Killing Time: The One, True Purple Jesus

The Purple Jesus

Adrian Peterson rushing yards this season alone would crack the top twenty for career rushing yards by a Viking. If he didn’t get a yard against the Giants, this would be the 38^th most rushing yards in an NFL season and if he gets 117 yards, he’ll crack the top twenty. And if he gets 1 43 yards, he’ll become the 15^th running back in the history of the NFL to rush for 1800 yards in a season. He’s currently 9^th among Vikings in career rushing yards and he has an outside chance of passing Michael Bennett for 8^th all time this season (he needs 177 yards to do so). He only needs two more yards to crack 3000 yards for his career and he’s rushed for more yards in his first two years than nine of the running backs in the top ten in rushing yards (only Eric Dickerson had more yards his first two years than Peterson). This is his second season. Think about that. If there’s a player that has earned the “Purple Jesus” nickname, it’s Adrian Peterson. What he has done just defies my ability to describe.

There are two things, however, that Vikings’ fans should be concerned about when it comes to AD. The first was demonstrated very clearly on Sunday—he’s fumble prone. As the Pro Football Reference blog points out, that’s likely a result of his ability to gain yards no other back can (and goes on to look at what an optimal turnover rate might be). Also, Peterson apparently took my advice and carried a football around all week like Omar Epps did in the Program.

The second issue that Vikings fans should be worried about is his work load. He only needs 28 carries to reach 370 for the year, and as Smarter Stats shows, that’s a work load that almost no running back can handle without breaking down (or having their performance fall off markedly). Peterson has carried the ball more than 28 times in four games this year (IND, GNB, CHI, @ ARI). Giving him the ball 29 times against the Colts and 30 times against the Packers makes sense to me. Both games were decided by a field goal. Giving him the ball 28 times against Chicago, including five times after the Vikings went up 31-14 with eight minutes left, does not. Nor does giving him 28 carries, including 13 in the second half, in the blowout of the Cardinals. And even if he doesn’t get to 370 carries this year, he’ll have still carried the ball a tremendous amount, and absorbed the punishment that comes with running the ball 360 times. It’s something Childress needs to keep in mind against the Giants and next year (if he's still around next year). There is no greater sin that Childress could commit that would be worse than ruining Adrian Peterson’s career by over working him.

T.J. and Tarvaris

Tarvaris Jackson’s one year old son, Tarvaris, Jr. (If you had an awesome first name like Tarvaris, you’d pass your name along too) has been battling health issues all season. This is the first I’ve heard of it, and it makes Tarvaris’s transformation from benched quarterback to clear starter (and there is no doubt in my mind that he should be starting this game over a healthy Gus Frerotte) all the more remarkable. Best wishes to his son, and hopefully he can bring home a division crown for him.

This game is going to be the first time that Tarvaris Jackson faces an elite pass rush (the Giants are 5^th in adjusted sack rate) since returning from the bench. If the Vikings are smart, they’ll try and get the ball to Chester Taylor in the passing game. The Giants’ pass defense has the worst DVOA in the NFL against running backs. The reason I say Taylor and not Peterson is because Taylor’s one of the best receiving running backs in the NFL and Peterson is one of the worst. Taylor’s 11^th in the NFL amongst backs in DYAR and 12^th in DVOA and he’s caught 81% of the 54 passes thrown his way. Peterson is 51^st in DYAR and 50^th in DVOA and he’s only caught 54% of the 39 passes thrown his way. (Adjusted Sack Rate, DYAR and DVOA courtesy of Football Outsiders)

1000 yards

Bernard Berrian needs 117 receiving yards to become the tenth Viking with 1000 receiving yards in a season and the first since Nate Burleson in 2004. It’s probably a long shot though—he’s only had that many receiving yards in a game twice in his career, although both games were this year (against Detroit and against Chicago). He only needs 69 yards to surpass his previous season high of 951 yards, which he set last year. That’s a lot more likely, as he’s had seven games this year where he had at least 69 yards, although all of them came with Frerotte at quarterback.

Purple Pass Catching Tight Ends

After gaining 136 receiving yards against the Falcons, Visanthe Shaincoe cracked the top ten all time for receiving yards by a Vikings’ tight end. The top ten is below (courtesy of Pro Football Reference). Two things stick out—the first is Joe Senser’s remarkable 1981 season. I’ll be honest—while I know of him because of his restaurant, I didn’t know he was that good of a player. It’s too bad that he suffered a career ending knee injury in 1982. Of course, his retirement led to the second most striking part of the list; the dominance and consistency of Senser’s replacement, Steve Jordan. When you have half the spots in the top ten (and 60% of the spots in the top 5) you’re clearly the best player to ever play the position in Purple. And in case you were wondering, the tight end who was 10th before Shaincoe's big game? Steve Jordan.

1. Joe Senser, 1981--1004 yards
2. Steve Jordan, 1986—859 yards
3. Steve Jordan, 1985—795 yards
4. Steve Jordan, 1988—756 yards
5. Jermaine Wiggins, 2004—705 yards
6. Byron Chamberlain, 2001—666 yards
7. Steve Jordan, 1991—638 yards
8. Steve Jordan, 1990—636 yards
9. Visanthe Shaincoe, 2008—582 yards
10. Jermain Wiggins, 2005—568 yards

The Giants Schedule

The Giants have a chance to set a record for Quality Wins (wins over teams with a winning record) in the regular season (and then in the playoffs) if things break their way on Sunday. Do not underestimate the Giants—this is a talented team that has played and beaten some very good teams. Even with some of their starters resting, they have the ability to beat the Vikings.

Go Lions

The only thing that could possibly make me feel better tomorrow if the Vikings lose and da Bears win is if the Packers lose to the Lions. That would be a black mark on their franchise that no other franchise could match—a loss to a 0-15 team, the worst team ever. Schadenfreude is a beautiful thing. It is a beautiful thing.

Playoff Scenarios

Joe Posnanski explains the various playoff scenarios. Yes, I could have found a better, more concise article on this subject to link to, but I’m going to take every opportunity I have to link to the best sports writer in America (and thus possibly spread the joy of reading him). Read him and thank me later.

Killing Time: Win Expectancy, the Wild Card and the Return of Dontarrius

• Gridironmine figured out the play by play win expectancy for Sunday's game (something they've been doing for the entire season). Personally, I love win expectancy--there are very few ways to figure out the importance of a play. For example, the pass interference call changed the win expectancy 47% in the Vikings favor. Another good example--the Lions had an 85% chance of winning (their highest of the game) when they had the ball at 3rd and 1 on the Vikings' 44 with 5:33 left in the game. Without Kevin Williams stopping Justin Felton for no gain, the Purple probably lose.

• Defensive Indifference and Grant's Tomb on the game.

• The NFC East may not have surrendered the crown of "Best Division" with three losses this week, but the Cowboys, Giants and Redskins' losses created an opening for a team from another division to grab a wild card spot. I think it'll require the right 10-6 record (with most of the 6 losses to AFC teams), but I wouldn't be surprised to see the second wild card team come from the NFC South (or maybe, just maybe the NFC North. And there I go being unrealistically optimistic again. But the Vikings are 3-1 against the NFC...). I definitely would not be surprised if the Cowboys missed the playoffs, especially with Brad Johnson at quarterback for 4 games. It might just be me, but I don't see him matching Tony Romo's 7.94 yards per pass attempt.

• Speaking of Brad Johnson, Kevin Seifert has a breakdown of his final year in Minnesota. Let's just say it's not a favorable breakdown for Brad Childress' coaching style.

• Was Brad Childress' decision to kick the extra point on Sunday a good one? I'm not actually sure. On one hand, it's not a bad idea to ensure you'll only need to score once, even if the other team scores a touchdown (there was no way the Lions would go for two). On the other, the Vikings' offense was playing horrible (and needed an iffy pass interference call to get the field goal they needed). I'm pretty sure that the decision came down to Childress' confidence in the KAO, along with some concerns about a possible punt return touchdown or another big play for a touchdown putting the game out of reach. I'm not going to complain to much about the decision, mainly because I don't think it's too unreasonable to expect the Vikings' offense (or defense, via a turnover) to get in field goal range with 20 minutes remaining in the game and because I don't think the Vikings would have completed the two point conversion.

• Dontarrius Thomas is a Viking again. He's an upgrade over Vinny Circiu at middle linebacker, but no matter what happens (there really aren't a whole lot of available options at MLB in Week 6), the loss of E.J. Henderson is a big one for the Vikings and it makes it less likely that the Vikings' defense can carry the team to the playoffs.
  

• Football Outsiders on why Adrian Peterson's performance on Sunday was a lot worse than you'd think, even after factoring in the two fumbles (and, in a related post, Smarter Stats on why a rushing title doesn't mean a running back had the best season). Also, according to their statistics, Gus Frerotte's performance on Sunday was the 6th worst by a quarterback. Bernard Berrian's performance, however, was the 5th best of any wide receiver.
  

NFL Playoff Table--Some Scenarios

After the Vikings win last night, there are only five teams still alive for the two wild card berths, the Giants, Vikings, Saints, Redskins and Panthers. So here are the four main scenarios:

• The Vikings finish 2-0. In this scenario, the Vikings would make the playoffs. If the Giants finish 2-0, the Vikings would be the six seed. If the Giants finish 1-1, the Vikings would be the fifth seed.
  

• The Vikings finish 1-1 by beating the Redskins and losing to the Broncos. In this scenario, the Vikings would need the Saints to lose at least one of their remaining games, or for the Giants to lose both of their remaining games in order to make the playoffs. (A win on Sunday coupled with a Saints loss would clinch a playoff berth for the Purple).
  

• The Vikings finish 1-1 by losing to the Broncos and losing to the Redskins. In this scenario, the Vikings would need two of the following to happen in order to make the playoffs: the Saints lose at least one of their remaining games, the Giants lose both of their remaining games and the Redskins lose their final game against Dallas.

• The Vikings finish 0-2. In this scenario, the Vikings would miss the playoffs, as the Giants would finish ahead of them, the Redskins would be guaranteed to have at least an 8-8 record with the head to head tiebreaker over the Vikings and they would lose tiebreakers to an 8-8 Saints team (NFC Record) or an 8-8 Panthers team, so they couldn't sneak in via a three way tie.
  

Team	W-L	NFC Record	Division Record	Tie Breakers	NFC Games Left	AFC Games Left
NYG	9-5	7-5	3-3	None	None	@ BUF, NE
MIN	8-6	6-5	3-3	NYG	WAS	DEN
NO	7-7	6-4	3-3	None	PHI, @CHI	None
WAS	7-7	5-5	2-3	None	@MIN, DAL	None
CAR	6-8	7-4	2-3	None	DAL, @TB	None

Playoffs! Playoffs!! (A Look at the Scenarios)

Once again, the Vikings got every break they could ask for over the weekend. Aside from taking care of the Niners, both the Cardinals and Lions lost, and three of the four 5-7 teams that played suffered their eighth loss, the maximum number that could. If the season ended right now, well, the Vikings would be traveling to Seattle to play the Seahawks in the first round. Here's the playoff table, and I'll break down the playoff scenarios after it. I'll post my thoughts on the game, along with the Three Stars this afternoon.

Team	W-L	NFC Record	Division Record	Tie Breakers	NFC Games Left	AFC Games Left
NYG	9-4	7-4	3-2	DET, CHI, PHI	WAS	@ BUF, NE
MIN	7-6	5-5	2-3	NYG	CHI, WAS	@ DEN
DET	6-7	4-7	3-2	CHI	@GB	@ SD, KC
ARZ	6-7	3-6	2-3	DET	@NO, ATL, STL	None
WAS	6-7	4-5	1-3	DET, ARZ, CHI	@NYG, @MIN, DAL	None
NO	5-7	4-4	2-3	None	@ ATL, ARZ, PHI, @CHI	None
CAR	5-8	5-4	2-3	ARZ	SEA, DAL, @TB	None
CHI	5-8	2-7	1-3	PHI	@MIN, GB, NO	None
PHI	5-8	3-7	1-3	DET, MIN	@DAL, @ NO	BUF

Assuming New Orleans' wins tonight (not a big assumption), the Vikings would have a one game lead over the Lions, Cardinals and Saints and a two game lead over the Panthers, Giants and Eagles. There are a few different ways the Vikings can finish:

• The Vikings go 3-0. If the Purple can do that, they're going to the playoffs as the 6 seed, unless the Giants finish 1-2 or 0-3, at which point they'd be the 5 seed.
  

• The Vikings go 2-1 by beating Washington and Chicago, leaving them at 9-7 with a 7-5 conference record and 3-3 divisional record. If this happens, they would need Detroit and New Orleans to lose at least once, since a 9-7 Lions team would win the divisional record tiebreaker with a 4-2 record, and a 9-7 Saints team would win the conference record tiebreaker with an 8-4 NFC record.

• The Vikings go 2-1, dropping a game to either the Redskins or Bears, leaving them at 9-7 with a 6-6 NFC record and 2-4 divisional record. If this happens, they would need Detroit and New Orleans to lose at least once, since a 9-7 Lions team would win the divisional record tiebreaker with a 4-2 record, and a 9-7 Saints team would win the conference record tiebreaker with an 8-4 NFC record. Also, if the loss came to the Redskins, they would need them to lose to either the Giants next week, or to Dallas in Week 17.

• The Vikings go 1-2, with only a victory over the Redskins or Bears, leaving them at 8-8 with a 6-6 NFC record and 2-4 divisional record. If this happens, they would likely need Detroit and New Orleans to lose twice, since an 8-8 Lions team would win the divisional record tiebreaker with a 4-2 record (unless one of those losses was to the Packers in Week 17, at which point the tiebreaker would go to record against common opponents, which has even more possible scenarios) and an 8-8 Saints team would win the conference record tiebreaker with an 7-5 NFC record. They would also need the Panthers and Cardinals to lose another game. Finally, if one of their losses came to the Redskins, they would need them to lose to both the Giants next week and to Dallas in Week 17. If the loss came against the Bears, they would need them to lose to either Green Bay or New Orleans.

• The Vikings go 1-2, with only a victory over the Broncos, leaving them at 8-8 with a 5-7 NFC record and a 2-4 divisional record. If this happens, they would likely need Detroit and New Orleans to lose twice, since an 8-8 Lions team would win the divisional record tiebreaker with a 4-2 record (unless one of those losses was to the Packers in Week 17, at which point the tiebreaker would go to record against common opponents, which has even more possible scenarios) and an 8-8 Saints team would win the conference record tiebreaker with an 7-5 NFC record. They would also need the Panthers, Bears and Cardinals to lose another game. Finally, they would need the Redskins to lose to both the Giants next week and to Dallas in Week 17.
  

• The Vikings go 0-3, leaving them at 7-9 with a 5-7 NFC record and a 2-4 divisional record. If this happens, the Vikings still have an outside shot at the playoffs, but would need so many breaks (I think the only way they could make it involves a three way tie between the Redskins, Vikings and the Cardinals at 7-9, but that might not even be right) that the odds are they wouldn't make it. Let's not think about this one though.