Congrats Antoine (and Kevin, Pat, Adrian, Jared and Steve)

It's the Pro Bowl, and it really doesn't matter if you're snubbed, but congratulations are in order to Kevin Williams, Adrian Peterson and Antoine Winfield for being named as Pro Bowl starters, and to Jared Allen, Pat Williams and Steve Hutchinson for making the team.

And I have to say, the voters got their Vikings right. Winfield has deserved to go for a few years now and its nice to see him finally get the recognition he's earned (and he's really backed up my decision to purchase his jersey after Randy Moss was traded). The Williams and Purple Jesus are obvious choices, as are Allen and Hutchinson. Really, the only other Viking that really deserved to be considered (and this isn't a knock, just a reflection of the high level of play necessary to deserve a Pro Bowl spot) was Chad Greenway and, while he's played really well, especially after the loss of E.J., he'll have ample opportunity to be named to the Pro Bowl in the future.

Three Stars: The Only Three

Ok. That headline is probably a little over the top. There were definitely more than three defensive players that performed well (thankfully, or the Vikings would have lost). Offensively, there was really only one player who was worth celebrating. You can probably guess who it is, but read on, as I unveil the Three Stars for the game.

Third Star: Jared Allen

Jared Allen earned his first weekly star on Sunday for two reasons. The first is because he scared the Lions so much on the edge that they didn't double team Kevin Williams. Forcing teams to choose between doubling Allen and doubling Williams is one of the reasons why I remain excited about his presence on the team. The other reason why he gets the Third Star? This play:

And yes, I think that Allen getting through the line unblocked and scaring Orlovsky so much he forgot where he was means that Allen should get credit, rather than Orlovsky getting blamed.

Second Star: Bernard Berrian

Any surprise here? Berrian turning a 13 yard pass into an 86 yard touchdown was the biggest play of the game. Without it, the Vikings' lose. It was his second straight game with over 100 yards receiving (he's on pace for over 1100), and he remains the Vikings' only real deep threat. And really, that run after the catch was a thing of beauty--he made three defenders miss (and, following a monster block from, I think, Aundrae Allison) and made the kind of big play the Vikings haven't seen their wide receivers make in a long time. The most impressive part? He's still nursing a knee injury. Think about what he'd be able to do if he was healthy!

First Star: Kevin Williams

Is anyone surprised that the Lions thought it was a good idea to single team Kevin Williams (Is there anything worse than that franchise's decision making)? I think he showed, quite clearly, why real teams don't do that. Well, at least I hope that his eight tackles, one of which was for a loss and one of which was for no gain and his four sacks would convince teams not to single team him (actually, wait...never mind--I hope it doesn't). His plays all came at crucial times too--in one sequence, he stopped Jerome Felton for no gain on 3rd and 1, which forced the Lions to punt. Bernard Berrian then scored on the Vikings next play. Then, when the Lions got the ball back, he stopped Rudi Johnson for a four yard loss on first down and sacked Orlovsky on 3rd down, almost single handedly ending that drive. He also sacked Orlovsky on a 3rd and 4 in Vikings' territory in the fourth quarter and then ended any chance of the Lions completing a fluke Hail Mary by bringing down Orlovsky on the final play. The man, quite simply, was a BEAST. And that's why he's the First Star this week.

Punting, Big Plays and the Pass Rush

• The Vikings currently have the worst special teams unit in the NFL, ranking last in DVOA. Naturally, Brad Childress has chosen to react to this by bringing in random people to challenge Chris Kluwe for the punting job. Obviously, Kluwe had an awful game against the Saints. That being said, an equal amount of blame needs to be placed on the coverage unit. Kluwe's one of the better punters in the NFL. He didn't look like it on Monday Night, but it doesn't matter if you have Ray Guy punting for you if your entire cover unit has no lane discipline and lets themselves get blocked.

• Unlike last year, when the Vikings were tied for fifth in "Net Big Plays" at +18 (and had the second most big plays, behind only San Diego, with 61), the Purple this year have given up more big plays than they've made and are currently tied for 22nd, with a -3 Net Big Plays. The problem isn't because they aren't making big plays, however (they're tied for 5th with 17), it's because they're giving them up at an almost alarming rate of four per game. The 20 they've given up is the second most in the NFL (behind only the 49ers) and almost half of the 43 they gave up in 16 games last year. Luckily for the Vikings, the Lions are among the worst at making big plays, and are tied with the Dolphin for last, with only 5. Detroit's net is the worst in the NFL as well, at -13.
  

• Despite bringing in Jared Allen, the Vikings' pass rush remains below average, and has actually been about the same as it was last year. The Purple had an adjusted sack rate of 5.5% last year. This year, it's 5.6%. Now, that doesn't factor in the fact that the Vikings have faced two quarterbacks who are almost impossible to bring down due to their quick releases. Peyton Manning has only been sacked 2.8% of the time he's dropped back to pass in his career, and Drew Brees' sack rate is 3.9% (remember, everyone was excited about Frerotte's low career sack rate of 6.0%). Luckily, they don't have to worry about Jon Kitna's ability to get rid of the ball quickly--his sack rate with the Lions is 9.2% (assuming he's able to play despite his back injury, which happened during one of the 15 times he's been sacked this year).

• If you're looking for a reason not to trust Football Outsiders' stats, I've got one for you--Gus Frerotte is 12th in DYAR and 11th in DVOA among quarterbacks so far. He's ahead of Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisburger and his soulmate, Kerry Collins. I have a feeling this will work itself out--as I said during the game, while Gus Frerotte has been a better quarterback than Tarvaris Jackson so far, he's by no means been a good quarterback.
  

• The Vikings are the only team in the division to beat a team above .500 so far. They're also the only team to beat two teams in the top 15 in DVOA. Chicago's the only NFC North team to beat a top 5 DVOA team, however, with their win against the Eagles and both Chicago (11th) and Green Bay (18th) have a higher DVOA than the Vikings (19th).

Three Stars: 0-2

As I said last time, I try and stay positive no matter what. Or at least lead with the positive. I'm as mad/depressed/want Childress' head as anybody right now, but there's way to much rancor here on the internet. That and I want to consolidate my negativity into one post. It's easier on the heart that way. So, without further ado, the Three Stars of the Game.

Third Star: Jared Allen

He said he would get better and he did. After a no show in the season opener, Allen showed up against Peyton Manning, notching one sack, two hurries and generally making Manning's life miserable. This was very much the guy that the Vikings traded for and the Colts troubles offensively can be traced to the fact that the defensive was in Manning's face all game. Oh, and don't look now, but Allen's ahead of his sack pace from last year, when he didn't have a sack in the first two games. (Heh.)

Second Star: E. J. Henderson

Why wasn't E. J. a Pro Bowler again? He was all over the field on Sunday, notching six tackles, three tackles for a loss, one sack and a hurry. He also lead a defense that held the Colts scoreless in the first half (the first time since October 8th, 2006 that Indy failed to score before halftime) and one that shut down the Colts running game so effectively that they only gained 25 yards on 19 carries and got called out by their quarterback. Joseph Addai, who averaged 4.1 yards per carry last year, only had three carries where he gained more than four yards. Not a bad day for a middle linebacker, that's for sure.

1st Star: Adrian Peterson

Once again, Peterson showed why he's the best running back in the NFL. After a 29 carry, 160 yard effort, he's leading the league in rushing, is off to the second best start statistically by a Viking back (only Robert Smith in 1998 had more yards after two games and I'd have to say he had a little more help from his passing game. Only a little bit though) and he's generally looking like the Adrian Peterson everyone expected. He gained at least 4 yards on 19 of his carries and picked up five first downs. He also out rushed the Vikings' passing game. Just think about what he could have done if the Colts weren't able to bring noted run stopper Bob Sanders up in the box on every play.

Killing Time: Playoff Odds, Recaps and ESPN

Its pretty obvious that Sunday's home opener against Indianapolis is a big game. Aside from the numerous players that need to rebound after a poor first game (paging Mr. Allen, paging Mr. Allen), the difference between 1-1 and 0-2 is a big one (not to mention the fact that Green Bay gets Detroit on Sunday, which means they're likely to be 2-0). OK--stop looking at me like I'm a bit slow. I know its obvious that 1-1 is better than 0-2. I know you know that too. What you probably don't know is how big a difference it makes in the odds the Vikings will make the playoffs. The folks at Football Outsiders know, and they calculated the odds of a team making the playoffs at various points in the season in the most recent Pro Football Prospectus (Have I mentioned that I love that book? You really should go buy it if you haven't already). They did so by looking at how where each team from 1978-2007 (excluding 1993 and its 18 week season) was after each game and calculating the percentage of teams at 1-0, 2-3, 9-6, etc that made the playoffs.

It's by no means definitive, but it gives a good sense of how important each game is. And let me tell you-this upcoming game is important. The difference between the playoff odds of an 1-1 team and a 0-2 team is one of the larger gaps created by a one game swing. At 0-1, the Vikings current have a 24.7% chance of making the playoffs. If they win, their chances increase to 41.0%. If the lose, their chances fall to 11.4%. That's a 30% swing and a loss would leave the Purple in a hole that it would take the Vikings three straight wins to dig themselves out of and get back to having a 50% chance of making the playoffs. So while Sunday's game won't necessarily make or break the Purple's season, a loss would put them in a hole that it will be very hard to dig their way out of.

More From Monday Night
Defensive Indifference, Luft's Locker Room, Skol Vikes and Andrew Sundquist from Pro Football Talk all have recaps of Monday Night's game.

Advanced Football Stats looks at Brad Childress' decision to go for two.

Football Outsiders has their Week 1 DVOA ratings up. Unsurprisingly, the Vikings are 22nd overall in VOA. Their DAVE rating, which is much better at predicting order of finish, is 5th though, and they were one of only two top 15 teams in DAVE that had to play a top 5 team last week (Green Bay is currently 2nd).

Shutdown Corner on the Aaron Rodgers' Bandwagon.

Smarter Stats, a new blog from the Washington Post, on the best statistic to rank pass rushers by. In case you were wondering, he had Jared Allen with sixth most sacks, hurries and knockdowns, despite his missing two games last year. Which means that, despite his missing the first game this year, he can still be one of the top pass rushers statistically again in 2008.

Finally, Cold Hard Football Facts on Tony Kornheiser and the Big Lead on the entire broadcast. The consensus? It was bad, real bad.

Killing Time: The Sober Guy and NFC North Notes

ESPN the Magazine has a feature article on the Vikings' newest acquisition, one Jared Allen, and on the drinking scene that is the NFL It's an interesting read and one that will hopefully assuage any lingering fears you might still have about Allen's ability to stay out of trouble.

Packers

• The Packers are still attempting to acquire Jason Taylor from the Dolphins, but if they're going to get him, they're going to have to be creative. I'm not a big fan of seeing Taylor in the Green & Gold, but I'm not too worried about it, since the Packers already have two very good defensive ends (and KGB will be back in time for Week 1). Adding a third is almost overkill and would probably cost the Packers more than Taylor adds.

• Daunte Culpepper turned down a contract offer from the Packers to be Aaron Rodgers' backup because he wants to start somewhere. Maybe not the best decision for Culpepper's career, but definitely the best move for my sanity.

• Since they're a publicly owned company, the Packers' books are open and they show that the owners' concerns about the rising cost of players is a legitimate one. The teams are still making a big profit, but when your profit drops thirty some percent because your personnal costs increased by twenty some percent, well, that's something that likely needs to be addressed.
  

Bears:

• 25 year old defensive tackle Tommie Harris signed a four year extension with da Bears, a contract that should prevent Chicago's defense from getting too bad, even as Brian Urlacher and company get older. The contract also prevents da Bears from having to deal with another messy "Lance Briggs" style renogiation, which I'm sure people in Chicago are thankful about.
  
• Da Bears will be starting a rookie running back, an announcement that wasn't too surprising after Cedric Benson was released. It says something about your running game that a complete unknown like Matt Forte is considered an upgrade before he's even put NFL pads on.
  

Lions:

• Matt Millon remains in charge of the Lions, and the Lions continue to remain irrelevant.
  

What Jared Allen's Expectation Means for Tarvaris

I like it. I like that Jared Allen expects to go to the Super Bowl. I like the confidence, I like the fact that he has high goals, and I like the fact that he's willing to go on the record with them. I know his comments likely gave Childress a mild heart attack, but still -- I like the way he thinks.

I also like the fact that Tarvaris is having more success at mini camp than he did last year. As I've been saying all offseason, the biggest factor in whether the Vikings reach their goals is Tarvaris Jackson (I know, I know-I'm not the only one who is saying that). Last year's performance wasn't good enough, even if the Purple did go 8-4 when he started. That fact becomes painfully obvious when you look at his QB Rating+, which was a dismal 87, 13 percent worse than league average.

When the NFL as a whole has a QB Rating of 80.9, the highest ever, a rating of 70.8 won't cut it. Tarvaris has to improve, but the question is, how much? What's the worst he could play in the regular season and still "lead" the Vikings to their fifth Super Bowl?

Since 1998 (when the Vikings helped turn the NFL into a passing league), no Super Bowl quarterback has had a QB Rating+ lower than 91, and that was by Eli Manning last year. Aside from him, only Rex Grossman was below average the year his team made the Super Bowl and only four other quarterbacks had a QB Rating+ less than 110: Steve McNair in 1999,Trent Dilfer in 2000, Brad Johnson in 2002 and Jake Delholmme in 2003. And if you'll notice, everyone of those teams relied on their defense, special teams and running game to get to the Super Bowl, except for the Titans, who needed a miracle to get out of the first round (Also, the Titans started Neil O'Donnell in 5 games, and his QB Rating+ was 117).

So what does that mean for Tarvaris? Well, if we assume that next year, the NFL has a QB Rating of 79.1 (which is the average of the last five years), he'd have to turn in a QB Rating of at least 72.0 to match Eli's QB Rating+ from last year. If the league has a QB rating of 80.9, which would tie it with 2004 and last year for the highest average ever, then Tarvaris will need to finish the season with a QB rating of at least 73.9, which, again, isn't much of an increase.

Getting to Eli Manning's QB rating from last year probably isn't going to be good enough, to be perfectly honest, unless Tarvaris repeats Manning's performance in the playoffs. I think it's much more likely that Tarvaris will need be at least league average for the Purple to make the Super Bowl. Even a Rex Grossman like QB Rating+ of 94 would likely require him to post a QB Rating of at least 75.0.

Can he do it? I think so. In the eight games the Vikings won with Tarvaris under center last year, he had a QB rating of 82.9, which would have given him a QB Rating+ of 102, better than Trent Dilfer's QB Rating+ of 100 in 2000. When you consider the improvements in his receiving corps, it's not out of the realm of possibility to think that Tarvaris can maintain that level of play for an entire season. If he can't? Well, then those who think that the Vikings are squandering their Super Bowl chances due to their handling of the quarterback position will be right, and Jared Allen will be wrong. I think I speak for everyone when I say that I hope Allen's the one who is right.

Alternate History and Some Solid Links

So you know, while I didn't get a wide receiver profile up at all (sometimes...and I mean sometimes, work comes first), I will be posting a "Second Round Preview" this afternoon. I'm still working on it, but it's mostly written. Before I do that (and I'll hopefully be posting during the draft--that depends a lot on the girlfriend's plans for the weekend), I thought I'd put up some links to articles worth reading (mostly on the Jared Allen trade) and tell you who I'd have wanted the Vikings to draft if they still had the 17th pick. I think it's worth doing, mainly so that when my top choices go well before the 17th pick, I'll feel even better about the Vikings deal for Allen (if that's even possible).

The First Round Draft Board:
1. Derrick Harvey, DE-Florida
Harvey is the best defensive end available that might actually make it to the 17th pick. Absent Jared Allen, he would have been the clear choice for the Vikings, filling their most glaring need with a talented pass rusher.

2. Ryan Clady, OT-Boise State
Clady might be the best offensive tackle left on the board, now that Jake Long has been signed by the Dolphins. I don't think there's a chance he'll make it to the 17th pick, but if I was the Vikings, and he was there, he would have been an easy choice to fill in for Bryant McKinnie during his suspension and then hopefully replace Ryan Cook at right tackle.

3. Chris Williams, OT-Vanderbilt
Williams is going to be a very, very good left tackle, because he's quick, has long arms and very good technique. His weakness is his strength, which he should be able to improve upon once he gets into an NFL strength program, but that's not as big a deal at left tackle, where most of the players he'd be blocking rely on their speed, not their strength. If the Vikings had picked him, they could have shopped McKinnie and been perfectly comfortable.

4. Jeff Otah, OT-Pittsburgh
Otah is seen as having the highest upside of any tackle on the board. The problem, of course, is that he might not realize his potential. He'd be the riskiest pick of any of the tackles for the Vikings, who likely need someone to fill in for McKinnie this year, and who would, ideally, be able to overtake Ryan Cook for the right tackle position. Otah might end up being the best tackle this draft produces, but he also might not be ready to play this year, which is why he doesn't fit into the Vikings' plans as well.

5. Phillip Merling, DE-Clemson
If Merling wasn't coming off of sports hernia surgery, I'd likely have him higher up on my board. He was able to work out for teams before the draft, but I'm not sure I'd want to take the risk, especially because Merling seems to be more of an Udeze type, rather than someone who can consistently get to the quarterback.

6. Devin Thomas, WR-Michigan State
Thomas is the best wide receiver that might be available to the Vikings, and the only one I'd consider drafting in the first round, mainly because he also has the ability to return punts and kicks. He's raw, and there's questions as to whether his great junior year was a fluke, but he's got all the skills and athleticism a wide receiver needs, and can contribute right away as a punt and kick returner. That being said, wide receivers are a risky pick in the first round.

7. Mike Jenkins, CB-South Florida
You can put Leodis McKelvin, a corner back from Troy or Aqib Talib, a corner back from Kansas (if you don't mind the marijuana use) here as well if you'd like, depending on which one is available. All three seem like they will turn into quality corner backs in the NFL, but the Vikings would have needed a player at a different position more, and likely would have been able to pick up a tackle or defensive end with the seventeenth pick, although McKelvin might have been a sleeper choice if he fell to the Purple, because he is a solid punt returner.

Judging the Allen Deal:
Most people thought the deal was a good one, from the folks at Pacifist Viking, to Gonzo at the Daily Norseman. DC at Grant's Tomb was happy, as was the Vikes Geek and Kevin Seifert and Patrick Reusse from the Star Tribune were quite excited about Zygi Wilf shelling out the cash to bring in Allen. Don Banks from Sports Illustrated likes the deal, especially if, as he reports the Vikings don't have to worry about Allen getting suspended for a year if he doesn't get in trouble before September, although Peter King thinks that Allen would still face a suspension if he violates the NFL Player Conduct Policy. Pro Football Reference used their "approximate value method" to evaluate the deal and they found that Allen is likely to out perform any of the players picked with the choices the Purple gave up and will likely out perform all three of them combined.

Quick Draft Links:
Cold, Hard Football Facts had an article breaking down the success rate of various positions, and found some interesting things out, including the fact that defensive ends chosen in the first round from 1978 had the lowest percentage make the Pro Bowl of any position. They had the sixth best rate of starting for five years for the team that drafted them (a 60% rate). Yet another reason to like the Allen trade--the Vikings might have gotten a starter for five years at defensive end, but odds are they wouldn't have been able to get a Pro Bowler with their first round pick.

Brett Favre is going to be on the cover of Madden '09. Maybe this means he'll come back after Jared Allen hurts Aaron Rogers in the first game, only to get destroyed by the cover curse. Or maybe he'll fade away gracefully into retirement. The former is definitely more likely.

Kissing Suzy Kolber is going to be live blogging the draft, so if you're watching, have a laptop and need some entertainment, definitely go there (after checking to see if I've posted, of course...). Also, fellow Viking fan Big Daddy Drew made a case for watching the Draft that I agree with whole heartedly.

The Return of the Purple People Eaters

I'll be honest-it took me a while to figure out how to start this post out. And, as you may be able to tell, I failed to come up with anything good. I'm going to cut myself a break here though, since the Vikings just acquired Jared Allen for their first round pick and both of their third round picks and made him the highest paid defensive player in the NFL.

That's right-the Purple now have the best defensive end in the NFL. Yup, that'll go nicely with their two Pro Bowl tackles, two young and talented defensive ends and their Pro Bowl caliber middle linebacker. Obviously Brett Favre knew something we didn't when he retired, because opposing quarterbacks are going to get destroyed when they face the Purple. I don't think I can express how excited I am about being able to finally watch the Purple actually get to opposing quarterbacks, something they haven't really been able to do since I really started following the Vikings in 1998. Heck, my friends and I still have a running joke about Kurt Warner getting in trouble with his "wife" for spending so much time checking out girls in the stands whenever he dropped back to pass against the Vikings in the 1999 playoffs.

But that's all in the past, because a defensive line of Allen, the Williams and Ray Edwards/Brian Robison will be almost impossible to stop. With that kind of pressure, the Vikings secondary is suddenly very good, since they wont have to cover for very long at all. Somehow, I see Darren Sharper's interception totals going up.

Now, I understand people's concerns about this deal. A first round pick and two third round picks is a lot to give up, especially for a player with previous violations of the NFL Personnel Conduct Policy. I discussed the various scenarios that I'd heard in an earlier post, and while I think that Rick Spielman and the Vikings' draft gurus would have been able to turn their third rounders into solid players, the Vikings' success rate with third round picks is very low. Since 2000, the Vikings have drafted Doug Chapman (2000-RB), Eric Kelly (2001-CB), Willie Offord (2002-SS), Nate Burleson (2003-WR), Darrion Scott (2004-DE), Dustin Fox (2005-CB) and Marcus McCauley (2007-CB). Offord was the only one that lasted more than four years with the Vikings, Burleson was the only one that started and McCauley is the only third rounder left on the team. So would I be willing to trade McCauley and Burleson for the right to draft Allen with the 17th pick (which, in essence, is what the Vikings are doing)? I certainly would. And I'd trade Dustin Fox and Doug Chapman for that right in a heartbeat.

And I'm not too worried about the money that the Vikings are shelling out for Allen either. While making him the third highest player in the NFL, with a six year contract worth just under $74 million, with just under $31,000,069 guaranteed is a big deal, the Vikings seem to have the cap room. And I'm willing to trust that Zygi Wilf and the Vikings put an extensive amount of time looking into Allen's claims that he hasn't had a drink since his second DUI in 2006 and his character and believe he's reformed. It is their money after all.

The Vikings now have a Super Bowl caliber pass defense. They already had a Super Bowl caliber run defense and running attack. If Tarvaris Jackson can become a league average quarterback, they are a Super Bowl contender, something they haven't been able to say going into the season in a long time. It's going to be a really fun season, that's for sure.

[I'm going to try and have a profile of the wide receivers the Vikings might draft in the second round up this afternoon, so check back and find out what the Purple might do with the only draft pick they have left in the first three rounds.]

How Jared Allen Ruined the Draft

Unlike some Vikings' fans, I wasn't having any trouble getting excited about the draft. I can understand why some Vikings' fans might not be too excited, but I like thinking about and debating various draft prospects, and strategies, even when they're somewhat unexciting, like a left tackle, or a safety. And its hard to get excited for the seventeenth pick, with so many variables built in, unlike last year, when it was just a matter of deciding which of the top seven players you liked best.

That all changed when the news broke about Jared Allen. Once I realized that acquiring Allen was a strong possibility, it became too hard to care about whether Derrick Harvey will fall to the seventeenth pick, or if the Vikings would pass on a stud tackle, like Chris Williams, in favor of a player that fits their need, but has just under gone surgery (Phillip Merling). I don't really want to go through possible second round picks, because I'd rather the Vikings give up their second rounder if it meant adding a proven star at defensive end. It's not easy doing a write up on second round defensive backs that might improve the Vikings secondary when you'd rather have Allen improve the Vikings secondary by consistently getting to the quarterback.

Jared Allen is the piece that can transform the Vikings' pass defense from a lower tier unit (23rd overall in defensive passer rating) into one of the best in the league. That would give the Vikings the best running offense, the best running defense and one of the best passing defenses. All that would need to happen at that point for the Vikings to be a legit Super Bowl contender, is for Tarvaris Jackson to turn into an average quarterback, something that should be easy to do when he's throwing the ball to Bernard Berrian, Sidney Rice and Bobby Wade (I'm serious. If the Giants and their average secondary, average quarterback, good running game and amazing defensive line can win the Super Bowl, so can the Vikings). For the Vikings to be Super Bowl contenders without Allen, they'd need a lot more to go right besides Tarvaris Jackson improving. And that's why I'm not excited about the draft any more and why I'm going to be really angry if the Chiefs aren't reasonable (Someone please explain to me how the #17 pick, the 73rd pick and next year's second round pick isn't reasonable) and the Vikings don't end up with Allen playing right end for them next year.

The Cost of Jared Allen

As you probably know, Jared Allen did not become a Viking prior to leaving Minnesota. Thankfully, he didn't leave because he couldn't reach a deal with the Purple. Instead he was forced to leave due to NFL rules that require restricted free agents to end their visits after 48 hours. In fact it seems that the Vikings were able to reach some kind of preliminary agreement with Allen, for a six year contract that would just need a few details worked out. And yes, I am really enjoying the fact that Zygi Wilf is acting like a big market baseball team, willing to shell out significant contracts to big time players if it will improve his team.

Since the contract doesn't seem to be the problem, the Chiefs' demands are the most likely hang up. It seems they want a first and second rounder, while the Vikings are offering a first and a third. My guess is the Chiefs are hoping to create a bidding war between the Purple and Tampa Bay, where Jared Allen will be visiting later this week. If it does turn into a bidding war (which depends a lot on if Allen is willing to go to Tampa Bay), it is one the Vikings can win, as their picks are all higher than Tampa's. The question is if it'd be worth it for the Purple to give up a second rounder (or even another first rounder, if they sign him to an offer sheet) rather than a third rounder for Allen.

I wrote about Allen on Friday, and he is unquestionably one of the top defensive ends in the league. He's only 26 years old, has 43 sacks in his four years and is good at stopping the run. There's the matter of his two DUI's, but the more I read about him, the less worried I become, and the Vikings don't seem too worried about it either, or they wouldn't have offered him the money they did.

So we know what we'd be getting. The question, what would we be giving up? The following table has all of the Vikings' first, second and third round picks for the last five years.

	1st Round	2nd Round	3rd Round
2007	Adrian Peterson (7)	Sidney Rice (44)	Marcus McCauley (72)
2006	Chad Greenway (17)	Cedric Griffin (48), Ryan Cook (51), Tarvaris Jackson (64)	None
2005	Troy Williamson (7), Erasmus James (17)	Marcus Johnson (49)	Dustin Fox (80)
2004	Kenechi Udeze (20)	Dontarrious Thomas (48)	Darrion Scott (88)
2003	Kevin Williams (9)	E.J. Henderson (40)	Nate Burleson (71)

They've made six first round picks, seven second round picks and four third round picks. Of their first round choices, two are Pro Bowl caliber players (Peterson and Williams), two are starters (Greenway and Udeze), one was a backup and traded (Williamson) and one hasn't played much because of injury (James). Their second round choices have yielded two Pro Caliber players (Rice and Henderson), one starter (Griffin), two average to mediocre starters (Cook and Jackson), one backup (Johnson) and one backup that's no longer on the team (Thomas). Their third round selections have yielded one starter (Burleson) that's no longer on the team, one current backup (McCauley) and one backup that's no longer no the team (Scott) and one player that didn't play a down before being cut (Fox).

So, aside from learning that the 2003 draft was as good as the 2005 draft was bad, what does this exercise tell us about the value of a draft pick? Well, it shows why the Vikings are so hesitant to give up a second round pick. Second round picks have given the Vikings their starting quarterback, middle linebacker, left tackle and a starter at corner back and wide receiver. The best the Vikings have been able to do in the third round is Nate Burleson, who gave them a season with 1000 yards receiving, but was only with the team for three years, and was mediocre for two of them. The other players are backups and only McCauley, who the jury is still out on, is left on the team.

It also shows that, if the Chiefs refuse to make a deal, signing Allen to an offer sheet might be worth it. While the Purple would lose their first round picks in 2009 and 2010, they would still have their second round picks, which have produced almost as many good players for the Purple as the first rounders. Of course, it would only be justifiable if the Vikings believe they are going to be really good this year and next year, since they've shown the ability to turn top ten picks into superstars (aside from the travesty that was the Troy Williamson pick). The other thing an offer sheet provides them is the ability to leverage the Chiefs into accepting a first and third rounder for Allen, since they seem to be placing a premium on getting something for him now, rather than down the road.

If the Vikings can get Allen for a first and third round pick in this year's draft, they need to do so. If not, the difference between giving up a first and second round pick this year and a first round pick the next two years isn't as big as it seems. Adding two more quality players, along with Allen, to this year's team could be enough to get the Vikings deep into the playoffs and the players that they'd be giving up the chance to draft in first round of the 2009 and the 2010 draft won't necessarily be better than the ones the ones they'd be able to draft this year with their first and second round pick. If the Chiefs won't budge, then it might be worth it to sign Allen to an offer sheet that the Chiefs can't match after the draft and load up this year. Of course, the viability of that plan depends a lot on whether Tarvaris Jackson can turn into a real quarterback, because if not, the Purple will have a very hard time finding a viable replacement for him without their first round picks in 2009 and 2010.

Solving Our Problems: Jared Allen

In case you somehow managed to miss the news, the Chiefs are shopping Jared Allen. That's right, Jared "lead the NFL in sacks despite missing two games" Allen is available for the right price, and the Vikings seem to have the best chance to acquire him.

Now, before we go any further, let's all take a deep breath, center our selves, and think about this analytically. Now, obviously, adding an elite pass rusher is the Vikings' main goal at this point. So, is Allen an elite pass rusher? Let's go to the stats and find out. Allen has 43 sacks in 61 career games, including 15.5 last season, where he missed the first two games due to suspension (don't worry, I'm going to get to that later). That means he has a sack rate of 11.28 sacks per 16 games. His worst year, 2006, he had 7.5 sacks, a number that would have lead the Vikings last year. And Kansas City had the third highest adjusted sack rate last year, bested only by the Patriots and the Giants. The Vikings were 28th. Allen is also good against the run, averaging over 56 tackles a year, a number dragged down by his rookie total of 30 tackles, and one which still would have been the 8th best on the Purple. And while he may still be the focus of opposing blocking schemes, he'll also be paired with the Williams and young pass rushers Ray Edwards and Brian Robison, which means that offenses will get to decide which player sacks their quarterback, but they won't be able to stop the Vikings from getting to him.

Now that we've come to the conclusion that Jared Allen is, in fact, an elite pass rusher (yeah, I know, a tough decision), it's time to consider the cost of acquiring him. The Chiefs have placed their franchise tag on him, which means that, technically, the Vikings could sign him right now. In order to do so, however, they'd have to give up two first round picks, one from this year, and one from next year. Obviously, they aren't going to do that, which means that, in order to trade him, the Chiefs have to accept something less than two first rounders. Rumor is that the Vikings are considering offering their first round pick this year and their second round pick next year for Allen. If the Chiefs prefer picks from this year's draft, that means that they'll likely have to accept a third round pick instead of a second rounder. The Vikings have the 17th, 47th, 73rd and 82nd picks. Ideally, they'd be able to convince the Chiefs to take the 82nd pick, along with the 17th, but, due to Tampa Bay's interest, they may have to deal the 73rd pick instead. Tampa has the 20th, 52nd and 80th pick, but only have 5 total draft picks this year, which makes each of their picks more valuable to them, and the Vikings can easily outbid them, as their picks are all higher than the Bucs'. Are a first and third round pick worth trading for an elite pass rusher? In a word--Yes. Odds are the Purple would be using one of those picks (if not both) on a defensive end anyway, and it's much better to get a proven commodity than have to take a chance on an unknown, when the proven commodity is very, very good.

Even if the Vikings reach a deal with the Chiefs, they're still going to have to reach a deal with Jared Allen. Rumor is that he wants Dwight Freeney money, which means a contract that is around six-years, for $72 million and $30 million guaranteed. To put that in context, the Purple were willing to offer an inferior end, Justin Smith, $20 million in guaranteed money and a six year contract for $45 million. Is Allen worth the cash? Well, yes, and no.

Yes, because Allen is only 26 years old, and likely to continue to be effective for the length of the contract and because that's the going rate for elite pass rushers. No, because Allen's already managed to pick up two DUI's in his four years, which is the reason why he served a two game suspension last year (which was originally four games). He says he has stopped drinking, which I'm willing to believe, but I'm not the one guaranteeing him $30 million dollars. I'm not sure how the Vikings can square trading for Allen with their "Culture of Accountability", nor am I sure if guaranteeing $30 million to a player who has already had his second strike is a good idea. The Vikings are supposedly considering trading Bryant McKinnie because of the fight he was allegedly involved in (remember, he hasn't been convicted of anything yet). And while it was McKinnie's fourth arrest, unlike Allen, he hasn't been found in violation of the NFL conduct policy for the second time yet. A third violation would likely mean a year long suspension, and the Vikings might not be able to recover the money they guaranteed Allen, and they certainly wouldn't be able to recover the draft picks they gave up to get him.

So, do I make this trade if I'm the Vikings? I think so. I have no problem with giving up a first and a third rounder this year (or a first rounder and a second rounder for next year) for a talent like Allen. Nor do I have a problem with paying a player like him the money he wants. If I'm the Vikings though, I'm making damned sure that he is telling the truth about learning from his past mistakes. Because I have a problem with the Vikings signing a player with two DUIs that hasn't made a change to their lifestyle. And that's what this deal hinges on--can the Vikings trust Allen to be a model citizen? If so, he's the answer to their problems. If not, this trade isn't worth it. So, do you trust Zygi, Spielman and Childress to make the right call on Jared Allen's character?