Killing Time: Cutler, Paymah and the Draft

Jay Cutler
Apparently, Jay Cutler has asked for a trade. I've said it before and I'll say it again--the Vikings should be doing everything they can to acquire Jay Cutler. That includes giving up multiple draft picks. Remember--draft picks are about acquiring good, young talent. Cutler is 25 and he's very good. He's also under contract for three more years, and it's a relatively cheap one for a Pro Bowl quarterback.

More on Cutler:

• Grant's Tomb on the Cutler Experience.

• Kevin Seifert at ESPN's NFC North Blog breaks down the NFC North teams that might want Cutler.

Karl Paymah
The Vikings signed Karl Paymah (making it that much easier for Sports Columnists and Bloggers to make puns while writing about the Vikings) over the weekend. (H/T to Chris for the article). It sounds like Paymah is going to end up playing special teams and competing for the nickleback job, though his contract makes me think the Vikings' expect him to win that job, since his contract is worth about million dollars more than Charles Gordon or Benny Sapp's. I like that the Vikings are acquiring depth at corner, which was arguably their weakest position last year, but it doesn't sound like Paymah, Gordon or Sapp are long term answers, and Antoine Winfield Cedric Griffin are unrestricted free agents at the end of the year.

More on Paymah:

• Access Vikings has a scouting report on Paymah after entering the NFL Draft.

• The ESPN NFC North Blog has the analysis of Paymah from Scouts, Inc.

The Draft

• The National Football Post has an interesting article on offensive linemen's reach and hand size and its effect on their performance.

• New Mock Drafts: NFP has the Vikings taking WR Jeremy Maclin from Missouri in the first round, while SI has the Vikings taking WR/RB Percy Harvin from Florida and Draft Countdown has the Purple taking OT Eben Britton from Arizona with the 22nd pick and CB Sean Smith from Utah with the 54th pick.
  

• Stay tuned to find out who I'll be taking for the Vikings in the No Logo Needed Mock Draft, but I can guarantee you it won't be a wide receiver.
  

Killing Time: Contingency Plans

One of the things that makes the off season so interesting is that the Vikings can address their different needs (Quarterback, Cornerback, Offensive line) in so many different ways. What they do in the draft will depend on what they do in free agency, which will depend on whether or not they make a trade which will depend on what they do in free agency and effect how they go about their draft.

Think about it like this: If the Vikings sign Jeff Garcia to play quarterback, they've addressed that position for the season, but still need a long term solution. They also still need a corner back and bring in some help for the positions right of Steve Hutchinson. Odds are they won't have any good options for corners in free agency, but there are a few decent right tackles available. So now their first round pick is still wide open--could be Kansas St. QB Josh Freeman, could be a lineman or it could be a cornerback (with Ball St. QB Nate Davis as their second round pick). If they trade for Matt Cassel, then they're probably out a first round pick, but you know they'll be targeting cornerbacks in the second round (especially if they bring in some depth on the line). And if they can't get Cassel or Garcia, they probably have to trade up for Mark Sanchez if they want a player that has a chance of competing with Tarvaris for the starting job (please don't let this happen). Everything is contingent upon everything. Which makes any kind of mock draft just so much idle speculation until after free agency at least and why it's so hard to figure out which player the Vikings' should pick in the first round.

More on Cassel:

• DC from Grant's Tomb breaks down Cassel after watching the rebroadcast of the Pats-Jets game.

• Greg Cossel of NFL Films gives his thoughts on the reason for Cassel's success. If he's right, it's not a good sign for a team with a coach that has a slavish adherence to his own system. (h/t Football Outsiders)

More on the Draft:

• Eugene Monroe breaks down the top offensive linemen available.

• The National Football Post and the Daily Norseman have new mock drafts up. The Post has the Vikings taking Josh Freeman while Gonzo has the Purple taking center Alex Mack from Oregon.
  

NFC North:

• Football Outsiders has their pre-free agency breakdown of the off season for all four NFC North teams.
  

Killing Time: Win Expectancy, the Wild Card and the Return of Dontarrius

• Gridironmine figured out the play by play win expectancy for Sunday's game (something they've been doing for the entire season). Personally, I love win expectancy--there are very few ways to figure out the importance of a play. For example, the pass interference call changed the win expectancy 47% in the Vikings favor. Another good example--the Lions had an 85% chance of winning (their highest of the game) when they had the ball at 3rd and 1 on the Vikings' 44 with 5:33 left in the game. Without Kevin Williams stopping Justin Felton for no gain, the Purple probably lose.

• Defensive Indifference and Grant's Tomb on the game.

• The NFC East may not have surrendered the crown of "Best Division" with three losses this week, but the Cowboys, Giants and Redskins' losses created an opening for a team from another division to grab a wild card spot. I think it'll require the right 10-6 record (with most of the 6 losses to AFC teams), but I wouldn't be surprised to see the second wild card team come from the NFC South (or maybe, just maybe the NFC North. And there I go being unrealistically optimistic again. But the Vikings are 3-1 against the NFC...). I definitely would not be surprised if the Cowboys missed the playoffs, especially with Brad Johnson at quarterback for 4 games. It might just be me, but I don't see him matching Tony Romo's 7.94 yards per pass attempt.

• Speaking of Brad Johnson, Kevin Seifert has a breakdown of his final year in Minnesota. Let's just say it's not a favorable breakdown for Brad Childress' coaching style.

• Was Brad Childress' decision to kick the extra point on Sunday a good one? I'm not actually sure. On one hand, it's not a bad idea to ensure you'll only need to score once, even if the other team scores a touchdown (there was no way the Lions would go for two). On the other, the Vikings' offense was playing horrible (and needed an iffy pass interference call to get the field goal they needed). I'm pretty sure that the decision came down to Childress' confidence in the KAO, along with some concerns about a possible punt return touchdown or another big play for a touchdown putting the game out of reach. I'm not going to complain to much about the decision, mainly because I don't think it's too unreasonable to expect the Vikings' offense (or defense, via a turnover) to get in field goal range with 20 minutes remaining in the game and because I don't think the Vikings would have completed the two point conversion.

• Dontarrius Thomas is a Viking again. He's an upgrade over Vinny Circiu at middle linebacker, but no matter what happens (there really aren't a whole lot of available options at MLB in Week 6), the loss of E.J. Henderson is a big one for the Vikings and it makes it less likely that the Vikings' defense can carry the team to the playoffs.
  

• Football Outsiders on why Adrian Peterson's performance on Sunday was a lot worse than you'd think, even after factoring in the two fumbles (and, in a related post, Smarter Stats on why a rushing title doesn't mean a running back had the best season). Also, according to their statistics, Gus Frerotte's performance on Sunday was the 6th worst by a quarterback. Bernard Berrian's performance, however, was the 5th best of any wide receiver.
  

Killing Time: Lions Week!

It's Lions Week now! You know what that means--the Vikings get to play one of the worst teams in the NFL! Whooooooooooooo!!!!

Yes, I'm excited for the Lions to turn the ball over 5 times, let Adrian Peterson run for 150 yards and for the Vikings to get back to .500. How about you? While we're waiting for the inevitable blowout, let's see what's going on around these here internets.

• Antoine Winfield--Defensive Player of the Week. Winfield has unquestionably been the Vikings' Defensive MVP so far this year and it's not unreasonable to believe he's the overall MVP either. That snow storm that kept Winfield here until he signed was a God send--I hope it gets a bonus at some point. Jon Kitna and Kevin Seifert agree--Winfield is one of the best cornerbacks in the league (buying his jersey was definitely one my best decisions).
  

• It's all the more important that Winfield continue to play like this, now that E.J. Henderson is out for the season. Kevin Seifert has a short, but good piece on how important E.J. Henderson is to the Purple's defense. He's right--E.J. Henderson might have been the best player on the defense, which says a lot when you consider that defense includes the Williams, Antoine Winfield and Jared Allen. Ben Leber and Chad Greenway are going to have to step up, or the defense is going to run into some serious problems.
  

• According to Football Outsiders, the Vikings have a 25.3% chance of making the playoffs this year, up from 24.0% before Monday night's game. History tells us that 19.4% of 2-3 teams have made the playoffs in a 17 week season, but that doesn't factor in talent, performance or the remaining schedule. History also tells us that if the Vikings beat the Lions, they'll have a 40.0% chance of making the playoffs, but if they lose to the Lions, they'll only have a 8.7% chance of making it. That last number, of course, does not factor in the likely improvement Leslie Frazier would bring as head coach.

• Speaking of stats, Smarter Statistics argues for the use of advanced statistics in the NFL.

• Advanced NFL Stats has the Win Probability graph from Monday night's game. Unsurprisingly, it looks like a cardiograph.
  

Killing Time: From 0-2 to the Playoffs

Yesterday, I mentioned that the Vikings only have an 11.4% chance of making the playoffs after losing their first two games. They've dug themselves a hole that only 27 teams have pulled themselves out of since the advent of the 16 game schedule, and only three teams have gotten out of an 0-2 hole in the last five years. So what did last year's Super Bowl Champions, the 2006 Chiefs and the 2003 Eagles all have in common?

They all won their next two games to get back to .500. It didn't hurt that only the Giants had to beat a team that made the playoffs that year in order to win two straight, but none of the three teams had an easy next two games, as all but the Chiefs faced teams that finished around .500.

The Giants ripped off six straight wins after their 0-2 start, but the Chiefs and Eagles both lost their fifth game to fall to 2-3 and still rebounded. Despite that loss, the Eagles still managed to win 12 games in 2003, while the Chiefs ended up at an uninspiring 9-7.

Which means that Sunday's game against the Panthers and the following game against the Saints are pretty much must wins. A loss against the Panthers would drop the Vikings' playoffs odds to 3.4% and pretty much end any hope of the Purple making the playoffs.

I'm not the only one that's thinking like this either--the Pioneer Press has a comparison of the Vikings and last year's Giants.

Links:
The loss of Bryant McKinnie for the first four games has emphasized the ideas in Michael Lewis' "The Blind Side". Advanced NFL Stats and Sabermetric Research both have pieces on the underlying idea behind the book--that the Left Tackle is the second most important position on the offense.

Defensive Indifference on Brad Childress' play calling.

Vikings' Now on Tarvaris' Red Zone issues.

Daily Norseman on why the Vikings' won't be trading for Jeff Garcia.

Terrell Owens passed Chris Carter for second on the all time touchdown list on Monday Night. I can't say I'm particular happy to see Carter passed by Owens, even if I don't hate Owens in the way a lot of folks do. What I was really unhappy about was the fact that Owens managed to close 20 points of a 34 point lead I had in fantasy football in the first half of the game. That second half was pure torture after what I thought had been an easy win.

Killing Time: Playoff Odds, Recaps and ESPN

Its pretty obvious that Sunday's home opener against Indianapolis is a big game. Aside from the numerous players that need to rebound after a poor first game (paging Mr. Allen, paging Mr. Allen), the difference between 1-1 and 0-2 is a big one (not to mention the fact that Green Bay gets Detroit on Sunday, which means they're likely to be 2-0). OK--stop looking at me like I'm a bit slow. I know its obvious that 1-1 is better than 0-2. I know you know that too. What you probably don't know is how big a difference it makes in the odds the Vikings will make the playoffs. The folks at Football Outsiders know, and they calculated the odds of a team making the playoffs at various points in the season in the most recent Pro Football Prospectus (Have I mentioned that I love that book? You really should go buy it if you haven't already). They did so by looking at how where each team from 1978-2007 (excluding 1993 and its 18 week season) was after each game and calculating the percentage of teams at 1-0, 2-3, 9-6, etc that made the playoffs.

It's by no means definitive, but it gives a good sense of how important each game is. And let me tell you-this upcoming game is important. The difference between the playoff odds of an 1-1 team and a 0-2 team is one of the larger gaps created by a one game swing. At 0-1, the Vikings current have a 24.7% chance of making the playoffs. If they win, their chances increase to 41.0%. If the lose, their chances fall to 11.4%. That's a 30% swing and a loss would leave the Purple in a hole that it would take the Vikings three straight wins to dig themselves out of and get back to having a 50% chance of making the playoffs. So while Sunday's game won't necessarily make or break the Purple's season, a loss would put them in a hole that it will be very hard to dig their way out of.

More From Monday Night
Defensive Indifference, Luft's Locker Room, Skol Vikes and Andrew Sundquist from Pro Football Talk all have recaps of Monday Night's game.

Advanced Football Stats looks at Brad Childress' decision to go for two.

Football Outsiders has their Week 1 DVOA ratings up. Unsurprisingly, the Vikings are 22nd overall in VOA. Their DAVE rating, which is much better at predicting order of finish, is 5th though, and they were one of only two top 15 teams in DAVE that had to play a top 5 team last week (Green Bay is currently 2nd).

Shutdown Corner on the Aaron Rodgers' Bandwagon.

Smarter Stats, a new blog from the Washington Post, on the best statistic to rank pass rushers by. In case you were wondering, he had Jared Allen with sixth most sacks, hurries and knockdowns, despite his missing two games last year. Which means that, despite his missing the first game this year, he can still be one of the top pass rushers statistically again in 2008.

Finally, Cold Hard Football Facts on Tony Kornheiser and the Big Lead on the entire broadcast. The consensus? It was bad, real bad.

Killing Time: Thoughts on Week 1

Man, it's nice to have the NFL back for real, after the tease that was the Thursday night game. And I say that despite having my options consist of the Rams-Eagles blowout, the overhyped Cowboys-Browns game and a game involving Brett Favre. This week, it didn't matter--I was glued to my couch. I'm sure most of you felt the same way (and can't wait until tomorrow night when we finally get to see the new Purple People Eaters in action for real). A few thoughts on the first Sunday:

• Tom Brady's season ending knee injury opens up the AFC in a way it hasn't been in a long time. The road to the Super Bowl has gone through the Patriots almost every year since 2003, but it won't this year without Brady. The Patriots' offense is still loaded, but Matt Cassell won't be able to run it as well as Brady (Duh), which is a problem, because the Patriots defense is good, but its got holes that need a top offense to cover up. Then again, if Matt Cassell is smart, he'll just throw it Randy Moss every play. It worked today.

• I couldn't tell if the Rams were that bad, or if the Eagles were that good. Probably both. Either way, the Eagles, assuming that McNabb and Westbrook stay healthy (which is a big if) have Super Bowl talent. DeSean Jackson looks like he'll provide McNabb with his best deep threat since Terrell Owens. He was all over the field today and made an impact in a way few rookie receivers are able to.

• The Browns showed flashes of the team they could be today, but didn't seem ready for the opening game. They were dropping passes, missing blocks and were unable to put any pressure on Tony Romo (except for a few plays where Shaun Rogers decided he didn't want to be blocked--Rogers is your classic disengaged player, able to dominate one play, but disappear the next five. He's not going to be the answer to the Browns' problems). They have one of the hardest schedules in the NFL this year, and they can't afford to start slow because they aren't executing at the same level as their opponent.

• I am not happy about my first two fantasy picks right now--Stephen Jackson and Carson Palmer netted me exactly 9 points this week and both of their teams looked lost. Needless to say, I didn't win this week.
  

• If Micheal Turner (220 yards) and Jerious Norwood (93 yards) can rack up 313 yards on the ground against Detroit, Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor are going to really enjoy the Vikings' two games against the Lions.

• The Steelers had the most impressive win of the week so far, absolutely destroying the Texans, a trendy pick to make the playoffs this year (I still expect them to, but they got destroyed). The Steelers are a team I expected to miss the playoffs because of its hard schedule and porous offensive line, but if their line plays as well as they did today, they are going to be a Super Bowl favorite.

Tomorrow, I'll have a preview of the Vikings' opening game. Just a few short hours until the season is finally here.

Killing Time: Favre Fiasco and Schedule Analysis

Since I have no idea what to think about the ongoing Favre Fiasco, and I'm too worried that Vikes Geek might be right about the Interception King might be released this weekend, I avoided thinking about football last night and watched the Twins climb within a half game of first place with a comeback win against the White Sox (with a little help from the fans in icing Chicago's starting pitcher).

Anyway, if you're interested, I wrote a post for Twinkietown analyzing the schedules for the three AL Central contenders over the final two months. And while the Twins have more road games than the Tigers or White Sox, they still have the easiest schedule. I don't know if it'll be enough to make the difference in the race, but its more than enough to give you hope that the Twins might just pull out the AL Central.

I'm going to sit down this weekend and start writing up my previews for the upcoming NFL season, so check back on Monday, when, barring something crazy happening, I'll have my first preview up. Let's hope nothing too crazy happens.

Killing Time: Hall of Fame, Favre Fiasco, Training Camp and More

Lots of great stuff out there on the World Wide Web to look at, if you know where to look. And if you don't, well, that's what this post is for.

• Football Outsiders took a look at the Vikings' Hall of Fame candidates and Gonzo at Daily Norseman has a post discussing the various candidates. Aside from the obvious players (Randall McDaniel and Chris Carter) who have yet to be inducted, the oversight of Jim Marshall and Mick Tinglehoff is inexcusable. The fact those two aren't in is much worse than Art Monk not being elected until this year. Heck, Chris Doleman not being in is probably worse than Art Monk not being elected until this year. Or at least comparable.
  

• The Favre fiasco is gaining steam, with the Packers offering him $20 million to stay home and some semi reputable people starting to believe that he'll end up in Purple. While I would enjoy the reaction this guy would have to Favre running onto Lambeau Field in Purple on September 8th.
  

• Joe Posnanski has a great piece on Favre and his legacy. I think he's probably right about Favre not ruining how people will remember him, but what he is doing is making it hard for the media to worship him in the way that they have, which is perfectly fine with me.
  

• While the Vikings' schedule looks harder than normal (due almost entirely to having to face the AFC South, which had all of its teams finish with records of at least .500 last year), Jason Winter looked at the only other time that happened and found there was a drop off the next year, which is good. Also good? The fact that Payton Manning isn't scheduled to put on the pads until the final preseason game.

• Grant's Tomb answers the question--What if the Vikings had traded for Jason Taylor?

• If all you really care about is how the Vikings have looked at training camp, Vikings Valhalla has a ton of pictures for your enjoyment, and Skol Vikes has a wrap up of the first week of camp.
  

Killing Time: The Sober Guy and NFC North Notes

ESPN the Magazine has a feature article on the Vikings' newest acquisition, one Jared Allen, and on the drinking scene that is the NFL It's an interesting read and one that will hopefully assuage any lingering fears you might still have about Allen's ability to stay out of trouble.

Packers

• The Packers are still attempting to acquire Jason Taylor from the Dolphins, but if they're going to get him, they're going to have to be creative. I'm not a big fan of seeing Taylor in the Green & Gold, but I'm not too worried about it, since the Packers already have two very good defensive ends (and KGB will be back in time for Week 1). Adding a third is almost overkill and would probably cost the Packers more than Taylor adds.

• Daunte Culpepper turned down a contract offer from the Packers to be Aaron Rodgers' backup because he wants to start somewhere. Maybe not the best decision for Culpepper's career, but definitely the best move for my sanity.

• Since they're a publicly owned company, the Packers' books are open and they show that the owners' concerns about the rising cost of players is a legitimate one. The teams are still making a big profit, but when your profit drops thirty some percent because your personnal costs increased by twenty some percent, well, that's something that likely needs to be addressed.
  

Bears:

• 25 year old defensive tackle Tommie Harris signed a four year extension with da Bears, a contract that should prevent Chicago's defense from getting too bad, even as Brian Urlacher and company get older. The contract also prevents da Bears from having to deal with another messy "Lance Briggs" style renogiation, which I'm sure people in Chicago are thankful about.
  
• Da Bears will be starting a rookie running back, an announcement that wasn't too surprising after Cedric Benson was released. It says something about your running game that a complete unknown like Matt Forte is considered an upgrade before he's even put NFL pads on.
  

Lions:

• Matt Millon remains in charge of the Lions, and the Lions continue to remain irrelevant.
  

Killing Time-KG's Title, WhatIf Sports and Tiger

The first words out of KG's mouth last night? “This is for everyone in ‘Sota!”. So yeah, I think wwtb? has the right idea on how to react to the Celtics' title.

KFan has their early 53 man roster projections up and there's no real surprises. For the first time in awhile, the Purple are pretty much set at every position going into camp. Really, the only question marks are the last two or three roster spots and who's going to return punts and kicks. I can't say I disagree with KFAN's predictions, though I'd like to see Jaymar Johnson make the team as the sixth receiver/punt returner and though they didn't make any predictions about who'll be the returners, I'm going to mad if anyone besides Aundrae Allison fields the open kickoff at Lambeau Field.

WhatIf Sports has a preview up for the NFC North, and it's one we can all enjoy. The Vikings in first with an 11-5 record (and a possibility of 14-2)? Yeah, I can take that. Bernard Berrian with 71 receptions, 1,160 yards and 8 touchdowns? Yeah, I'll take that too. Tarvaris Jackson throwing for more yards and more touchdowns that Brett Farve II? Yeah, I'll definitely take that.

There's a new Vikings blog, Defensive Indifference (that's been added to my pathetically uncomprehensive links on the sidebar) and it's a good one. His thoughts on where Adrian Peterson stands historically are well worth a read, as is post comparing Tarvaris to other second year quarterbacks.

If you click on one link in this post, make it this one, which goes to Joe Posnanski's post on Tiger Woods and his victory in the U.S. Open. I'm a big Tiger fan for two reasons-the first goes back to a nickname I picked up in college, the second because I want to see greatness, and Tiger is, unquestionably, great. As someone who didn't get into basketball until the KG era (meaning after the Jordan era) I have never really been able to say "I saw the greatest when he was at his best" without throwing out some caveat (steroids for Barry Bonds, Randy Moss' refusal to always give 100%, etc. ). That's not true of Tiger. He is, quite simply, the greatest golfer ever. And I want him to blow by Jack Nicklaus' 18 Majors and Sam Snead's 72 tournament wins, so that I can know, without a shadow of a doubt, that I got to watch the greatest golfer that ever played the game and that I got to enjoy watching his entire career. That's the real reason I'm pulling for Tiger. And for once, the guy/team I'm pulling for is coming through, which is a nice feeling.

Killing Time--Quickly

Working on a few things (both at work and for new posts), but here are few things that I've had turn up.

First, Adrian Peterson's going to be on the cover of ESPN the Magazine for their fantasy football issue. There's a video, if you're interested (thanks to Ben for the tip). Now let's all go get some rum, cigars and fried chicken and offer it to Jobu to keep any magazine cover curses from hurting the Purple Jesus (who, by the way, can probably hit a curve ball).

Secondly, Pro Football Talk is reporting that LaCharles Bentley may be coming to Minnesota to compete with Matt Birk for the starting center job. Personally, I'm with Gonzo of the Daily Norseman here--that makes little sense for the Vikings and it makes no sense for Bentley, unless the Purple promise him they'll cut Birk, something I just can't see happening, since his injury history makes him a big question mark. I assume Bentley would rather go to some team that he'd be able to win the starting job (and there's really no way he'd beat out Birk on the field).

Finally, Paul DePodesta, the assistant GM of the San Diego Padres (and whom you may remember from the book Moneyball) has his own blog and he has a very good post on the MLB draft that is applicable to almost all walks of life, including the NFL (which is why Football Outsiders linked to it). In it, he discusses the difference between Good/Bad Processes and Good/Bad Outcomes. I think the Vikings have been put together is, generally, a "Good Process", which means that they'll be able to be successful for more than just a year or two. Of course, in football, where luck can play a much larger factor than baseball, a "Good Process" doesn't guarantee a "Good Outcome"--hopefully, it'll be enough for one this year though.

Killing Time: Current Vikings on the All Time Leaderboard

As you may have noticed, I've been playing around on Pro Football Reference lately, mainly checking out quarterbacks, but I also took a look at where the Vikings' current roster ranks among the Vikings' leaders all time. Surprisingly (since it seems most of the players haven't been in Purple that long), they are quite a few near the top of the charts.

For instance, Adrian Peterson is currently 21st all time in rushing yards, but, if he's able to match his rookie total each year, it'll only take him about 4 seasons to pass Robert Smith for the franchise record. He should be in the top 20 within a game or so (he only needs 168 yards to pass Rick Fenney) and in the top ten by the end of the season--he needs 1208 yards to pass Fran Tarkenton. And what does it say about the longevity of your franchise's running backs when your tenth and eleventh all time rushers are quarterbacks? I mean, Chester Taylor should crack the top ten this year as well (he only needs 489 yards to pass Tark), and that'll be after three seasons, only one as a full time running back. No wonder the Vikings' thought trading for Herschel Walker was a good idea.

Some more rankings:

Peterson and Taylor are 18th and 16th in rushing touchdowns, and each could crack the top ten with 10 touchdowns.

Jim Kleinsasser has the most receiving yards as a Viking on the team, with 1374 yards but he's still in 28th place all time. He would need 482 yards to pass Qadry Ismail and crack the top twenty and he would need 1848 yards to crack the top ten. Bobby Wade is second to him on the team, but he's in 59th place, with 647 yards. Sidney Rice is 78th all time. And unlike with rushing yards, one good season won't get you into the top twenty--you need 1009 receiving yards just to crack the top 50.

If you thought running back was a weak position for the Vikings, don't look at the quarterback position. Tarvaris Jackson could crack the top ten in all time passing yards as a Viking even if he throws for fewer yards this year than he did last year. He needs less than a thousand yards. It'll be a little harder for him to crack the top ten in passing touchdowns though, since he needs twelve, but not appreciably. Seriously, all you need to know about the all time quarterbacks for the Vikings is that Jeff George is 10th all time in passing touchdowns for the Purple, and 12th all time in passing yards. He only played in 12 games for the Vikings, and only started 10.

After Week 13, the Vikings had both the franchise leader in kickoffs returned for a touchdown (Aundrae Allison, with 1) and punts returned for a touchdown (Mewelde Moore, with 2). Of course, Allison is tied with ten other players for the lead, and Moore was tied with David Palmer. Yeah...the Vikings aren't so great at scoring on returns. Thankfully, they signed Maurice Hicks (zero return touchdowns) to return kicks!

Tackles are a weird stat, in that they haven't been recorded consistently, but E.J. Henderson and Antoine Winfield are 10th and 11th all time for the Vikings. That should be taken with a grain of salt though, since the site doesn't have a player listed on the tackles leader board from before 1983, and I have a feeling some of the players from the Bud Grant era had more tackles in Purple than Henderson and Winfield.

You should use the same grain of salt with these tidbits (sacks weren't recorded until 1982), but Kevin Williams has the seventh most sacks of any Viking. Jared Allen only needs double digits to crack the top 25, and, if Ray Edwards sets the record for most sacks in a year this season, he'll be seventh all time.

Darren Sharper only needs two interceptions to crack the top ten players with the most picks as a Viking. And yes, that was a great decision by the Packers to let him walk because of his age, though still not as bad as the Redskins decision to trade Paul Krause after four seasons for Marlin McKeever (yeah, I didn't know who he was either) and a 7th round pick. If Sharper does get those two interceptions, I'd be willing to bet that he's the only player to be in the top ten for interceptions on two different teams (he's fifth all time on the Packers' list).

Killing Time: MLB Draft-A Look Back at 2001

I know, I know, this is a football blog. But, there's not a whole lot happening in the NFL right now, so I'm going to write about what's interesting to me (which, I promise, will be football again soon), and right now, that's the MLB Draft. Now, I don't know enough about the prospects available this year to have any idea who the Twins should be looking to select with the two first round picks they have. I'm not going to break it down like I did for the NFL Draft (though, if you're looking for mock drafts, you can find one here, here, or here and if you want a organizational breakdown, Seth has a great one at his site). Rather, I thought I'd take a look at the choice the Twins made in 2001, when they took a high school kid from Minnesota #1 overall instead of a stud college pitcher from USC, a choice, which, at the time, I was angry about.

Now, I still think that Mark Prior's career would have turned out differently had he been drafted by the Twins. He had no history of injuries prior to getting hurt in 2004, the season after he averaged, at the young age of 23, 113 pitches a start, and over 120 pitches a start in September and the Postseason. The Twins wouldn't have treated him like that. That being said, if you look at what they've done, not what they could have done, the Twins made the right choice. Using Win Shares to evaluate their careers, Joe Mauer comes out the clear leader, as he has 90 to Prior's 70. He's also playing this year, something Prior is not.

What Mauer is not, however, is the Win Share leader for players drafted in 2001. That title goes to Mark Teixeira, who was picked 5th overall, and who has 120 Win Shares. Mauer's also been passed by David Wright, who has 111 Win Shares and was picked 38th overall. Just because Teixeira has been the best on the field, however, does not mean he would have been the best choice for the Twins with the #1 pick, because the cost of the player has to be factored in.

The honor of best value likely goes to David Wright, although Mauer is a close second. Wright's been paid $7.906 million over the course of his career, including his signing bonus and he recently signed a contract that will keep him in New York through 2013 that's worth an additional $67.5 million. Mauer's been paid $16.175 million (although, to be fair, Wright's signing bonus of $960,000 would have been a lot closer to the $5.15 million signing bonus Mauer received had he been drafted #1 instead of #38) and his contract will keep him in Minnesota through 2010, at a cost of $23 million over the next two years. Those salary totals are only a few million more than the $12.5 million Teixeira is making this year, in a one year contract. Teixeira has made $39.4 million in his career, and unlike Wright and Mauer, he's going to be a free agent next year and will be receiving a huge contract, likely from the Yankees, who need a first baseman.

So while Mauer wasn't the best value of any player chosen in the 2001 Draft, he was the second best value, behind only Wright, and the third best player overall. Considering how much of a crap shoot the MLB Draft is, it's hard to complain about the Twins' decision back in 2001.

Killing Time: Please Pass on Brook Lopez

Pass On Lopez Please
When the T-Wolves ended up with the third pick, after a cursory glance at the mock drafts, I thought that Brook Lopez was the best player available. I was wrong. The Orlando Draft Camp is going on now, and while Lopez isn't playing, he did get measured and ran some drills. It did not go well.

Luckily for Lopez, he's a legit seven feet tall in shoes. (Which is good, because he'll likely be playing in shoes. Then again, when an inch can make a difference in high you're drafted, it makes sense to measure the players without shoes, so you can see who's wreaking their joints by wearing lifts like Kevin Love). Of course, the worst thing that can happen for a seven footer is to be labeled a stiff, a label that Lopez might have earned by turning in the worst time in the lane agility drill and the 3/4 court sprint (what's really sad is that Brian Butch participated in the drills). His vertical wasn't all that great either, at only 30.5 inches. That, combined with the fact that he never shot higher than 50% in a season (which, for a post player, is really, really bad-for comparison Spencer Tollackson shot over 50% his final three years, and Roy Hibbert shot over 59% his final three years) and the fact that he wasn't the best rebounder (his rebounding percentages barely cracked the top 200 last year) says that he's more likely to flop than be a star.

More Basketball

• Flip Saunders was let go by the Pistons today. He had a reputation, deservedly so, I think, of not knowing how to coach in the playoffs. The thing is, he managed to make the conference finals four times (once with the Wolves, and three times with the Pistons). That's pretty good. And while he never made it to the Finals, he was only favored to once, against the LeBrons last year, and even then, his team didn't have the best player on the court, which, as they found out when LeBron took over the series, makes things a lot harder. Then again, a better coach probably would have figured out a way to defend the Cavs (see Popovich, Greg).

• The Wolves have a lot more going on this offseason aside from deciding on who to select with the third pick and the folks over at the TWolves Blog discussed what they'd do if they were in charge. And yes, I think they're more qualified than Kevin McHale.

Only Tangentially Related to Football

• Bryant McKinnie's lawyer is working on getting him into a diversion program so the charges against him are dismissed. Either way, it looks like we'll see Artis Hicks start some games at left tackle.
  

• Michael Lombardi of SI.com has a blueprint for teams to follow in case 2010 actually ends up being a capless year.

• People in Chicago apparently ate some bad Polish sausage or something...

Killing Time: A Video (And Photo) Fix

• The Star Tribune has a video interview with Brad Childress, which would be nice on its own, but since it features a lot of footage from OTAs as well, it's definitely worth a look. If you need even more of a fix, Mr. Cheer or Die has a ton of photos from OTAs that might sate your craving for a little while (but in end, as we all know, a little bit is never enough to quell the addiction.)
  

• Football Outsiders has finally posted their breakdown of the NFC North after the draft. And one doesn't have to be statistically inclined to agree with their basic premise-the division has a lot of shaky quarterbacks and whichever team gets the most out of their shaky QB will likely win the division. Also, the Lions continue to be a messed up organization.

• The worst draft in Vikings' history? Well, it wasn't the 2005 draft, if you asked the "experts" prior to the 2005 season, as Pacifist Viking demonstrates. And if you're wondering why the Redskins were willing to trade for Erasmus James' three sacks and extra long injury report, it's because his former coach at Wisconsin is their new defensive line coach.
  

• Brett Farve was arrested yesterday (I suggest you click the link before you get too excited).

• Gonzo at Daily Norseman is killing time this offseason by projecting the Vikings' 53 man roster. So far, he's done a projection of the depth chart at Wide Receiver, Running Back and Quarterback.

• Finally, if you're looking to torture yourself, the NFL Network is happy to oblige. Me? I don't think I'll have enough time, since I'll be too busy seeing how many of my toenails I can rip off with my bare hands before I pass out.
  

Killing Time-It's Still May

May
You know it’s May if you’re unhappy with a column by Peter King because it doesn’t definitively tell you if Tarvaris Jackson is the answer at quarterback. King’s a big name, has great access, rambles about stuff he shouldn’t talk about or doesn’t understand and is a massive suck up, but no matter what you think about him, it’s unreasonable to be angry about the fact that he can’t satisfy your questions about Tarvaris at quarterback next season.

2005 Draft
Marcus Johnson. That’s it. He’s the only one left from the Vikings’ 2005 draft now that the Purple have traded Erasmus James for a conditional seventh rounder. Ugh. Honestly, that offseason has to rank up there as one of the worst offseasons of all time. Not only did the Vikings’ manage to turn two first round picks, one in the top ten and one in the top twenty, into nothing after three seasons, they also managed to turn Randy Moss, the only wide receiver that can seriously be compared with Jerry Rice, into Jaymar Johnson in the same time period. (Ok. Now, obviously Rice is better than Moss, but, if you have to debate who the best wide receiver of all time is, who else would you match up against Rice? Is there anyone else you could throw out there to challenge Rice’s spot without getting laughed at?) Now, I have nothing against Johnson (Actually, I’m hoping he’ll be good enough to be the punt returner this year), but seriously, Jaymar Johnson for Randy Freaking Moss? To be fair, the Purple got one good season out of Napolean Harris out of the deal as well, but as of right now, after trading away the only receiver that’s in the same conversation as Jerry Rice, a player that was so much better than all of the Vikings’ receivers last year that he would have been triple covered every play if he’d been in Purple, (defenses would have employed the rarely used 8-3 defense against the Vikings—8 in the box to stop Peterson and Taylor, 3 on Moss and leave everybody else open) they have only Jaymar Johnson to show for it. The incompetence the Vikings showed that offseason is mind boggling. You almost have to try to be that bad. Or be Matt Millen.

Backing Up McKinnie
Of course, if you want to be optimistic, one of the bright spots of the 2005 draft is that it gave the Vikings’ their back up left tackle, whom they had to use their first day of OTA’s (by the way—I hate this acronym and I hate the name “Offseason Training Activites”. The NFL needs to either come up with a better name or hire someone to do it for them, because OTAs is so clunky that it’s painful to type). The first four games on the Vikings’ schedule don’t look very easy right now, though they may be a little easier for the left tackle, who won't have to face a team in the top half of the league in adjusted sack rate last year until the fourth game against Tennessee. If McKinnie is out for four games (and one would think he’ll get hit with a suspension for his latest run in), things could still get really ugly fast if his backup can’t handle the job though, as the Packers, Colts and Panthers all have really talented players at defensive end. Luckily the Vikings don’t have to rely on some unsigned free agent that nobody else wanted, because they drafted Johnson in the 2nd round in 2005. So they’ve got that going for them, which is nice.

Joe Posnanski
If you don’t know who Joe Posnanski is, well, that’s a problem for you. I’ve been traveling a lot by bus lately, which means that I have a lot of time to kill. I’ve done so by reading Posnanski’s work, both The Soul of Baseball and his blog. And when I say his blog, I mean almost all of it, starting with his entries from last October. At my heart I’m a reader, not a writer (if that makes any sense, and if it doesn’t, well, that’s because I’m a reader, not a writer) and when I get something worth reading, I keep going until I’ve run out of material. I took down the 7th Harry Potter book in a night. The various Prospectuses rarely last more than a week for me (though I do tend to reread them). I just don’t stop reading until I’m done. And only one other blogger has ever reached the “I want to read everything they’ve ever wrote including stuff that's really old and not even remotely topical anymore” level for me and that was Bat-Girl. His blog is that good and his book is that good. So go read it. And stop judging me—I am at peace with how cool I am (well, technically, uncool, but you know what I meant).

Killing Time: CBA, OTA, and the Third Pick

It's been a long 2 weeks. Personal Computer problems combined with a lot of work have prevented me from posting, but rest assured, I haven't left yet (comforting, isn't it). A lot has gone on, so let's dive right in:

The End of the NFL?
The owners opted out of the CBA yesterday, for a variety of reasons that Pro Football Talk covered pretty well: the high cost of credit, a rookie pay scale and their inability to recoup bonuses when a player misbehaves. Now, they have until 2011 to reach a deal with the players union, so its not quite time to panic yet, but there are some warning signs on the horizon, including the players union's desire to get a greater percentage of revenue and the fact that the owners aren't afraid of using replacement players. The former is troubling because it shows a sticking point for negotiations, while the latter shows that the owners aren't willing to back down, which isn't a good sign when a compromise needs to be reached. There's a lot of time before this becomes an issue (heck, there's a lot of time before the uncapped year in 2010), but still, it's something to worry about, if you feel like worrying about something.

OTAs
Let's hope that John Sullivan (or Dan Mozes) is ready to start next season, because this is Matt Birk's last season in Purple. He wants an extension and he's willing to skip workouts for it. The Vikings don't want to give him a long term extension because he's getting old. Even a Packers fan could connect the dots and see that Birk is gone after this year. That's not true of Chester Taylor, however. The Vikings have him signed for another two years and would be stupid to trade him, even with the emergence of Adrian Peterson. Taylor's an every down back, something the Vikings need in case Peterson gets hurt again or continues to struggle like he did at the end of last season. And the return for a running back would not be high enough to justify relying on Maurice Hicks to step in and fill the position.

Wolves Get the #3 Pick
I'll admit- I actually watched the lottery last night (only the part where they were slotting the teams, not the boring banter and introductions part). It wasn't on purpose, but once I flipped to it, I stayed with it. And I just knew that the Wolves were going to end up with the third pick once they ended up against the Dwayne Wade and the city of Chicago's television market. Now, the third pick has yielded some great players, and that's not even counting Michael Jordan. Carmelo Anthony, Deron Williams, Pau Gasol, Baron Davis and Kevin McHale were all chosen #3 overall. Of course, so were Darius Miles, Mike Dunleavy and Christian Laettner.

And, like pretty much every other Wolves' fan, I immediately thought of Laettner and the 1992 draft after the Wolves got the third pick. And I think there are comparisons to be drawn beyond the Wolves draft position, but the depth of the draft was different that year. Now, I wasn't exactly paying attention at the time, being a little young for that type of thing, but it seems that there were three players that were considered top flight talent in that draft (ie, possible #1 choices), in Alonzo Mourning, Shaq and Laettner. This year, there are only two players, Michael Beasley and Derrick Rose and no consensus on the #3 pick, as the TWolves Blog points out. Personally, I think Brook Lopez would be the best pick for the Wolves, since he would allow them to play Al Jefferson at his natural position. I don't know enough about Danilo Gallinari to have an opinion on him, but if he's the best player available, Corey Brewer and his 19% 3 point shooting shouldn't stop them from picking him. O.J. Mayo and Jared Bayless were both gunners in college and neither one is a true point guard, which means they're basically the same player as Randy Foye and Rashad McCants.

No matter who the Wolves end up taking, odds are they won't live up to their billing. Of the Wolves draft picks under Kevin McHale, only Wally Sczerbiak (1999 draft), Kevin Garnett (1995 draft) and Stephen Marbury (1996 draft) have made an All Star team. And quotes like this from McHale don't exactly inspire confidence:

"It's supposedly a two-man draft. I love being third. We have eight players that you look at in this draft and you really, really like. It gives us a lot of flexibility at that third spot."

So yes, I fully expect the Wolves to add another guard that's too short to play the two spot but can't play the point. Or maybe they'll trade away their choice for Josh Howard or something. I don't know how they'll do it, but they'll do it. Which is why it's probably for the best that they didn't get the first or second pick, because I couldn't have taken it if they'd messed that up somehow (and rest assured, they would have).