Thoughts on QB #4's Debut (and the Vikings)

I watched the NFL Network replay of the first half of the DEBUT OF QB #4 (I've decided, for my own sanity, to only refer to him as QB #4, kind of like how NCAA video games work, or how NBA video games never had Michael Jordan, but always had #23 on the Bulls). I do have to say, it got me excited for the season. And not because QB #4 looked like a guy whose first NFL workout (and practice) was on Tuesday. Luckily, he has lots of time before the season starts (Oh wait). A few other thoughts:

• The pass rush looked dominant today. Which is especially amazing because neither Pat Williams or Jared Allen suited up. Fred Evans had a couple of plays where he just pushed the Chiefs center into Cassel, and Robison and Edwards both did a good job on the edge. Defensive line depth is a huge part of a successful defense, and it looks like the Vikings are deep in the front four. Sweet.

• E.J. Henderson looks like the stud I remember and Chad Greenway matched him play for play. They paired up to force a field goal in the first quarter with two great plays in the first quarter. On 1st Down, the Chiefs handed off to Larry Johnson going off tackle. E.J. shed a block in the middle of the field and closed (and when I say "closed", I mean he he beat LJ to the spot he was going) to meet Johnson at the line of scrimmage for no gain. After a 9 yard gain on a pass play, Greenway slipped through the line (and I rewound the play three times and still didn't see the line in the hole he got through) and stuffed LJ for no gain on 3rd and 1, forcing the Chiefs to kick a field goal. Let's see here. Stud defensive linemen. Quality depth behind the studs. And Stud Linebackers? The Vikings are going to be fun to watch on defensive this year.

• Percy Harvin looks like he's going to be dangerous. I'm not sure if he's going to be, but he really looks like he can be. Harvin is Purple Jesus fast. And he had a nice catch with two Chiefs draped all over him for QB #4's only completion. If Harvin turns out to be as dangerous as he looks, the offense could be one of the best in the NFL, assuming the quarterback play is up to par.

• Tarvaris Jackson had good stats, but most of them came after the Chiefs' first teamers came out. He threw off his back foot under pressure, made a horrible decision to throw a pass 4 yards past the line of scrimmage despite having lots of room to run and generally looked a lot like the Tarvaris Jackson from last year--good enough to allow the Vikings to win games, but not in the playoffs.

• Naufahu Tahi is awful. He can't block (he missed a block on the Chief that tackled Peterson on 4th and 1 on the Vikings' first drive), he can't run routes (it was as much his fault as QB #4's that the Vikings' first pass play was an incompletion) and even if he does catch the ball, he's not going to get any yards after the catch. I can't believe the Vikings can't find a better fullback then him, because he's not an NFL caliber player.

Killing Time: Lions Week!

It's Lions Week now! You know what that means--the Vikings get to play one of the worst teams in the NFL! Whooooooooooooo!!!!

Yes, I'm excited for the Lions to turn the ball over 5 times, let Adrian Peterson run for 150 yards and for the Vikings to get back to .500. How about you? While we're waiting for the inevitable blowout, let's see what's going on around these here internets.

• Antoine Winfield--Defensive Player of the Week. Winfield has unquestionably been the Vikings' Defensive MVP so far this year and it's not unreasonable to believe he's the overall MVP either. That snow storm that kept Winfield here until he signed was a God send--I hope it gets a bonus at some point. Jon Kitna and Kevin Seifert agree--Winfield is one of the best cornerbacks in the league (buying his jersey was definitely one my best decisions).
  

• It's all the more important that Winfield continue to play like this, now that E.J. Henderson is out for the season. Kevin Seifert has a short, but good piece on how important E.J. Henderson is to the Purple's defense. He's right--E.J. Henderson might have been the best player on the defense, which says a lot when you consider that defense includes the Williams, Antoine Winfield and Jared Allen. Ben Leber and Chad Greenway are going to have to step up, or the defense is going to run into some serious problems.
  

• According to Football Outsiders, the Vikings have a 25.3% chance of making the playoffs this year, up from 24.0% before Monday night's game. History tells us that 19.4% of 2-3 teams have made the playoffs in a 17 week season, but that doesn't factor in talent, performance or the remaining schedule. History also tells us that if the Vikings beat the Lions, they'll have a 40.0% chance of making the playoffs, but if they lose to the Lions, they'll only have a 8.7% chance of making it. That last number, of course, does not factor in the likely improvement Leslie Frazier would bring as head coach.

• Speaking of stats, Smarter Statistics argues for the use of advanced statistics in the NFL.

• Advanced NFL Stats has the Win Probability graph from Monday night's game. Unsurprisingly, it looks like a cardiograph.
  

An Injury and the Implications

One of the things that the Saints do well is exploit Reggie Bush's ability to make things happen in space. Drew Brees has thrown Bush the ball forty times already this year and he's turned those passes into big plays, averaging 8.3 yards per catch and leading running backs in receiving DYAR and Effective Yards while racking up 257 yards and two touchdowns on 31 receptions.

The Vikings as a team, however, are normally well situated to shut down those passes. When a team has fast, sure tackling linebackers like Chad Greenway and E.J. Henderson and are able to get pressure without blitzing (which the Vikings kind of do), it's no surprise to see that they have a -6.1% DVOA against running backs in the passing game.

As I said, normally, I wouldn't worry too much about the Vikings' linebackers ability to shut down Reggie Bush, and, quite possibly, the rest of the Saints' offense with him. But that was before E.J. Henderson was unable to practice today due to his dislocated toes. Without Henderson, the Vikings are down to one Pro Bowl caliber linebacker in Greenway. He's been very good this year (remember, he's 5th in the NFL in tackles this year), but he'll be the only one on the field that can match up with Bush, making it that much harder to ensure the Vikings get the match up with Bush that they want. With Henderson on the field, it provided the margin of error that any good defense needs in play calling. Now, it's just that much easier for the Saints to get the match up they want, which means it's that much easier Reggie Bush to break that big play the Vikings need to avoid if they want to win. And at 1-3, the last thing the Vikings want is something making it easier for their opponents to win.

Three Stars: First Victory

This post is a lot harder to write after a win. But you know what? I can't say I mind too much. The Vikings first win featured, as all wins do, many outstanding individual performances, especially on the defensive side of the ball. And in a game in which Steve Smith was expected to destroy the Vikings and the Panthers' offense, particularly their running game, had been so successful even without Smith, it was only fitting that all three stars go to defensive players.

So while Adrian Peterson averaged over 4.5 yards per carry on a bad hamstring, he's not going to crack the top three players this week. The same goes for Bernard Berrian, who lead the Vikings in receiving, caught his first deep pass and looked like the deep threat he was supposed to be. Berrian fails to crack the top three because his inability to haul in a deep pass led to the Vikings' only turnover. And while Gus Frerrotte calmed the offense down in the second half and he was the first Viking to crack 200 yards passing, his performance wasn't anything special (except in comparison with Tarvaris' first two games). He still missed open recievers, took three sacks and generally put together an average game. With the defense dominating in the way it did, it was enough to win. It wasn't enough to crack the Three Stars though.

Third Star: Kevin Williams

The lighter of the two Williams had another dominating game, racking up six tackles while helping keep the Panthers and their running game under 50 yards for the game. He also had two crucial sacks while keeping Jake Delhomme under constant pressure. Both sacks came when it mattered, as his first came on final drive of the first half and his second came on 4th and 27 with under 3 minutes to go in the game and basically ended whatever hope the Panthers might have had of coming back.

Second Star: E.J. Henderson

Twelve tackles, three for a loss, one quarterback hurry and one flying, highlight reel tackle. Just another game for one of the best middle linebackers in the game and the leader of the best run stopping defense in the game. What else can you say, except that, in a defense full of playmakers, E.J. Henderson has moved his way to the top of the list of Vikings defenders worth paying to see?

First Star: Antoine Winfield

There's no question that the biggest play of the game was Antoine Winfield's blitz that forced a Jake Delholmme fumble that Winfield returned for a touchdown. Steve Smith was open on the play, Delholmme knew it, Smith knew it, and who knows what might have happened if Winfield hadn't gotten to Delholmme? The best case scenario would have had the Vikings' going into the locker down a touchdown. The worst case scenario would have had them down two touchdowns and staring at a loss likely to end their playoff hopes. Because of Winfield, however, the Vikings' didn't have to worry about the various scenarios that might have played out if Delholmme had gotten the pass off. Instead they went into the locker room tied, with all of the momentum going their way. And the capitalized on that momentum, holding the Panthers scoreless in the second half and giving the offense a chance, which they capitalized on, to take the lead on the first drive of the second half. Without Winfield's play, none of that happens. Really, without Winfield's play, the Vikings' fall to 3-0. And that's why Winfield's the First Star this week.

Three Stars: 0-2

As I said last time, I try and stay positive no matter what. Or at least lead with the positive. I'm as mad/depressed/want Childress' head as anybody right now, but there's way to much rancor here on the internet. That and I want to consolidate my negativity into one post. It's easier on the heart that way. So, without further ado, the Three Stars of the Game.

Third Star: Jared Allen

He said he would get better and he did. After a no show in the season opener, Allen showed up against Peyton Manning, notching one sack, two hurries and generally making Manning's life miserable. This was very much the guy that the Vikings traded for and the Colts troubles offensively can be traced to the fact that the defensive was in Manning's face all game. Oh, and don't look now, but Allen's ahead of his sack pace from last year, when he didn't have a sack in the first two games. (Heh.)

Second Star: E. J. Henderson

Why wasn't E. J. a Pro Bowler again? He was all over the field on Sunday, notching six tackles, three tackles for a loss, one sack and a hurry. He also lead a defense that held the Colts scoreless in the first half (the first time since October 8th, 2006 that Indy failed to score before halftime) and one that shut down the Colts running game so effectively that they only gained 25 yards on 19 carries and got called out by their quarterback. Joseph Addai, who averaged 4.1 yards per carry last year, only had three carries where he gained more than four yards. Not a bad day for a middle linebacker, that's for sure.

1st Star: Adrian Peterson

Once again, Peterson showed why he's the best running back in the NFL. After a 29 carry, 160 yard effort, he's leading the league in rushing, is off to the second best start statistically by a Viking back (only Robert Smith in 1998 had more yards after two games and I'd have to say he had a little more help from his passing game. Only a little bit though) and he's generally looking like the Adrian Peterson everyone expected. He gained at least 4 yards on 19 of his carries and picked up five first downs. He also out rushed the Vikings' passing game. Just think about what he could have done if the Colts weren't able to bring noted run stopper Bob Sanders up in the box on every play.

Three Stars--Maturing before our eyes

Last night's game was a tale of two halves and of two units. In the first half, the Vikings offense played like the young team they are, making silly mistakes. In the second half, aside from the one interception Tarvaris threw, the Vikings offense played a lot more like the playoff team they might be, scoring two touchdowns and racking up 183 yards of offense.

On the other side of the ball, the Vikings defense played like the veteran, playoff caliber unit they are, holding the Bears to 32 yards on 17 carries (an average of 1.9 YPC) and holding Kyle Orton to only 184 yards on 38 passing attempts. Not to mention Darren Sharper's interception, which sealed the game with under two minutes to go. The defense didn't succumb to the pressure of the national lights and they didn't get too "amped up" like the offense. Rather, they dominated an offense they should have dominated, shutting them out in the second half and only allowing one drive longer than 14 yards in the first half (and that 35 yard drive by the Bears ended in a punt).

We also saw a special teams unit shut down the best returner in the game, as Devin Hester was held to a 14 yard average on kick returns and 7 yards on punt returns, and his longest return was only 17 yards. Of course, we got to hear Tirico, Jaws and Kornheiser scream hysterically every time a kickoff or punt came near Hester. It was so annoying (especially on kickoffs--I mean, what are the Vikings supposed to do? Kick it out of bounds?) that it actually negated the best analysis I've heard out of an announcing crew in a long time, when the three of them discussed the Vikings' pass defense. All three agreed that the fact the Vikings are last in passing yards allowed was misleading, with Kornheiser pointing out that it hadn't translated into points allowed and Jaws mentioning that opponents yards per passing attempt was quite low, something we saw on the field, as the Bears averaged a paltry 4.5 yards per pass attempt.

And it was that defense that won the game for the Purple and that will be reflected in Three Stars this week. While Adrian Peterson's two touchdowns and 78 yards rushing were important, it was his fumble that short circuited what should have been a scoring drive. And while Bobby Wade continues to show why he'll be a great third receiver next year (here's hoping the Purple can sign a real #1 to teach Sidney Rice and take the pressure off of Wade), his six catches for 70 yards wasn't the dominating performance that one would like to see out of the leading pass catcher on the team, nor was Robert Ferguson's 71 yard reception enough to make up for coughing up a pass for Brian Urlacher to intercept (though I would probably reconsider if he'd run at full speed the entire way, rather than slowing up so he could be tackled).

But enough about the Vikings offense. Let's talk about the real Three Stars, all of which come from the defense:

Third Star: Darren Sharper

With the game very much in doubt (something one score games will always be to me, thanks to the Vikings pass defense from 2000-2005), the Bears line gave Kyle Orton some time, leading to him chucking a deep pass to an open Bernard Berrian. Thankfully, Kyle Orton has the accuracy of a drunk (probably because he is a drunk). And thankfully, Darren Sharper was there to pick the pass off and put the game away. There's a very good possibility that Darren Sharper was at least as good a signing as Pat Williams in 2005, which says a lot about Sharper has accomplished for the Purple.

Second Star: Pat Williams

1.9 yards on 17 carries. The Bears were not a great rushing team coming into the game, averaging only 3.18 yards per carry, but that doesn't diminish how dominant a rush defense has to be to hold an offense to 1.9 yards a carry. And the credit should go to the big man in the middle. Pat Williams lead all of the Vikings' defensive linemen with four tackles and he once again dominated Pro Bowler Olin Kruetz.

First Star: E.J. Henderson

He might not get invited to the Pro Bowl, but E.J. Henderson has certainly been playing like one. He was all over the field last night, racking up a team high seven tackles, all of them unassisted. He brought down everyone on the Bears, from Greg Olson to Garrett Wolfe to Adrian Peterson. He knocked down Kyle Orton multiple times and knocked down his passes. Quite simply, he played the way that announcers think Brian Urlacher plays. And aside from the Williams, there is no player who can claim as much credit for the Bears 1.9 yards per carry.

Three Stars: Yup, I'm Still Doing It

After I took an unplanned week off (sometimes, work just takes over), the Vikings responded by losing a game against a very beatable team, which most likely ended any realistic hope of their finishing .500, let alone making the playoffs. Just like after the last seven games, however, it's important for us to congratulate those players who turned in quality performances for the Purple. And, even in the loss, there were quite a few.

• Brooks Bollinger, the Vikings third string quarterback turned in a quality performance in relief of Kelly Holcombe, after Holcombe got to find out what Deacon Jones Helmet Slap felt like prior to having his head driven into the turf. When Bollinger came out throwing, I was openly questioning Brad Childress' play calling. When Bollinger completed his first three throws for thirty yards, I was less skeptical. Bollinger never got the Vikings in the endzone, and he was sacked twice, but he also completed seven of ten passes for 96 yards and rushed for 15 yards on two carries. They weren't amazing stats, but they were pretty solid.

• The Purple Jesus doesn't make the three stars this week, for the first time this season. It might be a matter of expectations being too high for him, but Adrian Peterson was good, but not great, rushing for 70 yards on 20 carries. He also made an awful mistake on the opening kick of the second half that practically guaranteed the Vikings would not be able to do anything with the drive. That being said, he still turned in some plays that defy description--I have never, and I mean never, seen a running back HURDLE the line and then hit the ground running.

• Both Keneci Udeze and Ben Leber both turned in crucial sacks in the second half, sacks that helped force the Eagles two punts before they started running to kill time. The only other time the Eagles punted also included pressure on McNabb. That's not a coincidence folks.

3rd Star: Ryan Longwell

Yeah, he's the kicker. He was also responsible for 62.5% of the Vikings points. Without him, the Vikings don't keep within striking distance of the Eagles. And while two of his kicks were only a little more than 30 yarders, his final field goal was a 48 yarder, which isn't a chip shot in anyway. And, if the Vikings are going to make him such an important part of their offense, then I'm going to reward him with a spot in the three stars.

2nd Star: Visanthe Shiancoe

Shiancoe set a career high for receptions today, catching five passes for fifty yards (his second highest total), including two big first downs. He also hauled in the Vikings only touchdown pass, which ties him for second on the team in touchdowns (lets not talk about the fact that Adrian Peterson is the only Viking with more than one touchdown). Today was the day that the Shiancoe showed off the receiving skills that led to the Vikings signing him for 5 years and $18.2 million. If he can continue to have this kind of an impact on games, he'll be a bargain.

1st Star: E.J. Henderson

E.J. Henderson is one of the best middle linebackers in the NFL. He's also one of the hardest hitters. His performance today was just another example of why those first two statements are correct. He racked up ten tackles, second only to Antoine Winfield's eleven, and was a huge reason why the Eagles were held to only 62 rushing yards on 25 carries. Bryant Westbrook rushed for a paltry 46 yards on 21 carries. Prior to this week, Westbrook had the 8th best success rate amongst NFL running backs and the 4th best DVOA. Both of those stats deal with how good a back is on a per carry basis. Westbrook is going to see his stats drop after this week and E.J. Henderson is the biggest reason why.

3 Stars of the Win Over the Falcons

The last two years, I've tried (under two different names) to pick an MVP for the season by picking players of the game after each win. It didn't really work too well. So, since I'm a stubborn fellow, I'm going to try it again, but I'm going to continue tinkering with the concept. This time, I'm going to take a page out of the NHL's proverbially book and award three stars after each game, not just after each wins (six wins were not enough last year).

Thankfully, that part about doing it after each game doesn't matter right now, because the Vikings are 1-0 after demolishing the Falcons. And there are quite a few players that deserve to be honored for their play. The Tarvaris Revolution got off to a solid, controlled start, completing 13 of his 23 passes for 163 yards while avoiding numerous sacks, including a ridiculous play where he stiffed armed a Falcon and then managed to stay upright long enough to throw the ball over his head, out of bounds. Antoine Winfield had five tackles and returned an interception for a touchdown to squash whatever hope the Falcons had left. And there was Keneci Udeze, who ended his streak of 18 sackless games as time expired, a sack celebrated by the Vikings like it had clinched the Super Bowl (Seriously--he was mobbed. I'm pretty sure the defensive line coach jumped on him).

However, those three didn't contribute quite enough. So, without further ado, the three stars:

3rd Star: E.J. Henderson

E.J. led the Vikings with seven tackles, six unassisted. He also tied for the lead with two sacks, dragging down Joey Harrington like sacking the quarterback was something defenses were supposed to do. In case you were wondering, he's only one sack shy of his career high for a season--he had three last year. Most importantly, however, he dominated in his return to the middle, leading a defense that held the Falcons to 96 rushing yards and 139 passing yards.

2nd Star: Kevin Williams

Sometimes, you need to get a little lucky to a make a play. Other times, you need to drop into "coverage" because you weren't ready for a quick snap count and consequently couldn't rush. However, strokes of luck like that usually take a large toll on you, something Kevin Williams found out when he was forced to sprint 54 yards as a punishment for not being ready. Of course, he probably didn't mind too much, seeing as how he had the football with him and he got to get the Vikings out to an early lead.

1st Star: Adrian "Purple Jesus" Peterson

Adrian Peterson turned in two nominees for the play of the game. The obvious one was his sixty yard sprint to the endzone, a play that demonstrated both his breakaway speed and his ability to stay focused, seeing as how he bobbled the pass a few times before hauling it in and heading for the end zone. The play that might have been more important, however, was his fumble recovery near the end of the first half, when Matt Birk snapped a sharp ground ball past Tarvaris Jackson. While Tarvaris had a shot at it, as he was attempting to beat three Falcons to the ball, it seemed like he was the only one in Purple who did. And if even one of the multiple defenders in white had managed to get a hold of the ball, it would have been an easy seven points. That's when the Purple Jesus stepped in, coming out of nowhere to fall on the ball and save the Vikings seven points, and, quite possibly, the game. Those kinds of instincts can't be taught. And neither can the kind that get you 103 yards on 19 carries (5.42 yards per carry!). It's not every day a player dominates the game while also making a play that saves his team from disaster. Adrian Peterson did today, not all that surprisingly, considering he's the Purple Jesus and it's why he's the 1st Star of the game.