Saturday, December 03, 2005

The Victory Equation, part Deux

Ok class, we're going to be doing some more work with the VVE. Everyone remembers the Vikings Victory Equation, right?

(Success Running the Ball + creating turnovers + Big Plays=Vikings Victory)

Well, Vikings Victory is a relatively new science, and it's constantly evolving. After last week, we learned a few new things:
1) Running the ball isn't as important as we thought; what is important is that the Vikings have success in one of the two parts of the offense.
2) Turnovers are the most important part of the equation. The equation at its core is turnovers=victory.
3) Big plays, like running the ball, aren't that important. In fact Big Plays aren't necessary at all if the offense is clicking.
4) Quality of opponent matters. Crappy teams turn the ball over more often.

So, after using complicated methods known only to those who understand non-linear algebra, the VVE looks like this:


The more turnovers the Vikings force (which is raised to the power of the quality of the opponent, with lower numbers meaning better opponents) multiplied by their success at running or passing (offensive success) plus the number of big plays is equal to the likelihood
of Vikings Victory.

So what's the probability the Vikings will win? I would have to say it's pretty good. The Lions suck (High Q), though their T under Jeff Garcia isn't as high as it is under the Two Turnover Guarantee. They should be able to run the ball successfully, since the Lions are the 7th worth rushing defense, and they allowed 164 rushing yards, including 106 by Bennett the last time the they played the Vikings.

The Vikings should win tomorrow, despite the fact the game is in Detroit. The coaching change is an X-Factor that can't be mathematically computed. The Lions could come out firing, or they could come out flat. It worries me enough that, once again, I'm going to cop out and not pick the winner. If they follow the equation, they'll win. If not, well, I have a feeling no one will be talking about playoffs anymore.

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