In one of the better sports weekends in my recent memory, the Hoyas came away with an amazing come from behind win at #21 Marquette, the Vikings filled some of the holes in their roster, including the signing of a legitimate wide receiver who is an actual deep threat, something the Purple haven't had since they traded Randy Moss away after the 2004 season.
The signing of Berrian is huge. And when I say huge, I mean "create a 'hope' tag for the first time" huge. He was, quite simply, the best receiver available to the Vikings on the free agent market. When I wrote about him earlier, I didn't expect him to make it away from Chicago, because I expected da Bears to either sign him or use the franchise tag on him. They didn't do either, and because of Zygi Wilf's willingness to spend money to make his team better (this is the second time since he took over in 2005 that the Vikings have made a splash in free agency), the Vikings have added the biggest piece missing from their offense (assuming that the Purple are planning on continuing the Tarvaris Revolution).
And while Berrian has never had 1000 yards receiving, or 100 receptions, what he has done is produce despite having mediocre to bad quarterbacks throwing him the ball. No matter what your opinion of Tarvaris is, he's not that much worse than Kyle Orton, Rex Grossman and Brian Griese, especially when you consider that da Bears played in conditions that weren't favorable to passing.
Of course, some seem to think that the Vikings overpaid for Berrian. His contract for six years included $16 million in guaranteed money and was worth $42 million overall, which makes him the fourth highest paid receiver in the NFL. Is he the 4th best receiver in the NFL? Probably not. That's a flawed metric to use in order to determine if the Vikings overpaid, however, because the market for free agents this year is different than last year's, or the year before that, or the year before that. The question one needs to ask to determine if the Vikings overpaid is to determine whether they could have used the money to acquire a better player and if Berrian's value to the Vikings is worth the cap space he takes up. I think he was the best receiver available and that he will be more than worth the money to the Vikings and to Adrian Peterson, who will only have to run into eight and nine man fronts, instead of the nine and ten man fronts he saw last year.
First off, Berrian greatly upgrades the Vikings' weakest position, something that the Purple absolutely had to do this off season. Secondly, the Vikings had the cap room to spend, something they are likely to continue to have, considering the ability they have shown at managing their cap (for example, Chester Taylor, Steve Hutchinson and the rest of the Vikings' big signings in 2005 didn't effect their ability to pursue free agents last year or to sign free agents this year). Finally, when one considers that Donte' Stallworth, a receiver who was an inferior version of Berrian, signed a contract for seven years, with $10 million of it's $35 million total guaranteed, Berrian's contract looks a lot better. One of the keys to free agency is to spend your money on the best talent. Where a team can get itself in trouble is when it starts shelling out money to mid range talent. And Berrian was clearly the best talent available at wide receiver. And now he's a Viking.
As I said earlier in the post, it was a good weekend.
[Up next--Who's left the Purple, Who's rushing the quarterback, and Maurice Hicks & Jabar Gaffney]
Showing posts with label The Offense. Show all posts
Showing posts with label The Offense. Show all posts
Monday, March 03, 2008
Tuesday, October 02, 2007
Thoughts on the Offense
Through four weeks, the Vikings defense has been among the NFL's elite. There have been questions about their pass defense (I'm looking at you Cedric Griffin), but overall, they have unquestionably been a top 5 defense. Both Football Outsiders and Cold, Hard Football Facts have them as the fourth best overall, with a DVOA of -11.3% and a Bendability score of 22.29 YPPA. Even the special teams have improved from last year, going from the 28th best, with a -3.5% DVOA to the 8th best with a 5.8% DVOA.
And yet the Vikings are at 1-3 going into their bye, and only have a 17.8% chance of making the playoffs. I'm sure you don't need me to tell you that's because of their awful offense. You don't even need advanced statistics to tell you that. Really, all you need to know is that the Vikings offense has scored exactly one touchdown a game.
The frustrating thing is that the Vikings have displayed something very close to a competent offense this season, not including the Kansas City game. They've run the ball effectively and done a good job of mixing in passes of different lengths, including throwing the ball deep. The problem is that they've found ways to thwart themselves. Tarvaris had his turnover fest against the Lions. Kelly Holcomb has only managed to complete one long pass, despite throwing the ball deep quite a few times. And he under threw Wade, allowing the Green Bay defender to catch up to him. Holcomb has also been sacked nine times and had even more passes knocked down at the line.
I'd like to take this moment to state that, so long as Tarvaris Jackson is healthy, he should be starting at quarterback. Holcomb is what he is, which is a competent backup that has limited mobility, the tendency to hold onto the ball too long and a motion that leads to passes being batted down at the line. He's not going to give the Vikings much more than what we saw the last two games. The Tarvaris Revolution, however, has upside. When he gets comfortable at NFL speeds, he could be a very good quarterback. And its important at this point that the Vikings give him the chance to reach that potential on the field, so that they can make an informed decision at the end of the season about whether or not he's their quarterback of the future.
The other reason to start Tarvaris over Holcomb is his mobility, something he'll need, as the Vikings pass protection as gotten worse. The offensive line wasn't great at protecting their quarterbacks last year, as can be seen by the 6.6% adjusted sack rate they posted, which was 22nd in the NFL. They've somehow managed to do worse this year, with an 8.3% adj. sack rate through their first four games, good for 23rd in the league. And its even worse when you consider that, unlike last year, when they had the immobile Brad Johnson start 14 games, the Vikings have played half of their games with a quarterback able to avoid sacks.
Luckily for the Vikings, they have a bye this week, giving them two whole weeks to figure out how to take the step from "almost competent" to "competent" on offense. If they don't figure it out by their game against da Bears, its going to be over for them, and likely over for Brad Childress as a coach. And as I'll discuss tomorrow, he won't have anyone to blame but himself.
And yet the Vikings are at 1-3 going into their bye, and only have a 17.8% chance of making the playoffs. I'm sure you don't need me to tell you that's because of their awful offense. You don't even need advanced statistics to tell you that. Really, all you need to know is that the Vikings offense has scored exactly one touchdown a game.
The frustrating thing is that the Vikings have displayed something very close to a competent offense this season, not including the Kansas City game. They've run the ball effectively and done a good job of mixing in passes of different lengths, including throwing the ball deep. The problem is that they've found ways to thwart themselves. Tarvaris had his turnover fest against the Lions. Kelly Holcomb has only managed to complete one long pass, despite throwing the ball deep quite a few times. And he under threw Wade, allowing the Green Bay defender to catch up to him. Holcomb has also been sacked nine times and had even more passes knocked down at the line.
I'd like to take this moment to state that, so long as Tarvaris Jackson is healthy, he should be starting at quarterback. Holcomb is what he is, which is a competent backup that has limited mobility, the tendency to hold onto the ball too long and a motion that leads to passes being batted down at the line. He's not going to give the Vikings much more than what we saw the last two games. The Tarvaris Revolution, however, has upside. When he gets comfortable at NFL speeds, he could be a very good quarterback. And its important at this point that the Vikings give him the chance to reach that potential on the field, so that they can make an informed decision at the end of the season about whether or not he's their quarterback of the future.
The other reason to start Tarvaris over Holcomb is his mobility, something he'll need, as the Vikings pass protection as gotten worse. The offensive line wasn't great at protecting their quarterbacks last year, as can be seen by the 6.6% adjusted sack rate they posted, which was 22nd in the NFL. They've somehow managed to do worse this year, with an 8.3% adj. sack rate through their first four games, good for 23rd in the league. And its even worse when you consider that, unlike last year, when they had the immobile Brad Johnson start 14 games, the Vikings have played half of their games with a quarterback able to avoid sacks.
Luckily for the Vikings, they have a bye this week, giving them two whole weeks to figure out how to take the step from "almost competent" to "competent" on offense. If they don't figure it out by their game against da Bears, its going to be over for them, and likely over for Brad Childress as a coach. And as I'll discuss tomorrow, he won't have anyone to blame but himself.
Tuesday, September 25, 2007
Predictability, Thy Name is Childress/Bevell
Vikings fans have complained incessantly about the the Vikings' offense since Brad Childress' first game. They've said it was too predictable, too reliant on short yardage plays and unable to put points on the board. They were right.
On Sunday, the Vikings ran 26 plays on first down, including one play that was negated by an illegal shift by Jeff Dugan. Of those 29 plays, 12 came in the first half and 14 came in the second half. Of those 26 plays, the Vikings ran the ball 21 times, eleven times in the first half and ten times in the second half. Those numbers also include two first down plays on the final drive, where the Vikings had to throw. And even including those two plays, the Vikings still ran the ball 72.4% of the time on first down. I wonder if the Chiefs noticed? (Let's see here...36 total yards in the second half? I think the Chiefs adjusted.)
If the Vikings had realized the Chiefs were planning on flooding the box with 8 or 9 defenders (something you think they'd have noticed), they should have been able to torch them on first down. Instead, they kept pounding Adrian Peterson into the line, which, surprisingly enough, didn't work too well. The Purple got an 12 yard run and a 9 yard run out of Peterson on first down and one 11 yard run from Mewelde Moore, but also got carries of -1 yards, -5 yards, -2 yards, 0 yards and 3 yards. That's 4 plays that, considering the Vikings lack of big play makers, basically doomed drives and one carry that helped a little.
Here's the really infuriating thing: the Vikings weren't having a lot of success running the ball on first down in the first half either, where they ran the ball for -4 yards, 16 yards, 11 yards, -1 yards, 10 yards, 1 yard, 0 yards, 5 yards, 1 yard and 3 yards. Out of ten rushing plays, they got first downs three times, got a good gain once, an average gain once and got one yard twice and had no gain or lost yardage three times.
My guess is that Childress and Bevell ran the ball so many times because they didn't want to get into second and long situations due to failed passes. I hope that they knew their offensive players aren't good enough to convert 2nd and 3rd and longs and so they ran the ball on first down in order to create manageable 2nd and 3rd downs. And, if so, that, at least, makes sense. That doesn't mean they were right to do so. Anytime you have such a predictable pattern in the NFL, you are going to fail. And the Vikings were about as predictable as you can get on first down. And thus, the offense failed miserably.
And that's enough of that awful game. I'm going to be kicking off Packers Week later this afternoon/this evening. I don't really think the Vikings are going to win, but they only need to pick off Farve twice to get him to 277 and tie him with George Blanda for most interceptions thrown.
On Sunday, the Vikings ran 26 plays on first down, including one play that was negated by an illegal shift by Jeff Dugan. Of those 29 plays, 12 came in the first half and 14 came in the second half. Of those 26 plays, the Vikings ran the ball 21 times, eleven times in the first half and ten times in the second half. Those numbers also include two first down plays on the final drive, where the Vikings had to throw. And even including those two plays, the Vikings still ran the ball 72.4% of the time on first down. I wonder if the Chiefs noticed? (Let's see here...36 total yards in the second half? I think the Chiefs adjusted.)
If the Vikings had realized the Chiefs were planning on flooding the box with 8 or 9 defenders (something you think they'd have noticed), they should have been able to torch them on first down. Instead, they kept pounding Adrian Peterson into the line, which, surprisingly enough, didn't work too well. The Purple got an 12 yard run and a 9 yard run out of Peterson on first down and one 11 yard run from Mewelde Moore, but also got carries of -1 yards, -5 yards, -2 yards, 0 yards and 3 yards. That's 4 plays that, considering the Vikings lack of big play makers, basically doomed drives and one carry that helped a little.
Here's the really infuriating thing: the Vikings weren't having a lot of success running the ball on first down in the first half either, where they ran the ball for -4 yards, 16 yards, 11 yards, -1 yards, 10 yards, 1 yard, 0 yards, 5 yards, 1 yard and 3 yards. Out of ten rushing plays, they got first downs three times, got a good gain once, an average gain once and got one yard twice and had no gain or lost yardage three times.
My guess is that Childress and Bevell ran the ball so many times because they didn't want to get into second and long situations due to failed passes. I hope that they knew their offensive players aren't good enough to convert 2nd and 3rd and longs and so they ran the ball on first down in order to create manageable 2nd and 3rd downs. And, if so, that, at least, makes sense. That doesn't mean they were right to do so. Anytime you have such a predictable pattern in the NFL, you are going to fail. And the Vikings were about as predictable as you can get on first down. And thus, the offense failed miserably.
And that's enough of that awful game. I'm going to be kicking off Packers Week later this afternoon/this evening. I don't really think the Vikings are going to win, but they only need to pick off Farve twice to get him to 277 and tie him with George Blanda for most interceptions thrown.
Thursday, September 06, 2007
The Falcons' Defense
Like the Falcons' offense and Vikings' defense, Atlanta's defense is a mirror image of the Vikings' offense. They are very good at stopping the run and bad against the pass, perfect for letting the Tarvaris Revolution hit the proverbial ground running.
Last year, led by the monstrous Grady Jackson (6'2, 345lbs), who you may remember from the Packers, the Falcons line dominated opposing running backs, holding them to an anemic 3.75 yards per carry, the 6th lowest total in the NFL. Only four backs ran for 100 yards against them, and they held their opponents under 100 yards rushing nine times. Their front seven is banged up though, with Grady Jacksons fellow tackle, Rod Coleman, questionable due to a quadricep injury and starting linebacker Demorrio Williams out for the first five weeks of the season due to a torn pectoral muscle.
Despite those injuries, Chester Taylor and the Purple Jesus are still going to have their hands full, something Tarvaris and his merry band of wide outs do not. They're going to have a much easier time against a pass defense that was one of the worst in the NFL last year, and got worse in the offseason, due to the departure of defensive end Patrick Kerney via free agency. Without Kerney, the Falcons will be relying on raw first rounder Jamaal Anderson and John Abraham to improve an ineffective pass rush. The Falcons defense was able to create a negative pass play 8.88% of the time, which was 22nd in the league. And while Abraham was effective when he was healthy last year, he wasn't healthy very often, and his injury problems have started up again, as he's battling a hip flexor injury. And unlike the Vikings, the Falcons don't have a very good secondary to make up for their poor pass rush. DeAngelo Hall is good (55% success rate against passes thrown his way), Jimmy Williams is starting at safety for the first time and Lawyer Milloy is awful, turning in a 40% success rate last year.
The combination of a poor secondary and minimal pass rush meant that the Falcons defense made opposing quarterbacks look like better versions of Tom Brady. Opposing QBs had an 88.8 quarterback rating against Atlanta, which would have been good enough for 9th in the NFL, ahead of Brady's 87.9 rating. It was the 6th worst defensive quarterback rating in the NFL.
That's why this Sunday should be fun for the Revolution and the Vikings. Hutchinson and Birk vs Grady Jackson will be an epic battle in the middle, but Tarvaris shouldn't have any trouble getting off to a good start. And I'm sure I'm not the only one who'd rather the Vikings' experienced players have a challenge instead of the inexperienced ones. Luckily, that's how it's worked out against the Falcons.
Last year, led by the monstrous Grady Jackson (6'2, 345lbs), who you may remember from the Packers, the Falcons line dominated opposing running backs, holding them to an anemic 3.75 yards per carry, the 6th lowest total in the NFL. Only four backs ran for 100 yards against them, and they held their opponents under 100 yards rushing nine times. Their front seven is banged up though, with Grady Jacksons fellow tackle, Rod Coleman, questionable due to a quadricep injury and starting linebacker Demorrio Williams out for the first five weeks of the season due to a torn pectoral muscle.
Despite those injuries, Chester Taylor and the Purple Jesus are still going to have their hands full, something Tarvaris and his merry band of wide outs do not. They're going to have a much easier time against a pass defense that was one of the worst in the NFL last year, and got worse in the offseason, due to the departure of defensive end Patrick Kerney via free agency. Without Kerney, the Falcons will be relying on raw first rounder Jamaal Anderson and John Abraham to improve an ineffective pass rush. The Falcons defense was able to create a negative pass play 8.88% of the time, which was 22nd in the league. And while Abraham was effective when he was healthy last year, he wasn't healthy very often, and his injury problems have started up again, as he's battling a hip flexor injury. And unlike the Vikings, the Falcons don't have a very good secondary to make up for their poor pass rush. DeAngelo Hall is good (55% success rate against passes thrown his way), Jimmy Williams is starting at safety for the first time and Lawyer Milloy is awful, turning in a 40% success rate last year.
The combination of a poor secondary and minimal pass rush meant that the Falcons defense made opposing quarterbacks look like better versions of Tom Brady. Opposing QBs had an 88.8 quarterback rating against Atlanta, which would have been good enough for 9th in the NFL, ahead of Brady's 87.9 rating. It was the 6th worst defensive quarterback rating in the NFL.
That's why this Sunday should be fun for the Revolution and the Vikings. Hutchinson and Birk vs Grady Jackson will be an epic battle in the middle, but Tarvaris shouldn't have any trouble getting off to a good start. And I'm sure I'm not the only one who'd rather the Vikings' experienced players have a challenge instead of the inexperienced ones. Luckily, that's how it's worked out against the Falcons.
Friday, August 17, 2007
Quick Thoughts and an Apology
So...remember when I was "back"? Yeah, that didn't work--I clearly overestimated my ability to post while traveling for business. Hence the two posts followed by nothing.
But now, I'm back home, no longer traveling and have given up on the Twins season (meaning, that, while I'll still be watching their games, I no longer feel it necessary to spend time thinking about them). Hopefully, that means this post won't be an isolated one.
Now, I must admit that I was not able to watch the Vikings' first preseason game (oddly enough, not every hotel has the NFL Network--who knew?), but it looked like it went well. Tarvis Jackson's stat line was good for the one quarter he was in--8/11 for 83 yds and 2 scrambles for 25 yds. Troy Williamson and B0bby Wade didn't do too poorly and the defensive ends (not counting the Vikings' run specialist, Keneci Udeze) put pressure on the quarterbacks, even if they didn't actually bring them down.
It was a good first step on the long and winding path back to the playoffs. And the team takes the second step tonight against the Jets. Here's what I'll be looking for tonight:
But now, I'm back home, no longer traveling and have given up on the Twins season (meaning, that, while I'll still be watching their games, I no longer feel it necessary to spend time thinking about them). Hopefully, that means this post won't be an isolated one.
Now, I must admit that I was not able to watch the Vikings' first preseason game (oddly enough, not every hotel has the NFL Network--who knew?), but it looked like it went well. Tarvis Jackson's stat line was good for the one quarter he was in--8/11 for 83 yds and 2 scrambles for 25 yds. Troy Williamson and B0bby Wade didn't do too poorly and the defensive ends (not counting the Vikings' run specialist, Keneci Udeze) put pressure on the quarterbacks, even if they didn't actually bring them down.
It was a good first step on the long and winding path back to the playoffs. And the team takes the second step tonight against the Jets. Here's what I'll be looking for tonight:
- Another accurate performance from Tarvaris. I'm hoping he'll once again complete 65%-70% of his passes and avoid throwing interceptions. The biggest question mark with the Revolution is his accuracy and his decision making. The most important thing in Brad Childress' offense are the receivers catching passes in stride on the short and medium routes so they can do something with it.
- Brooks Bollinger continuing to personify mediocrity. The last thing this team needs is a quarterback controversy. Brad Childress' decision to play Bollinger for a quarter with the first team seems guaranteed to create one. If he's mediocre to bad again, that will hopefully put any possible controversy to rest, so Childress can go back to focusing on developing his young starting quarterback. It makes no sense whatsoever to cut into Tarvaris' playing time, especially if the reason is to give Drew Henson and Tyler Thigpen more playing time.
- Can any of the rookie wide receivers make an impact in the game? Sidney Rice had one catch last game, but he was the only one.
- The Vikings are currently have five safeties with the talent to start. Are Darren Sharper and Dwight Smith locks for the position, or do Mike Doss, Tank Williams and Greg Blue have a shot to start?
- Finally, I'd like to see Tarvaris lead the first team offense to a touchdown, preferably on a completion to Troy Williamson. That would hopefully quiet the nattering nabobs of negativity, at least for a week.
Sunday, July 29, 2007
Back to Lead the Revolucion
Do the analysts and prognosticators have you down? Trying to figure out how an offense with a second year quarterback throwing to no name receivers, two running backs with durability issues and a line with question marks on the right side is going to get a quality defense into the playoffs? Well, I 'm back! And I’m ready to show how you too can realistically and reasonably hope for the Vikings to make the playoffs. (I can tell you’re excited. At least as excited as you are about Adrian Peterson signing only a few days into training camp.)
So lets start with the biggest question the Vikings have—can Tarvaris Jackson play well enough to be an effective quarterback? I say yes. And I’m not the only one (there are quite a few bloggers who are with me). The premiere NFL analysts on the web, the Football Outsiders, have put out their Pro Football Prospuctus for 2007, and based up on their KUBIAK projection system, it seems the Vikings’ decision not to acquire Jeff Garcia, David Carr or Matt Schaub was a good one.
Tarvaris Jackson: 58.5 Completion Perc., 3363 yds 16TD 16INT, 101 rushes, 677yds
Jeff Garcia: 56.7 Completion Perc., 2640 yards 18 TD, 21 INT, 43 rushes, 133yds
David Carr: 60 Completion Perc., 2644yds 17 TD, 19 INT, 42 rushes, 185 yds
Matt Schaub: 62.4 Completion Perc. 3175yds, 15TD 14 INT, 49 rushes 167yds
Well that TD:INT ration isn’t all that great, I don’t think any Vikings fan will be unhappy with a QB that throws 3 less interceptions and 5 more TD. Not to mention 677 rushing yards. Don’t underestimate the effect a scrambling quarterback can have on a secondary. As Michael Vick would tell you (were he not, you know, busy), that doesn’t mean the receivers will catch the ball, however. It’s definitely an offensive weapon that Brad Childress had when Brad Johnson was quarterback.
Is Tarvaris Jackson going to be able to turn the Vikings’ offense from the awful unit it was last year into the Greatest Show on Turf? No. But the Vikings’ defense didn’t need the Greatest Show on Turf to make the playoffs last year. Not even close. All it needed was a competent offense, something the Vikings’ offense was not. One more touchdown could have made the difference in five games the Vikings’ lost last year. Just one more. And as you may remember from earlier in the post, KUBIAK has Tarvaris throwing for five more touchdowns in 2007 than the Vikings’ passing attack generated last year. And that doesn’t even account for the addition of Adrian Peterson. All the offense needs to be is competent. And Tarvaris and Adrian are going to ensure it is
Viva la Tarvaris Revolucion!!
So lets start with the biggest question the Vikings have—can Tarvaris Jackson play well enough to be an effective quarterback? I say yes. And I’m not the only one (there are quite a few bloggers who are with me). The premiere NFL analysts on the web, the Football Outsiders, have put out their Pro Football Prospuctus for 2007, and based up on their KUBIAK projection system, it seems the Vikings’ decision not to acquire Jeff Garcia, David Carr or Matt Schaub was a good one.
Tarvaris Jackson: 58.5 Completion Perc., 3363 yds 16TD 16INT, 101 rushes, 677yds
Jeff Garcia: 56.7 Completion Perc., 2640 yards 18 TD, 21 INT, 43 rushes, 133yds
David Carr: 60 Completion Perc., 2644yds 17 TD, 19 INT, 42 rushes, 185 yds
Matt Schaub: 62.4 Completion Perc. 3175yds, 15TD 14 INT, 49 rushes 167yds
Well that TD:INT ration isn’t all that great, I don’t think any Vikings fan will be unhappy with a QB that throws 3 less interceptions and 5 more TD. Not to mention 677 rushing yards. Don’t underestimate the effect a scrambling quarterback can have on a secondary. As Michael Vick would tell you (were he not, you know, busy), that doesn’t mean the receivers will catch the ball, however. It’s definitely an offensive weapon that Brad Childress had when Brad Johnson was quarterback.
Is Tarvaris Jackson going to be able to turn the Vikings’ offense from the awful unit it was last year into the Greatest Show on Turf? No. But the Vikings’ defense didn’t need the Greatest Show on Turf to make the playoffs last year. Not even close. All it needed was a competent offense, something the Vikings’ offense was not. One more touchdown could have made the difference in five games the Vikings’ lost last year. Just one more. And as you may remember from earlier in the post, KUBIAK has Tarvaris throwing for five more touchdowns in 2007 than the Vikings’ passing attack generated last year. And that doesn’t even account for the addition of Adrian Peterson. All the offense needs to be is competent. And Tarvaris and Adrian are going to ensure it is
Viva la Tarvaris Revolucion!!
Thursday, March 22, 2007
Get Carr Now!
The Houston Texans have acquired Matt Schaub from the Falcons for draft picks, meaning David Carr is available and that he's available for a lot less. This is the perfect opportunity for the Purple to turn a lackluster offseason into an intriguing one. It is a chance to trade for a quarterback that has the skills necessary to run Childress' offense while the Tarvaris Revolution gains the experience needed to make the jump from 1-AA to the NFL. And it's a chance to do so at a reduced cost. Trading for David Carr would be a great move by the Vikings, would signal to their fans that they are not only trying to rebuild the franchise (which is necessary) but also trying to win before their defensive stars get old. And it can most likely be done for a reasonable price in draft picks.
So basically, what I'm trying to say is that I have no confidence that the Vikings will pull off a trade for David Carr.
So basically, what I'm trying to say is that I have no confidence that the Vikings will pull off a trade for David Carr.
Wednesday, March 07, 2007
The Rebuilding of the Receiving Corp
The Vikings finally inked their first free agent that didn't come with a pronunciation guide last night, signing Bobby Wade, formerly of the Tennessee Titans, for five years and $15 million. Wade had something of a break out year last season, finishing second on the team with 33 receptions for 461 yards. While the totals don't seem all that impressive, they're deceptive.
First off, the Titans were starting a rookie Vince Young, at quarterback (Yes, he was Rookie of the Year, but he was still a rookie) . Jeff Fisher is an intelligent coach--he wasn't going to put the focus on his brand new franchise quarterback. The Titans ran the ball about half the time and had the fifth lowest passing attempts in the NFL. And Vince Young finished with the worst completion percentage in the NFL, at 51.5% (and I wonder how he's going to do now that his top two receivers have gone elsewhere?)
Secondly, as I mentioned yesterday, Wade added a lot of value to the Titans. He contributed 11.1 DPAR, which was 1.5 more than the Vikings leading receiver. The reason he was able to do so was because of what he did with his limited receptions. His 14.9% DVOA was the 19th best in the NFL. Both of these totals were better than Drew Bennett's, who had 6.6 DPAR and -4.5% DVOA. Wade even has a decent catch percentage, as he hauled in 57% of the passes thrown to him, which puts him somewhere in the middle of the pack for wide receivers. For example, he would have been behind Travis Taylor (65%) but ahead of Marcus Robinson (50%) on the Vikings last year. When using that stat, one must also remember that it does not attempt to decide where the fault for the incompletion lies, and Wade was playing with the most inaccurate quarterback in the NFL.
So while Wade's statistics may not be all that impressive by themselves, when taken in context, they show a receiver who will be an upgrade over any of the wide outs from last season. His addition is a good first step for the Vikings as they attempt to provide Tarvaris Jackson with someone to throw to.
First off, the Titans were starting a rookie Vince Young, at quarterback (Yes, he was Rookie of the Year, but he was still a rookie) . Jeff Fisher is an intelligent coach--he wasn't going to put the focus on his brand new franchise quarterback. The Titans ran the ball about half the time and had the fifth lowest passing attempts in the NFL. And Vince Young finished with the worst completion percentage in the NFL, at 51.5% (and I wonder how he's going to do now that his top two receivers have gone elsewhere?)
Secondly, as I mentioned yesterday, Wade added a lot of value to the Titans. He contributed 11.1 DPAR, which was 1.5 more than the Vikings leading receiver. The reason he was able to do so was because of what he did with his limited receptions. His 14.9% DVOA was the 19th best in the NFL. Both of these totals were better than Drew Bennett's, who had 6.6 DPAR and -4.5% DVOA. Wade even has a decent catch percentage, as he hauled in 57% of the passes thrown to him, which puts him somewhere in the middle of the pack for wide receivers. For example, he would have been behind Travis Taylor (65%) but ahead of Marcus Robinson (50%) on the Vikings last year. When using that stat, one must also remember that it does not attempt to decide where the fault for the incompletion lies, and Wade was playing with the most inaccurate quarterback in the NFL.
So while Wade's statistics may not be all that impressive by themselves, when taken in context, they show a receiver who will be an upgrade over any of the wide outs from last season. His addition is a good first step for the Vikings as they attempt to provide Tarvaris Jackson with someone to throw to.
Tuesday, March 06, 2007
Treading Water
It says something about how a team is doing in free agency when the only move that helped close the gap (even if only by a little) between them and their division leader was made by the division leader. While the Vikings were busy cutting "Double Duty" Smoot, Jermaine Wiggins, Brad Johnson and Mike Rosenthal, other teams were busy trying to sign their top free agent targets.
And then, when the Vikings were busy signing the guys they wanted the most (Sadly, I would not be too surprised if that were true about Visanthe Shiancoe and Vinny Ciurciu), the other teams were signing the players the Vikings needed the most. Ashley Lelie and Drew Bennett never made it to Minnesota, signing with the 49ers and Rams respectively. Kevin Curtis stopped by, but didn't feel wanted, what with all the coaches working on pronouncing vi-sahn-tee SHANK-oh and church-choo. And while all that was going on, the Vikings missed out on the top defensive end still available, as Patrick Kierney signed with Seattle.
The Vikings have missed out on every opportunity to really improve themselves so far. And now, they are forced to sift through the sleepers, hoping they get lucky by signing Bobby Wade. For once, they might actually do so. Wade wasn't the focal point of the Titans offense by any stretch, but he's still young (26) and provided some value for them. And by some, I mean much, much more than anything the Vikings got out of their recievers. He had the 19th best DVOA, with 14.9%, though that might be slightly inflated, as he only caught 33 passes, racking up an 11.1 DPAR. If he's able to maintain that kind of value as the focal point of the Vikings passing game, however, , he'd be an amazing addition, roughly equivalant to adding a Roy Williams. And apparently, he can return kicks too. He's probably the best available reciever left (except for perhaps Eric Moulds), which means he'll most likely sign somewhere else, and Vikings' fans will have to decide if Dante "In Rehab" Stallworth is a better signing than vi-sahn-tee SHANK-oh or Vinny church-choo. If that happens, the Vikings biggest worry will be pronouncing "Home Games Blacked Out".
And then, when the Vikings were busy signing the guys they wanted the most (Sadly, I would not be too surprised if that were true about Visanthe Shiancoe and Vinny Ciurciu), the other teams were signing the players the Vikings needed the most. Ashley Lelie and Drew Bennett never made it to Minnesota, signing with the 49ers and Rams respectively. Kevin Curtis stopped by, but didn't feel wanted, what with all the coaches working on pronouncing vi-sahn-tee SHANK-oh and church-choo. And while all that was going on, the Vikings missed out on the top defensive end still available, as Patrick Kierney signed with Seattle.
The Vikings have missed out on every opportunity to really improve themselves so far. And now, they are forced to sift through the sleepers, hoping they get lucky by signing Bobby Wade. For once, they might actually do so. Wade wasn't the focal point of the Titans offense by any stretch, but he's still young (26) and provided some value for them. And by some, I mean much, much more than anything the Vikings got out of their recievers. He had the 19th best DVOA, with 14.9%, though that might be slightly inflated, as he only caught 33 passes, racking up an 11.1 DPAR. If he's able to maintain that kind of value as the focal point of the Vikings passing game, however, , he'd be an amazing addition, roughly equivalant to adding a Roy Williams. And apparently, he can return kicks too. He's probably the best available reciever left (except for perhaps Eric Moulds), which means he'll most likely sign somewhere else, and Vikings' fans will have to decide if Dante "In Rehab" Stallworth is a better signing than vi-sahn-tee SHANK-oh or Vinny church-choo. If that happens, the Vikings biggest worry will be pronouncing "Home Games Blacked Out".
Friday, February 16, 2007
Should the Vikings Go After David Carr?
Various news sources are reporting that the Vikings are considering swinging a trade with Houston for David Carr, an idea that I did not initially endorse. But, like a smart fan, I didn’t let my emotions about the Tarvaris Revolution cloud my judgment, instead choosing to base my opinion on the stats. After doing so, I’ve come to the conclusion that Carr would be a great fit for the Vikings over the next two years, allowing Tarvaris to spend another year or two developing prior to taking over.
First off, Carr’s contract should fit perfectly into the Vikings’ plans. He has only two years remaining, both of which are pretty cheap--he’s only owed $5.25 million next season and $6 million in 2008. While 2008 might feature a quarterback controversy, having Carr there would be extremely useful if the Revolution has problems as the starter.
Secondly, Carr is a decent young quarterback with room for improvement. He finished 15th overall, with an 82.1 QB rating, despite having a line that allowed him to be sacked 41 times. Even though he faced constant pressure, he still demonstrated the accuracy needed for the Vikings’ offense, completing over 60% of his passes the last three seasons, including 68.3% of them last year. He has had problems with turnovers, though, averaging 13 interceptions and 13.6 fumbles a season, including 11 picks and 16 fumbles last season. A lot of that, however, can likely be attributed to the beating he took behind the Texans’ porous offensive line.
Of course, that’s nothing new for him, as he’s been sacked 249 times in his five year career, or seven more times than Brad Johnson has been in his 15 year career. Read that sentence again—Carr has been sacked more than Brad Johnson has, despite having played for a third as many seasons. Despite the punishment, he’s held up well, having only missed three games in his career due to injury.
If the Vikings’ were to acquire him, conventional wisdom holds that his stats would improve due to his having more time to work with in the pocket. While he would likely face less pressure than he did in his first four seasons, last year, the Vikings’ line was not effective in avoiding negative pass plays, which a stat Cold Hard Football Facts keeps, which measures “how often pass plays end in either a sack or interception”. The Texans had 10.69% of their pass plays end negatively, which was the 22nd best total in the league. This was a vast improvement over the 15.7% from the year before, but still pretty bad. The Vikings were actually worse, however, as 10.81% of their pass plays ended negatively. The difference, however, was due to interceptions as the Vikings had a 19 picks and 43 sacks, while the Texans had 13 picks and 42 sacks. It’s also likely that some of the Vikings’ sacks were due to Johnson’s immobility. Carr, having slightly more mobility than Johnson (as does my desk), should be able to avoid some of the sacks that Johnson could not.
I believe that Tarvaris Jackson has the potential to be a star quarterback in the NFL, and would play well next season if he is the starter. If Brad Childress and the Vikings’ don’t think so, however, I hope that they go after David Carr, because Carr would provide durability, accuracy and potential, which Garcia would not.
First off, Carr’s contract should fit perfectly into the Vikings’ plans. He has only two years remaining, both of which are pretty cheap--he’s only owed $5.25 million next season and $6 million in 2008. While 2008 might feature a quarterback controversy, having Carr there would be extremely useful if the Revolution has problems as the starter.
Secondly, Carr is a decent young quarterback with room for improvement. He finished 15th overall, with an 82.1 QB rating, despite having a line that allowed him to be sacked 41 times. Even though he faced constant pressure, he still demonstrated the accuracy needed for the Vikings’ offense, completing over 60% of his passes the last three seasons, including 68.3% of them last year. He has had problems with turnovers, though, averaging 13 interceptions and 13.6 fumbles a season, including 11 picks and 16 fumbles last season. A lot of that, however, can likely be attributed to the beating he took behind the Texans’ porous offensive line.
Of course, that’s nothing new for him, as he’s been sacked 249 times in his five year career, or seven more times than Brad Johnson has been in his 15 year career. Read that sentence again—Carr has been sacked more than Brad Johnson has, despite having played for a third as many seasons. Despite the punishment, he’s held up well, having only missed three games in his career due to injury.
If the Vikings’ were to acquire him, conventional wisdom holds that his stats would improve due to his having more time to work with in the pocket. While he would likely face less pressure than he did in his first four seasons, last year, the Vikings’ line was not effective in avoiding negative pass plays, which a stat Cold Hard Football Facts keeps, which measures “how often pass plays end in either a sack or interception”. The Texans had 10.69% of their pass plays end negatively, which was the 22nd best total in the league. This was a vast improvement over the 15.7% from the year before, but still pretty bad. The Vikings were actually worse, however, as 10.81% of their pass plays ended negatively. The difference, however, was due to interceptions as the Vikings had a 19 picks and 43 sacks, while the Texans had 13 picks and 42 sacks. It’s also likely that some of the Vikings’ sacks were due to Johnson’s immobility. Carr, having slightly more mobility than Johnson (as does my desk), should be able to avoid some of the sacks that Johnson could not.
I believe that Tarvaris Jackson has the potential to be a star quarterback in the NFL, and would play well next season if he is the starter. If Brad Childress and the Vikings’ don’t think so, however, I hope that they go after David Carr, because Carr would provide durability, accuracy and potential, which Garcia would not.
Tuesday, February 06, 2007
A Look at the Offense--the "Wide Recievers"
Everyone knows that the Vikings’ receivers were bad this year. I didn’t realize how bad they were, however, until I looked at their value as measured by DPAR. I’ll put it this way--the thesaurus does not have enough synonyms for “awful” for me to properly write this article.
Lead by a strong effort by Travis Taylor (8.6 DPAR), the Vikings receivers added a combined 7.5 DPAR to the team this year, or roughly half the value contributed to the Steelers by Nate Washington, one of thirty three (THIRTY THREE!!) wide outs to contribute more than double the value of the Vikings’ entire wide receiving corp.
While no one was predicting Pro Bowls for the Purple’s receivers before the season, few expected them to be as awful as they actually were. Taylor, Marcus Robinson and Troy Williamson’s putrid performance in 2006 was a major drop off from their 2005 totals:
Travis Taylor
Marcus Robinson
Troy Williamson
As the above tables show, all three receivers performed significantly worse than in 2005, with Taylor being the lone exception. That can likely be explained by the huge increase in Taylor’s catch percentage and the likely reason for it. Catch percentage “represents the percentage of passes to this receiver completed” and refers only to complete v. incomplete passes. Drops are not taken into account. Taylor’s double digit increase is most likely due to the change in the offense. Childress’s passing game and Brad Johnson’s weak arm increased the emphasis on short passes, playing to Taylor’s strengths and making him more of a focal point in the passing game.
I could probably go on and on about how pathetic the Vikings wide receivers were this year, but I think this will probably sum it up the best. Travis Taylor was the most valuable wide out for the Vikings this year. His most productive year was 2002, when he posted a 12.3 DPAR, good enough for 35th overall, a position he equaled in 2005. To put that into perspective, in 2006, Pittsburgh, New Orleans and Arizona each had three receivers that ranked higher than 35th in DPAR, eight other teams had two receivers and nine more had one. Twenty teams had better wide receivers than the best year of the Vikings’ most productive wide out. At his most productive, Taylor would only be the second most valuable receiver on nine teams, the third on eight teams and the fourth on three teams. And he wasn’t even at his best in 2006.
[A look at the Fullbacks is coming tomorrow, and if you've missed any of the other positions, the links are below]
Tight Ends
Quarterbacks
Running Backs
Offensive Line
Defense
Lead by a strong effort by Travis Taylor (8.6 DPAR), the Vikings receivers added a combined 7.5 DPAR to the team this year, or roughly half the value contributed to the Steelers by Nate Washington, one of thirty three (THIRTY THREE!!) wide outs to contribute more than double the value of the Vikings’ entire wide receiving corp.
While no one was predicting Pro Bowls for the Purple’s receivers before the season, few expected them to be as awful as they actually were. Taylor, Marcus Robinson and Troy Williamson’s putrid performance in 2006 was a major drop off from their 2005 totals:
Travis Taylor
| DPAR | Rank | DVOA | Rank | Catch % | |
| 2005 | 11.1 | 35 | 4.2% | 42 | 56% |
| 2006 | 8.6 | 51 | .6% | 46 | 65% |
Marcus Robinson
| DPAR | Rank | DVOA | Rank | Catch % | |
| 2005 | 12.0 | 31 | 17.4% | 14 | 54% |
| 2006 | -0.2 | 69 | -15.5% | 69 | 50% |
Troy Williamson
| DPAR | Rank | DVOA | Rank | Catch % | |
| 2005 | 4.4 | 61 | -1.2% | 54 | 46% |
| 2006 | -0.9 | 72 | -16.1% | 70 | 49% |
As the above tables show, all three receivers performed significantly worse than in 2005, with Taylor being the lone exception. That can likely be explained by the huge increase in Taylor’s catch percentage and the likely reason for it. Catch percentage “represents the percentage of passes to this receiver completed” and refers only to complete v. incomplete passes. Drops are not taken into account. Taylor’s double digit increase is most likely due to the change in the offense. Childress’s passing game and Brad Johnson’s weak arm increased the emphasis on short passes, playing to Taylor’s strengths and making him more of a focal point in the passing game.
I could probably go on and on about how pathetic the Vikings wide receivers were this year, but I think this will probably sum it up the best. Travis Taylor was the most valuable wide out for the Vikings this year. His most productive year was 2002, when he posted a 12.3 DPAR, good enough for 35th overall, a position he equaled in 2005. To put that into perspective, in 2006, Pittsburgh, New Orleans and Arizona each had three receivers that ranked higher than 35th in DPAR, eight other teams had two receivers and nine more had one. Twenty teams had better wide receivers than the best year of the Vikings’ most productive wide out. At his most productive, Taylor would only be the second most valuable receiver on nine teams, the third on eight teams and the fourth on three teams. And he wasn’t even at his best in 2006.
[A look at the Fullbacks is coming tomorrow, and if you've missed any of the other positions, the links are below]
Tight Ends
Quarterbacks
Running Backs
Offensive Line
Defense
Monday, January 29, 2007
A Look at the Offense: Whither the Tight End
Now, I know this might come as a shock to you, but apparently the Vikings did have a tight end on their roster this year. His name’s Jermaine Wiggins, and you might remember him as the one of the more valuable tight ends last year, as his 11.9 DPAR was the tenth best at the position. That’s what happens when you average 8.2 yards per catch while hauling in 69 passes for a total of 568 yards.
Wiggins is, by all accounts, still a quality tight end. And yet, he almost dropped off the map in 2006. He caught fewer passes (46) for fewer yards (386) this year, dropping from the team’s leader in receptions to the fourth option. The question, of course, is how much of Wiggins’ massive drop in production (he only posted a 1.9 DPAR, good for 29th at the position) was due to Childress’ offense, and how much was because of a decline in the quality of his and Brad Johnson's play?
Now, not having access to Childress’ infamous play card, it’s hard to know where Wiggins fit into the offense. With that caveat, however, it looks as if the drop in Wiggins’ production has as much to do with him as it does Childress. Considering that many of the passing plays were dump offs of some sort, it would seem that a good tight end would have been more involved. And, based on the stats from Childress’ last year with the Eagles, where tight end L.J. Smith lead the team in receptions and finished second in receiving yards, it would stand to reason that the tight end would normally see a healthy amount of passes come their way. And, with Wiggins’ catch rate dropping from 76% in 2005 to 69% this season; it would seem that a large part of the blame can be laid on his shoulders.
Whether or not the Vikings choose to cut bait on their Bostonian tight end, they need to get more production from the position next year. Having a quality receiver at tight end creates mismatches no matter who the defense covers him with, and is also a very effective way to attack the cover 2 defenses that are all the rage these days. Not to mention that both Super Bowl participants have quality tight ends (the Colts have two, actually) and as we saw in the AFC Championship game, having a tight end that can run a good seam route can be the difference between going to Miami and going home.
[A look at the Wide Recievers should be coming tomorrow, and if you've missed any of the other positions, the links are below]
Quarterbacks
Runningbacks
Offensive Line
Defense
Wiggins is, by all accounts, still a quality tight end. And yet, he almost dropped off the map in 2006. He caught fewer passes (46) for fewer yards (386) this year, dropping from the team’s leader in receptions to the fourth option. The question, of course, is how much of Wiggins’ massive drop in production (he only posted a 1.9 DPAR, good for 29th at the position) was due to Childress’ offense, and how much was because of a decline in the quality of his and Brad Johnson's play?
Now, not having access to Childress’ infamous play card, it’s hard to know where Wiggins fit into the offense. With that caveat, however, it looks as if the drop in Wiggins’ production has as much to do with him as it does Childress. Considering that many of the passing plays were dump offs of some sort, it would seem that a good tight end would have been more involved. And, based on the stats from Childress’ last year with the Eagles, where tight end L.J. Smith lead the team in receptions and finished second in receiving yards, it would stand to reason that the tight end would normally see a healthy amount of passes come their way. And, with Wiggins’ catch rate dropping from 76% in 2005 to 69% this season; it would seem that a large part of the blame can be laid on his shoulders.
Whether or not the Vikings choose to cut bait on their Bostonian tight end, they need to get more production from the position next year. Having a quality receiver at tight end creates mismatches no matter who the defense covers him with, and is also a very effective way to attack the cover 2 defenses that are all the rage these days. Not to mention that both Super Bowl participants have quality tight ends (the Colts have two, actually) and as we saw in the AFC Championship game, having a tight end that can run a good seam route can be the difference between going to Miami and going home.
[A look at the Wide Recievers should be coming tomorrow, and if you've missed any of the other positions, the links are below]
Quarterbacks
Runningbacks
Offensive Line
Defense
Wednesday, January 17, 2007
A Look At the Offense--A Bit of Quarterbacking Hope
And now it’s time to get into the really ugly parts of the Vikings’ offense: the quarterbacks, tight ends and wide receivers, starting with the ugliest, the quarterbacks. The Vikings’ quarterback trio of Brad Johnson, Brooks Bollinger and Tarvaris Jackson produced a pathetic 5.36 passing yard per attempt, good for 26th in the league. Brad Johnson, the Black Hole of Suck, was, of course, a large part of that, turning in the worst season of his career, completing 61.5% of his passes for 2750 yards, 9 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. He finished with a QB rating of 72.0, and was probably the worst quarterback in the NFL to get 400+ attempts. Vikings’ fans should be thankful that he won’t be back, as he’s well into a dramatic decline phase that will likely lead to his accepting a backup role somewhere else. Or, if the Vikings are really lucky, the Lions will sign him to replace Jon Kitna as their starter.
Sadly, the Tarvaris Revolution wasn’t any more successful. His passer rating was an awful 62.5, while his DPAR of -11.9 and DVOA of -44.8% were among the worst by any quarterback this year. Then again, that’s usually what happens when a quarterback project gets playing time his first year, especially considering he was making the jump from 1-AA. Thankfully, The Revolution’s play on the field showed that he has potential. Yes, he had some awful interceptions, but he also made some amazing throws, including a beautiful (and effortless) deep ball that Troy Williamson dropped, and a pass to Mewelde Moore as Jets defenders dragged him down that Moore turned into a touchdown (demonstrating my point). He also showed off his speed and mobility (especially in the Red Zone) and a willingness to throw the ball away when called for. As he becomes more comfortable with the speed of the NFL, the stupid mistakes should decrease, leaving only the solid decision making and big play ability.
| Quarterback | DPAR (Season 1) | DVOA (Season 1) | DPAR (Season 2) | DVOA (Season 2) |
| T. Jackson | -11.9 | -44.8% | N/A | N/A |
| E. Manning | -13.3 | -28.4% | 36.9 | 41.2% |
| C. Simms | -7.6 | -33.1% | 27.5 | 6.2% |
| C. Frye | -9.3 | -25.0% | -17.5 | -22.5% |
| J. Losman | -31.3 | -24.5% | 21.2 | -2.8% |
| A. Smith | -66.5 | -97.8% | 1.5 | -12.5% |
| P. Rivers | -5.2 | -60.1% | 85.1 | 21.3% |
As I said before, Tarvaris’ ugly stats do not mean that he won’t improve. Since 2003, there have been six quarterbacks who had 250 passing attempts in their first season of playing and then became the starting quarterback the following season. Only Charlie Frye failed to improve upon his first season's performance. While this table is not predictive, it does show that Tarvaris’ stats from this year should be taken with a grain of salt. Assuming the Star Tribune wasn’t lying about Tarvaris’ work ethic, I would bet he’s more likely to become the sixth quarterback in the last four seasons to make a huge improvement in his performance during his second season.
Wednesday, January 10, 2007
A Look At the Offense--The Line
I'll be honest--as I was thinking about the performance of this year's offense, I was fully prepared to place a lot of blame on the offensive line. After watching all the penalties, the lines inability to protect the quarterback and the Vikings' average rushing game, I thought the unit was mediocre at best, and possibly as bad as the one from last year, despite the additions of Steve Hutchinson and Matt Birk.
Before I started typing however, I went searching for some numerical backing. And I'm thankful I did, because I was dead wrong. The offensive line was not the problem this year. In fact, the offensive line was the only aspect of the unit that improved from last year, according to the stats used by Football Outsiders and Cold, Hard Football Facts. Both sites use different measures, but both agree--the 2005 Vikings had one of the worst offensive lines in the league (31st according to FO, 30th according to CHFF) while the 2006 line was above average (14th according to FO, 11th according to CHFF). Clearly, the talent infusion worked well enough (at least on the left side) to vastly improve the performance of the offensive line.
That does not, however, mean that the line does not need to be upgraded this off season, or that it should not be a priority. The penalties are still an issue, and a sign of a line that is either undisciplined or not talented enough or both. Nor did my eyes deceive me--the stats also say the Vikings' line was awful at protecting the QB. And last time I checked, inexperienced quarterbacks do not mix well with continuous pressure. So while the offensive line was not the black hole of suck that I thought it was, if the Vikings want to improve their offense, one of the their goals for this off season should be to continue upgrading the offensive line, particularly on the right side and focusing on linemen that can protect the Tarvaris Revolution.
Before I started typing however, I went searching for some numerical backing. And I'm thankful I did, because I was dead wrong. The offensive line was not the problem this year. In fact, the offensive line was the only aspect of the unit that improved from last year, according to the stats used by Football Outsiders and Cold, Hard Football Facts. Both sites use different measures, but both agree--the 2005 Vikings had one of the worst offensive lines in the league (31st according to FO, 30th according to CHFF) while the 2006 line was above average (14th according to FO, 11th according to CHFF). Clearly, the talent infusion worked well enough (at least on the left side) to vastly improve the performance of the offensive line.
That does not, however, mean that the line does not need to be upgraded this off season, or that it should not be a priority. The penalties are still an issue, and a sign of a line that is either undisciplined or not talented enough or both. Nor did my eyes deceive me--the stats also say the Vikings' line was awful at protecting the QB. And last time I checked, inexperienced quarterbacks do not mix well with continuous pressure. So while the offensive line was not the black hole of suck that I thought it was, if the Vikings want to improve their offense, one of the their goals for this off season should be to continue upgrading the offensive line, particularly on the right side and focusing on linemen that can protect the Tarvaris Revolution.
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