Punting, Big Plays and the Pass Rush

• The Vikings currently have the worst special teams unit in the NFL, ranking last in DVOA. Naturally, Brad Childress has chosen to react to this by bringing in random people to challenge Chris Kluwe for the punting job. Obviously, Kluwe had an awful game against the Saints. That being said, an equal amount of blame needs to be placed on the coverage unit. Kluwe's one of the better punters in the NFL. He didn't look like it on Monday Night, but it doesn't matter if you have Ray Guy punting for you if your entire cover unit has no lane discipline and lets themselves get blocked.

• Unlike last year, when the Vikings were tied for fifth in "Net Big Plays" at +18 (and had the second most big plays, behind only San Diego, with 61), the Purple this year have given up more big plays than they've made and are currently tied for 22nd, with a -3 Net Big Plays. The problem isn't because they aren't making big plays, however (they're tied for 5th with 17), it's because they're giving them up at an almost alarming rate of four per game. The 20 they've given up is the second most in the NFL (behind only the 49ers) and almost half of the 43 they gave up in 16 games last year. Luckily for the Vikings, the Lions are among the worst at making big plays, and are tied with the Dolphin for last, with only 5. Detroit's net is the worst in the NFL as well, at -13.
  

• Despite bringing in Jared Allen, the Vikings' pass rush remains below average, and has actually been about the same as it was last year. The Purple had an adjusted sack rate of 5.5% last year. This year, it's 5.6%. Now, that doesn't factor in the fact that the Vikings have faced two quarterbacks who are almost impossible to bring down due to their quick releases. Peyton Manning has only been sacked 2.8% of the time he's dropped back to pass in his career, and Drew Brees' sack rate is 3.9% (remember, everyone was excited about Frerotte's low career sack rate of 6.0%). Luckily, they don't have to worry about Jon Kitna's ability to get rid of the ball quickly--his sack rate with the Lions is 9.2% (assuming he's able to play despite his back injury, which happened during one of the 15 times he's been sacked this year).

• If you're looking for a reason not to trust Football Outsiders' stats, I've got one for you--Gus Frerotte is 12th in DYAR and 11th in DVOA among quarterbacks so far. He's ahead of Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisburger and his soulmate, Kerry Collins. I have a feeling this will work itself out--as I said during the game, while Gus Frerotte has been a better quarterback than Tarvaris Jackson so far, he's by no means been a good quarterback.
  

• The Vikings are the only team in the division to beat a team above .500 so far. They're also the only team to beat two teams in the top 15 in DVOA. Chicago's the only NFC North team to beat a top 5 DVOA team, however, with their win against the Eagles and both Chicago (11th) and Green Bay (18th) have a higher DVOA than the Vikings (19th).

Solving Our Problems: Jared Allen

In case you somehow managed to miss the news, the Chiefs are shopping Jared Allen. That's right, Jared "lead the NFL in sacks despite missing two games" Allen is available for the right price, and the Vikings seem to have the best chance to acquire him.

Now, before we go any further, let's all take a deep breath, center our selves, and think about this analytically. Now, obviously, adding an elite pass rusher is the Vikings' main goal at this point. So, is Allen an elite pass rusher? Let's go to the stats and find out. Allen has 43 sacks in 61 career games, including 15.5 last season, where he missed the first two games due to suspension (don't worry, I'm going to get to that later). That means he has a sack rate of 11.28 sacks per 16 games. His worst year, 2006, he had 7.5 sacks, a number that would have lead the Vikings last year. And Kansas City had the third highest adjusted sack rate last year, bested only by the Patriots and the Giants. The Vikings were 28th. Allen is also good against the run, averaging over 56 tackles a year, a number dragged down by his rookie total of 30 tackles, and one which still would have been the 8th best on the Purple. And while he may still be the focus of opposing blocking schemes, he'll also be paired with the Williams and young pass rushers Ray Edwards and Brian Robison, which means that offenses will get to decide which player sacks their quarterback, but they won't be able to stop the Vikings from getting to him.

Now that we've come to the conclusion that Jared Allen is, in fact, an elite pass rusher (yeah, I know, a tough decision), it's time to consider the cost of acquiring him. The Chiefs have placed their franchise tag on him, which means that, technically, the Vikings could sign him right now. In order to do so, however, they'd have to give up two first round picks, one from this year, and one from next year. Obviously, they aren't going to do that, which means that, in order to trade him, the Chiefs have to accept something less than two first rounders. Rumor is that the Vikings are considering offering their first round pick this year and their second round pick next year for Allen. If the Chiefs prefer picks from this year's draft, that means that they'll likely have to accept a third round pick instead of a second rounder. The Vikings have the 17th, 47th, 73rd and 82nd picks. Ideally, they'd be able to convince the Chiefs to take the 82nd pick, along with the 17th, but, due to Tampa Bay's interest, they may have to deal the 73rd pick instead. Tampa has the 20th, 52nd and 80th pick, but only have 5 total draft picks this year, which makes each of their picks more valuable to them, and the Vikings can easily outbid them, as their picks are all higher than the Bucs'. Are a first and third round pick worth trading for an elite pass rusher? In a word--Yes. Odds are the Purple would be using one of those picks (if not both) on a defensive end anyway, and it's much better to get a proven commodity than have to take a chance on an unknown, when the proven commodity is very, very good.

Even if the Vikings reach a deal with the Chiefs, they're still going to have to reach a deal with Jared Allen. Rumor is that he wants Dwight Freeney money, which means a contract that is around six-years, for $72 million and $30 million guaranteed. To put that in context, the Purple were willing to offer an inferior end, Justin Smith, $20 million in guaranteed money and a six year contract for $45 million. Is Allen worth the cash? Well, yes, and no.

Yes, because Allen is only 26 years old, and likely to continue to be effective for the length of the contract and because that's the going rate for elite pass rushers. No, because Allen's already managed to pick up two DUI's in his four years, which is the reason why he served a two game suspension last year (which was originally four games). He says he has stopped drinking, which I'm willing to believe, but I'm not the one guaranteeing him $30 million dollars. I'm not sure how the Vikings can square trading for Allen with their "Culture of Accountability", nor am I sure if guaranteeing $30 million to a player who has already had his second strike is a good idea. The Vikings are supposedly considering trading Bryant McKinnie because of the fight he was allegedly involved in (remember, he hasn't been convicted of anything yet). And while it was McKinnie's fourth arrest, unlike Allen, he hasn't been found in violation of the NFL conduct policy for the second time yet. A third violation would likely mean a year long suspension, and the Vikings might not be able to recover the money they guaranteed Allen, and they certainly wouldn't be able to recover the draft picks they gave up to get him.

So, do I make this trade if I'm the Vikings? I think so. I have no problem with giving up a first and a third rounder this year (or a first rounder and a second rounder for next year) for a talent like Allen. Nor do I have a problem with paying a player like him the money he wants. If I'm the Vikings though, I'm making damned sure that he is telling the truth about learning from his past mistakes. Because I have a problem with the Vikings signing a player with two DUIs that hasn't made a change to their lifestyle. And that's what this deal hinges on--can the Vikings trust Allen to be a model citizen? If so, he's the answer to their problems. If not, this trade isn't worth it. So, do you trust Zygi, Spielman and Childress to make the right call on Jared Allen's character?

Solving Our Problems: Second Round Defensive Ends

If the Vikings don't take a defensive end in the first round, they're going to have to consider taking one in the second round. Whether there will be one worth drafting with the 47th pick, is a whole 'nother question. There are three defensive ends who look like second round picks, Calais Campbell, a junior from Miami, Quentin Groves, a senior from Auburn, and Cliff Avril, a senior from Purdue. Don't be surprised to see Lawrence Jackson from USC go in the second round as well.

Calais Cambell- 6'8", 282 LBs, Miami

Campbell looked like a top 15 pick after his sophomore year, where he dominated the ACC, racking up 10.5 sacks and 20.5 tackles for a loss. He was living up to his hype as the favorite for the Ted Hendricks award through his first 5 games, with 4.5 sacks and 7 TFL. He fell off dramatically after that, only getting 1.5 more sacks and 5.5 more TFL through the last 6 games. His size, reach, athleticism, tackling, motor and quickness all scream "First Rounder", but his fall off in production, tendency to play too high and mediocre showing at the Combine (5.04 forty, 7.45 second 3 cone drill) mean he'll likely fall to the second round. How far he'll fall is the question, but he'd be a good choice for the Purple if they think his junior year was the real Campbell.

Quentin Groves-6'3", 250 LBs, Auburn

With the recent revelation that he had heart surgery, Groves is now damaged goods. He is the all time sack leader at Auburn, has the speed, quickness and strength to be a force coming off of the edge, but he also had a heart condition serious enough to warrant surgery. Any team looking to draft him had better trust their medical staff to check him out properly before drafting him, that's for sure. Groves might not be the best fit for the Purple, since, at 250 pounds, he's small for a 4-3 defensive end, and would likely have trouble going one on one every play with the much bigger NFL offensive tackles, especially since he has a limited repertoire of moves. He'd be a much better fit at outside linebacker in a 3-4, but with his speed and quickness (he ran a 4.57 forty and a 4.42 20 yard shuttle), its not unreasonable to think he could be a poor man's version of Javon Kearse (Kearse is only 263 lbs). He wasn't as quick in the 3 cone drill, running it in 7.31 seconds (6.90 seconds was the best time), so he might not be as quick as he'd need to be to play as an undersized defensive end.

Cliff Avril--6'3", 252 LBs, Purdue

Like Groves, Avril has the skills and speed to be an undersized speed rusher, but would likely be better as a linebacker. Unlike Groves, however, Avril's didn't start playing defensive end until part of the way through his junior year. Once he moved, however, he flourished, racking up 6 sacks his junior year and 6.5 sacks as a senior. He also caused six fumbles in his two years and had 30 tackles for a loss. He's exceptionally quick, running the fastest 3 cone drill by a defensive lineman (6.90 seconds) and his time would have put him in the top ten amongst running backs and linebackers as well. Avril has the burst to get by offensive linemen, and while he will likely struggle against NFL tackles that he can't get by with his quickness, he has some good pass rush moves, and can use his hands to keep blockers off his body and get separation. He has trouble against double teams as well, but that shouldn't be much of a problem on the Vikings' defensive line. He's decent against the run, but had some problem bringing down the bigger backs he faced.

Lawrence Jackson, 6'5", 268 LBs, USC

Jackson's a hard working end from USC that has injury and consistency concerns. He plays the run well, and when he's hot, he can be a pass rushing force. He has the quickness you want in a defense end, running a 4.40 2o yard shuttle and a 7.08 second 3 cone drill (both were top ten amongst defensive lineman at the combine), but his motor is questionable, and he seems to disappear for long stretches of time. When he's playing well, he keeps separation, displaying good pass rush moves and fights through blocks. When he isn't, he can be controlled relatively easily. He was on a lot his senior year, racking up 10.5 sacks and 17 TFL, but it needs to be mentioned that he also shared the line with a dominant partner, possible top 5 pick, Sedrick Ellis. Jackson has also been compared by scouts to Kenechi Udeze, which isn't bad, but isn't exactly the highest compliment for a pass rusher.

Solving Our Problems: Phillip Merling

[With Free Agency all but over, it's time to take a look at who the Vikings might select in the first round with the #17 pick. Today, we're previewing Chris Williams, an offensive tackle from Vanderbilt. Previously, I previewed Derrick Harvey, a defensive end from Florida, Chris Williams, an offensive tackle from Vanderbilt and Malcolm Kelly, a wide receiver from Oklahoma]


Many of the mock drafts, knowing the Vikings' need for a pass rusher, but thinking that Derrick Harvey will be drafted higher than #17, have guessed that the Vikings will draft Phillip Merling, a junior defensive end from Clemson. It makes a certain amount of sense-Merling is the only other defensive end seen as a mid first round pick aside from Harvey. Of course, like all things, it's slightly more complicated than that. As you may have heard, Merling hasn't yet worked out for anybody due to a sports hernia, an injury for which he just underwent surgery.

According to about.com, a sports hernia is "a weakening of the muscles or tendons of the lower abdominal wall". It's not a muscle injury, however. "The problem with the abdominal wall in people with a sports hernia is not a muscle strength issue. Rather, the abdominal wall in a particular region is too thin, allowing the hernia to form. The sports hernia does not occur in the area of the large, thick part of the muscle." It usually requires surgery, and it takes about 8 weeks to recover from the surgery. Which means that the Vikings, were they to draft Merling, would be drafting someone they had never seen workout in person, and someone coming off an injury that sidelined him for months. Not exactly the recipe for a successful draft pick.

Aside from that whole surgery thing, Merling does have quite a lot going for him. He racked up 7 sacks and 17 TFLs as a junior, despite being the primary focus of opposing blocking schemes. He's a big guy, standing 6'4" and weighing in (pre surgery) at 276 pounds. He has a good burst as well, but he isn't so fast that he can just run past offensive tackles. He has enough moves, however, that he can get off of a block, and he routinely showed the ability to split the double team his junior year. He also plays the run well, is a solid tackler and was routinely praised for his backside pursuit, all of which he displayed while making 78 tackles last year.

The surgery wasn't the only question about Merling, however. Despite having Gaines Adams (4th overall pick in 2007) to draw the offense's focus, he only had 3 sacks his sophomore year. His 12 career sacks aren't as impressive when one considers that he played in the worst BCS conference. He also lacks the speed and quickness that a dominant pass rusher needs in the NFL, and he never displayed the strength necessary to compensate, leaving him as something of a tweener. Big linemen were able to swallow him up, and his burst, reactions and pass rush were significantly worse when he was set then when he was moving in a stunt or a twist.

With a good workout, in which he was able to address the questions about his speed, quickness and strength, Merling might have been able to justify his selection at #17. He wasn't able to work out, however, and is likely even further behind where a first round pick should be, in terms of conditioning, strength and ability to make an immediate impact. You only get one chance to make a first impression, and Merling missed his chance because of an injury. It would be a mistake for the Vikings' to draft him in the first round because they need a defensive end, when other talented players are available at other positions that the Vikings could use more talent at.

Solving Our Problems: Derrick Harvey

[Solving Our Problems is an ongoing series here at the Ragnarok where I evaluate the Vikings' options going into the offseason. I started by looking at the quarterback options, examining Derek Anderson, Donovan McNabb and possible backups for Tarvaris Jackson. I've tried to figure out who the QB is going to throw to, starting with free agents Bernard Berrian and Donte Stallworth, and taken a detour to look at a safety the Vikings might sign, Madieu Williams. While detouring, I figured that it might be worth it to look at another QB the Vikings might end up with, Sage Rosenfels. Now that free agency is all but over, it's time to look at some of the Vikings' draft options, starting with Derrick Harvey, a junior end from Florida.]

Derrick Harvey, a redshirt junior out of Florida, is perhaps the best defensive end that could be available to the Vikings (I've yet to see a mock draft where Chris Long or Vernon Gholston drops out of the top ten). He's almost 6'5, weighs about 271 lbs and is cat quick, something he demonstrated in his last two years at Florida, where he racked up 11 sacks and 13 tackles for a loss his sophomore year and 8.5 sacks and 17 tackles for a loss his junior year. His junior year production was enough to lead the Gators in both sacks and tackles, and both totals were fifth in the SEC, despite being the main focus of opposing teams pass protection schemes. He has a reputation as a good run stopper as well, as can be seen by how many tackles he made in the backfield.

Harvey isn't perfect, however. 271 is undersized for a defensive end (though not undersized for the Vikings, where he would be the third heaviest end, behind Keneci Udeze and Jayme Mitchell) and his 4.83 forty time isn't great. Neither his weight, nor his forty time are worth worrying about. While he was overpowered by larger tackles at times, he was still very productive despite facing tackles that weighed an average of 311 pounds. And he's shown that he can put on weight, as he entered college weighing only 235 pounds. Of course, if he adds too much weight, he'll lose the main reason for his success: his quickness. His forty time doesn't stick out, but that doesn't matter as much as his initial first step, something scouts are raving about.

Harvey has the quickness, the production and the upside that you want in your first round pick. He would also help address a position of need for the Purple, and could have an impact in his rookie year, just like another speed demon who left Florida early after winning a national title in his redshirt sophomore year.

[If you're looking for draft information, I recommend NFL Draft Countdown and NFL Draft Scout, both of which are also linked on the sidebar.]

The Tyranny of Veterans and A Lack of Defensive Ends

The Vikings have been riding high since the beginning of free agency. They've addressed their needs at fullback, safety and wide receiver, watched the star quarterback of the division favorite retire and laughed as the two teams they finished ahead of last year got worse. Aside from the Favre retirement, however, they have had mixed results this week, signing running back/return specialist Maurice Hicks and scheduling multiple visits with defensive ends that never happened.

Maurice Hicks
I'm with Pacifist Viking on this one--I don't understand this signing. It seems that Hicks is meant to replace Mewelde Moore, who signed with the Steelers, as the third down back and punt returner. The thing is, the Vikings don't really need the former, and Hicks has no experience with the latter. With Chester Taylor and the Purple Jesus, the Vikings don't really need to worry too much about finding a third down back, which is one of the main reasons that Moore is now wearing Black and Gold. With the talent ahead of him, Hicks should only be used if needed due to injuries, because he doesn't add anything in the passing game that Taylor or Peterson does, averaging less than a catch a game for 7.7 yards over his four years. If he is needed to step up due to injury, however, he should be fine, as he has a career rushing average of 4.2 yards per carry.

So as added depth at running back, Hicks is a fine signing. As a return specialist, however, he's surprisingly inexperienced at the position the Vikings need him most--punt returner. He's never returned a punt in the NFL. With the loss of Moore, only Bobby Wade and Charles Gordon (who, in 2006, returned 1 punt for 1 yard) have any experiencing returning punts on the Vikings' roster. As the starting slot receiver, Wade is too important to the offense to spend a lot of time returning punts, and there's obviously a reason why Gordon only got one chance. Which likely means that the Purple are going to try Hicks back there, something that isn't ideal. Returning punts is, in my opinion, harder than returning kickoffs, because the punt returner has to make their decision more quickly and has to do so while the coverage team converges on them. Kick returners usually have a little more time, and can catch the ball without worrying about getting drilled immediately or whether they need to call a fair catch. Any decision they make comes after the catch, which is why returning punts isn't necessarily something you want an inexperienced player doing.

The other reason the Hicks signing seems like a mistake is that the Purple already have a solid kick returner. Aundrae Allison averaged 28.7 yards on 20 returns last year, including a franchise record 104 yard return for a touchdown. That performance, however, wasn't enough to keep Allison as the return man all year, as Childress had Adrian Peterson returning kicks in Week 17. In contrast, Hicks returned 63 kicks for an average of 23.8 yards per return last year and has a career average of 22.9 yards per return. He has 185 career returns, but he's never returned a kick for touchdown and he's only returned 8 kicks for more than 40 yards, something Allison has already done three times. In fact, the Hicks signing seems like it was made to allow Childress to go with the "veteran" over the more talented and explosive second year player, a mistake the Purple can't afford with their offensive deficiencies.

Defensive Ends
The only one of their weaknesses that the Vikings have yet to address is defensive end. They've scheduled multiple visits with free agent pass rushers, but have yet to have any make it to Winter Park, watching Justin Smith, Antwan Odom and Javon Kearse sign with other teams. The thing is, I'm not sure that any of them were the answer. Smith was mediocre last year, only notching 2.5 sacks, has never been dominant (his career high is 8.5 sacks in his rookie year) and signed a huge contract with the 49ers, which the Vikings would have had to match if they'd signed him. Odom had a breakout year last year with 8 sacks, but had never had more than 2 in a season before that. And Kearse's injury history (he hasn't played in 16 games in a season since 2001) , which has been matched by a performance decline, should have told everyone that he was not the answer to the Purple's pass rush problems.

It's for those reasons that I don't think the Vikings need to be too worried about their inability to land a pass rusher in free agency. Nor do I think that they need to be as worried about their pass rush going into next year, because they have two young defensive ends in Brian Robison and Ray Edwards that have shown the ability to get to the quarterback. Robison was a rookie last year, and Edwards was only in his second year, and despite Robison hitting the proverbial rookie wall and Edwards "missing" the last four games of the year, Robison had 4.5 sacks and Edwards had 5, tying them for fourth and first overall. A full offseason of NFL training for Robison and a full season from Edwards should allow both of them to take another step toward becoming an elite pass rusher. And any improvement on the ends will likely lead to an improvement in the middle, as it will take opponents' focus away from the Williams.

The real problem lies with the Vikings' lack of depth behind Robison and Edwards. Darrion Scott is an unrestricted free agent, Keneci Udeze is likely out for the year because of leukemia and Erasmus James is coming off of another injury and has only played 8 games in the last two years. Jayme Mitchell and Otis Grigsby are still on the roster, and while Mitchell is good enough to be a part of the defensive end rotation (Grigsby is roster filler) neither is good enough to be a major part of the rotation.

What this means is that the Vikings have to find quality players to support Robison and Edwards, something that isn't readily available in the free agent market (the complete list is available here). So the Purple likely will look to the draft to provide their young defensive line with more depth. As I've said before, there are quite a few quality ends available, and, with the Berrian signing, the Vikings can focus on their pass rush in the draft, something I'll be doing next week, barring anything crazy happening.

A Smattering of Thoughts As Hope Ends

The Domination Continues
Bryant Westbrook rushed for 46 yards on 21 carries. That's 2.2 yards per carry. This wasn't a case of a team choosing not to run. Rather, it was a case of a defense shutting down the run completely. As I mentioned when I named E.J. Henderson today's 1st Star, Westbrook is an elite back. He was averaging 5.5 yards per carry prior to today, and he's averaged 4.78 yards per carry for his career. And the Vikings held him to 2.2 yards per carry. The pass defense might be frustrating, but it's almost worth it if it means that I get to watch the Vikings dominate the run like they did today. Almost.

My Kingdom for a Pass Rush
The Eagles had ten drives and punted four times. The last punt came after the Eagles ran the ball three straight times while killing the clock. The other two punts in the second half came on drives where the Vikings sacked Donovan McNabb. That's not a coincidence. The coverage hasn't been as good this year as it was last year, but that's only part of the problem with the Vikings' problems against the pass. You can't cover a receiver forever. And while the Vikings are averaging almost one more sack per game than they did last year, it isn't enough, especially when you consider that the Vikings have seen more pass attempts than any other team, and that they get a sack once every 16.7 plays.

Stop Me Before I Challenge Again
One of the most infuriating things about the instant replay era has to be the Vikings inability to use their challenges properly. Mike Tice was awful at it, and so is Brad Childress. I'm not going to go into Tice's incompetence, but Childress wasted both of the Vikings' challenges today in his typical fashion. There's a poker saying that goes "Don't throw good money after bad", which warns poker players against continuing to bet when they know the pot is already lost. Based on how he uses his challenges, I'd bet that Childress hasn't heard that saying. Almost all of his challenges seem to come after frustrating plays, and they almost always seem to be an attempt to fix a mistake that can't be fixed. His use of a challenge after Peterson stepped out of bounds on the opening kickoff of the second half is a perfect example of this phenomenon. The replays clearly showed that Peterson had caught the ball and then stepped out of bounds. Yet Childress insisted on challenging it, throwing the good money (the challenge and the timeout) after the bad (Peterson's mistake).

Still the Leader
I've accepted that the Vikings aren't going to the playoffs (more on this tomorrow). It wasn't easy to do (you may have noticed that I'm quite good at convincing myself that the Vikings still have a chance, no matter the odds). When the Vikings were eliminated last year, I changed my focus from rooting for a win to rooting for the defense's quest to set the record for fewest rushing yards allowed. As you know, they didn't get it. Still, it gave me a reason to care about the last game of the season.

This year, my focus is going to be on the Purple Jesus' quest to lead the NFL in rushing. Despite the fact that he's only rushed for 133 yards over the last two games, Peterson is still hanging onto the league lead with 740 yards. Willie Parker, with 726 yards, is the only one within 100 yards of him (Willis McGahee is in third with 639 yards). All of the backs in the top ten have had their bye weeks at this point, so they all have the same amount of games remaining. I don't know if the Purple Jesus will be able to rebound from his past two games, but I pray that he does, because there's not a whole lot of other reasons to care about what happens over the next nine games.

The Lions Offense

In Week 14 of last year, the Vikings defense held the Lions to -4 rushing yards in a game. Of course, the Lions only ran the ball ten times, opting, like pretty much every other team, to attack the Purple through the air. They’re likely to continue that pass first strategy on Sunday, considering they’ve added Calvin Johnson to a potent air attack.

Luckily for the Vikings, they’ve improved their pass defense, specifically their pass rush. They turned in a -52.9% DVOA against the pass in Week 1, the 7^th best VOA total. This was a vast improvement over their below average DVOA of 3.7% in 2006. Not all that surprising, given their six sacks and two interceptions. [Note: The 2007 numbers have not been adjusted for opponent, while the 2006 numbers have.]

The Lions’ air attack was also improved in Week 1, with a 17.3% VOA, 9^th best in the league. That was much better than the -.02% DVOA in 2006. Aside from getting to play a porous pass defense, there were a few other reasons for the improvement. The Lions’ negative pass play percentage dropped from 12.9% to 10.52%. They also gave up half as many sacks as their 2006 average, only giving up two to the Raiders. While that doesn’t sound great, it’s much better than the 3.94 per game they averaged last year. The Raiders anemic pass rush probably had a lot to do with it, as the Lions only addition on the line was Edwin Mulitalo at left guard. Mulitalo started four games for the Ravens in 2006 before losing his job in Week 5. He’s not exactly a Steve Hutchinson like addition, to say the least.

The Lions offense also benefited from what seems to be a much improved rushing game, with Tatum Bell going for 87 yards on 15 carries and a touchdown. In fact, they had the NFL’s best rushing VOA at 38.6%. Of course, there was nowhere for them to go but up, as they finished with an NFL worst -24.7% DVOA when rushing the ball, but going from worst to first is still surprising. Also, their 5.14 yards per carry was the sixth best in Week 1. The Raiders weren’t that bad against the run last year either, allowing the 11^th least YPC (3.96) and a -1.6% DVOA against the run, the 16^th best total.

Statistics with small sample sizes can do funny things. In this case, they show a Lions offense that’s amongst the best in the NFL at running the ball while still featuring a potent air attack. The thing is, the Vikings defense is still quite capable of stopping the run, as they clamped down on a Falcons team that was the best in the league last year at running the ball. And the Purple also discovered a pass rush, something they’ll continue to display against a Lions offensive line that gives up sacks like they’re good things. Look for the defense to spend a lot of time in the backfield with Jon Kitna on Sunday. If the Vikings create fewer than two turnovers, I’ll be shocked.

[All stats in this post are from Football Outsiders and Cold, Hard Football Facts]

16-0 Still a Possibility

How's that for some irrational exuberance? The Vikings defense was dominant in all aspects of the game and the Tarvaris and Purple Jesus Show was good enough to leave Purple fans dreaming of the Playoffs.

The biggest change from last season was the amount of pressure the Vikings were able to generate whenever Joey Harrington dropped back to pass. The six sacks they totaled was a fifth of the sacks they had last year. The fourth rounder out of Texas, Brian Robison, continued to play like he did in the preseason, dropping Harrington twice. While that was nice, it wasn't necessarily surprising. What was surprising were the two sacks by E.J. Henderson (he's never had more than three in a season) and the game ender by Keneci Udeze. I hope I wasn't the only one who got a kick out of Karl Hobbs jumping on Udeze after the play. Now, the next step is for Udeze to get a sack during a more meaningful part of the game. Baby steps...Baby steps...

To use a forced segue, one player that doesn't need to take baby steps is Adrian Peterson. What speed, what power, what vision. There's a reason why he was the 1st Star of the Game. And why he's going to rack up a lot of accolades this year and for the foreseeable future. The injury to Chester Taylor is troublesome, however. Lest we forget, Adrian Peterson's has a long history of injuries, something sharing the carries with Taylor was supposed to help with. It doesn't seem like Taylor is going to miss any more time because of his bruised hip, but it's important that he play so that Peterson doesn't have to carry the entire load.

Any injury to Peterson would likely be devastating to an offense that is still trying to establish a real passing game. The Vikings took quite a few shots down field yesterday, something they hadn't done with Brad Johnson under center (Tarvaris having the ability to throw the ball further than 10 yards helped), but the Revolution wasn't able to connect with Sidney Rice or Troy Williamson down field, with his deepest pass going to Bobby Wade for a 28 yard gain. What he was able to do, however, was hit his receivers in stride, go through his progressions and keep plays alive by avoiding the rush in ways a less mobile quarterback would have been unable to. The best example of that was on a play that ended in an incomplete pass. During that play, Tarvaris rolled right, avoiding a Falcon in the backfield, only to have the defense end grab him and attempt to drag him down. The Revolution cannot be suppressed that easily, however. Tarvaris kept his feet, but just barely, and as the end continued to pull him down, Tarvaris flung the ball over the his head, out of bounds, avoiding what should have been an easy sack. Tarvaris hit Bobby Wade for 28 yards on the very next play on a drive that ended with the Vikings kicking a field goal. The Vikings' offense doesn't have the playmakers to overcome negative plays like sacks and penalties. Tarvaris' strength and mobility will go a long way towards preventing the Purple from giving up as many sacks as they did last year (they gave up 43, the 8th most in the NFL). The Purple also played an almost penalty free game on offense, only being flagged once, for Artis Hicks holding.

While it was clear that the offense needs to score more than ten points, the defense looks like it's fixed the only problem it had, the pass rush. As Tarvaris gets more comfortable in the pocket, those deep passes that fell incomplete on Sunday will become completions. And if the defense can stop the run and the pass, then those completions will be more then enough to get the Purple the wins they need to make the playoffs.

Unanswered Defensive Questions

Remember when Brian Robison and Ray Edwards were the Truth, the Answer, the Solution? Remember when they were going to team with a healthy Erasmus James to crash down upon opposing quarterbacks with unstoppable force?

Yeah...That was fun while it lasted.

Robison, Edwards and James (who was in for 18 plays) couldn't get past the Seahawks backup left tackle on Saturday. It's definitely not a good sign that a team can keep its All Pro LT on the bench and still not have any problems keeping the Vikings away from its quarterback. And it's not like the ends were opening things up for everyone else either, as the Vikings failed to record a sack. The good thing is that James was seeing his first action of the year and he didn't have any setbacks. The bad thing is that, well, the Vikings only had 30 sacks last year (7th least in the NFL), despite the fact other teams dropped back to pass 629 times against them(Most in the NFL). The Vikings weren't planning on counting on Edwards and Robison to turn around their pass rush--that's James' job. And while he didn't accomplish much in his 18 plays, his knee responded well. Finding out whether or not he can get to the quarterback will have to wait. It's too bad we already know that the other starting end cannot.

The Vikings' also avoided providing more info on which of their five safeties they are going to keep. Darren Sharper and Dwight Smith are locks for the team, which means Mike Doss, Greg Blue and Tank Williams are fighting for two roster spots. Doss didn't play against the Seahawks due to a calf injury, and neither Blue nor Williams made too much of an impact that I saw. Due to an undisclosed injury to Tank Williams and the fact that Doss continues to miss practice, it appears that Greg Blue is going to have all the opportunity in the world to win a roster spot against Dallas on Thursday. He's already got an advantage because he's younger and he's cheaper. He also, as you may recall, made "JACKED UP" last year for a hit against Buffalo. Definitely doesn't hurt.

Seahawks-Vikings: THE REMATCH...

Saturday's the Vikings' third preseason game (which, loyal readers, I'm sure you already knew), meaning that Saturday night will be the closest we get to watching a real football game until Week One, as well as the last chance for players to make a good impression, lest they get sent to the chopping block (There's a solid breakdown of the Vikings' likely cuts over at KFAN.com) . And hopefully, it'll involve a few more passes by the Revolution. Aside from hoping that Tarvaris will be a tad bit more involved, there's quite a few other things to watch for:

• How will the newcomers fit in? Can Robert Ferguson show off the talent that lead the Packers to draft him in the second round? Has Fred Evans time in the legal world left him rusty and forlorn? Or will he take out his anger and frustration on the Seahawks?

• Will any of the safeties stand out? It's not that any of them have played poorly, rather, they've all played well, which likely puts Tank Williams as the odd man out, since Greg Blue is a cheaper, younger version of him. So will Tank Williams, Mike Doss or Greg Blue step up their game and insure they get a roster spot?

• Can the special teams units do a better job in winning the field position battle? Will Alex Reyes pull a Bo Jackson after another of his kick offs doesn't go past the twenty and just keep running into the locker room and right off the roster? Is Aundrae Allison going to be returning kicks for the Purple, or will Robert Ferguson or Chandler Williams steal the spot away?
  

• Which of the wide receivers are going to make the team? Troy Williamson, Sydney Rice, Robert Ferguson, Bobby Wade and Aundrae Allison seem to be locks for the team. That leaves Williams, Martin Nance, Billy McMullin and Todd Lowbar competing for the sixtha and final spot. I'd hate to see the Vikings lose Chandler Williams, their seventh rounder. He hasn't caught a pass in a preseason game yet, but he's played well in practice and has the longest kick return for the Vikings' so far (28 yards).
  

• The Vikings have had a lot of success rushing the passer with Brian Robison and Ray Edwards at defensive end. How will the return of Erasmus James play into that? And how is James knee going to hold up in live action? Does he still have the speed and quickness he had prior to the injury? I certainly hope so, because, with the way Robison and Edwards are playing, a healthy James could be the difference between a pass rush that's "better than last year's" and a "great pass rush".
  

• Drew Henson sucks. Will he continue to be a bad quarterback, or will he tantalize the coaching staff with a good performance, thus costing the Vikings the man, the myth, the legend(#16)--Tyler Thigpen. [Thanks to Bob D. for the Youtube link]
  

Nothing Like a "W"

I started with the Ugly from the Viking's second pre-season game yesterday, which means I'm a bit out of order, but that won't stop us from getting into the good signs from Friday's victory over the Jets. So without further ado, what I liked from the game (aside from the turnovers and the win, of course):

• Chad Greenway is a stud. There was the interception, but that wasn't the only time his coverage was impressive. He was all over Leon Washington like cheese on pizza, white on rice, or Pacifist Viking on an overused cliche. He led the team with four tackles and generally looked like he'd actually played last year. What was that other guy's name? Napoleon something?
  

• For those who've been saying that the addition of Adrian Peterson gave the Vikings one of the best two back tandems in the league--I agree. Jesus--the breakaway speed, the moves (I think he gave Andre Dyson whiplash with that spin move), the punishing of the defense--it was so beautiful. That all being said, I wouldn't mind if he avoided unnecessary contact. I'm still a little worried about his shoulder and the Vikings need Peterson's breakaway ability, something Chester Taylor can't provide (aside from his 95 yard run, Taylor's longest runs were 42 yds and 33 yds and those were the only three rushes he had over thirty yards.)

• Ray Edwards and Brian Robison look like they're going to be the answer to the Vikings' pass rush needs. Robison has two sacks and a forced fumble already and Edwards has constantly been in the backfield. It's already paying dividends on the interior as well by preventing defenses from focusing on Kevin Williams as much, allowing him to pressure the quarterback as well.
  

• Ryan Longwell's 54 yard field goal, combined with his two conversions on two other field goals, were reassuring after he missed a potential game winner from 42 yards in the first preseason game.

• I really, truly enjoyed Kevin Williams destroying the 6'6 310lb D'Brickashaw Ferguson on Darren Sharper's interception return. That might have been my favorite play of the game, aside from Peterson's spin move. Williams just absolutely leveled Ferguson.
  

Tomorrow: The Bad

Excited for the First Round? Don't Be.

Let's get this out of the way: Calvin Johnson and Joe Thomas are not going to be drafted by the Vikings unless the Vikings' trade up. And the Vikings should not trade up--it would cost too many picks they need to fill other holes and because I'm just now getting over the Herschel Walker trade. With those two gone, we're left with six players that could be holding up a purple #1 jersey on Saturday, three on each side of the ball: JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Adrian Peterson, LaRon Landry, Jamaal Anderson and Gaines Adams.

Of course, as we've seen already, what a team does with the #7 pick is largely dependent on what the six teams ahead of them do. Of those six, as many as four players might be drafted before the Vikings go on the clock. And to be honest, there's only one player that I would be mad the Vikings missed out on: Gaines Adams. I wouldn't necessarily be unhappy if the Vikings ended up with one of the other five players, but I'm not going to complain if they aren't available when the Vikings' pick rolls around.

To begin with, I'm not entirely sold on JaMarcus Russell or Brady Quinn, nor am I sure the Vikings' need them. Russell has bust written all over him, due it's his poor decision making at LSU, he fact he wasn't the the Tigers #1 QB until his senior year or his tendency to throw mindbogglingly bad interceptions (Football Outsiders has a good article on why those three things are important). It doesn't help that the Raiders seem to like him (that's a warning sign).

Quinn seems more likely to be successful, but that doesn't mean I'm excited about the Vikings' getting him. To begin with, he gives off a very "Joey Harrington" vibe, possibly because of the name ending in "y", possibly because they seem to have similar looks on their faces. He has much better statistics in college, however, and spent a lot of time under a great coach in Charlie Weis. And yet, there's just something about him that dampens my enthusiasm.

Adrian Peterson was a player I was excited about the Vikings' getting to draft until the story broke that he had re injured his collar bone in the Fiesta Bowl and was still recovering. That puts him at four injuries in three seasons at Oklahoma. At some point, freak injuries stop being shocking and become commonplace (see Prior, Mark for a non football example). Peterson isn't necessarily at that point yet, but he's awfully close. And it might just be me, but it'd be cool to see the Vikings #1 pick play his rookie year.

Of the two defenders besides Adams, LaRon Landry is the pick I'd be happiest about. The guy is a stud--6'2, 205lbs with a 4.37 forty. And he's both a playmaker and a guy that destroys people. The thing is, he's a safety, a position where the Vikings' have a lot of good players. So if they draft him, they're set at the position for a while. If they don't, well, they're still set at the position for awhile.

Jamaal Anderson, on the other hand, seems to be the defensive end version of JaMarcus Russell. Everything you would want physically, but without a lot of experience or grasp of the subtitles of the position. One good year is not a guarantee of future performance.

Gaines Adams, on the other hand, looks like a player that can step in and solve one of the Viking's problems. He needs to bulk up, but he makes up for his size with speed (4.64 forty) and great technique. His list of moves is long, and he showed them off his junior and senior years. He is the best pass rusher in the draft, something the Vikings desperately need. He is this year's Javon Kearse, which is exactly what the Vikings need. Which is why I fully expect him to be drafted in the first six picks, leaving the Purple to have to settle for a player they don't need or don't want. And if you were wondering, this is why I've been concentrating on possible second round picks.

[Second round preview to come later this afternoon. I promise.]

Get to Know 'Em: Lamar Woodley

Rather than add my voice to the legion of bloggers speculating on the Vikings' first round pick, I'm going to take the draft analysis a step further and preview players the Vikings might take with the 41st overall pick. And in case you're wondering, I'm getting the ideas for players from NFL Draft Countdown, Draft Tek and FF Tool Box. So for all I know, these guys will all be gone in the first round, or will still be available when the Vikings draft in the third round. If it's the latter, let's all pretend this was a third round preview, ok? Thanks.
April 3: Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Ohio St.
April 4: Sidney Rice, WR, South Carolina
April 5: Charles Johnson, DE, Georgia
April 8: Steve Smith, WR, USC
April 10: Brandon Meriweather, S, Miami
April 18: Jason Hill, WR, Washington St.
April 19: Tim Crowder, DE, Texas
April 20: Justin Blalock: OG, Texas
April 23: Robert Meachem: WR, Tennessee
April 24: Craig "Buster" Davis: WR, LSU
April 25: Dwayne Jarrett: WR, USC
April 26: LaMar Woodley: DE, Michigan

Ask and ye shall receive--my first round preview will be up later this afternoon. In it's place this morning, I'm taking a look at LaMar Woodley, the 6'1, 266lb senior defensive end from the University of Michigan.

Woodley was a force to be feared for Michigan, leading a tenacious defense in sacks his last two years there. He has a relentless motor (by the way, who choose "motor" as the cliche to use in this situation? Why wasn't any else consulted?) and has a nose for getting to the QB. And once he gets there, the QB remembers him, since Woodley can just destroy people. He also uses that strength, along with great technique, to make up for his lack of bulk.

That lack of size is probably his biggest drawback. He's small for an end, but doesn't have a linebackers' instincts, despite spending time at the position for the Wolverines. That size disadvantage rears it's head against double teams and bigger tackles, which he'll be working against in the NFL. And scouts question whether he has the speed and burst necessary for smaller defensive ends to excel in the NFL. He turned in a 4.79 forty at the combine, but followed that up with a 4.62 on campus. It seems that he would be an ideal blitzing linebacker in the 3-4, since he is basically your prototypical "tweener".

Woodley will be availble to the Vikings at #41. He would also be available late in the round, whether they choose to trade up or down to secure the pick. I think the Vikings can get better value with their second rounder than Woodley, whether it's by drafting a different defensive end or by choosing a wide receiver. One of the keys to the draft is getting players that will fit your system. Woodley's lack of size and good but not great speed would be problematic in the Viking's scheme.

Get to Know 'Em: Tim Crowder

Rather than add my voice to the legion of bloggers speculating on the Vikings' first round pick, I'm going to take the draft analysis a step further and preview players the Vikings might take with the 41st overall pick. And in case you're wondering, I'm getting the ideas for players from NFL Draft Countdown, Draft Tek and FF Tool Box. So for all I know, these guys will all be gone in the first round, or will still be available when the Vikings draft in the third round. If it's the latter, let's all pretend this was a third round preview, ok? Thanks.

April 3: Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Ohio St.
April 4: Sidney Rice, WR, South Carolina
April 5: Charles Johnson, DE, Georgia
April 8: Steve Smith, WR, USC
April 10: Brandon Meriweather, S, Miami
April 18: Jason Hill, WR, Washington St.
April 19: Tim Crowder, DE, Texas

As I wrote when I previewed Charles Johnson two weeks ago, if the Vikings decide to draft an offensive player in the first round, they'll most likely try and pick up someone to help their pass rush in the second round. Tim Crowder, a decorated 6'4, 272lb senior defensive end from Texas may just end up in Purple because of that strategy. And don't be surprised if he makes an impact in his first year.

Crowder has a lot going for him--intangibles (he was the Longhorn's captain his senior year), experience (he played in every game while he was in Austin) and all the physical tools you look for in a defensive end. He has speed (4.69 forty) and demonstrated that he had enough speed to get around tackles while racking up 10.5 sacks his senior year. And when he gets to the QB, well, they better protect the ball, as he forced four fumbles his senior year. He's not just a pass rush specialist, either as his play against the run as been above average, partly due to his ability to get the most out of his size and partly due to his ability to disengage from blockers.

His technique is not perfect, however. He doesn't always stay low, allowing blockers to stand him up and get their hands into him. Against Baylor, he could get out of it. Against Chad Clifton, he won't have a chance. And while he has enough speed for the position, tackles won't be staying up all night worrying about it. He's fast, but he's not Javon Kearse.

If the Vikings choose to wait until the second round to address their pass rush issues, Tim Crowder would be a solid choice. He probably won't lead the league in sacks, but he will be able to pressure the quarterback, especially since he'll never be the focus of a blocking scheme (if the Vikings can acquire a defensive end that draws the focus away from the Williams "brothers", well, then they won't have to worry about their defensive line anymore). If he ends up wearing Purple, Crowder will be a solid addition to Erasmus James and Ray Edwards

Get to Know 'Em: Charles Johnson

Rather than add my voice to the legion of bloggers speculating on the Vikings' first round pick, I'm going to take the draft analysis a step further and preview players the Vikings might take with the 41st overall pick. And in case you're wondering, I'm getting the ideas for players from NFL Draft Countdown, Draft Tek and FF Tool Box. So for all I know, these guys will all be gone in the first round, or will still be available when the Vikings draft in the third round. If it's the latter, let's all pretend this was a third round preview, ok? Thanks.
April 3: Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Ohio St.
Yesterday: Sidney Rice, WR, South Carolina
Today: Charles Johnson, DE, Georgia

What? You thought that all the candidates for the Vikings second round pick were offensive players? You realize that's not their only weak spot, right? What if they decide to draft Adrian Peterson or Brady Quinn? Think it might be worth it to draft a defensive end then? No? Well, me neither, but that doesn't mean they won't do it, just to spite us. And, so we'll all be prepared for that eventuality, I give you Charles Johnson, a 6'2, 270lb junior defensive end out of the University of Georgia. [Editor's note: Yahoo! didn't feel it necessary to keep track of his stats, so those listed are not accurate. He actually had 19 TFLs and 9.5 sacks last year. Hopefully, Johnson uses Yahoo!'s snub as motivation if he's in Purple next year.]

Johnson projects to be a workmanlike end, able to play the run, collect a few sacks and generally get the job done. His upside is "good", not "great". To put it another way, he's never going to be the focus of the other team's blocking schemes, rather, he's going to be the guy that forces the other team to keep their schemes honest.

Johnson has the strength, build and long arms you look for in a defensive end, and has also demonstrated the ability to be an effective run stopper, but he has average speed (4.87) and there are questions about his burst, specifically his ability to get around left tackles. That shouldn't be too big of an issue for the Vikings, since that's supposed to be Erasmus James' job. And if the Vikings are passing up on a defensive end in the first round, they better be sure James' is going to be ready to be their top defensive end.

James' health might be key to Johnson's success for another reason: he was never the focus of offensive blocking schemes in college, as most teams focused instead on stopping his teammate Quentin Moses. Despite this, he is generally regarded as a better NFL prospect than Moses, who is projected as a third or forth rounder. If the Vikings decide to go with an offensive player in the first round, look for them to target someone like Johnson to help with their anemic pass rush. While Charles Johnson may not ever be a Pro Bowler, he has the ability to be a quality defensive end for a long time.