Two Reasons the Vikings Will Win

There are obviously more than two reasons why the Purple can win the game on Sunday. But two of the biggest (and I hope that Brad Childress realizes this while game planning) are Visanthe Shaincoe and Chester Taylor. I think they might even be the two most important offensive players on the field on Sunday, because the Eagles have struggled against similar players all year.

Philadelphia's strong against the run (3rd in DVOA) and strong against the pass (3rd in DVOA). Where they're weak, however, is against tight ends (19th in DVOA) and against running backs in the passing game (18th in DVOA). And this is borne out by more than just the advanced statistics. In each of the Eagles' losses, either a running back or tight end was their opponents leading receiver (except for their loss to the Ravens, where they turned the ball over 5 times, although a running back was their second leading receiver).

And it makes sense when you consider the way the Eagles play as well. This is a blitzing defense. When you're sending linebackers and safeties after the quarterback, you're removing the players that would normally be covering the tight ends and running backs. Also, you're forcing the quarterback to make quick decisions, which usually means they're going to throw their pass to a safety valve, which is usually either the tight end or running back.

So what does it mean? It means that Visanthe Shaincoe's emergence (he's currently second among Tight Ends in DYAR and DVOA) could be the single most important thing for the Vikings this Sunday. And it could mean that we see a lot more of Chester Taylor on passing downs (or, you know, if Brad Childress wanted to get creative, he could play BOTH Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor on passing downs, though that's probably just crazy talk). And it means that, even though they're the best team in the NFL, according to DVOA, the Vikings have the weapons to exploit the Eagles defense.

Killing Time: The One, True Purple Jesus

The Purple Jesus

Adrian Peterson rushing yards this season alone would crack the top twenty for career rushing yards by a Viking. If he didn’t get a yard against the Giants, this would be the 38^th most rushing yards in an NFL season and if he gets 117 yards, he’ll crack the top twenty. And if he gets 1 43 yards, he’ll become the 15^th running back in the history of the NFL to rush for 1800 yards in a season. He’s currently 9^th among Vikings in career rushing yards and he has an outside chance of passing Michael Bennett for 8^th all time this season (he needs 177 yards to do so). He only needs two more yards to crack 3000 yards for his career and he’s rushed for more yards in his first two years than nine of the running backs in the top ten in rushing yards (only Eric Dickerson had more yards his first two years than Peterson). This is his second season. Think about that. If there’s a player that has earned the “Purple Jesus” nickname, it’s Adrian Peterson. What he has done just defies my ability to describe.

There are two things, however, that Vikings’ fans should be concerned about when it comes to AD. The first was demonstrated very clearly on Sunday—he’s fumble prone. As the Pro Football Reference blog points out, that’s likely a result of his ability to gain yards no other back can (and goes on to look at what an optimal turnover rate might be). Also, Peterson apparently took my advice and carried a football around all week like Omar Epps did in the Program.

The second issue that Vikings fans should be worried about is his work load. He only needs 28 carries to reach 370 for the year, and as Smarter Stats shows, that’s a work load that almost no running back can handle without breaking down (or having their performance fall off markedly). Peterson has carried the ball more than 28 times in four games this year (IND, GNB, CHI, @ ARI). Giving him the ball 29 times against the Colts and 30 times against the Packers makes sense to me. Both games were decided by a field goal. Giving him the ball 28 times against Chicago, including five times after the Vikings went up 31-14 with eight minutes left, does not. Nor does giving him 28 carries, including 13 in the second half, in the blowout of the Cardinals. And even if he doesn’t get to 370 carries this year, he’ll have still carried the ball a tremendous amount, and absorbed the punishment that comes with running the ball 360 times. It’s something Childress needs to keep in mind against the Giants and next year (if he's still around next year). There is no greater sin that Childress could commit that would be worse than ruining Adrian Peterson’s career by over working him.

T.J. and Tarvaris

Tarvaris Jackson’s one year old son, Tarvaris, Jr. (If you had an awesome first name like Tarvaris, you’d pass your name along too) has been battling health issues all season. This is the first I’ve heard of it, and it makes Tarvaris’s transformation from benched quarterback to clear starter (and there is no doubt in my mind that he should be starting this game over a healthy Gus Frerotte) all the more remarkable. Best wishes to his son, and hopefully he can bring home a division crown for him.

This game is going to be the first time that Tarvaris Jackson faces an elite pass rush (the Giants are 5^th in adjusted sack rate) since returning from the bench. If the Vikings are smart, they’ll try and get the ball to Chester Taylor in the passing game. The Giants’ pass defense has the worst DVOA in the NFL against running backs. The reason I say Taylor and not Peterson is because Taylor’s one of the best receiving running backs in the NFL and Peterson is one of the worst. Taylor’s 11^th in the NFL amongst backs in DYAR and 12^th in DVOA and he’s caught 81% of the 54 passes thrown his way. Peterson is 51^st in DYAR and 50^th in DVOA and he’s only caught 54% of the 39 passes thrown his way. (Adjusted Sack Rate, DYAR and DVOA courtesy of Football Outsiders)

1000 yards

Bernard Berrian needs 117 receiving yards to become the tenth Viking with 1000 receiving yards in a season and the first since Nate Burleson in 2004. It’s probably a long shot though—he’s only had that many receiving yards in a game twice in his career, although both games were this year (against Detroit and against Chicago). He only needs 69 yards to surpass his previous season high of 951 yards, which he set last year. That’s a lot more likely, as he’s had seven games this year where he had at least 69 yards, although all of them came with Frerotte at quarterback.

Purple Pass Catching Tight Ends

After gaining 136 receiving yards against the Falcons, Visanthe Shaincoe cracked the top ten all time for receiving yards by a Vikings’ tight end. The top ten is below (courtesy of Pro Football Reference). Two things stick out—the first is Joe Senser’s remarkable 1981 season. I’ll be honest—while I know of him because of his restaurant, I didn’t know he was that good of a player. It’s too bad that he suffered a career ending knee injury in 1982. Of course, his retirement led to the second most striking part of the list; the dominance and consistency of Senser’s replacement, Steve Jordan. When you have half the spots in the top ten (and 60% of the spots in the top 5) you’re clearly the best player to ever play the position in Purple. And in case you were wondering, the tight end who was 10th before Shaincoe's big game? Steve Jordan.

1. Joe Senser, 1981--1004 yards
2. Steve Jordan, 1986—859 yards
3. Steve Jordan, 1985—795 yards
4. Steve Jordan, 1988—756 yards
5. Jermaine Wiggins, 2004—705 yards
6. Byron Chamberlain, 2001—666 yards
7. Steve Jordan, 1991—638 yards
8. Steve Jordan, 1990—636 yards
9. Visanthe Shaincoe, 2008—582 yards
10. Jermain Wiggins, 2005—568 yards

The Giants Schedule

The Giants have a chance to set a record for Quality Wins (wins over teams with a winning record) in the regular season (and then in the playoffs) if things break their way on Sunday. Do not underestimate the Giants—this is a talented team that has played and beaten some very good teams. Even with some of their starters resting, they have the ability to beat the Vikings.

Go Lions

The only thing that could possibly make me feel better tomorrow if the Vikings lose and da Bears win is if the Packers lose to the Lions. That would be a black mark on their franchise that no other franchise could match—a loss to a 0-15 team, the worst team ever. Schadenfreude is a beautiful thing. It is a beautiful thing.

Playoff Scenarios

Joe Posnanski explains the various playoff scenarios. Yes, I could have found a better, more concise article on this subject to link to, but I’m going to take every opportunity I have to link to the best sports writer in America (and thus possibly spread the joy of reading him). Read him and thank me later.

Another Clincher, Another Let Down

You know, I should be mad. I should be furious at the Vikings inability to hold onto the football. I should be seething that the Purple threw away yet another opportunity to win a game and threw their first chance at clinching the division and any chance at getting a first round bye along with it. But I'm not. I just can't get mad about an outcome I fully expected. And really, as the Star Tribune pointed out on Sunday, the Vikings haven't fulfilled their expectations since the second round game against the Cardinals in 1999 (Also, I'd like to thank the Star Tribune for dredging up that memory for me and in the process messing with the good juju that was surrounding the team. Now go die in fire).

There was a lot to like about this game. The Purple held Atlanta's backs to 3.37 yards per carry, despite the absence of Pat Williams (though you could tell they needed to adjust to life without him during the first drive of the game). Tarvaris Jackson outplayed Matt Ryan, up until he had to run a two minute drill. Brad Childress learned from the Tennessee game and went for it on fourth down in the fourth quarter. Visanthe Shiancoe had the best receiving game by a tight end since Steve Jordan (I'm going to assume that Steve Jordan had a 100 yard receiving game, since he has 6 spots in the top ten for single season receiving yards by a Vikings' tight end, and no one else had one before Pro-Football-Reference ran out of game logs). The Falcons didn't score a touchdown returning a punt (And, now I'm reaching).

But you know what? None of it matters because, at this point in the season, it's all about wins. Nice games by everyone who didn't fumble aren't enough. It is inexcusable for the Vikings to fumble the ball seven times. SEVEN TIMES. Every time I read an article about the game, and it mentions Tarvaris Jackson's three fumbles, my first reaction is "That's not fair--one was Adrian Peterson's fault". Think about that for a second. Yup. Even if you take away a fumble from Tarvaris, he still had TWO FUMBLES. And even with one of his fumbles being credited to Tarvaris, Peterson still had TWO FUMBLES. I'm not saying that Brad Childress should be fired if he doesn't make Tarvaris and Adrian carry around a football with a bounty on it like James Caan made Omar Epps in The Program but, he should be fired if he doesn't make Tarvaris and Adrian carry around a football with a bounty on it like James Caan made Omar Epps in The Program.

And the worst part about the loss? They're the Vikings, and they like to find new and inventive ways to torture their fans, so they've decided to force us to root for the Packers tonight. And I know, it hurts, but does anyone actually trust this team to beat the Giants on Sunday? Even if they aren't playing their starters? I know I don't. So....

GO PACKERS

Now excuse me while I try and convince an angel to show me what my life would be like if I had never heard of the Minnesota Vikings and the National Football League.

The Return of Tarvaris (and the Ragnarok)

Thanks to those who’ve sent me emails—my offline life has been crazy lately, with loads of work, travel for work and lots of other things that have taken up my free time, which, combined with the negativity surrounding the team, lead to no posts. But I’m back now and ready for the stretch run.

Some Quick Thoughts:

• I have to say, I was really excited to see Tarvaris come in and perform the way he did. 8/10 passes completed, 103 yards passing and 1 touchdown, along with a 9.54 yard per attempt average, his best ever, and better than any game Frerotte's had this year. He did have a fumble and his rushes weren’t exactly productive, but he made some throws that I’ve never seen him make. I’m a lot more confident in his ability to lead the Vikings to victory on Sunday than I would have been if I hadn’t seen the second half against the Lions. I might actually have more confidence in his ability to play well than I do in Gus "The Interception Leader" Frerotte. And no, it doesn't hurt that the Cardinals aren't very good against the pass, ranking 19th in DVOA.
  

• The idea of Adrian Peterson winning the rushing title is an exciting one. The fact that he’s no longer on pace to crack 370 carries this year, a number that usually means injuries the next year (he’s currently on pace for 360 carries and if the Vikings can clinch a playoff berth early, and they have an 83.6% chance according to Football Outsiders, he won’t even get that) is even better. I still didn’t like Childress’ decision to give Peterson the ball at the end of da Bears game though (especially because Peterson’s having some fumble issues), when the victory was already wrapped up.

• Visanthe "the Equipment Manager" Shiancoe is currently 3rd in DYAR among tight ends and 2^nd in DVOA. Last year he was 29^th and 28^th respectively. I don’t know what happened (although he’s apparently been putting in a lot of extra work), but Shiancoe was a player that I thought should be benched or cut earlier this year (and his insistence on dropping key passes that cost the Purple wins really supported my arguments). Now? He just might be the best receiver on the team. Who saw that one coming?

The Frustration of 0-2

If someone told you that the Vikings would hold the Colts to 18 points, hold Joseph Addai to 20 rushing yards and pick off Peyton Manning twice, you'd assume the Vikings won, right? Especially if they told you that Adrian Peterson went off for 160 yards on 29 carries. Of course, if they told you that Tarvaris Jackson only completed 50% of his passes while throwing for a paltry 130 yards and no touchdowns and that the Vikings were unable to score a single touchdown despite getting into field goal range six times, well, you'd probably guess, correctly, that the Vikings lost, and that it was painful. Man was it ever painful.

It wasn't even the final drive that Manning engineered that was the painful part. He's Peyton Manning--of course he's going to drive his team into field goal range with three seconds left on the clock. What was painful was the fact that the Vikings blew opportunity after opportunity to make that final drive meaningless. It is utterly inexcusable for a team to attempt six field goals against a team that could not stop the run and turned over the ball two times. The Vikings crossed midfield nine times on Sunday. They were in the red zone twice. And yet, they weren’t able to get into the end zone.

It was clear on Sunday that something was wrong with the offense. And after looking at the game log, it becomes clear—Brad Childress’ play calling is awful, and Tarvaris Jackson has trouble running the plays that Childress calls. Of those nine drives, six of them ended with short pass attempts that were either incomplete or didn’t pick up the first down. The other three ended with a run attempt on 3rd and 5 that didn’t pick up the first down, a sack (on what I assume was meant to be a short pass play) and a field goal as time expired at the half (which, sadly, one can’t blame Childress for).

Of Tarvaris’ 14 completions, 12 were described as “short passes” in the play by play. Of his 14 incomplete passes, 8 were described as “short passes”. It’s no surprise that Tarvaris averaged a pathetic 4.4 yards per pass attempt (more than a yard lower than Adrian Peterson’s 5.5 yards per carry) when you consider that he only threw two deep passes the entire game. Play calling like that is what turns touchdowns into field goals and victories into defeats. And it’s averages like that begs the question as to why the Colts didn’t start the game with Bob Sanders in the box.

Of course, none of that might have mattered if Visanthe Shiancoe could catch. Of course, he can’t, something that everyone except Brad Childress has figured out and something that he once again displayed in a crucial situation, dropping a touchdown pass on third down, forcing the Vikings to kick a field goal, and costing them four points in a game they lost by three.

And now, at 0-2, the Vikings face long odds to make the playoffs. According to the Pro Football Prospectus, of all the teams to start 0-2 in a 17 week season, only 11.4% have made the playoffs. In the last five years, however, there have been three teams to make the turn around from 0-2 to the playoffs—the 2003 Eagles, the 2006 Chiefs and the 2007 Giants. Of those teams, only the Eagles won their division (though the Giants, obviously, won the Super Bowl). So while making the playoffs from after an 0-2 start is a tough task, it’s not impossible. As the saying goes, it ain’t over, till it’s over.

Three Stars: Yup, I'm Still Doing It

After I took an unplanned week off (sometimes, work just takes over), the Vikings responded by losing a game against a very beatable team, which most likely ended any realistic hope of their finishing .500, let alone making the playoffs. Just like after the last seven games, however, it's important for us to congratulate those players who turned in quality performances for the Purple. And, even in the loss, there were quite a few.

• Brooks Bollinger, the Vikings third string quarterback turned in a quality performance in relief of Kelly Holcombe, after Holcombe got to find out what Deacon Jones Helmet Slap felt like prior to having his head driven into the turf. When Bollinger came out throwing, I was openly questioning Brad Childress' play calling. When Bollinger completed his first three throws for thirty yards, I was less skeptical. Bollinger never got the Vikings in the endzone, and he was sacked twice, but he also completed seven of ten passes for 96 yards and rushed for 15 yards on two carries. They weren't amazing stats, but they were pretty solid.

• The Purple Jesus doesn't make the three stars this week, for the first time this season. It might be a matter of expectations being too high for him, but Adrian Peterson was good, but not great, rushing for 70 yards on 20 carries. He also made an awful mistake on the opening kick of the second half that practically guaranteed the Vikings would not be able to do anything with the drive. That being said, he still turned in some plays that defy description--I have never, and I mean never, seen a running back HURDLE the line and then hit the ground running.

• Both Keneci Udeze and Ben Leber both turned in crucial sacks in the second half, sacks that helped force the Eagles two punts before they started running to kill time. The only other time the Eagles punted also included pressure on McNabb. That's not a coincidence folks.

3rd Star: Ryan Longwell

Yeah, he's the kicker. He was also responsible for 62.5% of the Vikings points. Without him, the Vikings don't keep within striking distance of the Eagles. And while two of his kicks were only a little more than 30 yarders, his final field goal was a 48 yarder, which isn't a chip shot in anyway. And, if the Vikings are going to make him such an important part of their offense, then I'm going to reward him with a spot in the three stars.

2nd Star: Visanthe Shiancoe

Shiancoe set a career high for receptions today, catching five passes for fifty yards (his second highest total), including two big first downs. He also hauled in the Vikings only touchdown pass, which ties him for second on the team in touchdowns (lets not talk about the fact that Adrian Peterson is the only Viking with more than one touchdown). Today was the day that the Shiancoe showed off the receiving skills that led to the Vikings signing him for 5 years and $18.2 million. If he can continue to have this kind of an impact on games, he'll be a bargain.

1st Star: E.J. Henderson

E.J. Henderson is one of the best middle linebackers in the NFL. He's also one of the hardest hitters. His performance today was just another example of why those first two statements are correct. He racked up ten tackles, second only to Antoine Winfield's eleven, and was a huge reason why the Eagles were held to only 62 rushing yards on 25 carries. Bryant Westbrook rushed for a paltry 46 yards on 21 carries. Prior to this week, Westbrook had the 8th best success rate amongst NFL running backs and the 4th best DVOA. Both of those stats deal with how good a back is on a per carry basis. Westbrook is going to see his stats drop after this week and E.J. Henderson is the biggest reason why.