I guess it was a mistake discounting all of the rumors about the Vikings drafting Percy Harvin. It wasn't a stupid mistake (he says, having made it), what with the Vikings over zealous efforts to play the misinformation game in previous years, the "culture of accountability" and Brad Childress' statements about not wanting to draft wide receivers in the first round, but it was a mistake.
But was it a mistake by the Vikings? That, I'm not sure about. Harvin has a lot of red flags. There's his positive test for marijuana at the Combine, which says a lot about his decision making, none of which is good. There's his issues in high school, where he was suspended for fighting. And there's his injury history. He's never had the kind of career changing injury that Daunte Culpepper or Willis McGahee had, but he's been constantly hurt through out his college career. He didn't miss a lot of games, so you can't say anything about his toughness, but when your injury history inspires posts like this one, its not a good sign, especially when you're 5'11, 195lbs and constantly handling the ball. Then again, drafting an "injury prone" running back with the 7th pick worked out well two years ago. Let's just hope the Vikings did their homework.
What you can't deny about Harvin is his game breaking speed and agility. He has all the upside (drink!) you could possibly ask for. If you get him the ball, he'll make things happen, just like he did at Florida. Of course, at Florida, he had an offensive genius running a system that isn't very compatible with NFL systems, featuring him as a running back and on a lot of short patterns at wide receiver. It wasn't exactly the West Coast offense, and he wasn't having to share the focus of the offense with Adrian Peterson and Bernard Berrian. And I'll let you make the comparison between Urban Meyer and Brad Childress. There's been a lot said about Childress' inability to use Chester Taylor properly, and he now has to figure out how to use a RB/WR hybrid as well. And make no mistake about it- Harvin's a hybrid (at least for now), another example of the effect of the spread on college football. Can he transition into the NFL as a wid eout, where his route running ability will be a much larger factor on his success than it did in college? Especially considering he's coming from the spread? Can he become what Devin Hester (he's probably the best comparison, both due to explosiveness and his raw offensive skills) is now?
And then there's the Vikings' Second round choice, Phil Loadholt, a massive tackle that will hopefully solve the Vikings problems at right tackle. And Loadholt should be a good one, starting two years at left tackle for Oklahoma, where he showed all of the skills needed to be a very good right tackle. At 6'8, 332, Loadholt is huge, he's strong and he can create huge holes for Adrian Peterson to run through. In his 822 snaps at OU, he had 94 knockdowns, eight down
field blocks and a league-high 16 touchdown-resulting blocks. He's a quality pass blocker as well and only allowed just one quarterback pressure and two sacks on 438 pass plays. Of course, there are questions about him as well. Some scouting reports question his intelligence, while others believe that along with his size come a pair of slow feet (there's a reason he wasn't seen as a first round left tackle) that could lead to a lot of holding calls once Loaderholt starts to face improved competition that is big and quick. He’s definitely not the prospect that Michael Oher was, but he looks to be good enough to step in and replace the mediocrity that is Ryan Cook.
The Vikings finished up their first three rounds by addressing their corner depth and return game (so, if anything, you have to give them credit for addressing their four biggest needs in the first three rounds) by drafting Antoine Winfield, I mean, Asher Allen from Georgia. Allen is Winfield, if Antoine Winfield had been drafted his junior year instead of his senior year and returned kicks and punts. He was a semi-finalist for the Jim Thorpe Award as a junior (Winfield won the award as the best defensive back his senior year), he’s a sure tackler and while he may not have the ridiculous athleticism of some corners, he’s a solid cover corner and he’s tough, playing the last five games of the season with a fractured hand. And even more importantly, he has the ability to contribute in the return game, something the Vikings desperately need. Of course, like any other third round pick, there are some question marks (even aside from his height). He only had three interceptions in his three years at Georgia, one against Troy and two against Hawaii in the Sugar Bowl (not exactly elite competition, especially when you remember that Colt Brennan was getting knocked down every single play by Georgia’s pass rush in the Sugar Bowl). And he’s only returned 10 punts, meaning he’s likely not the punt returner the Vikings need even more than they need a kick returner.
Overall, this draft could be a good one for the Vikings. If the fears about Harvin are overblown and Childress can figure out how to get him the ball where he can make plays, he can be the offensive weapon the Purple need to compliment Peterson and Berrian. If Loadholt’s transition to the right side allows him to overcome or hide his problems with quicker pass rushers and he uses his bulk to create huge holes for Peterson, Taylor and Harvin, he could be answer to the Vikings’ right side issues. And Allen could develop into Antoine Winfield, Jr., providing amazing run support and solid coverage all while returning kicks and punts. It could also be a 2005 style disaster, with Harvin using the deadly combination of injuries and poor decision making to play himself out of the league, Loadholt’s slow feet forcing him to clutch and grab his way to holding penalties galore and Allen showing why there aren’t more good defensive backs Antoine Winfield’s size in the NFL.
Showing posts with label NFL Draft. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NFL Draft. Show all posts
Monday, April 27, 2009
Monday, March 16, 2009
Killing Time: Cutler, Paymah and the Draft
Jay Cutler
Apparently, Jay Cutler has asked for a trade. I've said it before and I'll say it again--the Vikings should be doing everything they can to acquire Jay Cutler. That includes giving up multiple draft picks. Remember--draft picks are about acquiring good, young talent. Cutler is 25 and he's very good. He's also under contract for three more years, and it's a relatively cheap one for a Pro Bowl quarterback.
More on Cutler:
The Vikings signed Karl Paymah (making it that much easier for Sports Columnists and Bloggers to make puns while writing about the Vikings) over the weekend. (H/T to Chris for the article). It sounds like Paymah is going to end up playing special teams and competing for the nickleback job, though his contract makes me think the Vikings' expect him to win that job, since his contract is worth about million dollars more than Charles Gordon or Benny Sapp's. I like that the Vikings are acquiring depth at corner, which was arguably their weakest position last year, but it doesn't sound like Paymah, Gordon or Sapp are long term answers, and Antoine Winfield Cedric Griffin are unrestricted free agents at the end of the year.
More on Paymah:
Apparently, Jay Cutler has asked for a trade. I've said it before and I'll say it again--the Vikings should be doing everything they can to acquire Jay Cutler. That includes giving up multiple draft picks. Remember--draft picks are about acquiring good, young talent. Cutler is 25 and he's very good. He's also under contract for three more years, and it's a relatively cheap one for a Pro Bowl quarterback.
More on Cutler:
- Grant's Tomb on the Cutler Experience.
- Kevin Seifert at ESPN's NFC North Blog breaks down the NFC North teams that might want Cutler.
The Vikings signed Karl Paymah (making it that much easier for Sports Columnists and Bloggers to make puns while writing about the Vikings) over the weekend. (H/T to Chris for the article). It sounds like Paymah is going to end up playing special teams and competing for the nickleback job, though his contract makes me think the Vikings' expect him to win that job, since his contract is worth about million dollars more than Charles Gordon or Benny Sapp's. I like that the Vikings are acquiring depth at corner, which was arguably their weakest position last year, but it doesn't sound like Paymah, Gordon or Sapp are long term answers, and Antoine Winfield Cedric Griffin are unrestricted free agents at the end of the year.
More on Paymah:
- Access Vikings has a scouting report on Paymah after entering the NFL Draft.
- The ESPN NFC North Blog has the analysis of Paymah from Scouts, Inc.
- The National Football Post has an interesting article on offensive linemen's reach and hand size and its effect on their performance.
- New Mock Drafts: NFP has the Vikings taking WR Jeremy Maclin from Missouri in the first round, while SI has the Vikings taking WR/RB Percy Harvin from Florida and Draft Countdown has the Purple taking OT Eben Britton from Arizona with the 22nd pick and CB Sean Smith from Utah with the 54th pick.
- Stay tuned to find out who I'll be taking for the Vikings in the No Logo Needed Mock Draft, but I can guarantee you it won't be a wide receiver.
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Killing Time: Free Agency Eve
As you've probably heard a hundred times already, teams are able to sign free agents starting at 11pm tonight. And we all hope (and think) that the Vikings will be active in the free agency market. After some of their top targets re-signed with their current teams, its not clear who they're likely to target in the market. They have needs at offensive line, cornerback, wide receiver and kick and punt returner. While there doesn't seem to be many corners worth signing (and they re-signed Charles Gordon to play nickel back and possibly return punts), there are still some intriguing linemen and wide receivers available.
One of the best lineman is Jason Brown, who started at center for the Ravens. He'll only be 26 during this upcoming season, and he was a dominant run blocker in the middle. While the Ravens' running backs were constantly injured, they still had a very good running game, ranking 9th in DVOA. And they were the most successful when they ran up the middle, averaging 4.40 yards per carry, the 10th best in the NFL (and better than the Vikings, who were 19th with 4.15 yards). He can also play guard, which allows the Vikings to play John Sullivan at center if he earns it, upgrading two positions at once.
Another possibility for the Purple is Laveranues Coles. The Jets cut him loose yesterday in order to get under the cap, and acquiring him would add another quality target for Tarvaris (or Sage). Last year, he caught 70 passes for 836 yards and 8 touchdowns. He caught 61% of the passes thrown his way, and was 24th and 36th in DYAR and DVOA (which would have put him well ahead of Bobby Wade for second in both categories on the Vikings). He's not much of a deep threat (he only caught 2 passes over 40 yards), but he'd be a quality possession receiver and would complement Bernard Berrian well. He might end up back with the Jets, however, so I wouldn't get your hopes up about seeing him in Purple.
If you're looking for more players worth targeting, Yahoo has a list of the top 100 free agents (h/t Football Outsiders). Don't be suprised to see the Vikings try and bring in Khalif Barnes, Mark Tauscher or Jon Stinchcom to play right tackle. Niners Nation has a good breakdown of those three, and the other available free agent tackles if you want to know more. And don't forget the twelve Vikings who are unrestricted free agents this year.
Quarterbacks:
One of the best lineman is Jason Brown, who started at center for the Ravens. He'll only be 26 during this upcoming season, and he was a dominant run blocker in the middle. While the Ravens' running backs were constantly injured, they still had a very good running game, ranking 9th in DVOA. And they were the most successful when they ran up the middle, averaging 4.40 yards per carry, the 10th best in the NFL (and better than the Vikings, who were 19th with 4.15 yards). He can also play guard, which allows the Vikings to play John Sullivan at center if he earns it, upgrading two positions at once.
Another possibility for the Purple is Laveranues Coles. The Jets cut him loose yesterday in order to get under the cap, and acquiring him would add another quality target for Tarvaris (or Sage). Last year, he caught 70 passes for 836 yards and 8 touchdowns. He caught 61% of the passes thrown his way, and was 24th and 36th in DYAR and DVOA (which would have put him well ahead of Bobby Wade for second in both categories on the Vikings). He's not much of a deep threat (he only caught 2 passes over 40 yards), but he'd be a quality possession receiver and would complement Bernard Berrian well. He might end up back with the Jets, however, so I wouldn't get your hopes up about seeing him in Purple.
If you're looking for more players worth targeting, Yahoo has a list of the top 100 free agents (h/t Football Outsiders). Don't be suprised to see the Vikings try and bring in Khalif Barnes, Mark Tauscher or Jon Stinchcom to play right tackle. Niners Nation has a good breakdown of those three, and the other available free agent tackles if you want to know more. And don't forget the twelve Vikings who are unrestricted free agents this year.
Quarterbacks:
- Jason Winter compares Tarvaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels at Defensive Indifference.
- Kevin Seifert puts Tarvaris in context. It's not pretty.
- Sports Illustrated and the National Football Post on the impact of the Combine on draft prospects.
- Football Outsiders on the one part of the Combine that may actually be predictive. (And gives us a reason to be happy the Vikings' don't need a running back)
- Their court date is set for June 15th. The schedule hasn't been released yet, but if the Vikings have to play four games without the Williams Wall, they're going to be starting out the season yet another hole.
Monday, February 23, 2009
Get to Know 'Em: Pat White
For awhile now, I've been expecting (maybe even hoping) the Vikings would take quarterback Nate Davis out of Ball State in the second round if they decided to go the "sign a veteran and draft a future starter" route to improve at quarterback. That assumed that Davis would step up and claim a spot as a sure second round pick, something it seems he's not doing. But enough negativity (of which there is more than enough due to this threat from Brad Childress). Let's talk about a player that might actually be a long term answer to the Vikings' quarterback problems: Pat White.
Now, as I mentioned when I looked at the various quarterback prospects, the two most predictive statistics for college quarterbacks talented enough to go in the first or second round, are games started and completion percentage. And those are two stats in which Pat White did very well. He started 42 games in his college career, and completed 64.8% of his passes. And it seems that he just might have the arm to actually make the transition from Spread QB to NFL QB, which might raise his stock high enough to make the Lewin Forecaster applicable (it's only for QBs taken in the first and second rounds).
Of course, there are a couple of reasons why most teams don't see White as an NFL QB. He's only 6'1 and is under 200 lbs, likely making him the smallest quarterback in the league. The man's very breakable, and he had to sit out (or leave) games with injuries his sophomore, junior and senior seasons. And he was a run first quarterback in a spread offense--he threw less than 800 passes in his four years. If you're worried about Matt Cassel's ability to run the Vikings' offense from under center, you should definitely be worried about Pat White's ability to run an offense that isn't 80-90% shotgun formation (a problem almost every quarterback in the draft has, including Josh Freeman and Nate Davis thanks to the widespread use of the Spread).
So is Pat White the best answer to the Vikings' quarterback issues? Probably not, but I don't know if there is a "best answer" at this point. He obviously has some drawbacks, but if the scouts think he has the arm strength and the accuracy to play quarterback, he was more than productive enough in college to make him an interesting long term option, especially if the Purple put him on the same diet as Pat Williams.
Now, as I mentioned when I looked at the various quarterback prospects, the two most predictive statistics for college quarterbacks talented enough to go in the first or second round, are games started and completion percentage. And those are two stats in which Pat White did very well. He started 42 games in his college career, and completed 64.8% of his passes. And it seems that he just might have the arm to actually make the transition from Spread QB to NFL QB, which might raise his stock high enough to make the Lewin Forecaster applicable (it's only for QBs taken in the first and second rounds).
Of course, there are a couple of reasons why most teams don't see White as an NFL QB. He's only 6'1 and is under 200 lbs, likely making him the smallest quarterback in the league. The man's very breakable, and he had to sit out (or leave) games with injuries his sophomore, junior and senior seasons. And he was a run first quarterback in a spread offense--he threw less than 800 passes in his four years. If you're worried about Matt Cassel's ability to run the Vikings' offense from under center, you should definitely be worried about Pat White's ability to run an offense that isn't 80-90% shotgun formation (a problem almost every quarterback in the draft has, including Josh Freeman and Nate Davis thanks to the widespread use of the Spread).
So is Pat White the best answer to the Vikings' quarterback issues? Probably not, but I don't know if there is a "best answer" at this point. He obviously has some drawbacks, but if the scouts think he has the arm strength and the accuracy to play quarterback, he was more than productive enough in college to make him an interesting long term option, especially if the Purple put him on the same diet as Pat Williams.
Thursday, February 19, 2009
Killing Time: Hicks, Combine and Tackle Depth
Maurice Hicks:
The Vikings waived Maurice Hicks yesterday, ending what was a failed free agent pick up. Hicks was brought in to improve the Vikings special teams, specifically their return games, even though he hadn't shown the ability to be anything other than a mediocre returner (as I pointed out when he signed). His signing was an example of valuing experience over talent, and it came back to hurt the Vikings, as he had a key fumble on a kickoff return against Tampa Bay, had 9 returns of less than 20 yards and never once returned a kickoff more than 40 yards. For a team built on defense and the running game (i.e., field position), having a good kick returner is important, which is why Hicks' signing was so damaging to the Vikings last year.
The Combine:
The Combine started yesterday, and while it's nowhere important, it can be a useful tool in evaluating draft prospects for the teams that approach it properly. Based on this interview with Rick Speilman, I think the Vikings do it right (h/t ESPN NFC North Blog). They aren't going to give too much weight to the workouts, but they are going to use it as a way to get a handle on the people these draft prospects are. The Vikings have done a good job in the draft since the infamous 2005 draft, and their approach to the Combine has certainly contributed to that.
Tackle Depth:
One of the things that I (along with most Viking's fans) have forgotten about is the impending resolution of the Williams Wall's legal battle over their suspension. Depending on the outcome, the Vikings might be short both of their starting tackles for the first four games of the season. And, even if they aren't suspended, the Williams' backups, Fred Evans and Ellis Wyms, are both free agents this year (although Evans is only a restricted free agent). The Vikings took LaTroy Guion in the fifth round last year to help at tackle, but additional depth would be nice, especially if Guion isn't ready to contribute after spending last year adjusting to the NFL. The National Football Post has a breakdown of the available free agent defensive tackles, and someone like Ryan Boschetti or Grady Jackson would be a welcome addition to the defensive line.
The Vikings waived Maurice Hicks yesterday, ending what was a failed free agent pick up. Hicks was brought in to improve the Vikings special teams, specifically their return games, even though he hadn't shown the ability to be anything other than a mediocre returner (as I pointed out when he signed). His signing was an example of valuing experience over talent, and it came back to hurt the Vikings, as he had a key fumble on a kickoff return against Tampa Bay, had 9 returns of less than 20 yards and never once returned a kickoff more than 40 yards. For a team built on defense and the running game (i.e., field position), having a good kick returner is important, which is why Hicks' signing was so damaging to the Vikings last year.
The Combine:
The Combine started yesterday, and while it's nowhere important, it can be a useful tool in evaluating draft prospects for the teams that approach it properly. Based on this interview with Rick Speilman, I think the Vikings do it right (h/t ESPN NFC North Blog). They aren't going to give too much weight to the workouts, but they are going to use it as a way to get a handle on the people these draft prospects are. The Vikings have done a good job in the draft since the infamous 2005 draft, and their approach to the Combine has certainly contributed to that.
Tackle Depth:
One of the things that I (along with most Viking's fans) have forgotten about is the impending resolution of the Williams Wall's legal battle over their suspension. Depending on the outcome, the Vikings might be short both of their starting tackles for the first four games of the season. And, even if they aren't suspended, the Williams' backups, Fred Evans and Ellis Wyms, are both free agents this year (although Evans is only a restricted free agent). The Vikings took LaTroy Guion in the fifth round last year to help at tackle, but additional depth would be nice, especially if Guion isn't ready to contribute after spending last year adjusting to the NFL. The National Football Post has a breakdown of the available free agent defensive tackles, and someone like Ryan Boschetti or Grady Jackson would be a welcome addition to the defensive line.
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
Killing Time: Contingency Plans
One of the things that makes the off season so interesting is that the Vikings can address their different needs (Quarterback, Cornerback, Offensive line) in so many different ways. What they do in the draft will depend on what they do in free agency, which will depend on whether or not they make a trade which will depend on what they do in free agency and effect how they go about their draft.
Think about it like this: If the Vikings sign Jeff Garcia to play quarterback, they've addressed that position for the season, but still need a long term solution. They also still need a corner back and bring in some help for the positions right of Steve Hutchinson. Odds are they won't have any good options for corners in free agency, but there are a few decent right tackles available. So now their first round pick is still wide open--could be Kansas St. QB Josh Freeman, could be a lineman or it could be a cornerback (with Ball St. QB Nate Davis as their second round pick). If they trade for Matt Cassel, then they're probably out a first round pick, but you know they'll be targeting cornerbacks in the second round (especially if they bring in some depth on the line). And if they can't get Cassel or Garcia, they probably have to trade up for Mark Sanchez if they want a player that has a chance of competing with Tarvaris for the starting job (please don't let this happen). Everything is contingent upon everything. Which makes any kind of mock draft just so much idle speculation until after free agency at least and why it's so hard to figure out which player the Vikings' should pick in the first round.
More on Cassel:
Think about it like this: If the Vikings sign Jeff Garcia to play quarterback, they've addressed that position for the season, but still need a long term solution. They also still need a corner back and bring in some help for the positions right of Steve Hutchinson. Odds are they won't have any good options for corners in free agency, but there are a few decent right tackles available. So now their first round pick is still wide open--could be Kansas St. QB Josh Freeman, could be a lineman or it could be a cornerback (with Ball St. QB Nate Davis as their second round pick). If they trade for Matt Cassel, then they're probably out a first round pick, but you know they'll be targeting cornerbacks in the second round (especially if they bring in some depth on the line). And if they can't get Cassel or Garcia, they probably have to trade up for Mark Sanchez if they want a player that has a chance of competing with Tarvaris for the starting job (please don't let this happen). Everything is contingent upon everything. Which makes any kind of mock draft just so much idle speculation until after free agency at least and why it's so hard to figure out which player the Vikings' should pick in the first round.
More on Cassel:
- DC from Grant's Tomb breaks down Cassel after watching the rebroadcast of the Pats-Jets game.
- Greg Cossel of NFL Films gives his thoughts on the reason for Cassel's success. If he's right, it's not a good sign for a team with a coach that has a slavish adherence to his own system. (h/t Football Outsiders)
- Eugene Monroe breaks down the top offensive linemen available.
- The National Football Post and the Daily Norseman have new mock drafts up. The Post has the Vikings taking Josh Freeman while Gonzo has the Purple taking center Alex Mack from Oregon.
- Football Outsiders has their pre-free agency breakdown of the off season for all four NFC North teams.
Thursday, February 05, 2009
Get to Know 'Em: Quarterback Prospects
[This post has been edited to reflect reality. I had Matt Stafford's, Mark Sanchez', Josh Freeman's and Nate Davis' numbers completely wrong, completely changing my conclusion. Sloppy research on my part, but in my defense, its not easy to find statistics on college players for some reason. I blame ESPN (who had some wrong numbers and don't give career stats for college players). Thanks to the Anonymous commenter who pointed it out.]
It’s quite obvious that the Vikings need to do something about the quarterback position this off season. Another year with Tarvaris (or a mediocre to bad veteran that was signed to back him up) under center isn’t going to cut it. One of the ways they might address the position is by drafting a QB (which, would, I think, probably be a lot more rational than trying to acquire Matt Cassell or wagering it all next year on an over the hill veteran like Jeff Garcia or *shudder* Brett Favre). Of course, if they’re going to draft a quarterback the need to find one that can contribute by 2010 at the latest, which likely means drafting one in the first or second round. Of course, if they’re going to draft a quarterback, they need to draft a good one. So how do you know which college quarterback is going to be good? Well, luckily for us, Dave Lewin at Football Outsiders has developed a system that’s pretty accurate at determining which quarterbacks are worth taking. In a nutshell:
Lewin found that there are only two college QB statistics that reliably, and independent of all others, predict NFL QB performance: completion percentage and games started. Completion percentage is obvious: QBs kind of have to be able to hit their target. Generally, you’re looking for a 60% completion percentage and around 35 games started in college.
Lewin’s system only applies to QBs drafted in the first two rounds because, as Lewin showed, pro scouts are good enough to separate top talent from lesser talent. Which is the more games a player started, the better (not to mention the more talented quarterbacks tend to play earlier in their career in college). The guys who go after the first 2 rounds are generally there for good reason (Tom Brady excluded). When a team ends up with a bust, it’s usually because they either reached (*cough* Tarvaris Jackson *cough*) or because the quarterback didn’t play enough for their flaws to become apparent. Or the team ignored the flaws because of other things they thought mattered more, like arm strength, which are usually vastly overrated.
So how does this year’s crop of quarterbacks look? Well, from looking at the various draft sites, I’ve come up with a list of 7 quarterbacks that might go in the first or second round. Not all of them will, but I’m trying to be comprehensive and I’ve included where most sites have them going.
| Quarterback | College | Predicted Round | Games Started | Completion Percentage |
| Matt Stafford | | 1st | 32 | 57.1% |
| Mark Sanchez | USC | 1st | 16 | 64.2 |
| Josh Freeman | | Late 1st | 31 | 59.1% |
| Nate Davis | | 2nd | 37 | 60.3% |
| Pat White | | 2nd/3rd | 42 | 64.8% |
| Graham Harrell | | 2nd/3rd | 41 | 69.8% |
| Rhett Bomar | | 2nd/3rd | 26 | 56.5% |
So what does this tell us about this year’s quarterback class? Well, there isn't a quarterback that meet the two standards and will go in the 1st or 2nd round. Matt Stafford isn't close to the mark completion wise, but he hasn’t started as many games (and while 32 games is a solid amount, he platooned his first year playing). Mark Sanchez didn't start anywhere near enough games (though with USC quarterbacks, that isn't necessarily about a lack of talent) and Josh Freeman didn’t hit either mark (though his games started and completion percentage were close), which makes sense, considering he’s seen as a very raw quarterback. Nate Davis is like Matt Stafford--he started 32 games, but platooned a few more his freshman year. He was more accurate in college than Stafford was though. Pat White and Graham Harrell both hit each mark, but quarterbacks like them are why this projection system doesn’t work past the first two rounds—neither of them is seen as having the physical tools necessary to be successful in the NFL. And Rhett Bomar is an interesting case because he probably would have played 35 games for
So where does that leave the Vikings? Well, none of the quarterbacks made the benchmarks that predict success in the NFL. So, that makes this year's draft particularly unappetizing when it comes to quarterbacks. Which is great, because the Vikings probably need to draft one this year. Matt Stafford and Mark Sanchez aren’t likely to fall to the 22nd pick. Josh Freeman might be there, but he’s a project and didn’t hit either of the marks that predict success in the NFL. Nate Davis is intriguing, however, and he might be available to the Purple in the 2nd Round, allowing them to address another one of their issues in the first, but he's a little small for a quarterback and would have to adjust from the MAC to the NFL (then again, the MAC seems to turn out very good NFL quarterbacks). I’m going to get into this a lot more (look for a breakdown of the Vikings’ needs next) and hopefully take a more in depth look at the prospects the Vikings might take in the first round, but as of right now, it doesn’t look like they should be drafting a quarterback with the 22nd pick.
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
Killing Time: Tomlin v. Childress, the 3-4, Daunte Clones and Assistants
- Grant's Tomb compares the approach Mike Tomlin and Brad Childress took when starting as head coach. Guess which one he liked better? (Here's a hint--it's not the one who won Football Outsiders' Keep Chopping Wood award for Head Coaches.)
- The Green Bay Packers are going to be running a 3-4 defense next year. This is both a good thing and a bad. It's a good thing because the Packers don't really have the personnel to run the defense, as Acme Packing Company explains. That will exacerbate the weakness of the defense, and de-emphasize the strengths (both of which the Acme post explains). Then again, if Tarvaris Jackson is going to be playing quarterback next year, seeing the 3-4 will cause problems, because it will require him to recognize where the blitz is coming from and adjust accordingly. I'm sorry, but I just don't think he'll be able to do that.
- Draft Countdown's most recent mock draft has the Purple taking Josh Freeman, a junior quarterback out of Kansas St. At 6'6", 250lbs, Freeman's a Daunte clone, and I mean that in a good way. Would he be the best choice? Maybe, maybe not, but make sure you check back because I'm going to breaking down the draft again like I have the past two years.
- Leslie Frazier isn't going anywhere, but Special Teams Coordinator Paul Ferraro might be. Come on Spags! Hire him! Ignore the performance of the Vikings' Special Teams. He's your best friend! You've got to offer him a job!
Monday, April 28, 2008
Wrapping Up the Draft: Almost an Unqualified Success
The Vikings' draft was almost an unqualified success. They were able to draft players to add depth at almost all of the positions they needed to add depth at except tackle, and they ignored a position, tight end, where they have depth but don't have any quality players And while I'm not happy that the Vikings didn't draft a tight end that might actually be worth throwing to, the fact that they didn't draft a tackle means they didn't add any depth to the position at which they'll likely need depth the soonest.
After trading their fourth round pick to draft Tyrell Johnson, who was perhaps the top safety in the draft, I wrote that the Purple's trade cost them a draft pick they would need if they wanted to find players at all of their positions of need, specifically focusing on quarterbacks that were likely to be gone by the fifth round. I was wrong that the Vikings wouldn't have their choice of quarterbacks, as Andre Woodson, Josh Johnson and John David Booty were all available to the Vikings in the fifth round (or, at least, were available after the Vikings moved up). I was right, however, about the fact that the Purple traded away their chance to add depth at all the positions they needed to, as they missed the chance to pick up any of the three tackles that were available with their pick in the fourth round and were off the board by the time they went on the clock in the fifth round.
While I liked seeing the Purple pick up the eventual successor for Pat Williams late in the fifth round (Letroy Guion from Florida State) and the successor for Matt Birk (John Sullivan from Notre Dame) and a wide receiver with punt return experience (Jaymar Johnson from Jacksonville State) in the sixth round, I'm not sure that I like the choice of John David Booty as the Vikings' developmental quarterback. While Booty has the accuracy and ability to make all the reads needed in the West Coast offense, he is a pocket passer and doesn't have that good of an arm. His upside is that of a league average quarterback, unlike Andre Woodson and Josh Johnson, who could both turn into stars, as they both have similar accuracy, ability to run an offense and combine that with a good arm and the ability to make plays with their feet. And neither Woodson or Johnson are likely to inspire any awful jokes. If anything, I think Johnson was probably the best developmental quarterback available, due to his speed and arm strength. Like Tarvaris, he played for a 1-AA school, but unlike Tarvaris, he was statisically dominate, completing 68% of his passes in his 3+ years of starting and throwing 43 touchdowns to 2 interceptions his senior year. And he had a good coach with NFL experience in Jim Harbaugh.
So while the Vikings may have answered the questions about who will succeed Darren Sharper, Pat Williams and Matt Birk and picked up a receiver that can return punts, they left open the question as to who will step into the lineup if Bryant McKinnie is suspended for four games or if Ryan Cook doesn't improve and they choose the developmental quarterback with the least upside. So while it's something of a waste of time to try and grade a draft immediately after it's completed, the Vikings choice not to draft a tackle and to pick Booty over Woodson and Johnson mean that the Purple won't receive an "A" from me, but the depth they added at other positions and the fact that Jacksonville gave up more draft picks to move up and draft Derrick Harvey than the Vikings did to trade for Jared Allen means that the Purple's draft was still relatively successful.
After trading their fourth round pick to draft Tyrell Johnson, who was perhaps the top safety in the draft, I wrote that the Purple's trade cost them a draft pick they would need if they wanted to find players at all of their positions of need, specifically focusing on quarterbacks that were likely to be gone by the fifth round. I was wrong that the Vikings wouldn't have their choice of quarterbacks, as Andre Woodson, Josh Johnson and John David Booty were all available to the Vikings in the fifth round (or, at least, were available after the Vikings moved up). I was right, however, about the fact that the Purple traded away their chance to add depth at all the positions they needed to, as they missed the chance to pick up any of the three tackles that were available with their pick in the fourth round and were off the board by the time they went on the clock in the fifth round.
While I liked seeing the Purple pick up the eventual successor for Pat Williams late in the fifth round (Letroy Guion from Florida State) and the successor for Matt Birk (John Sullivan from Notre Dame) and a wide receiver with punt return experience (Jaymar Johnson from Jacksonville State) in the sixth round, I'm not sure that I like the choice of John David Booty as the Vikings' developmental quarterback. While Booty has the accuracy and ability to make all the reads needed in the West Coast offense, he is a pocket passer and doesn't have that good of an arm. His upside is that of a league average quarterback, unlike Andre Woodson and Josh Johnson, who could both turn into stars, as they both have similar accuracy, ability to run an offense and combine that with a good arm and the ability to make plays with their feet. And neither Woodson or Johnson are likely to inspire any awful jokes. If anything, I think Johnson was probably the best developmental quarterback available, due to his speed and arm strength. Like Tarvaris, he played for a 1-AA school, but unlike Tarvaris, he was statisically dominate, completing 68% of his passes in his 3+ years of starting and throwing 43 touchdowns to 2 interceptions his senior year. And he had a good coach with NFL experience in Jim Harbaugh.
So while the Vikings may have answered the questions about who will succeed Darren Sharper, Pat Williams and Matt Birk and picked up a receiver that can return punts, they left open the question as to who will step into the lineup if Bryant McKinnie is suspended for four games or if Ryan Cook doesn't improve and they choose the developmental quarterback with the least upside. So while it's something of a waste of time to try and grade a draft immediately after it's completed, the Vikings choice not to draft a tackle and to pick Booty over Woodson and Johnson mean that the Purple won't receive an "A" from me, but the depth they added at other positions and the fact that Jacksonville gave up more draft picks to move up and draft Derrick Harvey than the Vikings did to trade for Jared Allen means that the Purple's draft was still relatively successful.
Sunday, April 27, 2008
Mixed Feelings About Tyrell
I'm of two minds about the Vikings' decision to trade their fourth round pick (117th overall) to move up in the second round and draft Tyrell Johnson, a 6'0", 206lb safety from Arkansas State. I like the addition of Tyrell (yes, I will be referring to him by his awesome middle name and I might even break out his equally cool first name, Marcellous, sometimes), but I'm not sure I like the fact that the Vikings gave up their fourth round pick in order to get him.
First, let's talk about the newest Viking. Tyrell Johnson is big, he's fast and he may just have been the best safety available in the draft. The Vikings clearly need a safety who'll be ready to step in and replace Darren Sharper when age finally catches up to him (even ageless ones, like the soon to be 33 year old Sharper, get old sometimes) and Tyrell Johnson will probably be ready to do so by the end of this year, if not sooner. Tyrell is perfect for the Cover-2, combining the best aspects of the free and strong safety positions, able to both bring the pain and with good coverage instincts, great closing speed and good hands. He's also will be able to step in and help out on special teams right away, yet another reason why he'll fit in well in Purple.
What I don't like about the Vikings' first day at the draft is the fact that they gave up their fourth round pick in order to move up. I understand that the Vikings likely needed to do so in order to select Tyrell, what with safety hungry Chicago, Detroit and Cincinnati waiting to draft Tyrell before the 47th pick. The thing is, the Purple have other needs that they need to address besides safety and even if Tyrell wasn't going to be available to them at the 47th pick, they could have used that choice to draft a wide receiver, tight end, offensive lineman or even a defensive tackle, which are all positions that the Vikings need depth at. Also, by trading away their fourth round pick, the Vikings gave away the chance to add another player at one of those positions, or at quarterback, a position that the Vikings have no plan at aside from Tarvaris Jackson. I like Tyrell Johnson, but I'm just not so sure I like him more than Martellus Bennett and Andre Woodson (or Josh Johnson, or a defensive tackle, etc).
First, let's talk about the newest Viking. Tyrell Johnson is big, he's fast and he may just have been the best safety available in the draft. The Vikings clearly need a safety who'll be ready to step in and replace Darren Sharper when age finally catches up to him (even ageless ones, like the soon to be 33 year old Sharper, get old sometimes) and Tyrell Johnson will probably be ready to do so by the end of this year, if not sooner. Tyrell is perfect for the Cover-2, combining the best aspects of the free and strong safety positions, able to both bring the pain and with good coverage instincts, great closing speed and good hands. He's also will be able to step in and help out on special teams right away, yet another reason why he'll fit in well in Purple.
What I don't like about the Vikings' first day at the draft is the fact that they gave up their fourth round pick in order to move up. I understand that the Vikings likely needed to do so in order to select Tyrell, what with safety hungry Chicago, Detroit and Cincinnati waiting to draft Tyrell before the 47th pick. The thing is, the Purple have other needs that they need to address besides safety and even if Tyrell wasn't going to be available to them at the 47th pick, they could have used that choice to draft a wide receiver, tight end, offensive lineman or even a defensive tackle, which are all positions that the Vikings need depth at. Also, by trading away their fourth round pick, the Vikings gave away the chance to add another player at one of those positions, or at quarterback, a position that the Vikings have no plan at aside from Tarvaris Jackson. I like Tyrell Johnson, but I'm just not so sure I like him more than Martellus Bennett and Andre Woodson (or Josh Johnson, or a defensive tackle, etc).
Friday, April 25, 2008
The Second Round--A Left Tackle or Tight End Please
Luckily for the Vikings, whether or not their draft is a success this year won't just come down to whether or not they are able to turn their second round pick into a productive player. The Purple have had quite a bit of success with their fourth round picks over the last few years, drafting Brian Robison and Ray Edwards the last two years and they were also able to find useful players like Mewelde Moore, Ontarrio Smith and Brian Williams in that round.
That being said, their second round pick, being their first, is the one that will be the most visible and the one that is most likely to turn into an impact player. By acquiring Jared Allen, the Vikings eliminated one of their needs (rendering this post moot), but they still have quite a few holes, and the 47th pick should be able to get them a player that will help fill one of them.
At this point, the Vikings' biggest need is on the offensive line, specifically tackle and center. Both Steve Hutchinson and Artis Hicks should be around at guard for a few more years, but the same cannot be said about Bryant McKinnie, Ryan Cook and Matt Birk. Cook is nominally Birk's replacement, but whether the Vikings want to hand him the position without any competition after his struggles at right tackle is a whole 'nother question. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Purple draft a center this year, but that's not a position that most teams draft for in the second round (Let's all just ignore what round Cook was drafted in right now, ok? Thanks). That means if the Vikings are going to address their line in the second round, they're likely going to do so by drafting an offensive tackle.
There are four tackles that I've seen going in the second round of the mock drafts: Sam Baker, (6'5", 309 lb) from USC, Duane Brown, (6'5", 300 lb) from Virginia Tech, Anthony Collins, (6'6" 308lb) from Kansas and Oniel Cousins, (6'4", 315lb) from UTEP. Baker is held in the highest regard, which isn't surprising, considering he held down the left tackle position at USC for four years, earning all kinds of accolades. If he somehow falls all the way to the Vikings, he should be their pick. Brown, Collins and Cousins were all impressive in college as well, but were not at the same level as Baker. They all need to improve their technique, footwork and strength, as well as show greater aggression. Brown seems to the best of the group, but at this point, differentiating between them isn't something I can do--they all have potential and with the right coaching, anyone of them could be a good tackle.
If Baker isn't available and the Purple don't want to use a pick on a developmental tackle, they should look to tight end as the next position to address. As the Eagles and L.J. Smith have shown, a good, pass catching tight end makes the West Coast Offense a lot more dangerous, and Visanthe Shiancoe has not given any one much of a reason to believe he can become a good, pass catching tight end in his five years in the NFL. There are three good tight ends that are projected to go in the second round, Dustin Keller from Purdue, Martellus Bennett from Texas A&M and John Carlson from Litchfield, MN...I mean Notre Dame. I wrote about them earlier, and while Keller seems the most likely to be able to step in and make an impact as a rookie, I think the Vikings should take a long look at Martellus Bennett. He's the perfect height for a tight end (6'7"), has great hands and, while still learning the game since giving up basketball, has all the speed (4.68 forty) and athletic ability that a dominate tight end (he declared for the NBA draft out of high school) should have. I'm not a big fan of Carlson, but I can't tell if its because he isn't an elite athlete for his position, because his stats dropped like a rock after Brady Quinn left or because I tend to judge Minnesotans harshly because I don't want to overrate them because they're from Minnesota. Either way, I'd rather have Keller or Bennett and I think I'd probably pass on Carlson even if he was the only tight end available.
If the Vikings don't like the left tackles and tight ends on the board when they draft, I think, as I just hinted, it's time to grab the best player available at any position, with an emphasis on cornerbacks, wide receivers and safeties, in that order. I would look at cornerback first, because, as the saying goes, you can never have enough corners, especially when your top three corners are two young guys that looked a little too shaky last year in Marcus McCauley and Cedric Griffin and a soon to be 31 year old that missed six games because of injury last year in Antoine Winfield. If the Purple prefer the wide receivers left, they should make sure to draft one with punt return experience, something that no one on their roster currently has any NFL experience with. Earl Bennet (6'1", 205lbs) from Vanderbilt, Eddie Royal (5'11", 182lbs) from Virginia Tech and Donnie Avery (5'11", 186lbs) from Houston all spent time fielding punts in college and might be available with the 47th pick. The last position I'd look to in the second round is safety. While the Vikings need a successor for Darren Sharper, the Purple plan on competing this year and should try to use their highest pick to pick up a player that can impact this season. Michael Boulware provides them the depth they need to cover an injury at safety and there are enough capable safeties in the draft that they can likely find a successor to groom in the later rounds. That being said, if the Purple decide to draft a safety, Tyrelle Johnson (6'0", 198lbs) from Arkansas State would be the best choice. DaJuan Morgan (6'1", 205lbs) from North Carolina State is likely to be the only safety available with the 47th pick, however, and he's a question mark, as he was only a starter as a junior and sat out his senior year because of a hip injury. He has a ton of talent, but is very unproven.
Finally, I would stay away from a quarterback in the second round, because now is not the time to put that kind of pressure on Tarvaris Jackson. If the Vikings want to accomplish their goals next year, they need Tarvaris to be good and bringing in a second rounder will put pressure on him in a way that will likely hurt his ability to play well. If the Purple want to use a 4th, 5th or 6th rounder on a quarterback to develop, that's fine, but their second round pick should be used to address another position. Brad Childress has hitched his fortunes to Tarvaris Jackson and this is the year he finds out if he was right to do so. Let's all hope he was.
That being said, their second round pick, being their first, is the one that will be the most visible and the one that is most likely to turn into an impact player. By acquiring Jared Allen, the Vikings eliminated one of their needs (rendering this post moot), but they still have quite a few holes, and the 47th pick should be able to get them a player that will help fill one of them.
At this point, the Vikings' biggest need is on the offensive line, specifically tackle and center. Both Steve Hutchinson and Artis Hicks should be around at guard for a few more years, but the same cannot be said about Bryant McKinnie, Ryan Cook and Matt Birk. Cook is nominally Birk's replacement, but whether the Vikings want to hand him the position without any competition after his struggles at right tackle is a whole 'nother question. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Purple draft a center this year, but that's not a position that most teams draft for in the second round (Let's all just ignore what round Cook was drafted in right now, ok? Thanks). That means if the Vikings are going to address their line in the second round, they're likely going to do so by drafting an offensive tackle.
There are four tackles that I've seen going in the second round of the mock drafts: Sam Baker, (6'5", 309 lb) from USC, Duane Brown, (6'5", 300 lb) from Virginia Tech, Anthony Collins, (6'6" 308lb) from Kansas and Oniel Cousins, (6'4", 315lb) from UTEP. Baker is held in the highest regard, which isn't surprising, considering he held down the left tackle position at USC for four years, earning all kinds of accolades. If he somehow falls all the way to the Vikings, he should be their pick. Brown, Collins and Cousins were all impressive in college as well, but were not at the same level as Baker. They all need to improve their technique, footwork and strength, as well as show greater aggression. Brown seems to the best of the group, but at this point, differentiating between them isn't something I can do--they all have potential and with the right coaching, anyone of them could be a good tackle.
If Baker isn't available and the Purple don't want to use a pick on a developmental tackle, they should look to tight end as the next position to address. As the Eagles and L.J. Smith have shown, a good, pass catching tight end makes the West Coast Offense a lot more dangerous, and Visanthe Shiancoe has not given any one much of a reason to believe he can become a good, pass catching tight end in his five years in the NFL. There are three good tight ends that are projected to go in the second round, Dustin Keller from Purdue, Martellus Bennett from Texas A&M and John Carlson from Litchfield, MN...I mean Notre Dame. I wrote about them earlier, and while Keller seems the most likely to be able to step in and make an impact as a rookie, I think the Vikings should take a long look at Martellus Bennett. He's the perfect height for a tight end (6'7"), has great hands and, while still learning the game since giving up basketball, has all the speed (4.68 forty) and athletic ability that a dominate tight end (he declared for the NBA draft out of high school) should have. I'm not a big fan of Carlson, but I can't tell if its because he isn't an elite athlete for his position, because his stats dropped like a rock after Brady Quinn left or because I tend to judge Minnesotans harshly because I don't want to overrate them because they're from Minnesota. Either way, I'd rather have Keller or Bennett and I think I'd probably pass on Carlson even if he was the only tight end available.
If the Vikings don't like the left tackles and tight ends on the board when they draft, I think, as I just hinted, it's time to grab the best player available at any position, with an emphasis on cornerbacks, wide receivers and safeties, in that order. I would look at cornerback first, because, as the saying goes, you can never have enough corners, especially when your top three corners are two young guys that looked a little too shaky last year in Marcus McCauley and Cedric Griffin and a soon to be 31 year old that missed six games because of injury last year in Antoine Winfield. If the Purple prefer the wide receivers left, they should make sure to draft one with punt return experience, something that no one on their roster currently has any NFL experience with. Earl Bennet (6'1", 205lbs) from Vanderbilt, Eddie Royal (5'11", 182lbs) from Virginia Tech and Donnie Avery (5'11", 186lbs) from Houston all spent time fielding punts in college and might be available with the 47th pick. The last position I'd look to in the second round is safety. While the Vikings need a successor for Darren Sharper, the Purple plan on competing this year and should try to use their highest pick to pick up a player that can impact this season. Michael Boulware provides them the depth they need to cover an injury at safety and there are enough capable safeties in the draft that they can likely find a successor to groom in the later rounds. That being said, if the Purple decide to draft a safety, Tyrelle Johnson (6'0", 198lbs) from Arkansas State would be the best choice. DaJuan Morgan (6'1", 205lbs) from North Carolina State is likely to be the only safety available with the 47th pick, however, and he's a question mark, as he was only a starter as a junior and sat out his senior year because of a hip injury. He has a ton of talent, but is very unproven.
Finally, I would stay away from a quarterback in the second round, because now is not the time to put that kind of pressure on Tarvaris Jackson. If the Vikings want to accomplish their goals next year, they need Tarvaris to be good and bringing in a second rounder will put pressure on him in a way that will likely hurt his ability to play well. If the Purple want to use a 4th, 5th or 6th rounder on a quarterback to develop, that's fine, but their second round pick should be used to address another position. Brad Childress has hitched his fortunes to Tarvaris Jackson and this is the year he finds out if he was right to do so. Let's all hope he was.
Alternate History and Some Solid Links
So you know, while I didn't get a wide receiver profile up at all (sometimes...and I mean sometimes, work comes first), I will be posting a "Second Round Preview" this afternoon. I'm still working on it, but it's mostly written. Before I do that (and I'll hopefully be posting during the draft--that depends a lot on the girlfriend's plans for the weekend), I thought I'd put up some links to articles worth reading (mostly on the Jared Allen trade) and tell you who I'd have wanted the Vikings to draft if they still had the 17th pick. I think it's worth doing, mainly so that when my top choices go well before the 17th pick, I'll feel even better about the Vikings deal for Allen (if that's even possible).
The First Round Draft Board:
1. Derrick Harvey, DE-Florida
Harvey is the best defensive end available that might actually make it to the 17th pick. Absent Jared Allen, he would have been the clear choice for the Vikings, filling their most glaring need with a talented pass rusher.
2. Ryan Clady, OT-Boise State
Clady might be the best offensive tackle left on the board, now that Jake Long has been signed by the Dolphins. I don't think there's a chance he'll make it to the 17th pick, but if I was the Vikings, and he was there, he would have been an easy choice to fill in for Bryant McKinnie during his suspension and then hopefully replace Ryan Cook at right tackle.
3. Chris Williams, OT-Vanderbilt
Williams is going to be a very, very good left tackle, because he's quick, has long arms and very good technique. His weakness is his strength, which he should be able to improve upon once he gets into an NFL strength program, but that's not as big a deal at left tackle, where most of the players he'd be blocking rely on their speed, not their strength. If the Vikings had picked him, they could have shopped McKinnie and been perfectly comfortable.
4. Jeff Otah, OT-Pittsburgh
Otah is seen as having the highest upside of any tackle on the board. The problem, of course, is that he might not realize his potential. He'd be the riskiest pick of any of the tackles for the Vikings, who likely need someone to fill in for McKinnie this year, and who would, ideally, be able to overtake Ryan Cook for the right tackle position. Otah might end up being the best tackle this draft produces, but he also might not be ready to play this year, which is why he doesn't fit into the Vikings' plans as well.
5. Phillip Merling, DE-Clemson
If Merling wasn't coming off of sports hernia surgery, I'd likely have him higher up on my board. He was able to work out for teams before the draft, but I'm not sure I'd want to take the risk, especially because Merling seems to be more of an Udeze type, rather than someone who can consistently get to the quarterback.
6. Devin Thomas, WR-Michigan State
Thomas is the best wide receiver that might be available to the Vikings, and the only one I'd consider drafting in the first round, mainly because he also has the ability to return punts and kicks. He's raw, and there's questions as to whether his great junior year was a fluke, but he's got all the skills and athleticism a wide receiver needs, and can contribute right away as a punt and kick returner. That being said, wide receivers are a risky pick in the first round.
7. Mike Jenkins, CB-South Florida
You can put Leodis McKelvin, a corner back from Troy or Aqib Talib, a corner back from Kansas (if you don't mind the marijuana use) here as well if you'd like, depending on which one is available. All three seem like they will turn into quality corner backs in the NFL, but the Vikings would have needed a player at a different position more, and likely would have been able to pick up a tackle or defensive end with the seventeenth pick, although McKelvin might have been a sleeper choice if he fell to the Purple, because he is a solid punt returner.
Judging the Allen Deal:
Most people thought the deal was a good one, from the folks at Pacifist Viking, to Gonzo at the Daily Norseman. DC at Grant's Tomb was happy, as was the Vikes Geek and Kevin Seifert and Patrick Reusse from the Star Tribune were quite excited about Zygi Wilf shelling out the cash to bring in Allen. Don Banks from Sports Illustrated likes the deal, especially if, as he reports the Vikings don't have to worry about Allen getting suspended for a year if he doesn't get in trouble before September, although Peter King thinks that Allen would still face a suspension if he violates the NFL Player Conduct Policy. Pro Football Reference used their "approximate value method" to evaluate the deal and they found that Allen is likely to out perform any of the players picked with the choices the Purple gave up and will likely out perform all three of them combined.
Quick Draft Links:
Cold, Hard Football Facts had an article breaking down the success rate of various positions, and found some interesting things out, including the fact that defensive ends chosen in the first round from 1978 had the lowest percentage make the Pro Bowl of any position. They had the sixth best rate of starting for five years for the team that drafted them (a 60% rate). Yet another reason to like the Allen trade--the Vikings might have gotten a starter for five years at defensive end, but odds are they wouldn't have been able to get a Pro Bowler with their first round pick.
Brett Favre is going to be on the cover of Madden '09. Maybe this means he'll come back after Jared Allen hurts Aaron Rogers in the first game, only to get destroyed by the cover curse. Or maybe he'll fade away gracefully into retirement. The former is definitely more likely.
Kissing Suzy Kolber is going to be live blogging the draft, so if you're watching, have a laptop and need some entertainment, definitely go there (after checking to see if I've posted, of course...). Also, fellow Viking fan Big Daddy Drew made a case for watching the Draft that I agree with whole heartedly.
The First Round Draft Board:
1. Derrick Harvey, DE-Florida
Harvey is the best defensive end available that might actually make it to the 17th pick. Absent Jared Allen, he would have been the clear choice for the Vikings, filling their most glaring need with a talented pass rusher.
2. Ryan Clady, OT-Boise State
Clady might be the best offensive tackle left on the board, now that Jake Long has been signed by the Dolphins. I don't think there's a chance he'll make it to the 17th pick, but if I was the Vikings, and he was there, he would have been an easy choice to fill in for Bryant McKinnie during his suspension and then hopefully replace Ryan Cook at right tackle.
3. Chris Williams, OT-Vanderbilt
Williams is going to be a very, very good left tackle, because he's quick, has long arms and very good technique. His weakness is his strength, which he should be able to improve upon once he gets into an NFL strength program, but that's not as big a deal at left tackle, where most of the players he'd be blocking rely on their speed, not their strength. If the Vikings had picked him, they could have shopped McKinnie and been perfectly comfortable.
4. Jeff Otah, OT-Pittsburgh
Otah is seen as having the highest upside of any tackle on the board. The problem, of course, is that he might not realize his potential. He'd be the riskiest pick of any of the tackles for the Vikings, who likely need someone to fill in for McKinnie this year, and who would, ideally, be able to overtake Ryan Cook for the right tackle position. Otah might end up being the best tackle this draft produces, but he also might not be ready to play this year, which is why he doesn't fit into the Vikings' plans as well.
5. Phillip Merling, DE-Clemson
If Merling wasn't coming off of sports hernia surgery, I'd likely have him higher up on my board. He was able to work out for teams before the draft, but I'm not sure I'd want to take the risk, especially because Merling seems to be more of an Udeze type, rather than someone who can consistently get to the quarterback.
6. Devin Thomas, WR-Michigan State
Thomas is the best wide receiver that might be available to the Vikings, and the only one I'd consider drafting in the first round, mainly because he also has the ability to return punts and kicks. He's raw, and there's questions as to whether his great junior year was a fluke, but he's got all the skills and athleticism a wide receiver needs, and can contribute right away as a punt and kick returner. That being said, wide receivers are a risky pick in the first round.
7. Mike Jenkins, CB-South Florida
You can put Leodis McKelvin, a corner back from Troy or Aqib Talib, a corner back from Kansas (if you don't mind the marijuana use) here as well if you'd like, depending on which one is available. All three seem like they will turn into quality corner backs in the NFL, but the Vikings would have needed a player at a different position more, and likely would have been able to pick up a tackle or defensive end with the seventeenth pick, although McKelvin might have been a sleeper choice if he fell to the Purple, because he is a solid punt returner.
Judging the Allen Deal:
Most people thought the deal was a good one, from the folks at Pacifist Viking, to Gonzo at the Daily Norseman. DC at Grant's Tomb was happy, as was the Vikes Geek and Kevin Seifert and Patrick Reusse from the Star Tribune were quite excited about Zygi Wilf shelling out the cash to bring in Allen. Don Banks from Sports Illustrated likes the deal, especially if, as he reports the Vikings don't have to worry about Allen getting suspended for a year if he doesn't get in trouble before September, although Peter King thinks that Allen would still face a suspension if he violates the NFL Player Conduct Policy. Pro Football Reference used their "approximate value method" to evaluate the deal and they found that Allen is likely to out perform any of the players picked with the choices the Purple gave up and will likely out perform all three of them combined.
Quick Draft Links:
Cold, Hard Football Facts had an article breaking down the success rate of various positions, and found some interesting things out, including the fact that defensive ends chosen in the first round from 1978 had the lowest percentage make the Pro Bowl of any position. They had the sixth best rate of starting for five years for the team that drafted them (a 60% rate). Yet another reason to like the Allen trade--the Vikings might have gotten a starter for five years at defensive end, but odds are they wouldn't have been able to get a Pro Bowler with their first round pick.
Brett Favre is going to be on the cover of Madden '09. Maybe this means he'll come back after Jared Allen hurts Aaron Rogers in the first game, only to get destroyed by the cover curse. Or maybe he'll fade away gracefully into retirement. The former is definitely more likely.
Kissing Suzy Kolber is going to be live blogging the draft, so if you're watching, have a laptop and need some entertainment, definitely go there (after checking to see if I've posted, of course...). Also, fellow Viking fan Big Daddy Drew made a case for watching the Draft that I agree with whole heartedly.
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
The Return of the Purple People Eaters
I'll be honest-it took me a while to figure out how to start this post out. And, as you may be able to tell, I failed to come up with anything good. I'm going to cut myself a break here though, since the Vikings just acquired Jared Allen for their first round pick and both of their third round picks and made him the highest paid defensive player in the NFL.
That's right-the Purple now have the best defensive end in the NFL. Yup, that'll go nicely with their two Pro Bowl tackles, two young and talented defensive ends and their Pro Bowl caliber middle linebacker. Obviously Brett Favre knew something we didn't when he retired, because opposing quarterbacks are going to get destroyed when they face the Purple. I don't think I can express how excited I am about being able to finally watch the Purple actually get to opposing quarterbacks, something they haven't really been able to do since I really started following the Vikings in 1998. Heck, my friends and I still have a running joke about Kurt Warner getting in trouble with his "wife" for spending so much time checking out girls in the stands whenever he dropped back to pass against the Vikings in the 1999 playoffs.
But that's all in the past, because a defensive line of Allen, the Williams and Ray Edwards/Brian Robison will be almost impossible to stop. With that kind of pressure, the Vikings secondary is suddenly very good, since they wont have to cover for very long at all. Somehow, I see Darren Sharper's interception totals going up.
Now, I understand people's concerns about this deal. A first round pick and two third round picks is a lot to give up, especially for a player with previous violations of the NFL Personnel Conduct Policy. I discussed the various scenarios that I'd heard in an earlier post, and while I think that Rick Spielman and the Vikings' draft gurus would have been able to turn their third rounders into solid players, the Vikings' success rate with third round picks is very low. Since 2000, the Vikings have drafted Doug Chapman (2000-RB), Eric Kelly (2001-CB), Willie Offord (2002-SS), Nate Burleson (2003-WR), Darrion Scott (2004-DE), Dustin Fox (2005-CB) and Marcus McCauley (2007-CB). Offord was the only one that lasted more than four years with the Vikings, Burleson was the only one that started and McCauley is the only third rounder left on the team. So would I be willing to trade McCauley and Burleson for the right to draft Allen with the 17th pick (which, in essence, is what the Vikings are doing)? I certainly would. And I'd trade Dustin Fox and Doug Chapman for that right in a heartbeat.
And I'm not too worried about the money that the Vikings are shelling out for Allen either. While making him the third highest player in the NFL, with a six year contract worth just under $74 million, with just under $31,000,069 guaranteed is a big deal, the Vikings seem to have the cap room. And I'm willing to trust that Zygi Wilf and the Vikings put an extensive amount of time looking into Allen's claims that he hasn't had a drink since his second DUI in 2006 and his character and believe he's reformed. It is their money after all.
The Vikings now have a Super Bowl caliber pass defense. They already had a Super Bowl caliber run defense and running attack. If Tarvaris Jackson can become a league average quarterback, they are a Super Bowl contender, something they haven't been able to say going into the season in a long time. It's going to be a really fun season, that's for sure.
[I'm going to try and have a profile of the wide receivers the Vikings might draft in the second round up this afternoon, so check back and find out what the Purple might do with the only draft pick they have left in the first three rounds.]
That's right-the Purple now have the best defensive end in the NFL. Yup, that'll go nicely with their two Pro Bowl tackles, two young and talented defensive ends and their Pro Bowl caliber middle linebacker. Obviously Brett Favre knew something we didn't when he retired, because opposing quarterbacks are going to get destroyed when they face the Purple. I don't think I can express how excited I am about being able to finally watch the Purple actually get to opposing quarterbacks, something they haven't really been able to do since I really started following the Vikings in 1998. Heck, my friends and I still have a running joke about Kurt Warner getting in trouble with his "wife" for spending so much time checking out girls in the stands whenever he dropped back to pass against the Vikings in the 1999 playoffs.
But that's all in the past, because a defensive line of Allen, the Williams and Ray Edwards/Brian Robison will be almost impossible to stop. With that kind of pressure, the Vikings secondary is suddenly very good, since they wont have to cover for very long at all. Somehow, I see Darren Sharper's interception totals going up.
Now, I understand people's concerns about this deal. A first round pick and two third round picks is a lot to give up, especially for a player with previous violations of the NFL Personnel Conduct Policy. I discussed the various scenarios that I'd heard in an earlier post, and while I think that Rick Spielman and the Vikings' draft gurus would have been able to turn their third rounders into solid players, the Vikings' success rate with third round picks is very low. Since 2000, the Vikings have drafted Doug Chapman (2000-RB), Eric Kelly (2001-CB), Willie Offord (2002-SS), Nate Burleson (2003-WR), Darrion Scott (2004-DE), Dustin Fox (2005-CB) and Marcus McCauley (2007-CB). Offord was the only one that lasted more than four years with the Vikings, Burleson was the only one that started and McCauley is the only third rounder left on the team. So would I be willing to trade McCauley and Burleson for the right to draft Allen with the 17th pick (which, in essence, is what the Vikings are doing)? I certainly would. And I'd trade Dustin Fox and Doug Chapman for that right in a heartbeat.
And I'm not too worried about the money that the Vikings are shelling out for Allen either. While making him the third highest player in the NFL, with a six year contract worth just under $74 million, with just under $31,000,069 guaranteed is a big deal, the Vikings seem to have the cap room. And I'm willing to trust that Zygi Wilf and the Vikings put an extensive amount of time looking into Allen's claims that he hasn't had a drink since his second DUI in 2006 and his character and believe he's reformed. It is their money after all.
The Vikings now have a Super Bowl caliber pass defense. They already had a Super Bowl caliber run defense and running attack. If Tarvaris Jackson can become a league average quarterback, they are a Super Bowl contender, something they haven't been able to say going into the season in a long time. It's going to be a really fun season, that's for sure.
[I'm going to try and have a profile of the wide receivers the Vikings might draft in the second round up this afternoon, so check back and find out what the Purple might do with the only draft pick they have left in the first three rounds.]
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
How Jared Allen Ruined the Draft
Unlike some Vikings' fans, I wasn't having any trouble getting excited about the draft. I can understand why some Vikings' fans might not be too excited, but I like thinking about and debating various draft prospects, and strategies, even when they're somewhat unexciting, like a left tackle, or a safety. And its hard to get excited for the seventeenth pick, with so many variables built in, unlike last year, when it was just a matter of deciding which of the top seven players you liked best.
That all changed when the news broke about Jared Allen. Once I realized that acquiring Allen was a strong possibility, it became too hard to care about whether Derrick Harvey will fall to the seventeenth pick, or if the Vikings would pass on a stud tackle, like Chris Williams, in favor of a player that fits their need, but has just under gone surgery (Phillip Merling). I don't really want to go through possible second round picks, because I'd rather the Vikings give up their second rounder if it meant adding a proven star at defensive end. It's not easy doing a write up on second round defensive backs that might improve the Vikings secondary when you'd rather have Allen improve the Vikings secondary by consistently getting to the quarterback.
Jared Allen is the piece that can transform the Vikings' pass defense from a lower tier unit (23rd overall in defensive passer rating) into one of the best in the league. That would give the Vikings the best running offense, the best running defense and one of the best passing defenses. All that would need to happen at that point for the Vikings to be a legit Super Bowl contender, is for Tarvaris Jackson to turn into an average quarterback, something that should be easy to do when he's throwing the ball to Bernard Berrian, Sidney Rice and Bobby Wade (I'm serious. If the Giants and their average secondary, average quarterback, good running game and amazing defensive line can win the Super Bowl, so can the Vikings). For the Vikings to be Super Bowl contenders without Allen, they'd need a lot more to go right besides Tarvaris Jackson improving. And that's why I'm not excited about the draft any more and why I'm going to be really angry if the Chiefs aren't reasonable (Someone please explain to me how the #17 pick, the 73rd pick and next year's second round pick isn't reasonable) and the Vikings don't end up with Allen playing right end for them next year.
That all changed when the news broke about Jared Allen. Once I realized that acquiring Allen was a strong possibility, it became too hard to care about whether Derrick Harvey will fall to the seventeenth pick, or if the Vikings would pass on a stud tackle, like Chris Williams, in favor of a player that fits their need, but has just under gone surgery (Phillip Merling). I don't really want to go through possible second round picks, because I'd rather the Vikings give up their second rounder if it meant adding a proven star at defensive end. It's not easy doing a write up on second round defensive backs that might improve the Vikings secondary when you'd rather have Allen improve the Vikings secondary by consistently getting to the quarterback.
Jared Allen is the piece that can transform the Vikings' pass defense from a lower tier unit (23rd overall in defensive passer rating) into one of the best in the league. That would give the Vikings the best running offense, the best running defense and one of the best passing defenses. All that would need to happen at that point for the Vikings to be a legit Super Bowl contender, is for Tarvaris Jackson to turn into an average quarterback, something that should be easy to do when he's throwing the ball to Bernard Berrian, Sidney Rice and Bobby Wade (I'm serious. If the Giants and their average secondary, average quarterback, good running game and amazing defensive line can win the Super Bowl, so can the Vikings). For the Vikings to be Super Bowl contenders without Allen, they'd need a lot more to go right besides Tarvaris Jackson improving. And that's why I'm not excited about the draft any more and why I'm going to be really angry if the Chiefs aren't reasonable (Someone please explain to me how the #17 pick, the 73rd pick and next year's second round pick isn't reasonable) and the Vikings don't end up with Allen playing right end for them next year.
Monday, April 21, 2008
The Cost of Jared Allen
As you probably know, Jared Allen did not become a Viking prior to leaving
Since the contract doesn't seem to be the problem, the Chiefs' demands are the most likely hang up. It seems they want a first and second rounder, while the Vikings are offering a first and a third. My guess is the Chiefs are hoping to create a bidding war between the Purple and
I wrote about Allen on Friday, and he is unquestionably one of the top defensive ends in the league. He's only 26 years old, has 43 sacks in his four years and is good at stopping the run. There's the matter of his two DUI's, but the more I read about him, the less worried I become, and the Vikings don't seem too worried about it either, or they wouldn't have offered him the money they did.
So we know what we'd be getting. The question, what would we be giving up? The following table has all of the Vikings' first, second and third round picks for the last five years.
| | 1st Round | 2nd Round | 3rd Round |
| 2007 | Adrian Peterson (7) | Sidney Rice (44) | Marcus McCauley (72) |
| 2006 | | Cedric Griffin (48), Ryan Cook (51), Tarvaris Jackson (64) | None |
| 2005 | Troy Williamson (7), Erasmus James (17) | Marcus Johnson (49) | Dustin Fox (80) |
| 2004 | Kenechi Udeze (20) | Dontarrious Thomas (48) | Darrion Scott (88) |
| 2003 | Kevin Williams (9) | E.J. Henderson (40) | Nate Burleson (71) |
They've made six first round picks, seven second round picks and four third round picks. Of their first round choices, two are Pro Bowl caliber players (Peterson and Williams), two are starters (Greenway and Udeze), one was a backup and traded (Williamson) and one hasn't played much because of injury (James). Their second round choices have yielded two Pro Caliber players (Rice and Henderson), one starter (Griffin), two average to mediocre starters (Cook and Jackson), one backup (Johnson) and one backup that's no longer on the team (Thomas). Their third round selections have yielded one starter (Burleson) that's no longer on the team, one current backup (McCauley) and one backup that's no longer no the team (Scott) and one player that didn't play a down before being cut (Fox).
So, aside from learning that the 2003 draft was as good as the 2005 draft was bad, what does this exercise tell us about the value of a draft pick? Well, it shows why the Vikings are so hesitant to give up a second round pick. Second round picks have given the Vikings their starting quarterback, middle linebacker, left tackle and a starter at corner back and wide receiver. The best the Vikings have been able to do in the third round is Nate Burleson, who gave them a season with 1000 yards receiving, but was only with the team for three years, and was mediocre for two of them. The other players are backups and only McCauley, who the jury is still out on, is left on the team.
It also shows that, if the Chiefs refuse to make a deal, signing Allen to an offer sheet might be worth it. While the Purple would lose their first round picks in 2009 and 2010, they would still have their second round picks, which have produced almost as many good players for the Purple as the first rounders. Of course, it would only be justifiable if the Vikings believe they are going to be really good this year and next year, since they've shown the ability to turn top ten picks into superstars (aside from the travesty that was the Troy Williamson pick). The other thing an offer sheet provides them is the ability to leverage the Chiefs into accepting a first and third rounder for Allen, since they seem to be placing a premium on getting something for him now, rather than down the road.
If the Vikings can get Allen for a first and third round pick in this year's draft, they need to do so. If not, the difference between giving up a first and second round pick this year and a first round pick the next two years isn't as big as it seems. Adding two more quality players, along with Allen, to this year's team could be enough to get the Vikings deep into the playoffs and the players that they'd be giving up the chance to draft in first round of the 2009 and the 2010 draft won't necessarily be better than the ones the ones they'd be able to draft this year with their first and second round pick. If the Chiefs won't budge, then it might be worth it to sign Allen to an offer sheet that the Chiefs can't match after the draft and load up this year. Of course, the viability of that plan depends a lot on whether Tarvaris Jackson can turn into a real quarterback, because if not, the Purple will have a very hard time finding a viable replacement for him without their first round picks in 2009 and 2010.
Thursday, April 17, 2008
Links: New Schedule, Draft News and Gus Ferrotte
With the draft next Saturday, there's been a lot going on in the world of the NFL. The schedule was released on Tuesday to the kind of fanfare that was meant to remind you that the NFL is the undisputed king of sports. ESPN spent two hours breaking down the schedule, picking out games to watch, making predictions about teams strength of schedule and generally wasting everyone's time. I understand blogs about NFL teams and NFL focused sites writing about the schedule. But a two hour special on ESPN!? There wasn't a baseball game they could show? Or maybe some more draft speculation? What about the Strong Man Competition? Do they still have the rights to that? Seriously folks, trying to divine any meaning from the NFL schedule right now is pretty much a waste of time. I'm not the only one that feels that way either.
And now that I've trashed those who wrote about the schedule, if you want some thoughts on it, Gonzo broke it down at the Daily Norseman, wwtb? wrote about it at Pacifist Viking, and the writers at Access Vikings spilled some pixels analyzing it as well.
(And if you're wondering, I think the Vikings' schedule looks rough to start with, has some challenges in the middle and gets easy at the end. I fully expect them to be in the drivers seat for a playoff berth or division title coming down the stretch. And I fully expect them to blow it. They're finishing 1-2 or 0-3 if they have a shot at the playoffs. It's what the Vikings do.)
For those who prefer reading about something that is actually relevant sometime soon, there are a host of articles on the draft, and, of course, a ton of mock drafts.
Michael Lombardi, who is described in his bio at SI.com as a veteran of 22 years in NFL personnel offices, has an interesting article on how teams actually look to mock drafts for information. It's kind of crazy to think that without them, Jerry Rice may have spent his Hall of Fame career in a different uniform.
Pro Football Talk has an article about how teams are changing the tables they use to assign draft picks value due to the rising costs of top 5 draft picks. Those value tables are a large reason why there have been so few teams willing to trade up, as they assigned values to top picks that no team was willing to pay. I don't know whether the new tables will lead to more trades, but it certainly seems to make them more likely.
For those of you who would like to see the Vikings take a quarterback in the first three rounds, Football Outsiders has an interesting article on Chad Henne. Personnally, I don't think it would be a good idea to draft a quarterback that high, but as Gonzo wrote, it's probably a given that the Purple will draft a quarterback.
I probably shouldn't tell you this, since I've been relying on these videos for my own profiles, but if you're interested, SI.com has video of their top 200 draft prospects.
There's also been some new (negative) information that's come out recently about players the Vikings might be considering drafting in the first round. Malcolm Kelly ran an awful 4.63 forty at his workout, and then threw the Oklahoma staff under the bus, though he's going to have another work out. And Aqib Talib and Mario Manningham didn't help their draft prospects by admitting to smoking pot in college, which is why I didn't end up profiling either of them.
L.A. has a new stadium proposal. If L.A. builds a new stadium, it's not going to look good for the Vikings chances of staying in Minnesota, unless they get a new stadium build. That being said, Grant's Tomb thinks that the Purple aren't going anywhere. Which works for me.
Finally, the Vikings signed Gus Frerotte to be their back up quarterback. The ideal back up quarterback for a young starter, like Tarvaris Jackson, is a veteran that is content with the role, can mentor the young quarterbacks on the roster and can step in and provide decent play for a game or two. Frerotte's got the first two down, but his play on the field will likely be Bollinger/Holcombe bad. So, not the best signing, but since neither Sage Rosenfels or J.P. Lohsman are available, he was probably the best available option.
And now that I've trashed those who wrote about the schedule, if you want some thoughts on it, Gonzo broke it down at the Daily Norseman, wwtb? wrote about it at Pacifist Viking, and the writers at Access Vikings spilled some pixels analyzing it as well.
(And if you're wondering, I think the Vikings' schedule looks rough to start with, has some challenges in the middle and gets easy at the end. I fully expect them to be in the drivers seat for a playoff berth or division title coming down the stretch. And I fully expect them to blow it. They're finishing 1-2 or 0-3 if they have a shot at the playoffs. It's what the Vikings do.)
For those who prefer reading about something that is actually relevant sometime soon, there are a host of articles on the draft, and, of course, a ton of mock drafts.
Michael Lombardi, who is described in his bio at SI.com as a veteran of 22 years in NFL personnel offices, has an interesting article on how teams actually look to mock drafts for information. It's kind of crazy to think that without them, Jerry Rice may have spent his Hall of Fame career in a different uniform.
Pro Football Talk has an article about how teams are changing the tables they use to assign draft picks value due to the rising costs of top 5 draft picks. Those value tables are a large reason why there have been so few teams willing to trade up, as they assigned values to top picks that no team was willing to pay. I don't know whether the new tables will lead to more trades, but it certainly seems to make them more likely.
For those of you who would like to see the Vikings take a quarterback in the first three rounds, Football Outsiders has an interesting article on Chad Henne. Personnally, I don't think it would be a good idea to draft a quarterback that high, but as Gonzo wrote, it's probably a given that the Purple will draft a quarterback.
I probably shouldn't tell you this, since I've been relying on these videos for my own profiles, but if you're interested, SI.com has video of their top 200 draft prospects.
There's also been some new (negative) information that's come out recently about players the Vikings might be considering drafting in the first round. Malcolm Kelly ran an awful 4.63 forty at his workout, and then threw the Oklahoma staff under the bus, though he's going to have another work out. And Aqib Talib and Mario Manningham didn't help their draft prospects by admitting to smoking pot in college, which is why I didn't end up profiling either of them.
L.A. has a new stadium proposal. If L.A. builds a new stadium, it's not going to look good for the Vikings chances of staying in Minnesota, unless they get a new stadium build. That being said, Grant's Tomb thinks that the Purple aren't going anywhere. Which works for me.
Finally, the Vikings signed Gus Frerotte to be their back up quarterback. The ideal back up quarterback for a young starter, like Tarvaris Jackson, is a veteran that is content with the role, can mentor the young quarterbacks on the roster and can step in and provide decent play for a game or two. Frerotte's got the first two down, but his play on the field will likely be Bollinger/Holcombe bad. So, not the best signing, but since neither Sage Rosenfels or J.P. Lohsman are available, he was probably the best available option.
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Solving Our Problems: Second Round Defensive Ends
If the Vikings don't take a defensive end in the first round, they're going to have to consider taking one in the second round. Whether there will be one worth drafting with the 47th pick, is a whole 'nother question. There are three defensive ends who look like second round picks, Calais Campbell, a junior from Miami, Quentin Groves, a senior from Auburn, and Cliff Avril, a senior from Purdue. Don't be surprised to see Lawrence Jackson from USC go in the second round as well.
Calais Cambell- 6'8", 282 LBs, Miami
Campbell looked like a top 15 pick after his sophomore year, where he dominated the ACC, racking up 10.5 sacks and 20.5 tackles for a loss. He was living up to his hype as the favorite for the Ted Hendricks award through his first 5 games, with 4.5 sacks and 7 TFL. He fell off dramatically after that, only getting 1.5 more sacks and 5.5 more TFL through the last 6 games. His size, reach, athleticism, tackling, motor and quickness all scream "First Rounder", but his fall off in production, tendency to play too high and mediocre showing at the Combine (5.04 forty, 7.45 second 3 cone drill) mean he'll likely fall to the second round. How far he'll fall is the question, but he'd be a good choice for the Purple if they think his junior year was the real Campbell.
Quentin Groves-6'3", 250 LBs, Auburn
With the recent revelation that he had heart surgery, Groves is now damaged goods. He is the all time sack leader at Auburn, has the speed, quickness and strength to be a force coming off of the edge, but he also had a heart condition serious enough to warrant surgery. Any team looking to draft him had better trust their medical staff to check him out properly before drafting him, that's for sure. Groves might not be the best fit for the Purple, since, at 250 pounds, he's small for a 4-3 defensive end, and would likely have trouble going one on one every play with the much bigger NFL offensive tackles, especially since he has a limited repertoire of moves. He'd be a much better fit at outside linebacker in a 3-4, but with his speed and quickness (he ran a 4.57 forty and a 4.42 20 yard shuttle), its not unreasonable to think he could be a poor man's version of Javon Kearse (Kearse is only 263 lbs). He wasn't as quick in the 3 cone drill, running it in 7.31 seconds (6.90 seconds was the best time), so he might not be as quick as he'd need to be to play as an undersized defensive end.
Cliff Avril--6'3", 252 LBs, Purdue
Like Groves, Avril has the skills and speed to be an undersized speed rusher, but would likely be better as a linebacker. Unlike Groves, however, Avril's didn't start playing defensive end until part of the way through his junior year. Once he moved, however, he flourished, racking up 6 sacks his junior year and 6.5 sacks as a senior. He also caused six fumbles in his two years and had 30 tackles for a loss. He's exceptionally quick, running the fastest 3 cone drill by a defensive lineman (6.90 seconds) and his time would have put him in the top ten amongst running backs and linebackers as well. Avril has the burst to get by offensive linemen, and while he will likely struggle against NFL tackles that he can't get by with his quickness, he has some good pass rush moves, and can use his hands to keep blockers off his body and get separation. He has trouble against double teams as well, but that shouldn't be much of a problem on the Vikings' defensive line. He's decent against the run, but had some problem bringing down the bigger backs he faced.
Lawrence Jackson, 6'5", 268 LBs, USC
Jackson's a hard working end from USC that has injury and consistency concerns. He plays the run well, and when he's hot, he can be a pass rushing force. He has the quickness you want in a defense end, running a 4.40 2o yard shuttle and a 7.08 second 3 cone drill (both were top ten amongst defensive lineman at the combine), but his motor is questionable, and he seems to disappear for long stretches of time. When he's playing well, he keeps separation, displaying good pass rush moves and fights through blocks. When he isn't, he can be controlled relatively easily. He was on a lot his senior year, racking up 10.5 sacks and 17 TFL, but it needs to be mentioned that he also shared the line with a dominant partner, possible top 5 pick, Sedrick Ellis. Jackson has also been compared by scouts to Kenechi Udeze, which isn't bad, but isn't exactly the highest compliment for a pass rusher.
Calais Cambell- 6'8", 282 LBs, Miami
Campbell looked like a top 15 pick after his sophomore year, where he dominated the ACC, racking up 10.5 sacks and 20.5 tackles for a loss. He was living up to his hype as the favorite for the Ted Hendricks award through his first 5 games, with 4.5 sacks and 7 TFL. He fell off dramatically after that, only getting 1.5 more sacks and 5.5 more TFL through the last 6 games. His size, reach, athleticism, tackling, motor and quickness all scream "First Rounder", but his fall off in production, tendency to play too high and mediocre showing at the Combine (5.04 forty, 7.45 second 3 cone drill) mean he'll likely fall to the second round. How far he'll fall is the question, but he'd be a good choice for the Purple if they think his junior year was the real Campbell.
Quentin Groves-6'3", 250 LBs, Auburn
With the recent revelation that he had heart surgery, Groves is now damaged goods. He is the all time sack leader at Auburn, has the speed, quickness and strength to be a force coming off of the edge, but he also had a heart condition serious enough to warrant surgery. Any team looking to draft him had better trust their medical staff to check him out properly before drafting him, that's for sure. Groves might not be the best fit for the Purple, since, at 250 pounds, he's small for a 4-3 defensive end, and would likely have trouble going one on one every play with the much bigger NFL offensive tackles, especially since he has a limited repertoire of moves. He'd be a much better fit at outside linebacker in a 3-4, but with his speed and quickness (he ran a 4.57 forty and a 4.42 20 yard shuttle), its not unreasonable to think he could be a poor man's version of Javon Kearse (Kearse is only 263 lbs). He wasn't as quick in the 3 cone drill, running it in 7.31 seconds (6.90 seconds was the best time), so he might not be as quick as he'd need to be to play as an undersized defensive end.
Cliff Avril--6'3", 252 LBs, Purdue
Like Groves, Avril has the skills and speed to be an undersized speed rusher, but would likely be better as a linebacker. Unlike Groves, however, Avril's didn't start playing defensive end until part of the way through his junior year. Once he moved, however, he flourished, racking up 6 sacks his junior year and 6.5 sacks as a senior. He also caused six fumbles in his two years and had 30 tackles for a loss. He's exceptionally quick, running the fastest 3 cone drill by a defensive lineman (6.90 seconds) and his time would have put him in the top ten amongst running backs and linebackers as well. Avril has the burst to get by offensive linemen, and while he will likely struggle against NFL tackles that he can't get by with his quickness, he has some good pass rush moves, and can use his hands to keep blockers off his body and get separation. He has trouble against double teams as well, but that shouldn't be much of a problem on the Vikings' defensive line. He's decent against the run, but had some problem bringing down the bigger backs he faced.
Lawrence Jackson, 6'5", 268 LBs, USC
Jackson's a hard working end from USC that has injury and consistency concerns. He plays the run well, and when he's hot, he can be a pass rushing force. He has the quickness you want in a defense end, running a 4.40 2o yard shuttle and a 7.08 second 3 cone drill (both were top ten amongst defensive lineman at the combine), but his motor is questionable, and he seems to disappear for long stretches of time. When he's playing well, he keeps separation, displaying good pass rush moves and fights through blocks. When he isn't, he can be controlled relatively easily. He was on a lot his senior year, racking up 10.5 sacks and 17 TFL, but it needs to be mentioned that he also shared the line with a dominant partner, possible top 5 pick, Sedrick Ellis. Jackson has also been compared by scouts to Kenechi Udeze, which isn't bad, but isn't exactly the highest compliment for a pass rusher.
Monday, April 14, 2008
Solving Our Problems-Second Round Tight Ends
Unless anyone has any requests for profiles, I'm going to move on to the second round, which will likely be the most interesting round for the Vikings. I could see them drafting a defensive end, an offensive tackle, a corner back, a safety, a tight end or a wide receiver. I could also see them taking a quarterback, but if they picked one that high, it'd be an admission that the Tarvaris Revolution was a failure, something I doubt they're ready to do. I wouldn't be surprised to see them take a quarterback in the later rounds, however, and see if they can catch Brady lightning in a bottle.
But I digress. One of the positional needs the Vikings could address in the second round is tight end. The passing game Brad Childress runs becomes a lot more potent with an effective tight end, something the Vikings did not have last year. Visanthe Siancoe only caught 27 passes for 323 yards and 1 touchdown, dropped some key catches, and generally didn't provide the value that the Vikings wanted from the position, with only a -10.9% DVOA and 0.5 DPAR. Luckily for the Purple, there are three good tight ends who might be available to them in the second round, Dustin Keller from Purdue, Martellus Bennett from Texas A & M and John Carlson from Notre Dame.
Dustin Keller, 6'3", 242 LBs, Purdue
Keller is a great athlete, with the strength you'd want from a lineman (2nd best bench press at the combine) and the body control and speed of a receiver. He's a little small for a tight end, but he's about the same size as Chris Cooley, so his height isn't that big of a deal. He has great speed for a tight end, running the fastest forty by a tight end at the combine (4.55 seconds) and has the agility and change of direction that you'd want out of a receiver, with a 4.14 second 20 yard shuttle, best amongst tight ends and better than all but three wide receivers. He's also shown the ability to make big plays after the catch, using his speed, strength and agility to break tackles and make defenders miss. He doesn't run the best routes though, and his hands are good, not great, as he didn't bring in every catch he should have. Still, he caught 68 passes for 881 yards and 7 touchdowns his senior year. His blocking needs a lot of work, however, as he doesn't attack defenders so much as catch them, and his cut blocking is sub par. Keller also has had some nagging injuries in college, but he was always willing to play through pain, showing off some of the intangibles that you want, and his work ethic and leadership skills are top notch.
But I digress. One of the positional needs the Vikings could address in the second round is tight end. The passing game Brad Childress runs becomes a lot more potent with an effective tight end, something the Vikings did not have last year. Visanthe Siancoe only caught 27 passes for 323 yards and 1 touchdown, dropped some key catches, and generally didn't provide the value that the Vikings wanted from the position, with only a -10.9% DVOA and 0.5 DPAR. Luckily for the Purple, there are three good tight ends who might be available to them in the second round, Dustin Keller from Purdue, Martellus Bennett from Texas A & M and John Carlson from Notre Dame.
Dustin Keller, 6'3", 242 LBs, Purdue
Keller is a great athlete, with the strength you'd want from a lineman (2nd best bench press at the combine) and the body control and speed of a receiver. He's a little small for a tight end, but he's about the same size as Chris Cooley, so his height isn't that big of a deal. He has great speed for a tight end, running the fastest forty by a tight end at the combine (4.55 seconds) and has the agility and change of direction that you'd want out of a receiver, with a 4.14 second 20 yard shuttle, best amongst tight ends and better than all but three wide receivers. He's also shown the ability to make big plays after the catch, using his speed, strength and agility to break tackles and make defenders miss. He doesn't run the best routes though, and his hands are good, not great, as he didn't bring in every catch he should have. Still, he caught 68 passes for 881 yards and 7 touchdowns his senior year. His blocking needs a lot of work, however, as he doesn't attack defenders so much as catch them, and his cut blocking is sub par. Keller also has had some nagging injuries in college, but he was always willing to play through pain, showing off some of the intangibles that you want, and his work ethic and leadership skills are top notch.
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