Killing Time: Quarterbacks, HOF and Statistics

• Randball has a list of all the possible quarterback acquisitions the Vikings could make, while Defensive Indifference has a defense of Tarvaris Jackson (Seriously). I actually think he makes some good points, and I'm not opposed to the Vikings opening training camp with Tarvaris Jackson as a possible starting quarterback, providing they also acquire a real veteran quarterback to challenge him (say, Matt Hasselbeck or Jeff Garcia, instead of Gus Frerotte or Kelly Holcombe). I actually think Hasselbeck might be the best option available to the Vikings, if he's available for a 2nd rounder, even though he had his worst season this year. I think a lot of that had to do with his injury and the injuries suffered by his offense.

• Three former Vikings were named Hall of Fame finalists: Chris Carter, Randel McDaniel and John Randle. I have to say, I don't think any of them deserve to go into the Hall of Fame this year. I'm not sure Randle's career is quite at the level necessary for the Hall, and Carter and McDaniel deserved to go in last year (or, really, any year since they've become eligible.

• Advanced NFL Stats on the difficulties of measuring and modeling football statistically. I'm not a big enough statistics guy to work on this stuff on my own, but I do understand it enough to use them (and understand whether they're worth using). I think they're important because the stats that are currently used are so obviously flawed (measuring defenses by yards per game, or quarterbacks by yards per completion, or yards per attempts without counting sacks as attempts, for example). Over the past season, more statistical sites have emerged, outside of Cold, Hard, Football Facts (which really isn't an advanced statistical site as much as an alternative statistical site) and Football Outsiders. I thinks that great, because it means there's more people providing me information on football and the Vikings, but it's also important that everyone understand how hard it is figure out the NFL statistically.

• Pacifist Viking defends the Purple's defensive performance the last three years. And the man is right--the Vikings were a good defense in 2006, above average in 2007 and an elite unit in 2008, depending on how good they were at defending the pass. They were 15th in DVOA against the pass in 2006, 23rd in 2007 and 5th in 2008. The interesting thing is that the secondary may have been at it's best in 2006, because the Vikings pass rush was at its worst in 2006, when it was 31st in the NFL in adjusted sack rate. The pass rush has gotten better the past two years, going up to 28th in 2007 (but the secondary wasn't as good) and becoming elite this year, finishing 2nd in ASR.
  

• A clear message has been sent about the Vikings' 2006 draft, by the Vikings themselves (as Grant's Tomb points out). They don't think they did that good of a job with their picks.
  

• Finally, Adrian Peterson has been named a finalist for the 2008 FedEx Air & Ground NFL Players of the Year Award. The winner is determined by fan vote, and if Peterson wins, the Safe Kids Coalition in Minneapolis gets $25,000, so its definitely worth the 30 seconds it takes to vote.
  

Killing Time: Win Expectancy, the Wild Card and the Return of Dontarrius

• Gridironmine figured out the play by play win expectancy for Sunday's game (something they've been doing for the entire season). Personally, I love win expectancy--there are very few ways to figure out the importance of a play. For example, the pass interference call changed the win expectancy 47% in the Vikings favor. Another good example--the Lions had an 85% chance of winning (their highest of the game) when they had the ball at 3rd and 1 on the Vikings' 44 with 5:33 left in the game. Without Kevin Williams stopping Justin Felton for no gain, the Purple probably lose.

• Defensive Indifference and Grant's Tomb on the game.

• The NFC East may not have surrendered the crown of "Best Division" with three losses this week, but the Cowboys, Giants and Redskins' losses created an opening for a team from another division to grab a wild card spot. I think it'll require the right 10-6 record (with most of the 6 losses to AFC teams), but I wouldn't be surprised to see the second wild card team come from the NFC South (or maybe, just maybe the NFC North. And there I go being unrealistically optimistic again. But the Vikings are 3-1 against the NFC...). I definitely would not be surprised if the Cowboys missed the playoffs, especially with Brad Johnson at quarterback for 4 games. It might just be me, but I don't see him matching Tony Romo's 7.94 yards per pass attempt.

• Speaking of Brad Johnson, Kevin Seifert has a breakdown of his final year in Minnesota. Let's just say it's not a favorable breakdown for Brad Childress' coaching style.

• Was Brad Childress' decision to kick the extra point on Sunday a good one? I'm not actually sure. On one hand, it's not a bad idea to ensure you'll only need to score once, even if the other team scores a touchdown (there was no way the Lions would go for two). On the other, the Vikings' offense was playing horrible (and needed an iffy pass interference call to get the field goal they needed). I'm pretty sure that the decision came down to Childress' confidence in the KAO, along with some concerns about a possible punt return touchdown or another big play for a touchdown putting the game out of reach. I'm not going to complain to much about the decision, mainly because I don't think it's too unreasonable to expect the Vikings' offense (or defense, via a turnover) to get in field goal range with 20 minutes remaining in the game and because I don't think the Vikings would have completed the two point conversion.

• Dontarrius Thomas is a Viking again. He's an upgrade over Vinny Circiu at middle linebacker, but no matter what happens (there really aren't a whole lot of available options at MLB in Week 6), the loss of E.J. Henderson is a big one for the Vikings and it makes it less likely that the Vikings' defense can carry the team to the playoffs.
  

• Football Outsiders on why Adrian Peterson's performance on Sunday was a lot worse than you'd think, even after factoring in the two fumbles (and, in a related post, Smarter Stats on why a rushing title doesn't mean a running back had the best season). Also, according to their statistics, Gus Frerotte's performance on Sunday was the 6th worst by a quarterback. Bernard Berrian's performance, however, was the 5th best of any wide receiver.
  

Punting, Big Plays and the Pass Rush

• The Vikings currently have the worst special teams unit in the NFL, ranking last in DVOA. Naturally, Brad Childress has chosen to react to this by bringing in random people to challenge Chris Kluwe for the punting job. Obviously, Kluwe had an awful game against the Saints. That being said, an equal amount of blame needs to be placed on the coverage unit. Kluwe's one of the better punters in the NFL. He didn't look like it on Monday Night, but it doesn't matter if you have Ray Guy punting for you if your entire cover unit has no lane discipline and lets themselves get blocked.

• Unlike last year, when the Vikings were tied for fifth in "Net Big Plays" at +18 (and had the second most big plays, behind only San Diego, with 61), the Purple this year have given up more big plays than they've made and are currently tied for 22nd, with a -3 Net Big Plays. The problem isn't because they aren't making big plays, however (they're tied for 5th with 17), it's because they're giving them up at an almost alarming rate of four per game. The 20 they've given up is the second most in the NFL (behind only the 49ers) and almost half of the 43 they gave up in 16 games last year. Luckily for the Vikings, the Lions are among the worst at making big plays, and are tied with the Dolphin for last, with only 5. Detroit's net is the worst in the NFL as well, at -13.
  

• Despite bringing in Jared Allen, the Vikings' pass rush remains below average, and has actually been about the same as it was last year. The Purple had an adjusted sack rate of 5.5% last year. This year, it's 5.6%. Now, that doesn't factor in the fact that the Vikings have faced two quarterbacks who are almost impossible to bring down due to their quick releases. Peyton Manning has only been sacked 2.8% of the time he's dropped back to pass in his career, and Drew Brees' sack rate is 3.9% (remember, everyone was excited about Frerotte's low career sack rate of 6.0%). Luckily, they don't have to worry about Jon Kitna's ability to get rid of the ball quickly--his sack rate with the Lions is 9.2% (assuming he's able to play despite his back injury, which happened during one of the 15 times he's been sacked this year).

• If you're looking for a reason not to trust Football Outsiders' stats, I've got one for you--Gus Frerotte is 12th in DYAR and 11th in DVOA among quarterbacks so far. He's ahead of Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisburger and his soulmate, Kerry Collins. I have a feeling this will work itself out--as I said during the game, while Gus Frerotte has been a better quarterback than Tarvaris Jackson so far, he's by no means been a good quarterback.
  

• The Vikings are the only team in the division to beat a team above .500 so far. They're also the only team to beat two teams in the top 15 in DVOA. Chicago's the only NFC North team to beat a top 5 DVOA team, however, with their win against the Eagles and both Chicago (11th) and Green Bay (18th) have a higher DVOA than the Vikings (19th).

Killing Time: Lions Week!

It's Lions Week now! You know what that means--the Vikings get to play one of the worst teams in the NFL! Whooooooooooooo!!!!

Yes, I'm excited for the Lions to turn the ball over 5 times, let Adrian Peterson run for 150 yards and for the Vikings to get back to .500. How about you? While we're waiting for the inevitable blowout, let's see what's going on around these here internets.

• Antoine Winfield--Defensive Player of the Week. Winfield has unquestionably been the Vikings' Defensive MVP so far this year and it's not unreasonable to believe he's the overall MVP either. That snow storm that kept Winfield here until he signed was a God send--I hope it gets a bonus at some point. Jon Kitna and Kevin Seifert agree--Winfield is one of the best cornerbacks in the league (buying his jersey was definitely one my best decisions).
  

• It's all the more important that Winfield continue to play like this, now that E.J. Henderson is out for the season. Kevin Seifert has a short, but good piece on how important E.J. Henderson is to the Purple's defense. He's right--E.J. Henderson might have been the best player on the defense, which says a lot when you consider that defense includes the Williams, Antoine Winfield and Jared Allen. Ben Leber and Chad Greenway are going to have to step up, or the defense is going to run into some serious problems.
  

• According to Football Outsiders, the Vikings have a 25.3% chance of making the playoffs this year, up from 24.0% before Monday night's game. History tells us that 19.4% of 2-3 teams have made the playoffs in a 17 week season, but that doesn't factor in talent, performance or the remaining schedule. History also tells us that if the Vikings beat the Lions, they'll have a 40.0% chance of making the playoffs, but if they lose to the Lions, they'll only have a 8.7% chance of making it. That last number, of course, does not factor in the likely improvement Leslie Frazier would bring as head coach.

• Speaking of stats, Smarter Statistics argues for the use of advanced statistics in the NFL.

• Advanced NFL Stats has the Win Probability graph from Monday night's game. Unsurprisingly, it looks like a cardiograph.
  

A Tale of Two Lines

The Vikings-Titans match up will feature two of the most hyped defensive lines coming into the season. We all know about the Vikings' line, but the Titans, fresh off a playoff berth, feature Albert Haynesworth, one of the only tackles that can be fairly compared to Kevin Williams, a Pro Bowl defensive end in Kyle Vanden Bosch, and Javon Kearse, who while getting up in age, is still a big name defensive end.

And unlike the Vikings line, the Titans have been living up to the hype all year. They have 11 sacks already almost all of which have come from their defensive line. Haynesworth has 3, and Vanden Bosch, Kearse and DT Tony Brown have 2 each. With those sacks have come a 9.9% adjusted sack rate, the third best in the NFL, and well above the NFL average of 7.0%. They've also held opposing running games to 3.54 adjusted line yards, the 7th best in the NFL. And these totals aren't out of line for the Titans, as they've finished 9th and 11th in ASR in the last two years that they weren't missing Haynesworth because he was hurt or impersonating a Riverdancer.

The Vikings will try and counter with an offensive line that is still missing its starting left tackle. But, while they've been below average, allowing 6 sacks and an adjusted sack rate of 7.5%, the 18th best in the league, they're still doing better than the last three years. The Vikings offensive line's best finish in ASR was 22nd, in 2006. Last year, they were 30th, and they were 28th in 2005. Of course, they've always been able to run the ball and they're 2nd in the league, behind Denver, with 5.03 adjusted line yards.

The Titans offensive line is more well rounded, but they haven't had quite the same success running the ball as the Purple. While they're 17th overall in Adjusted Line yards, with 4.15, they were 4th in Adjusted Sack Rate last year and have been even better this year, allowing only 2 sacks in their first three games and with a 2.8% ASR, they have the second best Adjusted Sack Rate in the NFL.

That means the Vikings' defensive line will not have an easy task on Sunday if they plan on meeting their preseason hype. While the new Purple People Eaters have looked impressive the last two weeks, and especially against the Panthers, their ASR still isn't much better than it was last year. The last three years, the Purple have been 28th, 31st and 21st overall in ASR. This year, they're 18th, but they're still below average, with a 6.8% ASR. They've still been dominating the run, holding opponents to a league best 2.66 adjusted line yards, but as we've seen, that's not enough to be the kind of dominant defense line that can carry a team to the playoffs.

For the Vikings' to be successful, they need their pass rush to get to the quarterback like the Titans' pass rush has. They've shown they can do it against the Colts and especially against the Panthers. They need to be able to do it against the Titans as well if they want to continue to climb out of the 0-2 hole they've dug for themselves.

Desperate for a Win

As I said yesterday, if you look at the Vikings and Panthers' records, this game seems like a mismatch. However, when you delve a little bit further, it becomes apparent that the Vikings not only have a very good chance of winning this game, they've played as well as the Panthers have, only without the results. If Gus Frerotte can get the passing game to work better than Tarvaris Jackson did, the Vikings should beat the Panthers and begin climbing back into contention. If he can't, however, the Vikings will be sitting at 0-3 and basically done for the season, with only a 3.4% chance of making the playoffs.

Rank	Team	Total DVOA	Last Week	DAVE	Rank	OFF DVOA	Rank	DEF DVOA	Rank
18	MIN	-1.7%	22	17.2%	8	0.4%	18	-5.8%	11
19	CAR	-2.0%	17	2.7%	17	1.4%	15	3.4%	17

As you can see, the Vikings have a slightly better DVOA than the Panthers do and are still considered the better team by DAVE, which combines the preseason projection and the results so far in an attempt to get a more reliable ranking of teams early in the year. The Vikings have been much better on defense overall (you want a negative defensive DVOA) and have been relatively comparable offensively.

When you start to break it down a even more, the differences between the Vikings and Panthers becomes more apparent.

Rank	Team	OFF DVOA	Last Week	OFF DAVE	Rank	Pass OFF	Pass Rank	Rush OFF	Rush Rank
18	MIN	0.4%	19	9.5%	9	-18.1%	24	16.1%	7
15	CAR	1.4%	9	2.1%	13	-3.8%	19	6.4%	14

Offensively, the Panthers are a much better passing team than the Vikings are. You probably knew that. They aren't a great passing team though, as their DVOA passing is negative. Of course, that's without Steve Smith and as we've all seen before, Steve Smith is the kind of difference maker that can practically win a game by himself. Runningwise, the Panthers have a solid line and two good backs, including a stud rookie in Jonathon Stewart. Stewart's actually fourth overall in DYAR and DVOA so far this year, and he's 8th in Success Rate, which isn't a surprise because he is a load to tackle (The Purple Jesus is 2nd, 5th and 6th in those three categories). DeAngelo Williams is a good back as well and is 17th in DYAR and 16th in DVOA. So while it's not unreasonable for them to be splitting the carries 50/50, he's going to start losing carries to Stewart, just like Chester Taylor lost carries to Adrian Peterson. That hasn't happened quite yet, however.

Defensively, the Panthers have trouble against both the pass and the run, but their issues stopping the pass are nowhere near as pronounced as the Vikings.

Rank	Team	DEF DVOA	Last Week	DEF DAVE	Rank	Pass DEF	Pass Rank	Rush DEF	Rush Rank
11	MIN	-5.8%	23	-8.0%	7	15.6%	22	-31.1%	4
17	CAR	3.4%	27	-3.0%	11	3.6%	14	3.1%	19

The Panthers’ struggles against the pass come from their inability to get pressure. This isn't a new or unexpected issue, either, as the Panthers had the second fewest sacks last year and lost two of their best pass rushers when they traded Kris Jenkins and lost Mike Rucker to retirement. They've also had problems against the run (something the Vikings just might be able to exploit), though they've done a better job than the Packers and Colts, who are ranked 23rd and 24th, respectively, in DVOA against the run.

So, the statistics say that there's hope for the Vikings on Sunday. That might not matter, however. The Vikings' do have the home field advantage and they're definitely the more desperate team, but I think the Panthers still have the edge for two reasons. The first is the Vikings' injuries. Bernard Berrian and Sidney Rice are banged up to the point where they might not be able to be effective with Peyton Manning circa 2004 throwing to them, let alone with Gus Frerotte. Adrian Peterson is having hamstring issues. And that's not even factoring in that Visanthe Shiancoe is perfectly healthy and just waiting for the perfect moment to drop a key pass.

The second reason I think the Panthers have the advantage is that this will be Steve Smith's first game back from his suspension. There are few players in the NFL that scare me more than a fired up Steve Smith. And Steve Smith will be fired up on Sunday, which, when combined with the Vikings' mediocre to awful secondary, means that, while we likely won't see him mock-rowing in the end zone, we are likely to see him do some shadow boxing there.

I think the Panthers win this one, 27-13, dropping the Vikings to 0-3 and guaranteeing that a new regime is going to inherit a team one quarterback away from Super Bowl contention. Wonder if Bill Cowher will want to coach a running game like the Vikings have?

Solving Our Problems: Madieu Williams

[Solving Our Problems is an ongoing series here at the Ragnarok where I evaluate the Vikings' options going into the offseason. I started by looking at the quarterback options, examining Derek Anderson, Donovan McNabb and possible backups for Tarvaris Jackson. I've tried to figure out who the QB is going to throw to, starting with free agent Bernard Berrian and Donte Stallworth, but I'm going to take a detour and take a look at a safety the Vikings might sign, Madieu Williams]

The Star Tribune had an article today about the Vikings' possible targets in free agency, and it's a positive one, because the Vikings are going to go after top talent. According to the article, the Vikings top three targets are wide receiver Bernard Berrian, defensive end Justin Smith and safety Madieu Williams. I covered why the Vikings should try and sign Berrian earlier, and Grant's Tomb took a look at the possibilities in the free agent market at defensive end, which I agree with, because I don't think the Vikings are going to spend big money on a pass rusher, because the talent isn't there. Aside from Smith, who struggled in his free agency year, there really aren't any game changing talents. That, combined with the fact that the draft has some quality talent at the position, makes me think that the Purple will spend their $30 million to fill other gaps, mainly wide receiver and safety. And, with Dwight Smith signing with the Lions, the Purple have to find a player to pair with Darren Sharper, and Madieu Williams is their top target.

Williams has spent his four years playing for the Bengals, but you shouldn't let that scare you. He's a talented safety, and is known off the field for his charity work (you thought I was going to say "legal troubles", didn't you? Well, he's not that kind of Bengal). And unlike Smith, his talents lie in coverage, not run support. As Football Prospectus 2007 put it, "Williams in particular is excellent in coverage and can help cover the deficiencies of the corners."

The information in the following table was taken from Football Prospectus 2007, so the stats are from 2006. I don't have access to the stats from last season yet. However, based on what I've read about Williams, he played about as well in 2007 as he did in 2006. And based on watching Smith, I think he preformed about as well this year as he did last year. So I believe that the information below is still relevant in comparing the two.

The first two statistics deal with the safeties ability to stop the run. RuYd shows where the player normally tackled a runner past the line of scrimmage and RuStp deals with the percentage of run plays in which the player was involved in stopping. The second two statistics deal with stopping the pass. Suc% is the percentage of plays targeting a player on which the offense did not have a successful play. "This means not only incomplete passes and interceptions but also short completions that do not meet our baselines for success (45 percent of needed yards on 1^st down, 60 percent on 2^nd down, 100 percent on 3^rd or 4^th down)". PD is passes defensed, which is a counting stat that includes any time a player knocked down a pass or intercepted it. Where the player ranks out of all NFL defensive backs in the first three statistics is also included.

	RuYd	Rank	RuStp	Rank	Suc%	Rank	PD
Madieu Williams	8	62nd	43%	39th	69%	3rd	10
Dwight Smith	4.6	10th	55%	13th	43%	64th	7

As you can see, Williams is nowhere near the run stopper that Smith is and Smith is nowhere near as good at coverage as Williams is, except when he comes to intercepting passes, as Smith has averaged 3.25 picks over the last four years, while Williams has averaged only 2.25 picks over the same time period. One extra interception a year isn't that big a loss, however, when you consider that Williams was almost 25% more successful at stopping plays targeting him.

While replacing Smith with Williams would likely hurt the Vikings' run defense, adding a safety with Williams' coverage ability would be a huge gain for the Vikings' pass defense. Williams and Sharper (his Suc% was also 69%) would likely make up the best pair of coverage safeties in the NFL, which would more than offset whatever damage it would do to the Vikings' run defense. And, the Vikings' can afford losing some of their ability at stopping the run if it means improving their mediocre pass defense, especially at a position that isn't as vital to run defense. Signing Williams would accomplish that, and in today's NFL, being able to stop the pass is of vital importance.

Can the Tarvaris Revolution Continue?

Last year, a 4-3 Vikings team with playoff aspirations went into San Francisco, and, against a defense that was allowing an average of 33.6 points per game, managed one field goal in a 9-3 loss. After an offseason spending spree, the 49ers defense has improved, but only from league worst to below average (23.8 ppg-24th overall).

Here's the thing-despite focusing on improving their pass defense in the offenseby signing corner Nate Clements to a whopping 8 year, $80 million contract and safety Michael Lewis and drafted LB Patrick Willis and DE Ray McDonald in the first and third round, the Niners defense has not only failed to improve, it's gotten worse. Last year, their defense was 28th in opposing passer rating and 25th in Negative Pass Play Percentage (NPP). Quarterbacks posted a 90.9 QB Rating against them and were only able to cause a Negative Pass Play (an interception or a sack) 8.7% of the time, or a little less than 3 times a game, despite opponents running an average of 32.4 pass plays a game.

This year, even with improved personnel, the Niners have allowed opposing quarterbacks to post a 91.9 QB rating while only causing a negative pass play 7.9% of the time, which equates to about 2.6 of the 33.9 pass plays opponents have passed against them.

To put those statistics in context, consider that Peyton Manning has a 92.5 QB rating and that the Giants have the best NPP, with 12.79%, or 4.25 times out of 33.2 attempts. Here are the Vikings' last three opponents' opposing QB rating and NPP:

Team	Opposing QB Rating	Negative Pass Play Percentage	Tarvaris’ QB Rating
OAK	74.1 (6th)	10.58% (7th)	79.9
NYG	84.6 (18th)	12.79% (1st)	139.2
DET	93.0 (29th)	9.05% (18th)	110.4

To put it bluntly, this will be one of the worst passing defenses Tarvaris will see all year. And it's not like he'll have to carry the load either, as the Vikings should be able to run against them as well (the Niners are allowing an average of 3.8 YPC). Then again, Brad Johnson and Chester Taylor shouldn't have had any problems against them last year.

Save Us Purple Jebus!

The Vikings will be facing one of the top offenses in the NFL on Sunday, and the best offense in the NFC. A team with enough firepower to score 27 points against the Patriots defense and a team, that, prior to last week, was on pace to break the 1998 Vikings' record for points scored in a season (they are currently on pace for 540 points). This is a team with the third best DVOA in overall offense (23.8%, behind only New England and Indianapolis), the third best passing DVOA (38.6%) and the fifth best running attack by DVOA (12.1%). They have a running back, Marion Barber III with the highest DVOA for a back (39.4%-for comparison, All Day's is 25.0%) and the ability to break any tackle.

Their quarterback has the 6th highest DPAR in the NFL, ahead of such big names as Brett Farve and Carson Palmer, despite throwing seven interceptions in the last two games. He also picks up more big name females than anyone outside of the Fertile one in New England. He is, however, as you can tell from the interceptions, a "gun slinger", so there is hope for Antoine Winfield, Darren Sharper and the rest of the secondary, provided they don't let the ball hit them between the "3" and the "1".

And it's not like Tony Romo is throwing to untalented hacks. Patrick Crayton has blown up in his fourth year. He has already had the second best season of his career, and is well on pace to set career highs in receptions, yards and touchdowns. Not to mention the fact that he's hauling in 62% of the passes thrown his way and is eighth in DPAR amongst receivers. His bigger name compatriot, Terrell Owens, isn't doing quite as well, largely due to a case of the drops. Owens' has only caught 48% of passes thrown his way, which would be the lowest of his career.

Neither Crayton nor Owens is leading the team in receiving this year, however, which is yet another reason for Vikings' fans to worry. The Cowboy's tight end, Jason Witten, is leading the team in receptions, yards and is tied for the lead in touchdowns. Witten also has the second highest DPAR amongst tight ends, behind only Antonio Gates, and the fifth highest DVOA. You may remember the tight end who's in third in DPAR, seeing as how Tony Gonzalez had seven catches for 96 yards against the Vikings. Witten becomes even scarier when one considers that the Vikings have had problems defending tight ends this year, giving up a DVOA of 24.4%.

Quite simply, the Cowboys have the most potent offense the Vikings will face this year, and it will take the Purple Jesus performing another miracle for their offense to keep up with the Cowboys. There's some solace to be found, however, in the fact that the Vikings do not necessarily need to win this game to make the playoffs. Definitely wouldn't hurt if they did, but realistically, this is not a must win game, like last Sunday's was.

A Dominant Offensive Line?

The Vikings are willing to trust that Tarvaris Jackson can run a competent air attack because of their confidence in their ability to run the ball. And while Chester Taylor is a solid back and Adrian Peterson has all of the talent in the world, the Vikings’ faith in their running game is due to their faith in their offensive line. And considering how much money they’ve invested in their line, they had better be confident in its ability to open massive holes for their skilled backs, not to mention their ability to give Tarvaris Jackson a chance to develop as a quarterback, rather than as a scrambler.

Was the money well spent? Should the Vikings be confident in their offensive line’s abilities? According to this year’s Pro Football Prospectus (PFP), the answer is yes…and no. [Just so everyone knows, I’m going to be drawing from the Prospectus the entire preseason. This book is awesome, with an amazing amount of statistics and is quite well written. Like Baseball Prospectus, it is a required purchase prior to the season.]

As you’d expect, the Vikings’ line was pretty good last year. However, it was not the dominant force the team needs. It was above average in the running game, but well below average in protecting the passer and nowhere near as dominant in the run game as one would think a line with Bryant McKinnie, Steve Hutchinson and Matt Birk would be. Whether that was due to the incompetent quarterbacking, the weak quality of the right side or McKinnie’s broken hand, depends on who you ask. By using PFP’s statistics, however, the answer becomes a little clearer.

Prior to consulting any statistics, my hunch would be that the line’s inability to dominate the pass rush had to do with Brad Johnson’s immobility. Their adjusted sack rate (ASR) , which is calculated by adding sacks and intentional grounding and then dividing that by pass plays and adjusting for situation, ranked 22nd overall at 7.6%. To put that in context, the Colts’ line had the best ASR in the NFL at 3.4%. This stat is also kept for quarterbacks, however, which allows you to better determine whether the sack was the line's fault or the quarterback. And it implies my hunch was incorrect. Brooks Bollinger and Tarvaris Jackson went down frequently, with ASR’s of 24.3% and 8.7% respectively, while Brad Johnson actually had a lower ASR than the offensive line, with a 5.9%. Bollinger’s career ASR is actually worse than David Carr’s and Tarvaris is a rooke that likes to run, neither of which bodes well for a line trying to keep their QB upright.

Even when the quarterback handed the ball off, the Vikings’ line didn’t dominate as much as would be expected. And the problems weren’t on the right side like you'd think. PSP’s charting has broken down the yardage gained depending on where on the line the back ran, recording each run off left end, left tackle, middle, right tackle and right end. One would think that the Vikings’ were completely above average going to the left side, but that isn’t what the statistics show. In reality, there worst outcomes came off of left end, where they averaged 3.00 yds/carry, in comparison to a league average of 4.12. The Vikings were above average on every other part of the line, with their greatest success coming off of right end, where they ran for 5.15 yds/carry, more than a yard better than the 4.08 average. They were also successful off of left tackle (4.85 yds/carry, compared to a 4.36 average) and off of right tackle, at 4.54 yds/carry, with the league averaging 4.21 yds/carry. Up the middle, however, they were middle of the road, gaining 4.33 yd/s carry, almost exactly the same as the 4.32 league average.

This information seems to back up the idea that the right side of the line was the weak point, as well as demonstrate that Matt Birk was not as effective as he was prior to his hernias. Even with Steve Hutchinson to help, running the ball up the middle behind Birk and Artis Hicks was in effective. And running the ball outside to the left, behind a pulling Birk or Hicks was an exercise in futility. But when Hicks or Birk were deemphasized, the Vikings ground game was in the top six, whether it was behind Bryant McKinnie or a pulling Steve Hutchinson. And it seems that Ryan Cook and Marcus Johnson were competent at doing their jobs in the running game.

Based on last year's statistics, it seems the Vikings don't quite have the quality of line they need for their running game to carry their offense. They are set at left tackle and left guard, but their center is aging and losing effectiveness. Not to mention the fact that Artis Hicks wasn’t worth acquiring and Ryan Cook is still a question mark. The Vikings should still be effective running Peterson and Taylor behind McKinnie and Hutchinson, but the reality is that it won’t be enough to remove the pressure from Tarvaris Jackson and his merry band of receivers to keep the offense moving. And it won’t help that they’ll have problems keeping defenders off of Tarvaris either, something that won't help him develop the instincts he needs to determine when to run and when to hang in the pocket.

A Look At the Offense--A Bit of Quarterbacking Hope

And now it’s time to get into the really ugly parts of the Vikings’ offense: the quarterbacks, tight ends and wide receivers, starting with the ugliest, the quarterbacks. The Vikings’ quarterback trio of Brad Johnson, Brooks Bollinger and Tarvaris Jackson produced a pathetic 5.36 passing yard per attempt, good for 26^th in the league. Brad Johnson, the Black Hole of Suck, was, of course, a large part of that, turning in the worst season of his career, completing 61.5% of his passes for 2750 yards, 9 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. He finished with a QB rating of 72.0, and was probably the worst quarterback in the NFL to get 400+ attempts. Vikings’ fans should be thankful that he won’t be back, as he’s well into a dramatic decline phase that will likely lead to his accepting a backup role somewhere else. Or, if the Vikings are really lucky, the Lions will sign him to replace Jon Kitna as their starter.

Sadly, the Tarvaris Revolution wasn’t any more successful. His passer rating was an awful 62.5, while his DPAR of -11.9 and DVOA of -44.8% were among the worst by any quarterback this year. Then again, that’s usually what happens when a quarterback project gets playing time his first year, especially considering he was making the jump from 1-AA. Thankfully, The Revolution’s play on the field showed that he has potential. Yes, he had some awful interceptions, but he also made some amazing throws, including a beautiful (and effortless) deep ball that Troy Williamson dropped, and a pass to Mewelde Moore as Jets defenders dragged him down that Moore turned into a touchdown (demonstrating my point). He also showed off his speed and mobility (especially in the Red Zone) and a willingness to throw the ball away when called for. As he becomes more comfortable with the speed of the NFL, the stupid mistakes should decrease, leaving only the solid decision making and big play ability.

Quarterback	DPAR (Season 1)	DVOA (Season 1)	DPAR (Season 2)	DVOA (Season 2)
T. Jackson	-11.9	-44.8%	N/A	N/A
E. Manning	-13.3	-28.4%	36.9	41.2%
C. Simms	-7.6	-33.1%	27.5	6.2%
C. Frye	-9.3	-25.0%	-17.5	-22.5%
J. Losman	-31.3	-24.5%	21.2	-2.8%
A. Smith	-66.5	-97.8%	1.5	-12.5%
P. Rivers	-5.2	-60.1%	85.1	21.3%

As I said before, Tarvaris’ ugly stats do not mean that he won’t improve. Since 2003, there have been six quarterbacks who had 250 passing attempts in their first season of playing and then became the starting quarterback the following season. Only Charlie Frye failed to improve upon his first season's performance. While this table is not predictive, it does show that Tarvaris’ stats from this year should be taken with a grain of salt. Assuming the Star Tribune wasn’t lying about Tarvaris’ work ethic, I would bet he’s more likely to become the sixth quarterback in the last four seasons to make a huge improvement in his performance during his second season.