That Looked Good

All in all, a solid preseason effort. The Vikings improved to 3-0 (right, it doesn't matter, but I remember the 1998 Vikings going 4-0 in the preseason, so I'm going to pretend it's a good sign), the starters scored 17 points in a half, a vintage Purple Jesus run out of the gates (and to the right side!) and the defense looked pretty solid against what is likely to be one of the best offenses in the NFL. A few more thoughts:

• The Vikings have racked up 36 penalties for 251 yards so far in the preseason. Now, obviously not all of those were from the starters, but considering they were called for 8 penalties for 60 yards in the first half (one of which was an offsetting unnecessary roughness penalty on Ray Edwards) it's not a good sign. Then again, the Vikings were only 17th overall in penalty yards and 16th in penalties, so it might not be that big of a deal.

• Am I excited about having a competent right tackle? You bet. Purple Jesus probably doesn't go 75 yards to start the game with Ryan Cook there. With Phil Loadholt opening up the cutback lane? 75 yards to the House. (Though, it probably doesn't hurt that Peterson hit 23 miles per hour to leave the Texans in his dust. And yes, that's a ridiculous speed, especially when you consider he didn't even look like he was trying.)

• I wasn't particularly impressed by the Wildcat plays. Now, I understand the Vikings aren't going to debut the entire package in the 3rd preseason game, but is it really necessary to line up Harvin in the shotgun so he can either hand the ball off to Peterson for a relatively nondescript 5 yard gain or fake the hand off and run off tackle where his 40 year old quarterback is going to fling himself (sometimes illegally!) into defenders and get hurt?
  

• On QB#4's block: In theory, I like the fact that he's willing to block for his teammates (IN THEORY--Communism works IN THEORY). In reality, however, I don't like the fact that our brittle, about to be 40 year old quarterback is throwing himself into defenders, especially considering that he was telling the press about his self diagnosed cracked ribs earlier today. And I especially don't like the fact that he's flinging himself into defenders knees. And no, QB#4, it's not ok because ""... [you]'ll be 40 years old in October and was weeding 13 days ago." Please never, ever, ever use the fact that you skipped training camp as an excuse again. That was your decision.

• The Purple ran a lot of screens last night. I like the idea of Adrian Peterson in space with lead blockers, and Chester Taylor has clearly shown that he can make things happen after he catches a pass (Something, I think, Eugene Wilson can attest to). I also like the fact that Childress is showing the screens in the preseason. If the Purple can establish themselves as a team that runs the screen well, it's going to really help QB#4 and the offensive line out, by forcing opponents' pass rush to slow down in order to account for the screen.
  

• And, I hate to admit it, but QB#4 played well yesterday, aside from the illegal crack back and taking a bad sack on 3rd and 2. The Texans defense isn't the Steelers' (or Ravens' or Vikings'), but it was good to know that the fact he skipped training camp hasn't held him back that much. He averaged 6.5 yards per attempt without Bernard Berrian (and including the fact that Percy Harvin should have caught Favre's throw in the corner of the end zone). That's a full half yard more than the Vikings' 5.97 yards per pass attempt last year and would have placed the Vikings 12th in the NFL instead of 18th. It was just one game, but I think we all know that the thing keeping the Vikings from being a legitimate Super Bowl contender has been their passing game. I'm not going to get excited just yet (and remember, QB#4 doesn't do the Vikings' any good if he collapses in the final weeks of the season), but it's a good sign.
  

The Failure of the Return Game

One of the problems with Brad Childress’ plan to win with defense, field position, the running game and the occasional big play was he forgot one of the most important components of field position: special teams. And I’m not just talking about the punt coverage. The Vikings had one of the worst return games in the NFL, barely presenting any threat to break a big play on a punt or kick return. It was pretty clear which team had put some thought into improving their return game last off season on Sunday, with DeSean Jackson racking up 109 punt return yards, including a 62 and 30 yard return, to the Vikings 1 return yard.

The stats for the season are equally bleak. The Vikings had only three kick returns longer than 40 yards, with their longest return being a 49 yarder by Darius Reynaud against Chicago in the Metrodome (he also had one of the other returns longer than 40 yards the next week against Detroit). They were one of only six NFL teams without a return of 50 yards or more. Their punt return game was equally bad. They led the NFL in fair catches, with 23. That means, of the 57 times a Vikings’ player caught a punt, they called for a fair catch 40% of the time. If you’re looking for a reason why the Purple only had four punt returns of more than 20 yards, and only one of more than 40 (Bernard Berrian’s 82 yard return for a touchdown), that’s probably the most likely.

There were a myriad of reasons for the Vikings’ futility. The first was Aundrae Allison’s failure to repeat his 2007 performance as a kick returner. In the first two games, he averaged 17.3 yards on three returns, with his longest return being 22 yards. At that point, the Vikings tried Chester Taylor, but he wasn’t much better. They tried Charles Gordon, who, while explosive (he had a return of 42 yards), got hurt. Then they tried veteran returner Maurice Hicks, who also wasn’t much better, but since he had no other role and he was a veteran, he stuck as the primary returner, returning 29 kicks. And he was bad. He averaged 23.8 yards per return, with only 7 returns of more than 30 yards. Basically what I expected. Darius Reynaud looked like he might turn into a quality returner, but he got hurt, which lead to more Hicks and even more poor kick off returns.

The Vikings' basically had the same problem at punt returner. They tried Aundrae Allison, but he was about as bad returning punts as kickoffs. They tried Charles Gordon, who, prior to getting hurt, averaged 4.4 yards per return while calling for 11 fair catches on 26 punts. They tried Bobby Wade and Bernard Berrian, neither of whom they wanted returning punts, since they're the Vikings' top two receivers. The two of them at least averaged more than ten yards per return, but Wade called for a fair catch on 50% of his punts, and while Berrian returned a punt 82 yards for a touchdown, he called for a fair catch on 42% of the punts he received.

Field position matters, especially when you have an offense built on running and short passes, like the Vikings. And the Vikings inability to find anything but mediocre punt and kick returners means that they had to go even further on each drive, something their offense just isn't equipped to do. The Purple averaged 29 yards per drive this year (according to Football Outsiders), which means that the difference between a fair catch at their own 30 yard line and a ten yard punt return to the 40 yard line was the difference between a punt and a field goal. And if that happened just once, it'd be the difference between the Vikings' being 12th in points per game and 3rd. With the Purple's defense, three points is a lot. And starting out with good field position may have been the difference in the playoffs, something we'll never know, since the Purple's return men never provided them with that luxury.

[I'm going to be out of town until Tuesday, so don't expect too many posts until then. I'll try and get something up, but my plans for what I'm going to do when traveling and what actually happens rarely seems to match up]

Two Reasons the Vikings Will Win

There are obviously more than two reasons why the Purple can win the game on Sunday. But two of the biggest (and I hope that Brad Childress realizes this while game planning) are Visanthe Shaincoe and Chester Taylor. I think they might even be the two most important offensive players on the field on Sunday, because the Eagles have struggled against similar players all year.

Philadelphia's strong against the run (3rd in DVOA) and strong against the pass (3rd in DVOA). Where they're weak, however, is against tight ends (19th in DVOA) and against running backs in the passing game (18th in DVOA). And this is borne out by more than just the advanced statistics. In each of the Eagles' losses, either a running back or tight end was their opponents leading receiver (except for their loss to the Ravens, where they turned the ball over 5 times, although a running back was their second leading receiver).

And it makes sense when you consider the way the Eagles play as well. This is a blitzing defense. When you're sending linebackers and safeties after the quarterback, you're removing the players that would normally be covering the tight ends and running backs. Also, you're forcing the quarterback to make quick decisions, which usually means they're going to throw their pass to a safety valve, which is usually either the tight end or running back.

So what does it mean? It means that Visanthe Shaincoe's emergence (he's currently second among Tight Ends in DYAR and DVOA) could be the single most important thing for the Vikings this Sunday. And it could mean that we see a lot more of Chester Taylor on passing downs (or, you know, if Brad Childress wanted to get creative, he could play BOTH Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor on passing downs, though that's probably just crazy talk). And it means that, even though they're the best team in the NFL, according to DVOA, the Vikings have the weapons to exploit the Eagles defense.

Starting on a Sour Note

Once again, my plans for a big August were interrupted by travel. For some reason, despite being in a far away place for business, by myself, I just never found the time I wanted to preview the season. Of course, part of that was due to the fact that I wasn't able to watch any of the preseason games and the rest due to the fact that the offseason has been one of waiting, rather than one for arguments, once the Vikings finished up their roster selection. I mean, what was there to argue about, aside from the final wide receiver spot?

That being said, the preseason has exposed the current staff's inability to foresee upcoming issues, even when they are staring them in the face. It was an issue last year, when they didn't go out and get a backup for Tarvaris Jackson, despite the fact he was barely a year removed from playing 1-AA football and it is an issue again at quarterback (Do you trust Gus Frerrote? I know I don't, which is not a good sign, what with Tarvaris already suffering his first injury of the year) and now at left tackle, where the Vikings seem to have no problem playing the first quarter of the season with Artis Hicks protecting Tarvaris' blindside and attempting to open up running lanes for Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor on the left side of the line.

I know I don't trust Hicks to protect Tarvaris from right guard, with the help of Matt Birk and Ryan Cook (and neither did the Vikings, who benched him after four games last year), let alone on an island against some of the top defensive ends in the NFL. I could list them here, but I'm sure we'll all get to hear their names often enough, usually followed by some riff on the phrase "sacks Tarvaris Jackson". Luckily, the Vikings saw the writing on the wall and gave Hicks a lot of reps at left tackle with the first unit.

What Artis Hicks might bring, however, is the ability to continue running the ball to the left side. Since signing Steve Hutchinson to pair with McKinnie, the Vikings have been dominate running the ball to the left side (not including the issues created by McKinnie's injuries in 2007). Last year, the Purple averaged 4.68 yards on runs around left end and 4.21 yards to left tackle, compared with 3.49 yards per carry around right end and 4.09 yards on runs to right tackle (these numbers are from this year's Pro Football Prospectus). That was a huge drop from the year before, when Artis Hicks started 14 games at right guard, where the Vikings averaged 5.15 yards around right end and 4.54 yards to right tackle. I don't know how much of that success can really be attributed to Hicks, but it's a reason to be hopeful that McKinnie's suspension won't completely derail the running game like it will the passing game.

Hick's run blocking might be enough to keep the Vikings' offense moving, but in the end, the left tackle's main job is keeping his quarterback from getting killed. So what happens if (when, more likely) Tarvaris gets lit up and knocked out after yet another "Look Out" block by Hicks? Let's put it this way--Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor will be facing 9 men in the box again, despite the signing of Bernard Berrian (I'm still pretending his toe injury is no big deal--let me have something, please) and the likely improvement by Sidney Rice. So yeah, lots of excitement heading into the opener on Monday.

The Purple Jesus' Chances at 2000

About a month ago, Adrian Peterson, the Purple Jesus himself, said that he wanted to rush for 2000 yards. My first reaction? He's not going to do it. And, after doing some research, I think my first reaction was the right one.

Now, I don't doubt that Peterson has the ability--I mean, after last year, could you really argue that he doesn't have the rushing talent of Barry Sanders, O.J. Simpson, Jamal Lewis , Eric Dickerson and Terrell Davis? I don't think you can do that. Even if you discount the fact that Peterson has had injury issues throughout his career (including missing the majority of three games last year), the odds are against him setting the record (it's only been done 5 times, remember), and even more so because of his teammate, Chester Taylor.

Last year, the Vikings ran the ball 494 times. Peterson lead the team with 238 carries, 81 more than Taylor's 157 attempts. Neither of those statistics bode well for Peterson's chances to crack the 2000 yard mark. Of the five backs to rush for 2000 yards, only O.J. Simpson and Barry Sanders did so with less than 350 carries (332 and 335 respectively). That means that Peterson's going to have to carry the ball at least 100 more times next year to have a shot at 2000 yards, and even more than that unless he increases his yards per carry average (at last seasons total of 5.6 YPC, he would have needed 357 carries to get to 2000 yards). That's a lot of carries nowadays, even for a team as reliant on the run as the Vikings are (to put that number into context, Clinton Portis lead the NFL in carries last year, with 325). And that's a lot of carries for a team with a second back as good as Taylor. And in order to get those carries, Peterson would have to get the ball on an even higher percent of the running plays than it looks like on the surface, because Tarvaris Jackson had 54 carries, meaning the Vikings really only called a running play about 450 times.

And make no mistake about it--if Peterson's going to get to 2000 yards, he's only going to do so by taking Taylor's carries. There have been 23 running backs to rush for at least 1750 yards. Only O.J. Simpson in 1975 (1817 yards) had a teammate that had more than 150 carries (Though, to be fair, in 1973, Simpson had a teammate with 98 carries and one with 148 carries, and he rushed for 2003 yards. That team also ran the ball 605 times, something I highly doubt the Vikings will do next season).

Aside from those two Bills teams that featured O.J. Simpson, only three other running backs rushed for 1750 yards and had a teammate with more than 100 carries, and all three had less than 1900 yards. (Eric Dickerson had 1821 yards in 1986, Larry Johnson had 1750 yards in 2005 and Walter Payton had 1852 yards in 1977).

So, unless Peterson adds more than 100 carries next year (mostly by taking Taylor's carries) and maintains his yards per carry average, he's not going to be able to reach 2000 yards next year. And that's probably for the best, since Peterson would likely feel the effects of all those carries the next year, and possibly the rest of his career. All five backs that cracked 1000 yards rushed for 500-1000 yards less the next year, and Terrell Davis never played more than 8 games in a season after he topped the 2000 yard mark.

2000 yards is a good goal for Peterson to have. It's not, however, a good goal for the team to have for him, unless they want to alienate Chester Taylor and shorten Peterson's career. I think the Vikings are smarter than that. I hope they are, at least.

Mike Sellers Runs His Mouth

This is Mike Sellers. Mike Sellers is the fullback for the Washington Redskins. And he’s got a chip on his shoulder. You see, Sellers here, he got left off of the Pro Bowl roster because the fans, coaches and players thought chose Tony Richardson instead. Mike Sellers isn’t going to take that lying down though. Oh no, not Mike Sellers. Instead, he’s going to show the entire world why he should have been chosen for the Pro Bowl by helping the Redskins out rush the Minnesota Vikings.

It’s certainly an interesting idea, but how likely is it? I mean, the Vikings rush defense isn’t an ordinary rush defense. Nope. It’s got Kevin and Pat Williams, E.J. Henderson, Chad Greenway, Ben Leber and Keneci Udeze. It almost set the record for best rush defense EVER last year, and it’s been dominate once again, allowing only 2.97 yards per carry this season. Ryan Grant is the only back that has rushed for more than 100 yards against them and that game was the only game in which Vikings were out rushed this season. And I’d bet that the defense has a little extra motivation now that Sellers has started running his mouth.

And it’s not like the Redskins have a dominate rushing game either. The ‘Skins are averaging a paltry 3.81 yards per carry, which is only good for 23^rd in the league. While they had some success (4.4 YPC) against the Giants, who have a decent run defense (3.96 YPC allowed), the Giants are allowing almost a yard more per carry than the Vikings. And even after that game, neither Clinton Portis nor Ladell Betts is averaging 4 yards a carry, with Portis averaging 3.9 YPC and Betts averaging 3.7 YPC.

It doesn’t look good for Mr. Sellers, and we haven’t even gotten to the Vikings running game (or the Todd Collins run Redskins passing game, and its average of 6.1 yards per passing attempt). Aside from the three Pro Bowlers on the line, the Vikings’ have the Purple Jesus, who’s averaging an amazing 5.9 yards per carry. If he can up that average by a tenth of yard, he’ll be the fourth running back to average 6 yards per carry in the history of the NFL, joining O.J. Simpson, Jim Brown and Barry Sanders. He’s so good, he managed to gain ground in the race for the rushing title without even playing last night! And he, along with his partner, Chester Taylor (5.3 YPC), will be going up against a run defense that is allowing 3.92 yards per carry for the season. That’s right-the Redskins are allowing more yards per carry on defense than they are gaining on offense. And that’s before taking into consideration the fact that they lost their second leading tackler, LB Rocky McIntosh, to a horrible knee injury on Sunday, not to mention the tragic loss of their Pro Bowl strong safety (and honorary Viking), Sean Taylor.

Doesn’t look all that likely that Mr. Sellers will be able to achieve his goal, does it?

Three Stars and Some Links

Ok, so I promised that I'd have these up Monday Afternoon, but, well, I'm still waiting on a new computer (my personal one is broken) and I got swamped at work. That doesn't mean there weren't stars of the game, though! Oh no, don't you worry. We're going to have a consensus MVP this year even if it kills us (and no, I don't think that crowning the Purple Jesus as MVP will kill us). So let's take a look at the three Vikings that turned in the best performances against the Niners. Without them, who knows if the Purple would have done something they'd never done in their 707 regular season game, by winning their third straight game by at least twenty points.

Third Star: Kevin Williams

Kevin Williams' impact on the game can be almost completely described by describing one play. Aside from his interception return for a touchdown, however, he only assisted on one tackle. Of course, Kevin Williams impacts the play even if he isn't making tackles or sacking the quarterback. And he really impacts the play when he makes the fourth interception of his career and returns it for a touchdown, the fourth of his career, effectively ending the game on the 49ers first real play from scrimmage.

2nd Star: Chester Taylor

On a day when Adrian Peterson was held to 2 yards and 14 carries, Taylor rushed for 101 yards, most of which came on an 83 yard touchdown run, the longest by any back so far this season. He has 716 yards so far on the season, and could join Peterson in the 1,000 yard club if he can average 95 yards a game over the final three games of the season. He's been averaging 70.8 yards per game since his return from injury, so it's not outside of the realm of possibility, especially if he breaks off a few more runs like his 84 yarder.

1st Star: Pat Williams

Did you know, that, after handing out 12 weeks worth of stars, Pat Williams has only managed to be recognized once? He was the 2nd Star against the Raiders, accumulating 9 tackles and helping hold Oakland's rushing attack to only 2.26 yards per carry on 27 carries. I can't help but think that I've somehow overlooked the man who might be the most important player on the Vikings' vaunted run defense. That's not an issue this week, however, as it's not possible to overlook someone who had five tackles, a sack (thankfully for Trent Dilfer's health, Big Pat got him with an arm tackle instead of using his full weight) and an interception. Sadly, he didn't get a chance to show off the open field skills he was bragging about to the announcers before the game.

Links

• Gonzo from the Daily Norseman is ecstatic about da Bears starting Kyle Orton. As am I. As am I. (Special thanks to Deadspin for all of the pictures).

• Grant's Tomb and Vikes Geek both tried to explain why the Vikings had so much trouble running against a pretty poor Niners run defense. Personally, I think it had a lot to do with the Niners blitzing a lot on first and second down, which would explain why Peterson and Taylor were tackled for losses seven different times, with Peterson going down behind the backfield six times. It seemed that every time Peterson was in during a running situation, the Niners brought the house. If there's one thing that Childress needs to spend the week on, it's figuring out how to adjust to that strategy, because it will almost certainly be emulated from here on out.
  

• Football Outsiders has the Vikings with a 65.9% chance of making the playoffs. Sports Club Stats has them with a 43% chance. Neither site has any of the teams trailing the Vikings in the Wild Card race with odds that high. In fact, only the Saints have a better than 1 in 5 chance, as Football Outsiders and Sports Club Stats have them at 23.3% and 20.1% respectively.
  

• A nice little satire piece: "Vikings fined for having Adrian Peterson wear Chester Taylor's uniform". It would have worked better if Taylor's 84 yard run on Sunday wasn't the longest in the NFL so far this year and his 95 yard run against Seattle wasn't the longest run last year.