First Half Thoughts

The Vikings have no right to be in this game at the half, let alone leading by ten points. And yet, they're up 20-10 and I'm having flashbacks to the game against the Giants in 2005 when the Vikings returned an interception, a punt and a kickoff for a touchdown, were leading at the half despite having negative offensive yards and held on to win 24-21. It's been that kind of crazy so far.

• The Refs have been absolutely horrible tonight. I'm going to guess that Ed Hochilli and his crew won't be referring any playoff games. They've messed up calls on holds, fumbles, face masks. receptions and pretty much every other call they could. So far, the poor officiating has gone the Vikings' way (and likely is the reason the Purple had the opportunity to be up at the half), but still--these refs have been awful and it's detracting from the game.

• Antoine Winfield is a beast. He's got the touchdown, he's got the sack and fumble recovery, but perhaps the most impressive play was where he ducked underneath the fullback and tackled Reggie Bush for a loss. From the normal sideline, it looked like Bush had tripped on Winfield. From the other sideline, however, it was clear--Winfield avoided the block and made an amazing play.

• The Vikings have done a great job of getting pressure on Drew Brees. They've only sacked him once, but they've been in his face all half. The defensive line (nice to see you again Jared Allen) has gotten pressure without blitzes and Leslie Frazier has called some innovative blitzes that have worked almost perfectly.

• I wish Brad Childress used Adrian Peterson in the passing game the same way the Saints use Reggie Bush. A game like this one would be a perfect time for it, what with the Vikings' offensive line forgetting how to run block. Some swing passes, a screen or two--when the running game isn't working, especially when it isn't working on the edges, the Vikings need to use the passing game to get Peterson the ball in space rather than just continue slamming him into the defensive line. The worst part though, is that Childress doesn't even leave Peterson in on passing plays, removing defenses' need to account for him in their play calling and reactions.
  

• Gus Frerrotte might be a better quarterback than Tarvaris Jackson, but he's not a good quarterback. Some of his throws are just as inexplicably inaccurate as Tarvaris' were.
  

The Sweet Smell of Victory

A few more thoughts after the Vikings' first win:

• It was big touchdown catch, but I still don't trust Visanthe Shiancoe's ability to catch. Maybe because he also let a a sure first down bounce off of his chest earlier in the game.
  

• In 18 career starts, Tarvaris Jackson has only thrown for more than 200 yards four times. Gus Frerotte did so in his first start.
  

• I didn't mention him in the Three Stars post, but Chad Greenway continues to live up to his first round potential. Dr. Z gave him some love in his Power Rankings last week, and Greenway showed why against the Panthers, racking up 9 tackles and a sack that forced Jake Delholmme to fumble, killing a Panthers' drive that started in Minnesota territory.

• I didn't think the Heath Farwell injury was that big a deal when I found out about it. The Vikings' inability to cover kickoffs and punts has proven me wrong. His loss has been a huge loss to the coverage teams and the Panthers took advantage of it, averaging 29.2 yards per return on kickoff and averaging 10 yards on punt returns. The Vikings are currently allowing the 10th most yards per kick return and the 3rd most yards per punt return. That's especially bad considering the Vikings are a defense and run oriented team--field position is especially important to them.

• In that vein, the Vikings need to cut down on the penalties. They've been penalized 20 times already, for 147 yards (that's the 9th most penalties for a team). They do not have the kind of offense that can overcome a lot of penalties, as shown on Sunday, when they lost a touchdown and two drives to penalties.

• The odds of the Vikings making the playoffs prior to Sunday was a little worse than 1 in 8 (11.7%). With the victory, they more than doubled their chances and now have a little worse than 1 in 4 chance to make the postseason (22.4%). If they beat the Titans, they'll have about a 1 in 3 chance of making the playoffs (33.4%), while a loss would drop them down to 1 in 7 again. So, once again, the Vikings' game on Sunday is approaching a must win (though, to be fair, the Chargers went 11-5 and won their division after a 1-3 start last year, so it's not the end of the world if they lose).

Killing Time: Fallout from the End of the Tarvaris Revolution

Fallout from the end of the Tarvaris Revolution:

• Tarvaris' failure has shaken Brad Childress' confidence (and no, I don't think that's a bad thing--maybe it will lead to him reassessing his awful playcalling).
• Gonzo and Jason Winters are shocked that Childress would actually make the change after his hard headness this offseason.
• Cold, Hard Football Facts point out the large knife sticking out of Tarvaris' back.
• Player reactions.

Playcalling issues:
I still believe Tarvaris' development was hurt by his coaches. Would it have turned him into Jay Cutler? Probably not, but better coaching on fundamentals and better play calling could have been the difference between 0-2 and 2-0. The predictability of the Vikings' offensive game plan is pathetic, and not something that should be a problem for a third year head coach with an offensive background.

Advanced NFL Stats and Smart Football both have pieces on the negative effect of predictable playcalling.

Injuries:
Sydney Rice and Bernard Berrian are both battling injuries right now. Bryant McKinnie is still out for two more games. Tarvaris wasn't able to overcome his top two receivers being dinged up. Will Frerotte? (Probably not. Why couldn't the Vikings get a real backup quarterback?)

And that doesn't even factor in the injury to Madieu Williams, who might not have made the same mistakes rookie Tyrell Johnson has made that have lead to multiple deep completions.

And sadly, Visanthe Shiancoe is not injured, nor will he be on the inactive list.

Power Rankings:
After falling to 0-2, the Vikings continued to fall in the power rankings. They've dropped from just outside of the top ten to inside the top twenty and now, are outside of the top twenty with an average of 20.2. A win over the Panthers, who have an average rank of 7th, would certainly help the Vikings' move up, but don't expect them to get near their preseason ranking unless they go on a winning streak.

1. Cold, Hard Football Facts.com (19)
2. Foxsports.com (19)
3. ESPN.com (21)
4. CBSsportsline.com (22)
5. Dr. Z's rankings on CNNSI.com (20)

Sunday:
People are already talking about the Panthers as one of the best teams in the NFL, which is no surprise after going 2-0 against the Chargers and Bears. The interesting thing, is, according to Football Outsiders, the Vikings have a higher overall DVOA. The Panthers have higher DVOA on offense, but they're only ranked 15th, while the Vikings are 18th. Defensively, the Purple have played better, and are ranked 11th, with a -5.8% DVOA, while the Panthers have a positive DVOA (you want a negative DVOA defensively), and are 17th overall.

Then again, Steve Smith is going to be playing for the first time on Sunday, and he'll be fired up (his family is even going to be there). I fully expect him to torch Cedric Griffin like he did Fred Smoot, if Leslie Frazier makes the mistake of not keeping Antoine Winfield on Smith all game long.

Frerotte Ends the Tarvaris Revolution

It's official--the Tarvaris Revolution is over. Gus Frerotte will be starting on Sunday for the Vikings and will, most likely, be the starter for the rest of the year. It's not a surprise, what with Tarvaris completing only 50.8% of his passes and averaging only 4.4 yards per pass attempt. I'm not sure this is the right decision (I really do think that 75% of the blame for the pathetic passing game lies on Childress and the receivers' shoulders), but in the end, if the Vikings don't beat the Panthers, they aren't going to the playoffs, and no matter what Zygi's said about Childress' job security, he's gone if the Vikings don't make the playoffs (and he should be). And to be fair, it's not like Tarvaris did anything to keep the job in the first two games.

Things I like about this decision:

• Frerotte's has averaged 6.02 yards per pass attempt for his career
  
• Frerotte's has a really low sack rate, which, at 6.0%, is lower than Tarvaris' 6.7% sack rate. That means he's not going to force the Vikings into a lot of 2nd/3rd and long situations like Brooks Bollinger (11.8% career sack rate) and Kelly Holcomb (7.4% career sack rate, 13.1% sack rate last year) did.
  

Reasons why the Vikings should have traded for Sage Rosenfels to be the backup:

• Frerotte averaged only 5.37 yards per attempt last year, which is worse than Tarvaris' 5.88 yards per attempt average last year.
• Frerotte cannot scramble--he has 308 rushing yards in 136 games.
• Frerotte's career completion percentage is 54.2%, which is lower than Tarvaris' 57.1%, and he completed only 56.3% of his passes last year.
  

Overthinking Tarvaris

As you probably noticed, Peter King prominently featured Tarvaris Jackson in his latest MMQB column and, after reading it, I have to say, I'm still feel pretty much exactly way I did about the way the Vikings handled the quarterback position this off season as I did before.

Unlike last year, it wasn't unreasonable for the Purple to decide on Tarvaris Jackson as their starter. The alternatives were too expensive (and too risky), and as King pointed out,

"Before I spoke with Jackson, I looked at his bio and his game-by-game numbers from last year. This stunned me: In the final seven games last year, when Jackson and the Vikings went 5-2, he completed 65.2 percent of his passes. Look at these game by completion accuracy numbers, in percentages: 77, 83, 75, 64, 62, 61 and 52. The biggest thing he had to do after his career at Division I-AA Alabama State was work on accuracy (in his three seasons there, he completed 51, 52 and 61 percent of his throws, respectively) and knowledge of the pro game."

So he was getting better as he got more comfortable. That makes sense to me. You could see the same thing in the way he played against the Broncos and during the Purple's winning streak--he was finally making the adjustment to the speed of the NFL that rookies have to make (and he was a rookie in spirit, if not in name). Apparently, he's also done really well in the recent practices, something both Robert Ferguson and Steve Hutchinson pointed out to King (and both players have played with Pro Bowl quarterbacks).

But here's the thing. He might have completed a high percentage of his passes in his last few games, but he was also quite horrible in the last two games that really mattered in the season, throwing 3 interceptions against da Bears and 2 against the Redskins. I also distinctly remember a jump pass occurring against da Bears, something I will hopefully never see again.

And, once again, there isn't a backup plan. Now, I'm not a huge Gus Frerotte fan, but he was a decent backup the last time he was wearing Purple. That was also four years ago. He's 37 now--does anyone really think he can do a good enough job under center to allow the Vikings to win a game? John David Booty is what he is--a developmental quarterback that's likely to wash out of the NFL within a few years, like most quarterbacks drafted on the second day. Sage Rosenfels was available, and the Vikings almost pulled the trigger, and, well, they really should have, especially if King is right that the Vikings "would have put the efficient Rosenfels in competition with Jackson, and Rosenfels likely would have won the job". Nothing against Rosenfels, who was a solid QB in limited time last year, but if he can beat out your starting quarterback, that's a problem. Of course, that doesn't mean that King is right about Rosenfels winning the job from Jackson (I read King for his sources, not his football analysis or his writing), but still, it's disheartening to hear.

So yeah, we're basically right back to where we started prior to King's column. Tarvaris has the potential to be a good enough quarterback for the Vikings to go deep into the playoffs. He's shown the ability in flashes, last year was his first year as a starter, the Vikings' went 8-4 when he played, etc. That doesn't mean he will though. As Tarvaris himself put it,

"I know what people are saying,'' he told me. " 'The Vikings have a great defense, the best running back in the league, a great offensive line ... what about the quarterback?' The quarterback position -- every day of your life you're under the microscope anyway. I understand that. I'm very confident in my growth as a player in this system. But I know what's going on. People don't have any reason NOT to ask that question about me.''

Links: New Schedule, Draft News and Gus Ferrotte

With the draft next Saturday, there's been a lot going on in the world of the NFL. The schedule was released on Tuesday to the kind of fanfare that was meant to remind you that the NFL is the undisputed king of sports. ESPN spent two hours breaking down the schedule, picking out games to watch, making predictions about teams strength of schedule and generally wasting everyone's time. I understand blogs about NFL teams and NFL focused sites writing about the schedule. But a two hour special on ESPN!? There wasn't a baseball game they could show? Or maybe some more draft speculation? What about the Strong Man Competition? Do they still have the rights to that? Seriously folks, trying to divine any meaning from the NFL schedule right now is pretty much a waste of time. I'm not the only one that feels that way either.

And now that I've trashed those who wrote about the schedule, if you want some thoughts on it, Gonzo broke it down at the Daily Norseman, wwtb? wrote about it at Pacifist Viking, and the writers at Access Vikings spilled some pixels analyzing it as well.

(And if you're wondering, I think the Vikings' schedule looks rough to start with, has some challenges in the middle and gets easy at the end. I fully expect them to be in the drivers seat for a playoff berth or division title coming down the stretch. And I fully expect them to blow it. They're finishing 1-2 or 0-3 if they have a shot at the playoffs. It's what the Vikings do.)

For those who prefer reading about something that is actually relevant sometime soon, there are a host of articles on the draft, and, of course, a ton of mock drafts.

Michael Lombardi, who is described in his bio at SI.com as a veteran of 22 years in NFL personnel offices, has an interesting article on how teams actually look to mock drafts for information. It's kind of crazy to think that without them, Jerry Rice may have spent his Hall of Fame career in a different uniform.

Pro Football Talk has an article about how teams are changing the tables they use to assign draft picks value due to the rising costs of top 5 draft picks. Those value tables are a large reason why there have been so few teams willing to trade up, as they assigned values to top picks that no team was willing to pay. I don't know whether the new tables will lead to more trades, but it certainly seems to make them more likely.

For those of you who would like to see the Vikings take a quarterback in the first three rounds, Football Outsiders has an interesting article on Chad Henne. Personnally, I don't think it would be a good idea to draft a quarterback that high, but as Gonzo wrote, it's probably a given that the Purple will draft a quarterback.

I probably shouldn't tell you this, since I've been relying on these videos for my own profiles, but if you're interested, SI.com has video of their top 200 draft prospects.

There's also been some new (negative) information that's come out recently about players the Vikings might be considering drafting in the first round. Malcolm Kelly ran an awful 4.63 forty at his workout, and then threw the Oklahoma staff under the bus, though he's going to have another work out. And Aqib Talib and Mario Manningham didn't help their draft prospects by admitting to smoking pot in college, which is why I didn't end up profiling either of them.

L.A. has a new stadium proposal. If L.A. builds a new stadium, it's not going to look good for the Vikings chances of staying in Minnesota, unless they get a new stadium build. That being said, Grant's Tomb thinks that the Purple aren't going anywhere. Which works for me.

Finally, the Vikings signed Gus Frerotte to be their back up quarterback. The ideal back up quarterback for a young starter, like Tarvaris Jackson, is a veteran that is content with the role, can mentor the young quarterbacks on the roster and can step in and provide decent play for a game or two. Frerotte's got the first two down, but his play on the field will likely be Bollinger/Holcombe bad. So, not the best signing, but since neither Sage Rosenfels or J.P. Lohsman are available, he was probably the best available option.