Playoffs! Playoffs!! (A Look at the Scenarios)

Once again, the Vikings got every break they could ask for over the weekend. Aside from taking care of the Niners, both the Cardinals and Lions lost, and three of the four 5-7 teams that played suffered their eighth loss, the maximum number that could. If the season ended right now, well, the Vikings would be traveling to Seattle to play the Seahawks in the first round. Here's the playoff table, and I'll break down the playoff scenarios after it. I'll post my thoughts on the game, along with the Three Stars this afternoon.

Team	W-L	NFC Record	Division Record	Tie Breakers	NFC Games Left	AFC Games Left
NYG	9-4	7-4	3-2	DET, CHI, PHI	WAS	@ BUF, NE
MIN	7-6	5-5	2-3	NYG	CHI, WAS	@ DEN
DET	6-7	4-7	3-2	CHI	@GB	@ SD, KC
ARZ	6-7	3-6	2-3	DET	@NO, ATL, STL	None
WAS	6-7	4-5	1-3	DET, ARZ, CHI	@NYG, @MIN, DAL	None
NO	5-7	4-4	2-3	None	@ ATL, ARZ, PHI, @CHI	None
CAR	5-8	5-4	2-3	ARZ	SEA, DAL, @TB	None
CHI	5-8	2-7	1-3	PHI	@MIN, GB, NO	None
PHI	5-8	3-7	1-3	DET, MIN	@DAL, @ NO	BUF

Assuming New Orleans' wins tonight (not a big assumption), the Vikings would have a one game lead over the Lions, Cardinals and Saints and a two game lead over the Panthers, Giants and Eagles. There are a few different ways the Vikings can finish:

• The Vikings go 3-0. If the Purple can do that, they're going to the playoffs as the 6 seed, unless the Giants finish 1-2 or 0-3, at which point they'd be the 5 seed.
  

• The Vikings go 2-1 by beating Washington and Chicago, leaving them at 9-7 with a 7-5 conference record and 3-3 divisional record. If this happens, they would need Detroit and New Orleans to lose at least once, since a 9-7 Lions team would win the divisional record tiebreaker with a 4-2 record, and a 9-7 Saints team would win the conference record tiebreaker with an 8-4 NFC record.

• The Vikings go 2-1, dropping a game to either the Redskins or Bears, leaving them at 9-7 with a 6-6 NFC record and 2-4 divisional record. If this happens, they would need Detroit and New Orleans to lose at least once, since a 9-7 Lions team would win the divisional record tiebreaker with a 4-2 record, and a 9-7 Saints team would win the conference record tiebreaker with an 8-4 NFC record. Also, if the loss came to the Redskins, they would need them to lose to either the Giants next week, or to Dallas in Week 17.

• The Vikings go 1-2, with only a victory over the Redskins or Bears, leaving them at 8-8 with a 6-6 NFC record and 2-4 divisional record. If this happens, they would likely need Detroit and New Orleans to lose twice, since an 8-8 Lions team would win the divisional record tiebreaker with a 4-2 record (unless one of those losses was to the Packers in Week 17, at which point the tiebreaker would go to record against common opponents, which has even more possible scenarios) and an 8-8 Saints team would win the conference record tiebreaker with an 7-5 NFC record. They would also need the Panthers and Cardinals to lose another game. Finally, if one of their losses came to the Redskins, they would need them to lose to both the Giants next week and to Dallas in Week 17. If the loss came against the Bears, they would need them to lose to either Green Bay or New Orleans.

• The Vikings go 1-2, with only a victory over the Broncos, leaving them at 8-8 with a 5-7 NFC record and a 2-4 divisional record. If this happens, they would likely need Detroit and New Orleans to lose twice, since an 8-8 Lions team would win the divisional record tiebreaker with a 4-2 record (unless one of those losses was to the Packers in Week 17, at which point the tiebreaker would go to record against common opponents, which has even more possible scenarios) and an 8-8 Saints team would win the conference record tiebreaker with an 7-5 NFC record. They would also need the Panthers, Bears and Cardinals to lose another game. Finally, they would need the Redskins to lose to both the Giants next week and to Dallas in Week 17.
  

• The Vikings go 0-3, leaving them at 7-9 with a 5-7 NFC record and a 2-4 divisional record. If this happens, the Vikings still have an outside shot at the playoffs, but would need so many breaks (I think the only way they could make it involves a three way tie between the Redskins, Vikings and the Cardinals at 7-9, but that might not even be right) that the odds are they wouldn't make it. Let's not think about this one though.