Cornerbacks and The Window

As I've been saying, the Vikings need to do everything they can to win now, because while they have Super Bowl caliber players throughout their roster, they won't have them for long. Their window of opportunity is starting to close.

Now, I know that the Vikings have a host of young stars--Visanthe Shaincoe, Kevin Williams, E.J. Henderson and Bernard Berrian turn 29 this season, Madieu Williams turns 28, and Jared Allen, Adrian Peterson, Chad Greenway and Brian Robison are all going to be 27 or younger. The Purple's roster has a young core that is supremely talented.

Here's the thing though--it's not enough to just have a good core if you want to win the Super Bowl. You need to have depth and you need to be very good at almost every position. And there are some key positions that the Vikings are not going to be good enough at if they don't act this off season, specifically cornerback. First off, if nothing is done between now and the beginning of free agency next year, the Vikings are going to lose both Cedric Griffin and Antoine Winfield, since both are unrestricted free agents after this year.

Secondly, while Antoine Winfield's play was clearly good enough to get him into the Pro Bowl this year, he's also turning 32 this year. While he might be the type of player that can continue to play at a high level into his thirties, he might not be, which means that committing to him long term at 33 years old is risky, especially if the Vikings are going to be counting on him to be their top corner.

Finally, I'm not even sure that losing Cedric Griffin is that big of a deal. While he played well in spurts this year, he hasn't shown that he can be counted on as the Vikings' second corner, let alone their top corner. In fact, I'd be a lot happier with the secondary if he was the nickleback, instead of a starter.

Luckily for the Purple, there are some options out there. There are two top corners who are unrestricted free agents: Nnamdi Asomugha of the Raiders, who is generally considered the best cornerback (if not the best defensive player) in the NFL and Dunta Robinson, of the Texans, who returned from knee and hamstring injuries five games into last year and proved that he was still an elite cornerback. Of course, both Asomugha and Robinson are likely to remain with their teams, with the Raiders franchising Asomugha (what, you think he'd resign with them? He's not stupid) and Robinson either signing a long term deal or getting franchised. If either of them makes it through to the free agency period, the Vikings should do what they can to bring in a young shutdown corner to pair with Winfield next year and take over from him as he gets older.

If not, they'll be in a good position to pick up a corner in the first round of the draft. D.J. Moore of Vanderbilt, Vontae Davis of Illinois and Sean Smith of Utah all look like they might be available to the Purple with their 22nd pick (and I'll be previewing all three of them in the run up to the draft). We saw what a rookie corner can do this year, as Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Mike Jenkins, Antoine Cason and Aqib Talib all contributed to their teams after being picked in the first round last year. The right choice could provide the Vikings' with a shut down corner for years to come.

But no matter how they do it, the Vikings need to bring in a quality cornerback this off season, because if they don't, they'll be forced to scramble next off season to replace or resign their starters, and if they fail, they'll have allowed their young star's window of opportunity to shut through their inaction.

Killing Time: Antoine's Joy, Tarvaris' Award and Best Rookie QB Ever?

Antoine Winfield talks about making the Pro Bowl for the first time. I have to say, his selection actually makes me care about who made the team--I am legitimately happy for him (and he'll always be my favorite on the team because he's backed up my purchase of his jersey).

Football Outsiders breaks down the Vikings win over the Cardinals and advocate starting Tarvaris through the rest of the year. Which isn't surprising, considering that Tarvaris has more DYAR in 4 games (168) than Gus Frerotte has in 11, which says something, considering it's a cumulative stat and not a rate stat (though Tarvaris' DYAR is a lot better than Gus' as well). They also advocate bringing in Gus if the Purple fall behind by multiple scores, an idea I can't get behind. Frerotte is too immobile and has too much trouble with anything except the deep ball to make him a viable "White Horse" candidate. He's not going to be successful against a team that knows he's trying to go deep and has adjusted their coverage (and started blitzing) accordingly. And it's not like Frerotte ever won NFC Offensive Player of the Week while he was starting.

Pro Football Reference on Matt Ryan's historic rookie season (when you're getting compared to Dan Marino, the word "historic" is appropriate). I'll have more on this tomorrow, but this Falcons team is legit--they're not a fluke like the Cardinals. They are a legitimate playoff contender, and they know that this is a must win game for them. Sunday is going to be a tough game for the Purple, and that's even before the loss of Pat Williams is factored in.

Congrats Antoine (and Kevin, Pat, Adrian, Jared and Steve)

It's the Pro Bowl, and it really doesn't matter if you're snubbed, but congratulations are in order to Kevin Williams, Adrian Peterson and Antoine Winfield for being named as Pro Bowl starters, and to Jared Allen, Pat Williams and Steve Hutchinson for making the team.

And I have to say, the voters got their Vikings right. Winfield has deserved to go for a few years now and its nice to see him finally get the recognition he's earned (and he's really backed up my decision to purchase his jersey after Randy Moss was traded). The Williams and Purple Jesus are obvious choices, as are Allen and Hutchinson. Really, the only other Viking that really deserved to be considered (and this isn't a knock, just a reflection of the high level of play necessary to deserve a Pro Bowl spot) was Chad Greenway and, while he's played really well, especially after the loss of E.J., he'll have ample opportunity to be named to the Pro Bowl in the future.

Killing Time: Lions Week!

It's Lions Week now! You know what that means--the Vikings get to play one of the worst teams in the NFL! Whooooooooooooo!!!!

Yes, I'm excited for the Lions to turn the ball over 5 times, let Adrian Peterson run for 150 yards and for the Vikings to get back to .500. How about you? While we're waiting for the inevitable blowout, let's see what's going on around these here internets.

• Antoine Winfield--Defensive Player of the Week. Winfield has unquestionably been the Vikings' Defensive MVP so far this year and it's not unreasonable to believe he's the overall MVP either. That snow storm that kept Winfield here until he signed was a God send--I hope it gets a bonus at some point. Jon Kitna and Kevin Seifert agree--Winfield is one of the best cornerbacks in the league (buying his jersey was definitely one my best decisions).
  

• It's all the more important that Winfield continue to play like this, now that E.J. Henderson is out for the season. Kevin Seifert has a short, but good piece on how important E.J. Henderson is to the Purple's defense. He's right--E.J. Henderson might have been the best player on the defense, which says a lot when you consider that defense includes the Williams, Antoine Winfield and Jared Allen. Ben Leber and Chad Greenway are going to have to step up, or the defense is going to run into some serious problems.
  

• According to Football Outsiders, the Vikings have a 25.3% chance of making the playoffs this year, up from 24.0% before Monday night's game. History tells us that 19.4% of 2-3 teams have made the playoffs in a 17 week season, but that doesn't factor in talent, performance or the remaining schedule. History also tells us that if the Vikings beat the Lions, they'll have a 40.0% chance of making the playoffs, but if they lose to the Lions, they'll only have a 8.7% chance of making it. That last number, of course, does not factor in the likely improvement Leslie Frazier would bring as head coach.

• Speaking of stats, Smarter Statistics argues for the use of advanced statistics in the NFL.

• Advanced NFL Stats has the Win Probability graph from Monday night's game. Unsurprisingly, it looks like a cardiograph.
  

Three Stars: Back in the Hunt

(Thoughts on the First Half , Third Quarter and Fourth Quarter are below.)

A lot of good games from Vikings tonight. Tyrell Johnson had his first quality game, recovering a fumble, picking off the final pass and defending a few passes. I'm not really sure what he was doing with that lateral though. Ben Leber more than stepped up as a pass defender, blanketing Devery Henderson and making an acrobatic interception in the Red Zone. Gus Frerotte had decent stats, completing 53% of his 36 pass attempts for 222 yards and a touchdown, but he had a fumble and I just feel like that his completion percentage and yardage would have been lower if it hadn't been for some great catches by his wide receivers (including a one handed grab by Berrian on a ball thrown behind him and directly to a defender). And Childress felt that he'd rather call a halfback pass than trust Frerotte in the Red Zone in the Second Quarter after Frerotte had already gone three and out that drive (and had been bailed out by a penalty).

In the end, the Vikings' didn't really deserve to win this game. But you know what? The Colts didn't really deserve to win in Week 2 either. These things even out. And now the Purple are 2-3, tied for second in the division and control their own destiny in the division race (which is hugely important, what with the NFC East looking so good so far).

So, without further ado, the Three Stars:

Third Star: Ryan Longwell

As a general rule of thumb, I like to reward the guy who makes the game winning play (don't worry, Bernard Berrian is in here). And Longwell was able to do what Martin Gramatica could not--make the game winning field goal (true, his attempt was a lot shorter, but I bet he would have made the kick Gramatica missed). Add in a 33 yarder in the Second Quarter and a 53 yard field goal in the First Quarter, which is tied for the third longest of Longwell's career and you have a star worthy performance from one of the most underrated kickers in the NFL.

Second Star: Bernard Berrian

The Saints still stacked the box with 8 and 9 guys throughout the game. But Berrian made them pay, catching two under thrown deep balls on the Vikings' game tying drive, including the game tying touchdown. He also drew the pass interference penalty that got the Vikings into field goal range. Berrian's 110 receiving yards make him the first Viking with 100+ receiving yards in a game since Troy Williamson had 102 yards receiving against the Panthers in Week 2 of 2006 (that's right--the Vikings had 34 straight games without a receiver catching 100 yards). This is why the Vikings signed Berrian--to create a deep game even if the quarterback can't throw a catchable deep ball. And today he showed that he can do it.

First Star: Antoine Winfield

Let's see here--8 tackles, one sack, one fumble forced and recovered and a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown (the first ever by a Viking in the regular season). Not a bad days work for Winfield. With so many stars on the defense, Winfield tends to get lost, but Winfield is second to none when it comes to big plays and it's no coincidence that he scored a touchdown in both of the Vikings' wins.

First Half Thoughts

The Vikings have no right to be in this game at the half, let alone leading by ten points. And yet, they're up 20-10 and I'm having flashbacks to the game against the Giants in 2005 when the Vikings returned an interception, a punt and a kickoff for a touchdown, were leading at the half despite having negative offensive yards and held on to win 24-21. It's been that kind of crazy so far.

• The Refs have been absolutely horrible tonight. I'm going to guess that Ed Hochilli and his crew won't be referring any playoff games. They've messed up calls on holds, fumbles, face masks. receptions and pretty much every other call they could. So far, the poor officiating has gone the Vikings' way (and likely is the reason the Purple had the opportunity to be up at the half), but still--these refs have been awful and it's detracting from the game.

• Antoine Winfield is a beast. He's got the touchdown, he's got the sack and fumble recovery, but perhaps the most impressive play was where he ducked underneath the fullback and tackled Reggie Bush for a loss. From the normal sideline, it looked like Bush had tripped on Winfield. From the other sideline, however, it was clear--Winfield avoided the block and made an amazing play.

• The Vikings have done a great job of getting pressure on Drew Brees. They've only sacked him once, but they've been in his face all half. The defensive line (nice to see you again Jared Allen) has gotten pressure without blitzes and Leslie Frazier has called some innovative blitzes that have worked almost perfectly.

• I wish Brad Childress used Adrian Peterson in the passing game the same way the Saints use Reggie Bush. A game like this one would be a perfect time for it, what with the Vikings' offensive line forgetting how to run block. Some swing passes, a screen or two--when the running game isn't working, especially when it isn't working on the edges, the Vikings need to use the passing game to get Peterson the ball in space rather than just continue slamming him into the defensive line. The worst part though, is that Childress doesn't even leave Peterson in on passing plays, removing defenses' need to account for him in their play calling and reactions.
  

• Gus Frerrotte might be a better quarterback than Tarvaris Jackson, but he's not a good quarterback. Some of his throws are just as inexplicably inaccurate as Tarvaris' were.
  

Three Stars: First Victory

This post is a lot harder to write after a win. But you know what? I can't say I mind too much. The Vikings first win featured, as all wins do, many outstanding individual performances, especially on the defensive side of the ball. And in a game in which Steve Smith was expected to destroy the Vikings and the Panthers' offense, particularly their running game, had been so successful even without Smith, it was only fitting that all three stars go to defensive players.

So while Adrian Peterson averaged over 4.5 yards per carry on a bad hamstring, he's not going to crack the top three players this week. The same goes for Bernard Berrian, who lead the Vikings in receiving, caught his first deep pass and looked like the deep threat he was supposed to be. Berrian fails to crack the top three because his inability to haul in a deep pass led to the Vikings' only turnover. And while Gus Frerrotte calmed the offense down in the second half and he was the first Viking to crack 200 yards passing, his performance wasn't anything special (except in comparison with Tarvaris' first two games). He still missed open recievers, took three sacks and generally put together an average game. With the defense dominating in the way it did, it was enough to win. It wasn't enough to crack the Three Stars though.

Third Star: Kevin Williams

The lighter of the two Williams had another dominating game, racking up six tackles while helping keep the Panthers and their running game under 50 yards for the game. He also had two crucial sacks while keeping Jake Delhomme under constant pressure. Both sacks came when it mattered, as his first came on final drive of the first half and his second came on 4th and 27 with under 3 minutes to go in the game and basically ended whatever hope the Panthers might have had of coming back.

Second Star: E.J. Henderson

Twelve tackles, three for a loss, one quarterback hurry and one flying, highlight reel tackle. Just another game for one of the best middle linebackers in the game and the leader of the best run stopping defense in the game. What else can you say, except that, in a defense full of playmakers, E.J. Henderson has moved his way to the top of the list of Vikings defenders worth paying to see?

First Star: Antoine Winfield

There's no question that the biggest play of the game was Antoine Winfield's blitz that forced a Jake Delholmme fumble that Winfield returned for a touchdown. Steve Smith was open on the play, Delholmme knew it, Smith knew it, and who knows what might have happened if Winfield hadn't gotten to Delholmme? The best case scenario would have had the Vikings' going into the locker down a touchdown. The worst case scenario would have had them down two touchdowns and staring at a loss likely to end their playoff hopes. Because of Winfield, however, the Vikings' didn't have to worry about the various scenarios that might have played out if Delholmme had gotten the pass off. Instead they went into the locker room tied, with all of the momentum going their way. And the capitalized on that momentum, holding the Panthers scoreless in the second half and giving the offense a chance, which they capitalized on, to take the lead on the first drive of the second half. Without Winfield's play, none of that happens. Really, without Winfield's play, the Vikings' fall to 3-0. And that's why Winfield's the First Star this week.

Pray for Interceptions

One of the Vikings strengths this year has been their ability to make big, momentum changing plays. They're currently second in the NFL with a +14 big play differential, and have had 30 big plays so far this season, also the second most. Of those 30 big plays, almost all of them have been made by the defense, which, considering how inert the Vikings pass game is, is not all that surprising.

The Vikings are going to need both their defense and their passing game to make big plays if they hope to upset the Chargers on Sunday. Defensively, the Vikings best hopes for a turnover will come when Philip Rivers drops back to pass. Rivers has ten turnovers so far this year, having thrown seven interceptions and lost three fumbles. He's also had two of his fumbles recovered by the Chargers as well. If the Vikings can get pressure on him, he'll give them the ball. The fact Cory Withrow will be playing for the Chargers will help the Vikings' pass rush, but if Antoine Winfield isn't on the field, it will probably be a moot point anyway, as he's one of the few defenders that the Vikings count on to help stop both the run and the pass.

The Vikings' defense isn't really likely to be what it decides the game, however, just like it hasn't been the deciding factor in any game so far this year (except for the Atlanta game). What it will come down to is the Vikings' ability to move the ball on offense, which means it will come down to their ability to pass the ball. The Tarvaris Revolution cannot be held down, and he'll be starting on Sunday.

And you know what? Contrary to what I said earlier this week, Tarvaris Jackson should be starting every game that he is healthy enough to play in. The Vikings are not making the playoffs this year, so it doesn't matter whether Kelly Holcomb or Brooks Bollinger gives the Vikings a (slightly) better chance to win. What matters is gathering enough information on Tarvaris to find out whether he is the quarterback of the future. If he's not, he's not, and the Vikings will have ample opportunity to find the quarterback of the future in the draft. If he starts hitting open receivers and learns when to take off, then he is. Either way, nine games of the Tarvaris Revolution should give the Vikings all the information they need to make the decision.

[If you're interested, Football Outsiders has a nice breakdown of the play that resulted in Visanthe Shiancoe's first touchdown catch for the Vikings]

3 Stars in Dallas

Even though the Vikings let another winnable game slip through their fingers, that doesn't mean there weren't stand outs. Of course, the standouts tend not to stand out as much in games like Sunday's. There were a number of players, like Ben Leber, who made a nice play, but didn't really do anything else notable. Leber made a nice pitch to spring Cedric Griffin for a touchdown after recovering a fumble, but only had six tackles. Keneci Udeze is another example, notching his third sack of the year, and causing a fumble the Kevin Williams returned for a touchdown (ignoring the holding penalty on Ray Edwards).

But enough about those who came close to joining the ranks of the stars--let's talk about the real three stars:

3rd Star: Adrian Peterson

He didn't perform a miracle today, but he still had a nice game, aside from the fumble that removed any doubt about the outcome of the game. He had almost 40% of the Vikings' offensive yards, rushing for 63 yards on 12 carries and catching a pass for 12 yards. He also had converted a key fourth down on the drive that lead to the Vikings' only offensive touchdown, which, of course, he scored, on a twenty yard run. Averaging 5.25 yards/carry and scoring a touchdown against one of the better rush defenses in the NFL is nothing to be ashamed of. The fact that it seems like an off day for the Purple Jesus says something about both the expectations surrounding him and what he's been able to accomplish in the Vikings' first five games.

2nd Star: Antoine Winfield

Winfield had another big game for the Vikings today, making eight tackles (tied for the second most) and causing the fumble that almost won the game for the Vikings. One of the most frustrating things about this team's inability to win is the fact that the defense is continually making game changing plays, like the one Antoine Winfield made, turning a nice Dallas drive at the end of the half into seven points and the lead for the Purple. There a few plays that can shift the momentum as much as the play Antoine Winfield made and it was wasted by the Vikings.

1st Star: Cedric Griffin

Griffin had five tackles yesterday but that's not why he's the first star. He's the first star because he took a lateral from Ben Leber, fumbled it, picked it back up and then high stepped his way into the end zone. Just a ridiculous play. If you haven't seen it, the video is right here--the high stepping alone would have been amazing, but the fact that Griffin managed to fumble the ball on his own and then recover? Awesome.

3 Stars: Frustration

The Vikings were so, so close to ruining Favre's party. And that's why I'm so frustrated. The refs took away what should have been a fumble return for a touchdown and turned it into an incompletion on a drive the Packers later scored on. Kelly Holcomb turned receivers open on deep routes into incomplete passes. And the Vikings turned what could have been a season changing victory into their third loss of the season and a party for every green and gold clad cheese head.

Unlike last Sunday, there are quite a few players worthy of being rewarded with a place in the three stars. Chad Greenway recovered two important fumbles in the fourth quarter (but only one was ruled a fumble). Bobby Wade had 83 yards receiving, including a 40 yard catch that set up the Vikings second field goal. Brian Robison picked up his third sack of the year and Dwight Smith forced a fumble at the goal line that prevented a Packers touchdown. Kelly Holcomb was sacked four times and had numerous passes knocked down at the line...ummm, moving on... [Seriously folks, Kelly Holcomb is not the answer. He's immobile, inaccurate and holds onto the ball too long. When Tarvaris is healthy, he needs to be back as the starter.]

And now that I'm done complaining about Holcomb, let's talk about players that had the most impact on the game for the Vikings.

3rd Star: Sidney Rice

With all of the hype surrounding the Purple Jesus, the Vikings' second round draft pick hasn't gotten much publicity. That wasn't the case on Sunday, as he hauled in six passes for 75 yards and his first career touchdown. And what a touchdown catch it was. The pass was under thrown, but that didn't faze Rice, who pulled it in off the defender's back. Rice wasn't able to haul in a deep ball early in the game, he more than made up for it with that touchdown catch. Today was the first day we got to see Rice's talent and it was good to see.

2nd Star: Antoine Winfield

Antoine Winfield made the play of the game when he drilled Korey Hall, forcing him to fumble the ball two steps after he had caught it. Of course, the referee blew the play dead as an incompletion, but we won't go into that. Winfield led the team in tackles, racking up 10, and also prevented Donald Driver from getting into the end zone, holding him to only 58 yards receiving.

1st Star: Adrian Peterson

Once again, Peterson was quite simply the best player on the field. He didn't get into the end zone, but he rushed for 112 yards on only 12 carries, including a 55 yard run where he carried Nick Collins 15 yards leaving Collins on the field in a heap. the Purple Jesus is now second in the NFL in rushing and has Luckily for the Packers, he only had two carries in the second half. He still managed to make an impact, however, as he returned a kickoff 51 yards to answer a Packers drive that had put them up 16-9. It was only fitting that on a day where the greatest Vikings running back was honored, the next great Viking running back put on a show.