This Thing Still On?

What? Brett Favre skipped off season workouts and Training Camp and everyone welcomed him with open arms (well...not everyone, but you know what I'm saying).

So it's been a while. Since May apparently. One of the biggest keys to running a blog is definitely to continue to write. You lose your posting groove and suddenly it's August 21st and you haven't posted since May. And, yes, I blame my lack of motivation on Brett Favre. (In fact, if I were you, I'd be prepared to read a lot of posts that blame Brett Favre this year--that man is going to get no mercy from me. I might be willing to give him credit where credit is due, but he will receive no quarter and no mercy when he plays poorly.)

Big Daddy Drew puts the way I feel the best. This season isn't going to be very fun. Success will be Favre's (and I hate Favre. Hate. Hate. Hate. Doesn't matter that he's in Purple. Even if I'm rooting for laundry, I'm not going to root for the laundry he's wearing.) and failure (which, since the Purple sold their soul to get Favre, is anything that doesn't involve a Super Bowl trophy) will be the Vikings'. So yeah. Good times.

The thing is, I was just starting to talk myself into Sage Rosenfels (or as I like to call him, Trent Dilfer Jr.). His stats looked good against Indianapolis (You be quiet with your "they weren't playing their starters"--if I wanted to be reasonable, I wouldn't have been talking myself into Rosenfels). And even more importantly, I was excited for the Vikings' defense to be at full strength. Remember how good the Purple's defense was last year (Football Outsiders had them as the 4th best defense in the NFL)? Remember how they were that good despite missing their Pro Bowl middle linebacker for the entire season? Remember how their starting safety missed the first seven games and their Pro Bowl nose tackle missed the last two games and the playoff game? And remember how none of those players are hurt at the moment (barring the resolution to the Williams' Suspension Trials). The Vikings defense is going to be ridiculous this year. They're going to chew offenses up and spit them out. I don't have the skills to properly describe what they're capable of doing, but if I did, it'd be roughly equivalent to multiplying the destructive force of the Mega Bear and the Mega Lion.

And then, of course, there's the offense, which, not including Brett Favre, should be ridiculously fun. Can you say offensive weapons? Because I can, and I'm pronouncing it "Purple Jesus, Chester Taylor, Percy Harvin, Bernard Berrian and Visanthe Shiancoe". Really, the big question marks are where they were last year--under center and everyone to the right of Steve Hutchinson. Except that, unlike last year, the Vikings were actually proactive, drafting Phil Loadholt and acquiring two new quarterbacks (ahem).

Honestly, if it weren't for the whole Brett Favre thing, I'd be ridiculously excited for the upcoming season. So, I'm mainly planning on pretending that's not Favre under center (it'll be hard, I know) and focusing my rube excitment on the Purple People Eaters v. 2 and the weapons surrounding QB #4. And if John Sullivan or Phil Loadholt blow an assignment and Favre gets knocked out for the season, well, those things happen, you know?

Reusse Gets It Right

Reusse's column today perfectly expresses my expectations for how the Vikings' flirtation with Favre will play out and why.

Let's Drag This Out A Bit

So, apparently Childress did not go to Mississippi yesterday. Which is good, because I much prefer this drag out as long as possible. Making a decision is for people that don’t enjoy the game as much Favre does.

A couple more thoughts:

• If I believed Favre would be willing to step into the “game manager” role as quarterback, I might be a little more ok with this. But I don't. Favre doesn't just want to win--he wants to be the reason for the victory. Favre averaged 32.6 passes a game last year, and he’s only had one year where he averaged less than 31 attempts a game. He’s also notorious for being a “gun slinger” that tries to “make plays”. And he threw a league leading 22 interceptions last year. You do the math.

• One positive thing that would happen if Favre signs and Childress shifts the focus of the offense to the passing game—less wear and tear on Adrian Peterson. Peterson had 383 attempts last year (including the playoff game), and, as we all know, running backs break if you use them too much. Favre 32.6 passes a game came despite having Thomas Jones in the backfield with him. Jones was one of the most effective backs in the league last year, rushing for 1312 yards on only 290 carries while racking up the 5th most DYAR among running backs and the 7th best DVOA. His DYAR and DVOA were both better than Peterson's.

• I can’t believe that people are actually worried that Favre’s decision to play is motivated by revenge instead of his “love of the game”. I’m really going to hate this season.

Killing Time: Please Don't Let This Happen

So Brad Childress is well on his way to Mississippi to meet with Favre. Blerckkkk

I still have hope though (which, if you combined with 3 parts cynicism and 2 parts bitterness gives you exactly what you need to root for the Vikings). They're going to make demands of the Ol' Gunslinger. Unreasonable ones at that. And by unreasonable, I mean, demands that any other human being would find perfectly reasonable, like the requirement that he get in shape, come to voluntary team activities to learn the offense and generally act like a member of the team. So maybe Favre will turn down Childress. I mean, if anyone can out stubborn Favre, it's got to be Childress, right? Right?? Please???

More on Favre:

• Big Daddy Drew perfectly sums up every Vikings fan's feelings on what's about to happen.

• More lamentations from the Daily Norseman.

• Cold, Hard Football Facts points out the statistical reasons for Favre to play one more year (That's right folks--he could break Jim Marshall's consecutive start streak this year, while wearing a Vikings' jersey. If this happens, I will no longer care if the Vikings move to L.A.)

• Kevin Seifert and Scouts, Inc. chime in on ESPN. (H/T Grant's Tomb)
  

• Michael Lombardi doesn't understand why the Vikings are willing to put up with Favre's attitude when they weren't willing to put up with Jay Cutler's (excuse me while I slam my head into a door to dull the pain).

• Don Banks calls the whole situation "sad and pathetic". And he's right.
  

Ugh

Let's see here. Free agency wasn't exciting. The Vikings' draft class wasn't the type that puts a pep in your step (Do people actually say that, or did I just pull that out of nowhere?), mainly because I don't trust our coaching staff or quarterbacks to take advantage of the high risk/high reward players that were taken (not to mention the whole "hospitalization" thing that just happened to Percy Harvin). And now the Favre story is back.

Ugh.

Pacifist Viking thinks it's happening. Jason Winter shows why it's not a good idea. And I'm sitting here trying to decide which is less painful to think about--selling out to get a mediocre Favre in Purple (he's not the answer at QB this year anymore than Sage Rosenfels is) or the massive buzz kill that is the Twins bullpen (and the knowledge that the Twins' season is likely doomed for the same reason it was last year). At least it's not raining here in D.C.

Oh wait.

Killing Time: Quarterbacks, Free Agent WRs and Money Issues

I'm working on a bigger post for Jeff Garcia (who seems to be Vikings' fans other favorite choice to start at quarterback next year) similar to the one I wrote on Matt Cassel. For whatever reason, I'm not really all that excited about Garcia, despite the fact that he seems to still have it after playing well last year. More on that soon.

In other news:

• Brett Favre is trying to trick the Jets into releasing him by retiring and then coming back and wrecking their cap number and plans for the season. Remember folks, no one loves the game more than Favre, unless, of course, he's asked to put in work in the offseason (or run an offense the way his coach wants him too).

• Jason Winter (spelled his name right this time!) makes a case for acquiring Byron Leftwich to be the Vikings' starting quarterback next year. I don't think he's the answer though. He's too immobile (while his sack rate is only 5.4% for his career, it's been 7.7% and 9.4% the past two years in limited action), which really doesn't work well with a line that's bad at pass blocking (the Vikings were 28th in Adjusted Sack Rate) and a slow throwing motion (he had 6 fumbles in three games with Atlanta). He's also inaccurate (he only has one year where he completed 60% of his passes, and his career mark is only 58.6%), which Jason mentions in the comments.

• Michael Lombardi breaks down the wide receiver free agent class. If he's right about the quality of this class (or lack there of), the Vikings better hope that Sidney Rice makes the leap he was supposed to make last year. And they're also going to have to look elsewhere to find a decent punt returner.

• The Vikings are offering a lawaway plan for tickets. Pretty crazy, but if it keeps me from having to read stories about possible black outs every week, that's great.

• Kevin Seifert breaks down the cap situation for each of the four NFC North teams. It looks like there's going to be a lot of new additions in the division this year, because every team has a ton of cap room. Which is just another reason why the Vikings have to remain aggressive this offseason and continue to improve their roster.
  

Thoughts from a Super Bowl Weekend

• I think it was fitting that the touchdown that beat the Cardinals came on a pass caught in the right corner of the end zone by a receiver falling out of bounds. I hope their radio guy started screaming "Noooooooooooo" the second he saw the ref's hands go up. (And I was rooting for the Cardinals too--ahhh bitterness, my old friend.)

• There isn't a receiver in the league that could make the catch Larry Fitzgerald made for his first touchdown, nor is there a receiver on the Vikings that could have made the catch Santonio? Holmes made to win the game. Sidney Rice has the potential to be that kind of presence in the end zone, but he didn't make the step he was supposed to this year, due to injuries. He'll also have a lot of opportunities to catch passes that are poorly thrown if the Purple don't bring in a real quarterback (and no, Brett Favre is not an option, as Gonzo so clearly articulated at the Daily Norseman).

• Every time Ben Roethlisburger dropped back, it seemed like he was going to get sacked. I can't count the number of times I'd shift forward in my seat, unconsciously anticipating the Cardinals getting to him, only to see him move to the on spot in the pocket he could go (or break out of the pocket). Roethlisburger isn't exactly fast, quick or any of those other words that imply speed either, which, usually isn't as big a deal for him because he uses his size and strength to get away. But last night it was all about his mobility and being able to sense where he had to move to avoid the rush. Its a tired cliche to say that a team couldn't have done what it did without a certain player, but I think its true of this year's Steelers, whose line was a sieve. Roethlisburger was the only quarterback that could have had the success he did with this team, because while some quarterbacks have that pocket mobility (like Peyton Manning) and others have the ability to throw on the run, no other quarterback I've seen had the strength, size accuracy while moving and pocket presence to handle the pressure the Steelers line allowed. Basically, what I'm saying is that I want a quarterback like that in Purple.

• If those were the best officials the NFL has, this league is in trouble, because the officiating was about as bad as it could be shy of blatant physical errors (like an inadvertent whistle) or making up rules (like when Matt Hasselbeck got called for an illegal hit below the knee while trying to tackle the Steeler who had intercepted him in Super Bowl XL). I still can't believe Kurt Warner's fumble that ended the game wasn't, at the very least, reviewed (and I'm mad we were denied what could have been a ridiculous ending with Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Bolden and Troy Polamalu all going for a jump ball Hail Mary). Most of the penalties seemed to be touch penalties (although the holding penalties were usually spot on), including a 15 yard face mask on Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (one of these days, I'd like to see a player with the ball get called for a face mask) and a 15 yard roughing the passer penalty on the Cardinals in the third quarter that was the kind of penalty that leads to a pass rusher not tackling the quarterback because he's worried that the quarterback has already thrown the ball. Take away 30 yards of penalties on that drive, and who knows if the Steelers actually get in field goal range.

• I'm happy Randall McDaniel got in, but if you're looking for a reason why few people care about football history in the way that people care about baseball history, its the fact that Chris Carter has now been passed over twice for the Hall of Fame. If the second best person to ever play a position was on the ballot in baseball, the controversy would be over why 5% of the electorate didn't vote for them, instead of why they got passed over twice while two players (who are likely Hall of Famers, but weren't as good) that played the same position got in instead. Chris Carter retired with the 3rd most receiving yards, the 2nd most receptions and the 2nd most touchdowns. He accomplished all of that with Rich Gannon, Jim McMahon, a 39 and 40 year old Warren Moon, Brad Johnson, Randall Cunningham, Jeff George and Daunte Culpepper as the Vikings' quarterbacks.

• And, because I wouldn't be a Vikings fan if I didn't end a Super Bowl post with negativity, I think its become clear that Vikings fans should probably just accept the fact that the only way the Purple will still be in Minnesota after their lease with the Metrodome runs out is if the Chargers or Jaguars beat them to L.A. There's no way they're getting public funding for a new stadium any time soon (nor should they when the state is laying off thousands of workers to balance its budget), and since Zygi's not going to pay for it himself (and Roger Goodall is clearly against his teams paying for their own stadiums) that means that unless another team moves to L.A., the Vikings are going to. So they really need to find a good quarterback in the next year or two so they can actually having a shot at winning a Super Bowl before they move.
  

• And one last bit of negativity--I'd be willing to bet that the Purple are the only team to have three former coordinators win Super Bowls without the head coach they worked under taking a team to the Super Bowl.
  

Optimism About Tarvaris

With the Favre Fiasco finally resolved through a trade with the Jets, we now know that Tarvaris Jackson is going to be the starting quarterback. And that means that the success of the Vikings will rest largely on his ability to be a league average quarterback. There’s good news on that front, however, as one of the surprising things that this edition of the Pro Football Prospectus has done is reinforce my confidence in Tarvaris Jackson’s ability to be a league average quarterback. To be fair, I’m probably interpreting the stats as optimistically as possible, but I reserve the right not to let the Vikings’ long history of failure prevent me from being optimistic. So, without further ado, the Pro Football Prospectus’ reasons to be confident about Brad Childress’ decision to trust a Super Bowl caliber team in Tarvaris Jackson:

• Tarvaris Jackson had a better DVOA and DYAR last year than Marc Bulger, 2005 first overall pick Alex Smith, three of the five other quarterbacks selected in the first three rounds of the 2006 draft, all of which the experts consider to be better quarterback prospects (Kellen Clemens of the Jets, Brodie Croyle of the Chiefs and #3 pick Vince Young) and last, but not least, Super Bowl Champion Eli Manning, who was, without any question, a worse quarterback than Tarvaris Jackson last year. Manning’s DVOA was -13.1%, Tarvaris’ was -5.8%. Manning had -70 DYAR, Tarvaris had 107 DYAR. Manning completed 56.1% of his passes while averaging 5.6 Net Yards per Pass, while Tarvaris completed 58.7% of his passes while averaging 6.0 NY/P.

• Tarvaris’ was a lot more accurate than his stats show. According to PFP’s game charters, he had the 9^th highest drop rate, as Vikings’ receivers dropped 20 passes, a full 6.9% of his throws. That rate should go down now that Troy Williamson is gone, and the offense now features Sidney Rice (projected catch percentage of 57%), Bobby Wade (projected catch percentage of 57%) and Bernard Berrian (projected catch percentage of 54%). He also had the 7^th lowest rate of underthrown passes and the 3^rd fewest passes defensed, where he slots right in right after Tom Brady, but ahead of Carson Palmer, Drew Brees, Donovan McNabb, Ben Roethlisburger and David Garrard.

• Tarvaris is good at avoiding sacks. The Vikings’ line had an adjusted sack rate (ASR) of 8.6%, the fifth highest in the NFL. Tarvaris’ was 6.5%. That low rate doesn’t mean he wasn’t hit a lot though, as he was knocked down (sacked or hit) 17.4% of the time he dropped back, the fourth highest rate of quarterback’s with at least 200 attempts. What’s striking is the ASR of the other quarterbacks in the top ten of that list—six of the nine had ASR higher than 8.0%.

• David Garrard was 29 in 2006, one year before his breakout (Tarvaris will be 25 this year), but aside from his age, his advanced statistics are close enough to Tarvaris’ last year to believe that some tweaking of Tarvaris’ arm angle and footwork, combined with better receivers, could lead to a similar breakout.
• Garrard’s line: 11 games, 60.2% Completion Percentage, -4.8% DVOA, 107 DYAR, 6.6 NY/P, 8.3% ASR, 7.0% Rushing DVOA, 56 Rushing DYAR.
• Tarvaris’ line: 12 games, 58.2% Completion Percentage, -5.8% DVOA, 107 DYAR, 6.0 NY/P, 6.5% ASR, 25.4% Rushing DVOA, 80 Rushing DYAR.
• Ok, I know that’s something of a stretch, but remember, we’re being optimistic here. Garrard’s line doesn’t foretell a 4% increase in Completion Percentage, a 42.2% increase in DVOA, an increase of 981 DYAR, a 7.0 NY/P, a 1.4% decrease in ASR and a complete lack of scrambling the next year (Garrard only ran 5 times last year, down from 47 in 2006).

Is that enough to convince me that Tarvaris Jackson can lead the Vikings to the Super Bowl (or at least not get in the way of the rest of the team)? Maybe. Maybe not. Is it enough to convince me that the Vikings made the right choice in not trading for Derek Anderson or Chad Pennington, and in the process giving away the draft picks they used to obtain Jared Allen? Yes. And is it enough to convince me that I’d rather have Tarvaris than Favre and all the cognitive issues he would have created? Yes, yes, a thousand times yes.

Killing Time: Favre Fiasco and Schedule Analysis

Since I have no idea what to think about the ongoing Favre Fiasco, and I'm too worried that Vikes Geek might be right about the Interception King might be released this weekend, I avoided thinking about football last night and watched the Twins climb within a half game of first place with a comeback win against the White Sox (with a little help from the fans in icing Chicago's starting pitcher).

Anyway, if you're interested, I wrote a post for Twinkietown analyzing the schedules for the three AL Central contenders over the final two months. And while the Twins have more road games than the Tigers or White Sox, they still have the easiest schedule. I don't know if it'll be enough to make the difference in the race, but its more than enough to give you hope that the Twins might just pull out the AL Central.

I'm going to sit down this weekend and start writing up my previews for the upcoming NFL season, so check back on Monday, when, barring something crazy happening, I'll have my first preview up. Let's hope nothing too crazy happens.

Killing Time: Hall of Fame, Favre Fiasco, Training Camp and More

Lots of great stuff out there on the World Wide Web to look at, if you know where to look. And if you don't, well, that's what this post is for.

• Football Outsiders took a look at the Vikings' Hall of Fame candidates and Gonzo at Daily Norseman has a post discussing the various candidates. Aside from the obvious players (Randall McDaniel and Chris Carter) who have yet to be inducted, the oversight of Jim Marshall and Mick Tinglehoff is inexcusable. The fact those two aren't in is much worse than Art Monk not being elected until this year. Heck, Chris Doleman not being in is probably worse than Art Monk not being elected until this year. Or at least comparable.
  

• The Favre fiasco is gaining steam, with the Packers offering him $20 million to stay home and some semi reputable people starting to believe that he'll end up in Purple. While I would enjoy the reaction this guy would have to Favre running onto Lambeau Field in Purple on September 8th.
  

• Joe Posnanski has a great piece on Favre and his legacy. I think he's probably right about Favre not ruining how people will remember him, but what he is doing is making it hard for the media to worship him in the way that they have, which is perfectly fine with me.
  

• While the Vikings' schedule looks harder than normal (due almost entirely to having to face the AFC South, which had all of its teams finish with records of at least .500 last year), Jason Winter looked at the only other time that happened and found there was a drop off the next year, which is good. Also good? The fact that Payton Manning isn't scheduled to put on the pads until the final preseason game.

• Grant's Tomb answers the question--What if the Vikings had traded for Jason Taylor?

• If all you really care about is how the Vikings have looked at training camp, Vikings Valhalla has a ton of pictures for your enjoyment, and Skol Vikes has a wrap up of the first week of camp.
  

Killing Time: 5 Tidbits from the Prospectus

One of my favorite moments of the year happened last night--my Football Prospectus arrived. If you don't know, it's written by the folks at Football Outsiders (with an assist from the folks at Baseball Prospectus). I had a chance to flip through it last night, and though I'm saving it for later (as much as I can) because I have a massive trip coming up next week (though I should still be able to post), I did notice some interesting tidbits while flipping through it. I also plan on stealing a bit called "Ask the Prospectus" from Joe Posnanski and using it to preview the upcoming season.

But first, some interesting stuff I saw last night while watching the Twins demolish the White Sox (which I really enjoyed).

• One of the ways that the Prospectus evaluates defensive lineman is by the percentage of a team's plays they make while playing. Guess who was #1 last year? That's right--Jared Allen, with 10.7%. He's joined in the top 5 by Pat Williams, who was 3rd overall with 8.7%, and he also gets to work with Kevin Williams, who was 30th with 5.2% and Ray Edwards, who was 53rd with 5.3%. No other defense that I saw had a front four that made that many plays. That line is going to be ridiculous next year.
  

• Payton Manning is on pace to break Brett Favre's touchdown and yards record in 2013, when he's 37 (assuming that Favre ends up back in Mississippi this year). It'll take Manning a little longer to take the title of "Interception King" from Favre, however -- it'll take Manning until 2021, when he's 45, to break Favre's interception mark. And yes, I will be pulling for Manning to maintain his pace until 2014 or 2015 and then retire, leaving Favre with only one record--most interceptions thrown.

• I'm still not sure about the Maurice Hicks signing, since I think he'll end up returning kicks instead of the younger, better Aundrae Allison, but the Prospectus notes that he's both a very good blocker and a great receiver out of the backfield. They predict that he'll end up catching 72% of the passes thrown his way (down from the 88% last year), and average 8.8 yards per catch. If he turns into a nice third down option for the Purple and a decent backup, I'll be happy. If he's used a lot on special teams instead of younger, better players, I won't be. Simple as that. And yes, I do plan on beating this horse until it's way past dead.
  

• Randy Moss racked up the second most DYAR by a wide receiver in the history of Football Outsiders last year (their stats go back to 1995), behind only Michael Irvin in 1995. He was one of only two receivers to show up in the top ten (Marvin Harrison did as well) as his 2003 season was the 8th best. Yes, I still miss him--why do you ask?

• The Vikings' tight end situation can be summed up thusly: Jim Kleinsasser is described with the statement "This is not a tight end, this is not a fullback, this is a slightly undersized tackle who occasionally, perhaps accidently, finds the ball in his hands". Visanthe Shiancoe is projected to have a career year where he catches 56 passes for 396 yards and 3 touchdowns and dark horse candidate for the job, Garrett Mills, doesn't even get a projection.
  

DO NOT WANT

I knew it would come to this. I knew it. This season is the most anticipated season since 1999 for the Purple, and Brett Favre has to go and drag the Vikings into his Green and Gold mess. This is not ok.

I do not want Brett Favre in Purple, plain and simple. I literally cannot think of a worse thing for a sports team to do to its fan base (except for the Red Sox somehow acquiring Derek Jeter prior to 2004, though I think this is worse, because of how much more important the quarterback position is to a football team). His acquisition would ruin my enjoyment of the season (I prefer my celebrations to be more spontaneous and less nostalgic) and would almost certainly prevent the Vikings from winning a Super Bowl in the foreseeable future.

That's right-the Vikings cannot win the Super Bowl with Brett Favre as their quarterback. Favre was at his best when he had a coach that can rein him in. That's why he was good under Holmgren, and that's why he was pretty good under Mike McCarthy. Under McCarthy, however, you could see Favre start to revert back to "gunslinger" mode. Old habits die hard, and they're especially hard to break when you are skipping offseason workouts and training camps because you're too busy being a prima donna and debating whether or not to retire. That second point is particularly important now (and why the Packers smartly gave him a March deadline this year), considering that he'd have to come in and learn a new offense with the Purple. And the first point? Does anyone actually think Childress (or anyone, really-this point isn't meant to be a knock on Childress) could rein in the Interception King's ego and get him to buy into the system after all of this crap so far, and all of the "Savior of the Vikings" crap that the media would spew out if he joined the Purple?

Despite all of that, acquiring Favre might not have been the worst idea in the history of the franchise (which is still probably the Herschel Walker trade) if it wasn't guaranteed to wreck this Vikings' team chances of ever winning the Super Bowl. When you consider the age of some of the key players, the Purple probably have a 2-3 year window to win the Super Bowl before they take a step back (I'm not saying they'll spiral out of control like the Dennis Green era did, because this team is too well managed, but they'll likely go from a Super Bowl contender to a playoff contender). If the Vikings bring in Favre, he'll self destruct the same way he has in every playoffs since 1996 and then, just like he's done the last three years, he'll pull the same "I might retire, maybe, but I won't tell you in a reasonable amount of time and I certainly won't practice because I'm THE GUNSLINGER" schtick and the Vikings will be stuck, just like the Packers have been, unable to move forward with Tarvaris Jackson (who won't get any better sitting behind a quarterback that refuses to mentor young quarterbacks) and figure out if Tarvaris is the answer in time to get another quarterback before the team takes a step back.

And none of that factors in the nausea that seeing Favre in Purple would cause, which is just another reason that the Vikings should stay far, far away from him. Of course that means he's somehow going to end up on the Vikings. I don't know how, but I know, because that's the kind of thing this team does.

[I'm back...sorry about the long break between posts. There'll be a new post tomorrow, and pretty much every weekday from here through the end of the season.]