Housh signs with Seahawks, Nate Washington signs with Titans

Well this sucks. Two of the best wide receivers available signed with teams that aren't the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings' first choice was obviously T.J. Houshmandzadeh , but he's apparently signing with the Seahawks (and just when I memorized how to spell his name). And while the Vikings were focused on Housh, a receiver that may have been the Vikings' back up plan, Nate Washington, signed with Tennessee.

After their success last year with free agents, I guess the Vikings inability to sign a single free agent makes sense in some kind of regression to the mean kind of way. It doesn't mean it sucks any less, however. With most of the quality free agents gone, the Vikings have yet to upgrade at any position, except for quarterback (and that was mainly an upgrade because of how bad the Vikings quarterbacks were last year). They still need to improve their offensive line, specifically right tackle, bring in a real quarterback (by prying Kurt Warner or Jay Cutler away from their current teams), find someone to return punts and kicks and improve their cornerback depth. And they could still use more talent at wide receiver as well (hence the whole "trying to sign T.J. Houshmandzadeh" thing). That's a lot of positions to improve during the course of one draft, but it's looking more and more like that will be the only way for the Purple to do so (Come on miracle trade for Jay Cutler... Come on miracle trade for Jay Cutler...)

Killing Time: Waiting For Godotmandzadeh

T.J.'s left town now, which certainly doesn't bode well for the Vikings' chances at signing. Of course, if he's on the way to L.A., it might mean he's planning on signing with the Purple in a few years (sorry, cheap joke). As I wrote on Friday, I think Housh would be a great addition to the Vikings if they can sign him to a contract that doesn't kill their cap when his age catches up to him in a few years. He's big, he has great hands and he catches almost everything thrown his way. He's the perfect complement for Bernard Berrian in the same way that Chris Carter was the perfect complement for Randy Moss. And if there's one thing we should have learned in the past few years, its that while good wide receivers can't make a bad quarterback great, they can make him better. And if you have a bad quarterback throwing to bad receivers (like the Vikings did in 2006), you're really not going to enjoy the passing game.

Letting Housh leave town isn't the only bad thing that's happened to the Purple since free agency started. Pretty much everyone of their other targets have already signed with other teams or don't seem interested. Center/Guard Jason Brown has signed with the Rams, Laveranues Coles hasn't left the East Coast, and Mark Clayton re-upped with Tampa Bay. Matt Cassel was traded to the Chiefs (sketchy, sketchy, sketchy) and Matt Birk is planning on visiting a few other teams.

Of course, when a door closes, a window opens, and for the Vikings those windows are named Kurt Warner and Jay Cutler. Warner's planned a visit with Niners, which means that the Vikings need to do everything in his power to get Warner to Winter Park. And while they're busy trying to woo him, they need to see if they can talk Josh McDaniels into making the worst decision of his career and trading them Jay Cutler (Yes, he'd be worth 3 draft picks. Heck, he might even be worth four).

Killing Time: Quarterbacks, Free Agent WRs and Money Issues

I'm working on a bigger post for Jeff Garcia (who seems to be Vikings' fans other favorite choice to start at quarterback next year) similar to the one I wrote on Matt Cassel. For whatever reason, I'm not really all that excited about Garcia, despite the fact that he seems to still have it after playing well last year. More on that soon.

In other news:

• Brett Favre is trying to trick the Jets into releasing him by retiring and then coming back and wrecking their cap number and plans for the season. Remember folks, no one loves the game more than Favre, unless, of course, he's asked to put in work in the offseason (or run an offense the way his coach wants him too).

• Jason Winter (spelled his name right this time!) makes a case for acquiring Byron Leftwich to be the Vikings' starting quarterback next year. I don't think he's the answer though. He's too immobile (while his sack rate is only 5.4% for his career, it's been 7.7% and 9.4% the past two years in limited action), which really doesn't work well with a line that's bad at pass blocking (the Vikings were 28th in Adjusted Sack Rate) and a slow throwing motion (he had 6 fumbles in three games with Atlanta). He's also inaccurate (he only has one year where he completed 60% of his passes, and his career mark is only 58.6%), which Jason mentions in the comments.

• Michael Lombardi breaks down the wide receiver free agent class. If he's right about the quality of this class (or lack there of), the Vikings better hope that Sidney Rice makes the leap he was supposed to make last year. And they're also going to have to look elsewhere to find a decent punt returner.

• The Vikings are offering a lawaway plan for tickets. Pretty crazy, but if it keeps me from having to read stories about possible black outs every week, that's great.

• Kevin Seifert breaks down the cap situation for each of the four NFC North teams. It looks like there's going to be a lot of new additions in the division this year, because every team has a ton of cap room. Which is just another reason why the Vikings have to remain aggressive this offseason and continue to improve their roster.
  

Allison v. Ferguson v. Johnson

As I noted on Friday, the folks at FanHouse had a post about the battle between Aundrae Allison and Robert Ferguson for the fourth wide receiver spot. I don't think the post goes far enough, however, as it should include Jaymar Johnson, who'll be competing with both players for the fifth reciever spot. The decision that Brad Childress makes about those final two spots will tell us a lot about him and his ability to maximize his roster. If he keeps Ferguson, it means that he cares more about run blocking and experience than receiving talent and it means that Allison will be relegated to the fifth spot, bumping Jaymar Johnson to the practice squad (if he clears waivers) and forcing the Vikings to use someone with no experience (college or pro) as their punt returner.

And that right there is reason enough to hope for the Vikings to cut Ferguson. While he's a very good run blocker, he showed last year that he just doesn't have what it takes to contribute as a receiver. His speed is gone, his hands remain suspect (he's only had one season with a catch percentage over 50% since 2003) and at 28 years old, he's not going to improve all that much.

Unlike Ferguson, both Allison and Johnson have potential to be quality contributors for the Vikings. As I've said before (and I'll say again in the next paragraph), Allison should be returning kickoffs. I've also said that Jaymar Johnson should be given every opportunity to return punts next year. If he doesn't make the team, it will mean that the Vikings will have to choose between using Bobby Wade (their best receiver statistically last year) or someone without any experience as their punt returner. I'd much rather have a talented rookie returning punts than someone without any experience at it whatsoever, which adds one more reason to cut Ferguson in replace of Johnson (assuming he has a decent training camp).

No matter what happens in the battle for final two receiver spots, I think Aundrae Allison should be returning kickoffs for the Vikings next year. Honestly, he's the obvious choice--he's returned 20 kickoffs for 574 yards, an average of 28.7 yards per return. He also returned 11 kickoffs for more than 20 yards, three for more than 40 yards and one for 104 yards and a touchdown. He did have one fumble, but the rewards more than outweigh the risks, especially when you consider that Maurice Hicks, who is an average returner at best, would be his replacement. Hicks' had a career high last year, with four kick returns over 40 yards, but it took him 63 returns to do so. His career high is 25.1 yards per return in 2006, and while he's never had issues with fumbling (he's only fumbled four times in 185 returns), he's never returned a kickoff further than 64 yards. The Vikings are team that needs offensive playmakers and they can't afford to use a solid returner when they have a returner that's a threat to score.

Childress has repeatedly said that he places an emphasis on special teams. We won't know whether that overrides his (and every coaches') desire for veterans until the end of training camp when he decides between Allison, Ferguson and Johnson for the final two receiver spots. I'd take Allison and Johnson and their upside and special teams skills over Ferguson's blocking and veteran saavy. I hope Childress will too.

Solving Our Problems: Devin Thomas

[With Free Agency all but over, it's time to take a look at who the Vikings might select in the first round with the #17 pick. Today, we're previewing Chris Williams, an offensive tackle from Vanderbilt. Previously, I previewed Derrick Harvey, a defensive end from Florida, Chris Williams, an offensive tackle from Vanderbilt, Malcolm Kelly, a wide receiver from Oklahoma, Phillip Merling, a defensive end from Clemson, Ryan Clady, an offensive tackle from Boise St, Jeff Otah, an offensive tackle from Pitt and Limas Sweed, a wide receiver from Texas.]

Devin Thomas is one of the more interesting prospects available in this year's draft. He's a 6'2, 215 pound wide receiver and kick returner from Michigan State whom no one outside of East Lansing had heard of prior to this season. That's not all surprising, considering that he only had 6 catches for 90 yards in his first season with the Spartans. When Michigan State fired John L. Smith and replaced him with Mark Dantanio for Thomas' junior season though, something clicked for the receiver.

One year wonders are not a good bet in the NFL draft (and neither are first round wide receivers). That being said, its still hard not to give Thomas a long look because of his senior season. It was that good. Thomas set a school record with 79 receptions, seven 100 yard receiving games and 2590 all purpose yards (2nd all time in the Big Ten), set a Big Ten record with 1135 return yards, and had 8 touchdowns and 1260 yards receiving. He also carried the ball 27 times for 177 yards. It wasn't a good year, it was a great one. And Thomas seems to have the skills needed for the NFL. He ran the sixth fastest forty by a receiver at the Combine (4.40 seconds) and uses that speed on the field, as demonstrated by his 21 catches for more than 20 yards and his two runs for more than 20 yards. Thomas has good hands as well, and isn't afraid to go over the middle or take a hit to make the catch. And he is a legitimate returner who knows how to read his blocks and follow the wedge, skills that he also uses to gain yards after the catch.

Like you'd expect from a one year wonder, Thomas is raw. While he gets into and out of his breaks quickly, he doesn't run his routes that well, and doesn't have the precision that is needed in the NFL. He also has a tendency to try and do too much with the ball by dancing rather than heading up field. His blocking is good, but not great, and he has trouble blocking safeties and linebackers that are his size or bigger.

While he's raw, the questions about Thomas mainly focus on his lack of production in college. He was so good his junior year that one has to wonder why he didn't do anything his sophomore year. A change in coaches and offense helps to explain it, but it doesn't explain it all. Was it because he had trouble adjusting to Big Ten talent after playing a year of JuCo football? Was it an attitude problem? He got into ten games as a sophomore, but he didn't make an impact at all, and that's very troubling. Before drafting him, a team has to figure out what changed for Thomas between his sophomore and junior year and whether its effects will last only one year as well as all the other questions that have to be figured out before drafting a player. It's not a good thing to have to worry about, especially for the Vikings, who have enough needs in other places that they can try and pick up a player with similar upside at a different position.

Solving Our Problems: Limas Sweed

Limas Sweed is widely considered one of the top wide receivers available in the draft, along with Malcolm Kelly, DeSean Jackson and Devin Thomas. And its no surprise why, either, as he stands 6'4" and weighs 212 pounds. He has the prototypical body for a wide receiver, has the speed you want (he ran a 4.48 forty at the Combine) and produced big numbers the three years he was healthy.

In his first three years at Texas, Sweed caught 105 passes for 1609 yards and 17 touchdowns. His first touchdown at Texas was a catch to beat Ohio State the year that Texas won the National Title, and he considered to show a knack for making the big play, until his senior year was cut short after only 6 games due to a wrist injury that he had all season. His numbers were clearly effected, as he only caught 19 passes for 306 yards and 3 touchdowns.

After undergoing surgery to fix his wrist, Sweed seems to be back to 100%. He showed that he still has the speed, acceleration and strength that served him so well at Texas during workouts at the Combine and the Texas Pro Day. Sweed isn't just a physical specimen though. He has soft hands and combines them with his strength to hang onto passes despite having defenders draped all over him. He isn't afraid to go across the middle, and can easily over power corners that try to jam him. If the corner plays back, he uses his speed to eat up the cushion and blow right by. He also can change direction quickly, and is particularly adept at running the comeback route, a skill that would serve him well with the Vikings.

Aside from the comebacker, Sweed isn't known for his route running. He has a tendency to get caught up in hand battles with corners down field instead of running his route and also cuts his routes short at times. He isn't smooth going into or coming out of his breaks because he doesn't drop his hips as low as he needs to. Sweed also has some problems when jammed because he sometimes seems to forget his goal is to get past it, rather than overpower the corner. His ability to stay focused on the task at hand (running his route, getting off the line) isn't what you would want it to be and also manifests itself in dropped passes, as he'll try to start running before securing the ball.

At 24 years old, Sweed's ability to concentrate and his route running might still improve. He has a great work ethic and was considered a leader by the Longhorns. That being said, I'm not sure he's worth the risk. Problems with on field concentration are particularly worrisome, in my opinion, especially for receivers, who have the highest first round bust rate of any position. He has all the other skills, but so did a lot of receivers chosen in the first round who never panned out.

Solving Our Problems: Malcom Kelly

[With Free Agency all but over, it's time to take a look at who the Vikings might select in the first round with the #17 pick. Today, we're previewing Chris Williams, an offensive tackle from Vanderbilt. Previously, I previewed Derrick Harvey, a defensive end from Florida and Chris Williams, an offensive tackle from Vanderbilt]

By signing Bernard Berrian, the Vikings seemed to have solved their problems at wide receiver, allowing them to focus on other positions with their first round pick. With the #17 pick, however, the Purple need to be willing to take the best player available. Focusing on need, rather than talent, leads to draft picks like Troy Williamson. Focusing on talent rather than need, leads to draft picks like Adrian Peterson. Enough said there.

Because of that, the Vikings need to be willing to draft a receiver in the first round if that receiver is the best player available. And there is a good possibility that Malcolm Kelly, a wide receiver out of Oklahoma, will be the best player available to the Vikings, something they seem to understand, as he is scheduled to visit Winter Park on April 10th. Kelly is a 6'3, 224 pound junior, with good speed, great hands and the ability be a big time play maker in the mold of Larry Fitzgerald.

Kelly had good but not great stats at Oklahoma, never breaking the 1000 yard mark, but averaging 55 catches for over 900 yards and more than 9 touchdowns his final two years. What was impressive was how he wrote his name all over the Oklahoma record books. He is the school's fifth-leading receiver with 144 catches, is second all time for receiving yardage (2,285), touchdown catches (21) and games with at least 100 yards receiving (nine). His 21 scoring receptions also rank tied for seventh in Big Twelve Conference history. His stats were impressive for their context, that of an offense that focused on the run (more than understandable, considering they had Adrian Peterson for the first two years he was there, and a freshman quarterback his final year.). Of course, that meant he learned how to block, something he is pretty good at. Kelly also showed why his hands are considered the best in the draft class, as he dropped only one pass in two years. In doing so, he also demonstrated superb body control by being able to adjust to almost any throw.

While he's not a speed demon, Kelly has more than enough speed to be a deep threat. His forty time is around 4.5 seconds, and he was used as the Sooners primary deep threat. So while he has the size and strength to fight off a jam at the line, the ability to go over the middle, and the soft hands you'd want in a possession receiver, he's not limited by his speed in the way Dwayne Jarret or Keyshawn Johnson were. He's also considered a superb route runner, who, despite have long strides, is able to get low into his breaks (rare for taller receivers) and explode out of them. And once gets the ball in the open field, he's going to be able to break a lot of tackles due to his size and strength.

Kelly appears to be the complete package, but there are some question marks. He 1asn't been able to work out at the combine because of a thigh injury, and he has had problems with minor injuries, causing him to miss the majority of three separate games his last two years. Kelly also had a tendency to go long stretches without impacting the game. Whether that was due to his own lack of focus or the Sooners focus on the run is up in the air.

With only a few minor question marks, and lots of talent and potential, Malcolm Kelly is the best receiver in the draft. If he is available to the Vikings with the 17th pick, and their top choice at defensive end and offensive tackle are gone, they should strongly consider drafting him, no matter what Brad Childress thinks about drafting receivers in the first round.

Also, Malcom Kelly can rap. And yes, this video does move him to the top of my draft board.

Weekend Roundup: BERNARD BERRIAN!!!

In one of the better sports weekends in my recent memory, the Hoyas came away with an amazing come from behind win at #21 Marquette, the Vikings filled some of the holes in their roster, including the signing of a legitimate wide receiver who is an actual deep threat, something the Purple haven't had since they traded Randy Moss away after the 2004 season.

The signing of Berrian is huge. And when I say huge, I mean "create a 'hope' tag for the first time" huge. He was, quite simply, the best receiver available to the Vikings on the free agent market. When I wrote about him earlier, I didn't expect him to make it away from Chicago, because I expected da Bears to either sign him or use the franchise tag on him. They didn't do either, and because of Zygi Wilf's willingness to spend money to make his team better (this is the second time since he took over in 2005 that the Vikings have made a splash in free agency), the Vikings have added the biggest piece missing from their offense (assuming that the Purple are planning on continuing the Tarvaris Revolution).

And while Berrian has never had 1000 yards receiving, or 100 receptions, what he has done is produce despite having mediocre to bad quarterbacks throwing him the ball. No matter what your opinion of Tarvaris is, he's not that much worse than Kyle Orton, Rex Grossman and Brian Griese, especially when you consider that da Bears played in conditions that weren't favorable to passing.

Of course, some seem to think that the Vikings overpaid for Berrian. His contract for six years included $16 million in guaranteed money and was worth $42 million overall, which makes him the fourth highest paid receiver in the NFL. Is he the 4th best receiver in the NFL? Probably not. That's a flawed metric to use in order to determine if the Vikings overpaid, however, because the market for free agents this year is different than last year's, or the year before that, or the year before that. The question one needs to ask to determine if the Vikings overpaid is to determine whether they could have used the money to acquire a better player and if Berrian's value to the Vikings is worth the cap space he takes up. I think he was the best receiver available and that he will be more than worth the money to the Vikings and to Adrian Peterson, who will only have to run into eight and nine man fronts, instead of the nine and ten man fronts he saw last year.

First off, Berrian greatly upgrades the Vikings' weakest position, something that the Purple absolutely had to do this off season. Secondly, the Vikings had the cap room to spend, something they are likely to continue to have, considering the ability they have shown at managing their cap (for example, Chester Taylor, Steve Hutchinson and the rest of the Vikings' big signings in 2005 didn't effect their ability to pursue free agents last year or to sign free agents this year). Finally, when one considers that Donte' Stallworth, a receiver who was an inferior version of Berrian, signed a contract for seven years, with $10 million of it's $35 million total guaranteed, Berrian's contract looks a lot better. One of the keys to free agency is to spend your money on the best talent. Where a team can get itself in trouble is when it starts shelling out money to mid range talent. And Berrian was clearly the best talent available at wide receiver. And now he's a Viking.

As I said earlier in the post, it was a good weekend.

[Up next--Who's left the Purple, Who's rushing the quarterback, and Maurice Hicks & Jabar Gaffney]

Solving our Problems: Donte Stallworth

[Solving Our Problems is an ongoing series here at the Ragnarok where I evaluate the Vikings' options going into the offseason. I started by looking at the quarterback options, examining Derek Anderson, Donovan McNabb and possible backups for Tarvaris Jackson. Now it's time to figure out who the QB is going to throw to, starting with free agent Bernard Berrian and now Donte Stallworth.]

One of the best things that Donte Stallworth has going for him is that he is available on the free agent market. The Patriots have already declined his option. The actual best thing? The fact that he has an alter ego , named Nicco that punishes him when he messes up on the field and lives on Mars when he's not playing.

Now, even if he didn't have an alter ego from Mars, (which, honestly, is more than enough to convince me that the Vikings should sign him), the Vikings should still pursue Stallworth this offseason. Stallworth would be a perfect complement for the Vikings current wide receivers, adding a deep threat that the Vikings are currently lacking (since Sidney Rice is not quite ready yet). Over the last three years, he's averaged 15 catches over 20 yards, and almost three catches over 40 yards a game. To put that in context, Robert Ferguson lead the Vikings in catches over 20 yards, with 5, and no receiver on the Vikings roster has ever had a season with more than 8 receptions for over 20 yards. His yards and touchdowns last year were their lowest in four years, but I think it's safe to say that was mostly due to the fact that he was Tom Brady's third option, behind Randy Moss and Wes Welker. The fact that he's only 27, and that his 46 receptions and 15.2 yards per catch were both the third highest of his career also support that assertion. And not only did he not experience any drop off in DPAR or DVOA, he posted his highest total since his rookie year, with a 15.9 DPAR and a 16.2% DVOA.

One has to wonder how much of that value actually should be attributed to the offense he was playing in and the fact that he was able to play in all 16 games, something he has only able to do two other times in his six year career. His catch percentage in 2007 seems to support the theory that Tom Brady had a lot to do with his high value, as he caught 62% of the passes thrown his way, a career high. The only other time his catch percentage broke 60% was in his rookie year, and he's had two seasons where he caught less than 50% of the passes thrown his way.

It's his catch percentages, combined with his history of injury problems that have prevented him from taking the step from "deep threat" to "#1 receiver". Stallworth's career high in receptions is 70, in 2004, and it's the only time he's had more than 58 in a season. He's never averaged more than 60 yards receiving per game, or had 1000 yards receiving in a season. His career high is 945 yards, in 2004, and it's the only season he's had more than 800 yards receiving. Also, the closest he's come to double digit touchdowns was in his rookie year, when he had 8 TDs.

It's for those reasons that Stallworth would not be the best receiver the Vikings could sign. Bernard Berrian is. However, if the Purple can't sign Berrian, Stallworth would still be a good acquisition, adding a deep threat and a veteran presence that the Purple would be lacking. And finally, he'd be a 2-1 deal, which is the kind of bargain you can't get just anywhere.

Solving Our Problems: Bernard Berrian

[Solving Our Problems is an ongoing series here at the Ragnarok where I evaluate the Vikings' options going into the offseason. I started by looking at the quarterback options, examining Derek Anderson, Donovan McNabb and possible backups for Tarvaris Jackson. Now it's time to figure out who the QB is going to throw to, starting with free agent Bernard Berrian.]

As we all know, Brad Childress isn't a big fan of taking a wide receiver in the first round. I have no problems with that, especially after considering how the difference in performance between Sidney Rice and Troy Williamson. That means, however, that if the Vikings want to get an impact wide receiver to pair with Bobby Wade and Rice next year, they're going to have to sign them in free agency. Luckily for the Vikings, there are quite a few talented receivers who are unrestricted free agents this year (and that's not even counting Randy Moss, who is sadly just a pipe dream).

After Moss, the next best receiver on the market seems to be Bernard Berrian, formerly of the Chicago Bears. Berrian was drafted out of Fresno State in 2004 and is entering his fifth year in the NFL. And he’s made an impact for da Bears, despite having to catch passes from the likes of Rex Grossman, Brian Griese and Kyle Orton (a big plus in my book, considering he’d likely be catching passes from Tarvaris Jackson if he signed with the Purple).

And there’s a reason for all of the excitement surrounding Berrian. He’s increased his receptions and yards every year, and, while his touchdowns fell last year (from 6 to 5), that probably had as much to do with da Bears’ offense becoming worse. He’s 6’1 and is a good leaper—with an accurate quarterback (which he might not have in Purple), he’d be perfect for the fade pass, giving the Vikings another big receiver to throw to in the Red Zone. His hands are pretty good as well, as he caught 55% of the passes thrown his way, despite having inaccurate quarterbacks, and aside from his rookie year, he’s never caught fewer than 50% of the passes thrown to him.

He’d also provide the Vikings with an experienced deep threat that could take the pressure off of Sidney Rice. He has 11 catches for over 20 yards in each of the past two years, and has averaged a little under 4 catches over 40 yards per year in his career. He’s also had at least one reception over 50 yards in each of the last three years, and had two catches for 49 yards in his rookie year.

Berrian is fast, tall and experienced. He fell only 52 yards short of 1000 yards receiving last year, despite catching passes from Kyle Orton, Rex Grossman and Brian Griese. He has good hands. So what’s the problem? Well…

The first problem is that he wants to remain with da Bears, and da Bears want to resign him. That doesn’t guarantee anything, however, mainly because of the second problem, which is that Berrian is represented by Drew Rosenhaus. That’s right—the guy who represented Terrell Owens is the agent for the top free agent wide receiver on the market. That’s a good sign, in that it means that Berrian could end up anywhere. It’s also a bad sign, because it means that he’s chosen a guy like Rosenhaus, who’s perfectly willing to make things insanely difficult if it means getting his client what he wants. That probably bodes well for the Purple, as it makes it less likely that da Bears will slap the Franchise Tag on Berrian, an option that they still have, as Rosenhaus (and Berrian) will fight it.

Is Berrian the Vikings best receiver the Purple could add this year? Yes. Are they going to be able to sign him? Probably not. He’s much more likely to stay in Chicago than go anywhere else, especially because da Bears can franchise him. Is he worth dreaming about? Of course—it’s the off season. Might as well think happy thoughts..

A Good Choice

I know, I know, I promised you a rant about the coaching today. Wouldn’t you rather read something positive and optimistic instead? No? Well, too bad, because I’d much rather write it. And as was pointed out to me last night, the Vikings have an offensive rookie that is doing pretty well, and I’m not talking about Adrian Peterson.

After his breakout game against the Packers, Sidney Rice is now fifth amongst rookies in receiving yards, and fourth in receptions. Three of those four receivers were chosen ahead of him in the draft- James Jones of Green Bay was chosen in the third round. And as you may notice, only Rice is playing in a stunted passing offense.

Receiver	Pick Number	Receptions	Yards	Catch Percentage
Dwayne Bowe (KC)	23	18	299	67%
James Jones (GB)	78	18	232	64%
Calvin Johnson (DET)	2	10	189	59%
Sidney Rice (MIN)	44	10	106	56%
Anthony Gonzales (IND)	32	6	107	60%

No other rookie receiver has over 100 yards receiving yet. That includes first round draft picks Ted Ginn, Jr., Craig Davis and Robert Meachem and the USC pair of Dwayne Jarrett and Steve Smith that were picked after Rice in the second round. Jarrett only has one catch for six yards so far.

So far, Sidney Rice has validated the Vikings decision (and my recommendation) to choose him over all the other wide receivers available to them with their second round choice. And I have to say I'm excited see what he can do if the Vikings quarterback could throw an decent deep ball.

5 Goals for Tonight

The Vikings have one last preseason game to go [Thank God!], and still quite a few questions to answer about their roster. The starters aren't going to play much (with probably one exception), but there's still going to be a lot going on. So without further ado, the five things the Vikings need to accomplish tonight:

1. Get yo' stats. Get paid. Don't. Get. Hurt.

Pretty self explanatory. The last thing anyone wants is for one of their starters to go down during their one series on the field.

2. Choose between Mike Doss and Tank "Tank" Williams.

It’s looking like Greg Blue is going to make the team as the third safety, due to his play so far, cost, his upside and his special teams play. That leaves Mike Doss and Tank “Tank” Williams to fight it out for the final spot. Doss didn’t play in the last game and neither one of them practiced this week, which will greatly increase the amount their play tonight factors into the decision. One blown coverage or missed tackle by either player could be enough to get them the pink slip. I see the Vikings keeping Doss because of the similarities between Tank and Blue, but the extent of Doss’ calf injury could be a huge factor.

3. Pick two of the following: Troy Williamson, Martin Nance, Billy McMullin and Chandler Williams

As I’ve been saying this week, the Vikings seem set to keep Bobby Wade, Sidney Rice, Aundrae Allison and Robert Ferguson. They aren’t going to keep more than six receivers, which means there are only two more spots to fill. None of them have done much in the first three preseason games. Williamson has been a non factor in games (except for when he drops passes), but that doesn’t mean the Vikings are ready to admit they got nothing out of Randy Moss. While he hasn’t done enough to win the starting kick returner job, Williams has done a decent job returning kicks so far. Billy McMullin has shown he can be a relatively dependable fourth receiver and Nance has the ability. I think the Vikings are going to keep Williamson and Williams, because they aren’t ready to give up on their former #1 pick yet and because Williams brings skills to the table that Nance and McMullin do not.

4. Decide on who’s starting on the right side of the line.

Ryan Cook had two false starts last game (not good—false starts correlate with losing. And players that have false started in the past tend to continue to do so), allowing Marcus Johnson back in the picture at Right Tackle. Anthony Herrera and Artis Hicks continue to rotate at guard. Lines that play together perform better, but unless one of the guards can consistently outperform the other and Cook stops making mental mistakes, it won’t matter who starts Week 1. The Vikings are going to use all four of them during the course of the season.

5. Fill the final defensive lineman spot with Fred Evans, Khreem Smith or Jayme Mitchell

The Vikings aren’t keeping more than nine defensive linemen. Right now, they have five defensive ends (Udeze, James, Robison, Scott, Edwards) and three defensive tackles (The Williams Brothers and Spencer Taylor) with roster spots. Smith and Mitchell have both played well during the preseason, but both are defensive ends, something the Vikings have a surplus of. Evans had a limited impact in his time against the Seahawks (2 tackles, 1 forced fumble) and he’s a true defensive tackle. While the Purple could get away with keeping another end due to Darrion Scott’s ability to play DT, it’s better to keep another true defensive tackle. That, combined with the fact they’re looking for Pat Williams heir, means that Evans will make the team.

A Look at Possible Wide Receiver Acquisitions

The Vikings' final preseason game is tomorrow night (and the final cuts have to be made on Saturday), but there's still quite a few questions about who's going to make it. One of the biggest questions is at wide receiver. Bobby Wade had a breakout game against the Seahawks, Robert Ferguson stepped into a starting role, Aundrae Allison continued to be the primary kick returner and Sidney Rice chipped in with three catches for 21 yards. Those four seem to be locks to make the roster, meaning that there are still two spots up for grabs.

Todd Lowber is already gone (likely to the practice squad), leaving Chandler Williams, Martin Nance, Billy McMullin and Troy Williamson (that's right--the #7 pick from two years ago might not make the team) to fight for the last two spots. Their fates are going to be decided tomorrow night. Just because those four are the only wide receivers on the roster, however, doesn't mean the Vikings can't try and upgrade through trades (or by signing a player cut by another team). The Viking Age has realized this, and the fact that there are three "name" receivers that are available: Reggie Williams of the Jacksonville, Michael Clayton of Tampa Bay and Chris Chambers of Miami.

While a lot depends on what they could be acquired for (nothing would be best, of course), but it's also important to ask whether they would actually help the Vikings? Are they worth cutting a Martin Nance or Chandler Williams for?

Reggie Williams has increased his catches, yardage and touchdowns in each of his last three years. Last year, he hauled in 52 passes for 418 yards and four touchdowns. He's not a huge deep threat, only catching seven passes for more than twenty yards, but he's improving. The improvement can also be seen in Football Outsider's advanced statistics. He's increased his DPAR from -7.7 his rookie year to 3.3 last year and his DVOA increased as well, from -36.3% to -9.9%. Neither of those numbers are great (he was 62nd in both categories), but they're better than pretty much anything the Vikings had last year (only Travis Taylor finished ahead of him. His Catch Percentage has increased as well, going from 50% his rookie year to 57% last year. Again, not great, but still better than anything the Vikings had last year and the same as Bobby Wade's percentage. He'd be a great pickup for the Vikings, if available. The problem, of course, is that he's probably not available, as he's moved up the Jaguars depth chart during training camp.

Michael Clayton is more likely to be available. Of course, there's a reason for that: he's gotten worse the last three years. After an outstanding rookie season where he caught 80 passes for 1193 yards and 7 TDs, he's fought injuries the past two years and only caught 65 passes for 728 yards and 1 TD. In 2004, he was fourth in DPAR with 39.8 and 7th in DVOA with 33.9% and he hauled in 66% of the passes thrown to him. In 2005, he was 83rd in DPAR, with a -1.2 DPAR and 82nd with a -18.2% DVOA. His catch percentage dropped to 58%. To put that in context, Troy Williamson was 61st and 54th in DPAR and DVOA respectively that year. His statistics fell even further last year, to -3.8 DPAR and -24.0% DVOA, which were 77th and 78th respectively. His catch percentage continued falling as well, to 51%. Clayton's career seems like it's in a free fall. He's dropping more passes and not getting open as much. And his confidence seems to be shot as well. The Vikings already have a receiver from the 2004 draft whose career is falling apart--they don't need another one.

The final receiver that might be available to the Vikings is Chris Chambers of the Dolphins. He had his worst year last year, only hauling in 59 passes for 677 yards and 4 TDs. Of course, that's still better than what any of the Vikings' receivers did. He's entering his seventh year, but he's only one year removed from an 82 catch, 1198 yard season in which he caught 11 TDs. The talent is there...or is it? Chambers has only posted a double digit DPAR once, in 2003 (15.1). That was also the only year he had a positive DVOA. Last year, he posted the worst DPAR of any receiver who was thrown to more than 50 times (-19.8) and the second worst DVOA (-36.0%). So why do the conventional and advanced stats differ? Because Chambers can't catch. Lots of passes are thrown his way, padding his receptions, yardage and TDs, but most of them are not caught. He only caught 39% of the passes thrown to him, also the worst of anyone receiver with more than 50 passes thrown his way. His catch percentage has been below 50% since 2002. If Vikings fans are frustrated with Troy Williamson's drops last year (his catch percentage was 49%), they'll hate Chambers. The Vikings should stay as far away from him as possible.

As you'd probably expect, of the three receivers that are rumored to be available, the only one that would be worth acquiring, Reggie Williams, would be the hardest to get, if he's available at all. The Vikings would be better served to just stick with the receivers they have.

Putting Off the Questions

Saturday's game was an interesting one, in that in answered some questions well...actually, it didn't really answer too many questions. Rather, it put them off, showing us glimpses of both positive and negative answers.

The biggest question everyone had coming into the game was whether Tarvaris Jackson had what it took to be the starting quarterback. And based on what we saw, the answer is: kind of. He started out the game by completing 9 of his first 13 passes, but then finished it with five straight incompletions, many of them on deeper throws, something he needs to improve considerably. He also showed that he's willing to stay in the pocket and make his reads, rather than pulling the ball down and running at the first hint of pressure. Of course, the fact that he didn't scramble meant that he failed to use a potent weapon in his arsenal. And there was the fumbled snap. Not the best way to start out the game. Finally, Jackson has yet to throw or run for a touchdown. I'm not sure whether or not that's something Vikings' fans should be worried about, however, since he has lead two drives that culminated with touchdowns (One of which was Bobby Wade's pass to Visanthe Shiancoe on a nifty play that SHOULD NOT HAVE BEEN USED IN THE PRESEASON. There's no need to use trick plays in games that don't count. Especially when you have a quarterback that could use the red zone experience.)

That wasn't the only question that the game didn't answer. Those hoping to see whether the newest Vikings, Robert Ferguson and Fred Evans, would make an impact were left wondering if Ferguson's one catch for 11 yards (He had one other pass thrown his way) and Evans' two tackles were signs of bigger things to come or if that's all the Vikings can look forward too from their "big" training camp picks.

Not all of the ambiguous answers leaned to the positive, however. The Vikings special teams continued to be awful. Ryan Longwell missed another field goal, his third miss of the preseason. Chris Kluwe had a twenty yard punt. And that was from the Vikings' 31 yard line. The kickoff team gave up returns of 26 yds, 13 yds (after Longwell's squib kick was fielded at the 13 yard line) and 38 yards. And the return squad didn't do much better, with Aundrae Allison and Chandler Williams averaging 23 yds and 22 yds respectively.

Williams didn't make much of an impact in the return game and he also failed to make much of an impact as a reciever, catching one short pass for 4 yds. Of course, that was one more reception than Martin Nance, Billy McMullin or Todd Lowbar caught. The first round of cuts (trimming the roster to 75) comes tomorrow afternoon, with those surviving getting one more preseason game to make an impression before the roster has to be cut down to 53.

Next: Defense questions that weren't answered
After that: Can Kelly Holcombe play backup QB? How awesome are Chester and AD? And more!

Seahawks-Vikings: THE REMATCH...

Saturday's the Vikings' third preseason game (which, loyal readers, I'm sure you already knew), meaning that Saturday night will be the closest we get to watching a real football game until Week One, as well as the last chance for players to make a good impression, lest they get sent to the chopping block (There's a solid breakdown of the Vikings' likely cuts over at KFAN.com) . And hopefully, it'll involve a few more passes by the Revolution. Aside from hoping that Tarvaris will be a tad bit more involved, there's quite a few other things to watch for:

• How will the newcomers fit in? Can Robert Ferguson show off the talent that lead the Packers to draft him in the second round? Has Fred Evans time in the legal world left him rusty and forlorn? Or will he take out his anger and frustration on the Seahawks?

• Will any of the safeties stand out? It's not that any of them have played poorly, rather, they've all played well, which likely puts Tank Williams as the odd man out, since Greg Blue is a cheaper, younger version of him. So will Tank Williams, Mike Doss or Greg Blue step up their game and insure they get a roster spot?

• Can the special teams units do a better job in winning the field position battle? Will Alex Reyes pull a Bo Jackson after another of his kick offs doesn't go past the twenty and just keep running into the locker room and right off the roster? Is Aundrae Allison going to be returning kicks for the Purple, or will Robert Ferguson or Chandler Williams steal the spot away?
  

• Which of the wide receivers are going to make the team? Troy Williamson, Sydney Rice, Robert Ferguson, Bobby Wade and Aundrae Allison seem to be locks for the team. That leaves Williams, Martin Nance, Billy McMullin and Todd Lowbar competing for the sixtha and final spot. I'd hate to see the Vikings lose Chandler Williams, their seventh rounder. He hasn't caught a pass in a preseason game yet, but he's played well in practice and has the longest kick return for the Vikings' so far (28 yards).
  

• The Vikings have had a lot of success rushing the passer with Brian Robison and Ray Edwards at defensive end. How will the return of Erasmus James play into that? And how is James knee going to hold up in live action? Does he still have the speed and quickness he had prior to the injury? I certainly hope so, because, with the way Robison and Edwards are playing, a healthy James could be the difference between a pass rush that's "better than last year's" and a "great pass rush".
  

• Drew Henson sucks. Will he continue to be a bad quarterback, or will he tantalize the coaching staff with a good performance, thus costing the Vikings the man, the myth, the legend(#16)--Tyler Thigpen. [Thanks to Bob D. for the Youtube link]
  

Robert Ferguson--an Interlude

I'll have my final thoughts on Friday's game up later today, but first, I wanted to discuss the news that the Vikings may be close to adding a veteran wide receiver. Robert Ferguson, formerly of the Green Bay Packers, appears to favor the Purple. And to add even further fuel to the fire, he missed his original flight to Houston, although he did eventually make the trip.

So it seems the Vikings are about to add a new receiver to their much maligned group. But is that a good thing? Gonzo, over at the Daily Norseman doesn't think so. Personally, I'm not so sure.

Ferguson has a few things going against him, starting with the fact that he's had injury problems the last three years, missing four games in 2004 due to a hit that temporarily paralyzed him, five games in 2005 because of a knee injury and 12 games last year due to foot problems. And when he has been healthy, he hasn't exactly light the world on fire--his best year came in 2003, when he caught 38 passes for 520 yards and 4 TDs.

Here's the thing though--when he is healthy, he has the ability to be a deep threat. He has six catches that went for more than 30 yards for his career, which doesn't sound all that impressive, until you realize that the current career leader on the Vikings roster is Troy Williamson with four.

So would the addition of Robert Ferguson be a huge one? No. However, if he can stay healthy, he'll definitely be an improvement over roster filler like Cortez Hankton. It's better to take a risk on a player with talent than to play it safe with a player that doesn't have any.

Quick Thoughts and an Apology

So...remember when I was "back"? Yeah, that didn't work--I clearly overestimated my ability to post while traveling for business. Hence the two posts followed by nothing.

But now, I'm back home, no longer traveling and have given up on the Twins season (meaning, that, while I'll still be watching their games, I no longer feel it necessary to spend time thinking about them). Hopefully, that means this post won't be an isolated one.

Now, I must admit that I was not able to watch the Vikings' first preseason game (oddly enough, not every hotel has the NFL Network--who knew?), but it looked like it went well. Tarvis Jackson's stat line was good for the one quarter he was in--8/11 for 83 yds and 2 scrambles for 25 yds. Troy Williamson and B0bby Wade didn't do too poorly and the defensive ends (not counting the Vikings' run specialist, Keneci Udeze) put pressure on the quarterbacks, even if they didn't actually bring them down.

It was a good first step on the long and winding path back to the playoffs. And the team takes the second step tonight against the Jets. Here's what I'll be looking for tonight:

• Another accurate performance from Tarvaris. I'm hoping he'll once again complete 65%-70% of his passes and avoid throwing interceptions. The biggest question mark with the Revolution is his accuracy and his decision making. The most important thing in Brad Childress' offense are the receivers catching passes in stride on the short and medium routes so they can do something with it.
• Brooks Bollinger continuing to personify mediocrity. The last thing this team needs is a quarterback controversy. Brad Childress' decision to play Bollinger for a quarter with the first team seems guaranteed to create one. If he's mediocre to bad again, that will hopefully put any possible controversy to rest, so Childress can go back to focusing on developing his young starting quarterback. It makes no sense whatsoever to cut into Tarvaris' playing time, especially if the reason is to give Drew Henson and Tyler Thigpen more playing time.
  
• Can any of the rookie wide receivers make an impact in the game? Sidney Rice had one catch last game, but he was the only one.
  
• The Vikings are currently have five safeties with the talent to start. Are Darren Sharper and Dwight Smith locks for the position, or do Mike Doss, Tank Williams and Greg Blue have a shot to start?
• Finally, I'd like to see Tarvaris lead the first team offense to a touchdown, preferably on a completion to Troy Williamson. That would hopefully quiet the nattering nabobs of negativity, at least for a week.
  

Don't Sign Keyshawn...

Unless he comes really cheaply. He was awful last year and mediocre the season before. He's old (He turns 35 this summer), he's slow, and he doesn't actually catch that many of the passes thrown to him. Not to mention there's that whole "attitude problem". Keyshawn would actually be a downgrade from Travis Taylor. Keyshawn's statistics for the last two seasons from Football Outsiders:

Year DPAR DPAR Rank PAR PAR Rank DVOA DVOA Rank VOA Passes Yards TD Catch % 2006 6.7 55 9.1 50 -7.60% 60 -4.30% 128 821 4 55% 2005 10.9 37 10.2 36 -0.90% 52 -1.90% 123 839 6 58% 2004 23.6 20 20.1 28 13.5% 35 8.6% 125 976 6 56%

Taylor's DPAR was 8.6, his DVOA was .9% and he caught 65% of the passes thrown his way. The Vikings would be lucky to get that out of Johnson, considering his statistics have declined the past three years and he's not going to get any younger. If Johnson is content to be a cheap veteran presence for a year while imparting his wisdom to Troy Williamson, Sidney Rice and Aundrae Allison, that's one thing. If he expects to be a centerpiece of an offensive attack, get a decent size contract and generally be treated like a star, the Vikings should let him go elsewhere, since he no longer plays like a star.

[Explanations of DPAR can be found here, while the DVOA explanation is here.]

Get to Know 'Em: Dwayne Jarrett

Rather than add my voice to the legion of bloggers speculating on the Vikings' first round pick, I'm going to take the draft analysis a step further and preview players the Vikings might take with the 41st overall pick. And in case you're wondering, I'm getting the ideas for players from NFL Draft Countdown, Draft Tek and FF Tool Box. So for all I know, these guys will all be gone in the first round, or will still be available when the Vikings draft in the third round. If it's the latter, let's all pretend this was a third round preview, ok? Thanks.
April 3: Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Ohio St.
April 4: Sidney Rice, WR, South Carolina
April 5: Charles Johnson, DE, Georgia
April 8: Steve Smith, WR, USC
April 10: Brandon Meriweather, S, Miami
April 18: Jason Hill, WR, Washington St.
April 19: Tim Crowder, DE, Texas
April 20: Justin Blalock: OG, Texas
April 23: Robert Meachem: WR, Tennessee
April 24: Craig "Buster" Davis: WR, LSU
April 25: Dwayne Jarrett: WR, USC

Instead of taking a look at prospects such as guard Ben Grubbs from Auburn, tackle Tony Ugoh from Arkansas or defensive ends Jarvis Moss from Florida or Anthony Spencer from Purdue, all possible second round choices by the Vikings, I'm going to finish with a player that many were calling for the Vikings to take with their first round pick, Dwayne Jarrett, the junior wide receiver from USC.

A 6'5, 210 playmaker, Jarrett wowed scouts and football fans with huge games against Notre Dame and Michigan his junior year, but has seen his draft stock plummet from the top half of the first round to the top of the second round. He catches everything, has amazing body control (his catches near the side lines are near legendary), runs routes exceptionally well due to his ability to stay low out of his breaks and can hang on to the ball while absorbing a hit. Not to mention the fact that he knows how to exploit his height and reach to create mismatches against faster corner backs.

The problem is that most corners in the NFL will be faster than him, as well as quite a few safeties. His 4.62 forty time at the combine was what originally sent his draft stock plummeting, something that a 4.57 forty during a campus workout did nothing to stop. And when the questions about his speed arose, they brought with them questions about his durability (he injured his quad, shoulder and suffered a concussion his final season at USC) and about his attitude, one scout saying "there is a lot of the brash Keyshawn Johnson and the flippant Mike Williams attitude in this kid". That, obviously, did nothing to help his draft stock.

There is a very good possibility that Dwayne Jarrett will be available to the Purple at #41. Whether they take him will depend a lot on their perception of his work ethic and whether they think Jarrett's lack of speed is too much for his great hands, height, body control and route running.

Get to Know 'Em: Craig "Buster" Davis

Rather than add my voice to the legion of bloggers speculating on the Vikings' first round pick, I'm going to take the draft analysis a step further and preview players the Vikings might take with the 41st overall pick. And in case you're wondering, I'm getting the ideas for players from NFL Draft Countdown, Draft Tek and FF Tool Box. So for all I know, these guys will all be gone in the first round, or will still be available when the Vikings draft in the third round. If it's the latter, let's all pretend this was a third round preview, ok? Thanks.
April 3: Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Ohio St.
April 4: Sidney Rice, WR, South Carolina
April 5: Charles Johnson, DE, Georgia
April 8: Steve Smith, WR, USC
April 10: Brandon Meriweather, S, Miami
April 18: Jason Hill, WR, Washington St.
April 19: Tim Crowder, DE, Texas
April 20: Justin Blalock: OG, Texas
April 23: Robert Meachem: WR, Tennessee
April 24: Craig "Buster" Davis: WR, LSU

My plan for the week is to finish up my previews of second rounders today and tomorrow, discuss possible first round choices on Thursday and then decide on who I'd like to see the Vikings pick in the first two rounds on Friday. So, without further ado, let's get to know Craig "Buster" Davis, a senior wide receiver out of Louisiana State University.

Davis looks like your standard NFL wide receiver, checking in at 6'1, 207 lbs. He has the speed you look for, running a 4.46 forty and he used it well, both as a deep threat for the Tigers and as a return man his senior year, where he returned 10 punts for 142 yards and a touchdown. He pairs his speed with great body control and what some considered to be the best pair of hands in the SEC. And he adjusts well to poorly thrown balls, something that would be very useful in maintaining Tarvaris Jackson's confidence.

The problem is that Davis' is just as likely to pull a Troy Williamson and drop a perfectly placed pass. His focus is a huge question mark--something that's backed up by his lack of production at LSU, as he did not top the 1000 yard mark in four seasons. There's also a lot of questions about his willingness to absorb hits in order to make a catch, as many of the reports describe him as unwilling to go across the middle and dropping passes because he was worrying about getting hit. To put it bluntly, his nickname may as well be "Alligator Arms".

Davis has all the physical attributes you want in a receiver, but seems to be lacking the toughness needed. The last thing the Vikings need right now is player like Troy Williamson, that can't maintain focus or that shies away from contact. There's a good chance that Davis will go prior the Vikings' second round pick, but even if he doesn't, look for the Purple to draft a different wide receiver anyway.