Even the Vikings Aren't Perfect

Before I go into some of the negative aspects of last Friday's let me a take a moment to welcome Robert Ferguson to the Vikings. I wrote about his potential earlier, and while he's not quite a "good" receiver, that doesn't mean he won't be able to contribute. Hopefully, he'll also be able to impart some veteran wisdom to all the young'ins the Vikings have at the position.

Now, back to Friday. First off, the Vikings need to address their kick off units. Alex Reyes is awful at kicking off. His inability to kick it past the fifteen yard line played a large role in the Jets' great field position, but the coverage team should share the blame as well. It seemed like the Jets' kick returner was breaking into the second and third levels of the coverage almost every time. Not good. And the Vikings' kick (and punt) return games looked about as mediocre as last year's.

Now, this might seem tremendously important, but it is. Field position has a huge impact on a teams' ability to score and it's ability to prevent the other team from scoring. This is especially true when you consider the way the Vikings' offense and defense work. Every fewer yard the Vikings' offense has to go to score makes it that much more likely they'll actually get into scoring position. It works the same with the Tampa-2 defense the Vikings employ. Every additional yard the opposing offense has to go makes it more likely that they'll screw up their drive somehow, something the Tampa-2 is designed to lengthen anyway. This concept has been part of the conventional wisdom for awhile, and the Football Outsiders have done some work with it as well (Scroll Down to "Field Position is Fluid"). Add in the fact that the Vikings are clearly trying to emphasize the importance of field position by their style of play and it's not a good sign that they spent most of last year losing the field position battle and will likely continue to do so this year.

The other concern that arose from Friday's game was the Jets' focus on attacking Cedric Griffin. Obviously, his half hearted "attempt" at tackling Justin McCareins was inexcusable, but it was the Jets' obvious desire to throw to his side of the field (and by obvious, I mean even the announcers noticed) that worries me. Eric Mangini is a pretty good coach and if the Jets were throwing left every time, you can be sure there was a reason for it. I'm not worried about Griffin's abilities however. He earned that starting position last year by playing well. The Pro Football Prospectus had him as the 14th most successful defensive back in coverage, breaking up 58% of passes thrown his way. While he was only thrown at 61 times, that success rate was better than Antoine Winfield's, who successful defended 56% of the 91 plays in his coverage area (oh, and don't worry too much about Darren Sharper--he was the 4th best defensive back in coverage last year, successfully defending 69% of the plays targeting his coverage).

So why were the Jets so focused on throwing at Cedric Griffin? The Star Tribune postulated that it was partly due to a respect for Antoine Winfield's abilities and partly due to the Jets' success last year against Griffin last year. To be honest, I don't really buy the first rational. Make no mistake--I think Winfield is a tremendous cornerback (I even have his jersey). A lot of that is due to his ability to stop the run (PFP had him as the best corner in the NFL at stopping the run by a long shot). He's good at coverage, but he's not Deion Sanders. And something about the second reason bothers me. Griffin is a good corner, possibly as good as Antoine Winfield in coverage. And it's not like any of the other teams the Vikings played after the Jets really went out of their way to target Griffin.

So is the benefit in targeting him so great that it outweighs the benefits of throwing to all parts of the field? I wouldn't think so. But the last time a good coach decided to focus on one part of the Vikings' defense, the Patriots waltzed out of the Metrodome with an easy win and in the process created the blueprint for success against the Vikings' defense.

Robert Ferguson--an Interlude

I'll have my final thoughts on Friday's game up later today, but first, I wanted to discuss the news that the Vikings may be close to adding a veteran wide receiver. Robert Ferguson, formerly of the Green Bay Packers, appears to favor the Purple. And to add even further fuel to the fire, he missed his original flight to Houston, although he did eventually make the trip.

So it seems the Vikings are about to add a new receiver to their much maligned group. But is that a good thing? Gonzo, over at the Daily Norseman doesn't think so. Personally, I'm not so sure.

Ferguson has a few things going against him, starting with the fact that he's had injury problems the last three years, missing four games in 2004 due to a hit that temporarily paralyzed him, five games in 2005 because of a knee injury and 12 games last year due to foot problems. And when he has been healthy, he hasn't exactly light the world on fire--his best year came in 2003, when he caught 38 passes for 520 yards and 4 TDs.

Here's the thing though--when he is healthy, he has the ability to be a deep threat. He has six catches that went for more than 30 yards for his career, which doesn't sound all that impressive, until you realize that the current career leader on the Vikings roster is Troy Williamson with four.

So would the addition of Robert Ferguson be a huge one? No. However, if he can stay healthy, he'll definitely be an improvement over roster filler like Cortez Hankton. It's better to take a risk on a player with talent than to play it safe with a player that doesn't have any.

Nothing Like a "W"

I started with the Ugly from the Viking's second pre-season game yesterday, which means I'm a bit out of order, but that won't stop us from getting into the good signs from Friday's victory over the Jets. So without further ado, what I liked from the game (aside from the turnovers and the win, of course):

• Chad Greenway is a stud. There was the interception, but that wasn't the only time his coverage was impressive. He was all over Leon Washington like cheese on pizza, white on rice, or Pacifist Viking on an overused cliche. He led the team with four tackles and generally looked like he'd actually played last year. What was that other guy's name? Napoleon something?
  

• For those who've been saying that the addition of Adrian Peterson gave the Vikings one of the best two back tandems in the league--I agree. Jesus--the breakaway speed, the moves (I think he gave Andre Dyson whiplash with that spin move), the punishing of the defense--it was so beautiful. That all being said, I wouldn't mind if he avoided unnecessary contact. I'm still a little worried about his shoulder and the Vikings need Peterson's breakaway ability, something Chester Taylor can't provide (aside from his 95 yard run, Taylor's longest runs were 42 yds and 33 yds and those were the only three rushes he had over thirty yards.)

• Ray Edwards and Brian Robison look like they're going to be the answer to the Vikings' pass rush needs. Robison has two sacks and a forced fumble already and Edwards has constantly been in the backfield. It's already paying dividends on the interior as well by preventing defenses from focusing on Kevin Williams as much, allowing him to pressure the quarterback as well.
  

• Ryan Longwell's 54 yard field goal, combined with his two conversions on two other field goals, were reassuring after he missed a potential game winner from 42 yards in the first preseason game.

• I really, truly enjoyed Kevin Williams destroying the 6'6 310lb D'Brickashaw Ferguson on Darren Sharper's interception return. That might have been my favorite play of the game, aside from Peterson's spin move. Williams just absolutely leveled Ferguson.
  

Tomorrow: The Bad

Note to Coach Childress--Let Tarvaris Play!

Now, I’ve generally been a Brad Childress defender. Generally, I’ve argued that he should be given more than one season before he’s considered a failure. He wouldn’t be the first coach to have a miserable first season followed by a good career, that’s for sure.

That all being said, his decision making on Friday night was pretty much indefensible. He went in with a game plan and he refused to alter it, despite the fact that it was clear that it wasn’t going to accomplish what the team needed.

Which meant that rather than allowing Tarvaris Jackson to throw more than four passes, he stuck to his pre game decision to play Brooks Bollinger in the second quarter, Drew Henson in the third quarter and Tyler Thigpen in the fourth. Which worked out great, since I’m sure he was able to get a lot out of watching Tarvaris completing two passes while dropping back four times (Bobby Wade dropped a catchable pass as well) and Bollinger completing two passes on five pass plays (don’t forget to include his fumble in his passing attempts).

I know the lack of passing attempts was due to outside factors, such as the INT returns for touchdowns and the Jets clock control. That doesn’t mean it isn’t frustrating as all hell watching the worse than mediocre Bollinger replace Tarvaris in the second quarter when Tarvaris needs the experience. The Revolution has two NFL starts—he needs to be playing as much as possible in the preseason, not sitting on the bench watching Bollinger get sacked like some kind of sack prone version of David Carr. And Brad Childress needs to realize that and give Tarvaris the playing time he needs to develop rather than create a needless competition between the Revolution and Brooks Bollinger.

Tomorrow: What I liked on Friday
Tuesday: What I didn't like

Quick Thoughts and an Apology

So...remember when I was "back"? Yeah, that didn't work--I clearly overestimated my ability to post while traveling for business. Hence the two posts followed by nothing.

But now, I'm back home, no longer traveling and have given up on the Twins season (meaning, that, while I'll still be watching their games, I no longer feel it necessary to spend time thinking about them). Hopefully, that means this post won't be an isolated one.

Now, I must admit that I was not able to watch the Vikings' first preseason game (oddly enough, not every hotel has the NFL Network--who knew?), but it looked like it went well. Tarvis Jackson's stat line was good for the one quarter he was in--8/11 for 83 yds and 2 scrambles for 25 yds. Troy Williamson and B0bby Wade didn't do too poorly and the defensive ends (not counting the Vikings' run specialist, Keneci Udeze) put pressure on the quarterbacks, even if they didn't actually bring them down.

It was a good first step on the long and winding path back to the playoffs. And the team takes the second step tonight against the Jets. Here's what I'll be looking for tonight:

• Another accurate performance from Tarvaris. I'm hoping he'll once again complete 65%-70% of his passes and avoid throwing interceptions. The biggest question mark with the Revolution is his accuracy and his decision making. The most important thing in Brad Childress' offense are the receivers catching passes in stride on the short and medium routes so they can do something with it.
• Brooks Bollinger continuing to personify mediocrity. The last thing this team needs is a quarterback controversy. Brad Childress' decision to play Bollinger for a quarter with the first team seems guaranteed to create one. If he's mediocre to bad again, that will hopefully put any possible controversy to rest, so Childress can go back to focusing on developing his young starting quarterback. It makes no sense whatsoever to cut into Tarvaris' playing time, especially if the reason is to give Drew Henson and Tyler Thigpen more playing time.
  
• Can any of the rookie wide receivers make an impact in the game? Sidney Rice had one catch last game, but he was the only one.
  
• The Vikings are currently have five safeties with the talent to start. Are Darren Sharper and Dwight Smith locks for the position, or do Mike Doss, Tank Williams and Greg Blue have a shot to start?
• Finally, I'd like to see Tarvaris lead the first team offense to a touchdown, preferably on a completion to Troy Williamson. That would hopefully quiet the nattering nabobs of negativity, at least for a week.
  

A Dominant Offensive Line?

The Vikings are willing to trust that Tarvaris Jackson can run a competent air attack because of their confidence in their ability to run the ball. And while Chester Taylor is a solid back and Adrian Peterson has all of the talent in the world, the Vikings’ faith in their running game is due to their faith in their offensive line. And considering how much money they’ve invested in their line, they had better be confident in its ability to open massive holes for their skilled backs, not to mention their ability to give Tarvaris Jackson a chance to develop as a quarterback, rather than as a scrambler.

Was the money well spent? Should the Vikings be confident in their offensive line’s abilities? According to this year’s Pro Football Prospectus (PFP), the answer is yes…and no. [Just so everyone knows, I’m going to be drawing from the Prospectus the entire preseason. This book is awesome, with an amazing amount of statistics and is quite well written. Like Baseball Prospectus, it is a required purchase prior to the season.]

As you’d expect, the Vikings’ line was pretty good last year. However, it was not the dominant force the team needs. It was above average in the running game, but well below average in protecting the passer and nowhere near as dominant in the run game as one would think a line with Bryant McKinnie, Steve Hutchinson and Matt Birk would be. Whether that was due to the incompetent quarterbacking, the weak quality of the right side or McKinnie’s broken hand, depends on who you ask. By using PFP’s statistics, however, the answer becomes a little clearer.

Prior to consulting any statistics, my hunch would be that the line’s inability to dominate the pass rush had to do with Brad Johnson’s immobility. Their adjusted sack rate (ASR) , which is calculated by adding sacks and intentional grounding and then dividing that by pass plays and adjusting for situation, ranked 22nd overall at 7.6%. To put that in context, the Colts’ line had the best ASR in the NFL at 3.4%. This stat is also kept for quarterbacks, however, which allows you to better determine whether the sack was the line's fault or the quarterback. And it implies my hunch was incorrect. Brooks Bollinger and Tarvaris Jackson went down frequently, with ASR’s of 24.3% and 8.7% respectively, while Brad Johnson actually had a lower ASR than the offensive line, with a 5.9%. Bollinger’s career ASR is actually worse than David Carr’s and Tarvaris is a rooke that likes to run, neither of which bodes well for a line trying to keep their QB upright.

Even when the quarterback handed the ball off, the Vikings’ line didn’t dominate as much as would be expected. And the problems weren’t on the right side like you'd think. PSP’s charting has broken down the yardage gained depending on where on the line the back ran, recording each run off left end, left tackle, middle, right tackle and right end. One would think that the Vikings’ were completely above average going to the left side, but that isn’t what the statistics show. In reality, there worst outcomes came off of left end, where they averaged 3.00 yds/carry, in comparison to a league average of 4.12. The Vikings were above average on every other part of the line, with their greatest success coming off of right end, where they ran for 5.15 yds/carry, more than a yard better than the 4.08 average. They were also successful off of left tackle (4.85 yds/carry, compared to a 4.36 average) and off of right tackle, at 4.54 yds/carry, with the league averaging 4.21 yds/carry. Up the middle, however, they were middle of the road, gaining 4.33 yd/s carry, almost exactly the same as the 4.32 league average.

This information seems to back up the idea that the right side of the line was the weak point, as well as demonstrate that Matt Birk was not as effective as he was prior to his hernias. Even with Steve Hutchinson to help, running the ball up the middle behind Birk and Artis Hicks was in effective. And running the ball outside to the left, behind a pulling Birk or Hicks was an exercise in futility. But when Hicks or Birk were deemphasized, the Vikings ground game was in the top six, whether it was behind Bryant McKinnie or a pulling Steve Hutchinson. And it seems that Ryan Cook and Marcus Johnson were competent at doing their jobs in the running game.

Based on last year's statistics, it seems the Vikings don't quite have the quality of line they need for their running game to carry their offense. They are set at left tackle and left guard, but their center is aging and losing effectiveness. Not to mention the fact that Artis Hicks wasn’t worth acquiring and Ryan Cook is still a question mark. The Vikings should still be effective running Peterson and Taylor behind McKinnie and Hutchinson, but the reality is that it won’t be enough to remove the pressure from Tarvaris Jackson and his merry band of receivers to keep the offense moving. And it won’t help that they’ll have problems keeping defenders off of Tarvaris either, something that won't help him develop the instincts he needs to determine when to run and when to hang in the pocket.

Back to Lead the Revolucion

Do the analysts and prognosticators have you down? Trying to figure out how an offense with a second year quarterback throwing to no name receivers, two running backs with durability issues and a line with question marks on the right side is going to get a quality defense into the playoffs? Well, I 'm back! And I’m ready to show how you too can realistically and reasonably hope for the Vikings to make the playoffs. (I can tell you’re excited. At least as excited as you are about Adrian Peterson signing only a few days into training camp.)

So lets start with the biggest question the Vikings have—can Tarvaris Jackson play well enough to be an effective quarterback? I say yes. And I’m not the only one (there are quite a few bloggers who are with me). The premiere NFL analysts on the web, the Football Outsiders, have put out their Pro Football Prospuctus for 2007, and based up on their KUBIAK projection system, it seems the Vikings’ decision not to acquire Jeff Garcia, David Carr or Matt Schaub was a good one.

Tarvaris Jackson: 58.5 Completion Perc., 3363 yds 16TD 16INT, 101 rushes, 677yds
Jeff Garcia: 56.7 Completion Perc., 2640 yards 18 TD, 21 INT, 43 rushes, 133yds
David Carr: 60 Completion Perc., 2644yds 17 TD, 19 INT, 42 rushes, 185 yds
Matt Schaub: 62.4 Completion Perc. 3175yds, 15TD 14 INT, 49 rushes 167yds

Well that TD:INT ration isn’t all that great, I don’t think any Vikings fan will be unhappy with a QB that throws 3 less interceptions and 5 more TD. Not to mention 677 rushing yards. Don’t underestimate the effect a scrambling quarterback can have on a secondary. As Michael Vick would tell you (were he not, you know, busy), that doesn’t mean the receivers will catch the ball, however. It’s definitely an offensive weapon that Brad Childress had when Brad Johnson was quarterback.

Is Tarvaris Jackson going to be able to turn the Vikings’ offense from the awful unit it was last year into the Greatest Show on Turf? No. But the Vikings’ defense didn’t need the Greatest Show on Turf to make the playoffs last year. Not even close. All it needed was a competent offense, something the Vikings’ offense was not. One more touchdown could have made the difference in five games the Vikings’ lost last year. Just one more. And as you may remember from earlier in the post, KUBIAK has Tarvaris throwing for five more touchdowns in 2007 than the Vikings’ passing attack generated last year. And that doesn’t even account for the addition of Adrian Peterson. All the offense needs to be is competent. And Tarvaris and Adrian are going to ensure it is

Viva la Tarvaris Revolucion!!