Showing posts with label Big Plays. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Big Plays. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Insight via Statistics--Too Many Penalties

  • Despite having a team consisting of veterans, the Vikings lead the league in penalties and penalty yards. They do, however, have the ability to get big chunks of yards, with 18 passing plays over 20+ yards (the 7th highest in the NFL) and 5 rushing plays over 20+ yards (the 6th most in the league).
  • The Vikings are averaging only 5.58 yards per passing attempt, the 11th worst in the NFL. They are averaging 5.03 yards per carry. Despite having big play threat Bernard Berrian, those stats provide all the reasons you need to know about why the teams are still willing to bring 8 and 9 defenders in the box. One would think that a great offensive mind would be able to figure some way to capitalize on defense's singular focus on the running game.
  • The Vikings once again gave up more big plays on Sunday than they made. That's not a good sign, considering how much correlation there was last year between a team's big play differential and it's success.
  • Kyle Orton has been a good quarterback so far this year. Honestly, that's the part that I just don't understand--Kyle Orton? Good Quarterback? Huh? Anyway, he's thrown 8 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions, has completed 61.6% of his passes and is averaging 6.25 yards per passing attempt. If the Vikings can get to him, however, he'll crumble under the pressure--in each of the two games in which he was sacked more than two times, he threw 2 interceptions. His offensive line isn't anything to write home about either--they're 18th in adjusted sack rate, while the Vikings' defensive line is 10th.
  • Historically, 3-3 teams have made the playoffs 40% of the time. 49% of 4-3 teams have made it, while only 20.2% of 3-4 teams have made it. Football Outsiders give the Vikings a 23.1% chance of making the playoffs, less than half of the chance they give the Packers and Bears, and a decrease of 2.1%. The Vikings may have won that game, but the way they performed did not say good things about their ability to win future games.

Thursday, October 09, 2008

Punting, Big Plays and the Pass Rush

  • The Vikings currently have the worst special teams unit in the NFL, ranking last in DVOA. Naturally, Brad Childress has chosen to react to this by bringing in random people to challenge Chris Kluwe for the punting job. Obviously, Kluwe had an awful game against the Saints. That being said, an equal amount of blame needs to be placed on the coverage unit. Kluwe's one of the better punters in the NFL. He didn't look like it on Monday Night, but it doesn't matter if you have Ray Guy punting for you if your entire cover unit has no lane discipline and lets themselves get blocked.
  • Unlike last year, when the Vikings were tied for fifth in "Net Big Plays" at +18 (and had the second most big plays, behind only San Diego, with 61), the Purple this year have given up more big plays than they've made and are currently tied for 22nd, with a -3 Net Big Plays. The problem isn't because they aren't making big plays, however (they're tied for 5th with 17), it's because they're giving them up at an almost alarming rate of four per game. The 20 they've given up is the second most in the NFL (behind only the 49ers) and almost half of the 43 they gave up in 16 games last year. Luckily for the Vikings, the Lions are among the worst at making big plays, and are tied with the Dolphin for last, with only 5. Detroit's net is the worst in the NFL as well, at -13.
  • Despite bringing in Jared Allen, the Vikings' pass rush remains below average, and has actually been about the same as it was last year. The Purple had an adjusted sack rate of 5.5% last year. This year, it's 5.6%. Now, that doesn't factor in the fact that the Vikings have faced two quarterbacks who are almost impossible to bring down due to their quick releases. Peyton Manning has only been sacked 2.8% of the time he's dropped back to pass in his career, and Drew Brees' sack rate is 3.9% (remember, everyone was excited about Frerotte's low career sack rate of 6.0%). Luckily, they don't have to worry about Jon Kitna's ability to get rid of the ball quickly--his sack rate with the Lions is 9.2% (assuming he's able to play despite his back injury, which happened during one of the 15 times he's been sacked this year).
  • If you're looking for a reason not to trust Football Outsiders' stats, I've got one for you--Gus Frerotte is 12th in DYAR and 11th in DVOA among quarterbacks so far. He's ahead of Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisburger and his soulmate, Kerry Collins. I have a feeling this will work itself out--as I said during the game, while Gus Frerotte has been a better quarterback than Tarvaris Jackson so far, he's by no means been a good quarterback.
  • The Vikings are the only team in the division to beat a team above .500 so far. They're also the only team to beat two teams in the top 15 in DVOA. Chicago's the only NFC North team to beat a top 5 DVOA team, however, with their win against the Eagles and both Chicago (11th) and Green Bay (18th) have a higher DVOA than the Vikings (19th).