NFC Playoff Table: Week 14--Still in it, Still a Mess

The playoff picture is starting to become clearer, only because there are fewer teams that realistically have a shot at the playoffs. While the Niners and Rams are still technically alive, they would need to win out and get a lot of help in order to sneak in. Carolina is also in a lot of trouble, since every team ahead of them holds the tiebreaker over them. In the division races, the NFC North, South and West are done. Da Bears are already in, the Saints only need to win one more game, or have both Atlanta and Carolina lose, in order to clinch and the Seahawks are in a similar position, needing only a win or a San Francisco loss to repeat as the NFC West champions.

That leaves us having to consider the Eagles, Giants, Falcons, Cowboys and Vikings. The Vikings are the team that needs the most help. They are a game back of the wild card and two of the four teams ahead of them would likely win a tiebreaker, unless they finish tied at 8-8, with the Vikings' only loss coming to the Jets. At that point, they would win the tiebreaker over all of the teams ahead of them, due to a superior NFC record.

If the Vikings loss is to the Packers or Rams (or if they win out and are tied with a 9-7 team), they would still have a better NFC record than the Falcons and Cowboys. The Eagles and Giants, however, would be different story. In this scenario, they would finish with an identical NFC record, which would force them onto the next tiebreaker, record against common opponents. The Eagles would win this tiebreaker, since they are 5-0 against opponents they have in common with the Vikings, with no games remaining, while the Vikings are only 3-2. The Giants, however, still have another game against Washington in Week 17, and currently sit at 2-2. If the ‘Skins win, the Vikings would hold the tiebreaker over the Giants. If the Giants win, then the tiebreaker would be determined by strength of victory, something that the remaining three games will determine.

There is one final wrinkle that must be considered. If the Vikings finish tied with more than one team, then another set of tiebreakers is applied first to narrow it down. If the two other teams are in the same division (a.k.a. from the NFC East), divisional tiebreakers are first used to eliminate one of the team and then the tiebreakers described in the above paragraph are applied. If all three teams are from different divisions, the first tiebreaker used would be NFC record, which would either give the playoff berth to the Vikings (8-8 with a loss to the Jets) or eliminate every team except the Vikings (9-7 or 8-8 with another NFC loss) and the Giants or Eagles. Then the same tiebreakers as described above would be applied.

So basically, the Vikings need to win their last two games to have a shot at the wild card. Since the Eagles play the Giants, Cowboys and Falcons, and the Falcons and Cowboys also square off; it looks like the last NFC wild card spot will go to a 9-7 team or 8-8 team. I’ll have a rooting guide up again on Saturday morning to help you decide who to back this weekend, but the most important thing is that the Vikings not lose another conference game.

Team	Record			NFC Record	Tiebreakers		Tiebreaker Games Left	Other Opponents Left
MIN	6-7			6-4	SEA, CAR		STL	@GB, NYJ
NYG	7-6			6-3	ATL, CAR		NO	PHI, WAS
PHI	7-6			6-3	GB, SF, CAR		ATL, @NYG, @DAL	NONE
DAL	8-5			5-4	CAR		@ATL, PHI,	DET
NO	9-4			8-1	PHI, NO, SF, ATL, DAL		@NYG	CAR, WAS
ATL	7-6			5-4	NONE		DAL, @PHI	CAR,
CAR	6-7			4-6	STL		@ATL, @NO	PIT
SEA	8-5			6-4	NYG, STL		SF	SD, @TB
STL	5-8			4-6	NONE		@MIN	@OAK, WAS
SF		5-8	4-6			MIN	GB, @SEA		DEN