Thoughts on QB #4's Debut (and the Vikings)

I watched the NFL Network replay of the first half of the DEBUT OF QB #4 (I've decided, for my own sanity, to only refer to him as QB #4, kind of like how NCAA video games work, or how NBA video games never had Michael Jordan, but always had #23 on the Bulls). I do have to say, it got me excited for the season. And not because QB #4 looked like a guy whose first NFL workout (and practice) was on Tuesday. Luckily, he has lots of time before the season starts (Oh wait). A few other thoughts:

• The pass rush looked dominant today. Which is especially amazing because neither Pat Williams or Jared Allen suited up. Fred Evans had a couple of plays where he just pushed the Chiefs center into Cassel, and Robison and Edwards both did a good job on the edge. Defensive line depth is a huge part of a successful defense, and it looks like the Vikings are deep in the front four. Sweet.

• E.J. Henderson looks like the stud I remember and Chad Greenway matched him play for play. They paired up to force a field goal in the first quarter with two great plays in the first quarter. On 1st Down, the Chiefs handed off to Larry Johnson going off tackle. E.J. shed a block in the middle of the field and closed (and when I say "closed", I mean he he beat LJ to the spot he was going) to meet Johnson at the line of scrimmage for no gain. After a 9 yard gain on a pass play, Greenway slipped through the line (and I rewound the play three times and still didn't see the line in the hole he got through) and stuffed LJ for no gain on 3rd and 1, forcing the Chiefs to kick a field goal. Let's see here. Stud defensive linemen. Quality depth behind the studs. And Stud Linebackers? The Vikings are going to be fun to watch on defensive this year.

• Percy Harvin looks like he's going to be dangerous. I'm not sure if he's going to be, but he really looks like he can be. Harvin is Purple Jesus fast. And he had a nice catch with two Chiefs draped all over him for QB #4's only completion. If Harvin turns out to be as dangerous as he looks, the offense could be one of the best in the NFL, assuming the quarterback play is up to par.

• Tarvaris Jackson had good stats, but most of them came after the Chiefs' first teamers came out. He threw off his back foot under pressure, made a horrible decision to throw a pass 4 yards past the line of scrimmage despite having lots of room to run and generally looked a lot like the Tarvaris Jackson from last year--good enough to allow the Vikings to win games, but not in the playoffs.

• Naufahu Tahi is awful. He can't block (he missed a block on the Chief that tackled Peterson on 4th and 1 on the Vikings' first drive), he can't run routes (it was as much his fault as QB #4's that the Vikings' first pass play was an incompletion) and even if he does catch the ball, he's not going to get any yards after the catch. I can't believe the Vikings can't find a better fullback then him, because he's not an NFL caliber player.

Congrats Antoine (and Kevin, Pat, Adrian, Jared and Steve)

It's the Pro Bowl, and it really doesn't matter if you're snubbed, but congratulations are in order to Kevin Williams, Adrian Peterson and Antoine Winfield for being named as Pro Bowl starters, and to Jared Allen, Pat Williams and Steve Hutchinson for making the team.

And I have to say, the voters got their Vikings right. Winfield has deserved to go for a few years now and its nice to see him finally get the recognition he's earned (and he's really backed up my decision to purchase his jersey after Randy Moss was traded). The Williams and Purple Jesus are obvious choices, as are Allen and Hutchinson. Really, the only other Viking that really deserved to be considered (and this isn't a knock, just a reflection of the high level of play necessary to deserve a Pro Bowl spot) was Chad Greenway and, while he's played really well, especially after the loss of E.J., he'll have ample opportunity to be named to the Pro Bowl in the future.

An Injury and the Implications

One of the things that the Saints do well is exploit Reggie Bush's ability to make things happen in space. Drew Brees has thrown Bush the ball forty times already this year and he's turned those passes into big plays, averaging 8.3 yards per catch and leading running backs in receiving DYAR and Effective Yards while racking up 257 yards and two touchdowns on 31 receptions.

The Vikings as a team, however, are normally well situated to shut down those passes. When a team has fast, sure tackling linebackers like Chad Greenway and E.J. Henderson and are able to get pressure without blitzing (which the Vikings kind of do), it's no surprise to see that they have a -6.1% DVOA against running backs in the passing game.

As I said, normally, I wouldn't worry too much about the Vikings' linebackers ability to shut down Reggie Bush, and, quite possibly, the rest of the Saints' offense with him. But that was before E.J. Henderson was unable to practice today due to his dislocated toes. Without Henderson, the Vikings are down to one Pro Bowl caliber linebacker in Greenway. He's been very good this year (remember, he's 5th in the NFL in tackles this year), but he'll be the only one on the field that can match up with Bush, making it that much harder to ensure the Vikings get the match up with Bush that they want. With Henderson on the field, it provided the margin of error that any good defense needs in play calling. Now, it's just that much easier for the Saints to get the match up they want, which means it's that much easier Reggie Bush to break that big play the Vikings need to avoid if they want to win. And at 1-3, the last thing the Vikings want is something making it easier for their opponents to win.

Killing Time: More Reasons to Fire Childress and Other Thoughts

A few more thoughts on Childress and other things, now that the Vikings are a quarter of the way through their games:

• Under Brad Childress, the Vikings are 3-8 against playoff teams. What makes that record even worse than it appears is that all three of their wins required some kind of fluke. Matt Hasselbeck got hurt during their win against Seattle in 2006 and Chester Taylor set a franchise record with a 96 yard touchdown run. Their win over San Diego featured Adrian Peterson setting the NFL record for rushing in a game. And Eli Manning threw x picks, x of which were returned for touchdowns, in their win over the Giants last year. Against winning teams, the Purple are 4-9 under Brad Childress and 1-1 this year (and their two losses to the Colts and Packers will likely qualify at the end of the year). This isn't a case of the Vikings being inconsistent-this is a case of the Vikings being unable to beat a good team unless something crazy happens. That's not good enough for a team this talented or for a franchise that plans on winning a Super Bowl.

• Despite not rushing for 100 yards the last two games, Adrian Peterson is only two yards behind Michael Turner for the NFL rushing lead. Larry Johnson, who has 415 yards, is the only other running back with more than 400 yards. Peterson's been a lot more consistent, however, and has been successful against more than just the worst rush defenses. Michael Turner has amassed 324 of his 422 yards (76.7%) against Kansas City and Detroit, who are 27th and 32nd in rushing DVOA, and was held to 42 yards by Tampa Bay, who is 3rd in rushing DVOA and 56 yards by the Carolina Panthers, who are 19th in rushing DVOA. Peterson has faced the 29th (Packers), 25th (Colts), 19th (Panthers) and 6th (Titans), while rushing for 438 yards, but he has yet to be shut down in a game like Turner has been twice and his best two games only account for 62.6% of his yards. Larry Johnson has been erratic, like Turner, only rushing for 22 yards against the Raiders (21st in rushing DVOA) and 74 against the Patriots (26th) while racking up 319 of his 415 yards (76.8%) against Atlanta (15th) and Denver (10th).
  

• Chad Greenway is 5th in the NFL in tackles, with 34, only 7 behind Dhani Jones, who leads the league.

• Adrian Peterson needs to average 131.6 yards per game over the last 12 games in order to accomplish his goal of rushing for 2000 yards. If he kept up his average of 5.1 yards per carry, he would need 308 carries to get the 1580 yards he needs. That would also mean he had the fourth most carries this decade, behind Larry Johnson in 2006 (416 carries), Eddie George in 2000 (403) and Ricky Williams in 2003 (397). None of them made it to 1000 yards the next year.

The Sweet Smell of Victory

A few more thoughts after the Vikings' first win:

• It was big touchdown catch, but I still don't trust Visanthe Shiancoe's ability to catch. Maybe because he also let a a sure first down bounce off of his chest earlier in the game.
  

• In 18 career starts, Tarvaris Jackson has only thrown for more than 200 yards four times. Gus Frerotte did so in his first start.
  

• I didn't mention him in the Three Stars post, but Chad Greenway continues to live up to his first round potential. Dr. Z gave him some love in his Power Rankings last week, and Greenway showed why against the Panthers, racking up 9 tackles and a sack that forced Jake Delholmme to fumble, killing a Panthers' drive that started in Minnesota territory.

• I didn't think the Heath Farwell injury was that big a deal when I found out about it. The Vikings' inability to cover kickoffs and punts has proven me wrong. His loss has been a huge loss to the coverage teams and the Panthers took advantage of it, averaging 29.2 yards per return on kickoff and averaging 10 yards on punt returns. The Vikings are currently allowing the 10th most yards per kick return and the 3rd most yards per punt return. That's especially bad considering the Vikings are a defense and run oriented team--field position is especially important to them.

• In that vein, the Vikings need to cut down on the penalties. They've been penalized 20 times already, for 147 yards (that's the 9th most penalties for a team). They do not have the kind of offense that can overcome a lot of penalties, as shown on Sunday, when they lost a touchdown and two drives to penalties.

• The odds of the Vikings making the playoffs prior to Sunday was a little worse than 1 in 8 (11.7%). With the victory, they more than doubled their chances and now have a little worse than 1 in 4 chance to make the postseason (22.4%). If they beat the Titans, they'll have about a 1 in 3 chance of making the playoffs (33.4%), while a loss would drop them down to 1 in 7 again. So, once again, the Vikings' game on Sunday is approaching a must win (though, to be fair, the Chargers went 11-5 and won their division after a 1-3 start last year, so it's not the end of the world if they lose).