No Logo Needed Mock Draft--3rd Pick

The No Logo Draft marches on. With Stafford and Eugene Monroe off the board, the Chiefs are up. They've had a very productive off season, adding new management, a new coach and a new quarterback, but aside from Cassel, the player the Chiefs choose is going to be the center piece of their rebuilding effort. Making the pick on behalf of the Chiefs is The KC Chiefs News.

With the third pick of the 2009 NFL draft, the Kansas City Chiefs select:

Aaron Curry, OLB, Wake Forest

Having addressed their quarterback need in the Matt Cassel trade, look for the Chiefs to address the other side of the ball with the third overall pick. Todd Haley could be tempted to draft a wide receiver (Crabtree) given his coaching history but Linebacker remains their most pressing need on defense, besides defensive end. This being a weak draft for defensive end, linebacker Aaron Curry is the most logical pick for the chiefs.

The chiefs have declined to re-sign starting linebackers Rocky Boiman and Pat Thomas and have released veteran Donnie Edwards making them somewhat thin at the position. They have traded for Mike Vrabel, which would obviously be a great mentor for the young Curry.

The Wake Forest product is an absolute must if the Chiefs plan to move to a 3-4 defense, Curry on one side and Derrick Johnson on the other would provide the necessary pass rushing personnel for a team that set the record for the least amount of sacks in a season.

No Logo Needed Mock Draft (1st and 2nd Pick)

Due to the insane amount of knowledge that I know about the Vikings, and my amazing draft skillz (yes, that "z" was on purpose, and yes, it was appropriate), the folks at No Logo Needed (an amazing Cleveland Browns blog, for those of you who picked the AFC version of the Vikings as their second favorite team) asked me to participate in a mock draft. Now, I'll be doing my normal previews of the various prospects that the Vikings' might draft, but I couldn't pass up an opportunity to show that I'm smarter than Brad Childress and make the 22nd selection for the Vikings.

Now, due to a really busy day at work (and really, my week is swamped, so having some free content is nice), I wasn't able to post the first selection in the draft yesterday. The picks are going once every 24 hours (but sometimes sooner than that, because all of the folks participating are better at this than Mike Tice), so I'll be posting them as soon as I get them (with some analysis every couple of picks or so). And these guys are good--I mean, you know you care a lot (and therefore likely know a lot) if you're writing about the Lions, or Rams, or any of those other teams that just aren't as good as the Purple (zing!). So, without further ado, the mock draft.

With the first pick of the 2009 NFL draft, on behalf of the Detroit Lions, the Wayne Fontes Experience, a great blog to check out if you want to learn more about our NFC North "competitor", selects:

Matthew Stafford, QB, University of Georgia

Why Stafford? The Lions current quarterback depth chart reads as follows:

1. Daunte Culpepper (Hasn't had a good season in 5 years, played at a weight close to 3 bills in '08)
2. Drew Stanton (Not good enough to outplay Dan "Ran out of the end zone" Orlovsky for the number 2 in '08, is on the cusp of "BUST" status)
3. Drew Henson (Seriously?)

That's why the Lions pick Stafford.

They have needs all over the field, on both sides of the ball. I was tempted to make a "safe" pick, such as an OT like Baylor's Jason Smith or Virginia's Eugene Monroe, or Wake Forest LB Aaron Curry. All project to be first line players, long-time starters. But the need for a quality QB, something the Lions haven't had since the glory days of Bobby Layne, is just too glaring. Stafford is the highest rated quarterback in the draft, and has the skill set to become an impact player.

The fact the Lions have drafted outright 1st round disasters at quarterback like Joey Harrington, Andre Ware and Chuck Long over the past 20 years, and Matt Millen went on a drunken skill player binge during his tenure (only Calvin Johnson remains in Detroit), cannot deter GM Martin Mayhew and head coach Jim Schwartz from addressing their greatest need, that being a franchise player under center.

Plus, the Lions do have the 20th pick of the 1st round, and the 1st pick of the 2nd, so other needs can be easily addressed later in the draft.

With the second pick of the 2009 NFL No Logo Needed Draft, the St. Louis Rams select:

Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia

According to DraftCountdown.com:

It's common knowledge that the Rams have been aching to address their offensive line for a while now and unlike last year, when Jake Long was selected one pick ahead of them, they should have no trouble landing a top blocker in the 2009 NFL Draft.

Orlando Pace has been one of the best in the business for more than a decade but he is now in his mid-30's and injuries have really begun to take their toll. On the other side, former first round pick Alex Barron continues to disappoint and the Rams would like nothing more than to bring in a capable replacement.

Eugene Monroe might not be as flashy as some of the other top offensive tackles in this draft but he has a very good chance to be the first blocker off the board. Not only is Monroe a terrific all-around player who can be effective as both a pass and run blocker but he is also a much safer choice than a guy like Andre Smith because there are no concerns about his size, position or character. Monroe may not have as much upside as Andre Smith or Jason Smith but his floor is a lot higher and that's a good thing when you're talking about giving a guy $30 million in guaranteed money.

Don't discount the value of program pedigree either and Monroe is following in the footsteps of former Cavaliers D'Brickashaw Ferguson and Branden Albert, who have both handled the transition to the next level well.

The Sullivan Era Begins (Hopefully)

Matt Birk has signed with the Ravens, which means that next year the Vikings line will be led by second year center John Sullivan. I don't know enough about offensive line play to know how big an effect this will have on the Vikings' line, but everyone seems to agree that Birk played quite well last year. Mike Lombardi thinks it's going to be a big deal for the Purple, but the real question is not whether Birk was let go a year (or two) too early (and it's better to let someone go a year too early than a year too late), but whether John Sullivan can play as well as Birk did.

And yes, he's young, but what people are forgetting is that Birk was once unproven too. He became the Vikings starting center in his third year, replacing Pro Bowler Jeff Christy, who had signed with the Buccaneers. And everyone was worried about the young, unproven Birk taking over for the experienced Christy. Of course, everyone had forgotten that Christy had been unproven when he became the Vikings' starting center in his second season.

And let's not forget--the Vikings' line wasn't that great last year. According to Football Outsiders, they were only 15th in adjusted line yards and 28th in Adjusted Sack Rate. And while Birk played well last year, the Vikings still had trouble running the ball up the middle, finishing 19th in rushing yards on runs between the guards.

So if the Vikings' think Sullivan can step in for Birk and play as well as he did last year, that's good enough reason for me not to be too worried. As Kevin Seifert points out, if they'd wanted to extend him, they would have done so earlier. I'd feel a little better if they had found a better right tackle in free agency (which at this point likely will have to happen through the draft, though there are some short term solutions available) so that Ryan Cook could back up both center and right tackle, rather than start, but that hasn't happened yet. Either way, the Purple were going to have to replace Birk at some point, which is why they drafted Sullivan last year.

More on Birk's signing:

• Pacifist Viking, Daily Norseman and Grant's Tomb on Birk's signing

• John Sullivan speaks with Access Vikings

• Joe Flacco is excited to play with his new center

• Randball chronicles the timeline of Birk's free agency
  

Killing Time: No Cutler, No Nobody

The Broncos are insisting that Jay Cutler is not available for trade. Not really all that surprising (Let's be honest--there isn't a person in a front office position in any sport willing to take the risk of trading a 25 year old Pro Bowler under contract for three more years), but still disappointing. I guess it was a nice dream while it lasted.

And now that the dream has withered in the sun, the Vikings no longer have a chance to make a significant upgrade to their team via free agency. While they were busy pursuing Housh and Cutler (and resigning Jim Kleinsasser), almost every player they could have pursued signed somewhere else without even visiting Winter Park. And, if they're not careful, they might lose Matt Birk as well (though whether its a good idea to re-sign the 32 year old center is a whole other issue).

I liked that the Vikings' made a play for Housh and that they tried to trade for Cutler. And the Rosenfels trade does upgrade the quarterback position, even if it only brings it up to "slightly-below average". But the Vikings need to upgrade the right side of their offensive line, they need more depth at cornerback and defensive tackle and they need someone to return punts and possibly kicks (if they don't trust Darius Reynaud to stay healthy). And they haven't even hosted a single player that might address those needs.

It was obvious that the Vikings wouldn't be able to address all of their needs via free agency. But it was also obvious that they wouldn't be able to do so via the draft also (they just have too many needs). And at this point, it looks like the draft is the only option they have left, which means that, one year after a hugely successful foray into free agency, the Vikings failed to make any real improvements during free agency because they didn't try hard enough.

Dreaming Of Cutler

It's clear the Vikings are pushing hard for Jay Cutler. That's the good news. The bad news? He's not going to be easy, or cheap, to get. Is he worth it?

In a word, yes.

Cutler's a 25 year old quarterback that is coming off a year in which he made the Pro Bowl and was one of the best quarterbacks in the league. He would be an instant passing game. Last year, he threw 25 touchdowns and completed 62.3% of 616 pass attempts for 4,526 yards. He averaged 7.1 yards per attempt while only getting sacked 11 times. He was 5th in DYAR and 8th in DVOA last year and 8th and 11th in 2007, his first year of starting. He was really, really good.

Of course, like all players, he has his detractors. The two arguments you hear against Cutler are that he throws a lot of interceptions and that he has yet to lead his team to a winning record, let alone the playoffs. Both of those can be partially explained by the fact that the Broncos were awful defensively the past two years. In 2008, they gave up the third most points in the NFL, allowing their opponents to score 28 a game, which was even worse than their performance in the NFL, when they gave up 25.6 points per game, the fifth worst in the NFL. As we learned the past few years, a team's record is not a very good way to measure a quarterback's performance. Gus Frerotte had a winning record last year, and Tarvaris Jackson had a winning record the year before. When Daunte Culpepper was putting up historic numbers for the 2003 and 2004 Vikings, it wasn't enough to win 10 games because the defense was so awful.

And when your defense is gives up a lot of points, it means your quarterback has to throw the ball a lot against a defense that knows its coming. And when the defense knows you're going to do something, it makes it a lot easier for them to stop. So while Cutler threw 18 interceptions last year, and 14 the year before, its not that surprising considering how often he was passing and how often he was passing against a defense expecting the pass. And even though he threw 18 interceptions, he only threw them on 3.0% of his passes, a number that's more than respectable. To put that in context, Gus Frerotte threw interceptions on 5.0% of his passes last year, Sage Rosenfels threw picks on 5.0% of his passes and Brett Favre threw interceptions on 4.2% of his passes.

So, no matter what people may say, Cutler is good. Really good. And he's signed through the 2011 season. Which means that most likely, the Vikings are going to have to give up a lot in draft picks and likely more than the first and two third rounders they gave up for Jared Allen, whose price tag was lowered by his lack of a long term deal. I'm talking something like two first rounders, with maybe a late rounder or two thrown ni. But would that be worth it?

I think so. Remember--he's young. He's only three years into his career, which means he'll be here a long time, especially if the Vikings sign him to an extension. He'd be worth the 22nd round pick easily. And with him, the Vikings would likely be drafting in the 20s again next year. Draft picks are for acquiring young players and first round draft picks are for acquiring young impact players. And Cutler is a young impact player and is likely going to be better than any player the Vikings would take in the first round the next two years. The Purple have had six draft picks in the second half of the first round in the past 10 years. With those picks, they've drafted the following players:

Year	Player	Draft Position	Position
2006	Chad Greenway	17th	LB
2005	Erasmus James	18th	DE
2004	Kenechi Udeze	20th	DE
2001	Michael Bennett	27th	RB
2000	Chris Hovan	25th	DT
1999	Dimitrius Underwood	29th	DE

Would you trade two of those players for Jay Cutler? I know I would. The only player on that list that's even approached Pro Bowl caliber at any point is Chad Greenway and possibly Chris Hovan. And neither of them play a position as important as quarterback.

I know that this is probably a pipe dream. But it's a fun pipe dream and one I'm glad the Vikings are pursuing. And while the Broncos might not be willing to part with Cutler for anything less than a quarterback (which the Vikings don't have) or a Herschel Walker type deal, if they're willing to give him up for less, then the Vikings need to be willing to give that up for a quarterback that's actually good enough to win the Super Bowl. And make no mistake about it--if you add Jay Cutler to this Vikings' team, they are not only good enough to win the Super Bowl, they're good enough to be the favorite.

Housh signs with Seahawks, Nate Washington signs with Titans

Well this sucks. Two of the best wide receivers available signed with teams that aren't the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings' first choice was obviously T.J. Houshmandzadeh , but he's apparently signing with the Seahawks (and just when I memorized how to spell his name). And while the Vikings were focused on Housh, a receiver that may have been the Vikings' back up plan, Nate Washington, signed with Tennessee.

After their success last year with free agents, I guess the Vikings inability to sign a single free agent makes sense in some kind of regression to the mean kind of way. It doesn't mean it sucks any less, however. With most of the quality free agents gone, the Vikings have yet to upgrade at any position, except for quarterback (and that was mainly an upgrade because of how bad the Vikings quarterbacks were last year). They still need to improve their offensive line, specifically right tackle, bring in a real quarterback (by prying Kurt Warner or Jay Cutler away from their current teams), find someone to return punts and kicks and improve their cornerback depth. And they could still use more talent at wide receiver as well (hence the whole "trying to sign T.J. Houshmandzadeh" thing). That's a lot of positions to improve during the course of one draft, but it's looking more and more like that will be the only way for the Purple to do so (Come on miracle trade for Jay Cutler... Come on miracle trade for Jay Cutler...)

Killing Time: Waiting For Godotmandzadeh

T.J.'s left town now, which certainly doesn't bode well for the Vikings' chances at signing. Of course, if he's on the way to L.A., it might mean he's planning on signing with the Purple in a few years (sorry, cheap joke). As I wrote on Friday, I think Housh would be a great addition to the Vikings if they can sign him to a contract that doesn't kill their cap when his age catches up to him in a few years. He's big, he has great hands and he catches almost everything thrown his way. He's the perfect complement for Bernard Berrian in the same way that Chris Carter was the perfect complement for Randy Moss. And if there's one thing we should have learned in the past few years, its that while good wide receivers can't make a bad quarterback great, they can make him better. And if you have a bad quarterback throwing to bad receivers (like the Vikings did in 2006), you're really not going to enjoy the passing game.

Letting Housh leave town isn't the only bad thing that's happened to the Purple since free agency started. Pretty much everyone of their other targets have already signed with other teams or don't seem interested. Center/Guard Jason Brown has signed with the Rams, Laveranues Coles hasn't left the East Coast, and Mark Clayton re-upped with Tampa Bay. Matt Cassel was traded to the Chiefs (sketchy, sketchy, sketchy) and Matt Birk is planning on visiting a few other teams.

Of course, when a door closes, a window opens, and for the Vikings those windows are named Kurt Warner and Jay Cutler. Warner's planned a visit with Niners, which means that the Vikings need to do everything in his power to get Warner to Winter Park. And while they're busy trying to woo him, they need to see if they can talk Josh McDaniels into making the worst decision of his career and trading them Jay Cutler (Yes, he'd be worth 3 draft picks. Heck, he might even be worth four).