This Thing Still On?

What? Brett Favre skipped off season workouts and Training Camp and everyone welcomed him with open arms (well...not everyone, but you know what I'm saying).

So it's been a while. Since May apparently. One of the biggest keys to running a blog is definitely to continue to write. You lose your posting groove and suddenly it's August 21st and you haven't posted since May. And, yes, I blame my lack of motivation on Brett Favre. (In fact, if I were you, I'd be prepared to read a lot of posts that blame Brett Favre this year--that man is going to get no mercy from me. I might be willing to give him credit where credit is due, but he will receive no quarter and no mercy when he plays poorly.)

Big Daddy Drew puts the way I feel the best. This season isn't going to be very fun. Success will be Favre's (and I hate Favre. Hate. Hate. Hate. Doesn't matter that he's in Purple. Even if I'm rooting for laundry, I'm not going to root for the laundry he's wearing.) and failure (which, since the Purple sold their soul to get Favre, is anything that doesn't involve a Super Bowl trophy) will be the Vikings'. So yeah. Good times.

The thing is, I was just starting to talk myself into Sage Rosenfels (or as I like to call him, Trent Dilfer Jr.). His stats looked good against Indianapolis (You be quiet with your "they weren't playing their starters"--if I wanted to be reasonable, I wouldn't have been talking myself into Rosenfels). And even more importantly, I was excited for the Vikings' defense to be at full strength. Remember how good the Purple's defense was last year (Football Outsiders had them as the 4th best defense in the NFL)? Remember how they were that good despite missing their Pro Bowl middle linebacker for the entire season? Remember how their starting safety missed the first seven games and their Pro Bowl nose tackle missed the last two games and the playoff game? And remember how none of those players are hurt at the moment (barring the resolution to the Williams' Suspension Trials). The Vikings defense is going to be ridiculous this year. They're going to chew offenses up and spit them out. I don't have the skills to properly describe what they're capable of doing, but if I did, it'd be roughly equivalent to multiplying the destructive force of the Mega Bear and the Mega Lion.

And then, of course, there's the offense, which, not including Brett Favre, should be ridiculously fun. Can you say offensive weapons? Because I can, and I'm pronouncing it "Purple Jesus, Chester Taylor, Percy Harvin, Bernard Berrian and Visanthe Shiancoe". Really, the big question marks are where they were last year--under center and everyone to the right of Steve Hutchinson. Except that, unlike last year, the Vikings were actually proactive, drafting Phil Loadholt and acquiring two new quarterbacks (ahem).

Honestly, if it weren't for the whole Brett Favre thing, I'd be ridiculously excited for the upcoming season. So, I'm mainly planning on pretending that's not Favre under center (it'll be hard, I know) and focusing my rube excitment on the Purple People Eaters v. 2 and the weapons surrounding QB #4. And if John Sullivan or Phil Loadholt blow an assignment and Favre gets knocked out for the season, well, those things happen, you know?

Let's Drag This Out A Bit

So, apparently Childress did not go to Mississippi yesterday. Which is good, because I much prefer this drag out as long as possible. Making a decision is for people that don’t enjoy the game as much Favre does.

A couple more thoughts:

• If I believed Favre would be willing to step into the “game manager” role as quarterback, I might be a little more ok with this. But I don't. Favre doesn't just want to win--he wants to be the reason for the victory. Favre averaged 32.6 passes a game last year, and he’s only had one year where he averaged less than 31 attempts a game. He’s also notorious for being a “gun slinger” that tries to “make plays”. And he threw a league leading 22 interceptions last year. You do the math.

• One positive thing that would happen if Favre signs and Childress shifts the focus of the offense to the passing game—less wear and tear on Adrian Peterson. Peterson had 383 attempts last year (including the playoff game), and, as we all know, running backs break if you use them too much. Favre 32.6 passes a game came despite having Thomas Jones in the backfield with him. Jones was one of the most effective backs in the league last year, rushing for 1312 yards on only 290 carries while racking up the 5th most DYAR among running backs and the 7th best DVOA. His DYAR and DVOA were both better than Peterson's.

• I can’t believe that people are actually worried that Favre’s decision to play is motivated by revenge instead of his “love of the game”. I’m really going to hate this season.

Killing Time: Please Don't Let This Happen

So Brad Childress is well on his way to Mississippi to meet with Favre. Blerckkkk

I still have hope though (which, if you combined with 3 parts cynicism and 2 parts bitterness gives you exactly what you need to root for the Vikings). They're going to make demands of the Ol' Gunslinger. Unreasonable ones at that. And by unreasonable, I mean, demands that any other human being would find perfectly reasonable, like the requirement that he get in shape, come to voluntary team activities to learn the offense and generally act like a member of the team. So maybe Favre will turn down Childress. I mean, if anyone can out stubborn Favre, it's got to be Childress, right? Right?? Please???

More on Favre:

• Big Daddy Drew perfectly sums up every Vikings fan's feelings on what's about to happen.

• More lamentations from the Daily Norseman.

• Cold, Hard Football Facts points out the statistical reasons for Favre to play one more year (That's right folks--he could break Jim Marshall's consecutive start streak this year, while wearing a Vikings' jersey. If this happens, I will no longer care if the Vikings move to L.A.)

• Kevin Seifert and Scouts, Inc. chime in on ESPN. (H/T Grant's Tomb)
  

• Michael Lombardi doesn't understand why the Vikings are willing to put up with Favre's attitude when they weren't willing to put up with Jay Cutler's (excuse me while I slam my head into a door to dull the pain).

• Don Banks calls the whole situation "sad and pathetic". And he's right.
  

Ugh

Let's see here. Free agency wasn't exciting. The Vikings' draft class wasn't the type that puts a pep in your step (Do people actually say that, or did I just pull that out of nowhere?), mainly because I don't trust our coaching staff or quarterbacks to take advantage of the high risk/high reward players that were taken (not to mention the whole "hospitalization" thing that just happened to Percy Harvin). And now the Favre story is back.

Ugh.

Pacifist Viking thinks it's happening. Jason Winter shows why it's not a good idea. And I'm sitting here trying to decide which is less painful to think about--selling out to get a mediocre Favre in Purple (he's not the answer at QB this year anymore than Sage Rosenfels is) or the massive buzz kill that is the Twins bullpen (and the knowledge that the Twins' season is likely doomed for the same reason it was last year). At least it's not raining here in D.C.

Oh wait.

Opening Day and Thoughts On Cutler

"There is no sports event like Opening Day of baseball, the sense of beating back the forces of darkness and the National Football League."-George Vescey

It's Opening Day. Thankfully. Because the events of the past week have made the upcoming NFL season look a little less exciting. The Bears have a franchise quarterback for the first time in my lifetime, and, while it looks like the Vikings did not have a chance to get Jay Cutler once Matt Cassel was traded to the Chiefs, it's still disappointing to see him end up in the NFC North.

And yes, I know that Cutler is a horrible human being (because their love for Brett Favre shows the media's ability to judge character) , that he doesn't have the intangibles to make the playoffs (last I checked, football is the ultimate team game and his defense was about as bad as the Lions' last year) and that no quarterback that has every demanded a trade could possibly lead a team to the Super Bowl (Eli Manning and John Elway say hello). Doesn't matter to me. Jay Cutler is really, really, really good, he's 25, he made the Pro Bowl last year and he's going to spend at least the next 10 years running the Bears offense and running it well. Really, the only difference between this trade and the Jared Allen trade is one more first round pick, which pays for the two extra years of Cutler's career that will be played with the Bears.

So are the Bears going to win the Super Bowl next year? Probably not. As others have pointed out, Chicago's team is a little too old on defense and a little too shy of play makers on offense (though you'll be surprised how much better their offense is with a real quarterback). But the trade means that not only are they're going to be in contention for the NFC North again this year, but they're probably the favorites to win it and that's mainly because when their offense trots out onto the field, the guy under center is a Pro Bowler, not Tarvaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels.

Killing Time: No Cutler, No Nobody

The Broncos are insisting that Jay Cutler is not available for trade. Not really all that surprising (Let's be honest--there isn't a person in a front office position in any sport willing to take the risk of trading a 25 year old Pro Bowler under contract for three more years), but still disappointing. I guess it was a nice dream while it lasted.

And now that the dream has withered in the sun, the Vikings no longer have a chance to make a significant upgrade to their team via free agency. While they were busy pursuing Housh and Cutler (and resigning Jim Kleinsasser), almost every player they could have pursued signed somewhere else without even visiting Winter Park. And, if they're not careful, they might lose Matt Birk as well (though whether its a good idea to re-sign the 32 year old center is a whole other issue).

I liked that the Vikings' made a play for Housh and that they tried to trade for Cutler. And the Rosenfels trade does upgrade the quarterback position, even if it only brings it up to "slightly-below average". But the Vikings need to upgrade the right side of their offensive line, they need more depth at cornerback and defensive tackle and they need someone to return punts and possibly kicks (if they don't trust Darius Reynaud to stay healthy). And they haven't even hosted a single player that might address those needs.

It was obvious that the Vikings wouldn't be able to address all of their needs via free agency. But it was also obvious that they wouldn't be able to do so via the draft also (they just have too many needs). And at this point, it looks like the draft is the only option they have left, which means that, one year after a hugely successful foray into free agency, the Vikings failed to make any real improvements during free agency because they didn't try hard enough.

Contemplating a Move

Luft Krigare left a comment on Monday that has stuck with me since:

"To add to the negativity... LA could handle two teams sharing the Ed Roski dream of a stadium just like the Giants and Jets do (and maybe the 49'ers and Raiders in the future), so both the Chargers and Jaguars have got to relocate for the Vikings not to go to LA. But LA isn't the only landing spot, I could see London getting the team and suddenly they would be in a market bigger than New York."

So what if the Vikings' move is inevitable? What if, after 50 years in Minnesota, the Purple and Gold pack up their gear and follow the original Purple and Gold west to L.A. or follow the original Vikings to England? What do we do then?

I mean, I don't live in Minnesota anymore. I've been to two home games in the past four years, and I watch most of the games at a bar. Where the Vikings play their games really shouldn't matter too much to me. I could easily pull a Lietch and just continue following the team that I've been rooting for most of my life. That seems reasonable, right? Except, it just seems so wrong. For whatever sociological reason, people root for teams they have ties too. I'm from Minnesota-I root for the Twins, Vikings, Timberwolves and Gophers (most of the time-see my next sentence). I went to Georgetown, which means I root for the Hoyas, who, thankfully, finally won another game. My reasons are no different than most people's (you always have your bandwagon fans, or folks who have no geographic connection, but latched on and stayed on). So what happens when the Vikings sever my tie to them?

Now, I'll be honest-I'm a Vikings' fan first and a football fan second. I'm not going to just follow the NFL or pick a new team if I stop rooting for the Purple (mainly because I'm not going to forgive Mr. Goodell and his cronies if they move and I can't handle it). So what happens then? No more NFL?

I just don't know if I can give up watching the NFL. But I don't want to be like Leitch and just follow a team after it rips apart the basis for my relationship with it. It's almost like contemplating how you would handle a close friend or relative dying (hyperbole, I know, but still)--you just can't know ahead of time. Which means that 2011 and 2012 are going to be a boat load of fun.

That's probably enough negativity for one off season (unless the Vikings sign Favre--then all bets are off). Which means it's time to start thinking about how the Purple can improve for next year, something they need to do if they want to bring home a championship before things get ugly. Tomorrow we start with an overview of the Vikings' needs.

Killing Time: Mindsets and Carter's Future

• The first thing I thought of when NBC flashed the statistic that the Steelers had blown one eleven point lead in the past twenty years was that it meant they were going to lose. When I mentioned that, however, the Steelers fan looked more amused then "Oh-my-God-you're-right-I'm-going-to-vomit", which is the look that kind of comment would get from a Vikings fan in such an important game (as opposed to the resigned understanding "Yup" that would be the response from a Vikings fan during your average regular season game). Of course, when your team has blown only one lead of more than eleven points in two decades, a lack of fear is probably not all that unreasonable. And I think that difference in reaction, in and of itself, is more than enough to demonstrate the differences in the success of the two franchises.

• Chris Carter is going to continue to get screwed by the Hall of Fame voters, according to Michael David Smith. That's awesome. The man had 171 catches over 20 yards in his career (which means he's a possession reciever, obviously), retired with the second most receiving yards, had the best hands in the game and caught touchdowns like they were going out of style. So it makes perfect sense to keep him out of the Hall for a decade or so of his eligibility . I mean, that's why it took Mickey Mantle 10 yecars to get in to baseball's Hall of Fame, right? He was only the second or third best center fielder ever, so he had to languish. Oh wait- he got in on the first ballot. You know you're doing something wrong when baseball's Hall of Fame, which has an electorate that has never elected a player unanimously, changed its mind on Jim Rice after 10 years and doesn't understand that Bert Blyleven is a Hall of Famer, looks reasonable and well thought out in comparison.

Thoughts from a Super Bowl Weekend

• I think it was fitting that the touchdown that beat the Cardinals came on a pass caught in the right corner of the end zone by a receiver falling out of bounds. I hope their radio guy started screaming "Noooooooooooo" the second he saw the ref's hands go up. (And I was rooting for the Cardinals too--ahhh bitterness, my old friend.)

• There isn't a receiver in the league that could make the catch Larry Fitzgerald made for his first touchdown, nor is there a receiver on the Vikings that could have made the catch Santonio? Holmes made to win the game. Sidney Rice has the potential to be that kind of presence in the end zone, but he didn't make the step he was supposed to this year, due to injuries. He'll also have a lot of opportunities to catch passes that are poorly thrown if the Purple don't bring in a real quarterback (and no, Brett Favre is not an option, as Gonzo so clearly articulated at the Daily Norseman).

• Every time Ben Roethlisburger dropped back, it seemed like he was going to get sacked. I can't count the number of times I'd shift forward in my seat, unconsciously anticipating the Cardinals getting to him, only to see him move to the on spot in the pocket he could go (or break out of the pocket). Roethlisburger isn't exactly fast, quick or any of those other words that imply speed either, which, usually isn't as big a deal for him because he uses his size and strength to get away. But last night it was all about his mobility and being able to sense where he had to move to avoid the rush. Its a tired cliche to say that a team couldn't have done what it did without a certain player, but I think its true of this year's Steelers, whose line was a sieve. Roethlisburger was the only quarterback that could have had the success he did with this team, because while some quarterbacks have that pocket mobility (like Peyton Manning) and others have the ability to throw on the run, no other quarterback I've seen had the strength, size accuracy while moving and pocket presence to handle the pressure the Steelers line allowed. Basically, what I'm saying is that I want a quarterback like that in Purple.

• If those were the best officials the NFL has, this league is in trouble, because the officiating was about as bad as it could be shy of blatant physical errors (like an inadvertent whistle) or making up rules (like when Matt Hasselbeck got called for an illegal hit below the knee while trying to tackle the Steeler who had intercepted him in Super Bowl XL). I still can't believe Kurt Warner's fumble that ended the game wasn't, at the very least, reviewed (and I'm mad we were denied what could have been a ridiculous ending with Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Bolden and Troy Polamalu all going for a jump ball Hail Mary). Most of the penalties seemed to be touch penalties (although the holding penalties were usually spot on), including a 15 yard face mask on Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (one of these days, I'd like to see a player with the ball get called for a face mask) and a 15 yard roughing the passer penalty on the Cardinals in the third quarter that was the kind of penalty that leads to a pass rusher not tackling the quarterback because he's worried that the quarterback has already thrown the ball. Take away 30 yards of penalties on that drive, and who knows if the Steelers actually get in field goal range.

• I'm happy Randall McDaniel got in, but if you're looking for a reason why few people care about football history in the way that people care about baseball history, its the fact that Chris Carter has now been passed over twice for the Hall of Fame. If the second best person to ever play a position was on the ballot in baseball, the controversy would be over why 5% of the electorate didn't vote for them, instead of why they got passed over twice while two players (who are likely Hall of Famers, but weren't as good) that played the same position got in instead. Chris Carter retired with the 3rd most receiving yards, the 2nd most receptions and the 2nd most touchdowns. He accomplished all of that with Rich Gannon, Jim McMahon, a 39 and 40 year old Warren Moon, Brad Johnson, Randall Cunningham, Jeff George and Daunte Culpepper as the Vikings' quarterbacks.

• And, because I wouldn't be a Vikings fan if I didn't end a Super Bowl post with negativity, I think its become clear that Vikings fans should probably just accept the fact that the only way the Purple will still be in Minnesota after their lease with the Metrodome runs out is if the Chargers or Jaguars beat them to L.A. There's no way they're getting public funding for a new stadium any time soon (nor should they when the state is laying off thousands of workers to balance its budget), and since Zygi's not going to pay for it himself (and Roger Goodall is clearly against his teams paying for their own stadiums) that means that unless another team moves to L.A., the Vikings are going to. So they really need to find a good quarterback in the next year or two so they can actually having a shot at winning a Super Bowl before they move.
  

• And one last bit of negativity--I'd be willing to bet that the Purple are the only team to have three former coordinators win Super Bowls without the head coach they worked under taking a team to the Super Bowl.
  

5 Quick Thoughts on The End

I'll have a lot more on the game in the next few days, but I wanted to get in a few quick thoughts (five, to be exact) on the Vikings' playoff loss and what it means for the team going into the off season.

• There's nothing more frustrating than watching Eric Beinami quiz Adrian Peterson on protection schemes on the side line when the Vikings are facing 3rd and short (or really, any passing down). I don't know if Childress pulls Peterson because he doesn't know how to block, because Peterson doesn't want to block, because he doesn't trust him to catch the ball or because he's being stubborn and trying to prove something. Whatever the reason, it's frustrating watching the Purple's best weapon watch on 3rd down instead of being on the field. At the very least, Childress should keep him out there WITH Chester Taylor every once in a while. Line him up in the slot. Put Taylor and Peterson in the backfield with Tarvaris. Doesn't really matter--just make sure that defenses have to worry about him on 3rd down.

• I know a lot of folks are clamoring for Leslie Frazier to replace Brad Childress. I'm not sure I'm on board with that. I'm definitely on board with Childress being replaced (though I doubt it will happen), as I think we just saw the Vikings' hit their ceiling under Childress, but settling on the in house choice isn't necessarily the right thing to do. I think Frazier's the easy choice because he has a lot of similarities to Mike Tomlin and Tony Dungy, but that doesn't make him the right choice to succeed Childress. It doesn't make him the wrong choice either--I'd just hope that if (when) Childress is fired, that Zygi does a very, very, very thorough search for a replacement. By all accounts, he failed to do that when he chose Childress, and look where that got us. So maybe Frazier's the right choice. Maybe he's not (Umm...Leslie? You might want to adjust your coverage so that the 10 yard hook over the middle isn't open every single play). I just want Zygi to consider all the options before he hires a new coach.

• Speaking of coaching, you may have noticed that the Vikings played well in the first half (aside from the pick six) and poorly in the second half. Guess which team made the proper adjustments and which one didn't? (And what, exactly, was going on during the Vikings last drive of the half? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?)

• The Vikings had a very productive off season last year. They seriously upgraded their talent level. First off, Jared Allen is a beast. A beast. Bernard Berrian is also a very good wide receiver, and was clearly the best on the team. And Madieu Williams was a very solid safety. He wasn't a huge play maker, but he also wasn't getting toasted every other play like his predecessor (I'm still not sure how, exactly, Dwight Smith fell for that double move by Devin Hester. Somethings might never be explained). If they can be as successful bringing in a new quarterback and some secondary and offensive line help this year, they're going to be very, very good next year.

• Three quick, bitter thoughts: Hey Brian Dawkins--way to lead with your head. Classy. Donovan? Please don't dance. And DeSean Jackson? You don't get to talk trash to the opposing coach immediately after stepping out of bounds to avoid getting hit by the punter.
  

Thanks For Nothing Green Bay

Way to choke away a victory against da Bears. Next time, please put a little more effort into it. Maybe, instead of getting the game winning kick blocked by a lineman's face, you might try getting a little more loft on it and forcing them to jump in order to block it.

Just a thought.

(Also, I feel dirty for having cheered for the Packers. Seriously unclean. The kind of unclean that no amount of hot water and soap can handle.)

And in case you're wondering, the Vikings have no chance of making the playoffs, unless Andre Johnson and/or Steve Slaton go off against da Bears and lead the Texans to victory. Though I'm sure they'll make it seem like they're going, up until they fail to win and da Bears return a fumbled snap for a game winning touchdown or something equally ridiculous.

Does anyone out there actually believe the Purple will make the playoffs this year? Can you tell me why? Because I don't, and I could really use some cheering up.

Another Clincher, Another Let Down

You know, I should be mad. I should be furious at the Vikings inability to hold onto the football. I should be seething that the Purple threw away yet another opportunity to win a game and threw their first chance at clinching the division and any chance at getting a first round bye along with it. But I'm not. I just can't get mad about an outcome I fully expected. And really, as the Star Tribune pointed out on Sunday, the Vikings haven't fulfilled their expectations since the second round game against the Cardinals in 1999 (Also, I'd like to thank the Star Tribune for dredging up that memory for me and in the process messing with the good juju that was surrounding the team. Now go die in fire).

There was a lot to like about this game. The Purple held Atlanta's backs to 3.37 yards per carry, despite the absence of Pat Williams (though you could tell they needed to adjust to life without him during the first drive of the game). Tarvaris Jackson outplayed Matt Ryan, up until he had to run a two minute drill. Brad Childress learned from the Tennessee game and went for it on fourth down in the fourth quarter. Visanthe Shiancoe had the best receiving game by a tight end since Steve Jordan (I'm going to assume that Steve Jordan had a 100 yard receiving game, since he has 6 spots in the top ten for single season receiving yards by a Vikings' tight end, and no one else had one before Pro-Football-Reference ran out of game logs). The Falcons didn't score a touchdown returning a punt (And, now I'm reaching).

But you know what? None of it matters because, at this point in the season, it's all about wins. Nice games by everyone who didn't fumble aren't enough. It is inexcusable for the Vikings to fumble the ball seven times. SEVEN TIMES. Every time I read an article about the game, and it mentions Tarvaris Jackson's three fumbles, my first reaction is "That's not fair--one was Adrian Peterson's fault". Think about that for a second. Yup. Even if you take away a fumble from Tarvaris, he still had TWO FUMBLES. And even with one of his fumbles being credited to Tarvaris, Peterson still had TWO FUMBLES. I'm not saying that Brad Childress should be fired if he doesn't make Tarvaris and Adrian carry around a football with a bounty on it like James Caan made Omar Epps in The Program but, he should be fired if he doesn't make Tarvaris and Adrian carry around a football with a bounty on it like James Caan made Omar Epps in The Program.

And the worst part about the loss? They're the Vikings, and they like to find new and inventive ways to torture their fans, so they've decided to force us to root for the Packers tonight. And I know, it hurts, but does anyone actually trust this team to beat the Giants on Sunday? Even if they aren't playing their starters? I know I don't. So....

GO PACKERS

Now excuse me while I try and convince an angel to show me what my life would be like if I had never heard of the Minnesota Vikings and the National Football League.

DO NOT WANT

I knew it would come to this. I knew it. This season is the most anticipated season since 1999 for the Purple, and Brett Favre has to go and drag the Vikings into his Green and Gold mess. This is not ok.

I do not want Brett Favre in Purple, plain and simple. I literally cannot think of a worse thing for a sports team to do to its fan base (except for the Red Sox somehow acquiring Derek Jeter prior to 2004, though I think this is worse, because of how much more important the quarterback position is to a football team). His acquisition would ruin my enjoyment of the season (I prefer my celebrations to be more spontaneous and less nostalgic) and would almost certainly prevent the Vikings from winning a Super Bowl in the foreseeable future.

That's right-the Vikings cannot win the Super Bowl with Brett Favre as their quarterback. Favre was at his best when he had a coach that can rein him in. That's why he was good under Holmgren, and that's why he was pretty good under Mike McCarthy. Under McCarthy, however, you could see Favre start to revert back to "gunslinger" mode. Old habits die hard, and they're especially hard to break when you are skipping offseason workouts and training camps because you're too busy being a prima donna and debating whether or not to retire. That second point is particularly important now (and why the Packers smartly gave him a March deadline this year), considering that he'd have to come in and learn a new offense with the Purple. And the first point? Does anyone actually think Childress (or anyone, really-this point isn't meant to be a knock on Childress) could rein in the Interception King's ego and get him to buy into the system after all of this crap so far, and all of the "Savior of the Vikings" crap that the media would spew out if he joined the Purple?

Despite all of that, acquiring Favre might not have been the worst idea in the history of the franchise (which is still probably the Herschel Walker trade) if it wasn't guaranteed to wreck this Vikings' team chances of ever winning the Super Bowl. When you consider the age of some of the key players, the Purple probably have a 2-3 year window to win the Super Bowl before they take a step back (I'm not saying they'll spiral out of control like the Dennis Green era did, because this team is too well managed, but they'll likely go from a Super Bowl contender to a playoff contender). If the Vikings bring in Favre, he'll self destruct the same way he has in every playoffs since 1996 and then, just like he's done the last three years, he'll pull the same "I might retire, maybe, but I won't tell you in a reasonable amount of time and I certainly won't practice because I'm THE GUNSLINGER" schtick and the Vikings will be stuck, just like the Packers have been, unable to move forward with Tarvaris Jackson (who won't get any better sitting behind a quarterback that refuses to mentor young quarterbacks) and figure out if Tarvaris is the answer in time to get another quarterback before the team takes a step back.

And none of that factors in the nausea that seeing Favre in Purple would cause, which is just another reason that the Vikings should stay far, far away from him. Of course that means he's somehow going to end up on the Vikings. I don't know how, but I know, because that's the kind of thing this team does.

[I'm back...sorry about the long break between posts. There'll be a new post tomorrow, and pretty much every weekday from here through the end of the season.]

Surprising Consistency

Gonzo over at Daily Norseman wrote an interesting post on the Vikings' consistency that was both enlightening and left me with some questions as well. As he points out, the Vikings' are tied for the fifth most winning seasons and the fifth most wins since the merger.

I have to admit--I was surprised to find that the Vikings were that successful. Of course, I missed the glory years under Bud Grant, but I've still seen some good teams, and I still wouldn't have guessed the Vikings were that good.

The reason, I think, is that we underestimate how hard it is to be really good in the NFL. As the chart shows, the Vikings have spent most of their time right around .500, finishing better than two games above .500 12 times in their history, the same number of times they've finished below .500.

That's what makes the consistency so striking--they've finished .500 or better almost 75% of the time and been "very good" (more than 2 games above .500) more than 25% of the time. Only four teams (the Steelers, 49ers, Cowboys and Dolphins) have been "very good" more often than the Vikings since the Purple entered the league (the Cowboys have been "very good" a whopping 21 times in the last 47 years).

So why was I so surprised to see the Vikings' that high up since the merger? I think there are three reasons--the first being that almost all of the seasons that the Vikings' were "very good" happened before I turned ten. The second is that I underestimated how hard it is to be average and above average consistently. Finishing one game above .500 isn't all that impressive during the year, but doing it as many times as the Vikings have in their history is. The same is true of finishing .500. And the final reason? They haven't won a Super Bowl. That's something every other franchise with a winning record has done, except the Browns and Jaguars (the Jags and Eagles are the only other teams with winning records since the merger that haven't won a Super Bowl). And there's the rub--the Vikings have been one of the best franchises in the NFL since their inception, but their resume is still missing a championship, and until they get one, they'll never be thought of as one of the best.

It Was a Nice Thought--SI Dooms Vikings to Miss Playoffs

That's right, in a manner eerily reminiscent of Peter King's prediction for the 2005 season, Paul Zimmerman, Dr. Z himself, has picked the Vikings to go to the Super Bowl this year. Color me unexcited.

You may remember what happened after King's prediction set the land of Purple abuzz with dreams of the Super Bowl--the Vikings started out 2-5 and Daunte Culpepper began ruining his legacy as the second best Vikings' quarterback ever by throwing interception after interception and then got hurt and burned every bridge he could on his way out of town. Also, Mike Tice ended up getting fired at the end of the year even after the Purple finished 7-2. And there was that whole "Love Boat" thing. So yeah, sorry if I'm not excited about Dr. Z picking the Vikings to make the Super Bowl.

Of course, Peter King's choice came after what was probably the worst offseason in the Vikings' history. The Vikings traded Randy Moss for the 7th overall choice and Napolean Harris, used their first round choices on Troy Williamson and Erasmus James, along with a whole host of other players that also failed to last more than three years in Purple and signed Fred Smoot. That's a lot of mistakes. Thankfully, the Vikings did make one move that didn't hurt the team, signing Darren Sharper, who may have single handily prevented the 2005 offseason from being the worst ever.

In comparison, Dr. Z's pick comes after what looks like a good offseason for the Purple. Jared Allen is no Fred Smoot (hopefully) and was a much better player than Smoot was with his first team. Bernard Berrian is much more likely to upgrade the receiving corps than Troy Williamson was, and while Madieu Williams may not quite have the same track record as Darren Sharper, he should still be as big an upgrade over Dwight Smith as Sharper was over Brian Russell. Oh, and the Vikings didn't trade away the most talented wide receiver in the league.

That being said, the only reason King was wrong was because he evaluated the Vikings' offseason moves incorrectly. His three other reasons for choosing the Vikings-- that the Eagles (a better team) couldn't keep winning, because they had an easier route to home field than his two other favorites (the Eagles and Panthers) and because the NFC Champion had been in the middle of the pack the previous year--all applied to the eventual NFC Champion Seattle Seahawks.

So while I don't think Dr. Z is wrong about the Vikings' offseason moves, or about Tarvaris Jackson's ability to step up and be a decent quarterback, his pick still scares me, because I didn't think King's reasoning was all that flawed at the time. If Dr. Z is wrong about the Purple's offseason? Well, let's just say that this next offseason will likely be as tumultuous as the 2006 offseason was.

It's Not Over, But It's Over

I'm not going to analyze this game. It was too depressing. Too many things went wrong, mostly because of stupid mistakes that the Vikings should not have made. And then, right when it seemed like the tide was turning and the Vikings had recovered a fumbled snap, well, there's nothing like having a review saddle you with a "12 men on the field" penalty to end any thought of a comeback.

After games like today, well, it's hard not to compare rooting for the Vikings with being in an abusive relationship. The Purple always seem to draw you in, show you the good times, make you think that they've changed and then they just smack you around.

Well, moving on....

I'd like to wish everyone a Merry Christmas (if that's your thing) and I hope yall enjoy the holiday--don't let the Purple get you down.