Killing Time: Tom Powers > Mark Craig

Tom Powers > Mark Craig:
Mark Craig thinks Vikings' fans should be happy with the Vikings' 3-3 record and tie for first place. He's wrong. Yes, the Giants and Redskins all lost games they were favored to win. But unlike the Vikings, the Redskins and Giants have impressive victories. The Redskins first five games were all against quality teams (the Saints have the worst record, at 3-3), including a win against their biggest rival on the road, a win against the NFC West leaders and another road division win. The Giants dominated in their first four games (and won the Super Bowl last year--think Vikings' fans would care if they barely beat the Lions the year after winning the Super Bowl? Yeah, me neither). If the Vikings had been 4-1 coming into the game, having beaten the Packers and Colts, the fans wouldn't have been booing. But they weren't, and, as Tom Powers points out, the fans (and the owner, I'd bet), were promised a Super Bowl contender and Brad Childress has not delivered. This team hasn't shown it has the ability to be a Super Bowl contender and I'm not even sure they've shown that they're going to contend for the division. And I'm not sure that Brad Childress has shown in his tenure that he's a good enough coach to take a team to the playoffs.

Defensive Injuries:
The Bears' secondary is hurting badly. The Viking's linebacking corps isn't beat up, but that's because the Purple have brought back Dontarrius Thomas and Napolean Harris (Yes! The Randy Moss trade continues to pay off!!) to fill in for E.J. Henderson and his injured backup, Noah Herron. Guess which team is better equipped to take advantage of their opponent's injuries? I'll give you a hint--even with Matt Forte nursing a hamstring injury, it's not the Vikings (though, if the Purple could get Sidney Rice back, that might make a difference).

Power Rankings:
Even though they won and even though they are now tied for first place, the Vikings dropped even further in the Power Rankings, with an average ranking of 21. And it's not a surprise that they fell out of the top twenty either--a team that has not won a game impressively doesn't deserve the benefit of the doubt after barely pulling out a win against the only win less team left in the NFL.

1. Cold, Hard Football Facts.com (20)
2. Foxsports.com (22)
3. ESPN.com (21)
4. CBSsportsline.com (22)
5. Dr. Z's rankings on CNNSI.com (20)

Desperate for a Win

As I said yesterday, if you look at the Vikings and Panthers' records, this game seems like a mismatch. However, when you delve a little bit further, it becomes apparent that the Vikings not only have a very good chance of winning this game, they've played as well as the Panthers have, only without the results. If Gus Frerotte can get the passing game to work better than Tarvaris Jackson did, the Vikings should beat the Panthers and begin climbing back into contention. If he can't, however, the Vikings will be sitting at 0-3 and basically done for the season, with only a 3.4% chance of making the playoffs.

Rank	Team	Total DVOA	Last Week	DAVE	Rank	OFF DVOA	Rank	DEF DVOA	Rank
18	MIN	-1.7%	22	17.2%	8	0.4%	18	-5.8%	11
19	CAR	-2.0%	17	2.7%	17	1.4%	15	3.4%	17

As you can see, the Vikings have a slightly better DVOA than the Panthers do and are still considered the better team by DAVE, which combines the preseason projection and the results so far in an attempt to get a more reliable ranking of teams early in the year. The Vikings have been much better on defense overall (you want a negative defensive DVOA) and have been relatively comparable offensively.

When you start to break it down a even more, the differences between the Vikings and Panthers becomes more apparent.

Rank	Team	OFF DVOA	Last Week	OFF DAVE	Rank	Pass OFF	Pass Rank	Rush OFF	Rush Rank
18	MIN	0.4%	19	9.5%	9	-18.1%	24	16.1%	7
15	CAR	1.4%	9	2.1%	13	-3.8%	19	6.4%	14

Offensively, the Panthers are a much better passing team than the Vikings are. You probably knew that. They aren't a great passing team though, as their DVOA passing is negative. Of course, that's without Steve Smith and as we've all seen before, Steve Smith is the kind of difference maker that can practically win a game by himself. Runningwise, the Panthers have a solid line and two good backs, including a stud rookie in Jonathon Stewart. Stewart's actually fourth overall in DYAR and DVOA so far this year, and he's 8th in Success Rate, which isn't a surprise because he is a load to tackle (The Purple Jesus is 2nd, 5th and 6th in those three categories). DeAngelo Williams is a good back as well and is 17th in DYAR and 16th in DVOA. So while it's not unreasonable for them to be splitting the carries 50/50, he's going to start losing carries to Stewart, just like Chester Taylor lost carries to Adrian Peterson. That hasn't happened quite yet, however.

Defensively, the Panthers have trouble against both the pass and the run, but their issues stopping the pass are nowhere near as pronounced as the Vikings.

Rank	Team	DEF DVOA	Last Week	DEF DAVE	Rank	Pass DEF	Pass Rank	Rush DEF	Rush Rank
11	MIN	-5.8%	23	-8.0%	7	15.6%	22	-31.1%	4
17	CAR	3.4%	27	-3.0%	11	3.6%	14	3.1%	19

The Panthers’ struggles against the pass come from their inability to get pressure. This isn't a new or unexpected issue, either, as the Panthers had the second fewest sacks last year and lost two of their best pass rushers when they traded Kris Jenkins and lost Mike Rucker to retirement. They've also had problems against the run (something the Vikings just might be able to exploit), though they've done a better job than the Packers and Colts, who are ranked 23rd and 24th, respectively, in DVOA against the run.

So, the statistics say that there's hope for the Vikings on Sunday. That might not matter, however. The Vikings' do have the home field advantage and they're definitely the more desperate team, but I think the Panthers still have the edge for two reasons. The first is the Vikings' injuries. Bernard Berrian and Sidney Rice are banged up to the point where they might not be able to be effective with Peyton Manning circa 2004 throwing to them, let alone with Gus Frerotte. Adrian Peterson is having hamstring issues. And that's not even factoring in that Visanthe Shiancoe is perfectly healthy and just waiting for the perfect moment to drop a key pass.

The second reason I think the Panthers have the advantage is that this will be Steve Smith's first game back from his suspension. There are few players in the NFL that scare me more than a fired up Steve Smith. And Steve Smith will be fired up on Sunday, which, when combined with the Vikings' mediocre to awful secondary, means that, while we likely won't see him mock-rowing in the end zone, we are likely to see him do some shadow boxing there.

I think the Panthers win this one, 27-13, dropping the Vikings to 0-3 and guaranteeing that a new regime is going to inherit a team one quarterback away from Super Bowl contention. Wonder if Bill Cowher will want to coach a running game like the Vikings have?

Too Many Injuries--Madieu Williams Hurt

Those who criticized the Vikings for drafting a safety in the second round because they didn't need one due to their signing of Madieu Williams, well, they look stupid now. (And yes, I think I was one of those, but I'm too tired too look that up, so I'll just assume responsibility). Thankfully, the Vikings' brain trust knew better, because otherwise the Purple would have to rely on Michael Boulware and, well, whoever they'd have been able to sign as the other backup safety. And that wouldn't cut it for the three games that Williams is likely going to miss.

The Vikings have now lost special teams ace Heath Farwell and backup defensive end Jayme Mitchell for the season and are unsure about whether Brian Robison will be able to play in the season opener. Mitchell's injury likely hurts the most, since it robs the Vikings of depth at defensive end, a position the Purple need depth at in order to be able to rotate linemen like they want to. And there have been a lot of players skipping practices to rest nagging injuries, including Bernard Berrian and, most importantly, Tyrell Johnson, who has had problems with his abdominal muscles.

There's really only thing that can derail this season (outside of Tarvaris Jackson playing like he did his rookie year) and that's injuries to the Vikings' crucial players. While injuries are a fact of life in the NFL, it sure seems like the Purple have had more than their fair share already, but thankfully, they've only lost one starter so far and only for three games. And yes, I know I just jinxed the Vikings. Still--there have been a lot of injuries.