Solving Our Problems: Madieu Williams

[Solving Our Problems is an ongoing series here at the Ragnarok where I evaluate the Vikings' options going into the offseason. I started by looking at the quarterback options, examining Derek Anderson, Donovan McNabb and possible backups for Tarvaris Jackson. I've tried to figure out who the QB is going to throw to, starting with free agent Bernard Berrian and Donte Stallworth, but I'm going to take a detour and take a look at a safety the Vikings might sign, Madieu Williams]

The Star Tribune had an article today about the Vikings' possible targets in free agency, and it's a positive one, because the Vikings are going to go after top talent. According to the article, the Vikings top three targets are wide receiver Bernard Berrian, defensive end Justin Smith and safety Madieu Williams. I covered why the Vikings should try and sign Berrian earlier, and Grant's Tomb took a look at the possibilities in the free agent market at defensive end, which I agree with, because I don't think the Vikings are going to spend big money on a pass rusher, because the talent isn't there. Aside from Smith, who struggled in his free agency year, there really aren't any game changing talents. That, combined with the fact that the draft has some quality talent at the position, makes me think that the Purple will spend their $30 million to fill other gaps, mainly wide receiver and safety. And, with Dwight Smith signing with the Lions, the Purple have to find a player to pair with Darren Sharper, and Madieu Williams is their top target.

Williams has spent his four years playing for the Bengals, but you shouldn't let that scare you. He's a talented safety, and is known off the field for his charity work (you thought I was going to say "legal troubles", didn't you? Well, he's not that kind of Bengal). And unlike Smith, his talents lie in coverage, not run support. As Football Prospectus 2007 put it, "Williams in particular is excellent in coverage and can help cover the deficiencies of the corners."

The information in the following table was taken from Football Prospectus 2007, so the stats are from 2006. I don't have access to the stats from last season yet. However, based on what I've read about Williams, he played about as well in 2007 as he did in 2006. And based on watching Smith, I think he preformed about as well this year as he did last year. So I believe that the information below is still relevant in comparing the two.

The first two statistics deal with the safeties ability to stop the run. RuYd shows where the player normally tackled a runner past the line of scrimmage and RuStp deals with the percentage of run plays in which the player was involved in stopping. The second two statistics deal with stopping the pass. Suc% is the percentage of plays targeting a player on which the offense did not have a successful play. "This means not only incomplete passes and interceptions but also short completions that do not meet our baselines for success (45 percent of needed yards on 1^st down, 60 percent on 2^nd down, 100 percent on 3^rd or 4^th down)". PD is passes defensed, which is a counting stat that includes any time a player knocked down a pass or intercepted it. Where the player ranks out of all NFL defensive backs in the first three statistics is also included.

	RuYd	Rank	RuStp	Rank	Suc%	Rank	PD
Madieu Williams	8	62nd	43%	39th	69%	3rd	10
Dwight Smith	4.6	10th	55%	13th	43%	64th	7

As you can see, Williams is nowhere near the run stopper that Smith is and Smith is nowhere near as good at coverage as Williams is, except when he comes to intercepting passes, as Smith has averaged 3.25 picks over the last four years, while Williams has averaged only 2.25 picks over the same time period. One extra interception a year isn't that big a loss, however, when you consider that Williams was almost 25% more successful at stopping plays targeting him.

While replacing Smith with Williams would likely hurt the Vikings' run defense, adding a safety with Williams' coverage ability would be a huge gain for the Vikings' pass defense. Williams and Sharper (his Suc% was also 69%) would likely make up the best pair of coverage safeties in the NFL, which would more than offset whatever damage it would do to the Vikings' run defense. And, the Vikings' can afford losing some of their ability at stopping the run if it means improving their mediocre pass defense, especially at a position that isn't as vital to run defense. Signing Williams would accomplish that, and in today's NFL, being able to stop the pass is of vital importance.

Tuesday Roundup

A lot has happened since my last post, but the biggest thing is definitely the Vikings trade of Troy Williamson to the Jaguars. The Purple will receive a sixth round pick for the fourth year receiver, and put a final end to one of the worst trades in NFL history (luckily for the Purple, it wasn't the worst...that would be the Herschel Walker trade. Ugh).

This trade brings to mind one of the many things that I'll never understand about Vikings' fans. I understand those who want Brad Childress fired. I disagree (for now), but I can see where they're coming from. What I don't understand is why people would want Mike Tice back. He took over a team with two offensive stars, but was never able to do anything with them, or provide them with any kind of support and then turned them into nothing. I understand that a lot of that can and should be blamed on Red McCombs and the personnel staff, however, in the end, the Vikings had Daunte Culpepper in his prime (and it was a beautiful prime) and Randy Moss and turned them into two years of Napolean Harris, three years of Troy Williamson and Ryan Cook, who is at best an average right tackle. Maybe that isn't Tice's fault, but I can't think of anything else when I think of him.

On a happier note, there is the outside possibility that the Vikings will be able to turn that sixth rounder into a useful player. Derek Anderson, Arnez Battle and David Tyree will all taken in the sixth round, as were Vikings Matt Birk and Robert Tate and former Vikings tight end Andrew Jordan.

Bernard Berrian:
I'll be looking at D.J Hackett and Donte Stallworth in the next few days, but I've already done the research on them, and I still believe that Berrian is the best receiver on the market. And he's going to be an unrestricted free agent on February 29th, because da Bears didn't place a franchise tag on him. The Vikings have $30 million in cap room, and they should use as much as necessary to bring in Berrian.

Bryant McKinnie
Because it wouldn't be the Vikings without some kind of really stupid off the field behavior, Bryant McKinnie was arrested over the weekend for getting in a fight outside of a club. He tried to escape via bus (Quick! To the Escape Bus!), but that obviously didn't work, and he has a court date set for March 17th, where he's being charged with aggravated battery (a felony) and two misdemeanors. That's not good. Even if he doesn't gets jail time, Access Vikings pointed out that it might not matter to Commissioner Goodell, since this is McKinnie's second violation of the NFL Conduct Policy. Whatever your thoughts on Mount McKinnie, the Vikings can't afford to lose their starting left tackle, especially if he gets hit with a long suspension. Tarvaris has not shown the ability to deal with pressure well, which he's guaranteed to face more of if he doesn't have McKinnie guarding his blindside.

Dwight Smith
The Vikings released their starting strong safety last week (I really need to update more often--I promise I'll work on it). While Smith has been a solid contributer, his play wasn't so good that it made sense to hold onto him despite his off field troubles. If you're going to get burned by Devin Hester on a simple go route that you knew he was running, well, you better not get arrested for marijuana possession and lewd conduct at a night club.
Tank Williams and Mike Doss are both unrestricted free agents, which means that they don't have anyone to start at the position next year, unless they plan on moving Antoine Winfield to strong safety (a position he would excel in), which would create a similar gap at cornerback. I wouldn't be surprised to see Childress bring Tank back (and he does have a bad ass name), something that would at least justify the Vikings' decision to release Greg Blue before last year. Even if they do bring back Tank, however, they should try and find a long term solution in the draft, something they were likely planning on doing last year, until the Redskins drafted LaRon Landry at #6 and the Purple Jesus fell into their lap. Kenny Williams, a senior from the University of Miami, is widely considered the best safety in the draft, but he might not be available to the Purple at #17. Despite that, he's officially been added to the list of players I plan on taking an in depth look at prior to the draft (along with defensive ends Derrick Harvey from Florida and Calais Campbell from Miami, as well as a few others).

Three Stars and Some Hope

Well...who saw that one coming? I did (well, sort of). The Vikings pressured Eli Manning all day and, well, as we saw against Philip Rivers, when you pressure an error prone quarterback, good things happen. Four interceptions later, the Vikings walked out of Giants Stadium with a victory and with a renewed sense of hope, only one game out of the final Wild Card spot. I'll have more on the Vikings' playoff hopes later this afternoon, because this post is about the players that made the Vikings' fifth victory happen. First, the honorable mentions:

• Chad Greenway picked off his second career pass and outran Plexico Burress for his first career touchdown that ended any thought of a Giants comeback.
  

• Ben Leber picked up a sack near the end of the game, which he deserved, because he helped keep the pressure on Eli Manning all day. He also contributed to the play of the game, by tipping Manning's pass at the line so that it was nice and easy for Dwight Smith to pick off and return for a touchdown.

• Tarvaris Jackson had another efficient day, completing 10/12 passes for 129 yards and a touchdown. He also ran 5 times for 38 yards, including a 19 yard run that converted a 3rd and 4 and an 11 yard run that picked up a first down on 2nd and 11 on a drive that ended with a Ryan Longwell field goal that pushed the Vikings' lead to 27-10. He was sacked four times, however, and fumbled once. The juries still out on Tarvaris--his accuracy has come around the past two games, but most of his completions are on short patterns. He's shown he can air it out (his 60 yard pass to Sidney Rice today being a good example), but he hasn't shown that he can do much more than be an efficient (his career high is 213 passing yards).

• Chester Taylor didn't have as good a game against the Giants as he did last week. In fact, he wasn't all that effective, gaining less than 2.5 yards per carry on 31 carries. That being said, his eight yard touchdown run in the second quarter was a thing of beauty. He ran left, broke a tackle behind the line of scrimmage and then ran into two Giants defenders at the line. He ran through them, bounced outside and then dragged another two Giants into the endzone with him. He earned that touchdown.

Those were the honorable mentions--now it's time to move onto the Three Stars of the Game:

Third Star: Sidney Rice

Sidney Rice continues to prove the Vikings' personnel people right--his 23 receptions is tied for fourth amongst rookie recievers, his 312 receiving yards and his three touchdowns are tied for third and no receiver has more receptions for 40+ yards than he does. And he made a great catch on a deep sideline pattern that opened the scoring for the Vikings. Everyone that thought he was another Troy Williamson should apologize.

Second Star: Darren Sharper

The game was tied. The Vikings had been forced to punt just shy of field goal range. The Giants were facing a third down play that, if they converted, would have swung the momentum completely in their favor. Eli Manning dropped back to pass, felt the rush, stepped up, threw and Darren Sharper stepped in front of Jeremy Shockey, picked off the pass and dashed for the end zone. The Giants wouldn't score again until the third quarter. Sharper's touchdown was his tenth, and he became the fifth defender in NFL history with ten defensive touchdowns, behind only Rod Woodson (13) and Aenas Williams (12).

First Star: Dwight Smith

Hopefully, he doesn't choose to celebrate this like he celebrated last preseason. If he does though, can you blame him? He had two interceptions, one which set up Chester Taylor's eight yard touchdown run and one that he returned 93 yards for a touchdown himself. His 112 yards on interception returns were only 17 yards less than Tarvaris Jackson threw for and more total yards than any none quarterback. Not a bad game for a safety who'd been battling hamstring issues all season. Not a bad game at all.

The Return of the Wisconsin Women

I haven't had the privilage of assigning the women from Wisconsin to party with anyone in a long time. I mean, it's been over a month. Thankfully, some Vikings finally stepped up, and the women get to do what they do best--hang out with the Vikings. And who better to celebrate the start of a new winning streak with (yay optimism!) than the man who started this tradition way back in the preseason. That noble act, along with a game changing interception after the Vikings went up 21-13 and the game clinching interception, net Dwight Smith an all inclusive pass to party with the women from Hudson that he brought into the fold so many months ago.

It's Over Now--Time to Party!