the Vikings likely won’t have a chance. Even the best defense in the NFL (which the Vikings are actually close to being) isn’t going to stop the Cardinals every time they have the ball—they’re just too explosive. Give them enough opportunities by turning the ball over or going three and out and they will score and score a lot.

The Big Picture
A win on Sunday will guarantee the Vikings their first winning season under Brad Childress and force da Bears to win out to have a chance to win the division. Quite simply, it’s a must win game, especially when you consider that the schedule doesn’t get any easier, with the Falcons and Giants coming to town to close out the season. A win likely means the playoffs. A loss could quite easily be the first of three, and the beginning of the end of the season. So let’s all hope that Jared Allen is able to play and he joins a motivated Williams Wall in the Arizona backfield on Sunday afternoon.

Just Great.

Kevin Williams and Pat Williams both tested positive for performance enhancers. They're appealing, but if they're out for four games, the Vikings' season is over. They would be the second and third Vikings in the last two years to be suspended for performance enhancing drugs.

Specifically, they tested positive for "Water Pills", otherwise known as the diuretic Bumetanide. They can be used for weight loss, or, much more likely in this case, to mask steroid use.

So yeah. That's bad. And it means that this season has just been buzzkill after buzzkill.

Three Stars: The Only Three

Ok. That headline is probably a little over the top. There were definitely more than three defensive players that performed well (thankfully, or the Vikings would have lost). Offensively, there was really only one player who was worth celebrating. You can probably guess who it is, but read on, as I unveil the Three Stars for the game.

Third Star: Jared Allen

Jared Allen earned his first weekly star on Sunday for two reasons. The first is because he scared the Lions so much on the edge that they didn't double team Kevin Williams. Forcing teams to choose between doubling Allen and doubling Williams is one of the reasons why I remain excited about his presence on the team. The other reason why he gets the Third Star? This play:

And yes, I think that Allen getting through the line unblocked and scaring Orlovsky so much he forgot where he was means that Allen should get credit, rather than Orlovsky getting blamed.

Second Star: Bernard Berrian

Any surprise here? Berrian turning a 13 yard pass into an 86 yard touchdown was the biggest play of the game. Without it, the Vikings' lose. It was his second straight game with over 100 yards receiving (he's on pace for over 1100), and he remains the Vikings' only real deep threat. And really, that run after the catch was a thing of beauty--he made three defenders miss (and, following a monster block from, I think, Aundrae Allison) and made the kind of big play the Vikings haven't seen their wide receivers make in a long time. The most impressive part? He's still nursing a knee injury. Think about what he'd be able to do if he was healthy!

First Star: Kevin Williams

Is anyone surprised that the Lions thought it was a good idea to single team Kevin Williams (Is there anything worse than that franchise's decision making)? I think he showed, quite clearly, why real teams don't do that. Well, at least I hope that his eight tackles, one of which was for a loss and one of which was for no gain and his four sacks would convince teams not to single team him (actually, wait...never mind--I hope it doesn't). His plays all came at crucial times too--in one sequence, he stopped Jerome Felton for no gain on 3rd and 1, which forced the Lions to punt. Bernard Berrian then scored on the Vikings next play. Then, when the Lions got the ball back, he stopped Rudi Johnson for a four yard loss on first down and sacked Orlovsky on 3rd down, almost single handedly ending that drive. He also sacked Orlovsky on a 3rd and 4 in Vikings' territory in the fourth quarter and then ended any chance of the Lions completing a fluke Hail Mary by bringing down Orlovsky on the final play. The man, quite simply, was a BEAST. And that's why he's the First Star this week.

First Place

Ladies and Gentlemen--your first place Minnesota Vikings!

That was ugly. U-G-L-Y. Kevin Williams is unbelievable. Bernard Berrian was a great signing. And I'm seriously trying to decide if I'd rather have the Vikings miss the playoffs if it means they get a new coach. But the Falcons win means that the Purple are tied for first with the Bears.

More on the game later today and tomorrow. Then I'm moving on, because a 12-10 win over this Lions team is pathetic, but it could be worse, because the Lions aren't the worst team in the league and because the Lions didn't win.

Three Stars: First Victory

This post is a lot harder to write after a win. But you know what? I can't say I mind too much. The Vikings first win featured, as all wins do, many outstanding individual performances, especially on the defensive side of the ball. And in a game in which Steve Smith was expected to destroy the Vikings and the Panthers' offense, particularly their running game, had been so successful even without Smith, it was only fitting that all three stars go to defensive players.

So while Adrian Peterson averaged over 4.5 yards per carry on a bad hamstring, he's not going to crack the top three players this week. The same goes for Bernard Berrian, who lead the Vikings in receiving, caught his first deep pass and looked like the deep threat he was supposed to be. Berrian fails to crack the top three because his inability to haul in a deep pass led to the Vikings' only turnover. And while Gus Frerrotte calmed the offense down in the second half and he was the first Viking to crack 200 yards passing, his performance wasn't anything special (except in comparison with Tarvaris' first two games). He still missed open recievers, took three sacks and generally put together an average game. With the defense dominating in the way it did, it was enough to win. It wasn't enough to crack the Three Stars though.

Third Star: Kevin Williams

The lighter of the two Williams had another dominating game, racking up six tackles while helping keep the Panthers and their running game under 50 yards for the game. He also had two crucial sacks while keeping Jake Delhomme under constant pressure. Both sacks came when it mattered, as his first came on final drive of the first half and his second came on 4th and 27 with under 3 minutes to go in the game and basically ended whatever hope the Panthers might have had of coming back.

Second Star: E.J. Henderson

Twelve tackles, three for a loss, one quarterback hurry and one flying, highlight reel tackle. Just another game for one of the best middle linebackers in the game and the leader of the best run stopping defense in the game. What else can you say, except that, in a defense full of playmakers, E.J. Henderson has moved his way to the top of the list of Vikings defenders worth paying to see?

First Star: Antoine Winfield

There's no question that the biggest play of the game was Antoine Winfield's blitz that forced a Jake Delholmme fumble that Winfield returned for a touchdown. Steve Smith was open on the play, Delholmme knew it, Smith knew it, and who knows what might have happened if Winfield hadn't gotten to Delholmme? The best case scenario would have had the Vikings' going into the locker down a touchdown. The worst case scenario would have had them down two touchdowns and staring at a loss likely to end their playoff hopes. Because of Winfield, however, the Vikings' didn't have to worry about the various scenarios that might have played out if Delholmme had gotten the pass off. Instead they went into the locker room tied, with all of the momentum going their way. And the capitalized on that momentum, holding the Panthers scoreless in the second half and giving the offense a chance, which they capitalized on, to take the lead on the first drive of the second half. Without Winfield's play, none of that happens. Really, without Winfield's play, the Vikings' fall to 3-0. And that's why Winfield's the First Star this week.

Three Stars and Some Links

Ok, so I promised that I'd have these up Monday Afternoon, but, well, I'm still waiting on a new computer (my personal one is broken) and I got swamped at work. That doesn't mean there weren't stars of the game, though! Oh no, don't you worry. We're going to have a consensus MVP this year even if it kills us (and no, I don't think that crowning the Purple Jesus as MVP will kill us). So let's take a look at the three Vikings that turned in the best performances against the Niners. Without them, who knows if the Purple would have done something they'd never done in their 707 regular season game, by winning their third straight game by at least twenty points.

Third Star: Kevin Williams

Kevin Williams' impact on the game can be almost completely described by describing one play. Aside from his interception return for a touchdown, however, he only assisted on one tackle. Of course, Kevin Williams impacts the play even if he isn't making tackles or sacking the quarterback. And he really impacts the play when he makes the fourth interception of his career and returns it for a touchdown, the fourth of his career, effectively ending the game on the 49ers first real play from scrimmage.

2nd Star: Chester Taylor

On a day when Adrian Peterson was held to 2 yards and 14 carries, Taylor rushed for 101 yards, most of which came on an 83 yard touchdown run, the longest by any back so far this season. He has 716 yards so far on the season, and could join Peterson in the 1,000 yard club if he can average 95 yards a game over the final three games of the season. He's been averaging 70.8 yards per game since his return from injury, so it's not outside of the realm of possibility, especially if he breaks off a few more runs like his 84 yarder.

1st Star: Pat Williams

Did you know, that, after handing out 12 weeks worth of stars, Pat Williams has only managed to be recognized once? He was the 2nd Star against the Raiders, accumulating 9 tackles and helping hold Oakland's rushing attack to only 2.26 yards per carry on 27 carries. I can't help but think that I've somehow overlooked the man who might be the most important player on the Vikings' vaunted run defense. That's not an issue this week, however, as it's not possible to overlook someone who had five tackles, a sack (thankfully for Trent Dilfer's health, Big Pat got him with an arm tackle instead of using his full weight) and an interception. Sadly, he didn't get a chance to show off the open field skills he was bragging about to the announcers before the game.

Links

• Gonzo from the Daily Norseman is ecstatic about da Bears starting Kyle Orton. As am I. As am I. (Special thanks to Deadspin for all of the pictures).

• Grant's Tomb and Vikes Geek both tried to explain why the Vikings had so much trouble running against a pretty poor Niners run defense. Personally, I think it had a lot to do with the Niners blitzing a lot on first and second down, which would explain why Peterson and Taylor were tackled for losses seven different times, with Peterson going down behind the backfield six times. It seemed that every time Peterson was in during a running situation, the Niners brought the house. If there's one thing that Childress needs to spend the week on, it's figuring out how to adjust to that strategy, because it will almost certainly be emulated from here on out.
  

• Football Outsiders has the Vikings with a 65.9% chance of making the playoffs. Sports Club Stats has them with a 43% chance. Neither site has any of the teams trailing the Vikings in the Wild Card race with odds that high. In fact, only the Saints have a better than 1 in 5 chance, as Football Outsiders and Sports Club Stats have them at 23.3% and 20.1% respectively.
  

• A nice little satire piece: "Vikings fined for having Adrian Peterson wear Chester Taylor's uniform". It would have worked better if Taylor's 84 yard run on Sunday wasn't the longest in the NFL so far this year and his 95 yard run against Seattle wasn't the longest run last year.
  
  

3 Stars of the Win Over the Falcons

The last two years, I've tried (under two different names) to pick an MVP for the season by picking players of the game after each win. It didn't really work too well. So, since I'm a stubborn fellow, I'm going to try it again, but I'm going to continue tinkering with the concept. This time, I'm going to take a page out of the NHL's proverbially book and award three stars after each game, not just after each wins (six wins were not enough last year).

Thankfully, that part about doing it after each game doesn't matter right now, because the Vikings are 1-0 after demolishing the Falcons. And there are quite a few players that deserve to be honored for their play. The Tarvaris Revolution got off to a solid, controlled start, completing 13 of his 23 passes for 163 yards while avoiding numerous sacks, including a ridiculous play where he stiffed armed a Falcon and then managed to stay upright long enough to throw the ball over his head, out of bounds. Antoine Winfield had five tackles and returned an interception for a touchdown to squash whatever hope the Falcons had left. And there was Keneci Udeze, who ended his streak of 18 sackless games as time expired, a sack celebrated by the Vikings like it had clinched the Super Bowl (Seriously--he was mobbed. I'm pretty sure the defensive line coach jumped on him).

However, those three didn't contribute quite enough. So, without further ado, the three stars:

3rd Star: E.J. Henderson

E.J. led the Vikings with seven tackles, six unassisted. He also tied for the lead with two sacks, dragging down Joey Harrington like sacking the quarterback was something defenses were supposed to do. In case you were wondering, he's only one sack shy of his career high for a season--he had three last year. Most importantly, however, he dominated in his return to the middle, leading a defense that held the Falcons to 96 rushing yards and 139 passing yards.

2nd Star: Kevin Williams

Sometimes, you need to get a little lucky to a make a play. Other times, you need to drop into "coverage" because you weren't ready for a quick snap count and consequently couldn't rush. However, strokes of luck like that usually take a large toll on you, something Kevin Williams found out when he was forced to sprint 54 yards as a punishment for not being ready. Of course, he probably didn't mind too much, seeing as how he had the football with him and he got to get the Vikings out to an early lead.

1st Star: Adrian "Purple Jesus" Peterson

Adrian Peterson turned in two nominees for the play of the game. The obvious one was his sixty yard sprint to the endzone, a play that demonstrated both his breakaway speed and his ability to stay focused, seeing as how he bobbled the pass a few times before hauling it in and heading for the end zone. The play that might have been more important, however, was his fumble recovery near the end of the first half, when Matt Birk snapped a sharp ground ball past Tarvaris Jackson. While Tarvaris had a shot at it, as he was attempting to beat three Falcons to the ball, it seemed like he was the only one in Purple who did. And if even one of the multiple defenders in white had managed to get a hold of the ball, it would have been an easy seven points. That's when the Purple Jesus stepped in, coming out of nowhere to fall on the ball and save the Vikings seven points, and, quite possibly, the game. Those kinds of instincts can't be taught. And neither can the kind that get you 103 yards on 19 carries (5.42 yards per carry!). It's not every day a player dominates the game while also making a play that saves his team from disaster. Adrian Peterson did today, not all that surprisingly, considering he's the Purple Jesus and it's why he's the 1st Star of the game.