Maurice Hicks:
The Vikings waived Maurice Hicks yesterday, ending what was a failed free agent pick up. Hicks was brought in to improve the Vikings special teams, specifically their return games, even though he hadn't shown the ability to be anything other than a mediocre returner (as I pointed out when he signed). His signing was an example of valuing experience over talent, and it came back to hurt the Vikings, as he had a key fumble on a kickoff return against Tampa Bay, had 9 returns of less than 20 yards and never once returned a kickoff more than 40 yards. For a team built on defense and the running game (i.e., field position), having a good kick returner is important, which is why Hicks' signing was so damaging to the Vikings last year.
The Combine:
The Combine started yesterday, and while it's nowhere important, it can be a useful tool in evaluating draft prospects for the teams that approach it properly. Based on this interview with Rick Speilman, I think the Vikings do it right (h/t ESPN NFC North Blog). They aren't going to give too much weight to the workouts, but they are going to use it as a way to get a handle on the people these draft prospects are. The Vikings have done a good job in the draft since the infamous 2005 draft, and their approach to the Combine has certainly contributed to that.
Tackle Depth:
One of the things that I (along with most Viking's fans) have forgotten about is the impending resolution of the Williams Wall's legal battle over their suspension. Depending on the outcome, the Vikings might be short both of their starting tackles for the first four games of the season. And, even if they aren't suspended, the Williams' backups, Fred Evans and Ellis Wyms, are both free agents this year (although Evans is only a restricted free agent). The Vikings took LaTroy Guion in the fifth round last year to help at tackle, but additional depth would be nice, especially if Guion isn't ready to contribute after spending last year adjusting to the NFL. The National Football Post has a breakdown of the available free agent defensive tackles, and someone like Ryan Boschetti or Grady Jackson would be a welcome addition to the defensive line.
Showing posts with label Maurice Hicks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Maurice Hicks. Show all posts
Thursday, February 19, 2009
Wednesday, January 07, 2009
The Failure of the Return Game
One of the problems with Brad Childress’ plan to win with defense, field position, the running game and the occasional big play was he forgot one of the most important components of field position: special teams. And I’m not just talking about the punt coverage. The Vikings had one of the worst return games in the NFL, barely presenting any threat to break a big play on a punt or kick return. It was pretty clear which team had put some thought into improving their return game last off season on Sunday, with DeSean Jackson racking up 109 punt return yards, including a 62 and 30 yard return, to the Vikings 1 return yard.
The stats for the season are equally bleak. The Vikings had only three kick returns longer than 40 yards, with their longest return being a 49 yarder by Darius Reynaud against Chicago in the Metrodome (he also had one of the other returns longer than 40 yards the next week against Detroit). They were one of only six NFL teams without a return of 50 yards or more. Their punt return game was equally bad. They led the NFL in fair catches, with 23. That means, of the 57 times a Vikings’ player caught a punt, they called for a fair catch 40% of the time. If you’re looking for a reason why the Purple only had four punt returns of more than 20 yards, and only one of more than 40 (Bernard Berrian’s 82 yard return for a touchdown), that’s probably the most likely.
There were a myriad of reasons for the Vikings’ futility. The first was Aundrae Allison’s failure to repeat his 2007 performance as a kick returner. In the first two games, he averaged 17.3 yards on three returns, with his longest return being 22 yards. At that point, the Vikings tried Chester Taylor, but he wasn’t much better. They tried Charles Gordon, who, while explosive (he had a return of 42 yards), got hurt. Then they tried veteran returner Maurice Hicks, who also wasn’t much better, but since he had no other role and he was a veteran, he stuck as the primary returner, returning 29 kicks. And he was bad. He averaged 23.8 yards per return, with only 7 returns of more than 30 yards. Basically what I expected. Darius Reynaud looked like he might turn into a quality returner, but he got hurt, which lead to more Hicks and even more poor kick off returns.
The Vikings' basically had the same problem at punt returner. They tried Aundrae Allison, but he was about as bad returning punts as kickoffs. They tried Charles Gordon, who, prior to getting hurt, averaged 4.4 yards per return while calling for 11 fair catches on 26 punts. They tried Bobby Wade and Bernard Berrian, neither of whom they wanted returning punts, since they're the Vikings' top two receivers. The two of them at least averaged more than ten yards per return, but Wade called for a fair catch on 50% of his punts, and while Berrian returned a punt 82 yards for a touchdown, he called for a fair catch on 42% of the punts he received.
Field position matters, especially when you have an offense built on running and short passes, like the Vikings. And the Vikings inability to find anything but mediocre punt and kick returners means that they had to go even further on each drive, something their offense just isn't equipped to do. The Purple averaged 29 yards per drive this year (according to Football Outsiders), which means that the difference between a fair catch at their own 30 yard line and a ten yard punt return to the 40 yard line was the difference between a punt and a field goal. And if that happened just once, it'd be the difference between the Vikings' being 12th in points per game and 3rd. With the Purple's defense, three points is a lot. And starting out with good field position may have been the difference in the playoffs, something we'll never know, since the Purple's return men never provided them with that luxury.
[I'm going to be out of town until Tuesday, so don't expect too many posts until then. I'll try and get something up, but my plans for what I'm going to do when traveling and what actually happens rarely seems to match up]
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Killing Time: 5 Tidbits from the Prospectus
One of my favorite moments of the year happened last night--my Football Prospectus arrived. If you don't know, it's written by the folks at Football Outsiders (with an assist from the folks at Baseball Prospectus). I had a chance to flip through it last night, and though I'm saving it for later (as much as I can) because I have a massive trip coming up next week (though I should still be able to post), I did notice some interesting tidbits while flipping through it. I also plan on stealing a bit called "Ask the Prospectus" from Joe Posnanski and using it to preview the upcoming season.
But first, some interesting stuff I saw last night while watching the Twins demolish the White Sox (which I really enjoyed).
But first, some interesting stuff I saw last night while watching the Twins demolish the White Sox (which I really enjoyed).
- One of the ways that the Prospectus evaluates defensive lineman is by the percentage of a team's plays they make while playing. Guess who was #1 last year? That's right--Jared Allen, with 10.7%. He's joined in the top 5 by Pat Williams, who was 3rd overall with 8.7%, and he also gets to work with Kevin Williams, who was 30th with 5.2% and Ray Edwards, who was 53rd with 5.3%. No other defense that I saw had a front four that made that many plays. That line is going to be ridiculous next year.
- Payton Manning is on pace to break Brett Favre's touchdown and yards record in 2013, when he's 37 (assuming that Favre ends up back in Mississippi this year). It'll take Manning a little longer to take the title of "Interception King" from Favre, however -- it'll take Manning until 2021, when he's 45, to break Favre's interception mark. And yes, I will be pulling for Manning to maintain his pace until 2014 or 2015 and then retire, leaving Favre with only one record--most interceptions thrown.
- I'm still not sure about the Maurice Hicks signing, since I think he'll end up returning kicks instead of the younger, better Aundrae Allison, but the Prospectus notes that he's both a very good blocker and a great receiver out of the backfield. They predict that he'll end up catching 72% of the passes thrown his way (down from the 88% last year), and average 8.8 yards per catch. If he turns into a nice third down option for the Purple and a decent backup, I'll be happy. If he's used a lot on special teams instead of younger, better players, I won't be. Simple as that. And yes, I do plan on beating this horse until it's way past dead.
- Randy Moss racked up the second most DYAR by a wide receiver in the history of Football Outsiders last year (their stats go back to 1995), behind only Michael Irvin in 1995. He was one of only two receivers to show up in the top ten (Marvin Harrison did as well) as his 2003 season was the 8th best. Yes, I still miss him--why do you ask?
- The Vikings' tight end situation can be summed up thusly: Jim Kleinsasser is described with the statement "This is not a tight end, this is not a fullback, this is a slightly undersized tackle who occasionally, perhaps accidently, finds the ball in his hands". Visanthe Shiancoe is projected to have a career year where he catches 56 passes for 396 yards and 3 touchdowns and dark horse candidate for the job, Garrett Mills, doesn't even get a projection.
Friday, March 07, 2008
The Tyranny of Veterans and A Lack of Defensive Ends
The Vikings have been riding high since the beginning of free agency. They've addressed their needs at fullback, safety and wide receiver, watched the star quarterback of the division favorite retire and laughed as the two teams they finished ahead of last year got worse. Aside from the Favre retirement, however, they have had mixed results this week, signing running back/return specialist Maurice Hicks and scheduling multiple visits with defensive ends that never happened.
Maurice Hicks
I'm with Pacifist Viking on this one--I don't understand this signing. It seems that Hicks is meant to replace Mewelde Moore, who signed with the Steelers, as the third down back and punt returner. The thing is, the Vikings don't really need the former, and Hicks has no experience with the latter. With Chester Taylor and the Purple Jesus, the Vikings don't really need to worry too much about finding a third down back, which is one of the main reasons that Moore is now wearing Black and Gold. With the talent ahead of him, Hicks should only be used if needed due to injuries, because he doesn't add anything in the passing game that Taylor or Peterson does, averaging less than a catch a game for 7.7 yards over his four years. If he is needed to step up due to injury, however, he should be fine, as he has a career rushing average of 4.2 yards per carry.
So as added depth at running back, Hicks is a fine signing. As a return specialist, however, he's surprisingly inexperienced at the position the Vikings need him most--punt returner. He's never returned a punt in the NFL. With the loss of Moore, only Bobby Wade and Charles Gordon (who, in 2006, returned 1 punt for 1 yard) have any experiencing returning punts on the Vikings' roster. As the starting slot receiver, Wade is too important to the offense to spend a lot of time returning punts, and there's obviously a reason why Gordon only got one chance. Which likely means that the Purple are going to try Hicks back there, something that isn't ideal. Returning punts is, in my opinion, harder than returning kickoffs, because the punt returner has to make their decision more quickly and has to do so while the coverage team converges on them. Kick returners usually have a little more time, and can catch the ball without worrying about getting drilled immediately or whether they need to call a fair catch. Any decision they make comes after the catch, which is why returning punts isn't necessarily something you want an inexperienced player doing.
The other reason the Hicks signing seems like a mistake is that the Purple already have a solid kick returner. Aundrae Allison averaged 28.7 yards on 20 returns last year, including a franchise record 104 yard return for a touchdown. That performance, however, wasn't enough to keep Allison as the return man all year, as Childress had Adrian Peterson returning kicks in Week 17. In contrast, Hicks returned 63 kicks for an average of 23.8 yards per return last year and has a career average of 22.9 yards per return. He has 185 career returns, but he's never returned a kick for touchdown and he's only returned 8 kicks for more than 40 yards, something Allison has already done three times. In fact, the Hicks signing seems like it was made to allow Childress to go with the "veteran" over the more talented and explosive second year player, a mistake the Purple can't afford with their offensive deficiencies.
Defensive Ends
The only one of their weaknesses that the Vikings have yet to address is defensive end. They've scheduled multiple visits with free agent pass rushers, but have yet to have any make it to Winter Park, watching Justin Smith, Antwan Odom and Javon Kearse sign with other teams. The thing is, I'm not sure that any of them were the answer. Smith was mediocre last year, only notching 2.5 sacks, has never been dominant (his career high is 8.5 sacks in his rookie year) and signed a huge contract with the 49ers, which the Vikings would have had to match if they'd signed him. Odom had a breakout year last year with 8 sacks, but had never had more than 2 in a season before that. And Kearse's injury history (he hasn't played in 16 games in a season since 2001) , which has been matched by a performance decline, should have told everyone that he was not the answer to the Purple's pass rush problems.
It's for those reasons that I don't think the Vikings need to be too worried about their inability to land a pass rusher in free agency. Nor do I think that they need to be as worried about their pass rush going into next year, because they have two young defensive ends in Brian Robison and Ray Edwards that have shown the ability to get to the quarterback. Robison was a rookie last year, and Edwards was only in his second year, and despite Robison hitting the proverbial rookie wall and Edwards "missing" the last four games of the year, Robison had 4.5 sacks and Edwards had 5, tying them for fourth and first overall. A full offseason of NFL training for Robison and a full season from Edwards should allow both of them to take another step toward becoming an elite pass rusher. And any improvement on the ends will likely lead to an improvement in the middle, as it will take opponents' focus away from the Williams.
The real problem lies with the Vikings' lack of depth behind Robison and Edwards. Darrion Scott is an unrestricted free agent, Keneci Udeze is likely out for the year because of leukemia and Erasmus James is coming off of another injury and has only played 8 games in the last two years. Jayme Mitchell and Otis Grigsby are still on the roster, and while Mitchell is good enough to be a part of the defensive end rotation (Grigsby is roster filler) neither is good enough to be a major part of the rotation.
What this means is that the Vikings have to find quality players to support Robison and Edwards, something that isn't readily available in the free agent market (the complete list is available here). So the Purple likely will look to the draft to provide their young defensive line with more depth. As I've said before, there are quite a few quality ends available, and, with the Berrian signing, the Vikings can focus on their pass rush in the draft, something I'll be doing next week, barring anything crazy happening.
Maurice Hicks
I'm with Pacifist Viking on this one--I don't understand this signing. It seems that Hicks is meant to replace Mewelde Moore, who signed with the Steelers, as the third down back and punt returner. The thing is, the Vikings don't really need the former, and Hicks has no experience with the latter. With Chester Taylor and the Purple Jesus, the Vikings don't really need to worry too much about finding a third down back, which is one of the main reasons that Moore is now wearing Black and Gold. With the talent ahead of him, Hicks should only be used if needed due to injuries, because he doesn't add anything in the passing game that Taylor or Peterson does, averaging less than a catch a game for 7.7 yards over his four years. If he is needed to step up due to injury, however, he should be fine, as he has a career rushing average of 4.2 yards per carry.
So as added depth at running back, Hicks is a fine signing. As a return specialist, however, he's surprisingly inexperienced at the position the Vikings need him most--punt returner. He's never returned a punt in the NFL. With the loss of Moore, only Bobby Wade and Charles Gordon (who, in 2006, returned 1 punt for 1 yard) have any experiencing returning punts on the Vikings' roster. As the starting slot receiver, Wade is too important to the offense to spend a lot of time returning punts, and there's obviously a reason why Gordon only got one chance. Which likely means that the Purple are going to try Hicks back there, something that isn't ideal. Returning punts is, in my opinion, harder than returning kickoffs, because the punt returner has to make their decision more quickly and has to do so while the coverage team converges on them. Kick returners usually have a little more time, and can catch the ball without worrying about getting drilled immediately or whether they need to call a fair catch. Any decision they make comes after the catch, which is why returning punts isn't necessarily something you want an inexperienced player doing.
The other reason the Hicks signing seems like a mistake is that the Purple already have a solid kick returner. Aundrae Allison averaged 28.7 yards on 20 returns last year, including a franchise record 104 yard return for a touchdown. That performance, however, wasn't enough to keep Allison as the return man all year, as Childress had Adrian Peterson returning kicks in Week 17. In contrast, Hicks returned 63 kicks for an average of 23.8 yards per return last year and has a career average of 22.9 yards per return. He has 185 career returns, but he's never returned a kick for touchdown and he's only returned 8 kicks for more than 40 yards, something Allison has already done three times. In fact, the Hicks signing seems like it was made to allow Childress to go with the "veteran" over the more talented and explosive second year player, a mistake the Purple can't afford with their offensive deficiencies.
Defensive Ends
The only one of their weaknesses that the Vikings have yet to address is defensive end. They've scheduled multiple visits with free agent pass rushers, but have yet to have any make it to Winter Park, watching Justin Smith, Antwan Odom and Javon Kearse sign with other teams. The thing is, I'm not sure that any of them were the answer. Smith was mediocre last year, only notching 2.5 sacks, has never been dominant (his career high is 8.5 sacks in his rookie year) and signed a huge contract with the 49ers, which the Vikings would have had to match if they'd signed him. Odom had a breakout year last year with 8 sacks, but had never had more than 2 in a season before that. And Kearse's injury history (he hasn't played in 16 games in a season since 2001) , which has been matched by a performance decline, should have told everyone that he was not the answer to the Purple's pass rush problems.
It's for those reasons that I don't think the Vikings need to be too worried about their inability to land a pass rusher in free agency. Nor do I think that they need to be as worried about their pass rush going into next year, because they have two young defensive ends in Brian Robison and Ray Edwards that have shown the ability to get to the quarterback. Robison was a rookie last year, and Edwards was only in his second year, and despite Robison hitting the proverbial rookie wall and Edwards "missing" the last four games of the year, Robison had 4.5 sacks and Edwards had 5, tying them for fourth and first overall. A full offseason of NFL training for Robison and a full season from Edwards should allow both of them to take another step toward becoming an elite pass rusher. And any improvement on the ends will likely lead to an improvement in the middle, as it will take opponents' focus away from the Williams.
The real problem lies with the Vikings' lack of depth behind Robison and Edwards. Darrion Scott is an unrestricted free agent, Keneci Udeze is likely out for the year because of leukemia and Erasmus James is coming off of another injury and has only played 8 games in the last two years. Jayme Mitchell and Otis Grigsby are still on the roster, and while Mitchell is good enough to be a part of the defensive end rotation (Grigsby is roster filler) neither is good enough to be a major part of the rotation.
What this means is that the Vikings have to find quality players to support Robison and Edwards, something that isn't readily available in the free agent market (the complete list is available here). So the Purple likely will look to the draft to provide their young defensive line with more depth. As I've said before, there are quite a few quality ends available, and, with the Berrian signing, the Vikings can focus on their pass rush in the draft, something I'll be doing next week, barring anything crazy happening.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
