Let's see here. Free agency wasn't exciting. The Vikings' draft class wasn't the type that puts a pep in your step (Do people actually say that, or did I just pull that out of nowhere?), mainly because I don't trust our coaching staff or quarterbacks to take advantage of the high risk/high reward players that were taken (not to mention the whole "hospitalization" thing that just happened to Percy Harvin). And now the Favre story is back.
Ugh.
Pacifist Viking thinks it's happening. Jason Winter shows why it's not a good idea. And I'm sitting here trying to decide which is less painful to think about--selling out to get a mediocre Favre in Purple (he's not the answer at QB this year anymore than Sage Rosenfels is) or the massive buzz kill that is the Twins bullpen (and the knowledge that the Twins' season is likely doomed for the same reason it was last year). At least it's not raining here in D.C.
Oh wait.
Showing posts with label Offseason. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Offseason. Show all posts
Monday, May 04, 2009
Wednesday, March 04, 2009
Killing Time: No Cutler, No Nobody
The Broncos are insisting that Jay Cutler is not available for trade. Not really all that surprising (Let's be honest--there isn't a person in a front office position in any sport willing to take the risk of trading a 25 year old Pro Bowler under contract for three more years), but still disappointing. I guess it was a nice dream while it lasted.
And now that the dream has withered in the sun, the Vikings no longer have a chance to make a significant upgrade to their team via free agency. While they were busy pursuing Housh and Cutler (and resigning Jim Kleinsasser), almost every player they could have pursued signed somewhere else without even visiting Winter Park. And, if they're not careful, they might lose Matt Birk as well (though whether its a good idea to re-sign the 32 year old center is a whole other issue).
I liked that the Vikings' made a play for Housh and that they tried to trade for Cutler. And the Rosenfels trade does upgrade the quarterback position, even if it only brings it up to "slightly-below average". But the Vikings need to upgrade the right side of their offensive line, they need more depth at cornerback and defensive tackle and they need someone to return punts and possibly kicks (if they don't trust Darius Reynaud to stay healthy). And they haven't even hosted a single player that might address those needs.
It was obvious that the Vikings wouldn't be able to address all of their needs via free agency. But it was also obvious that they wouldn't be able to do so via the draft also (they just have too many needs). And at this point, it looks like the draft is the only option they have left, which means that, one year after a hugely successful foray into free agency, the Vikings failed to make any real improvements during free agency because they didn't try hard enough.
And now that the dream has withered in the sun, the Vikings no longer have a chance to make a significant upgrade to their team via free agency. While they were busy pursuing Housh and Cutler (and resigning Jim Kleinsasser), almost every player they could have pursued signed somewhere else without even visiting Winter Park. And, if they're not careful, they might lose Matt Birk as well (though whether its a good idea to re-sign the 32 year old center is a whole other issue).
I liked that the Vikings' made a play for Housh and that they tried to trade for Cutler. And the Rosenfels trade does upgrade the quarterback position, even if it only brings it up to "slightly-below average". But the Vikings need to upgrade the right side of their offensive line, they need more depth at cornerback and defensive tackle and they need someone to return punts and possibly kicks (if they don't trust Darius Reynaud to stay healthy). And they haven't even hosted a single player that might address those needs.
It was obvious that the Vikings wouldn't be able to address all of their needs via free agency. But it was also obvious that they wouldn't be able to do so via the draft also (they just have too many needs). And at this point, it looks like the draft is the only option they have left, which means that, one year after a hugely successful foray into free agency, the Vikings failed to make any real improvements during free agency because they didn't try hard enough.
Tuesday, March 03, 2009
Dreaming Of Cutler
It's clear the Vikings are pushing hard for Jay Cutler. That's the good news. The bad news? He's not going to be easy, or cheap, to get. Is he worth it?
In a word, yes.
Cutler's a 25 year old quarterback that is coming off a year in which he made the Pro Bowl and was one of the best quarterbacks in the league. He would be an instant passing game. Last year, he threw 25 touchdowns and completed 62.3% of 616 pass attempts for 4,526 yards. He averaged 7.1 yards per attempt while only getting sacked 11 times. He was 5th in DYAR and 8th in DVOA last year and 8th and 11th in 2007, his first year of starting. He was really, really good.
Of course, like all players, he has his detractors. The two arguments you hear against Cutler are that he throws a lot of interceptions and that he has yet to lead his team to a winning record, let alone the playoffs. Both of those can be partially explained by the fact that the Broncos were awful defensively the past two years. In 2008, they gave up the third most points in the NFL, allowing their opponents to score 28 a game, which was even worse than their performance in the NFL, when they gave up 25.6 points per game, the fifth worst in the NFL. As we learned the past few years, a team's record is not a very good way to measure a quarterback's performance. Gus Frerotte had a winning record last year, and Tarvaris Jackson had a winning record the year before. When Daunte Culpepper was putting up historic numbers for the 2003 and 2004 Vikings, it wasn't enough to win 10 games because the defense was so awful.
And when your defense is gives up a lot of points, it means your quarterback has to throw the ball a lot against a defense that knows its coming. And when the defense knows you're going to do something, it makes it a lot easier for them to stop. So while Cutler threw 18 interceptions last year, and 14 the year before, its not that surprising considering how often he was passing and how often he was passing against a defense expecting the pass. And even though he threw 18 interceptions, he only threw them on 3.0% of his passes, a number that's more than respectable. To put that in context, Gus Frerotte threw interceptions on 5.0% of his passes last year, Sage Rosenfels threw picks on 5.0% of his passes and Brett Favre threw interceptions on 4.2% of his passes.
So, no matter what people may say, Cutler is good. Really good. And he's signed through the 2011 season. Which means that most likely, the Vikings are going to have to give up a lot in draft picks and likely more than the first and two third rounders they gave up for Jared Allen, whose price tag was lowered by his lack of a long term deal. I'm talking something like two first rounders, with maybe a late rounder or two thrown ni. But would that be worth it?
I think so. Remember--he's young. He's only three years into his career, which means he'll be here a long time, especially if the Vikings sign him to an extension. He'd be worth the 22nd round pick easily. And with him, the Vikings would likely be drafting in the 20s again next year. Draft picks are for acquiring young players and first round draft picks are for acquiring young impact players. And Cutler is a young impact player and is likely going to be better than any player the Vikings would take in the first round the next two years. The Purple have had six draft picks in the second half of the first round in the past 10 years. With those picks, they've drafted the following players:
Would you trade two of those players for Jay Cutler? I know I would. The only player on that list that's even approached Pro Bowl caliber at any point is Chad Greenway and possibly Chris Hovan. And neither of them play a position as important as quarterback.
I know that this is probably a pipe dream. But it's a fun pipe dream and one I'm glad the Vikings are pursuing. And while the Broncos might not be willing to part with Cutler for anything less than a quarterback (which the Vikings don't have) or a Herschel Walker type deal, if they're willing to give him up for less, then the Vikings need to be willing to give that up for a quarterback that's actually good enough to win the Super Bowl. And make no mistake about it--if you add Jay Cutler to this Vikings' team, they are not only good enough to win the Super Bowl, they're good enough to be the favorite.
In a word, yes.
Cutler's a 25 year old quarterback that is coming off a year in which he made the Pro Bowl and was one of the best quarterbacks in the league. He would be an instant passing game. Last year, he threw 25 touchdowns and completed 62.3% of 616 pass attempts for 4,526 yards. He averaged 7.1 yards per attempt while only getting sacked 11 times. He was 5th in DYAR and 8th in DVOA last year and 8th and 11th in 2007, his first year of starting. He was really, really good.
Of course, like all players, he has his detractors. The two arguments you hear against Cutler are that he throws a lot of interceptions and that he has yet to lead his team to a winning record, let alone the playoffs. Both of those can be partially explained by the fact that the Broncos were awful defensively the past two years. In 2008, they gave up the third most points in the NFL, allowing their opponents to score 28 a game, which was even worse than their performance in the NFL, when they gave up 25.6 points per game, the fifth worst in the NFL. As we learned the past few years, a team's record is not a very good way to measure a quarterback's performance. Gus Frerotte had a winning record last year, and Tarvaris Jackson had a winning record the year before. When Daunte Culpepper was putting up historic numbers for the 2003 and 2004 Vikings, it wasn't enough to win 10 games because the defense was so awful.
And when your defense is gives up a lot of points, it means your quarterback has to throw the ball a lot against a defense that knows its coming. And when the defense knows you're going to do something, it makes it a lot easier for them to stop. So while Cutler threw 18 interceptions last year, and 14 the year before, its not that surprising considering how often he was passing and how often he was passing against a defense expecting the pass. And even though he threw 18 interceptions, he only threw them on 3.0% of his passes, a number that's more than respectable. To put that in context, Gus Frerotte threw interceptions on 5.0% of his passes last year, Sage Rosenfels threw picks on 5.0% of his passes and Brett Favre threw interceptions on 4.2% of his passes.
So, no matter what people may say, Cutler is good. Really good. And he's signed through the 2011 season. Which means that most likely, the Vikings are going to have to give up a lot in draft picks and likely more than the first and two third rounders they gave up for Jared Allen, whose price tag was lowered by his lack of a long term deal. I'm talking something like two first rounders, with maybe a late rounder or two thrown ni. But would that be worth it?
I think so. Remember--he's young. He's only three years into his career, which means he'll be here a long time, especially if the Vikings sign him to an extension. He'd be worth the 22nd round pick easily. And with him, the Vikings would likely be drafting in the 20s again next year. Draft picks are for acquiring young players and first round draft picks are for acquiring young impact players. And Cutler is a young impact player and is likely going to be better than any player the Vikings would take in the first round the next two years. The Purple have had six draft picks in the second half of the first round in the past 10 years. With those picks, they've drafted the following players:
| Year | Player | Draft Position | Position |
| 2006 | | 17th | LB |
| 2005 | Erasmus James | 18th | DE |
| 2004 | Kenechi Udeze | 20th | DE |
| 2001 | Michael Bennett | 27th | RB |
| 2000 | Chris Hovan | 25th | DT |
| 1999 | Dimitrius Underwood | 29th | DE |
Would you trade two of those players for Jay Cutler? I know I would. The only player on that list that's even approached Pro Bowl caliber at any point is Chad Greenway and possibly Chris Hovan. And neither of them play a position as important as quarterback.
I know that this is probably a pipe dream. But it's a fun pipe dream and one I'm glad the Vikings are pursuing. And while the Broncos might not be willing to part with Cutler for anything less than a quarterback (which the Vikings don't have) or a Herschel Walker type deal, if they're willing to give him up for less, then the Vikings need to be willing to give that up for a quarterback that's actually good enough to win the Super Bowl. And make no mistake about it--if you add Jay Cutler to this Vikings' team, they are not only good enough to win the Super Bowl, they're good enough to be the favorite.
Monday, March 02, 2009
Killing Time: Waiting For Godotmandzadeh
T.J.'s left town now, which certainly doesn't bode well for the Vikings' chances at signing. Of course, if he's on the way to L.A., it might mean he's planning on signing with the Purple in a few years (sorry, cheap joke). As I wrote on Friday, I think Housh would be a great addition to the Vikings if they can sign him to a contract that doesn't kill their cap when his age catches up to him in a few years. He's big, he has great hands and he catches almost everything thrown his way. He's the perfect complement for Bernard Berrian in the same way that Chris Carter was the perfect complement for Randy Moss. And if there's one thing we should have learned in the past few years, its that while good wide receivers can't make a bad quarterback great, they can make him better. And if you have a bad quarterback throwing to bad receivers (like the Vikings did in 2006), you're really not going to enjoy the passing game.
Letting Housh leave town isn't the only bad thing that's happened to the Purple since free agency started. Pretty much everyone of their other targets have already signed with other teams or don't seem interested. Center/Guard Jason Brown has signed with the Rams, Laveranues Coles hasn't left the East Coast, and Mark Clayton re-upped with Tampa Bay. Matt Cassel was traded to the Chiefs (sketchy, sketchy, sketchy) and Matt Birk is planning on visiting a few other teams.
Of course, when a door closes, a window opens, and for the Vikings those windows are named Kurt Warner and Jay Cutler. Warner's planned a visit with Niners, which means that the Vikings need to do everything in his power to get Warner to Winter Park. And while they're busy trying to woo him, they need to see if they can talk Josh McDaniels into making the worst decision of his career and trading them Jay Cutler (Yes, he'd be worth 3 draft picks. Heck, he might even be worth four).
Letting Housh leave town isn't the only bad thing that's happened to the Purple since free agency started. Pretty much everyone of their other targets have already signed with other teams or don't seem interested. Center/Guard Jason Brown has signed with the Rams, Laveranues Coles hasn't left the East Coast, and Mark Clayton re-upped with Tampa Bay. Matt Cassel was traded to the Chiefs (sketchy, sketchy, sketchy) and Matt Birk is planning on visiting a few other teams.
Of course, when a door closes, a window opens, and for the Vikings those windows are named Kurt Warner and Jay Cutler. Warner's planned a visit with Niners, which means that the Vikings need to do everything in his power to get Warner to Winter Park. And while they're busy trying to woo him, they need to see if they can talk Josh McDaniels into making the worst decision of his career and trading them Jay Cutler (Yes, he'd be worth 3 draft picks. Heck, he might even be worth four).
Friday, February 27, 2009
Killing Time: Rumor Craziness & Housh
So far, the Vikings have done, well, nothing, aside from formalize the trade for Sage Rosenfels. I haven't seen or heard anything about which players are visiting Winter Park, or, really, anything new about any of their free agent targets. Negotiations continue with Matt Birk and Jim Kleinsasser, and the Purple have made offers to restricted free agents Fred Evans (a solid back up for the Williams Wall) and Naufahu Tahi (a horrible blocker who gained 37 receiving yards on 21 targets with a -77.4%DVOA and accumulated -77 DYAR). So really, no big changes except for a fun little rumor started by T.J. Houshmandzadeh who appears to enjoy flirting with every franchise's fanbase. As he said yesterday,
If the Vikings can sign Housh that gives them a reasonable protection against his age 34, 35 and 36 seasons (the upcoming season is his age 32 season), he should definitely be brought in (I'm fine with them paying him for 4 or 5 years for 2 great and one good season, but not with them paying him for 6 or 7 seasons). He's averaged 1012 receiving yards a year over the last five years, and 89 catches. Last year, despite spending 13 games catching passes from Ryan Fitzpatrick, he still caught 92 passes for 904 yards. While he's not a deep threat (he has only 6 catches for over forty yards and 67 catches over 20 yards the last five years), he is an amazing possession receiver--he's not Randy Moss, he's Chris Carter. His worst catch percentage over the last five years is 66% and he's a first down machine, averaging 56 first down catches a year over the past five years and finishing 16th, 1st, 7th and 16th in first down catches in the last four years. He'd be the perfect fit for a West Coast offense, and the perfect complement for Bernard Berrian.
The only question mark is whether he can be signed without a Haynseworthian contract that guarantees it will ruin the Vikings' cap situation as Housh ages. If he can't, he's probably not worth it. If he can be signed for a reasonable (within the context of #1 receiver contracts), then the Vikings should do everything they can to sign him. At the very least, the Purple need to find out the answer.
“I’m looking at teams I think have good coaches and good offensive lines and good running games. I have no idea if those teams are interested in me. If I can play with Adrian Peterson, can you imagine what I would do getting one-on-one coverage with Adrian Peterson? I am going to win 98.6 percent of the time with one-on-one coverage with him in the backfield.”He's also contacted a radio station in Philly and is generally having a good time with being wanted (though I have no idea how he was able to know how often he could beat one-on-one coverage within a tenth of a percent). Would Housh (you type his name out more than once) be a good fit for the Vikings? The answer--it depends on the price.
If the Vikings can sign Housh that gives them a reasonable protection against his age 34, 35 and 36 seasons (the upcoming season is his age 32 season), he should definitely be brought in (I'm fine with them paying him for 4 or 5 years for 2 great and one good season, but not with them paying him for 6 or 7 seasons). He's averaged 1012 receiving yards a year over the last five years, and 89 catches. Last year, despite spending 13 games catching passes from Ryan Fitzpatrick, he still caught 92 passes for 904 yards. While he's not a deep threat (he has only 6 catches for over forty yards and 67 catches over 20 yards the last five years), he is an amazing possession receiver--he's not Randy Moss, he's Chris Carter. His worst catch percentage over the last five years is 66% and he's a first down machine, averaging 56 first down catches a year over the past five years and finishing 16th, 1st, 7th and 16th in first down catches in the last four years. He'd be the perfect fit for a West Coast offense, and the perfect complement for Bernard Berrian.
The only question mark is whether he can be signed without a Haynseworthian contract that guarantees it will ruin the Vikings' cap situation as Housh ages. If he can't, he's probably not worth it. If he can be signed for a reasonable (within the context of #1 receiver contracts), then the Vikings should do everything they can to sign him. At the very least, the Purple need to find out the answer.
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Killing Time: Free Agency Eve
As you've probably heard a hundred times already, teams are able to sign free agents starting at 11pm tonight. And we all hope (and think) that the Vikings will be active in the free agency market. After some of their top targets re-signed with their current teams, its not clear who they're likely to target in the market. They have needs at offensive line, cornerback, wide receiver and kick and punt returner. While there doesn't seem to be many corners worth signing (and they re-signed Charles Gordon to play nickel back and possibly return punts), there are still some intriguing linemen and wide receivers available.
One of the best lineman is Jason Brown, who started at center for the Ravens. He'll only be 26 during this upcoming season, and he was a dominant run blocker in the middle. While the Ravens' running backs were constantly injured, they still had a very good running game, ranking 9th in DVOA. And they were the most successful when they ran up the middle, averaging 4.40 yards per carry, the 10th best in the NFL (and better than the Vikings, who were 19th with 4.15 yards). He can also play guard, which allows the Vikings to play John Sullivan at center if he earns it, upgrading two positions at once.
Another possibility for the Purple is Laveranues Coles. The Jets cut him loose yesterday in order to get under the cap, and acquiring him would add another quality target for Tarvaris (or Sage). Last year, he caught 70 passes for 836 yards and 8 touchdowns. He caught 61% of the passes thrown his way, and was 24th and 36th in DYAR and DVOA (which would have put him well ahead of Bobby Wade for second in both categories on the Vikings). He's not much of a deep threat (he only caught 2 passes over 40 yards), but he'd be a quality possession receiver and would complement Bernard Berrian well. He might end up back with the Jets, however, so I wouldn't get your hopes up about seeing him in Purple.
If you're looking for more players worth targeting, Yahoo has a list of the top 100 free agents (h/t Football Outsiders). Don't be suprised to see the Vikings try and bring in Khalif Barnes, Mark Tauscher or Jon Stinchcom to play right tackle. Niners Nation has a good breakdown of those three, and the other available free agent tackles if you want to know more. And don't forget the twelve Vikings who are unrestricted free agents this year.
Quarterbacks:
One of the best lineman is Jason Brown, who started at center for the Ravens. He'll only be 26 during this upcoming season, and he was a dominant run blocker in the middle. While the Ravens' running backs were constantly injured, they still had a very good running game, ranking 9th in DVOA. And they were the most successful when they ran up the middle, averaging 4.40 yards per carry, the 10th best in the NFL (and better than the Vikings, who were 19th with 4.15 yards). He can also play guard, which allows the Vikings to play John Sullivan at center if he earns it, upgrading two positions at once.
Another possibility for the Purple is Laveranues Coles. The Jets cut him loose yesterday in order to get under the cap, and acquiring him would add another quality target for Tarvaris (or Sage). Last year, he caught 70 passes for 836 yards and 8 touchdowns. He caught 61% of the passes thrown his way, and was 24th and 36th in DYAR and DVOA (which would have put him well ahead of Bobby Wade for second in both categories on the Vikings). He's not much of a deep threat (he only caught 2 passes over 40 yards), but he'd be a quality possession receiver and would complement Bernard Berrian well. He might end up back with the Jets, however, so I wouldn't get your hopes up about seeing him in Purple.
If you're looking for more players worth targeting, Yahoo has a list of the top 100 free agents (h/t Football Outsiders). Don't be suprised to see the Vikings try and bring in Khalif Barnes, Mark Tauscher or Jon Stinchcom to play right tackle. Niners Nation has a good breakdown of those three, and the other available free agent tackles if you want to know more. And don't forget the twelve Vikings who are unrestricted free agents this year.
Quarterbacks:
- Jason Winter compares Tarvaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels at Defensive Indifference.
- Kevin Seifert puts Tarvaris in context. It's not pretty.
- Sports Illustrated and the National Football Post on the impact of the Combine on draft prospects.
- Football Outsiders on the one part of the Combine that may actually be predictive. (And gives us a reason to be happy the Vikings' don't need a running back)
- Their court date is set for June 15th. The schedule hasn't been released yet, but if the Vikings have to play four games without the Williams Wall, they're going to be starting out the season yet another hole.
Thursday, February 19, 2009
Franchise Deadline Unkind to Vikings
Three of the best possible free agents are no longer available anymore. The best offensive tackle, Jordan Gross re-signed with Carolina and the best cornerback, Nnamdi Asomugha, re-signed with Oakland. The latter was a move clearly designed by Asomugha and his agent to assure that he wouldn't be franchised by the Raiders for the rest of his career, as it includes an out clause after the 2010 season. In other, unhappy news, the second best corner on the marker, Dunta Robinson, was franchised by the Texans. He was probably the only potential target for the Vikings to be franchised (aside from Cassel, of course), though a few other players, such as RB/Returner Darren Sproles of the Chargers, OT Max Starks of the Steelers and WR Antonio Bryant of the Bucs might have been interesting signings had they not also been franchised.
While there are still some linemen worth pursuing in free agency (more on that later), the best way for the Vikings to address their need for depth at corner is now through the draft.
While there are still some linemen worth pursuing in free agency (more on that later), the best way for the Vikings to address their need for depth at corner is now through the draft.
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
Killing Time: Contingency Plans
One of the things that makes the off season so interesting is that the Vikings can address their different needs (Quarterback, Cornerback, Offensive line) in so many different ways. What they do in the draft will depend on what they do in free agency, which will depend on whether or not they make a trade which will depend on what they do in free agency and effect how they go about their draft.
Think about it like this: If the Vikings sign Jeff Garcia to play quarterback, they've addressed that position for the season, but still need a long term solution. They also still need a corner back and bring in some help for the positions right of Steve Hutchinson. Odds are they won't have any good options for corners in free agency, but there are a few decent right tackles available. So now their first round pick is still wide open--could be Kansas St. QB Josh Freeman, could be a lineman or it could be a cornerback (with Ball St. QB Nate Davis as their second round pick). If they trade for Matt Cassel, then they're probably out a first round pick, but you know they'll be targeting cornerbacks in the second round (especially if they bring in some depth on the line). And if they can't get Cassel or Garcia, they probably have to trade up for Mark Sanchez if they want a player that has a chance of competing with Tarvaris for the starting job (please don't let this happen). Everything is contingent upon everything. Which makes any kind of mock draft just so much idle speculation until after free agency at least and why it's so hard to figure out which player the Vikings' should pick in the first round.
More on Cassel:
Think about it like this: If the Vikings sign Jeff Garcia to play quarterback, they've addressed that position for the season, but still need a long term solution. They also still need a corner back and bring in some help for the positions right of Steve Hutchinson. Odds are they won't have any good options for corners in free agency, but there are a few decent right tackles available. So now their first round pick is still wide open--could be Kansas St. QB Josh Freeman, could be a lineman or it could be a cornerback (with Ball St. QB Nate Davis as their second round pick). If they trade for Matt Cassel, then they're probably out a first round pick, but you know they'll be targeting cornerbacks in the second round (especially if they bring in some depth on the line). And if they can't get Cassel or Garcia, they probably have to trade up for Mark Sanchez if they want a player that has a chance of competing with Tarvaris for the starting job (please don't let this happen). Everything is contingent upon everything. Which makes any kind of mock draft just so much idle speculation until after free agency at least and why it's so hard to figure out which player the Vikings' should pick in the first round.
More on Cassel:
- DC from Grant's Tomb breaks down Cassel after watching the rebroadcast of the Pats-Jets game.
- Greg Cossel of NFL Films gives his thoughts on the reason for Cassel's success. If he's right, it's not a good sign for a team with a coach that has a slavish adherence to his own system. (h/t Football Outsiders)
- Eugene Monroe breaks down the top offensive linemen available.
- The National Football Post and the Daily Norseman have new mock drafts up. The Post has the Vikings taking Josh Freeman while Gonzo has the Purple taking center Alex Mack from Oregon.
- Football Outsiders has their pre-free agency breakdown of the off season for all four NFC North teams.
Tuesday, January 06, 2009
Killing Time: Damning Quotes, New QBs and Offseason Moves
Two things were clear to all who watched the Vikings' playoff game--Tarvaris Jackson is not the answer at quarterback next year and Brad Childress is not going to be out coaching any of the NFL's quality coaches. According to Michael Silver of Yahoo Sports, it was clear to the Vikings' players as well. Nothing I can write can be more damning about Tarvaris and Childress than the quotes from the Vikings' players, who described Tarvaris as having a “deer-in-headlights” look and complained that the Vikings' "sideline was in total disarray” and "one play behind all day". That being said, Gus Frerotte should probably look in the mirror and remember who he is before he starts whining about not playing. Somehow, I doubt a quarterback that was sacked 29 times (11th most in the NFL) and threw 15 interceptions (4th most in the NFL) despite only making 309 pass attempts (28th in the NFL) and playing in only 11 games would have been the answer against the Philly blitz.
Just because Frerotte wouldn't have saved the season (and honestly, anyone who says he would have because he was 8-3 this year should stop, think about what exactly that means about his play when compared to the above statistics and then take it back before they look too stupid) doesn't mean that something needs to be done to improve the position this off season. Grant's Tomb has a pessimistic view of the Vikings' chances of finding an upgrade, while Pro Football Talk provides some hope that the best quarterback at the Dome might be available. And in case you're wondering, I lay the blame for the Vikings' failure to find a competent quarterback at the feet of Brad Childress. Since he took over, he's had the opportunity to acquire Matt Schaub, Jeff Garcia and Chad Pennington [Edit: Not to mention AP Offensive Player of the Year Drew Brees] via free agency or Sage Rosenfels and Derek Anderson in a trade, as well as draft Brian Brohm, Brady Quinn, Chad Henne, Kellen Clemens and Brodie Croyle, as well as hold onto Tyler Thigpen. While all of those players might not have been any better than Tarvaris, there are quite a few quarterbacks in that list that would have given the Purple a much better chance at winning that playoff game and making a run to the Super Bowl.
Quarterback isn't the only position the Purple need to pursue upgrades at either. Sean Jenkins of the Pioneer Press has a good overview of what moves the Vikings might make. Personally, I'd like to see the Vikings upgrade their secondary (Cedric Griffin is an above average nickle back and a below average starter) and offensive line first, while hopefully bringing in some more talent at wide receiver. There are quite a few players available at those positions in free agency and the draft, so the Purple should be able to bring in upgrades (Nnamdi Asomugha!) to go along with the upgrade at linebacker that will occur when they replace Napolean Harris with E.J. Henderson for the second time.
Just because Frerotte wouldn't have saved the season (and honestly, anyone who says he would have because he was 8-3 this year should stop, think about what exactly that means about his play when compared to the above statistics and then take it back before they look too stupid) doesn't mean that something needs to be done to improve the position this off season. Grant's Tomb has a pessimistic view of the Vikings' chances of finding an upgrade, while Pro Football Talk provides some hope that the best quarterback at the Dome might be available. And in case you're wondering, I lay the blame for the Vikings' failure to find a competent quarterback at the feet of Brad Childress. Since he took over, he's had the opportunity to acquire Matt Schaub, Jeff Garcia and Chad Pennington [Edit: Not to mention AP Offensive Player of the Year Drew Brees] via free agency or Sage Rosenfels and Derek Anderson in a trade, as well as draft Brian Brohm, Brady Quinn, Chad Henne, Kellen Clemens and Brodie Croyle, as well as hold onto Tyler Thigpen. While all of those players might not have been any better than Tarvaris, there are quite a few quarterbacks in that list that would have given the Purple a much better chance at winning that playoff game and making a run to the Super Bowl.
Quarterback isn't the only position the Purple need to pursue upgrades at either. Sean Jenkins of the Pioneer Press has a good overview of what moves the Vikings might make. Personally, I'd like to see the Vikings upgrade their secondary (Cedric Griffin is an above average nickle back and a below average starter) and offensive line first, while hopefully bringing in some more talent at wide receiver. There are quite a few players available at those positions in free agency and the draft, so the Purple should be able to bring in upgrades (Nnamdi Asomugha!) to go along with the upgrade at linebacker that will occur when they replace Napolean Harris with E.J. Henderson for the second time.
Friday, June 20, 2008
It Was a Nice Thought--SI Dooms Vikings to Miss Playoffs
That's right, in a manner eerily reminiscent of Peter King's prediction for the 2005 season, Paul Zimmerman, Dr. Z himself, has picked the Vikings to go to the Super Bowl this year. Color me unexcited.
You may remember what happened after King's prediction set the land of Purple abuzz with dreams of the Super Bowl--the Vikings started out 2-5 and Daunte Culpepper began ruining his legacy as the second best Vikings' quarterback ever by throwing interception after interception and then got hurt and burned every bridge he could on his way out of town. Also, Mike Tice ended up getting fired at the end of the year even after the Purple finished 7-2. And there was that whole "Love Boat" thing. So yeah, sorry if I'm not excited about Dr. Z picking the Vikings to make the Super Bowl.
Of course, Peter King's choice came after what was probably the worst offseason in the Vikings' history. The Vikings traded Randy Moss for the 7th overall choice and Napolean Harris, used their first round choices on Troy Williamson and Erasmus James, along with a whole host of other players that also failed to last more than three years in Purple and signed Fred Smoot. That's a lot of mistakes. Thankfully, the Vikings did make one move that didn't hurt the team, signing Darren Sharper, who may have single handily prevented the 2005 offseason from being the worst ever.
In comparison, Dr. Z's pick comes after what looks like a good offseason for the Purple. Jared Allen is no Fred Smoot (hopefully) and was a much better player than Smoot was with his first team. Bernard Berrian is much more likely to upgrade the receiving corps than Troy Williamson was, and while Madieu Williams may not quite have the same track record as Darren Sharper, he should still be as big an upgrade over Dwight Smith as Sharper was over Brian Russell. Oh, and the Vikings didn't trade away the most talented wide receiver in the league.
That being said, the only reason King was wrong was because he evaluated the Vikings' offseason moves incorrectly. His three other reasons for choosing the Vikings-- that the Eagles (a better team) couldn't keep winning, because they had an easier route to home field than his two other favorites (the Eagles and Panthers) and because the NFC Champion had been in the middle of the pack the previous year--all applied to the eventual NFC Champion Seattle Seahawks.
So while I don't think Dr. Z is wrong about the Vikings' offseason moves, or about Tarvaris Jackson's ability to step up and be a decent quarterback, his pick still scares me, because I didn't think King's reasoning was all that flawed at the time. If Dr. Z is wrong about the Purple's offseason? Well, let's just say that this next offseason will likely be as tumultuous as the 2006 offseason was.
You may remember what happened after King's prediction set the land of Purple abuzz with dreams of the Super Bowl--the Vikings started out 2-5 and Daunte Culpepper began ruining his legacy as the second best Vikings' quarterback ever by throwing interception after interception and then got hurt and burned every bridge he could on his way out of town. Also, Mike Tice ended up getting fired at the end of the year even after the Purple finished 7-2. And there was that whole "Love Boat" thing. So yeah, sorry if I'm not excited about Dr. Z picking the Vikings to make the Super Bowl.
Of course, Peter King's choice came after what was probably the worst offseason in the Vikings' history. The Vikings traded Randy Moss for the 7th overall choice and Napolean Harris, used their first round choices on Troy Williamson and Erasmus James, along with a whole host of other players that also failed to last more than three years in Purple and signed Fred Smoot. That's a lot of mistakes. Thankfully, the Vikings did make one move that didn't hurt the team, signing Darren Sharper, who may have single handily prevented the 2005 offseason from being the worst ever.
In comparison, Dr. Z's pick comes after what looks like a good offseason for the Purple. Jared Allen is no Fred Smoot (hopefully) and was a much better player than Smoot was with his first team. Bernard Berrian is much more likely to upgrade the receiving corps than Troy Williamson was, and while Madieu Williams may not quite have the same track record as Darren Sharper, he should still be as big an upgrade over Dwight Smith as Sharper was over Brian Russell. Oh, and the Vikings didn't trade away the most talented wide receiver in the league.
That being said, the only reason King was wrong was because he evaluated the Vikings' offseason moves incorrectly. His three other reasons for choosing the Vikings-- that the Eagles (a better team) couldn't keep winning, because they had an easier route to home field than his two other favorites (the Eagles and Panthers) and because the NFC Champion had been in the middle of the pack the previous year--all applied to the eventual NFC Champion Seattle Seahawks.
So while I don't think Dr. Z is wrong about the Vikings' offseason moves, or about Tarvaris Jackson's ability to step up and be a decent quarterback, his pick still scares me, because I didn't think King's reasoning was all that flawed at the time. If Dr. Z is wrong about the Purple's offseason? Well, let's just say that this next offseason will likely be as tumultuous as the 2006 offseason was.
Monday, May 05, 2008
Offseason Plans and Some Links
The big news this weekend was the cutting of Dallas Starz by the Vikings. He lasted almost two months with the Purple after failing to make the Redskins last year despite being their fifth round pick in the 2007 draft. Also, Rookie Camp started, and from all accouints, it's going well. And by that, I mean that the Vikings didn't have a high draft choice show up late on the first day because he overslept. It wasn't that big of a deal though, as his brother explained, "Knowing Frederick [Davis] the way I do, he was probably just out late and he overslept, he probably just didn't hear the alarm. And I know he wasn't feeling too good the other day".
Ok. Enough wannabe Mike Florio talk. It's May, which means, that barring something negative happening, there's not going to be a whole lot going on. This time last year, I took a sabbatical for the summer. I'm not going to do that again, but I'm not going to confine myself to just football talk. I love the NFL, but I love baseball and college basketball too, and if I tried to confine myself to just football in the offseason, I won't have anything to write about.
For example, I could talk about the Vikings' Rookie Camp, or I could talk about the first place Minnesota Twins. I'm going to go with the Twins, who, thanks to slow starts by the Indians and Tigers, were able to wrest first place away from the White Sox with a five game winning streak that included a two game sweep of the White Sox and a three game sweep of the Tigers. Now, I'd love to say the this is all about the Twins, but the reality is that the Tigers and Indians are better than their sub .500 records show, while the Twins are playing at about the level that their most optimistic fans thought they'd be able to pull off. Carlos Gomez isn't walking yet (but man, is he fast) and Delmon Young isn't hitting for power (but his walk rate is up), but despite that, the Twins have overcome the injury to their clean up hitter and are, well, second to last in the AL in runs. And now, Scott Baker, their best pitcher is likely going on the DL. I don't think a team that gives up as many outs as the Twins can compete unless all of their pitchers are pitching well. So far, they have, but there have been cracks in the bullpen and I don't trust Nick Blackburn and Livian Hernandez to continue to be successful with such low strikeout rates.
It's only been a month, but still-it's nice to see a team I didn't expect to be good until later in the season in first place. It probably won't last, but, like the Vikings last year, all I want out of the Twins is for them to be in contention, and so far, they're doing everything I could ask of them.
And now, some quick, football links worth taking a look at:
Ok. Enough wannabe Mike Florio talk. It's May, which means, that barring something negative happening, there's not going to be a whole lot going on. This time last year, I took a sabbatical for the summer. I'm not going to do that again, but I'm not going to confine myself to just football talk. I love the NFL, but I love baseball and college basketball too, and if I tried to confine myself to just football in the offseason, I won't have anything to write about.
For example, I could talk about the Vikings' Rookie Camp, or I could talk about the first place Minnesota Twins. I'm going to go with the Twins, who, thanks to slow starts by the Indians and Tigers, were able to wrest first place away from the White Sox with a five game winning streak that included a two game sweep of the White Sox and a three game sweep of the Tigers. Now, I'd love to say the this is all about the Twins, but the reality is that the Tigers and Indians are better than their sub .500 records show, while the Twins are playing at about the level that their most optimistic fans thought they'd be able to pull off. Carlos Gomez isn't walking yet (but man, is he fast) and Delmon Young isn't hitting for power (but his walk rate is up), but despite that, the Twins have overcome the injury to their clean up hitter and are, well, second to last in the AL in runs. And now, Scott Baker, their best pitcher is likely going on the DL. I don't think a team that gives up as many outs as the Twins can compete unless all of their pitchers are pitching well. So far, they have, but there have been cracks in the bullpen and I don't trust Nick Blackburn and Livian Hernandez to continue to be successful with such low strikeout rates.
It's only been a month, but still-it's nice to see a team I didn't expect to be good until later in the season in first place. It probably won't last, but, like the Vikings last year, all I want out of the Twins is for them to be in contention, and so far, they're doing everything I could ask of them.
And now, some quick, football links worth taking a look at:
- The Pioneer Press Vikings' blog has a scouting report for all of the Vikings' rookie free agents.
- While the Vikings didn't have one of their draft classes make the list, the Pro Football Reference blog has an interesting take on the top draft classes of all time.
- Sports Illustrated is starting to hop on the Vikings bandwagon. Don Banks has the Vikings as a "riser" and Peter King has the Purple ranked #7 in his power rankings.
- The Vikings weren't the only team that had an awful 2005 draft. As Pro Football Talk explains, the 2005 first round was full of players that didn't turn out (just another reason why trading for Jared Allen is more likely to work out than keeping the picks or using them to move up in the draft)
Tuesday, April 01, 2008
In Case You Missed It: ESPN on the Vikings
ESPN did a profile on the Vikings on Sportscenter today and I managed to record it and put it on youtube. They discussed the Purple's offseason moves, their chances for next year and their draft needs. And apparently they believe the Vikings still have a chance at acquiring Donovan McNabb. Maybe it's just me, but I just don't see it...
Monday, January 07, 2008
Solving Our Problems: Donovan McNabb
[Solving Our Problems is an ongoing series here at the Ragnarok where I evaluate the Vikings' options going into the offseason. I've started by looking at the quarterback options, starting with Derek Anderson and now Donovan McNabb.]
Now this, this, is the big name guy the Vikings have been missing at quarterback since Daunte Culpepper blew his knee out in 2005. He's not a third year quarterback that's had one good year, like Derek Anderson. He's not a second year quarterback that's gone back and forth between "good" and "oh my God awful". He has nine years of experience in the Vikings offense, knows Brad Childress well, has gone to multiple Pro Bowls, led the Eagles to Super Bowl XXXIX and was on the cover of Madden. Donovan McNabb seems to be everything the Vikings could ever want. There are just a few small, minor details that might prevent McNabb and Kluwe from having to fight over #5 and usual, those details will most likely be the difference.
The first detail is the question of whether he's actually available. The Eagles are on record saying that they will not be trading McNabb. Which, honestly, could mean anything. The Eagles did pick their next franchise quarterback, Kevin Kolb, in last year's draft, but he hasn't even in thrown a pass in a game yet. Considering the Eagles were eliminated from the playoffs prior to the end of the season, one would think that they would have gotten Kolb some playing time if they actually were considering trading McNabb and going with their younger "franchise quarterback", but they didn't.
Secondly, there's the question of what it would cost to get McNabb. If the asking price for Derek Anderson is a first and a third round pick, what does that do to the asking price for McNabb, especially if the Eagles aren't hellbent on trading him? The Vikings won't be the only team pursuing McNabb either--da Bears want him just as badly as the Vikings. That's not exactly going to drive down the Eagle's asking price.
So, say the Vikings are able to get McNabb for a first and a third round pick (roughly what the Browns are asking for Anderson). Is he worth it? He'll be turning 32 next season and has 9 years of experience. He has a career Quarterback Rating of 85.8 and just finished up a season where he posted a QB rating of 89.9 (9th overall) by completing 61.5% of his passes (20th) for 3324 yards (13th), 19 TDs (14th) and only 7 interceptions. He had four games with a QB rating over 100, including a perfect 158.3 against the Lions. He was sacked 44 times, which, oddly enough, wasn't his career high (he was sacked 45 times in 2000), but he also rushed for 236 yards on 50 carries. Looking at the more advanced stats shows us that McNabb also had an impressive season. He averaged almost 6 yards per attempt, with a 52.5 DPAR (14th) and 9.9% DVOA (19th). There are injury concerns. He missed two games this year with thumb and ankle injuries and is only a season removed from knee surgery, which he was still feeling the effects of this year. By all accounts, his mobility didn't come back until the last few games of the year, something that his stats back up, as he gained 166 of his 236 rushing yards (70%) in his last five games.
So would he be worth a 1st and a 3rd round pick (remember, the Vikings have two 3rd round picks this year)? I'd say yes, despite the injury concerns. McNabb would give the Purple a passing game by himself, something he's done almost every year he's been with the Eagles. And acquiring him wouldn't mean the end of the Tarvaris Revolution, as he could serve as McNabb's backup, fill in for him when McNabb gets hurt and learn from him for two years. Honestly, it'd be an ideal situation for the Purple. The only problem is that there's no way that they'll be able to get McNabb for that. I'd be surprised if he's available at all, seeing as how the Eagles are one of the most conservative franchises in the NFL and seem to be convinced that the main reason they missed the playoffs was because McNabb was still recovering from his knee injury at the beginning of the season, when they started 1-3. They didn't even give Kolb a test run after they were eliminated, a decision that doesn't jibe with a willingness to trade McNabb. So even if he is available, I just don't see him being available for a reasonable price. And while I'd love to have McNabb in Purple, he isn't worth a Herschel Walker "mortgage the future" style trade, which is probably the only way to get him. It was a nice thought though.
Now this, this, is the big name guy the Vikings have been missing at quarterback since Daunte Culpepper blew his knee out in 2005. He's not a third year quarterback that's had one good year, like Derek Anderson. He's not a second year quarterback that's gone back and forth between "good" and "oh my God awful". He has nine years of experience in the Vikings offense, knows Brad Childress well, has gone to multiple Pro Bowls, led the Eagles to Super Bowl XXXIX and was on the cover of Madden. Donovan McNabb seems to be everything the Vikings could ever want. There are just a few small, minor details that might prevent McNabb and Kluwe from having to fight over #5 and usual, those details will most likely be the difference.
The first detail is the question of whether he's actually available. The Eagles are on record saying that they will not be trading McNabb. Which, honestly, could mean anything. The Eagles did pick their next franchise quarterback, Kevin Kolb, in last year's draft, but he hasn't even in thrown a pass in a game yet. Considering the Eagles were eliminated from the playoffs prior to the end of the season, one would think that they would have gotten Kolb some playing time if they actually were considering trading McNabb and going with their younger "franchise quarterback", but they didn't.
Secondly, there's the question of what it would cost to get McNabb. If the asking price for Derek Anderson is a first and a third round pick, what does that do to the asking price for McNabb, especially if the Eagles aren't hellbent on trading him? The Vikings won't be the only team pursuing McNabb either--da Bears want him just as badly as the Vikings. That's not exactly going to drive down the Eagle's asking price.
So, say the Vikings are able to get McNabb for a first and a third round pick (roughly what the Browns are asking for Anderson). Is he worth it? He'll be turning 32 next season and has 9 years of experience. He has a career Quarterback Rating of 85.8 and just finished up a season where he posted a QB rating of 89.9 (9th overall) by completing 61.5% of his passes (20th) for 3324 yards (13th), 19 TDs (14th) and only 7 interceptions. He had four games with a QB rating over 100, including a perfect 158.3 against the Lions. He was sacked 44 times, which, oddly enough, wasn't his career high (he was sacked 45 times in 2000), but he also rushed for 236 yards on 50 carries. Looking at the more advanced stats shows us that McNabb also had an impressive season. He averaged almost 6 yards per attempt, with a 52.5 DPAR (14th) and 9.9% DVOA (19th). There are injury concerns. He missed two games this year with thumb and ankle injuries and is only a season removed from knee surgery, which he was still feeling the effects of this year. By all accounts, his mobility didn't come back until the last few games of the year, something that his stats back up, as he gained 166 of his 236 rushing yards (70%) in his last five games.
So would he be worth a 1st and a 3rd round pick (remember, the Vikings have two 3rd round picks this year)? I'd say yes, despite the injury concerns. McNabb would give the Purple a passing game by himself, something he's done almost every year he's been with the Eagles. And acquiring him wouldn't mean the end of the Tarvaris Revolution, as he could serve as McNabb's backup, fill in for him when McNabb gets hurt and learn from him for two years. Honestly, it'd be an ideal situation for the Purple. The only problem is that there's no way that they'll be able to get McNabb for that. I'd be surprised if he's available at all, seeing as how the Eagles are one of the most conservative franchises in the NFL and seem to be convinced that the main reason they missed the playoffs was because McNabb was still recovering from his knee injury at the beginning of the season, when they started 1-3. They didn't even give Kolb a test run after they were eliminated, a decision that doesn't jibe with a willingness to trade McNabb. So even if he is available, I just don't see him being available for a reasonable price. And while I'd love to have McNabb in Purple, he isn't worth a Herschel Walker "mortgage the future" style trade, which is probably the only way to get him. It was a nice thought though.
Monday, July 30, 2007
A Dominant Offensive Line?
The Vikings are willing to trust that Tarvaris Jackson can run a competent air attack because of their confidence in their ability to run the ball. And while Chester Taylor is a solid back and Adrian Peterson has all of the talent in the world, the Vikings’ faith in their running game is due to their faith in their offensive line. And considering how much money they’ve invested in their line, they had better be confident in its ability to open massive holes for their skilled backs, not to mention their ability to give Tarvaris Jackson a chance to develop as a quarterback, rather than as a scrambler.
Was the money well spent? Should the Vikings be confident in their offensive line’s abilities? According to this year’s Pro Football Prospectus (PFP), the answer is yes…and no. [Just so everyone knows, I’m going to be drawing from the Prospectus the entire preseason. This book is awesome, with an amazing amount of statistics and is quite well written. Like Baseball Prospectus, it is a required purchase prior to the season.]
As you’d expect, the Vikings’ line was pretty good last year. However, it was not the dominant force the team needs. It was above average in the running game, but well below average in protecting the passer and nowhere near as dominant in the run game as one would think a line with Bryant McKinnie, Steve Hutchinson and Matt Birk would be. Whether that was due to the incompetent quarterbacking, the weak quality of the right side or McKinnie’s broken hand, depends on who you ask. By using PFP’s statistics, however, the answer becomes a little clearer.
Prior to consulting any statistics, my hunch would be that the line’s inability to dominate the pass rush had to do with Brad Johnson’s immobility. Their adjusted sack rate (ASR) , which is calculated by adding sacks and intentional grounding and then dividing that by pass plays and adjusting for situation, ranked 22nd overall at 7.6%. To put that in context, the Colts’ line had the best ASR in the NFL at 3.4%. This stat is also kept for quarterbacks, however, which allows you to better determine whether the sack was the line's fault or the quarterback. And it implies my hunch was incorrect. Brooks Bollinger and Tarvaris Jackson went down frequently, with ASR’s of 24.3% and 8.7% respectively, while Brad Johnson actually had a lower ASR than the offensive line, with a 5.9%. Bollinger’s career ASR is actually worse than David Carr’s and Tarvaris is a rooke that likes to run, neither of which bodes well for a line trying to keep their QB upright.
Even when the quarterback handed the ball off, the Vikings’ line didn’t dominate as much as would be expected. And the problems weren’t on the right side like you'd think. PSP’s charting has broken down the yardage gained depending on where on the line the back ran, recording each run off left end, left tackle, middle, right tackle and right end. One would think that the Vikings’ were completely above average going to the left side, but that isn’t what the statistics show. In reality, there worst outcomes came off of left end, where they averaged 3.00 yds/carry, in comparison to a league average of 4.12. The Vikings were above average on every other part of the line, with their greatest success coming off of right end, where they ran for 5.15 yds/carry, more than a yard better than the 4.08 average. They were also successful off of left tackle (4.85 yds/carry, compared to a 4.36 average) and off of right tackle, at 4.54 yds/carry, with the league averaging 4.21 yds/carry. Up the middle, however, they were middle of the road, gaining 4.33 yd/s carry, almost exactly the same as the 4.32 league average.
This information seems to back up the idea that the right side of the line was the weak point, as well as demonstrate that Matt Birk was not as effective as he was prior to his hernias. Even with Steve Hutchinson to help, running the ball up the middle behind Birk and Artis Hicks was in effective. And running the ball outside to the left, behind a pulling Birk or Hicks was an exercise in futility. But when Hicks or Birk were deemphasized, the Vikings ground game was in the top six, whether it was behind Bryant McKinnie or a pulling Steve Hutchinson. And it seems that Ryan Cook and Marcus Johnson were competent at doing their jobs in the running game.
Based on last year's statistics, it seems the Vikings don't quite have the quality of line they need for their running game to carry their offense. They are set at left tackle and left guard, but their center is aging and losing effectiveness. Not to mention the fact that Artis Hicks wasn’t worth acquiring and Ryan Cook is still a question mark. The Vikings should still be effective running Peterson and Taylor behind McKinnie and Hutchinson, but the reality is that it won’t be enough to remove the pressure from Tarvaris Jackson and his merry band of receivers to keep the offense moving. And it won’t help that they’ll have problems keeping defenders off of Tarvaris either, something that won't help him develop the instincts he needs to determine when to run and when to hang in the pocket.
Was the money well spent? Should the Vikings be confident in their offensive line’s abilities? According to this year’s Pro Football Prospectus (PFP), the answer is yes…and no. [Just so everyone knows, I’m going to be drawing from the Prospectus the entire preseason. This book is awesome, with an amazing amount of statistics and is quite well written. Like Baseball Prospectus, it is a required purchase prior to the season.]
As you’d expect, the Vikings’ line was pretty good last year. However, it was not the dominant force the team needs. It was above average in the running game, but well below average in protecting the passer and nowhere near as dominant in the run game as one would think a line with Bryant McKinnie, Steve Hutchinson and Matt Birk would be. Whether that was due to the incompetent quarterbacking, the weak quality of the right side or McKinnie’s broken hand, depends on who you ask. By using PFP’s statistics, however, the answer becomes a little clearer.
Prior to consulting any statistics, my hunch would be that the line’s inability to dominate the pass rush had to do with Brad Johnson’s immobility. Their adjusted sack rate (ASR) , which is calculated by adding sacks and intentional grounding and then dividing that by pass plays and adjusting for situation, ranked 22nd overall at 7.6%. To put that in context, the Colts’ line had the best ASR in the NFL at 3.4%. This stat is also kept for quarterbacks, however, which allows you to better determine whether the sack was the line's fault or the quarterback. And it implies my hunch was incorrect. Brooks Bollinger and Tarvaris Jackson went down frequently, with ASR’s of 24.3% and 8.7% respectively, while Brad Johnson actually had a lower ASR than the offensive line, with a 5.9%. Bollinger’s career ASR is actually worse than David Carr’s and Tarvaris is a rooke that likes to run, neither of which bodes well for a line trying to keep their QB upright.
Even when the quarterback handed the ball off, the Vikings’ line didn’t dominate as much as would be expected. And the problems weren’t on the right side like you'd think. PSP’s charting has broken down the yardage gained depending on where on the line the back ran, recording each run off left end, left tackle, middle, right tackle and right end. One would think that the Vikings’ were completely above average going to the left side, but that isn’t what the statistics show. In reality, there worst outcomes came off of left end, where they averaged 3.00 yds/carry, in comparison to a league average of 4.12. The Vikings were above average on every other part of the line, with their greatest success coming off of right end, where they ran for 5.15 yds/carry, more than a yard better than the 4.08 average. They were also successful off of left tackle (4.85 yds/carry, compared to a 4.36 average) and off of right tackle, at 4.54 yds/carry, with the league averaging 4.21 yds/carry. Up the middle, however, they were middle of the road, gaining 4.33 yd/s carry, almost exactly the same as the 4.32 league average.
This information seems to back up the idea that the right side of the line was the weak point, as well as demonstrate that Matt Birk was not as effective as he was prior to his hernias. Even with Steve Hutchinson to help, running the ball up the middle behind Birk and Artis Hicks was in effective. And running the ball outside to the left, behind a pulling Birk or Hicks was an exercise in futility. But when Hicks or Birk were deemphasized, the Vikings ground game was in the top six, whether it was behind Bryant McKinnie or a pulling Steve Hutchinson. And it seems that Ryan Cook and Marcus Johnson were competent at doing their jobs in the running game.
Based on last year's statistics, it seems the Vikings don't quite have the quality of line they need for their running game to carry their offense. They are set at left tackle and left guard, but their center is aging and losing effectiveness. Not to mention the fact that Artis Hicks wasn’t worth acquiring and Ryan Cook is still a question mark. The Vikings should still be effective running Peterson and Taylor behind McKinnie and Hutchinson, but the reality is that it won’t be enough to remove the pressure from Tarvaris Jackson and his merry band of receivers to keep the offense moving. And it won’t help that they’ll have problems keeping defenders off of Tarvaris either, something that won't help him develop the instincts he needs to determine when to run and when to hang in the pocket.
Tuesday, May 22, 2007
It's the Offseason...
Real world obligations, a lack of inspiration and a writing gig over at MN Gameday mean that it's time for me to make like a veteran unhappy with their contract and sit out the rest of the offseason. I'll be back for training camp (I've already got my money ready for Football Prospectus 2007) and if you really need to read my stuff, you can get my weekly take on the Twins every Monday evening.
And, if you really need your Vikings fix, there are a host of great sites--let me recommend the Daily Norseman and Pacifist Viking--I know I'll be checking them regularly.
And, if you really need your Vikings fix, there are a host of great sites--let me recommend the Daily Norseman and Pacifist Viking--I know I'll be checking them regularly.
Thursday, March 22, 2007
Get Carr Now!
The Houston Texans have acquired Matt Schaub from the Falcons for draft picks, meaning David Carr is available and that he's available for a lot less. This is the perfect opportunity for the Purple to turn a lackluster offseason into an intriguing one. It is a chance to trade for a quarterback that has the skills necessary to run Childress' offense while the Tarvaris Revolution gains the experience needed to make the jump from 1-AA to the NFL. And it's a chance to do so at a reduced cost. Trading for David Carr would be a great move by the Vikings, would signal to their fans that they are not only trying to rebuild the franchise (which is necessary) but also trying to win before their defensive stars get old. And it can most likely be done for a reasonable price in draft picks.
So basically, what I'm trying to say is that I have no confidence that the Vikings will pull off a trade for David Carr.
So basically, what I'm trying to say is that I have no confidence that the Vikings will pull off a trade for David Carr.
Thursday, March 15, 2007
It's March...
Which means I'm focused on one thing: March Madness and the Georgetown Hoyas. I might still be able to split my focus where the Vikings actually doing anything noteworthy, but resigning Drew Henson to "compete" for the backup QB spot and talking with a back up DT is not noteworthy. So I'm going to get back to freaking out about whether articles saying that the Hoyas are not going to lose their focus despite playing a 15 seed and being the trendy pick to win it all means that the Hoyas have lost their focus.
LET'S GO HOYAS!!!
LET'S GO HOYAS!!!
Tuesday, March 13, 2007
As a Tumbleweed Goes By...
Sooooo....is anyone actually thinking about the Vikings right now? I mean, the bracket just came out, Spring Training is in full swing, and the Purple are in something of a wait and see mode (please note the sarcasm dripping all over that last phrase). The only chance they have to sign a "big" name is if they can get Kevin Curtis to put his name on the dotted line, and who knows when he'll do that, what with four different teams courting him, new agents and the knowledge that he is the best reciever left on the market. Their other opportunity to make news isn't until the draft, which is a good month and a half away. And the fun thing is, no one is going to be that happy with the Vikings draft unless Calvin Johnson falls to them in the first round (not happening) or Dwayne Jarrett falls to them in the second (ditto). Bobby Wade might be a good addition, but only as a 2nd or 3rd reciever. Right now, he's the clear #1. [Fun quote from Football Outsider's NFL North Offseason Preview, "Hopefully, their big additions are not Bobby Wade and Justin Gage, who would form a nice threesome with McMullen on an all-replacement level team. "]
Vikings fans should not despair, however. As Cold, Hard Football Facts notes, "Pro Bowlers aren’t bought, they’re drafted. " They also compare and contrast the Vikings' 2006 offseason with the Colts'. Guess which team made a bigger splash in free agency (Here's a hint: it wasn't the team that won the Super Bowl.) And since it's clear that the Vikings aren't going to win any awards this offseason, one can only hope that Tarvaris Jackson duplicates Daunte Culpeppers 2000 season. Or, if they're like me, they can spend their time thinking about baseball and whether or not it's ok for them to pick against their alma mater in their bracket.
[On a somewhat related note, I've rejoined the MNGameday team for baseball season, and I'll be writing a weekly links column, as well as a regular column every other week or so. My first column, naturally is not about the Twins, but is instead about my love for the Georgetown Hoyas.]
Vikings fans should not despair, however. As Cold, Hard Football Facts notes, "Pro Bowlers aren’t bought, they’re drafted. " They also compare and contrast the Vikings' 2006 offseason with the Colts'. Guess which team made a bigger splash in free agency (Here's a hint: it wasn't the team that won the Super Bowl.) And since it's clear that the Vikings aren't going to win any awards this offseason, one can only hope that Tarvaris Jackson duplicates Daunte Culpeppers 2000 season. Or, if they're like me, they can spend their time thinking about baseball and whether or not it's ok for them to pick against their alma mater in their bracket.
[On a somewhat related note, I've rejoined the MNGameday team for baseball season, and I'll be writing a weekly links column, as well as a regular column every other week or so. My first column, naturally is not about the Twins, but is instead about my love for the Georgetown Hoyas.]
Thursday, March 08, 2007
Waiting for Godot
As we all wait for the Vikings to sign a free agent worth getting excited about (I like the Wade signing, but I pray he isn't the best player the Vikings' sign), a few things are happening around the web.
- After the 'Skins signed Fred Smoot, ThatGuyBen of the Curly R (with whom I traded questions prior to the Vikings' opener) contacted me for my thoughts about Ol' Double Duty (scroll about halfway down the post). Apparently, I'm now an expert on the Vikings. Isn't this here internet grand?
- Bobby Wade should be a good receiver for the Vikings. His return skills, however, seem to leave something to be desired. Considering that Mewelde Moore is pretty good at returning punts, there's no reason to put Wade back there. Kick returns might get a little more interesting though.
- The commenters over at the Star Tribune's Vikings' blog weren't playing nice. I know this, not because I read the soul numbing comments, but because the Star Tribune felt it necessary to reprimand them.
- Napoleon Harris is now a Kansas City Chief. The Vikings should never be allowed to participate in a trade involving a star player again.
- I now have an RSS Feed! I think...
Wednesday, March 07, 2007
The Rebuilding of the Receiving Corp
The Vikings finally inked their first free agent that didn't come with a pronunciation guide last night, signing Bobby Wade, formerly of the Tennessee Titans, for five years and $15 million. Wade had something of a break out year last season, finishing second on the team with 33 receptions for 461 yards. While the totals don't seem all that impressive, they're deceptive.
First off, the Titans were starting a rookie Vince Young, at quarterback (Yes, he was Rookie of the Year, but he was still a rookie) . Jeff Fisher is an intelligent coach--he wasn't going to put the focus on his brand new franchise quarterback. The Titans ran the ball about half the time and had the fifth lowest passing attempts in the NFL. And Vince Young finished with the worst completion percentage in the NFL, at 51.5% (and I wonder how he's going to do now that his top two receivers have gone elsewhere?)
Secondly, as I mentioned yesterday, Wade added a lot of value to the Titans. He contributed 11.1 DPAR, which was 1.5 more than the Vikings leading receiver. The reason he was able to do so was because of what he did with his limited receptions. His 14.9% DVOA was the 19th best in the NFL. Both of these totals were better than Drew Bennett's, who had 6.6 DPAR and -4.5% DVOA. Wade even has a decent catch percentage, as he hauled in 57% of the passes thrown to him, which puts him somewhere in the middle of the pack for wide receivers. For example, he would have been behind Travis Taylor (65%) but ahead of Marcus Robinson (50%) on the Vikings last year. When using that stat, one must also remember that it does not attempt to decide where the fault for the incompletion lies, and Wade was playing with the most inaccurate quarterback in the NFL.
So while Wade's statistics may not be all that impressive by themselves, when taken in context, they show a receiver who will be an upgrade over any of the wide outs from last season. His addition is a good first step for the Vikings as they attempt to provide Tarvaris Jackson with someone to throw to.
First off, the Titans were starting a rookie Vince Young, at quarterback (Yes, he was Rookie of the Year, but he was still a rookie) . Jeff Fisher is an intelligent coach--he wasn't going to put the focus on his brand new franchise quarterback. The Titans ran the ball about half the time and had the fifth lowest passing attempts in the NFL. And Vince Young finished with the worst completion percentage in the NFL, at 51.5% (and I wonder how he's going to do now that his top two receivers have gone elsewhere?)
Secondly, as I mentioned yesterday, Wade added a lot of value to the Titans. He contributed 11.1 DPAR, which was 1.5 more than the Vikings leading receiver. The reason he was able to do so was because of what he did with his limited receptions. His 14.9% DVOA was the 19th best in the NFL. Both of these totals were better than Drew Bennett's, who had 6.6 DPAR and -4.5% DVOA. Wade even has a decent catch percentage, as he hauled in 57% of the passes thrown to him, which puts him somewhere in the middle of the pack for wide receivers. For example, he would have been behind Travis Taylor (65%) but ahead of Marcus Robinson (50%) on the Vikings last year. When using that stat, one must also remember that it does not attempt to decide where the fault for the incompletion lies, and Wade was playing with the most inaccurate quarterback in the NFL.
So while Wade's statistics may not be all that impressive by themselves, when taken in context, they show a receiver who will be an upgrade over any of the wide outs from last season. His addition is a good first step for the Vikings as they attempt to provide Tarvaris Jackson with someone to throw to.
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