Turning Down Cutler, but not Tahi

Cutler Rumors
If it's true that the Vikings killed a trade that would have brought them Jay Cutler and the Broncos Matt Cassell, because "some elements in the Minnesota coaching staff weren’t entirely sold on Cutler", then I think we've seen the dumbest personnel decision made by the Vikings' since the Herschel Walker trade. And Brad Childress should get fired for it unless combination of Tarvaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels lead the Vikings to the Super Bowl. Childress may not have been the member of the staff that wasn't sold on Cutler, but the buck stops with him when it comes to the staff weighing in on personnel decisions, so it shouldn't have mattered if Darrell Bevell or Kevin Rogers had a problem with Cutler. And if it was him that killed the deal, well, then I really hope he gets fired, because he has no idea what a quarterback good enough to win the Super Bowl looks like.

Vikings Re-sign Tahi
Apparently they thought it was necessary after Leonard Weaver signed with the Eagles. Weaver would have been a big upgrade on the awful Tahi. Tahi, well, he's not an upgrade, he's a horrible option as receiver and his blocking wasn't all that great from what I could tell. He's not good, but at least it was only a one year deal, which means the Purple can try and upgrade again last year. Really, it wouldn't be a problem if Adrian Peterson got to play more in passing situations, because then the quarterbacks could use him as an outlet, instead of Tahi, who doesn't quite have Peterson's speed, quickness or game changing ability. But we'll leave that one for another day (though I think you can probably tie it back into my point about how Childress should definitely be fired if the Vikings' don't go to the Super Bowl this year).

Killing Time: Tomlin v. Childress, the 3-4, Daunte Clones and Assistants

• Grant's Tomb compares the approach Mike Tomlin and Brad Childress took when starting as head coach. Guess which one he liked better? (Here's a hint--it's not the one who won Football Outsiders' Keep Chopping Wood award for Head Coaches.)

• The Green Bay Packers are going to be running a 3-4 defense next year. This is both a good thing and a bad. It's a good thing because the Packers don't really have the personnel to run the defense, as Acme Packing Company explains. That will exacerbate the weakness of the defense, and de-emphasize the strengths (both of which the Acme post explains). Then again, if Tarvaris Jackson is going to be playing quarterback next year, seeing the 3-4 will cause problems, because it will require him to recognize where the blitz is coming from and adjust accordingly. I'm sorry, but I just don't think he'll be able to do that.

• Draft Countdown's most recent mock draft has the Purple taking Josh Freeman, a junior quarterback out of Kansas St. At 6'6", 250lbs, Freeman's a Daunte clone, and I mean that in a good way. Would he be the best choice? Maybe, maybe not, but make sure you check back because I'm going to breaking down the draft again like I have the past two years.

• Leslie Frazier isn't going anywhere, but Special Teams Coordinator Paul Ferraro might be. Come on Spags! Hire him! Ignore the performance of the Vikings' Special Teams. He's your best friend! You've got to offer him a job!
  

Killing Time: Damning Quotes, New QBs and Offseason Moves

Two things were clear to all who watched the Vikings' playoff game--Tarvaris Jackson is not the answer at quarterback next year and Brad Childress is not going to be out coaching any of the NFL's quality coaches. According to Michael Silver of Yahoo Sports, it was clear to the Vikings' players as well. Nothing I can write can be more damning about Tarvaris and Childress than the quotes from the Vikings' players, who described Tarvaris as having a “deer-in-headlights” look and complained that the Vikings' "sideline was in total disarray” and "one play behind all day". That being said, Gus Frerotte should probably look in the mirror and remember who he is before he starts whining about not playing. Somehow, I doubt a quarterback that was sacked 29 times (11th most in the NFL) and threw 15 interceptions (4th most in the NFL) despite only making 309 pass attempts (28th in the NFL) and playing in only 11 games would have been the answer against the Philly blitz.

Just because Frerotte wouldn't have saved the season (and honestly, anyone who says he would have because he was 8-3 this year should stop, think about what exactly that means about his play when compared to the above statistics and then take it back before they look too stupid) doesn't mean that something needs to be done to improve the position this off season. Grant's Tomb has a pessimistic view of the Vikings' chances of finding an upgrade, while Pro Football Talk provides some hope that the best quarterback at the Dome might be available. And in case you're wondering, I lay the blame for the Vikings' failure to find a competent quarterback at the feet of Brad Childress. Since he took over, he's had the opportunity to acquire Matt Schaub, Jeff Garcia and Chad Pennington [Edit: Not to mention AP Offensive Player of the Year Drew Brees] via free agency or Sage Rosenfels and Derek Anderson in a trade, as well as draft Brian Brohm, Brady Quinn, Chad Henne, Kellen Clemens and Brodie Croyle, as well as hold onto Tyler Thigpen. While all of those players might not have been any better than Tarvaris, there are quite a few quarterbacks in that list that would have given the Purple a much better chance at winning that playoff game and making a run to the Super Bowl.

Quarterback isn't the only position the Purple need to pursue upgrades at either. Sean Jenkins of the Pioneer Press has a good overview of what moves the Vikings might make. Personally, I'd like to see the Vikings upgrade their secondary (Cedric Griffin is an above average nickle back and a below average starter) and offensive line first, while hopefully bringing in some more talent at wide receiver. There are quite a few players available at those positions in free agency and the draft, so the Purple should be able to bring in upgrades (Nnamdi Asomugha!) to go along with the upgrade at linebacker that will occur when they replace Napolean Harris with E.J. Henderson for the second time.

5 Quick Thoughts on The End

I'll have a lot more on the game in the next few days, but I wanted to get in a few quick thoughts (five, to be exact) on the Vikings' playoff loss and what it means for the team going into the off season.

• There's nothing more frustrating than watching Eric Beinami quiz Adrian Peterson on protection schemes on the side line when the Vikings are facing 3rd and short (or really, any passing down). I don't know if Childress pulls Peterson because he doesn't know how to block, because Peterson doesn't want to block, because he doesn't trust him to catch the ball or because he's being stubborn and trying to prove something. Whatever the reason, it's frustrating watching the Purple's best weapon watch on 3rd down instead of being on the field. At the very least, Childress should keep him out there WITH Chester Taylor every once in a while. Line him up in the slot. Put Taylor and Peterson in the backfield with Tarvaris. Doesn't really matter--just make sure that defenses have to worry about him on 3rd down.

• I know a lot of folks are clamoring for Leslie Frazier to replace Brad Childress. I'm not sure I'm on board with that. I'm definitely on board with Childress being replaced (though I doubt it will happen), as I think we just saw the Vikings' hit their ceiling under Childress, but settling on the in house choice isn't necessarily the right thing to do. I think Frazier's the easy choice because he has a lot of similarities to Mike Tomlin and Tony Dungy, but that doesn't make him the right choice to succeed Childress. It doesn't make him the wrong choice either--I'd just hope that if (when) Childress is fired, that Zygi does a very, very, very thorough search for a replacement. By all accounts, he failed to do that when he chose Childress, and look where that got us. So maybe Frazier's the right choice. Maybe he's not (Umm...Leslie? You might want to adjust your coverage so that the 10 yard hook over the middle isn't open every single play). I just want Zygi to consider all the options before he hires a new coach.

• Speaking of coaching, you may have noticed that the Vikings played well in the first half (aside from the pick six) and poorly in the second half. Guess which team made the proper adjustments and which one didn't? (And what, exactly, was going on during the Vikings last drive of the half? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?)

• The Vikings had a very productive off season last year. They seriously upgraded their talent level. First off, Jared Allen is a beast. A beast. Bernard Berrian is also a very good wide receiver, and was clearly the best on the team. And Madieu Williams was a very solid safety. He wasn't a huge play maker, but he also wasn't getting toasted every other play like his predecessor (I'm still not sure how, exactly, Dwight Smith fell for that double move by Devin Hester. Somethings might never be explained). If they can be as successful bringing in a new quarterback and some secondary and offensive line help this year, they're going to be very, very good next year.

• Three quick, bitter thoughts: Hey Brian Dawkins--way to lead with your head. Classy. Donovan? Please don't dance. And DeSean Jackson? You don't get to talk trash to the opposing coach immediately after stepping out of bounds to avoid getting hit by the punter.
  

Killing Time: What a Draw

• There's nothing like winning your division, getting the third seed and a game at home, only to find out your opponent is the best team in the NFL, according to DVOA.

• Pacifist Viking on why the game might get blacked out. Let me just say that this is the first time I'm glad that I'm not in Minnesota for a Vikings' game.
  

• I am in complete agreement with DC at Grant's Tomb on the fact that Childress is still not a good coach. One of the unmentioned subplots in this game is that neither fan base is all that excited about their team making the playoffs because they don't think they can win the Super Bowl with their coach and quarterback and it guarantees that they're going to have the same coach and quarterback next year. This becomes even less surprising when you consider that Zygi Wilf tried to model the Vikings on the Eagles.
  

• Smarter Stats breaks down the Wild Card match ups.

• The Vikings might have their best running back ever. They might have their best defensive line ever. And, apparently, they might have their best punter ever. (And you wonder why no one is all that impressed by a 10-6 record with this kind of talent).
  

• Pat Williams is playing. So the Vikings have a chance at stopping Brian Westbrook on the ground. Phat Pat isn't going to be able to help the Purple stop Westbrook in the passing game though, which is too bad, because the Vikings aren't very good at stopping pass catching running backs (they're 22nd in DVOA against them).

Da Bears Made More Big Plays

Well, it looks like I was right. The team that made the most "big plays" won the game. And unlike last year, when the Purple always seemed to be able to make one or two more, especially against Chicago, it was da Bears that made more, and it was da Bears that won the game.

When a team throws four interceptions, gives up two special teams touchdowns (now, I'm not the type that thinks Zygi should fire Childress now, because its too Al Davis-like and because he can fire him at the end of year, but Paul Ferraro? He needs to be fired and fired right now.) and a 51 yard touchdown pass to Marty Booker (yeah, I have no idea how that happened either), they aren't going to win. It doesn't matter if Adrian Peterson has a Purple Jesus type day or that Jared Allen has two sacks and a forced fumble. And it especially doesn't matter if you are so afraid of Devin Hester you let Chicago start every drive in field goal range for an entire half.

It didn't help that the lack of Madieu Williams and E.J. Henderson was exploited by Kyle Orton, Greg Olsen and Desmond Clark either. The Bears attacked the middle of the field and it worked to the tune of 9 catches, 133 receiving yards and a touchdown by Olsen and Clark. And the Purple made it worse by not tackling. The thing is, they weren't missing tackles so much as not attempting them. Time after time a Bears' receiver would catch a pass in a crowd of Purple and somehow emerge unscathed. Maybe the orange served as camouflage? I don't know, but that was the worse tackling by the Vikings since 2004 and it couldn't have come at a worse time.

Offensively, this was the first time since December 9th, 2001 that the Vikings' offense put up 40 points by themselves (and their QB was Todd Bouman!), and the first time under Brad Childress that they scored 30 or more without help from their defense, special teams or 250+ yards from Adrian Peterson. They might even have been able to score more if it weren't for the four interceptions, muffed punt by Charles Gordon (remember how worried I was about the lack of a real punt returner on the roster?) and inane decision by Childress to pass the ball on 4th and 1. The Purple averaged 4.8 yards per carry against Chicago on Sunday. They have the best running back in the NFL and an above average runner as his backup. Why not put both of them in the backfield and give it to one of them? It worked in the red zone. Even if you don't want to give Peterson the ball (he does have a pretty mediocre 47% success rate and has been stuffed on multiple 3rd and shorts this year), then give Chester Taylor the ball. Don't put the game in the hands of Gus Frerotte. His job is not to win games-its to stay out of the way while Adrian Peterson, Chester Taylor and the defense wins games.

Decisions like that are why there's almost no doubt in my mind that the Vikings should fire Brad Childress at the end of the year (assuming, of course, that they miss the playoffs, a pretty safe bet at this point). The special teams issues, poor roster construction and predictable play calling all reinforce that. Given the two weeks he has to prepare for the final 9 games (in which the Vikings must go at least 6-3, if not 7-2, to have a shot at the playoffs) Childress might turn into Bill Belicheck. I doubt it though.

Coming up: 3 stars (yes, there were good games by Vikings) and later this week, a look at potential replacements for Childress.

Insight via Statistics--Too Many Penalties

• Despite having a team consisting of veterans, the Vikings lead the league in penalties and penalty yards. They do, however, have the ability to get big chunks of yards, with 18 passing plays over 20+ yards (the 7th highest in the NFL) and 5 rushing plays over 20+ yards (the 6th most in the league).

• The Vikings are averaging only 5.58 yards per passing attempt, the 11th worst in the NFL. They are averaging 5.03 yards per carry. Despite having big play threat Bernard Berrian, those stats provide all the reasons you need to know about why the teams are still willing to bring 8 and 9 defenders in the box. One would think that a great offensive mind would be able to figure some way to capitalize on defense's singular focus on the running game.

• The Vikings once again gave up more big plays on Sunday than they made. That's not a good sign, considering how much correlation there was last year between a team's big play differential and it's success.

• Kyle Orton has been a good quarterback so far this year. Honestly, that's the part that I just don't understand--Kyle Orton? Good Quarterback? Huh? Anyway, he's thrown 8 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions, has completed 61.6% of his passes and is averaging 6.25 yards per passing attempt. If the Vikings can get to him, however, he'll crumble under the pressure--in each of the two games in which he was sacked more than two times, he threw 2 interceptions. His offensive line isn't anything to write home about either--they're 18th in adjusted sack rate, while the Vikings' defensive line is 10th.
  

• Historically, 3-3 teams have made the playoffs 40% of the time. 49% of 4-3 teams have made it, while only 20.2% of 3-4 teams have made it. Football Outsiders give the Vikings a 23.1% chance of making the playoffs, less than half of the chance they give the Packers and Bears, and a decrease of 2.1%. The Vikings may have won that game, but the way they performed did not say good things about their ability to win future games.

Killing Time: Win Expectancy, the Wild Card and the Return of Dontarrius

• Gridironmine figured out the play by play win expectancy for Sunday's game (something they've been doing for the entire season). Personally, I love win expectancy--there are very few ways to figure out the importance of a play. For example, the pass interference call changed the win expectancy 47% in the Vikings favor. Another good example--the Lions had an 85% chance of winning (their highest of the game) when they had the ball at 3rd and 1 on the Vikings' 44 with 5:33 left in the game. Without Kevin Williams stopping Justin Felton for no gain, the Purple probably lose.

• Defensive Indifference and Grant's Tomb on the game.

• The NFC East may not have surrendered the crown of "Best Division" with three losses this week, but the Cowboys, Giants and Redskins' losses created an opening for a team from another division to grab a wild card spot. I think it'll require the right 10-6 record (with most of the 6 losses to AFC teams), but I wouldn't be surprised to see the second wild card team come from the NFC South (or maybe, just maybe the NFC North. And there I go being unrealistically optimistic again. But the Vikings are 3-1 against the NFC...). I definitely would not be surprised if the Cowboys missed the playoffs, especially with Brad Johnson at quarterback for 4 games. It might just be me, but I don't see him matching Tony Romo's 7.94 yards per pass attempt.

• Speaking of Brad Johnson, Kevin Seifert has a breakdown of his final year in Minnesota. Let's just say it's not a favorable breakdown for Brad Childress' coaching style.

• Was Brad Childress' decision to kick the extra point on Sunday a good one? I'm not actually sure. On one hand, it's not a bad idea to ensure you'll only need to score once, even if the other team scores a touchdown (there was no way the Lions would go for two). On the other, the Vikings' offense was playing horrible (and needed an iffy pass interference call to get the field goal they needed). I'm pretty sure that the decision came down to Childress' confidence in the KAO, along with some concerns about a possible punt return touchdown or another big play for a touchdown putting the game out of reach. I'm not going to complain to much about the decision, mainly because I don't think it's too unreasonable to expect the Vikings' offense (or defense, via a turnover) to get in field goal range with 20 minutes remaining in the game and because I don't think the Vikings would have completed the two point conversion.

• Dontarrius Thomas is a Viking again. He's an upgrade over Vinny Circiu at middle linebacker, but no matter what happens (there really aren't a whole lot of available options at MLB in Week 6), the loss of E.J. Henderson is a big one for the Vikings and it makes it less likely that the Vikings' defense can carry the team to the playoffs.
  

• Football Outsiders on why Adrian Peterson's performance on Sunday was a lot worse than you'd think, even after factoring in the two fumbles (and, in a related post, Smarter Stats on why a rushing title doesn't mean a running back had the best season). Also, according to their statistics, Gus Frerotte's performance on Sunday was the 6th worst by a quarterback. Bernard Berrian's performance, however, was the 5th best of any wide receiver.
  

The Final Straw

The Vikings are wasting a Super Bowl caliber defense because of their inability to score points. There were many signs of this before, but yesterday was the final straw--this team will never win the Super Bowl with Brad Childress' offense.

There are many people who have decided this team is the inverse of the Vikings from 2003 and 2004. They're wrong--those teams did not have anywhere near the talent on defense that this team has on offense. Look at the rosters--the 2003 and 2004 teams had, at most, two Pro Bowl caliber players. The 2004 team had Antoine Winfield and second year players Kevin Williams and E.J. Henderson, but that was about it in terms of Pro Bowl talent (and, let's be honest, E.J. Henderson didn't emerge as a Pro Bowler until well after that year). This year, the Vikings have three players coming off of Pro Bowl seasons (Adrian Peterson, Steve Hutchinson and Matt Birk) and multiple players that have Pro Bowl (or near Pro Bowl) talent, such as Bernard Berrian, Bryant McKinnie, Chester Taylor.

With that kind of talent, the offense should be better. And the fact that Gus Frerotte and Tarvaris Jackson are the quarterbacks is no excuse. The Vikings' offense has scored 8 touchdowns this year. That's fewer than the 49ers, who have J.T. O'Sullivan throwing to the 80 year old Isaac Bruce. It's fewer than the Da Bears, who have Kyle Orton's neckbeard throwing to Brandon Lloyd and Marty Booker. It's fewer than the Tennessee Titans, who are basically the Vikings without Bernard Berrian. And I could go on.

Honestly, the Vikings' offense has been pathetic. The Lions' defense had given up 15 touchdowns in their first four games. They held the Vikings to one. They had only 4 sacks before the game. On Sunday, they had 5. Prior to playing the Vikings, they did not have an interception and had only caused 2 fumbles. On Sunday, they got their first interception and caused 4 fumbles. The Vikings' offense was dominated by a defense that could not stop any of the other teams it has played. They've been dominated by average defenses in Green Bay, Indianapolis and New Orleans and they've been dominated by good defenses in Carolina and Tennessee. The Vikings have not been able to score on anyone.

Which leads us to this--unless Brad Childress has some kind of magic potion that will fix the offense, this is not a playoff team. Yes, they are in first place now. But, as cliche as it sounds, you have to score points to win. And if they can't score against a defense as pathetic as the Lions, what are they going to do against the rest of their schedule? There isn't a defense as bad as the Lions left on it (well, except maybe the Lions) and the same goes for the offenses.

And so, in the end, this year's Vikings' team is going to be exactly like last year's team, only with more talent on both sides of the ball. And while that talent just might pull the team into the playoffs, it likely doesn't matter how much talent is added--the coach is never going to be good enough to win the Super Bowl. And that's what the Vikings' goal is--winning the Super Bowl. That's why I wrote that "I'm trying to decide if I'd rather have the Vikings miss the playoffs if it means they get a new coach". And that's why I'm going to treat the rest of this season like I would the rest of a season where the Vikings had already been eliminated from the playoffs. If they win, great. If not, well, at least they're going to get a new coach who might be able to turn this team into the Super Bowl contender it should be.

First Place

Ladies and Gentlemen--your first place Minnesota Vikings!

That was ugly. U-G-L-Y. Kevin Williams is unbelievable. Bernard Berrian was a great signing. And I'm seriously trying to decide if I'd rather have the Vikings miss the playoffs if it means they get a new coach. But the Falcons win means that the Purple are tied for first with the Bears.

More on the game later today and tomorrow. Then I'm moving on, because a 12-10 win over this Lions team is pathetic, but it could be worse, because the Lions aren't the worst team in the league and because the Lions didn't win.

Fourth Quarter Thoughts: It's Better to Be Lucky...

(If you're trying to figure out what I'm referencing, these are all in roughly chronological order. Thoughts on the First Half and Third Quarter are below.)

• Ben Leber has been great in coverage today. He's knocked down two deep passes to go along with his acrobatic interception, one in the Third Quarter and one near the beginning of the Fourth Quarter. The most impressive part was that he was covering Devery Henderson, the Saints' deep threat both times.

• Martin Gramatica's absolutely launched the field goal that tied the game at 20. It was a 53 yarder, but it would have been good from much further back--it was still at the top of the goal posts when it crossed the bar. A tape measure field goal if you will.

• I think I understand now what Bears' fans were talking about when they said that Bernard Berrian had too many drops--he should have caught that pass for a first down.

• Either Chris Kluwe just massively screwed up, or Brad Childress should be fired for not telling Kluwe to punt the ball out of bounds. Inexcusable.

• Bernard Berrian more than made up for his earlier drop--both catches he had on the drive following Bush's second punt return touchdown were catches that a lesser receiver doesn't make. Both balls were underthrown, but he was still able to adjust, come back to the ball and hang on while being covered by multiple defenders, and, on the touchdown, by Aundrae Allison. I don't know how long it's been since the Vikings' have had a receiver with 100 yards in a game, but Berrian has 110 yards already and the 69 yards he had on that drive might have saved the game for the Purple.

• Cedric Griffin absolutely LIT UP Billy Miller. I think it was a legal hit too, despite Mike Tirico's politicking for a fine. That was Greg Blue-esque (heh). Ben Leber's coverage was pretty good on the play, but Drew Brees' pass was perfectly placed just above Leber's outstretched arms. I have to say, I've enjoyed watching a good quarterback work, even if it's come at the expense of the Vikings. We really have got to get ourselves one of those.
  

• I don't know what Sean Payton was thinking when he called his final two plays before the Two Minute Warning. Rather than run the ball on 2nd Down with 2:13 left, letting the clock run down to the two minute warning (or forcing the Vikings' to burn one of their two time outs), he called a pass, which ended up incomplete. Then he did it again on third down. And that left 2:04 in the half , a 46 yard field goal attempt (which Gramatica left--whoooo) and the Vikings with two timeouts.
  

• Yeah, I'd have to say that Bernard Berrian has more than made up for that dropped pass. Not a bad thought by Frerotte to chuck it deep on 3rd and 3 and not a bad throw either. That play doesn't happen last year and without it, there's almost no way the Vikings get down the field in time to get a field goal attempt.
  

Third Quarter Thoughts

The Saints are continuing to show that they're the better team on both sides of the ball in the third quarter, but the Vikings are still ahead, albeit barely.
(If you're trying to figure out what I'm referencing, these are all in roughly chronological order. First half thoughts are below.)

• Brad Childress continues to call outside running plays, despite the fact that the Vikings' haven't been able to block the Saints on any of them. Nothing like continuing to call plays that lead to 4 yard losses on first down when your offense has a horrible passing ame.

• Leslie Frazier is a very good defensive coordinator. The blitz he just called where he stacked Ben Leber and Tyrell Johnson behind Jared Allen was a thing of beauty, and it got Allen into the backfield untouched. I'm really excited for some team to hire him, so that he can continue the Vikings' tradition of coordinators becoming more successful head coaches than the guy they worked for.

• Once again, the Vikings' punt coverage has failed them. Vinny Cuirciu missed a tackle on Reggie Bush's punt return touchdown and the outside contain didn't stay in their lanes. One big block on Erin Henderson later and Bush was gone and the Vikings 10 point lead is suddenly 3 points. That's not a good thing against a team that's dominated the Purple on both sides of the ball.

• If Reggie Bush doesn't trip, he was going to return a second punt in a row for a touchdown. What happened to the Vikings' ability to tackle when covering punts? Husain Abudllah, Maurice Hicks,Vinny Ciuriu and Chris Kluwe all missed a tackle on that return.
  

First Half Thoughts

The Vikings have no right to be in this game at the half, let alone leading by ten points. And yet, they're up 20-10 and I'm having flashbacks to the game against the Giants in 2005 when the Vikings returned an interception, a punt and a kickoff for a touchdown, were leading at the half despite having negative offensive yards and held on to win 24-21. It's been that kind of crazy so far.

• The Refs have been absolutely horrible tonight. I'm going to guess that Ed Hochilli and his crew won't be referring any playoff games. They've messed up calls on holds, fumbles, face masks. receptions and pretty much every other call they could. So far, the poor officiating has gone the Vikings' way (and likely is the reason the Purple had the opportunity to be up at the half), but still--these refs have been awful and it's detracting from the game.

• Antoine Winfield is a beast. He's got the touchdown, he's got the sack and fumble recovery, but perhaps the most impressive play was where he ducked underneath the fullback and tackled Reggie Bush for a loss. From the normal sideline, it looked like Bush had tripped on Winfield. From the other sideline, however, it was clear--Winfield avoided the block and made an amazing play.

• The Vikings have done a great job of getting pressure on Drew Brees. They've only sacked him once, but they've been in his face all half. The defensive line (nice to see you again Jared Allen) has gotten pressure without blitzes and Leslie Frazier has called some innovative blitzes that have worked almost perfectly.

• I wish Brad Childress used Adrian Peterson in the passing game the same way the Saints use Reggie Bush. A game like this one would be a perfect time for it, what with the Vikings' offensive line forgetting how to run block. Some swing passes, a screen or two--when the running game isn't working, especially when it isn't working on the edges, the Vikings need to use the passing game to get Peterson the ball in space rather than just continue slamming him into the defensive line. The worst part though, is that Childress doesn't even leave Peterson in on passing plays, removing defenses' need to account for him in their play calling and reactions.
  

• Gus Frerrotte might be a better quarterback than Tarvaris Jackson, but he's not a good quarterback. Some of his throws are just as inexplicably inaccurate as Tarvaris' were.
  

Killing Time: More Reasons to Fire Childress and Other Thoughts

A few more thoughts on Childress and other things, now that the Vikings are a quarter of the way through their games:

• Under Brad Childress, the Vikings are 3-8 against playoff teams. What makes that record even worse than it appears is that all three of their wins required some kind of fluke. Matt Hasselbeck got hurt during their win against Seattle in 2006 and Chester Taylor set a franchise record with a 96 yard touchdown run. Their win over San Diego featured Adrian Peterson setting the NFL record for rushing in a game. And Eli Manning threw x picks, x of which were returned for touchdowns, in their win over the Giants last year. Against winning teams, the Purple are 4-9 under Brad Childress and 1-1 this year (and their two losses to the Colts and Packers will likely qualify at the end of the year). This isn't a case of the Vikings being inconsistent-this is a case of the Vikings being unable to beat a good team unless something crazy happens. That's not good enough for a team this talented or for a franchise that plans on winning a Super Bowl.

• Despite not rushing for 100 yards the last two games, Adrian Peterson is only two yards behind Michael Turner for the NFL rushing lead. Larry Johnson, who has 415 yards, is the only other running back with more than 400 yards. Peterson's been a lot more consistent, however, and has been successful against more than just the worst rush defenses. Michael Turner has amassed 324 of his 422 yards (76.7%) against Kansas City and Detroit, who are 27th and 32nd in rushing DVOA, and was held to 42 yards by Tampa Bay, who is 3rd in rushing DVOA and 56 yards by the Carolina Panthers, who are 19th in rushing DVOA. Peterson has faced the 29th (Packers), 25th (Colts), 19th (Panthers) and 6th (Titans), while rushing for 438 yards, but he has yet to be shut down in a game like Turner has been twice and his best two games only account for 62.6% of his yards. Larry Johnson has been erratic, like Turner, only rushing for 22 yards against the Raiders (21st in rushing DVOA) and 74 against the Patriots (26th) while racking up 319 of his 415 yards (76.8%) against Atlanta (15th) and Denver (10th).
  

• Chad Greenway is 5th in the NFL in tackles, with 34, only 7 behind Dhani Jones, who leads the league.

• Adrian Peterson needs to average 131.6 yards per game over the last 12 games in order to accomplish his goal of rushing for 2000 yards. If he kept up his average of 5.1 yards per carry, he would need 308 carries to get the 1580 yards he needs. That would also mean he had the fourth most carries this decade, behind Larry Johnson in 2006 (416 carries), Eddie George in 2000 (403) and Ricky Williams in 2003 (397). None of them made it to 1000 yards the next year.

Another Lost Season (A Plea for a new Coach)

I'll admit it--I watched the Twins game yesterday from the start. I only caught the first hour or so, and some of the game during commercials. And you know what? I made the right decision.

The Vikings' have their draws--the Purple Jesus, E.J. Henderson, the defensive line--but this team isn't any more special than last year's team. It has the same talent level, the same massive question marks in the passing game, the same poor play calling and the players make the same fundamental mistakes. So why should I get excited about a team that's on its way to another 8-8 season at best?

And let's be honest--this team is on its way to another .500 season. The Bears are looking like the Bears of 2006 and 2004 again. Brad Childress can't beat the Packers. The Jaguars, Giants, Saints and Buccaneers are all good teams. And really, would any one be surprised to see the Texans or Cardinals beat the Vikings? There are easily 5 losses left on the Vikings' schedule, if not more. I don't know that I see 7 wins, let alone the 8 or 9 that would be required for the Purple to win the division.

And yes, I place the blame for this firmly at the feet of Brad Childress. It is his fault that the Vikings are forced to rely on Gus Frerotte to quarterback. It is his fault that the offense is designed so poorly. It his fault that the play calls are so inexplicable (he called the punt with two minutes to go with the Vikings down two and he called the deep pass play that took Adrian Peterson off the field on a 3rd and 1 to name two horrible decisions). And it is his fault that the Vikings are 1-3 despite having a team that is playoff caliber in every aspect of the game except for when they are throwing the ball.

If the Purple do not make the playoffs this year, Brad Childress should be fired. He's had three years and all the support he could possibly want from his owner. And he's only been able to manage a 15-21 record that includes a home loss to the Redskins with the playoffs on the line. We have to remember that the ultimate goal for this franchise is not the playoffs or the division title. The ultimate goal is a Super Bowl victory. If Brad Childress can't make the playoffs with this team, there's no reason to believe he'll ever be able to coach a team to the title (not that he's shown any reason to believe he could do that so far). And if the coach doesn't have the ability to win the Super Bowl, the Vikings need to get a new coach. It's that simple.

Killing Time: Fallout from the End of the Tarvaris Revolution

Fallout from the end of the Tarvaris Revolution:

• Tarvaris' failure has shaken Brad Childress' confidence (and no, I don't think that's a bad thing--maybe it will lead to him reassessing his awful playcalling).
• Gonzo and Jason Winters are shocked that Childress would actually make the change after his hard headness this offseason.
• Cold, Hard Football Facts point out the large knife sticking out of Tarvaris' back.
• Player reactions.

Playcalling issues:
I still believe Tarvaris' development was hurt by his coaches. Would it have turned him into Jay Cutler? Probably not, but better coaching on fundamentals and better play calling could have been the difference between 0-2 and 2-0. The predictability of the Vikings' offensive game plan is pathetic, and not something that should be a problem for a third year head coach with an offensive background.

Advanced NFL Stats and Smart Football both have pieces on the negative effect of predictable playcalling.

Injuries:
Sydney Rice and Bernard Berrian are both battling injuries right now. Bryant McKinnie is still out for two more games. Tarvaris wasn't able to overcome his top two receivers being dinged up. Will Frerotte? (Probably not. Why couldn't the Vikings get a real backup quarterback?)

And that doesn't even factor in the injury to Madieu Williams, who might not have made the same mistakes rookie Tyrell Johnson has made that have lead to multiple deep completions.

And sadly, Visanthe Shiancoe is not injured, nor will he be on the inactive list.

Power Rankings:
After falling to 0-2, the Vikings continued to fall in the power rankings. They've dropped from just outside of the top ten to inside the top twenty and now, are outside of the top twenty with an average of 20.2. A win over the Panthers, who have an average rank of 7th, would certainly help the Vikings' move up, but don't expect them to get near their preseason ranking unless they go on a winning streak.

1. Cold, Hard Football Facts.com (19)
2. Foxsports.com (19)
3. ESPN.com (21)
4. CBSsportsline.com (22)
5. Dr. Z's rankings on CNNSI.com (20)

Sunday:
People are already talking about the Panthers as one of the best teams in the NFL, which is no surprise after going 2-0 against the Chargers and Bears. The interesting thing, is, according to Football Outsiders, the Vikings have a higher overall DVOA. The Panthers have higher DVOA on offense, but they're only ranked 15th, while the Vikings are 18th. Defensively, the Purple have played better, and are ranked 11th, with a -5.8% DVOA, while the Panthers have a positive DVOA (you want a negative DVOA defensively), and are 17th overall.

Then again, Steve Smith is going to be playing for the first time on Sunday, and he'll be fired up (his family is even going to be there). I fully expect him to torch Cedric Griffin like he did Fred Smoot, if Leslie Frazier makes the mistake of not keeping Antoine Winfield on Smith all game long.

Killing Time: From 0-2 to the Playoffs

Yesterday, I mentioned that the Vikings only have an 11.4% chance of making the playoffs after losing their first two games. They've dug themselves a hole that only 27 teams have pulled themselves out of since the advent of the 16 game schedule, and only three teams have gotten out of an 0-2 hole in the last five years. So what did last year's Super Bowl Champions, the 2006 Chiefs and the 2003 Eagles all have in common?

They all won their next two games to get back to .500. It didn't hurt that only the Giants had to beat a team that made the playoffs that year in order to win two straight, but none of the three teams had an easy next two games, as all but the Chiefs faced teams that finished around .500.

The Giants ripped off six straight wins after their 0-2 start, but the Chiefs and Eagles both lost their fifth game to fall to 2-3 and still rebounded. Despite that loss, the Eagles still managed to win 12 games in 2003, while the Chiefs ended up at an uninspiring 9-7.

Which means that Sunday's game against the Panthers and the following game against the Saints are pretty much must wins. A loss against the Panthers would drop the Vikings' playoffs odds to 3.4% and pretty much end any hope of the Purple making the playoffs.

I'm not the only one that's thinking like this either--the Pioneer Press has a comparison of the Vikings and last year's Giants.

Links:
The loss of Bryant McKinnie for the first four games has emphasized the ideas in Michael Lewis' "The Blind Side". Advanced NFL Stats and Sabermetric Research both have pieces on the underlying idea behind the book--that the Left Tackle is the second most important position on the offense.

Defensive Indifference on Brad Childress' play calling.

Vikings' Now on Tarvaris' Red Zone issues.

Daily Norseman on why the Vikings' won't be trading for Jeff Garcia.

Terrell Owens passed Chris Carter for second on the all time touchdown list on Monday Night. I can't say I'm particular happy to see Carter passed by Owens, even if I don't hate Owens in the way a lot of folks do. What I was really unhappy about was the fact that Owens managed to close 20 points of a 34 point lead I had in fantasy football in the first half of the game. That second half was pure torture after what I thought had been an easy win.

The Frustration of 0-2

If someone told you that the Vikings would hold the Colts to 18 points, hold Joseph Addai to 20 rushing yards and pick off Peyton Manning twice, you'd assume the Vikings won, right? Especially if they told you that Adrian Peterson went off for 160 yards on 29 carries. Of course, if they told you that Tarvaris Jackson only completed 50% of his passes while throwing for a paltry 130 yards and no touchdowns and that the Vikings were unable to score a single touchdown despite getting into field goal range six times, well, you'd probably guess, correctly, that the Vikings lost, and that it was painful. Man was it ever painful.

It wasn't even the final drive that Manning engineered that was the painful part. He's Peyton Manning--of course he's going to drive his team into field goal range with three seconds left on the clock. What was painful was the fact that the Vikings blew opportunity after opportunity to make that final drive meaningless. It is utterly inexcusable for a team to attempt six field goals against a team that could not stop the run and turned over the ball two times. The Vikings crossed midfield nine times on Sunday. They were in the red zone twice. And yet, they weren’t able to get into the end zone.

It was clear on Sunday that something was wrong with the offense. And after looking at the game log, it becomes clear—Brad Childress’ play calling is awful, and Tarvaris Jackson has trouble running the plays that Childress calls. Of those nine drives, six of them ended with short pass attempts that were either incomplete or didn’t pick up the first down. The other three ended with a run attempt on 3rd and 5 that didn’t pick up the first down, a sack (on what I assume was meant to be a short pass play) and a field goal as time expired at the half (which, sadly, one can’t blame Childress for).

Of Tarvaris’ 14 completions, 12 were described as “short passes” in the play by play. Of his 14 incomplete passes, 8 were described as “short passes”. It’s no surprise that Tarvaris averaged a pathetic 4.4 yards per pass attempt (more than a yard lower than Adrian Peterson’s 5.5 yards per carry) when you consider that he only threw two deep passes the entire game. Play calling like that is what turns touchdowns into field goals and victories into defeats. And it’s averages like that begs the question as to why the Colts didn’t start the game with Bob Sanders in the box.

Of course, none of that might have mattered if Visanthe Shiancoe could catch. Of course, he can’t, something that everyone except Brad Childress has figured out and something that he once again displayed in a crucial situation, dropping a touchdown pass on third down, forcing the Vikings to kick a field goal, and costing them four points in a game they lost by three.

And now, at 0-2, the Vikings face long odds to make the playoffs. According to the Pro Football Prospectus, of all the teams to start 0-2 in a 17 week season, only 11.4% have made the playoffs. In the last five years, however, there have been three teams to make the turn around from 0-2 to the playoffs—the 2003 Eagles, the 2006 Chiefs and the 2007 Giants. Of those teams, only the Eagles won their division (though the Giants, obviously, won the Super Bowl). So while making the playoffs from after an 0-2 start is a tough task, it’s not impossible. As the saying goes, it ain’t over, till it’s over.

The Hallowed LCL and Negativity Despite the "W"

And in the Third Game...
The Purple Jesus' rehab assignment is going very well so far. He hasn't been ruled out for the Giants game yet (though he should be, as he should not play without practicing for a whole week), but he could be running on land by Wednesday. As of today, Peterson should be back by the game against da Bears in Week 15. That would give him three more games to add to the 1081 yards he's run for so far. His closest competitor for the NFL rushing title, Willie Parker, is still more than 100 yards behind him (Parker has 925 yards). He's still got a shot at the title if he's able to come back by the Lions or Niners game. If he's not back until Week 15, he'll need to have a few Purple Jesus type games to make a run at the crown

The Failure on Third Down
The Vikings went 1/7 on third down yesterday. They're now 1/15 over the last two games and are now 36/118 on third down. That's 30.5%. If you're looking for an indictment of the offensive play calling, that stat says it all. The Vikings aren't able to convert in third and long situations and aren't able to get into third and short plays. They either get a first down on first or second down, or they punt, a situation all the more confusing because the Purple have a strong running game and run an offense that focuses on short passes.

Getting Torched
The Vikings secondary looked awful against the Raiders. And when I say awful, I mean "gave up 344 passing yards to a quarterback that had gotten benched for Josh McCown earlier this year" awful. And it's not like the Raiders gave up on the run, as they only passed 60% of their plays, a percentage that wasn't that high, considering the Vikings were ahead for most of the game.

I know it was Daunte making those throws, but lets be honest here--this isn't the Daunte we remember from the Vikings. This Daunte has had one, maybe two, good games since leaving the Vikings and had his knee shredded. Antoine Winfield had to leave early because of his hamstring injury, but that doesn't really explain why the Vikings' secondary were leaving people so wide open. Cedric Griffin has regressed and Marcus McCauley isn't playing up to his potential. To be honest, I think it has to do with the scheme and with the coaches, because the problem last year wasn't the secondary-it was the inability to get to the quarterback combined with the fact that teams did not even try to run the ball against the Purple, something that wasn't a problem on Sunday.

20,000
At some point between 8am and 9am today, the Ragnarok received its 20,000th visitor. As someone who writes because I need an outlet to talk Purple while surrounded by NFC East fans, I never really thought I'd hit that mark (Never really thought I'd hit 10,000, actually). So, just a word of thanks to everyone whose stopped by and Skol Vikings!

[I'll be traveling for the Holiday starting tomorrow. Not sure if I'll be able to post much over the Holiday, but I should be back by Monday at the latest. I'll be visiting family, so odds are I'll want to get away-it's just a matter of whether I can. Make sure to check back and see throughout the week.]

A Smattering of Thoughts As Hope Ends

The Domination Continues
Bryant Westbrook rushed for 46 yards on 21 carries. That's 2.2 yards per carry. This wasn't a case of a team choosing not to run. Rather, it was a case of a defense shutting down the run completely. As I mentioned when I named E.J. Henderson today's 1st Star, Westbrook is an elite back. He was averaging 5.5 yards per carry prior to today, and he's averaged 4.78 yards per carry for his career. And the Vikings held him to 2.2 yards per carry. The pass defense might be frustrating, but it's almost worth it if it means that I get to watch the Vikings dominate the run like they did today. Almost.

My Kingdom for a Pass Rush
The Eagles had ten drives and punted four times. The last punt came after the Eagles ran the ball three straight times while killing the clock. The other two punts in the second half came on drives where the Vikings sacked Donovan McNabb. That's not a coincidence. The coverage hasn't been as good this year as it was last year, but that's only part of the problem with the Vikings' problems against the pass. You can't cover a receiver forever. And while the Vikings are averaging almost one more sack per game than they did last year, it isn't enough, especially when you consider that the Vikings have seen more pass attempts than any other team, and that they get a sack once every 16.7 plays.

Stop Me Before I Challenge Again
One of the most infuriating things about the instant replay era has to be the Vikings inability to use their challenges properly. Mike Tice was awful at it, and so is Brad Childress. I'm not going to go into Tice's incompetence, but Childress wasted both of the Vikings' challenges today in his typical fashion. There's a poker saying that goes "Don't throw good money after bad", which warns poker players against continuing to bet when they know the pot is already lost. Based on how he uses his challenges, I'd bet that Childress hasn't heard that saying. Almost all of his challenges seem to come after frustrating plays, and they almost always seem to be an attempt to fix a mistake that can't be fixed. His use of a challenge after Peterson stepped out of bounds on the opening kickoff of the second half is a perfect example of this phenomenon. The replays clearly showed that Peterson had caught the ball and then stepped out of bounds. Yet Childress insisted on challenging it, throwing the good money (the challenge and the timeout) after the bad (Peterson's mistake).

Still the Leader
I've accepted that the Vikings aren't going to the playoffs (more on this tomorrow). It wasn't easy to do (you may have noticed that I'm quite good at convincing myself that the Vikings still have a chance, no matter the odds). When the Vikings were eliminated last year, I changed my focus from rooting for a win to rooting for the defense's quest to set the record for fewest rushing yards allowed. As you know, they didn't get it. Still, it gave me a reason to care about the last game of the season.

This year, my focus is going to be on the Purple Jesus' quest to lead the NFL in rushing. Despite the fact that he's only rushed for 133 yards over the last two games, Peterson is still hanging onto the league lead with 740 yards. Willie Parker, with 726 yards, is the only one within 100 yards of him (Willis McGahee is in third with 639 yards). All of the backs in the top ten have had their bye weeks at this point, so they all have the same amount of games remaining. I don't know if the Purple Jesus will be able to rebound from his past two games, but I pray that he does, because there's not a whole lot of other reasons to care about what happens over the next nine games.