Make no mistake about it--this game is a must win for the Vikings if they want to make the playoffs. The Lions are, quite possibly, the worst team in the NFL this year (and the only reason that’s not a certainty is because the Rams are just as bad). Yes, they’ve fired Matt Millen (the Kevin McHale of the NFL), but there’s only so much an interim GM can do during the season to turn around a team in the trade shy NFL, something the Lions’ embarrassing 34-7 home loss to the Bears last week only served to highlight.
It doesn’t even take a knowledgeable football fan to figure out that this might be the worst Lions team ever. They have a legitimate shot at losing every game. They’ve been outscored by 81 points in their first four games (an average of 20.25 points per game), which is the second worst in the league, topped only by the Rams, who have been outscored by 104 points in their first four games (see what I mean about the Rams?). They’ve given up 147 total points, tied with the Rams for the most points allowed and have only scored 66 points. That’s the third fewest points, behind the Rams (who sadly, are not on the Vikings’ schedule this year) and the Chiefs, who tried using Tyler Thigpen, who was cut by the Vikings’ last year, at quarterback for two games. Quite simply, their offense has been horrible, although, it’s probably not a good sign for the Vikings that the Purple’s offense has scored the same number of touchdowns in five games as the Lions have scored in four.
Defensively, they’re just as bad. I mean, what else do you need to know about a defense, other than the fact that they just allowed Kyle Orton to complete 70.5% of his passes for 334 yards and two touchdowns? They’ve yet to hold a team under 31 points, are allowing 180 rushing yards per game, have only four sacks so far this year and have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 67.5% of their passes. Quarterbacks have a QB Rating of 121.5 against them so far this year. Basically, they’re turning every quarterback they face into the 2004 version of Peyton Manning. And by every quarterback, I mean Matt Ryan,, Aaron Rodgers, J.T. O’Sullivan and Kyle Orton.
And yet, it seems likely that the Vikings’ offense will continue to sputter. They couldn’t run the ball against the Saints, who held the Vikings to 1.7 yards per carry, despite allowing running backs 5.22 yards per carry in their previous four games. The Vikings couldn’t move the ball through the air either, except when Gus Frerotte closed his eyes and chucked it deep to Bernard Berrian (or Aundrae Allison) and hoped Berrian would adjust and come back to the under thrown ball.
Of course, if Berrian continues to play as well as he did against the Saints, it may not matter that Frerotte and “accuracy” can’t really be used in the same sentence. Then again, he's still battling a knee injury and missed most of practice this week. There isn’t anyone in the Lions secondary that’s as good as Mike McKenzie or Terry Porter (which says a lot, actually, because neither is a Pro Bowl type). And Dwight Smith is still good for at least one blown coverage at safety a game. The Lions don’t have the same type of speed at linebacker as the Saints did either, which means they won’t be able to shut down outside runs the same way the Saints did either (though, if Childress had just, you know, made an adjustment and pounded the ball up the middle against the Saints’ small linebackers, that might not have been an issue). This week, the Purple might want to avoid running the ball to the right (more so than they normally do), because that’s where the Lions’ best player, linebacker Ernie Sims usually is, but aside from Sims, there really isn’t anyone on the Lions who requires a team to game plan for them.
Defensively, the Vikings will have to be careful of the Lions’ passing game. While their quarterback situation is up in the air (it doesn’t matter if the Lions start Jon Kitna, Dan Orlovsky or Drew Stanton, all three are liable to get yanked or hurt), they still feature the same quality wide receivers they’ve had the last two years (insert your favorite Matt Millen draft joke here). Calvin Johnson has started to play like the #2 overall pick (well, at least as much as he can within the Lions’ offense). Roy Williams remains a threat, although prone to dropping passes (he’s only caught 42% of the balls thrown his way) and Mike Furrey remains a capable third receiver. That’s about it for the Lions’ offensive talent though. Their offensive line has allowed four sacks a game and struggles to open up holes in the running game. While rookie Kevin Smith has shown some promise, he’s only averaged 3.6 yards per carry. Rudi Johnson has been better, with a 5.3 yards per carry average, but neither is a threat to break a big play and neither is a threat against the Vikings, even though they’re missing E.J. Henderson.
No matter which way you slice it, the Lions are an awful team and one the Vikings’ should beat easily. Add in the fact that it’s a division game (which will factor into possible tiebreakers for the division crown and the wild card berths) and it’s a game that the Vikings must win to keep pace. They’ve managed to get most of the way out of the 1-3 hole they dug themselves in just one game against the Saints (with some help from the Packers and Bears), but they have to capitalize on opportunities like this one if they want to see the postseason for the first time since 2004. Odds are it’ll be an ugly game, unless Adrian Peterson goes off for 250+ yards or the Vikings’ defense creates points off of turnovers, but the Vikings should come out with a 30-17 win, and in today’s NFL, that’s all that matters.
Showing posts with label Prediction. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Prediction. Show all posts
Friday, October 10, 2008
Monday, October 06, 2008
A Very Winnable Game
If, while watching the game tonight, you start to feel like you've seen this Saints team play before, don't be surprised--you have. Of course, that was four years ago, and the team you were watching was in Purple. Like the 2004 Vikings, the Saints have a top five offense based on an elite passing game, a bottom ten defense and they play in a dome.
Of course, there are some differences, but the differences are close enough for it to be a fair comparison. Like Daunte Culpepper, Drew Brees does not get sacked easily, though he avoids the rush by getting rid of the ball quickly, rather than being 6'6" 280 (that, my friends, is what I call hard hitting analysis). That doesn't mean a dominant pass rush can't make a huge difference. In games in which Brees is under constant pressure, he tends to make quick decisions that lead to turnovers. It will be up to the Vikings' front four to get in Brees' face, because the Saints are going to spread the field, with lots of quick passes and are able to exploit blitzes easily. They won't be facing more than the five linemen which means they won't have to worry about double teams--they just have to beat their man and get in Brees face. They probably won't sack him that often, but they can knock his passes down and they can knock him down. If they can't do that, Brees will pick the coverage apart.
The Vikings defense does have the luxery of not having to worry about the Saints' ability to run the ball. This won't even be a case of the Vikings' tremendous rush defense being the reason, either, as the Saints' are averaging less than 3.4 yards per carry so far this year and are 22nd in rushing DVOA, with a -5.4%. To put that in context, the Saints have gotten about as much value out of their running game as the Vikings' have gotten out of their passing game.
Of course, when you have the ultimate scat back, like the Saints do, it doesn't matter as much that they can't run the ball. As I wrote on Friday, Reggie Bush is at his most dangerous when he's catching a pass, and with the loss of E.J. Henderson for a month or so, he becomes even more dangerous. Luckily for the Purple, though, the Saints' receiving corps has been ravaged by injuries, and they are missing Jeremy Shockey, David Patton and Marques Colsten. They still have Devery Henderson to attack deep and Lance Moore, who's stepped up and replaced Colsten as Brees' number one option. Moore is 7th in DYAR so far this year and 3rd in DVOA among all wide receivers. Make no mistake--he's a very dangerous weapon and one that Drew Brees is very comfortable using.
When the Vikings' have the ball, they should be able to do quite a bit offensively. The Saints do not have a good defense and are missing nickleback Aaron Glenn and starting defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis. Ellis suffered a knee injury against the 49ers last Sunday that will require surgery and the Saints are going to miss him. He had 11 tackles and one sack in the first four games and was the best run stopper on the team. Even with him, however, the Saints were unable to stop the run, and have given up almost 500 yards on the ground on less than 100 carries. Opposing running backs have gained an average of 5.2 yards per carry (which means that the Saints have basically turned every back into Adrian Peterson) and they're 28th in rush defense DVOA, last in adjusted line yards and have given up runs of 10+ yards 15% of the time. And now they don't have their best defensive tackle (and the Vikings are getting Bryant McKinnie back). That's not a good sign for the Saints.
The Saints haven't been able to stop the passing game either. They've been worse than the Purple have been (they're 18th to the Vikings' 14th in DVOA), despite doing a decent job of applying pressure. The Saints' pass rush has been about average, with a 6.8% adjusted sack rate, the 16th best in the NFL (6.9% is the NFL average). That means their secondary has been awful, which isn't too surprising considering that Mike McKenzie has started only one game, and rookie corner back Tracy Porter is the only corner back to start all four games.
The Vikings' should be able to pass on the Saints (even if Bernard Berrian is banged up again). They should be able to run the ball on the Saints. The question is, can the Vikings' defense keep the Saints' passing game from going off for 30 plus points. If the Vikings can limit the Saints to 24 points (their lowest total so far this year), then the offense should be able to match that (or Zygi should just fire Brad Childress after the game). If the Saints score 30+ points, they're going to win the game, barring Adrian Peterson going into Purple Jesus mode (the Vikings have not scored 30+ points without Adrian rushing for 200+ yards or by creating a ton of turnovers).
With the Packers and Bears remaining in sight, the Vikings can get back into the division race with a win tonight. I'm not sure they can do it against a passing game as good as the Saints. I see the Purple dropping the game 31-20 and falling to 1-4. Zygi's going to mad again tonight.
Of course, there are some differences, but the differences are close enough for it to be a fair comparison. Like Daunte Culpepper, Drew Brees does not get sacked easily, though he avoids the rush by getting rid of the ball quickly, rather than being 6'6" 280 (that, my friends, is what I call hard hitting analysis). That doesn't mean a dominant pass rush can't make a huge difference. In games in which Brees is under constant pressure, he tends to make quick decisions that lead to turnovers. It will be up to the Vikings' front four to get in Brees' face, because the Saints are going to spread the field, with lots of quick passes and are able to exploit blitzes easily. They won't be facing more than the five linemen which means they won't have to worry about double teams--they just have to beat their man and get in Brees face. They probably won't sack him that often, but they can knock his passes down and they can knock him down. If they can't do that, Brees will pick the coverage apart.
The Vikings defense does have the luxery of not having to worry about the Saints' ability to run the ball. This won't even be a case of the Vikings' tremendous rush defense being the reason, either, as the Saints' are averaging less than 3.4 yards per carry so far this year and are 22nd in rushing DVOA, with a -5.4%. To put that in context, the Saints have gotten about as much value out of their running game as the Vikings' have gotten out of their passing game.
Of course, when you have the ultimate scat back, like the Saints do, it doesn't matter as much that they can't run the ball. As I wrote on Friday, Reggie Bush is at his most dangerous when he's catching a pass, and with the loss of E.J. Henderson for a month or so, he becomes even more dangerous. Luckily for the Purple, though, the Saints' receiving corps has been ravaged by injuries, and they are missing Jeremy Shockey, David Patton and Marques Colsten. They still have Devery Henderson to attack deep and Lance Moore, who's stepped up and replaced Colsten as Brees' number one option. Moore is 7th in DYAR so far this year and 3rd in DVOA among all wide receivers. Make no mistake--he's a very dangerous weapon and one that Drew Brees is very comfortable using.
When the Vikings' have the ball, they should be able to do quite a bit offensively. The Saints do not have a good defense and are missing nickleback Aaron Glenn and starting defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis. Ellis suffered a knee injury against the 49ers last Sunday that will require surgery and the Saints are going to miss him. He had 11 tackles and one sack in the first four games and was the best run stopper on the team. Even with him, however, the Saints were unable to stop the run, and have given up almost 500 yards on the ground on less than 100 carries. Opposing running backs have gained an average of 5.2 yards per carry (which means that the Saints have basically turned every back into Adrian Peterson) and they're 28th in rush defense DVOA, last in adjusted line yards and have given up runs of 10+ yards 15% of the time. And now they don't have their best defensive tackle (and the Vikings are getting Bryant McKinnie back). That's not a good sign for the Saints.
The Saints haven't been able to stop the passing game either. They've been worse than the Purple have been (they're 18th to the Vikings' 14th in DVOA), despite doing a decent job of applying pressure. The Saints' pass rush has been about average, with a 6.8% adjusted sack rate, the 16th best in the NFL (6.9% is the NFL average). That means their secondary has been awful, which isn't too surprising considering that Mike McKenzie has started only one game, and rookie corner back Tracy Porter is the only corner back to start all four games.
The Vikings' should be able to pass on the Saints (even if Bernard Berrian is banged up again). They should be able to run the ball on the Saints. The question is, can the Vikings' defense keep the Saints' passing game from going off for 30 plus points. If the Vikings can limit the Saints to 24 points (their lowest total so far this year), then the offense should be able to match that (or Zygi should just fire Brad Childress after the game). If the Saints score 30+ points, they're going to win the game, barring Adrian Peterson going into Purple Jesus mode (the Vikings have not scored 30+ points without Adrian rushing for 200+ yards or by creating a ton of turnovers).
With the Packers and Bears remaining in sight, the Vikings can get back into the division race with a win tonight. I'm not sure they can do it against a passing game as good as the Saints. I see the Purple dropping the game 31-20 and falling to 1-4. Zygi's going to mad again tonight.
Friday, September 19, 2008
Desperate for a Win
As I said yesterday, if you look at the Vikings and Panthers' records, this game seems like a mismatch. However, when you delve a little bit further, it becomes apparent that the Vikings not only have a very good chance of winning this game, they've played as well as the Panthers have, only without the results. If Gus Frerotte can get the passing game to work better than Tarvaris Jackson did, the Vikings should beat the Panthers and begin climbing back into contention. If he can't, however, the Vikings will be sitting at 0-3 and basically done for the season, with only a 3.4% chance of making the playoffs.
As you can see, the Vikings have a slightly better DVOA than the Panthers do and are still considered the better team by DAVE, which combines the preseason projection and the results so far in an attempt to get a more reliable ranking of teams early in the year. The Vikings have been much better on defense overall (you want a negative defensive DVOA) and have been relatively comparable offensively.
When you start to break it down a even more, the differences between the Vikings and Panthers becomes more apparent.
Offensively, the Panthers are a much better passing team than the Vikings are. You probably knew that. They aren't a great passing team though, as their DVOA passing is negative. Of course, that's without Steve Smith and as we've all seen before, Steve Smith is the kind of difference maker that can practically win a game by himself. Runningwise, the Panthers have a solid line and two good backs, including a stud rookie in Jonathon Stewart. Stewart's actually fourth overall in DYAR and DVOA so far this year, and he's 8th in Success Rate, which isn't a surprise because he is a load to tackle (The Purple Jesus is 2nd, 5th and 6th in those three categories). DeAngelo Williams is a good back as well and is 17th in DYAR and 16th in DVOA. So while it's not unreasonable for them to be splitting the carries 50/50, he's going to start losing carries to Stewart, just like Chester Taylor lost carries to Adrian Peterson. That hasn't happened quite yet, however.
Defensively, the Panthers have trouble against both the pass and the run, but their issues stopping the pass are nowhere near as pronounced as the Vikings.
| Rank | Team | Total DVOA | Last Week | DAVE | Rank | OFF DVOA | Rank | DEF DVOA | Rank |
| 18 | MIN | -1.7% | 22 | 17.2% | 8 | 0.4% | 18 | -5.8% | 11 |
| 19 | CAR | -2.0% | 17 | 2.7% | 17 | 1.4% | 15 | 3.4% | 17 |
As you can see, the Vikings have a slightly better DVOA than the Panthers do and are still considered the better team by DAVE, which combines the preseason projection and the results so far in an attempt to get a more reliable ranking of teams early in the year. The Vikings have been much better on defense overall (you want a negative defensive DVOA) and have been relatively comparable offensively.
When you start to break it down a even more, the differences between the Vikings and Panthers becomes more apparent.
| Rank | Team | OFF DVOA | Last Week | OFF DAVE | Rank | Pass OFF | Pass Rank | Rush OFF | Rush Rank |
| 18 | MIN | 0.4% | 19 | 9.5% | 9 | -18.1% | 24 | 16.1% | 7 |
| 15 | CAR | 1.4% | 9 | 2.1% | 13 | -3.8% | 19 | 6.4%
| 14 |
Offensively, the Panthers are a much better passing team than the Vikings are. You probably knew that. They aren't a great passing team though, as their DVOA passing is negative. Of course, that's without Steve Smith and as we've all seen before, Steve Smith is the kind of difference maker that can practically win a game by himself. Runningwise, the Panthers have a solid line and two good backs, including a stud rookie in Jonathon Stewart. Stewart's actually fourth overall in DYAR and DVOA so far this year, and he's 8th in Success Rate, which isn't a surprise because he is a load to tackle (The Purple Jesus is 2nd, 5th and 6th in those three categories). DeAngelo Williams is a good back as well and is 17th in DYAR and 16th in DVOA. So while it's not unreasonable for them to be splitting the carries 50/50, he's going to start losing carries to Stewart, just like Chester Taylor lost carries to Adrian Peterson. That hasn't happened quite yet, however.
Defensively, the Panthers have trouble against both the pass and the run, but their issues stopping the pass are nowhere near as pronounced as the Vikings.
| Rank | Team | DEF DVOA | Last Week | DEF DAVE | Rank | Pass DEF | Pass Rank | Rush DEF | Rush Rank |
| 11 | MIN | -5.8% | 23 | -8.0% | 7 | 15.6% | 22 | -31.1% | 4 |
| 17 | CAR | 3.4% | 27 | -3.0% | 11 | 3.6% | 14 | 3.1% | 19 |
The Panthers’ struggles against the pass come from their inability to get pressure. This isn't a new or unexpected issue, either, as the Panthers had the second fewest sacks last year and lost two of their best pass rushers when they traded Kris Jenkins and lost Mike Rucker to retirement. They've also had problems against the run (something the Vikings just might be able to exploit), though they've done a better job than the Packers and Colts, who are ranked 23rd and 24th, respectively, in DVOA against the run.
So, the statistics say that there's hope for the Vikings on Sunday. That might not matter, however. The Vikings' do have the home field advantage and they're definitely the more desperate team, but I think the Panthers still have the edge for two reasons. The first is the Vikings' injuries. Bernard Berrian and Sidney Rice are banged up to the point where they might not be able to be effective with Peyton Manning circa 2004 throwing to them, let alone with Gus Frerotte. Adrian Peterson is having hamstring issues. And that's not even factoring in that Visanthe Shiancoe is perfectly healthy and just waiting for the perfect moment to drop a key pass.
The second reason I think the Panthers have the advantage is that this will be Steve Smith's first game back from his suspension. There are few players in the NFL that scare me more than a fired up Steve Smith. And Steve Smith will be fired up on Sunday, which, when combined with the Vikings' mediocre to awful secondary, means that, while we likely won't see him mock-rowing in the end zone, we are likely to see him do some shadow boxing there.
I think the Panthers win this one, 27-13, dropping the Vikings to 0-3 and guaranteeing that a new regime is going to inherit a team one quarterback away from Super Bowl contention. Wonder if Bill Cowher will want to coach a running game like the Vikings have?
Friday, June 20, 2008
It Was a Nice Thought--SI Dooms Vikings to Miss Playoffs
That's right, in a manner eerily reminiscent of Peter King's prediction for the 2005 season, Paul Zimmerman, Dr. Z himself, has picked the Vikings to go to the Super Bowl this year. Color me unexcited.
You may remember what happened after King's prediction set the land of Purple abuzz with dreams of the Super Bowl--the Vikings started out 2-5 and Daunte Culpepper began ruining his legacy as the second best Vikings' quarterback ever by throwing interception after interception and then got hurt and burned every bridge he could on his way out of town. Also, Mike Tice ended up getting fired at the end of the year even after the Purple finished 7-2. And there was that whole "Love Boat" thing. So yeah, sorry if I'm not excited about Dr. Z picking the Vikings to make the Super Bowl.
Of course, Peter King's choice came after what was probably the worst offseason in the Vikings' history. The Vikings traded Randy Moss for the 7th overall choice and Napolean Harris, used their first round choices on Troy Williamson and Erasmus James, along with a whole host of other players that also failed to last more than three years in Purple and signed Fred Smoot. That's a lot of mistakes. Thankfully, the Vikings did make one move that didn't hurt the team, signing Darren Sharper, who may have single handily prevented the 2005 offseason from being the worst ever.
In comparison, Dr. Z's pick comes after what looks like a good offseason for the Purple. Jared Allen is no Fred Smoot (hopefully) and was a much better player than Smoot was with his first team. Bernard Berrian is much more likely to upgrade the receiving corps than Troy Williamson was, and while Madieu Williams may not quite have the same track record as Darren Sharper, he should still be as big an upgrade over Dwight Smith as Sharper was over Brian Russell. Oh, and the Vikings didn't trade away the most talented wide receiver in the league.
That being said, the only reason King was wrong was because he evaluated the Vikings' offseason moves incorrectly. His three other reasons for choosing the Vikings-- that the Eagles (a better team) couldn't keep winning, because they had an easier route to home field than his two other favorites (the Eagles and Panthers) and because the NFC Champion had been in the middle of the pack the previous year--all applied to the eventual NFC Champion Seattle Seahawks.
So while I don't think Dr. Z is wrong about the Vikings' offseason moves, or about Tarvaris Jackson's ability to step up and be a decent quarterback, his pick still scares me, because I didn't think King's reasoning was all that flawed at the time. If Dr. Z is wrong about the Purple's offseason? Well, let's just say that this next offseason will likely be as tumultuous as the 2006 offseason was.
You may remember what happened after King's prediction set the land of Purple abuzz with dreams of the Super Bowl--the Vikings started out 2-5 and Daunte Culpepper began ruining his legacy as the second best Vikings' quarterback ever by throwing interception after interception and then got hurt and burned every bridge he could on his way out of town. Also, Mike Tice ended up getting fired at the end of the year even after the Purple finished 7-2. And there was that whole "Love Boat" thing. So yeah, sorry if I'm not excited about Dr. Z picking the Vikings to make the Super Bowl.
Of course, Peter King's choice came after what was probably the worst offseason in the Vikings' history. The Vikings traded Randy Moss for the 7th overall choice and Napolean Harris, used their first round choices on Troy Williamson and Erasmus James, along with a whole host of other players that also failed to last more than three years in Purple and signed Fred Smoot. That's a lot of mistakes. Thankfully, the Vikings did make one move that didn't hurt the team, signing Darren Sharper, who may have single handily prevented the 2005 offseason from being the worst ever.
In comparison, Dr. Z's pick comes after what looks like a good offseason for the Purple. Jared Allen is no Fred Smoot (hopefully) and was a much better player than Smoot was with his first team. Bernard Berrian is much more likely to upgrade the receiving corps than Troy Williamson was, and while Madieu Williams may not quite have the same track record as Darren Sharper, he should still be as big an upgrade over Dwight Smith as Sharper was over Brian Russell. Oh, and the Vikings didn't trade away the most talented wide receiver in the league.
That being said, the only reason King was wrong was because he evaluated the Vikings' offseason moves incorrectly. His three other reasons for choosing the Vikings-- that the Eagles (a better team) couldn't keep winning, because they had an easier route to home field than his two other favorites (the Eagles and Panthers) and because the NFC Champion had been in the middle of the pack the previous year--all applied to the eventual NFC Champion Seattle Seahawks.
So while I don't think Dr. Z is wrong about the Vikings' offseason moves, or about Tarvaris Jackson's ability to step up and be a decent quarterback, his pick still scares me, because I didn't think King's reasoning was all that flawed at the time. If Dr. Z is wrong about the Purple's offseason? Well, let's just say that this next offseason will likely be as tumultuous as the 2006 offseason was.
Monday, December 17, 2007
Fear and Da Bears
I'll be perfectly honest--this game scares me to death. How many times have the Vikings been here before? How many times have they had a playoff spot/victory/Super Bowl in their hands only to give it up against teams they shouldn't have? I mean, wasn't it just a four years ago that the Vikings, needing only one win to clinch a playoff berth, faced a Bears team with no playoff hopes and, despite having Daunte Culpepper, Randy Moss and a stellar offense, lost 13-10 when Moss had the ball ripped out of his arms by Charles Tillman in the end zone?
And now the Saints are breathing down the Vikings neck in the playoff chase, and there's a Bears team that's been eliminated from the playoffs coming into the Metrodome and I am terrified. It doesn't matter that the Bears' sole offensive weapon only plays special teams. It doesn't matter that the Bears defense has suffered so many injuries and played so poorly that they're giving up 4.22 yards per carry (22nd in the NFL). It doesn't matter that their pass defense makes opposing quarterbacks look like Drew Brees (92.1 QB rating against and 92.1 QB rating for respectively). It doesn't matter that the Purple Jesus performed his first miracle against them. I am terrified of this game because this game (and the following two games) are the type of games that the Vikings have been losing since the 2000 season.
You think I'm joking? Since the 2000 season, the Vikings have gone 3-15 in the last three games of each season (not counting 2002, in which they were nowhere near playoff contention), including 0-3 last year. They have yet to finish better than 1-2 this millennium, managing that feat only three times. And it's not like the Vikings have just gotten unlucky against good competition either (examples include the Bears game mentioned above, the Cardinals game in 2003, the loss to a 6-10 Redskins team in 2004 and many more that I don't want to go into). Obviously, this didn't prevent the team from making the playoffs in 2000 and 2004, but it certainly did in 2003, 2005 and 2006. And it certainly looks like a 1-2 or 0-3 finish would eliminate this years team as well.
So you'll have to pardon me if I don't get worked up about the Vikings' failure to maintain a "culture of accountability". I don't have the energy. Honestly, at this point, all I really want out of Childress is for him to create a culture of winning so they can stop choking and finish strong. And yeah, I didn't mean to be this negative, so I'm sorry about that, but misery likes company, so I thought I'd share.
My brain says the Vikings win 31-13, but my gut says Bears 20, Vikings 14. I hope the Purple Jesus and the Tarvaris Revolution listen to my brain.
And now the Saints are breathing down the Vikings neck in the playoff chase, and there's a Bears team that's been eliminated from the playoffs coming into the Metrodome and I am terrified. It doesn't matter that the Bears' sole offensive weapon only plays special teams. It doesn't matter that the Bears defense has suffered so many injuries and played so poorly that they're giving up 4.22 yards per carry (22nd in the NFL). It doesn't matter that their pass defense makes opposing quarterbacks look like Drew Brees (92.1 QB rating against and 92.1 QB rating for respectively). It doesn't matter that the Purple Jesus performed his first miracle against them. I am terrified of this game because this game (and the following two games) are the type of games that the Vikings have been losing since the 2000 season.
You think I'm joking? Since the 2000 season, the Vikings have gone 3-15 in the last three games of each season (not counting 2002, in which they were nowhere near playoff contention), including 0-3 last year. They have yet to finish better than 1-2 this millennium, managing that feat only three times. And it's not like the Vikings have just gotten unlucky against good competition either (examples include the Bears game mentioned above, the Cardinals game in 2003, the loss to a 6-10 Redskins team in 2004 and many more that I don't want to go into). Obviously, this didn't prevent the team from making the playoffs in 2000 and 2004, but it certainly did in 2003, 2005 and 2006. And it certainly looks like a 1-2 or 0-3 finish would eliminate this years team as well.
So you'll have to pardon me if I don't get worked up about the Vikings' failure to maintain a "culture of accountability". I don't have the energy. Honestly, at this point, all I really want out of Childress is for him to create a culture of winning so they can stop choking and finish strong. And yeah, I didn't mean to be this negative, so I'm sorry about that, but misery likes company, so I thought I'd share.
My brain says the Vikings win 31-13, but my gut says Bears 20, Vikings 14. I hope the Purple Jesus and the Tarvaris Revolution listen to my brain.
Saturday, November 24, 2007
A Look at the Giants Game
Earlier this year, I thought that the Vikings game against the Giants would be one of their more winnable games. The team seemed to be in full meltdown mode coming into the season, exchanging barbs with the now retired Tiki Barber and playing for a coach they didn't like who was in the final year of his contract. Looking at the Giants now, however, shows a team that should be good enough to beat the Vikings, but may actually be a good matchup for the Purple.
Despite having a big name quarterback and a big name receiver, the Giants' offense has mainly come on the ground. They're currently averaging only 5.77 yards per passing attempt, which is well below average at 20th in the NFL. In fact, it's only a little better than the Vikings 5.52 YPA. Football Outsiders also has a low opinion of the Giants air attack, as their passing DVOA is 0.0%, 20th overall, though much better than the Vikings' -11.0% DVOA. A lot of that has to do with the fact that Eli Manning has not played well at all. He has an 81.3 QB rating, which is 18th overall, and has 19.9 DPAR, which is 20th overall, .6 DPAR behind Philip Rivers. He doesn't really add any value, as his 0.5% DVOA (25th overall) shows. This is partly due to the fact that his best receiver has been hobbled with injuries for most of the season and partly due to the fact that he's not much better than an average quarterback. Of course, as the Vikings have demonstrated many times this season, you don't have to have an above average quarterback to be successful through the air against the Purple. It doesn't help that Antoine Winfield is still having hamstring issues and is listed as doubtful for the game.
Winfield's injury will also hurt the Vikings ability to stop the Giants' running game, which is among the best in the NFL and the key to stopping the Giants offense. The Giants' are fifth in yard per carry with 4.38 YPC and fifth in rushing DVOA. Of course, there's nothing the Vikings like more than facing a team that relies on its rushing game. Not all that surprising, considering the Purple are holding their opponents to 2.88 YPC, second best in the NFL and have the best DVOA against the run with a -29.6% DVOA. I'm also sure that Pat Williams, E.J. Henderson and company are looking forward to facing the Giants third string running back, one Rubeun Droughns, since Brandon Jacobs is out and Derrick Ward is doubtful.
The Vikings' offense also matches up pretty well against the Giants' defense. New York allows 4.0 yards per carry, 19th in the NFL. This is a team that can be run against, whether or not the Purple Jesus plays (make no mistake about it-he should not play. There is no reason to rush him, and letting him play on Sunday is definitely rushing him). Where the Giants' defense excels, however, is in creating negative pass plays, a statistic they lead the league in. 12.27% of the time that a quarterback drops back to pass against the Giants, something bad happens, which makes a lot of sense, considering they lead the league in sacks and have three players in the top 15 in sacks (Michael Strahan-8.0, Osi Umenyiora-8.0 and Justin Tuck-7.0). They are missing one of their defensive stars, however, Mathias Kiwanuka, which will have a significant effect on their defense. Kiwanuka moved to outside linebacker this year from defensive end and has been a dominant force for the Giants. He had 4.5 sacks and 46 tackles, both the 4th best on the Giants and he was an important part of their pass rush and their run defense. He won't be on the field, however, as he broke his leg against the Lions last week.
As you can see, the Vikings are facing a beat up Giants team that they match up well with. Whether that will be enough will depend largely on whether the defense can shut down Eli Manning and Jeremy Shockey the same way they shut down Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates and whether the offense can keep the Giants pass rush off of Tarvaris Jackson long enough to allow him to be an average quarterback. If they can do both of those things, they should win. If not, the Purple will come up just short, just like they have 5 times already this season. My guess? They come up short, falling 27-20.
Despite having a big name quarterback and a big name receiver, the Giants' offense has mainly come on the ground. They're currently averaging only 5.77 yards per passing attempt, which is well below average at 20th in the NFL. In fact, it's only a little better than the Vikings 5.52 YPA. Football Outsiders also has a low opinion of the Giants air attack, as their passing DVOA is 0.0%, 20th overall, though much better than the Vikings' -11.0% DVOA. A lot of that has to do with the fact that Eli Manning has not played well at all. He has an 81.3 QB rating, which is 18th overall, and has 19.9 DPAR, which is 20th overall, .6 DPAR behind Philip Rivers. He doesn't really add any value, as his 0.5% DVOA (25th overall) shows. This is partly due to the fact that his best receiver has been hobbled with injuries for most of the season and partly due to the fact that he's not much better than an average quarterback. Of course, as the Vikings have demonstrated many times this season, you don't have to have an above average quarterback to be successful through the air against the Purple. It doesn't help that Antoine Winfield is still having hamstring issues and is listed as doubtful for the game.
Winfield's injury will also hurt the Vikings ability to stop the Giants' running game, which is among the best in the NFL and the key to stopping the Giants offense. The Giants' are fifth in yard per carry with 4.38 YPC and fifth in rushing DVOA. Of course, there's nothing the Vikings like more than facing a team that relies on its rushing game. Not all that surprising, considering the Purple are holding their opponents to 2.88 YPC, second best in the NFL and have the best DVOA against the run with a -29.6% DVOA. I'm also sure that Pat Williams, E.J. Henderson and company are looking forward to facing the Giants third string running back, one Rubeun Droughns, since Brandon Jacobs is out and Derrick Ward is doubtful.
The Vikings' offense also matches up pretty well against the Giants' defense. New York allows 4.0 yards per carry, 19th in the NFL. This is a team that can be run against, whether or not the Purple Jesus plays (make no mistake about it-he should not play. There is no reason to rush him, and letting him play on Sunday is definitely rushing him). Where the Giants' defense excels, however, is in creating negative pass plays, a statistic they lead the league in. 12.27% of the time that a quarterback drops back to pass against the Giants, something bad happens, which makes a lot of sense, considering they lead the league in sacks and have three players in the top 15 in sacks (Michael Strahan-8.0, Osi Umenyiora-8.0 and Justin Tuck-7.0). They are missing one of their defensive stars, however, Mathias Kiwanuka, which will have a significant effect on their defense. Kiwanuka moved to outside linebacker this year from defensive end and has been a dominant force for the Giants. He had 4.5 sacks and 46 tackles, both the 4th best on the Giants and he was an important part of their pass rush and their run defense. He won't be on the field, however, as he broke his leg against the Lions last week.
As you can see, the Vikings are facing a beat up Giants team that they match up well with. Whether that will be enough will depend largely on whether the defense can shut down Eli Manning and Jeremy Shockey the same way they shut down Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates and whether the offense can keep the Giants pass rush off of Tarvaris Jackson long enough to allow him to be an average quarterback. If they can do both of those things, they should win. If not, the Purple will come up just short, just like they have 5 times already this season. My guess? They come up short, falling 27-20.
Friday, September 07, 2007
Stunning
I have no idea how to react to this column by perpetual curmudgeon, Patrick Reusse. Frankly, I'm speechless.
A columnist in the Star Tribune actually picked the Vikings to be successful this year. And he actually backed it up with some analysis. Reusse's probably been whisked away to the Star Tribune's "re-education center" where's he being force fed pop culture references from three years ago and forced to compare Brad Childress' choice of running backs to "Bachellorette" Trista Rehn's choice of men.
Or maybe he avoided that by getting in a few shots at the unwashed masses that cheer for the Vikings' for being too negative.
...
Moving on to Sunday's game, it seems like those who get to watch it, will get to see the Vikings' start out the season with a win. As I wrote the past two days, the Vikings match up perfectly with the Falcons' offense and defense. And with Rod Coleman still very questionable with a quad injury, Atlanta's going to have even more issues stopping Chester and the Purple Jesus.
That's why I think the Vikings pull this one out easily. Chester and the Purple Jesus combine for 150 yards rushing, the Tarvaris Revolution completes between 55%-60% of his passes for 200 yards and a touchdown and the defense dominates Joey Harrington and the running game like it normally does, picking Harrington off once, sacking him once and holding the Falcons to just under 100 yards rushing.
Vikings win 27-10 and the march to the playoffs begins.
Anyone else care to make any predictions?
A columnist in the Star Tribune actually picked the Vikings to be successful this year. And he actually backed it up with some analysis. Reusse's probably been whisked away to the Star Tribune's "re-education center" where's he being force fed pop culture references from three years ago and forced to compare Brad Childress' choice of running backs to "Bachellorette" Trista Rehn's choice of men.
Or maybe he avoided that by getting in a few shots at the unwashed masses that cheer for the Vikings' for being too negative.
...
Moving on to Sunday's game, it seems like those who get to watch it, will get to see the Vikings' start out the season with a win. As I wrote the past two days, the Vikings match up perfectly with the Falcons' offense and defense. And with Rod Coleman still very questionable with a quad injury, Atlanta's going to have even more issues stopping Chester and the Purple Jesus.
That's why I think the Vikings pull this one out easily. Chester and the Purple Jesus combine for 150 yards rushing, the Tarvaris Revolution completes between 55%-60% of his passes for 200 yards and a touchdown and the defense dominates Joey Harrington and the running game like it normally does, picking Harrington off once, sacking him once and holding the Falcons to just under 100 yards rushing.
Vikings win 27-10 and the march to the playoffs begins.
Anyone else care to make any predictions?
Thursday, November 30, 2006
Do You Believe in Miracles? I Don't.
Well, I was getting all geared up to write my preview for Sunday's pivotal contest against da Bears and then, as is my habit, I took a look at the Star Tribune's site. That's right--there's only a 25% chance that Pat Williams is going to play on Sunday. Don't everyone get excited at once.
I was really close to talking myself into picking the Vikings too. Rex Grossman throws interceptions like it's his job (except at home). Da Bears' defense is weak against the run (8th in the NFL) and teams like to pass against them (32.2 attempts/game for only 163.1 yards). And the cold weather should favor the Vikings and their more run oriented attack (da Bears average 116 yards/game on the ground to the Vikings 112). Due to my complete disregard of the facts, I was almost able to predict an ugly, Tice style, NFC North battle, culminating in a 13-10 Vikings win (the only thing holding me back was the knowledge that Brad Johnson was going to be wearing a glove on his throwing hand because of the cold).
But now that the best defensive player on the team is out, even I have to face facts. Let's see if you can follow this logic: If the Vikings win, then they shut down da Bears rushing attack. If the Vikings shut down da Bears rushing attack, then Pat Williams clogged up the middle, drew double teams and generally wreaked havoc in da Bears backfield. Pat Williams will not be playing on Sunday. Therefore, the Vikings will have problems stopping da Bears when they run the ball. Everyone follow?
Now, I'm not saying that the Vikings will let Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson run all over the field. But I am saying that for them to have any chance of stopping da Bears' offense, they need to continue to dominate their opponents running games, something they aren't going to be able to do without Pat Williams. The coverage continues to be mediocre at best, and the lack of anything resembling a pass rush means that Grossman is going to have time to pick apart that mediocre coverage. That, combined with even an average ground game, will lead to an above average offensive attack (something we all know the Vikings' can't match). Really, it could get ugly.
Unless, of course (trust me--you can't keep a good optimist down), da Bears change their game plan to reflect the cold weather and the loss of Pat Williams. If they decide to play it like Mike Tice did in 2003 and over commit to the run in order to get a true representation of games in the "Black and Blue Division", then the Vikings have a chance.
The problem with that theory is that, last time I checked, Lovie Smith wasn't a moron. Da Bears in a rout: 31-10. It's gonna be ugly on Sunday.
I was really close to talking myself into picking the Vikings too. Rex Grossman throws interceptions like it's his job (except at home). Da Bears' defense is weak against the run (8th in the NFL) and teams like to pass against them (32.2 attempts/game for only 163.1 yards). And the cold weather should favor the Vikings and their more run oriented attack (da Bears average 116 yards/game on the ground to the Vikings 112). Due to my complete disregard of the facts, I was almost able to predict an ugly, Tice style, NFC North battle, culminating in a 13-10 Vikings win (the only thing holding me back was the knowledge that Brad Johnson was going to be wearing a glove on his throwing hand because of the cold).
But now that the best defensive player on the team is out, even I have to face facts. Let's see if you can follow this logic: If the Vikings win, then they shut down da Bears rushing attack. If the Vikings shut down da Bears rushing attack, then Pat Williams clogged up the middle, drew double teams and generally wreaked havoc in da Bears backfield. Pat Williams will not be playing on Sunday. Therefore, the Vikings will have problems stopping da Bears when they run the ball. Everyone follow?
Now, I'm not saying that the Vikings will let Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson run all over the field. But I am saying that for them to have any chance of stopping da Bears' offense, they need to continue to dominate their opponents running games, something they aren't going to be able to do without Pat Williams. The coverage continues to be mediocre at best, and the lack of anything resembling a pass rush means that Grossman is going to have time to pick apart that mediocre coverage. That, combined with even an average ground game, will lead to an above average offensive attack (something we all know the Vikings' can't match). Really, it could get ugly.
Unless, of course (trust me--you can't keep a good optimist down), da Bears change their game plan to reflect the cold weather and the loss of Pat Williams. If they decide to play it like Mike Tice did in 2003 and over commit to the run in order to get a true representation of games in the "Black and Blue Division", then the Vikings have a chance.
The problem with that theory is that, last time I checked, Lovie Smith wasn't a moron. Da Bears in a rout: 31-10. It's gonna be ugly on Sunday.
Thursday, November 16, 2006
A Picture is Worth 1000 Words
The words just weren't coming, and so, I'm going to use the magic of photography to tell the story of what will happen on Sunday. Those among you with weak constitutions might want to avert your eyes.
Miami 24, Vikings 10 (Goodbye Playoffs, Hello Lottery!)
Brad getting sacked
Jason Taylor celebrating.
Brooks Bollinger "playing"
More Sacks by Miami
Antoine Winfield wasn't covering Chris Chambers
Jason Taylor celebrating.
Brooks Bollinger "playing"
More Sacks by Miami
Antoine Winfield wasn't covering Chris Chambers
Miami 24, Vikings 10 (Goodbye Playoffs, Hello Lottery!)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
